[Mafia Game Over] Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark - Mafia Wins!

[lolguy26]

These long WoTs will be the death of me(my phone's actually)

[michellem]

These two huuuuuuge posts killed my browser. Thankfully I think this post moves us over to a new page.

 

Also Rand: "Dang, lost the closest thing we had to confirmed town. " Peace is confirmed town, Ley was assumed town, we had no confirmation until he died...

 

Highly suspicious about Maw getting the Ark from Cloud. And then conveniently loosing it again. My no 1 suspect right now.

 

I would guess that the real staff is in the hands of the mafias now, since no-one has mentioned having it since I had it. It was after I lost it that RTE said the Good Guys had the Ark. So the mafias would know that Cloud had the Ark, and even if they didn't know he was a symp, they knew the Good Guys had the Ark the last time RTE confirmed it, and so it was logical to assume that Cloud was a symp when he said he had it. Thus I think it's more logical that mafia tried to stay away from his train. Maybe one or two on the train for bussing/town-cred.

 

I want to bring up Kronos again. Seems most people have forgotten about him and he's just faded back into the shadows. I still think his role-claim stinks. He got a convenient amount of town cred when Ed flipped town, making his claim seem believable. I still don't buy it; it's too convenient. If he's mafia then he would know that Ed was town, and so it was safe for him to shoot Arez and claim his weird redirector-vig-role. I'm still worried that mafia had a couple of extra kills; it's pretty clear Len was hit by two shots, Ley claimed responsibility for one, no-ones come forward to claim the other shot as theirs. Suspect no 2.

 

Cyan and Hallia I'm still struggling with getting a read on. Cyan was one of those pushing Cloud's lynch from the beginning, she was not on Ishy's lynch and on Talya's lynch. Hallia... Doesn't really contribute much of her own thoughts. She agrees with others and post a bit of fluff. On the fence with both of them.

 

Peace, confirmed town by RTE.

 

Dap; strong town feeling on.

 

Chuckles; suspicious of. I don't think his role sounds like a very pro-town role.

 

Rand: town feeling.

 

 

So to wrap this up: Vote Maw

[WolfbrotherKronos]

My role claim may stink, but it's the truth.

 

Maw's getting the ark from Cloud and then conveniently having it stolen right after he is brought into suspicion is pinging me...like...a lot.

 

vote maw

 

I put a case on chuckles yesterday, but with Cloud's flip I'm willing to hold off a bit, but my eye is still on him.  He could have been bussing.

[lolguy26]

I started the freaking train on cloud, bussing doesn't mean, voting someone on a gut feel, its a stupid move cuz it just makes you (seem) scummy, and tbh(mish) my role isn't really helpful to Town, and I don't have much of a choice in anything but picking the person, so I can't be blamed..

[Leyrann]

 

Go Town. Win this or I'll lynch you all. :P

[Ithillian Turambar]

We need a Replacement for this Game. If you know of anyone who can do this please point them in my direction - or get them to post in the Thread I have made on the Main BT Board. There are BT Points on offer.

 

Thank you

[peacesells]

I can confirm that Maw had the Ark. I also stole it from him...after switching for the good staff. I have 2 votes today.

 

The Ark allows you to will it to someone upon your death. If you don't will it to someone it will go to someone randomly. I really doubt that Cloud let it go random.

 

So -------------------------VOTE MAW.----------------------------

 

 

DM is screwy and it's not giving me any color options..well any options at all.

 

 

 

*post edited by ithi to add red bold

[Ithillian Turambar]

Peace I have edited to show Red Bold.

 

If DM is being mental you can always flip to mobile view and manually code your votes like this:

 

[b][color=red]Vote Turin ;)[/b][/color]

[Ithillian Turambar]

Current Vote Count

 

Maw - 4 (Mish, WBK, Peace, Ark)

 

Not voting - 6 (Cyan, Player, Hallia, Maw, Rand, Chuckles)

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Lynch.

 

Maw is at L-1

 

Deadline is 9pm GMT friday

[peacesells]

I don't have any options. can't switch to mobile view. can't even quick reply.

[peacesells]

And thanks for fixing the vote.

[dapianoplay3r]

Peace I have edited to show Red Bold. If DM is being mental you can always flip to mobile view and manually code your votes like this:

[b][color=red]Vote Turin ;)[/b][/color]

  

Ithi this sometimes has issues. So you have to order them so they are stacked.

So [*b] then finish the last one first [/*b ] [ /color ]

 

That way you won't only get one happening. And the more code you use the more important the order it seems. (With DM atleast)

 

I can confirm that Maw had the Ark. I also stole it from him...after switching for the good staff. I have 2 votes today.

The Ark allows you to will it to someone upon your death. If you don't will it to someone it will go to someone randomly. I really doubt that Cloud let it go random.

So -------------------------VOTE MAW.----------------------------

DM is screwy and it's not giving me any color options..well any options at all.

*post edited by ithi to add red bold

 

This is as good as a guilty in my book. Ill wait for Maws explanation on this before I vote though

But still why would cloud send it to you Maw? I don't think it was WIFOM cos what would be the point. No one makes the Ark holder say they have it, they can just keep quiet and stay hidden.

 

I think maw thought he was getting some town cred lol

 

 

I started the freaking train on cloud, bussing doesn't mean, voting someone on a gut feel, its a stupid move cuz it just makes you (seem) scummy, and tbh(mish) my role isn't really helpful to Town, and I don't have much of a choice in anything but picking the person, so I can't be blamed..

Ok not bussing, gambit then.

 

Who did you use your role on btw?

[Netbattler11]

 

Peace I have edited to show Red Bold. If DM is being mental you can always flip to mobile view and manually code your votes like this:

[b][color=red]Vote Turin ;)[/b][/color]

  

Ithi this sometimes has issues. So you have to order them so they are stacked.

So [*b] then finish the last one first [/*b ] [ /color ]

 

That way you won't only get one happening. And the more code you use the more important the order it seems. (With DM atleast)

 

>I can confirm that Maw had the Ark. I also stole it from him...after switching for the good staff. I have 2 votes today.

The Ark allows you to will it to someone upon your death. If you don't will it to someone it will go to someone randomly. I really doubt that Cloud let it go random.

So -------------------------VOTE MAW.----------------------------

DM is screwy and it's not giving me any color options..well any options at all.

*post edited by ithi to add red bold

 

This is as good as a guilty in my book. Ill wait for Maws explanation on this before I vote though

But still why would cloud send it to you Maw? I don't think it was WIFOM cos what would be the point. No one makes the Ark holder say they have it, they can just keep quiet and stay hidden.

 

I think maw thought he was getting some town cred lol

 

 

I started the freaking train on cloud, bussing doesn't mean, voting someone on a gut feel, its a stupid move cuz it just makes you (seem) scummy, and tbh(mish) my role isn't really helpful to Town, and I don't have much of a choice in anything but picking the person, so I can't be blamed..

Ok not bussing, gambit then.

 

Who did you use your role on btw?

 

I thought that I should mention the fact that I had the ark and then had it stolen. That is all.

 

Since you people appear to be intent on speed-lynching me, I'd better give you my info. I am a Town Voyeur. I target a person each night and see what actions they have been targeted with.

 

Night One: Kae was targeted with one Killing action and one Tracking action. This is why I was fishing for a tracker, as I thought we could vet each other and then act in tandem to out scum. I now believe that the tracker was Song, as I have seen no tracking actions since and no one has claimed the role.

 

Night Two: Lenlo was targeted with two Killing actions and one Blocking action. I at first misread the blocking action as a protect action, and erroneously reported that he had not been roleblocked.

 

Night 3: Roo was targeted with one Killing action. What a shock.

 

Night 4: RTE was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 5: Rand was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 6: Dap was targeted by one Busdriver action and one PR Generator action.

 

The PR generator on Dap interests me, because it means that either two PR generator actions were used or it was bussed away to someone else.

[Ithillian Turambar]

John Snow is replacing Hallia

[peacesells]

Chuckles, who did you target with your PR?

[dapianoplay3r]

Right Maw

He has 60 posts. However Hally, and cyan have only 38 or so. Not really acceptable IMO

 

 

Maws first post. Edited out the spam

In other news, Tiink is making an effort to get the game moving. He may be town just trying to get the game moving, or scum wanting to create a train by looking like he wants to get the game moving. Keep an eye on him, see if his vote shifts. Same for RTE.

 

Oh, and how could I forget? VOTE LEY

  

Come on, Ithi. 'Grabs hat'? Thats impossible to work into a sentence. It couldn't be 'grabs his hat' or something gramatically workable. Actually, would that count? Do the words have to be right next to each other, in that order?

  

Also, how does one 'lurk openly'?

Right so, he starts off by calling Tink a bit scummy and maybe RTE. That in itself isn't much of an issue but if he never mentions it again it will be a ping.

 

The joke vote

 

Then he has 4 spammy posts

 

Edit out the spam again

In other news, everyone seems to just be rolling with the trap. Its a very Ithiful, flavorful thing to do in this game. I'm still not seeing a whole lot of actual game-related content yet.

I read this like he was judging those who were just rolling with it, but then he says its very ithi and rolls with it himself. Could potentially be fishing for people who may know more about the trap though

Then the game related content thing. This being his second game related post and Rands scummy vote on Ed already of happened its a little rich and hypocritical

 

 

Looks like things are heating up. I'm not really seeing the whole deal with rand.

Now a page or two later he appears with that the game is heating up. But still doesn't see the deal with Rand

He's pretty non committal and hasn't mentioned RTE or Tiink again.

 

Then he brings up the Peace bloody thing and calls it a mat PR. I have a bit of a go with him about it

Not all of it needs to be quoted so this is the important part really

  

 

Include a lol or something next time. Skimmers will see that and get the wrong idea, it's not helpful to the town when that happens

Question about PR was serious. Mat suggestion was joking. Thought he might have gotten one as part of his role.

Or if you knew there was a PR giver that hadn't used his role you would know he was lying

I know it's tenuous but it occurred to me

 

He removes his vote on Ley. Mentioning that it was a joke

 

 

If so, it's an odd one. I can't remember anyone from Raiders that spoke like that.

Huh. Look who also calls peace out

Ill defiantly have to do a chuckles case next 

 

Holy crap ithi, hope everything is okay.

 

Peace, you might want to start offering explanations for what the hell you're doing. Now.

Them Maw starts going after Peace rather strongly. It does seem strange how strongly

 

Maw then does a giant green post to alert people that the votes needed to lynch are less. So proud

 

Maw defends Ley for his joke vote. Apparently it's a thing between them

He continues to defend Ley from Arez. I don't see much in it so I'm not going to quote it.

Around the 370th post if you want to read it yourself

 

In other news, I don't buy the symp thing. Seems like a real reach to me.

So the symp thing raises its head with Maw. He also discounts it

 

 

 

 

I was thinking of this too in that I don't recall symps being able to see Mafia QT. That and dice seems so sure of it.

 

This pings me. Quite a bit. That and the case itself is pretty weak... Vote Dice.

 

 

I believe they can, actually. Might depend on the variant.

 

 

 

With that dice is now the top train. It's gaining traction fast...

 

How is it gaining traction fast? Its 2 people!

 

unvote Vote Dice

 

Now its 3 people. Woop dee doo.

 

I think Dice is the best lynch we have so far. His trying to link people and the way he has been playing can give us alot of information on D1 and possibly a scum.

Actually, it WAS three. Now it is four. Did you miss the giant neon green letters?

 

Maw starts having a go at Len.

This is their interaction continued...

 

I'm not sure how I feel about the dice lynch. On the one hand, i see the logic, but... It just feels really insubstantial and opportunistic to me.

But first this. Keeping his options open

 

 

I meant people piling the votes on, not the number of voters itself. Sorry for not being clear.

We got 1/3 of the votes needed within a page. I'd call that pretty damn fast.

  

 

 

 

That's one hell of a flimsy save if I ever saw one

Especially when we have a reduced number of votes needed for lynch

 

Flimsy save? What am I saving? Im just explaining what I meant by my comment.

 

Also 10 is still not a small number. 4 is nowhere near 10.

reduced =/= small.

There is the little interaction, and as you can see I agree. It was flimsy and poorly worded.

I can't really fault him on this stuff

 

Maw then agrees that tiink is drunk posting. No more Tiink hate it seems

 

---

Posting cos Maw has revealed. Commenting on that now

[dapianoplay3r]

Welcome Snow.

Maw. I've had no PM from ithi telling me that I have a PR

 

Your N1 action fits

Your N2 also fits, so Talya or Cloud blocked that and we can't prove it

N3 fits

N4 fits

N5 fits

 

So N6. Bus driver and a PR on me

I've had no PR so it's gone to the other end of the Bus driver

[Turin Turambar]

Current Vote Count

 

 

Maw - 4 (Mish, Kronos, Peace, Ark )

 

Currently Not Voting - 6 ( Cyan, Dap, Snow, Maw, Rand, Chuckles)

 

 

 

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

 

The Day 7 Deadline is 9pm GMT Saturday 23rd March.

 

Day 7 Deadline

[RandA lThor]

 

 

Peace I have edited to show Red Bold. If DM is being mental you can always flip to mobile view and manually code your votes like this:

[b][color=red]Vote Turin ;)[/b][/color]

  

Ithi this sometimes has issues. So you have to order them so they are stacked.

So [*b] then finish the last one first [/*b ] [ /color ]

 

That way you won't only get one happening. And the more code you use the more important the order it seems. (With DM atleast)

 

>>I can confirm that Maw had the Ark. I also stole it from him...after switching for the good staff. I have 2 votes today.

The Ark allows you to will it to someone upon your death. If you don't will it to someone it will go to someone randomly. I really doubt that Cloud let it go random.

So -------------------------VOTE MAW.----------------------------

DM is screwy and it's not giving me any color options..well any options at all.

*post edited by ithi to add red bold

lockquote> 

This is as good as a guilty in my book. Ill wait for Maws explanation on this before I vote though

But still why would cloud send it to you Maw? I don't think it was WIFOM cos what would be the point. No one makes the Ark holder say they have it, they can just keep quiet and stay hidden.

 

I think maw thought he was getting some town cred lol

 

 

>I started the freaking train on cloud, bussing doesn't mean, voting someone on a gut feel, its a stupid move cuz it just makes you (seem) scummy, and tbh(mish) my role isn't really helpful to Town, and I don't have much of a choice in anything but picking the person, so I can't be blamed..

Ok not bussing, gambit then.

 

Who did you use your role on btw?

 

I thought that I should mention the fact that I had the ark and then had it stolen. That is all.

 

Since you people appear to be intent on speed-lynching me, I'd better give you my info. I am a Town Voyeur. I target a person each night and see what actions they have been targeted with.

 

Night One: Kae was targeted with one Killing action and one Tracking action. This is why I was fishing for a tracker, as I thought we could vet each other and then act in tandem to out scum. I now believe that the tracker was Song, as I have seen no tracking actions since and no one has claimed the role.

 

Night Two: Lenlo was targeted with two Killing actions and one Blocking action. I at first misread the blocking action as a protect action, and erroneously reported that he had not been roleblocked.

 

Night 3: Roo was targeted with one Killing action. What a shock.

 

Night 4: RTE was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 5: Rand was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 6: Dap was targeted by one Busdriver action and one PR Generator action.

 

The PR generator on Dap interests me, because it means that either two PR generator actions were used or it was bussed away to someone else.

 

 

Wow, actually this gives us a lot of information, and there is no way you could have known about the PR, so lets ask Lolguy.  Also, mafia voyeur wouldn't make too much sense, because usually voyeur is useful for seeing what kind of kills or so on were used on a player.  Also I def see the tracker and voyeur combo possibility.  Anyways, there are a lot of interesting things in here.  FIrst of all, there were two kills on Len.  Two explanations here, since no one claimed, it has to be anti town.  That either means that mafia got some form of an instakill, a devious tactic by Ithi in a game like this if that occurred, or there is some sort of third party out there.

 

So just to clarify

 

2 kills on night 1 (but 3 shots because Ed fired on Darthe and he lost his BPV)

 

2 kills on night 2 (but 3 shots fired because two on Len)

 

2 kills on night 3

 

1 kill on night 4

 

1 kill on night 5

 

1 kill on night 6

 

We know that Ley was one of the people to shoot Len on night 2.  We know that Ed fired on Darthe on night 1.  We know that WBK fired on Ed and had it redirected (supposedly) to Arez on night 3.  And one shot per night for mafia.  This leaves us 2 unconfirmed shots, 1 on night 1 and another on night 2.  From my memory, I don't remember any other 1-shot vigs.  Therefore, there are 2 shots in the open right now, and WBKs which we cannot decide on yet.  If you notice, this adds up to 3, a perfectly common "x-shot" number, for example a 3-shot SK, or perhaps the more unlikely 3 instakills given to a mafia team.  So I think that WBK might be an SK with 3 shots.  The problem with this theory is that he wouldn't know that Ed was town, so he would still have the actual town redirector shot, which could be slightly useful.  Or what I think is a much more likely theory, that there was a 2-shot SK or a 3-shot SK out there that either has used all his shots or is saving one for the end of the game (respectively). then the mafia team was given one instakill, and then with the busdriver role that was discovered, WBK could have shot Ed and then the bus driver could have redirected it, and then in case there were any voyeurs or so on, it would look real.  However, the problem with that theory is that is the voyeur would see the busdriver role in their mod message and would immediately get suspicious.  Anyways, at least this tells us the likely existence of a third party because I think that it is highly unlikely that there are 3 1-shot vigs uncounted for, or that mafia got 3 instakills were given to the mafia.  Oh wait, I forgot, Peace was a 1-shot vig wasn't he?  That accounts for another shot, and I think he shot night 1.  This gives us an unconfirmed shot on night 2, and WBK's shot explanation on night 3. This changes things a lot, sorry about the above, don't want to delete it though since it is still useful.  Now when we look at this, we see only one unconfirmed shot.  Now if we assume that WBK is town, then we either have another 1-shot vig, a mafia instakill, or some sort of x-shot third party (which would also be possible with WBK as mafia).  If WBK is mafia, then mafia has to have two instakills, or one instakill and an x-shot.  Its fairly common to have a 1-shot SK, however this is usually used near the end of the game so that the SK can use it when he/she really needs to and get rid of someone.  So if there is an SK, I would say it is someone that doesn't know how to use a 1-shot SK, and therefore would probably be someone newer to the game (no offense, just stating what I'm thinking about).  So again, lets assume 6 antitown in the general 1 to 4 ratio of anti town to total players, we see 3 scum, 2 of them symps dead.  Very possible to have 2 more scum and one third party, which is what I think unless we have another 1-shot vig.  If we do have another 1-shot vig, then I think its 2 more scum.  So then we can probably assume 2 scum, which means that we have 9 people alive, and scum needs 4 alive and none of themselves dead to win.  This means that if we lynch wrong today, and they kill 1 person (general rate at this point), we will have 2 mislynches possible until we have to lynch 2 mafia.  So this is currently our list of players and what we know about them right now.

 

1. Chuckles - Compulsive PR giver - unsure about role, but leaning town because mafia probably wouldn't claim that

2. Cyan - Know absolutely nothing about role

3. John Snow - Know absolutely nothing about role

4. Player - Know absolutely nothing about role

5. WBK - Claims 1-shot vig who's shot wouldn't hit a town the first time, suspicious

6. Peace - 1-shot vig, had the fake staff, now has the real one as well as the ark, practically confirmed town

7. Maw - Claims town voyeur, most likely telling the truth

8. Mish - Claims used to have staff, didn't know it was fake or real

9. Rand - I know absolutely everything about my role.  Or did I claim and forget about it....

 

Anyways, here is the list that is left that I think I would be willing to lynch today, just based off of role information or lack thereof

1. Cyan

2. John Snow

3. Player (hopefully not, he makes good cases )

4. WBK

 

As you can see, we have a fairly short list of initial thoughts, and if this list is all anti town, then we can easily afford just going down the list.  However, I would like not to take any risks if possible, so I am still going to look at their play and what to do.  Anyways, if Player is mafia, then he has pulled some insane gambits which I don't think is honestly realistic.  Also, I think that if Hallia was mafia, teammates like Ishy and Talya would have given her a lot more game info to put on the thread, yet since she hasn't been doing that, I honestly think she is town without any more information than the rest of us.  So I am looking a lot more at Cyan and WBK.  WBK is risky because of his claim, but it is very iffy, so not sure. Cyan I have honestly no idea on, and just have gotten her through process of elimination, so those are my top 2 possible votes right now.  If both of them are antitown, I am currently thinking WBK as third party and Cyan as mafia, and then we have the last mafia left.  Honestly, that might be Player and he's just been twisting us around his little pinky this entire time. :P

 

Out of the rest of the claims the importance I put from least likely to be town to most likely are

1. Mish

2. Chuckles

3. Maw

4. Peace

 

Obviously, fmpov, I am town.  Anyways, thats my analysis on Maw's second night results.

 

Also on night 1, it could have been Dice as well, and if anyone is tracker, if you could out yourself, because right now it is important to know all you know before you accidentally get killed, and we have more confirmed town.  

 

Finally night 6, Dap gets targeted by a bus driver and another person.  Now there is a lot of analysis to look at this as well.  First of all, lets assume Dap is town.  If he was town, (and mafia is busdriver) and we know that we have no more cop, mafia's incentive to redirect from Dap to someone else would be either to confuse town and go random, or to busdrive to another mafia (which for any of the roles that we have would be pretty useless), or to redirect anything that happens to Dap to another townie.  I don't get the point of this too much.  However, if Dap was mafia, teammates would busdrive him to get actions off of him, and then put them on someone who's town.  However, Dap could be that town, and someone else could be the mafia, so that doesn't actually prove too much.  This night the only actions that the mafia were sure of was staffs looking at who has the ark, because they didn't know about voyeur at all, so to mess up results with the staff being used, one end of the busdriving had to be involved with the person who had the ark (who was mafia).  So basically, there is a 50% chance that Dap had the ark and was mafia as well.  Just something to remember, that if we are ever lynching out of pure probability, Dap is pretty suspicious.

 

Also Mish the reason I was asking for who had the ark was exactly that.  If no one answered, then we would know that mafia had it.  But why would mafia steal it from themselves.  That would make Maw most likely town.  I wasn't just doing it to figure out who had it.  

 

So since this is a really long post...

 

tl;dr - there is no tl;dr, read the whole thing.  Honestly, if you do, hopefully you'll figure out something in the logic that I didn't, so read through the whole thing.  Oh and for all of you people that have phones that are destroyed by large posts, sorry!!!!!!

 

And this is probably the longest post I've made in mafia without using a bunch of quotes.

 

Also, who has the PR right now?  Also everyone post with a role claim, I think its time to mass role claim.  Remember to not claim character!!!  I may have already said this, but I am vanilla town.  I think I did now that I think about it, when we were having the first discussion about good guys and bad guys in our roles.  

 

I think I've gone over everything so far, so yeah.

[RandA lThor]

Chuckles, who did you target with your PR?

 

Peace I would unvote just in case, he is at L-1 right now, if he was lying, you can always vote him later

[RandA lThor]

Quoting messed up, everything that it says is Mawthtex's is actually mine.

[RandA lThor]

 

 

Peace I have edited to show Red Bold. If DM is being mental you can always flip to mobile view and manually code your votes like this:

[b][color=red]Vote Turin ;)[/b][/color]

  

Ithi this sometimes has issues. So you have to order them so they are stacked.

So [*b] then finish the last one first [/*b ] [ /color ]

 

That way you won't only get one happening. And the more code you use the more important the order it seems. (With DM atleast)

 

>>I can confirm that Maw had the Ark. I also stole it from him...after switching for the good staff. I have 2 votes today.

The Ark allows you to will it to someone upon your death. If you don't will it to someone it will go to someone randomly. I really doubt that Cloud let it go random.

So -------------------------VOTE MAW.----------------------------

DM is screwy and it's not giving me any color options..well any options at all.

*post edited by ithi to add red bold

lockquote> 

This is as good as a guilty in my book. Ill wait for Maws explanation on this before I vote though

But still why would cloud send it to you Maw? I don't think it was WIFOM cos what would be the point. No one makes the Ark holder say they have it, they can just keep quiet and stay hidden.

 

I think maw thought he was getting some town cred lol

 

 

>I started the freaking train on cloud, bussing doesn't mean, voting someone on a gut feel, its a stupid move cuz it just makes you (seem) scummy, and tbh(mish) my role isn't really helpful to Town, and I don't have much of a choice in anything but picking the person, so I can't be blamed..

Ok not bussing, gambit then.

 

Who did you use your role on btw?

 

I thought that I should mention the fact that I had the ark and then had it stolen. That is all.

 

Since you people appear to be intent on speed-lynching me, I'd better give you my info. I am a Town Voyeur. I target a person each night and see what actions they have been targeted with.

 

Night One: Kae was targeted with one Killing action and one Tracking action. This is why I was fishing for a tracker, as I thought we could vet each other and then act in tandem to out scum. I now believe that the tracker was Song, as I have seen no tracking actions since and no one has claimed the role.

 

Night Two: Lenlo was targeted with two Killing actions and one Blocking action. I at first misread the blocking action as a protect action, and erroneously reported that he had not been roleblocked.

 

Night 3: Roo was targeted with one Killing action. What a shock.

 

Night 4: RTE was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 5: Rand was targeted by nothing.

 

Night 6: Dap was targeted by one Busdriver action and one PR Generator action.

 

The PR generator on Dap interests me, because it means that either two PR generator actions were used or it was bussed away to someone else.

 

 

 

Wow, actually this gives us a lot of information, and there is no way you could have known about the PR, so lets ask Lolguy.  Also, mafia voyeur wouldn't make too much sense, because usually voyeur is useful for seeing what kind of kills or so on were used on a player.  Also I def see the tracker and voyeur combo possibility.  Anyways, there are a lot of interesting things in here.  FIrst of all, there were two kills on Len.  Two explanations here, since no one claimed, it has to be anti town.  That either means that mafia got some form of an instakill, a devious tactic by Ithi in a game like this if that occurred, or there is some sort of third party out there.

 

So just to clarify

 

2 kills on night 1 (but 3 shots because Ed fired on Darthe and he lost his BPV)

 

2 kills on night 2 (but 3 shots fired because two on Len)

 

2 kills on night 3

 

1 kill on night 4

 

1 kill on night 5

 

1 kill on night 6

 

We know that Ley was one of the people to shoot Len on night 2.  We know that Ed fired on Darthe on night 1.  We know that WBK fired on Ed and had it redirected (supposedly) to Arez on night 3.  And one shot per night for mafia.  This leaves us 2 unconfirmed shots, 1 on night 1 and another on night 2.  From my memory, I don't remember any other 1-shot vigs.  Therefore, there are 2 shots in the open right now, and WBKs which we cannot decide on yet.  If you notice, this adds up to 3, a perfectly common "x-shot" number, for example a 3-shot SK, or perhaps the more unlikely 3 instakills given to a mafia team.  So I think that WBK might be an SK with 3 shots.  The problem with this theory is that he wouldn't know that Ed was town, so he would still have the actual town redirector shot, which could be slightly useful.  Or what I think is a much more likely theory, that there was a 2-shot SK or a 3-shot SK out there that either has used all his shots or is saving one for the end of the game (respectively). then the mafia team was given one instakill, and then with the busdriver role that was discovered, WBK could have shot Ed and then the bus driver could have redirected it, and then in case there were any voyeurs or so on, it would look real.  However, the problem with that theory is that is the voyeur would see the busdriver role in their mod message and would immediately get suspicious.  Anyways, at least this tells us the likely existence of a third party because I think that it is highly unlikely that there are 3 1-shot vigs uncounted for, or that mafia got 3 instakills were given to the mafia.  Oh wait, I forgot, Peace was a 1-shot vig wasn't he?  That accounts for another shot, and I think he shot night 1.  This gives us an unconfirmed shot on night 2, and WBK's shot explanation on night 3. This changes things a lot, sorry about the above, don't want to delete it though since it is still useful.  Now when we look at this, we see only one unconfirmed shot.  Now if we assume that WBK is town, then we either have another 1-shot vig, a mafia instakill, or some sort of x-shot third party (which would also be possible with WBK as mafia).  If WBK is mafia, then mafia has to have two instakills, or one instakill and an x-shot.  Its fairly common to have a 1-shot SK, however this is usually used near the end of the game so that the SK can use it when he/she really needs to and get rid of someone.  So if there is an SK, I would say it is someone that doesn't know how to use a 1-shot SK, and therefore would probably be someone newer to the game (no offense, just stating what I'm thinking about).  So again, lets assume 6 antitown in the general 1 to 4 ratio of anti town to total players, we see 3 scum, 2 of them symps dead.  Very possible to have 2 more scum and one third party, which is what I think unless we have another 1-shot vig.  If we do have another 1-shot vig, then I think its 2 more scum.  So then we can probably assume 2 scum, which means that we have 9 people alive, and scum needs 4 alive and none of themselves dead to win.  This means that if we lynch wrong today, and they kill 1 person (general rate at this point), we will have 2 mislynches possible until we have to lynch 2 mafia.  So this is currently our list of players and what we know about them right now.

 

1. Chuckles - Compulsive PR giver - unsure about role, but leaning town because mafia probably wouldn't claim that

2. Cyan - Know absolutely nothing about role

3. John Snow - Know absolutely nothing about role

4. Player - Know absolutely nothing about role

5. WBK - Claims 1-shot vig who's shot wouldn't hit a town the first time, suspicious

6. Peace - 1-shot vig, had the fake staff, now has the real one as well as the ark, practically confirmed town

7. Maw - Claims town voyeur, most likely telling the truth

8. Mish - Claims used to have staff, didn't know it was fake or real

9. Rand - I know absolutely everything about my role.    Or did I claim and forget about it.... 

 

Anyways, here is the list that is left that I think I would be willing to lynch today, just based off of role information or lack thereof

1. Cyan

2. John Snow

3. Player (hopefully not, he makes good cases  )

4. WBK

 

As you can see, we have a fairly short list of initial thoughts, and if this list is all anti town, then we can easily afford just going down the list.  However, I would like not to take any risks if possible, so I am still going to look at their play and what to do.  Anyways, if Player is mafia, then he has pulled some insane gambits which I don't think is honestly realistic.  Also, I think that if Hallia was mafia, teammates like Ishy and Talya would have given her a lot more game info to put on the thread, yet since she hasn't been doing that, I honestly think she is town without any more information than the rest of us.  So I am looking a lot more at Cyan and WBK.  WBK is risky because of his claim, but it is very iffy, so not sure. Cyan I have honestly no idea on, and just have gotten her through process of elimination, so those are my top 2 possible votes right now.  If both of them are antitown, I am currently thinking WBK as third party and Cyan as mafia, and then we have the last mafia left.  Honestly, that might be Player and he's just been twisting us around his little pinky this entire time. :P

 

Out of the rest of the claims the importance I put from least likely to be town to most likely are

1. Mish

2. Chuckles

3. Maw

4. Peace

 

Obviously, fmpov, I am town.  Anyways, thats my analysis on Maw's second night results.

 

Also on night 1, it could have been Dice as well, and if anyone is tracker, if you could out yourself, because right now it is important to know all you know before you accidentally get killed, and we have more confirmed town.  

 

Finally night 6, Dap gets targeted by a bus driver and another person.  Now there is a lot of analysis to look at this as well.  First of all, lets assume Dap is town.  If he was town, (and mafia is busdriver) and we know that we have no more cop, mafia's incentive to redirect from Dap to someone else would be either to confuse town and go random, or to busdrive to another mafia (which for any of the roles that we have would be pretty useless), or to redirect anything that happens to Dap to another townie.  I don't get the point of this too much.  However, if Dap was mafia, teammates would busdrive him to get actions off of him, and then put them on someone who's town.  However, Dap could be that town, and someone else could be the mafia, so that doesn't actually prove too much.  This night the only actions that the mafia were sure of was staffs looking at who has the ark, because they didn't know about voyeur at all, so to mess up results with the staff being used, one end of the busdriving had to be involved with the person who had the ark (who was mafia).  So basically, there is a 50% chance that Dap had the ark and was mafia as well.  Just something to remember, that if we are ever lynching out of pure probability, Dap is pretty suspicious.

 

Also Mish the reason I was asking for who had the ark was exactly that.  If no one answered, then we would know that mafia had it.  But why would mafia steal it from themselves.  That would make Maw most likely town.  I wasn't just doing it to figure out who had it.  

 

So since this is a really long post...

 

tl;dr - there is no tl;dr, read the whole thing.    Honestly, if you do, hopefully you'll figure out something in the logic that I didn't, so read through the whole thing.  Oh and for all of you people that have phones that are destroyed by large posts, sorry!!!!!!

 

And this is probably the longest post I've made in mafia without using a bunch of quotes.

 

Also, who has the PR right now?  Also everyone post with a role claim, I think its time to mass role claim.  Remember to not claim character!!!  I may have already said this, but I am vanilla town.  I think I did now that I think about it, when we were having the first discussion about good guys and bad guys in our roles.  

 

I think I've gone over everything so far, so yeah.

[RandA lThor]

Damn it keeps messing up.

 

Whatever, I give up.

[dapianoplay3r]

The lack of a ninja hammer is something to note

 

Rand ill get to this soon. Just subbed in another game so I've got a catch up read to do there first

[michellem]

Ok I'm in just five minutes, I've gone to bed but gotta down some painkillers to actually be able to sleep... I'm the tracker. I'll give you my results in the morning. Now I'm gonna stumble back to bed