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Barid Bel Medar

The Seanchan: Past, Present and Future.

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TGH Chapter 4:  Morgase was one of the few rulers to openly admit to an Aes Sedai councilor; almost all had one, but few admitted it.

 

Clearly having an AS councilor is a bad thing in most countries. And I still believe that if backwater towns in even Andor dislike AS enough to call them darkfriends after the AS saved them from a horde of trollocs, the general populace of most of the world would be against them. This is prior to news spreading about TG of course, that will probably have an effect.

Not a bad thing.  I suspect it is more along the lines of them not wanting the public to believe the rulers are being controlled by the white tower, which would almost certainly be said of anyone who openly had an Aes Sedai councilor.  Morgase had gone to the WT herself, so such rumors are less likely about her than about other rulers.

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Morgase had gone to the WT herself, so such rumors are less likely about her than about other rulers.

Or, to flip it around, such rumours are inevitable because she was tower-trained. She might as well have an open Aes Sedai advisor: everyone will assume that she has at least one in any case, and it makes the White Tower's presence less sinister.

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TG has brought them a ton of gratitude and prestige amongst common folk and they can surely capitalize on that.

Is there a reason the WT would have more gratitude from common folk than the other groups that participated in the LB? If not, the Seanchan participated too, and actually came to the rescue at one point. Additionally, there have been a few comments throughout the books that after the initial occupation by the Seanchan life carried on as normal (apart from collaring of channelers), and was even better in some ways.

We do have comments about stability and we also have comments from people unhappy. There is also that little thing of two of the countries they conquered being in open revolt by the time TG came around so no. Seanchan stability we know is mainly propaganda. People on their continent were not content as evidenced by the "numerous revolts" Karede mentions and Seekers talking about "sedition" in various districts.

 

As for WT prestige commoners will hear AS where with the DR at SG, the Amyrlin gave her life to heal the pattern and kill a forsaken, how many thousands were healed and lives saved on the battlefiedls and in Mayene. Add to that now moving forward WFs working on the weather, an AS Queen creating terangreal for the greater good, kin working throughout the world in the open now.

 

Again with every channeling group in the world proving on a day to day basis the Seanchan way is a lie, combined with everything else I said aside from the one sentence you quoted there is no way the Seanchan win that PR battle.

Edited by Suttree

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Can someone help me with this! Where did all of these A'DAM come from? There hasn't been a person who can create terangreal in sometime and I thought that talent was somewhat rare. So, are we to believe the seanchan produced these or they all came from the forsaken or what? Is this explained and I missed it. Seems like these things grow on trees back home.

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Can someone help me with this! Where did all of these A'DAM come from? There hasn't been a person who can create terangreal in sometime and I thought that talent was somewhat rare. So, are we to believe the seanchan produced these or they all came from the forsaken or what? Is this explained and I missed it. Seems like these things grow on trees back home.

The Seanchan know how to replicate the female a'dam(they all come from copies of the orginal made by a female channeler who was trying to curry favor with Luthair). Per RJ that is the only thing they know how to make.

Edited by Suttree

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Can someone help me with this! Where did all of these A'DAM come from? There hasn't been a person who can create terangreal in sometime and I thought that talent was somewhat rare. So, are we to believe the seanchan produced these or they all came from the forsaken or what? Is this explained and I missed it. Seems like these things grow on trees back home.

 

It's mentioned in TGH that it's a rare talent, but there are Damane who make A'dam.

 

As to the future of the Seanchan: I imagine Tuon of KoD would eventually come to accept getting rid of Damane, given all she said, and given the treaty making it difficult to keep any new Damane (while neighbours may think Damane are a decent choice for those damn chanellers, how many parents would sell their child into slavery when they can send her off to become either a great leader in the WT or a great person in the kin?)

Fortuona, alas, seems a lot more set in her ways.

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At least some people are going to be seduced by Seanchan propaganda, despite all contrary evidence.  We can see this in the real world with the Obama "birther" conspiracy, and also a number of people here kept saying that Taim was Demandred even after Demandred failed to recognise Flinn at the cleansing.  As a result, I think the Seanchan will still be able to recruit damane.

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At least some people are going to be seduced by Seanchan propaganda, despite all contrary evidence.  We can see this in the real world with the Obama "birther" conspiracy, and also a number of people here kept saying that Taim was Demandred even after Demandred failed to recognise Flinn at the cleansing.  As a result, I think the Seanchan will still be able to recruit damane.

That's a bad analogy. Sure, like the birthers, there may be some people who subscribe to the Seanchan ideology. But the question is not whether a fringe element will believe this way, but whether the majority will. BEcause trust me, no amount of propaganda is going to convince any sane channeler to give up their freedom. And no country is going to invite revolt by sending channelers to the Seanchan to satisfy a fringe element, just like the birther phenomenon did not result in Obama losing the election.

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Remember that Cadsuane is now the Amyrlin.  Some people here disliked Egwene, but I thought she was OK.  Cads as Amyrlin could well be arrogant, and cause the Aes Sedai to lose credence, thus making it easier for Seanchan propaganda.

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Does the Dragon's Peace allow for free migration across Randland?  If not, the Seanchan could seal their borders to any suspected marath'damane trying to leave.

 

Also, the Seanchan are going to be allowed to sell the so-called virtues of being damane, even to Tar Valon.  Obviously, the Aes Sedai will strongly argue against this propaganda, but some people are going to be won over by Seanchan propaganda.  There are plenty of nutty things many people believe today, so you can't argue that no one will believe the Seanchan.

The Seanchan can't seal the borders to damane, that would seem to go against the deal made.

 

It will be a PR battle but the WT has dealt with that in the past with the Children. TG has brought them a ton of gratitude and prestige amongst common folk and they can surely capitalize on that. The BT who also came off looking very well will surely argue against Seanchan propaganda as well. Once channelers start centers of learning, healing and offering travelling for trade it really will be a no brainer. They will be able to provide living proof that the Seanchan are wrong. Keep in mind that although AS  lost  a bit over half their number they still have around a 1,000 novices. Now that travelling is widespread they will be recruiting everywhere from a wider base due to the new rules Egwene put in place. With the changes from the channeling exchange program they will be more integrated into society. The WT will very soon be bursting at the scenes and it is hard to imagine the Seanchan preachers being met with anything other than incredulous disbelief.

 

It will also be interesting to see how the chance of freedom changes the thoughts of those leashed, especially WFs, Kin and the like.

 

There was a verbal deal with Egwene which Tuon will break in a second if she thinks even one Damane would leave her empire.I doubt the Egwene deal will go forward much.

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Remember that Cadsuane is now the Amyrlin. Some people here disliked Egwene, but I thought she was OK. Cads as Amyrlin could well be arrogant, and cause the Aes Sedai to lose credence, thus making it easier for Seanchan propaganda.

We constantly see Cadsuane size up each situation and deal with people accordingly based on their actions. She doesn't suffer fools and diplomacy is not always her strong suit but if you have earned her respect she has your back no matter what. She has a lifetime of real workd experience and per RJ is "remarkably adaptable". She has propped up thrones, shaped rulers and knows "what must be endured, can be endured". Not a chance that she makes matters better for the Seanchan. She is quite literally a throwback to what AS should be. Further do to her age she will not be Amyrlin for long. She will improve the situation and then hand it off to the person best suited for the role. We know she has coached AS to become great Amyrlins in the past and she will do so again. I would be really interested to see if Cads becoming Amyrlin was in RJs notes or if it was a Brandon invention however. Edited by Suttree

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Remember that Cadsuane is now the Amyrlin. Some people here disliked Egwene, but I thought she was OK. Cads as Amyrlin could well be arrogant, and cause the Aes Sedai to lose credence, thus making it easier for Seanchan propaganda.

We constantly see Cadsuane size up each situation and deal with people accordingly based on their actions. She doesn't suffer fools and diplomacy is not always her strong suit but if you have earned her respect she has your back no matter what. She has a lifetime of real workd experience and per RJ is "remarkably adaptable". She has propped up thrones, shaped rulers and knows "what must be endured, can be endured". Not a chance that she makes matters better for the Seanchan. She is quite literally a throwback to what AS should be. Further do to her age she will not be Amyrlin for long. She will improve the situation and then hand it off to the person best suited for the role. We know she has coached AS to become great Amyrlins in the past and she will do so again. I would be really interested to see if Cads becoming Amyrlin was in RJs notes or if it was a Brandon invention however.

Brandon made clear in his twitter that this was the plan, and she does indeed become Amyrlin. It is also very very fitting, and not the kind of end I can see Brandon imagining for her on his own. 

 

And I wouldn't be too sure that she won't last forever. She may in fact be the reason the AS give up the Oaths. I know Brandon said they don't, but he wasn't certain, and the more I think on it, the less sense it makes.

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Remember that Cadsuane is now the Amyrlin. Some people here disliked Egwene, but I thought she was OK. Cads as Amyrlin could well be arrogant, and cause the Aes Sedai to lose credence, thus making it easier for Seanchan propaganda.

We constantly see Cadsuane size up each situation and deal with people accordingly based on their actions. She doesn't suffer fools and diplomacy is not always her strong suit but if you have earned her respect she has your back no matter what. She has a lifetime of real workd experience and per RJ is "remarkably adaptable". She has propped up thrones, shaped rulers and knows "what must be endured, can be endured". Not a chance that she makes matters better for the Seanchan. She is quite literally a throwback to what AS should be. Further do to her age she will not be Amyrlin for long. She will improve the situation and then hand it off to the person best suited for the role. We know she has coached AS to become great Amyrlins in the past and she will do so again. I would be really interested to see if Cads becoming Amyrlin was in RJs notes or if it was a Brandon invention however.
Brandon made clear in his twitter that this was the plan, and she does indeed become Amyrlin. It is also very very fitting, and not the kind of end I can see Brandon imagining for her on his own.

 

And I wouldn't be too sure that she won't last forever. She may in fact be the reason the AS give up the Oaths. I know Brandon said they don't, but he wasn't certain, and the more I think on it, the less sense it makes.

Interesting. I knew he said Cads became Amyrlin but didn't realize he said that had been outlined by RJ.

 

As for duration if the AS continue to use the Oath Rod as its been said they do, not sure how she could last all that long? That combined with bettering those around her being one of her driving character traits would seem to suggest she grooms someone for the job. Would be nice to get some clarity around the three oaths though.

Edited by Suttree

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There's just one problem with Tuon going back on her promise to Egwene...Mat was there when it was made. It was strongly implied that if she broke her word, he'd leave. Since his assistence is absolutely necessary for he to succeed in re-taking Seanchan, i'd say she has a powerful incentive to keep her word.  The real test will come when the Aiel ask for their Wise One's back..Tuon may be tempted to say no and then what happens?

 

tud

Edited by Tud

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It seems likely to me that the Wheel wills what it wills.  In this case, it wills a people who were proud and strong at the Last Battle be brought low, stripped of everything they held to be important, and eventually exterminated, while another people, enemies of the first, also proud and strong at the Last Battle, grows and flourishes to eventually rule the world (or nearly anyway).  Aviendha saw through the columns that the Aiel were the people to be exterminated, while the Seanchan come to rule, because of their exclusion from the Dragon's Peace.  Now that they are included, and as de facto rulers of the non-Seanchan Westlands, while the Seanchan are prevented from making war or capturing unwilling damane, it seems likely their fates have been reversed.  And I think I'd rather see the Dragon Empire rule over the Raven Empire anyway.

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There's just one problem with Tuon going back on her promise to Egwene...Mat was there when it was made. It was strongly implied that if she broke her word, he'd leave. Since his assistence is absolutely necessary for he to succeed in re-taking Seanchan, i'd say she has a powerful incentive to keep her word.  The real test will come when the Aiel ask for their Wise One's back..Tuon may be tempted to say no and then what happens?

 

tud

 

The WO's will not ask the leashed WO's back.The dragon' s peace said that Tuon could have the damane they had right now.Anyway Avi's vision said that any move by the Aiel to attack the Seachen will lead to the complete extermination of the Aiel.I would think that it is a powerful reason not to pick at that wound again.

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The Wise Ones won't have to ask for their leashed Wise Ones back.  Tuon's treaty with Egwene specified the release of any damane who does not wish to be leashed, in exchange for the Tower paying for room and board for Seanchan proselytizers on the virtues of being damane in the major cities, including Tar Valon.  Those Wise Ones that wish to go can go back on their own.  Tuon will hold to that treaty, not only because Mat was there to witness it, but because she believes she's right.  And she just got smoked in this bargain.  A good many of the newly captured Aes Sedai from the White Tower raid will retain enough of their sense of self to want to be released, as will the captured Wise Ones.  And in a few months, the Seanchan are gonna have a hell of a time hanging on to all their Aiel da'covale.  Seanchan authority is gonna get a lot more complicated in the coming months.

 

And what you're forgetting about Tuon's acceptance of the Dragon's Peace is that the Seanchan essentially agreed to go to the Aiel and submit to their authority to resolve any political grievances, including, presumably, grievances with the Aiel themselves.  The Dragon's Peace effectively makes the Aiel the rulers of the Westlands, and includes and supersedes the Seanchan Empire.  If the Seanchan continue to submit to the Aiel, they'll eventually fall to attrition as they will no longer be able to capture damane by conquest, and the foundations of their brainwashing have been fatally undermined by the revelation of the sul'dam.  If they defy the Aiel, the entire rest of Randland is obligated to rise up and defeat them.  Basically, by demanding that the Aiel be included in the Dragon's Peace, Aviendha has swapped the fate of the Aiel for the fate of the Seanchan, as she saw things in her vision.

Edited by Thrasymachus

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There is no treaty with Egwene,nothing was signed.Even if it is considered a treaty only a fool would think Tuon will honor it if she loses even one Damane.She was willing to tear up the Dragon's peace without a second thought.

 

And Tuon said "properly trained" damane can be given a choice.A smart choice of words.A properly trained damane will never chose freedom,any Damane choosing freedom can be called not properly trained.

 

The Seachan are the strongest military force in Randland at the end of AMOL.Eventually Tuon will recover Seachan(the outrigger novels were supposed to be about that).And Seachen is bigger than Randland.They will have no shortage of Damane all they need to do is recruit from Seachan. No Randland country will mess with them not even the Aiel.

Edited by XXX47

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There is no treaty with Egwene,nothing was signed.Even if it is considered a treaty only a fool would think Tuon will honor it if she loses even one Damane.She was willing to tear up the Dragon's peace without a second thought.

That was pure crap writing, though. Breaking your word is a big thing in Seanchan. It severely lowers your eyes. Its something they lambast the Randlanders for, after a thousand years. No way will Tuon ever break her word. That was just an attempt to raise some tension, and it didn't work anyway.

And Tuon said "properly trained" damane can be given a choice.A smart choice of words.A properly trained damane will never chose freedom,any Damane choosing freedom can be called not properly trained.

She said no such thing:

 

 

“And the damane you now hold?” Egwene said. “You’ll let them go, if they wish to be released?”

“None who are properly trained would wish that.”

“This must be equal on both sides,” Egwene said. “What of a girl whom you discover to be able to channel? If she does not wish to be made damane, will you let her leave your lands and join ours?”

“That would be like letting an enraged grolm free in a city square.”

“You said that people will see the truth,” Egwene said. “If your way of life is strong, your ideals true, then people will see them for what they are. If they don’t, you shouldn’t force them. Let any who wish to be free go free, and I’ll let your people speak in Tar Valon. Light! I’ll give them room and free board, and I’ll see the same done in every city!”

Fortuona eyed Egwene. “Many of our sul’dam have come to this war anticipating the chance to capture new damane from among those who serve the Shadow. These Sharans, perhaps. You would have us let them, or your sisters of the Shadow, free? To destroy, murder?”

 

Egwene makes it clear that any who wish to be free must be free, and Tuon said nothing different, only asking for Darkfriends and Black Ajah.

 

The Seachan are the strongest military force in Randland at the end of AMOL.

Not stronger than the combined military strength the Aiel can call upon. They have nowhere close to the White Tower's numbers, either. And we don't know what their losses were, in the Last Battle.

Eventually Tuon will recover Seachan(the outrigger novels were supposed to be about that).And Seachen is bigger than Randland.They will have no shortage of Damane all they need to do is recruit from Seachan. No Randland country will mess with them not even the Aiel.

But only sparkers become Damane. Both sparkers and learners become Aes Sedai. The combined Tower-Sea Folk-Wise One cooperative will have an immensely larger number of channelers at their disposal, because there's nothing stopping learners from becoming channelers in the Randlands. Plus, the male channelers will be free too.

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The Seachan smashed the combined Randland armies in Avi's vision. Pretty sure that militarily they are capable of it.Nothing has changed militarily in this future except that the Aiel would not go and pick a fight with them now.

 

Where is it said that only sparklers become damane in Seachan. They check every woman of age for ability to channel IIRC

Edited by XXX47

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Where is it said that only sparklers become damane in Seachan. They check every woman of age for ability to channel IIRC

Well the learners turn into sul'dam so not sure what your question is here?

 

The Seanchan are going to more than have their hands full reclaiming the other continent. Further Avi's vision was one potential future, one that has been averted with the changes in the Dragon's Peace. As a a result there is very little we can take away that potential future. Far too many variables.

Edited by Suttree

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The Seachan smashed the combined Randland armies in Avi's vision.

And that vision is now defunct.

Pretty sure that militarily they are capable of it.

If you recall the vision, it began with the Aiel attacking the Seanchan alone. One several generations later did the other nations join in. By then the Aiel had been weakened. That won't be the case not, since the Aiel can lead a unified force of all nations in one strike right at the beginning. The military situation has changed drastically.

Nothing has changed militarily in this future except that the Aiel would not go and pick a fight with them now.

Like I said, the military situation is very different.

Where is it said that only sparklers become damane in Seachan. They check every woman of age for ability to channel IIRC

Its said all over the books. What do you mean where is it said? Their learners become sul'dam. That's why there are so many sul'dam to each damane.

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I wonder the same thing that was originally posted.  Why could we not have given a scene with Hawkwing and Tuon?  If not then, at least in the epiloge which was really really short considering the volumes of story of the past 20 years.  I have my own idea of how that dialog might have gone down, but unfortunately, I'm just a fan of the series.

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I wonder the same thing that was originally posted.  Why could we not have given a scene with Hawkwing and Tuon?  If not then, at least in the epiloge which was really really short considering the volumes of story of the past 20 years.  I have my own idea of how that dialog might have gone down, but unfortunately, I'm just a fan of the series.

I find it more interesting to not have the scene in the book. At least we know the dialogue did happen.

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After Fortuona complies with her agreement with Egwene, and since it's agreement made between rulers in front of witnesses, it does constitute a treaty, I very much doubt the Empire will have the strength to re-take the Seanchan homelands.  Within the next year after the Last Battle, the Seanchan are gonna have to deal with stabilizing their rule in the Westlands, which, despite appearances, is not nearly as stable as it seems.  As of the Last Battle, they were still clearing out the Rahad, and there are still doubtless elements of rebellion in Tarabon.  So they'll be a while getting ready to go back to Seanchan, it apparently took them 300 years to get ready to go the West.  Of course, with gateways, they'll probably be faster, but it will still take them some time to gather their strength and organize.  And they'll have more headaches to deal with in the near term in the guise of the the Shaido Aiel da'covale they've got from their battle at Malden.  In about a year, there's gonna be a lot of 'em go awol.  And who knows what damage they might wreak on their way out, or what the Seanchan will do to themselves trying to get them back?  

 

In the long term, learners being trained to channel in the rest of the Westlands will be enough to undermine Seanchan rule, as long as that rule is predicated upon damane.  Do you really think Seanchan sul'dam will really be content to merely channel through someone else forever?  They know the joy and feeling of completion that comes from embracing the Source because they feel it through the link.  When they could go to the White Tower and be trained to channel on their own, feel the Power for themselves and not merely through someone else, and maintain their freedom?  The Westlands will deprive the Seanchan not just of damane, but also of sul'dam.

 

The Seanchan really have only one option for their long-term survival in the West, and that's to submit to the authority of the Aiel, as specified in the Dragon's Peace, to which they are party.  They'll have to ultimately abandon the subjugation of sparkers, because they simply won't be able to keep many learners to control them, even if they keep control of the sparkers in their own lands.  But I don't see them as capable of doing that.  The Empire will never submit to the Aiel, despite Rand presenting his legitimacy to rule as preceding Hawkwing's, and they'll lash out before they give up their subjugation of damane.  The military situation that results will be quite different from the one Aviendha saw in the columns.  A unified front against the Seanchan can push them out before they have time to adapt.  There will be far more channelers in the Westlands to throw at the Seanchan than the Seanchan can field, and despite their lighter casualties in the Last Battle, they will still be outnumbered by a unified force, and that will only get worse as time goes on.  The Seanchan as an Empire are now doomed.  By making sure the Aiel were included in the Dragon's Peace, Aviendha swapped the Aiel's fate with the Seanchan's.

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