how the Senchean beat the Aial (avienda vision) ???

[elric]

i fear u ignoring my main point about cycle.

 

say u have 78 channeler in a city

 

u bring 78 channeler of well syncronise to destroy that city.

u lounch 78 wave and the 78 channeler inside the city can react, each can make a counter wave to deflect /lesson the attack

 

now launch a wave made by a cycle of 78 at the same city, i claim that the defending channeler seperate 78 counter wave wont be able to affect the cycle wave -> bye bye city -> bye bye -> defending channelers

 

that why i percieve cycle as a decisive advantage.

[Mr Ares]

when the job is to break something , yes sometime a screw driver can be very effective or a drill and pressure pint... but a BIG HAMMER (and i c it more lie the iron ball used to break building) will do the job of breaking.

But that's the point. The object isn't to break something. It isn't even to win the war - the war is a means to an end. You win the war to achieve a goal.

 

and true i c nuke as uncounterable.

But I've already shown that channeling isn't uncounterable. So even if nukes are uncounterable, the analogy doesn't work.

 

i c it as the equilent of today nuke, yep u can have lit of weapin but can u counter a nuke attack ????

say only North Korea had nukes and usa was totally incapable of creating it, who would u bet on in a war ??? ( i use N.K couse i precieve them as crazy enough to use it)

In Vietnam, the USA (who had nukes) fought North Vietnam (who didn't). The USA was the only country who had shown themselves willing to use nuclear weapons in a war, so they were definitely crazy enough to use it. The USA lost. Here are two ways to counter nukes: firstly, have nukes of your own (Mutually Assured Destruction), and secondly spread out. A nuke might level a city, but against a less urban population, it's harder to hit the major population centres. Go back to the 13th century and you'll find your nukes do little more than blow up one castle at a time in an incredibly inefficient and polluting way. What percentage of the Seanchan population live in cities, as opposed to the country?

 

Tar can be VERY effective tool.

enter Tar -> force the enemy leader into it (can be done but percieved as evil) -> compell him -. rinse and repeat.

but it a tool senchean can learn so it temporarely advantage.

It's also a tool the Wise Ones despise, therefore neutering it as an advantage, and it can be countered (by Warding dreams), and they only have three women who can do it. Helpful, but not a game winner.

 

26 channeler cant destroy a city at once , it will take some time and can be countered.

a cycle of 26 cant be countered and can level a city in 1 strike.

1 nuke vs fleet who carpet bomb.

As I've already said, a big circle can be countered. Demandred thought it was possible to counter Rand and Nynaeve using the CK, which is more powerful than any circle. Of course, a fleet who carpet bomb have certain advantages over the single nuke - if you have one bomb on one plane, the strike fails if you take it down. If you have lots of bombs on lots of planes, it's harder to stop everything getting through. A single nuke is all or nothing. A fleet might get nothing, but it's far harder, and it can still achieve everything, and it has the possibility of scoring something in between. So the fleet, while more resource intensive, has many advantages. A circle takes away that efficiency from a single bomb, needing a fleet with just one bomb between them. So a circle has all the disadvantages of a single bomb, with none of the advantages. Linking allows you to combine the strength of several with the precision of one - that's not something that blowing up a city takes advantage of.

 

i fear u ignoring my main point about cycle.

 

say u have 78 channeler in a city

 

u bring 78 channeler of well syncronise to destroy that city.

u lounch 78 wave and the 78 channeler inside the city can react, each can make a counter wave to deflect /lesson the attack

 

now launch a wave made by a cycle of 78 at the same city, i claim that the defending channeler seperate 78 counter wave wont be able to affect the cycle wave -> bye bye city -> bye bye -> defending channelers

 

that why i percieve cycle as a decisive advantage.

And you're wrong. The text says that a circle weaves can still be undone, in a way that is potentially harmful to the circle, no less. So the big advantage you perceive isn't there. And you're ignoring BenevolentCow's point, that the precision benefits of a circle are ignored in your scenario, therefore making it an option that is weaker than individual channelers - and having 78 targets to attack is harder than just one. If you can't stop all 78, then something will get through and do some damage. With a circle, you only need to beat one. Compare one enormous football and 78 regular sized ones hurtling towards the same goal - if the big one gets in, you get 78 points, but if the goalie stops the ball you get none. With the regular sized ones, you're expecting the goalie to stop 78 different balls - how many goals do you think will be scored?

 

And Dresden was the city in Germany you were thinking of.

[elric]

please post the quote about Demandsred think he can counter Chedan Kull.

couse the way i rem u cant counter a wave if it certein level above u.

u cxan untie such a wave , but not counter it with a wave of your own.

 

couse my main pint is that wave CANT be counter by solo channeler so to take your fottball analogy -> that huge 78 point ball ALWAYS score.

[Suttree]

The biggest thing you are missing elric is the fact that the aiel (or anyone else in Randland for that matter) cant do this and honestly dont know how.

 

We are armchair quarterbacking to use an apt term. Its easy to come up with 10,000 ways in which the one power could be used, but no one "in the books" knows how to do any of those.

 

In the end you would have an insanely large circle basically putting up the same wind/spirit screen they always have and tossing the same fireballs they always have just at a greatly magnified level.

 

Thats why the seanchan are so unstoppable in in the books. If they see something works (for or against them) they adapt to it while all of the others don't really. Aiel pound for pound are the best warriors in the world that we know of, bt it comes from their determination and dedication to the form of battle they prefer. The seanchan will initially be devastated by this but will quickly adapt and then destroy them.

 

Interesting point here from Ch1....

 

 

Perrin snorted. “Go jump in the Winespring Water. You really think this is Demandred?”

 

“It’s exactly the sort of thing he’d try. Separate your foes, then crush them one at a time. It’s one of the oldest strategies in warfare.”

 

Demandred himself had discovered it in the old writings. They’d known nothing of war when the Bore had first opened. Oh, they’d thought they understood it, but it had been the understanding of the scholar looking back on something ancient, dusty.

 

 

Can we put AMoL spoilers on this board?

[Knivy]

at least he put it in a spoiler and announced what it was...

[Barid Bel Medar]

Yes, some spoiler posts are allowed. If they are an aside note, or interesting point (as it was) that is fine.

 

They have to be spoiler captioned of course.

 

If it is a focal point of the discussion, even if it is spoiler captioned, I'd move it to the aMoL board.

[Morden]

My take on the reasons why the Aiel lost are quite obvious in many ways. Arrogance.

 

They were so arrogant that they started the war, disdainful of the wetlanders, they tried to get the others to help after they'd started losing.

 

If they had united the WT/BT/Sea Folk, then the armies of Randland they could have forced the Seanchan into a stalemate.

 

You guys are seriously over estimating how many Damane the Seanchan have. they useonly women who naturally channel, and they have so many Sul'dam that they never have enough damane to spread around. whereas Randland has access to people who can be trained. This means that Randland probably outnumbers them 3-4:1 in terms of channelers.

 

The Black Tower alone with 1,000 men could likely wipe out the entire seanchan hierachy and most of its army. Using accurate intelligence and scouting it would be relatively simple. I said simple not easy and it would be costly but;

 

Ashaman Gateways in, levels a building with either High Bloods, Sul'dam, Damane or Army Officers, Skims out within moments. Rinse and repeat, eventually the Damane would learn to detect male channeling better, but it is still going to be incredibly problematic because they will be reacting.

 

To beat them you would have to be totally and utterly ruthless, willing to commit to such a war that you would destroy them utterly, the very worst uses of the One Power possible. Co-ordinate it properly? Hit them all at once so damned hard that by the time they start recovering your hitting them hard in other places...

 

Well you could win, assuming you could get everyone to work together, but its a question of whether the cost of the victory is worth the victory. To me I would want the seanchan as a culture exterminated but thats my opinion. Most would disagree and thus the Seanchan would win by using peoples own lack of unity and decisiveness against them.

[elric]

great points Morden.

altough dream walking will make info gathering easier

 

and that the point that bug me,

 

take the current Aial leadership:

can u claim Ruerc /Surreila/Amis... are arrogent and indecisive ???

 

the diffrence between the competence level of today Aial (in leadership/tactic /determination) and the vision Aial is VAST.

[Mr Ares]

please post the quote about Demandsred think he can counter Chedan Kull.

couse the way i rem u cant counter a wave if it certein level above u.

u cxan untie such a wave , but not counter it with a wave of your own.

 

couse my main pint is that wave CANT be counter by solo channeler so to take your fottball analogy -> that huge 78 point ball ALWAYS score.

"If he could undo what al'Thor had done at the source, Demandred thought as he stepped through his Gateway into Shadar Logoth, undo it sharply and suddenly, that might well kill the man, or at least sear the ability to channel out of him." WH 35. There's nothing to say what you suggest, about weaves becoming uncounterable (if you think there is, well, it's your turn to provide the quote), but there's the quote saying that it is possible to do something about even the strongest of weaves. Oh, and don't forget, even if the goalie can't stop your enormous football, that doesn't mean your shot is on target.

[TristanWebb]

Elric, could you do me a favour and at least attempt to spell things correctly? People have posted the correct spelling and terminology several times.

 

As for the nuke idea, it still requires that you not have an equivalent amount of channellers on the other side to counter. Sure they might not be able to counter the weaves directly, but I feel we have been spoiled with one on one duels with people severing the flows. A full scale battle withe the power would be more along the lines of Dumai's Wells than Nyn vs Moggy. With force parity, twenty odd channellers would be able to throw up defences against the equivalent circle, given training to do so, which the Seanchan would have in short order considering their military tactics.

 

As a strike force, perhaps a circle would be better, especially if the attenuation doesn't occur through a gateway. But winning a full sized conflict requires more than tactical strikes unless your goal is to simply Scorched Earth your way to victory. From the vision, the Aiel want their channellers back, so simply wiping out all of Seanchan is effectively off the table. To actually hold ground against the Seanchan, circles do little besides preventing Shielding, and if it comes to hand to hand even that isn't true if they can get a collar on a member of the circle.

 

My point about the nuke is this: in a surprise, planned attack against a city, resistance would be minimal at best, thus the possibility of people being aware enough to sever flows as they are woven is very low. Given that circles lose power compared to individuals, if the individuals were properly placed around the city to do the most damage, the would control a greater amount or the One Power and could therefore do more damage ( assuming of course that each individual was AS level, an army of Sorilea's I agree would be much less effective individually than linked, there is a minimum power level needed to cause destruction).

[Morden]

Elric, could you do me a favour and at least attempt to spell things correctly? People have posted the correct spelling and terminology several times.

 

As for the nuke idea, it still requires that you not have an equivalent amount of channellers on the other side to counter. Sure they might not be able to counter the weaves directly, but I feel we have been spoiled with one on one duels with people severing the flows. A full scale battle withe the power would be more along the lines of Dumai's Wells than Nyn vs Moggy. With force parity, twenty odd channellers would be able to throw up defences against the equivalent circle, given training to do so, which the Seanchan would have in short order considering their military tactics.

 

As a strike force, perhaps a circle would be better, especially if the attenuation doesn't occur through a gateway. But winning a full sized conflict requires more than tactical strikes unless your goal is to simply Scorched Earth your way to victory. From the vision, the Aiel want their channellers back, so simply wiping out all of Seanchan is effectively off the table. To actually hold ground against the Seanchan, circles do little besides preventing Shielding, and if it comes to hand to hand even that isn't true if they can get a collar on a member of the circle.

 

My point about the nuke is this: in a surprise, planned attack against a city, resistance would be minimal at best, thus the possibility of people being aware enough to sever flows as they are woven is very low. Given that circles lose power compared to individuals, if the individuals were properly placed around the city to do the most damage, the would control a greater amount or the One Power and could therefore do more damage ( assuming of course that each individual was AS level, an army of Sorilea's I agree would be much less effective individually than linked, there is a minimum power level needed to cause destruction).

 

The main advantage of a circle as an offensive weapon is that you can have one experienced channeller coupled with a dozen women who could barely channel a glass of water into the air and totally destroy even the most powerful channeller the enemy has, while a circle might not be equal to the power of all added together, it still adds up significantly, not to mention causing less strain and allowing the weilder to hold onto so much more saidar/saidin than any one individual. (Think about what Rand learns early on that 13 of the weakest AS linked would be almost unstoppable to him due to how the power adds up, it would be the same for Damane)

 

Unless you want to commit to a full scale cutting out mission aka what happened to Shadar Logath, then a full circle including men to achieve the maximum, you could smash them from a distance using flows of such magnitude that they would stand as much chance as an ant against a boot. The problem with that is the level of power would be a damned beacon to the Damane and sul'dam at other places, so you would need to do your business and get out very quickly.

 

Oh and Damane cannot use angrael or Sa'angrael, that is a serious disadvantage but it still goes to a stalemate unless they are willing to utterly annihilate them. Failing that make every woman who can channel swear on the oath rod not to channel if they are leashed. That would ruin their effectiveness to the seanchan, add in an AS loopholl and add Seanchan to their Kill on Sight list like trollocs and its all good.

[Suttree]

One more thing to consider concerning circles is this shortcoming as pointed out by Cads when the fog descends on their group...

 

ACoS

"A circle, Cadsuane?" the Gray asked. Head turning this way and that to peer at the fog, she looked like a plump, pale-haired sparrow with her sharp nose and inquisitive eyes. Not a frightened sparrow, but one definitely ready to take wing. "Should we link?"

 

"No, Niande," Cadsuane sighed. "If you see something, you must be able to strike at it without waiting to point it out for me. Samitsu, stop worrying about Roshan. We have three fine swords here, two of them heron-mark, I see. They will do."

[Morden]

One more thing to consider concerning circles is this shortcoming as pointed out by Cads when the fog descends on their group...

 

ACoS

"A circle, Cadsuane?" the Gray asked. Head turning this way and that to peer at the fog, she looked like a plump, pale-haired sparrow with her sharp nose and inquisitive eyes. Not a frightened sparrow, but one definitely ready to take wing. "Should we link?"

 

"No, Niande," Cadsuane sighed. "If you see something, you must be able to strike at it without waiting to point it out for me. Samitsu, stop worrying about Roshan. We have three fine swords here, two of them heron-mark, I see. They will do."

 

very good point, but that would be more of a problem against Raken and to'raken than most armies, because they arent likely to face many Seanchan based killer mist attacks, but if they arent strong enough to do much individually, then a circle is a definate positive.

 

Doesnt make a whole lot of difference though, seanchan have to be beaten from within by getting them to assimilate parts of randland culture about channelers, or destroy them.

[shortkut]

Why not lots of circles with one experiences AS and12 novices/accepted. Many circles = many strong individuals at worst. No circle would have more than one AS

[BFG]

Elric, could you do me a favour and at least attempt to spell things correctly? People have posted the correct spelling and terminology several times.

 

As for the nuke idea, it still requires that you not have an equivalent amount of channellers on the other side to counter. Sure they might not be able to counter the weaves directly, but I feel we have been spoiled with one on one duels with people severing the flows. A full scale battle withe the power would be more along the lines of Dumai's Wells than Nyn vs Moggy. With force parity, twenty odd channellers would be able to throw up defences against the equivalent circle, given training to do so, which the Seanchan would have in short order considering their military tactics.

 

As a strike force, perhaps a circle would be better, especially if the attenuation doesn't occur through a gateway. But winning a full sized conflict requires more than tactical strikes unless your goal is to simply Scorched Earth your way to victory. From the vision, the Aiel want their channellers back, so simply wiping out all of Seanchan is effectively off the table. To actually hold ground against the Seanchan, circles do little besides preventing Shielding, and if it comes to hand to hand even that isn't true if they can get a collar on a member of the circle.

 

My point about the nuke is this: in a surprise, planned attack against a city, resistance would be minimal at best, thus the possibility of people being aware enough to sever flows as they are woven is very low. Given that circles lose power compared to individuals, if the individuals were properly placed around the city to do the most damage, the would control a greater amount or the One Power and could therefore do more damage ( assuming of course that each individual was AS level, an army of Sorilea's I agree would be much less effective individually than linked, there is a minimum power level needed to cause destruction).

 

The main advantage of a circle as an offensive weapon is that you can have one experienced channeller coupled with a dozen women who could barely channel a glass of water into the air and totally destroy even the most powerful channeller the enemy has, while a circle might not be equal to the power of all added together, it still adds up significantly, not to mention causing less strain and allowing the weilder to hold onto so much more saidar/saidin than any one individual. (Think about what Rand learns early on that 13 of the weakest AS linked would be almost unstoppable to him due to how the power adds up, it would be the same for Damane)

 

Unless you want to commit to a full scale cutting out mission aka what happened to Shadar Logath, then a full circle including men to achieve the maximum, you could smash them from a distance using flows of such magnitude that they would stand as much chance as an ant against a boot. The problem with that is the level of power would be a damned beacon to the Damane and sul'dam at other places, so you would need to do your business and get out very quickly.

 

Oh and Damane cannot use angrael or Sa'angrael, that is a serious disadvantage but it still goes to a stalemate unless they are willing to utterly annihilate them. Failing that make every woman who can channel swear on the oath rod not to channel if they are leashed. That would ruin their effectiveness to the seanchan, add in an AS loopholl and add Seanchan to their Kill on Sight list like trollocs and its all good.

 

My understanding (and i can't quote from the books on this) is that the reason that 13 of the weakest aes sedai once linked could shield the strongest channeler is because of the increase in precision. I don't think there's much doubt that Rand could take out 13 weak AS at once unlinked, as he'd have far more power available and can split his flows - but one advantage a circle has it that it increases the precision (I think it's talked about in the Strike at Shayol Ghul excerpt). If this is right I'm not sure that the increase in precision will make that much difference in a fireball or earth explosion - maybe it would?

 

Another problem with the 'ultimate' weave from full circles is that initially teh Aiel want their channelers back, wiping them out instead would seem to be off the table.

 

Not sure how AS aware of the shortened life expectancy would react to swearing a fourth oath, although I guess they could replace another one.

 

 

Why not lots of circles with one experiences AS and12 novices/accepted. Many circles = many strong individuals at worst. No circle would have more than one AS

 

Eg showed that in specific circumstances, this works really well - and Salidars reaction to the bubble of evil suggests they've thought along the same lines. Problem with offence is that an AS couldn't attack first. Possibly allow an accepted to lead the circle, but an accepted may not have the maturity to cope with what's needed to be done - Eg/El & Nyn are not your average accepted.

[elric]

sorry for the late respond but i tried to decide on the best example.

 

i think Rand capture is the best example how u can counter a wave above certain power.

 

or Nyn fight against the 2 linked black in abu-Dar

 

about Demandred countering the cleansing, he wanted to UNDO it not to counter it.

i agrea u can untie /undo a contruct made by a cycle.

but when a cycle weave come at u u cant counter it head on.

 

and i'm totally talk about using cycle in a total annahilation type of war.

in case the example i used of demolishing CITIES , or creating TSUNAMY /re-erupting Karakatua wasnt clear enough.

and it should start with both of senchean capital -> Abu dar and the one in senchean.

[BFG]

Elric - problem with wiping out the cities is that they would need to start with the perspective that it's win or nothing - this isn't the case. They go to war to regain the captives the Seanchan hold and as a way to gain honour - they weren't left with a system that allowed them to live with honour without war. Starting the war by wiping out their cities isn't going to free the captives held, it's going to kill them, same with direct attacks on Damane/Sul' dam. Using that type of weave isn't going to bring any of them honour. With ours (and Avi's) new pov based on the walk through Rhuidean, it may well be that they decide differently - that all captives are better off dead and should be willing to make the sacrifice, but without that pov their's no way they'd start by thinking that way. That then opens the problem that each channeler captured is an enemy in the next battle. The Aiel would never win a war of attrition. Plus as things stand the AS would not be able to do those weaves - unless they changed their vows, something Eg has most recently been reluctant to do,d espite having a better understanding than almost any other AS of teh danger the Seanchan serve.

 

There are many ways that Randlanders could win the war, but it's easy to see how the Seanchan could win.

[elric]

i agrea they wouldnt had START the war in this mind set.

 

but when it become clear they are loosing-> that when the question arise.

Avi vision show there was a period that the Aial been loosing but want yet defeated -> during hat window they could divert to a scortch earth tactic.

take Iran-Iraq war for example -> Iraq was clearly loosing then started using Chemical warfare and literally changed the couese of the war.

cycle dmg potential vastly exceed chemical wep.

[Mr Ares]

sorry for the late respond but i tried to decide on the best example.

 

i think Rand capture is the best example how u can counter a wave above certain power.

 

or Nyn fight against the 2 linked black in abu-Dar

Care to explain how they support your case?

 

about Demandred countering the cleansing, he wanted to UNDO it not to counter it.

An arbitrary and meaningless distinction. In this context, would you care to explain how there is a difference?

 

i agrea u can untie /undo a contruct made by a cycle.

but when a cycle weave come at u u cant counter it head on.

Then counter it from the side. All that matters is that is can be stopped - you've just admitted that t can be, and so surely that undermines your theory entirely? Whatever they do can be undone.

 

i agrea they wouldnt had START the war in this mind set.

 

but when it become clear they are loosing-> that when the question arise.

Avi vision show there was a period that the Aial been loosing but want yet defeated -> during hat window they could divert to a scortch earth tactic.

take Iran-Iraq war for example -> Iraq was clearly loosing then started using Chemical warfare and literally changed the couese of the war.

cycle dmg potential vastly exceed chemical wep.

The problem with that scenario is you're dealing with an enemy who can stop you using your WMDs, and who can use WMDs of their own - it's not an advantage, it just makes the whole war much nastier. You're saying that they should use scorched earth tactics against an empire that spans two continents. What's to stop them doing the same in reverse?

[Morden]

the seanchan do cause as much possible damage as they can, they just localise it to enemy soldiers. The main reason is that they want to re-conquer territory they consider their own, so why would they destroy it.

 

Weaves can be countered and/or unravelled yes. But to put it mildly that takes more skill and finesse than the seanchan appear to use. They use Damane like sledge hammers. They are there to take out as many enemy troops as they can, simple as. They dont seem to focus much on defence, or have you not wondered why Alivia, who is probably the strongest female channeler alive could not stand toe to toe with lanfear weakened by far as cyndane at the cleansing? even though she was equiped with Angrael?

 

I havent seen any impressions that they would even know how to counter weak weaves let alone ones which they arent familiar with. Even more so if you lace Saidin in with it, because they wouldnt be able to see half of it.

[BFG]

the seanchan do cause as much possible damage as they can, they just localise it to enemy soldiers. The main reason is that they want to re-conquer territory they consider their own, so why would they destroy it.

 

But the Aiel want to rescue prisoners - they have no reason to use or choose a scorched earth tactic. It's against their culture, probably against their honour system, they place honour on touching the opponent, not blasting them from a distance. Once they realise they're losing they'd probably change tactics, but it may be to late by the time they do, the other nations wouldn't join in because of the Dragons Peace, so at the beginning it is just Seanchan vs Aiel.

 

 

Weaves can be countered and/or unravelled yes. But to put it mildly that takes more skill and finesse than the seanchan appear to use. They use Damane like sledge hammers. They are there to take out as many enemy troops as they can, simple as. They dont seem to focus much on defence, or have you not wondered why Alivia, who is probably the strongest female channeler alive could not stand toe to toe with lanfear weakened by far as cyndane at the cleansing? even though she was equiped with Angrael?

 

Because Lanfear used tactics better - if Lanfear hadn't kept running away she'd have been toast!

 

I havent seen any impressions that they would even know how to counter weak weaves let alone ones which they arent familiar with. Even more so if you lace Saidin in with it, because they wouldnt be able to see half of it.

 

Agreed, but they only need to capture one female channeler that knows how. Think about how quickly they get travelling from Elaida. From what I remember the BT does quite well before being beaten.

 

 

 

I think that both sides have the potential to win, there are a lot of unknowns with Avis vision - a lot of key players, are apparantly missing with no real explanation. We don't know casualties from the groups involved. Based on the information available the Seanchan victory is believable, as is the possibility of a different outcome.

[Whizbang]

Inverted weaves might be an advantage for a while. As far as we know, none of the Damane know inverted weaves. So, form a large circle, set some powerful wards/traps with inverted weaves. Damane stroll through them and are caught/shielded in some way (Maybe a gateway that opens up underneath a channeler, sending them to someplace the Randlanders control. This way, if a Randlander passes through the trap by mistake, they are just back in friendly territory. Also, this gives them an escape route in a pinch.). The only counter the Seanchan know is to avoid the area, but by then, potentially large number of Damane/Suldam have been caught or nutralized. Then send in another circle to do it all over again somewhere else and in some other manner.

 

Also, on the subject of the three oaths... Why three? Why not just one oath that encompases them all. "I vow to always speak the truth, not to use the OP as a weapon except against darkfriends and the shadow and in the last defence of my life or that of my warder, or to make a weapon that a man (should be "person") may use to kill another." BAM, one oath, longer life.

[elric]

there is a diffrence between a wave constract and a wave that come for u.

like there a diffrence between a tied shield and a shield thst his hold (soft/hard points).

 

both Ispan and the other BA cant hold against Nyn , evemn if they both attackher together but not linksed she would had easily overwhelm the, but as a 2 ppl cycle they been a match for her.

 

remember how everyone was afarid of Alivia due to her streangth , and 1 channeler is NOTHING compared to full cycle.

 

i fully agrea the Aial in Avi vision wouldnt start wit this tact (not sure about it now that they had warning :) ), but once they start loosing i dont c why not resort to such tactic instead of risking loosing to an enemy who will never rest till he enslave /destroy you.

"

been twenty years since the Seanchan had gained the Andoran war machines. The Aiel had been tumbling toward

defeat for decades; it was a testament to their tenacious nature that they had lasted so long.

"

during this decades .. the Aial had the streangth and the opportunity to turn the war by using scorched earth tactics.

[Kamin_Majere]

When do they have this Strength and Opportunity?

At the Beginning when they start the war for no reason but they are tired of living peacefully in the wetlands?

During the war when they actually think they have a chance to win, even if that is wrong headed thinking?

After they are beaten back so badly they are begging and manipulating to get Andor's assistance?

When they are a defeated and broken people after the Seanchan have taken Andor and are now marching against the rest of Randland?

 

The Aiel with out this vision are a people that are destined to be scorched from the earth. No matter how you put it or try to rationalize it they don't have the military capability, adaptability, or channeling ability to fight the Seanchan. They are greatly outnumbered and outclassed in this war, and no amount of "but they could of" hypothetical's changes this.

 

The fact is they lose and lose badly. They are a people that must be broken to change, and unfortunately the Seanchan decide not to break them so much as commit genocide against them for the war. It sucks because the Aiel seem to be awesome people, but they are not up to the task of taking on all of Seandar and the forces that the Seanchan have already in Randland.

 

Even with this vision I don't see it happening much different... the situation might change now, but this is not going to be a "happily ever after" story. And sometimes even if you beat the main bad guy, the bad guys still win. Most of the times books skirt this because the good guys have to win so magically they do... but I dont believe this is going to be one of those cases, it just doesnt make sense that everyone lives happily after this.

[BFG]

I agree to an extent, but I think it depends on the outcome of the war. A lot of key players make no showing in this vision - specifically where is Eg, Amys, Bair, Sorilea (if she's not a DF), what happened to Mat and Tuon? At the moment some or all of them are expected to survive the war. I can't help thinking that their absence is key to this future happening.