Aviendha's vision was not the future

[Terez]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

[Luckers]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

+1

[MountaineerWV]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

[damandred]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

 

i agree with this.

 

 

 

i think the only thing we can take as a certanty from avi's vision is the seanchan are going be big players in the next age. Whether that is as a conquorer or alie (proberbly the 2nd 1) remains to be seen.

 

 

The next age will follow the same basic pattern as it did in the last turning of the wheel, whether the Aiel get nearly wiped out or return to the way of the leaf (my own view) or change in some other way wont change that. RJ says in his tapesty quote that on close scrutiny the the ages could be very differant than they were on a previous turning.

the same goes for channellers, they will play their part in the next age, but as alies or slaves?

 

Avi's vision has proberbly happened in the past maybe not in the last turning but possibly during one of the countless turnings before.

 

 

(sorry for spelling cant find the check on this comp)

[Morden]

TBH I think in many ways you are right about it being a repeat of the previous 3rd/4th age, but thats just it. the ONLY way Rand can stop it from being repeated over and over again is to change the format. Even assuming the Seanchan finally acheive enlightenment (like those in Avi's vision) then Damane would become servants perhaps, maybe servants of all? as for the way of the leaf.. has anyone else looked at da'covale? they sound very similar to the Daishan Aiel.

 

To me the only way I can see to change the pattern is to eradicate the Seanchan. But not my decision, if only Rand used the Choedan Kal on the Palace at Ebou Dar and all the Seanchan camps first lol. As to me letting them live and grow strong is serving the present by sacrificing the future.

[Apple Scruff]

Firstly, the ring Ter'angreal prove the future is not set in stone. Your choices make a difference in outcomes. Otherwise, what's their point in existing? Unlike the theory of time and fate in Lost where "Whatever you do is what you did."

 

Secondly, if time is a wheel, this is the future and the past, so it's a moot point.

[Morsker]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

Yeah, I think a lot of people were forgetting how many different kinds of prophecy there are in WoT, and how many of them are unreliable. Foretelling and Min's Viewings are infallible, but Dreaming just gives possibilities, and many of the other forms are a lot more like Dreaming than Foretelling.

 

I think the level of detail is important. Aviendha's viewings are too detailed to be something the Pattern has already fixed on.

[Terez]

Yeah, some things are definitely more set in stone than others, and those things come out in Min's viewings and in Foretellings, though even Min has viewings with alternate endings sometimes. She's only had viewings like that twice according to RJ: her viewing of Perrin and Rand (if he's not there, things will be bad) and her viewing of Gawyn. (That was actually the first forked viewing she had.)

[Agitel]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

 

It could be, actually. If the Aiel accept the Dragon's Peace, they may find themselves pretty much culturally extinct over the next few centuries anyway as they get assimilated into wetlander culture.

 

I can't say for sure, but I'm just saying you could wind up with a similar result: no Aiel society.

[Clouded]

Yeah, some things are definitely more set in stone than others, and those things come out in Min's viewings and in Foretellings, though even Min has viewings with alternate endings sometimes. She's only had viewings like that twice according to RJ: her viewing of Perrin and Rand (if he's not there, things will be bad) and her viewing of Gawyn. (That was actually the first forked viewing she had.)

 

Huh, I wonder why Min's viewing of Gareth Bryne doesn't count? Did RJ ever speak about that?

 

"If you want to stay alive, you had better stay close to him." Despite the heat, Min shivered. She had only ever had one other viewing with an "if" in it, and both had been potentially deadly. It was bad enough knowing what would happen; if she started knowing what might... "All i know is this. If he stays close to you, you live. If he gets too far away, for too long, you are going to die. Both of you. I don't know why I should have seen anything about you in his aura, but you seemed like a part of it."

[Terez]

No, he was probably talking about that one. I think it was fan assumption that he was talking about Perrin and Gawyn.

[78WARLOCK]

Definate future type visions. I keep thinking something Rand said to ???(Min) in book ???," It's different this time" "Why is that Rand ?" "Because I was raised better this time". Aviendha will change some of the Aiels beliefs. But it will be devastating to her of those who will die.

 

AAhhh this does'nt make much sense but can't put what I want to say into words here...Sorry

[thisguy]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

 

I don't see how it doesn't fit into the turning of the wheel. It is the same pattern. Time of conflict and change, probably followed by enough destruction to invoke more change.

 

The wheel ascends to a golden age and then falls into the dark ages - I don't know how completely it tracks the Yugas but within the wheel there would be the end and beginning of several ages before it comes full circle. Just because balefire (just to use an example) is lost at this part of the wheel, doesn't mean it has to be lost (if it were ever found) at the same part of the wheel on the next rotation. What would be lost is probably something equally destructive to the pattern.

[MountaineerWV]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

 

I don't see how it doesn't fit into the turning of the wheel. It is the same pattern. Time of conflict and change, probably followed by enough destruction to invoke more change.

 

I suppose it depends on the depth of similarity in each Age.

 

For example, if the third age begins with the Breaking, experiences warfare for some period of time, and ends with the Dragon sealing away the DO then there could be some large differences between turnings. I would also speculate that there has to be a Fain like character (even though RJ said he was unique to this turning) in every Third Age.

 

If that was the case, then the Aiel's future can be changed.

 

On the other hand, if the differences are only noticed (using RJ's metaphor) when one is standing an inch from the painting, the Aiel must go to war with the Seanchan and become a wretched people.

[thisguy]

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

 

I don't see how it doesn't fit into the turning of the wheel. It is the same pattern. Time of conflict and change, probably followed by enough destruction to invoke more change.

 

I suppose it depends on the depth of similarity in each Age.

 

For example, if the third age begins with the Breaking, experiences warfare for some period of time, and ends with the Dragon sealing away the DO then there could be some large differences between turnings. I would also speculate that there has to be a Fain like character (even though RJ said he was unique to this turning) in every Third Age.

 

If that was the case, then the Aiel's future can be changed.

 

On the other hand, if the differences are only noticed (using RJ's metaphor) when one is standing an inch from the painting, the Aiel must go to war with the Seanchan and become a wretched people.

 

Well, Fain was a divergence from the normal pattern - an anomaly. I don't disagree with the Aiel being able to change the future Avi saw. Just don't think that the change is off the mark if it does happen. In every way but the flesh, they were changed last time - who they were changed completely.

[BFG]

except for if the dark one wins the prophecies are correct, but they can be interpreted wrong, they are usually so ambiguous you wont know what it meant until after it was fulfilled.

 

Sometimes so ambiguous that they can be filled and I still don't realise. :)

 

You do realize that the "future" in general is not set in the Wheel of Time, right? Prophecies are not large stone tablets which read "THIS WILL HAPPEN NO MATTER WHAT!"

I am not talking about the prophecies, I'm talking about the visions Aviendha received through the pillars after modifying them in some manner, which is a thing unto itself and, as far as we know, a completely unprecedented source of information. And yes, some future events are indeed set in stone and cannot be changed no matter what. Min's viewings, those that she can interpret with a great degree of certainty, are unchangeable. Virtually all the real prophecies and foretellings we were told about have also come true, or will presumably come true in the final volume.

 

 

The whole point of the scenes was to show Aviendha a version of the future which may occur

 

This was not like the events she had seen when passing into the rings during her first visit to Rhuidean. Those had

been possibilities. This day's visions seemed more real. She felt almost certain that what she had experienced

was not simply one of many possibilities. What she had seen would occur. Step by step, honor drained from her

people. Step by step, the Aiel turned from proud to wretched.

Aviendha's thoughts are clear: this was not just a possible version of events, it was more real, something that occurs at a certain point in time. Unless we are supposed to read this as "it wasn't just a possibility, except that it was". If the visions were real events, I can only assume they happened in the previous turning of the wheel, and will happen again if Aviendha doesn't set something right.

 

I think it has to do with the mirror worlds, every time someone looks left instead of right, the two worlds split. This means that it is a future, but in this Randland she could do something different so in this Randland it doesn't occur, but in another it does. Mins viewings I see more as fixed points, things that the pattern has said must happen (the Doctor explains it a lot better with timey-whiney). Everything else as stuff that may happen.

 

But I think this has to be a future vision, Can't remember the names, but at some point there's a girl, then next we get the vision of her mother and at the end Avi recognises herself as either the grandmother, or mother of the person she's viewing through, This implies we're moving backwards through time to the present.

 

 

I say this a lot, but I think that the columns, operating on the same principle as the Rings of Rhuidean, showed Aviendha the most likely future at the moment she touched the columns. It became much less likely when she saw the visions, because now she's determined to do something about it. Which is the point, I imagine. In a way it's like the Rings showing Moiraine the three pathways from the docks, except that the columns only showed Aviendha one path—the path the Aiel were headed down without any intervention. The wrong path. If Moiraine had only seen one of the possible tragic outcomes of the docks (e.g. Lanfear killing Rand) then she might well have done what she did even without seeing that path laid out for her in detail as she did. The Ghenjei foresight was obviously a lot more complex, and a lot less likely to have ended well without prophetic intervention.

 

My issue with Avi's vision is how it fits in with the turning of the Wheel.

 

RJ:

"He likened it to a tapestry. When seen from a distance, each Third Age (to make it easy to track) has exactly the same pattern as the previous Third Age"

 

The Aiel turning into a wretched people on the verge of extinction is not a minutia change from the Aiel accepting the Dragon's Peace.

 

No but stand far enough away and the disintegration of the Aiel culture might not be that disimilar to the disintegration of the Seanchan culture (which is what I want to happen). Couple this with OP wielders to truly act as servants of all with or without the collar than it might be similar enough.

[Zalliss]

I always thought that Aviendha's vision came before Rand's epiphany. I don't remember who said it (some Aes Sedai I think) but it was how if Rand didn't learn to laugh/lighten up (cadsuane? was it her?) then his victory would be as bad as loosing; minus the end of time. Aviendha saw the future where Rand did NOT have the epiphany, now that he's had it the vision is invalidated.

[BFG]

Rands revelation occured as Avi was going through Rhuidean a second time, so it's probable/possible that the vision represented the most likely vision at the time.

[methegrate]

*Warning: LONG*

 

The problem I have with Avi's vision (and correct me if I'm straying off topic) is the likelihood of a Seanchan victory. In a post-Last Battle world, I just don't see it happening. Not at all. For the sake of convenience I'll just refer to everyone who isn't trying to enslave and ruin countless lives as "the good guys."

 

First, unfortunate but true, the power of this world comes from channelers. It's been noted many times that someone without the One Power is a child compared to even a weak channeler, and an Aes Sedai/damane/Asha'man/Wind Finder/Wise One (spelling?) with real strength can tear through ranks of ordinary soldiers like tissue paper. The series has demonstrated that time and again, most notably with the battle of Dumai's Wells. Even the vaunted raken are rendered obsolete by creative uses of Traveling, since they can't scout or transport as efficiently and are a paper mache air force compared to an Aes Sedai blasting them out of the sky. In Randland, now that channelers have taken the field, everyone else is pretty much cannon fodder.

 

Speaking of cannons, they've been invented, however I'm excluding them from my analysis. Avi's vision makes reference to the Seanchan having the devices (I think). Even though I would hold that the good guys still keep superiority of numbers, development and tactics with cannons since they'd had them far longer, I'll write that off as a tie for the sake of argument. So the question becomes, really, who has the superiority of channeling?

 

The good guys, no contest, for two reasons: numbers and skill.

 

Numbers - Start with the biggest hole of all in the Seanchan strategy, they just can't field the numbers that the good guys can, not nearly. First of all, their damane come only from the ranks of women who have the spark to channel. Everyone who can learn becomes sul'dam. All well and good, except that the books tell us that most channelers come from those who can learn. Seanchan with the spark inborn become damane, the rest become sul'dam and contribute nothing to the battlefield output; they are, for lack of a better term, essentially administrative staff. The good guys, on the other hand, have no such issues. They train both girls with the spark and the far more numerous ones who can be taught. That alone puts the Seanchan at a massive disadvantage. There is no question that for a very long time the White Tower did ignore proper recruiting; you see this both in how successfully the Seanchan round up damane from conquered territory and from how large a group Egwene's rebels gather as they go. However every indication is that those days are over; they want to recruit aggressively now, and Avi's vision gives them several decades in which to do so. More than enough time to play catch up on the untapped talent out there. Plus, and importantly, the Aiel and the Sea Folk have not been slacking on recruitment, and the Aiel definitely can post serious population numbers. Even if we take "most channelers" at its most conservative and say that 51% come from those who learn, that still gives the good guys a 2-1 advantage.

 

Then we factor in the men. This one is trickier to analyse, but only to decide how much of an advantage the good guys have. We know that the Seanchan made copies of the male a'dam, so lets assume mass production. Each male a'dam needs a woman to control it, so no male sul'dam, anyone who can learn either stays home or defects. The male a'dam is also flawed; it requires far more micromanagement to exert control, and eventually allows the man to control the woman as much as she does him. In sum, the male damane drain the female sul'dam pool, require much more supervision and can eventually leave you struggling with them for control in the middle of a battle. Best case scenario the Seanchan walk away with the same 2-1 disadvantage, in reality it's probably much more.

 

Finally lets consider population pools. With Traveling now a thing, the Seanchan have the whole of the Seanchan empire to draw from, a large pool. But the good guys have all of the most populous, prosperous countries of Randland at their disposal, the already-existing White and Black Towers (admittedly somewhat redundant) and, as I mentioned, the Aiel and Sea Folk nations. If the Seanchan have an edge on raw population numbers, and I'm willing to allow that they might, I don't see any evidence to believe that it's significant by the time you've taken into account the entire coalition lined up against them. Plus this assumes that they can throw everything they've got against the good guys, which contradicts what we know about how their society functions. In fact, a society held together by conquest and driven by constant political scheming can't throw their entire army into a war; a significant portion has to stay home and mind the shop. It also assumes that the Seanchan manage to reunite their empire, which is by no means certain given that the entire thing is a collapsing, bloody (literally and figuratively) mess by the beginning of A Memory of Light. They are in the middle of a massive civil war; even if they manage to come through in one piece, losses will be high. Overall, there is no reason to believe that the available pool of channelers that the Seanchan can dip into is significantly larger than the good guys', and several reasons to believe that it may well be smaller even before we add the 2-1 ratio. (Elements left out of this analysis: casualties in the Last Battle, as there's no reason to yet believe it will fall harder on the good guys than anywhere else; defectors on either side, since that is a messy, unpredictable and therefore unreliable number; men who can learn in Seanchan lands, since there's no way to predict that; and, most controversially, conversion of good guys to damane since the good guys can just as easily scoop up damane and sul'dam from the battlefield and work to convert them as well. The failure rate at convincing a damane to stand up for herself is, in my opinion, at the very least offset by the potential success rate at convincing a sul'dam to reach for the One Power)

 

In total, this leaves us with a massive numerical advantage for the good guys. At least twice as many active channelers as the Seanchan can field if every break goes against them. In reality, most likely considerably more. That's enough firepower to lose the war, have a beer, watch some TV and go back out to do it all again. And it doesn't even consider...

 

Skill - This issue is much more subject to debate, however I think that ultimately the good guys have an overwhelming advantage with the skill of their channelers. First, the black and white: the Seanchan can't use circles, including circles of men and women working together. As the books have told us time and again, this is a major disadvantage; circles of channelers are extremely powerful, and when men and women work together they are very strong indeed. The Seanchan lose out on that tactical option from the get go. Second, the more subjective: the damane are considered animals and weapons. That is virtually all of their training and studying, how to make war, and they are incredibly efficient killing machines. But the fact is that the books have actually only shown us a limited number of ways that they actually use the One Power in battle: lightning, fire, explosions, etc. Their bench is wide, but it isn't very deep, there's no indication that they have actually expanded on that at all. Even if they do, they are matched on the other side by far more educated, creative minds on the other side. The good guys don't treat their channelers like animals. Instead they provide channelers with freedom and resources to study and pursue their work, not only in war but in many other fields as well. The good guys have a much wider array of talents available to them from Healing to illusions to weather control and onward, any and all of which can give both tactical and strategic advantage. The damane can make your battlefield blow up. The good guys can get half your troops lost in a blinding rain, sink your supply ships on a sudden rocky shoal, present you with seven fake soldiers for every real one, Heal anyone you injure, cast weaves so that no one can hear the orders that anyone is giving and then make your battlefield blow up.

 

And that's just what they've invented so far. Egwene has made it clear that she wants the days of Aes Sedai laziness to end, the Black Tower has never had that problem and, again, based on Avi's visions they have several decades in which to work. They've begun to encourage invention and innovation across the board while the Seanchan continue to want weapons on leashes and nothing more. It will lead to completely asymmetric warfare, as the good guys have completely unanswered domination with the One Power in every other aspect of warfare outside of the immediate battlefield and the strong potential (likelihood in my opinion) for far greater developments even as weapons. In short, the good guys will explore, experiment and develop, the Seanchan will not. They can't, it would contradict everything the system of damane is built on. Their soldiers can explore and innovate, but to allow the damane to do so would be to admit that they're human not to mention risking a damane finding a way to beat the a'dam, and that would undermine everything.

 

The result will be a Seanchan force that is stuck in the past, firmly rooted in the weapons it has always used, while the good guys develop new techniques and ways to beat those old tactics. They will field troops who simply haven't got anything close to the skill of their counterparts.

 

In sum, I simply can't see any way that Aviendha's visions come true, especially once the entire coalition enters the war. They would have an overwhelming numerical advantage over the Seanchan of channelers who fight with far more skill than the damane slave-soldiers could ever match. So far the Seanchan have achieved breathtaking victories not in battle against armies of equals but by routing forces that don't have the artillery of the One Power on their side. That prohibition is now gone. With it went any realistic hope of success that the Seanchan had for their Return. They'll just be lucky if the Aiel get tired out and decide not to follow them home.

[nool]

That's a good and well thought out post. I have a few issues with it, though. Let's see if I've gotten this quoting function right ;-)

 

 

 

Numbers - Start with the biggest hole of all in the Seanchan strategy, they just can't field the numbers that the good guys can, not nearly. First of all, their damane come only from the ranks of women who have the spark to channel. Everyone who can learn becomes sul'dam. All well and good, except that the books tell us that most channelers come from those who can learn. Seanchan with the spark inborn become damane, the rest become sul'dam and contribute nothing to the battlefield output; they are, for lack of a better term, essentially administrative staff. The good guys, on the other hand, have no such issues. They train both girls with the spark and the far more numerous ones who can be taught. That alone puts the Seanchan at a massive disadvantage. There is no question that for a very long time the White Tower did ignore proper recruiting; you see this both in how successfully the Seanchan round up damane from conquered territory and from how large a group Egwene's rebels gather as they go. However every indication is that those days are over; they want to recruit aggressively now, and Avi's vision gives them several decades in which to do so. More than enough time to play catch up on the untapped talent out there. Plus, and importantly, the Aiel and the Sea Folk have not been slacking on recruitment, and the Aiel definitely can post serious population numbers. Even if we take "most channelers" at its most conservative and say that 51% come from those who learn, that still gives the good guys a 2-1 advantage.

 

I don't agree on this. The Seanchan have a much more organised way of looking for potential channelers than the Aes Sadai. It is said that there are more Aiel channalers than Aes Sadai- I expect this to be true of the Seanchan as well - they simply don't allow anyone with the spark to slip through their net.

 

Finally lets consider population pools. With Traveling now a thing, the Seanchan have the whole of the Seanchan empire to draw from, a large pool. But the good guys have all of the most populous, prosperous countries of Randland at their disposal, the already-existing White and Black Towers (admittedly somewhat redundant) and, as I mentioned, the Aiel and Sea Folk nations. If the Seanchan have an edge on raw population numbers, and I'm willing to allow that they might, I don't see any evidence to believe that it's significant by the time you've taken into account the entire coalition lined up against them. Plus this assumes that they can throw everything they've got against the good guys, which contradicts what we know about how their society functions. In fact, a society held together by conquest and driven by constant political scheming can't throw their entire army into a war; a significant portion has to stay home and mind the shop. It also assumes that the Seanchan manage to reunite their empire, which is by no means certain given that the entire thing is a collapsing, bloody (literally and figuratively) mess by the beginning of A Memory of Light. They are in the middle of a massive civil war; even if they manage to come through in one piece, losses will be high. Overall, there is no reason to believe that the available pool of channelers that the Seanchan can dip into is significantly larger than the good guys', and several reasons to believe that it may well be smaller even before we add the 2-1 ratio. (Elements left out of this analysis: casualties in the Last Battle, as there's no reason to yet believe it will fall harder on the good guys than anywhere else; defectors on either side, since that is a messy, unpredictable and therefore unreliable number; men who can learn in Seanchan lands, since there's no way to predict that; and, most controversially, conversion of good guys to damane since the good guys can just as easily scoop up damane and sul'dam from the battlefield and work to convert them as well. The failure rate at convincing a damane to stand up for herself is, in my opinion, at the very least offset by the potential success rate at convincing a sul'dam to reach for the One Power)

That's assuming a unified Randland, which is very far from the truth. If they can't stop their internal bickering to fight the Dark One, how will they be able to unify to fight the Seanchan invaders?

And how many Randland armies and Randland channelers will be left over after the last battle?

 

Skill - This issue is much more subject to debate, however I think that ultimately the good guys have an overwhelming advantage with the skill of their channelers. First, the black and white: the Seanchan can't use circles, including circles of men and women working together. As the books have told us time and again, this is a major disadvantage; circles of channelers are extremely powerful, and when men and women work together they are very strong indeed. The Seanchan lose out on that tactical option from the get go. Second, the more subjective: the damane are considered animals and weapons. That is virtually all of their training and studying, how to make war, and they are incredibly efficient killing machines. But the fact is that the books have actually only shown us a limited number of ways that they actually use the One Power in battle: lightning, fire, explosions, etc. Their bench is wide, but it isn't very deep, there's no indication that they have actually expanded on that at all. Even if they do, they are matched on the other side by far more educated, creative minds on the other side. The good guys don't treat their channelers like animals. Instead they provide channelers with freedom and resources to study and pursue their work, not only in war but in many other fields as well. The good guys have a much wider array of talents available to them from Healing to illusions to weather control and onward, any and all of which can give both tactical and strategic advantage. The damane can make your battlefield blow up. The good guys can get half your troops lost in a blinding rain, sink your supply ships on a sudden rocky shoal, present you with seven fake soldiers for every real one, Heal anyone you injure, cast weaves so that no one can hear the orders that anyone is giving and then make your battlefield blow up.

The Damane are trained for battle. The Aes Sadai aren't.

[BFG]

*Warning: LONG*

 

The problem I have with Avi's vision (and correct me if I'm straying off topic) is the likelihood of a Seanchan victory. In a post-Last Battle world, I just don't see it happening. Not at all. For the sake of convenience I'll just refer to everyone who isn't trying to enslave and ruin countless lives as "the good guys."

 

First, unfortunate but true, the power of this world comes from channelers. It's been noted many times that someone without the One Power is a child compared to even a weak channeler, and an Aes Sedai/damane/Asha'man/Wind Finder/Wise One (spelling?) with real strength can tear through ranks of ordinary soldiers like tissue paper. The series has demonstrated that time and again, most notably with the battle of Dumai's Wells. Even the vaunted raken are rendered obsolete by creative uses of Traveling, since they can't scout or transport as efficiently and are a paper mache air force compared to an Aes Sedai blasting them out of the sky. In Randland, now that channelers have taken the field, everyone else is pretty much cannon fodder.

 

Speaking of cannons, they've been invented, however I'm excluding them from my analysis. Avi's vision makes reference to the Seanchan having the devices (I think). Even though I would hold that the good guys still keep superiority of numbers, development and tactics with cannons since they'd had them far longer, I'll write that off as a tie for the sake of argument. So the question becomes, really, who has the superiority of channeling?

 

The good guys, no contest, for two reasons: numbers and skill.

 

Numbers - Start with the biggest hole of all in the Seanchan strategy, they just can't field the numbers that the good guys can, not nearly. First of all, their damane come only from the ranks of women who have the spark to channel. Everyone who can learn becomes sul'dam. All well and good, except that the books tell us that most channelers come from those who can learn. Seanchan with the spark inborn become damane, the rest become sul'dam and contribute nothing to the battlefield output; they are, for lack of a better term, essentially administrative staff. The good guys, on the other hand, have no such issues. They train both girls with the spark and the far more numerous ones who can be taught. That alone puts the Seanchan at a massive disadvantage. There is no question that for a very long time the White Tower did ignore proper recruiting; you see this both in how successfully the Seanchan round up damane from conquered territory and from how large a group Egwene's rebels gather as they go. However every indication is that those days are over; they want to recruit aggressively now, and Avi's vision gives them several decades in which to do so. More than enough time to play catch up on the untapped talent out there. Plus, and importantly, the Aiel and the Sea Folk have not been slacking on recruitment, and the Aiel definitely can post serious population numbers. Even if we take "most channelers" at its most conservative and say that 51% come from those who learn, that still gives the good guys a 2-1 advantage.

 

Then we factor in the men. This one is trickier to analyse, but only to decide how much of an advantage the good guys have. We know that the Seanchan made copies of the male a'dam, so lets assume mass production. Each male a'dam needs a woman to control it, so no male sul'dam, anyone who can learn either stays home or defects. The male a'dam is also flawed; it requires far more micromanagement to exert control, and eventually allows the man to control the woman as much as she does him. In sum, the male damane drain the female sul'dam pool, require much more supervision and can eventually leave you struggling with them for control in the middle of a battle. Best case scenario the Seanchan walk away with the same 2-1 disadvantage, in reality it's probably much more.

 

Finally lets consider population pools. With Traveling now a thing, the Seanchan have the whole of the Seanchan empire to draw from, a large pool. But the good guys have all of the most populous, prosperous countries of Randland at their disposal, the already-existing White and Black Towers (admittedly somewhat redundant) and, as I mentioned, the Aiel and Sea Folk nations. If the Seanchan have an edge on raw population numbers, and I'm willing to allow that they might, I don't see any evidence to believe that it's significant by the time you've taken into account the entire coalition lined up against them. Plus this assumes that they can throw everything they've got against the good guys, which contradicts what we know about how their society functions. In fact, a society held together by conquest and driven by constant political scheming can't throw their entire army into a war; a significant portion has to stay home and mind the shop. It also assumes that the Seanchan manage to reunite their empire, which is by no means certain given that the entire thing is a collapsing, bloody (literally and figuratively) mess by the beginning of A Memory of Light. They are in the middle of a massive civil war; even if they manage to come through in one piece, losses will be high. Overall, there is no reason to believe that the available pool of channelers that the Seanchan can dip into is significantly larger than the good guys', and several reasons to believe that it may well be smaller even before we add the 2-1 ratio. (Elements left out of this analysis: casualties in the Last Battle, as there's no reason to yet believe it will fall harder on the good guys than anywhere else; defectors on either side, since that is a messy, unpredictable and therefore unreliable number; men who can learn in Seanchan lands, since there's no way to predict that; and, most controversially, conversion of good guys to damane since the good guys can just as easily scoop up damane and sul'dam from the battlefield and work to convert them as well. The failure rate at convincing a damane to stand up for herself is, in my opinion, at the very least offset by the potential success rate at convincing a sul'dam to reach for the One Power)

 

In total, this leaves us with a massive numerical advantage for the good guys. At least twice as many active channelers as the Seanchan can field if every break goes against them. In reality, most likely considerably more. That's enough firepower to lose the war, have a beer, watch some TV and go back out to do it all again. And it doesn't even consider...

 

Skill - This issue is much more subject to debate, however I think that ultimately the good guys have an overwhelming advantage with the skill of their channelers. First, the black and white: the Seanchan can't use circles, including circles of men and women working together. As the books have told us time and again, this is a major disadvantage; circles of channelers are extremely powerful, and when men and women work together they are very strong indeed. The Seanchan lose out on that tactical option from the get go. Second, the more subjective: the damane are considered animals and weapons. That is virtually all of their training and studying, how to make war, and they are incredibly efficient killing machines. But the fact is that the books have actually only shown us a limited number of ways that they actually use the One Power in battle: lightning, fire, explosions, etc. Their bench is wide, but it isn't very deep, there's no indication that they have actually expanded on that at all. Even if they do, they are matched on the other side by far more educated, creative minds on the other side. The good guys don't treat their channelers like animals. Instead they provide channelers with freedom and resources to study and pursue their work, not only in war but in many other fields as well. The good guys have a much wider array of talents available to them from Healing to illusions to weather control and onward, any and all of which can give both tactical and strategic advantage. The damane can make your battlefield blow up. The good guys can get half your troops lost in a blinding rain, sink your supply ships on a sudden rocky shoal, present you with seven fake soldiers for every real one, Heal anyone you injure, cast weaves so that no one can hear the orders that anyone is giving and then make your battlefield blow up.

 

And that's just what they've invented so far. Egwene has made it clear that she wants the days of Aes Sedai laziness to end, the Black Tower has never had that problem and, again, based on Avi's visions they have several decades in which to work. They've begun to encourage invention and innovation across the board while the Seanchan continue to want weapons on leashes and nothing more. It will lead to completely asymmetric warfare, as the good guys have completely unanswered domination with the One Power in every other aspect of warfare outside of the immediate battlefield and the strong potential (likelihood in my opinion) for far greater developments even as weapons. In short, the good guys will explore, experiment and develop, the Seanchan will not. They can't, it would contradict everything the system of damane is built on. Their soldiers can explore and innovate, but to allow the damane to do so would be to admit that they're human not to mention risking a damane finding a way to beat the a'dam, and that would undermine everything.

 

The result will be a Seanchan force that is stuck in the past, firmly rooted in the weapons it has always used, while the good guys develop new techniques and ways to beat those old tactics. They will field troops who simply haven't got anything close to the skill of their counterparts.

 

In sum, I simply can't see any way that Aviendha's visions come true, especially once the entire coalition enters the war. They would have an overwhelming numerical advantage over the Seanchan of channelers who fight with far more skill than the damane slave-soldiers could ever match. So far the Seanchan have achieved breathtaking victories not in battle against armies of equals but by routing forces that don't have the artillery of the One Power on their side. That prohibition is now gone. With it went any realistic hope of success that the Seanchan had for their Return. They'll just be lucky if the Aiel get tired out and decide not to follow them home.

 

Love it!

 

Not sure I necessarily agree with the rest of it, also not necessarily saying I disagree. I think their are too many unknown variables at this point.

Which groups of channelers fight at TG, how many members of each group survive.

 

From the Seanchan perspective the biggest problem would appear to be male channelers as at the moment they (Se) have no way of detecting them until afterwards, they (BT) haven't sworn any oaths, and they (Se) have no means of controlling them. BUT as of ToM the BT looks to be in serious trouble with either DF BT or 13x13d BT, meaning that assuming the Light wins their won't (or may not) be many male channelers left.

The WT oaths are a massive problem when it comes to fighting the Seanchan because the Seanchan will always get the first blow which may be all they need.

WF seem incompetant at the moment, or at least we haven't yet seen anything good from them. They also have massive problems with channeling fire (and possible earth), so although there may be potential coming up with hurricanes as weapons, I think generally speaking a fireball is going to be faster.

The Aiel, up for debate.

 

On the other hand, the Seanchan are probably going to be at TG as well, meaning they'll sustain losses.

Additionally their homeland is in chaos, so I don't think they'll get future supplies from there for a while.

On the other hand, Mat is now married to Tuon, eventually tehy'll pick up on his general(ling) skills which would give them a huge boost.

 

Tricky one to call

[MountaineerWV]

It's threads like this that I will miss most about WoT. We are quite a bit of effort postulating a idea and then offering proof about something that won't even come to pass. It's freakin awesome. Where else do people do this...Politics? Stab me in the eye with a screw driver.

 

Overall, pretty good analysis.

 

I have to go to work, but I do have some thoughts on the number of channellers and the number of non channellers, and the effect that cannons will have.

[methegrate]

Thanks, glad you guys like it! I'm new at this, so I haven't figured out the proper quoting system yet. Still, pressing on! Here are a few additional thoughts.

 

Olver's Grin, "I don't agree on this. The Seanchan have a much more organised way of looking for potential channelers than the Aes Sadai. It is said that there are more Aiel channalers than Aes Sadai- I expect this to be true of the Seanchan as well - they simply don't allow anyone with the spark to slip through their net."

 

I agree with you as of right now, but don't forget that according to Avi's vision the Aiel don't start the war for twenty years, and the rest of the nations for closer to forty. Added to that we know that the reason for the low Aes Sedai numbers is changing. Historically they've always (mostly) waited for girls to come to them; frankly in a medieval society where people rarely ever travel more than 20 miles from home it's a wonder there are any AS left at all. Egwene is changing all that. Her rebels scooped up everyone they could get on their march to the Tower and she's said on several occasions that she plans to keep doing so. Plus she's keeping everyone who fails the test and retires, the Kin, associated with the Tower. Poor recruiting and attrition are the reasons for low Aes Sedai numbers, and they've already decided to address that.

 

"That's assuming a unified Randland, which is very far from the truth. If they can't stop their internal bickering to fight the Dark One, how will they be able to unify to fight the Seanchan invaders?

And how many Randland armies and Randland channelers will be left over after the last battle?"

 

How many good guys will be left over after the Last Battle is a good question, but we don't know that the Seanchan will be spared the fighting either. There's no reason to know whether one side or the other will take the worst of it, so I'd call that one a wash. That said, I do think there's reason to believe that the Seanchan might take worse casualties in the Last Battle. In (I think) Shadow Rising, Rand has a vision through the Portal Stone where the Seanchan had conquered the entire continent but then were completely outmatched by the bad guys. At least we know that, if they had to face the Dark One alone, the Seanchan would get rolled. As to unification, definitely call me out if I misread the section, but my interpretation of Avi's vision is that it actually says that eventually all the nations join the war against the Seanchan. It references Andor, Cairhien, Tear and Illian all having fought them at least.

 

 

"The Damane are trained for battle. The Aes Sadai aren't."

A good point, right now. But the Aes Sedai (et al.) will have decades to train and prepare, with an existential threat on their doorstep and the memory of the Last Battle and everything they learned from it fresh in their minds. Plus the Black Tower is always trained for battle, and we know that in Avi's vision they somehow survive and thrive because there's a reference to them fighting in secret after losing their fortress. I may be making an assumption here but I don't think it's a very big one to say that the Aes Sedai will prepare to defend themselves against the empire that wants to chain and enslave them now that they've seen the danger firsthand, especially with an Amyrlin who's changing a lot of their self destructive, naval gazing tendencies. The other channelers certainly will.

BFG

I agree, who fights and survives is definitely a giant question mark, but don't forget that the homeland being in chaos will mean not only cut supplies but also very real (potentially huge) losses as well. This is a civil war, not only a potentially bloody affair but one where every loss on either side weakens the Seanchan.

"BUT as of ToM the BT looks to be in serious trouble with either DF BT or 13x13d BT, meaning that assuming the Light wins their won't (or may not) be many male channelers left."

We know that there will be though, at least in vision-land. There's a specific reference to the Black Tower fighting the war against the Seanchan, then losing their fortress. Even if they sustain heavy losses, the institution will survive and have a long time to rebuild.

I agree with you completely on the Oaths, that's something I should have included up top. They will be a very big problem for the AS, but I don't think an insurmountable one. They have other options for disabling the damane, many other channelers available, if they send themselves or their Warders directly into the fight they're unshackled and (in case of an existential threat) the Oath Rod can release them from an Oath, or modify it as needed. The last I'll admit is unlikely considering Egwene's foolish adherence to them, but we know they aren't irrevocably bound. I'm not sure I can see Mat giving them much advantage as I can't imagine him helping them with that fight. If anything he'll be trying to undermine the system of damane.

I definitely agree with you that there are a lot of variables out there, I'm just not sure that I can realistically see them breaking strong enough in favor of the Seanchan to make up for their very real disadvantages.

[nool]

Very good points, mate! I'm just on LoC on my first re-read, so I tend to forget to take stuff that will happen later in the series into account.

I had totally forgotten that there's such a big period of time between the Last Battle and the Seanchan war in Avi's vision. That does indeed leave room for a lot of changes - both in Randland and among the Aes Sadai and among the Seanchans.

[BFG]

It's threads like this that I will miss most about WoT. We are quite a bit of effort postulating a idea and then offering proof about something that won't even come to pass. It's freakin awesome. Where else do people do this...Politics? Stab me in the eye with a screw driver.

 

Overall, pretty good analysis.

 

I have to go to work, but I do have some thoughts on the number of channellers and the number of non channellers, and the effect that cannons will have.

 

I had a similar thought on a Horn thread where we started debating what would have happened if a DF had blown the horn instead of Mat :)

 

Don't know anything about real war, so haven't thought about the effect of cannons. Again interesting to think what Mat would do, he now has the crossbow crank(?) and the canons that Tuon would really like to get, but so far Mat is against the idea.