Mafia - A Christmas Tale - Mafia Won

[WWWwombat]

Yeah that would be a stupid lie wouldn't it?  I still don't understand why Elli would have blocked Locke though.

 

Right now I'm suspicious of everyone but I'm most suspicious of Led.  Pale might be at the top of my list if Lily didn't find him innocent.  As it stands, he takes spot number 2 on my list, although my list really isn't clear beyond the first slot.  I'm leaning towards thinking meercatman is town at the moment because of meesh's point about the night one result.  Reyoru has been acting scummy as hell, but he would have to be a mafia mason to be scum and I think that's unlikely.  Lily I trust the most of anyone besides myself.  Meesh I think is town, but she could be playing me big time.  In the end, I know I'm not going to be sure of anything and I just hate that.  I'll just have to practice my decision making under uncertainty.  Also, why is everyone assuming there are only 2 mafia left lately?  There could be 3 and this could be mega LyLo.

[LedZepMan]

i dunno about pale, possibly godfather, possibly not. i dunno what to think

 

the point of the matter is that a couple of people are LLL. And i do believe that MCM is one of those LLL.

[mmeeshal]

::) Wombat, trying to throw suspicion on me?  Wow, kind of scummy, in my opinion.  Why on earth would you trust the uncontested Finder, but not the uncontested Healer, who has done nothing but try to help the Town win?  Rey wasn't sure there was a Finder at all in this game, and just because you blocked Lily Night 1 doesn't actually mean Lily is the Finder; she could be lying about that, you know.  As in, she had another night action than a Finding, but was still really blocked.

Anyway, my point is, Lily is just as confirmed as I am.  We have no proof that I'm the Healer, but we have no proof that Lily is the Finder.  We only have supportive circumstances.  I haven't protected anyone successfully, but the only person Lily viewed successfully was Pale, and we don't even know if he is really innocent or not.

 

If you trust one of us, you should trust both.

 

Oh, and Wombat, we've been treating this like LyLo, if you didn't notice.  No one's actually said "There are probably only 2 mafia left."  Right now, I personally am focused on finding any scum I can.  We can only lynch one at a time, regardless of how many are left.  If we lynch scum today, and then tomorrow, and the game's not over, then we'll know there were 3 left.  But I was under the impression that we were treating today like it was LyLo.  I know I have been.

 

I had a thought..roles people have claimed/have:

 

1. Jelly--Roleless innocent

2. Crusher--Innocent doublevoting mason

3. Chrono--roleless townie

4. Rey--innocent mason

5. Lily--Finder

6. Locke--Innocent Commuter

7. Pale--no claim, vanilla townie?

8. Dragon--roleless innocent

9. Elli--mafia roleblocker

10. Zep--innocent miller

11. Alanna--roleless innocent

12. Wombat--Jailkeeper

13. Meesh--Healer

14. Meercat--Townie Tracker

15. Al Jenn--innocent mason

 

Okay, the way it looks, everyone but Pale has claimed a role.  I *think* Pale has said he's a vanilla Townie, though.

 

Anyway...I doubt that Crusher was the only mason with a role, but Al Jenn didn't have another one, so maybe Rey has one he's not sharing?

And with masons being confirmed in this game...and having a finder and healer...I'm going to have to say I don't believe Wombat and Meercat.  I don't think the game would have a tracker AND a finder, and a jailkeeper AND a healer.  No way.  They don't seem to fit.

 

So I think MCM and Wombat are scum.

[WWWwombat]

Maybe you should look at it from my point of view, meesh.  If you were a jailkeeper in this game, how much would you trust someone who claimed to be a healer?  In any event, I wasn't trying to throw suspicion on you.  I was letting everyone know my thoughts.  I don't trust anyone in this game any further than i can throw them at this point.  I believe you are the healer, but I'm considering all possibilities.  I'd be stupid not to.

 

It is LyLo imo, but I have seen people say things like "the two remaining scum."  What I'm saying is there could be 3 scum so we have to be even more wary and even more thorough than if we knew there were only 2 scum.

 

As for my claim, I can't fault you for being skeptical.  It's good that you are skeptical.  You have, however, come to the wrong conclusion.  Like I said before, were meercatman and I scum together, I think I would have left meercatman out to dry rather than come up with a roleclaim that would probsbly not be believed and that would put myself under serious scrutiny.  I can't think of anything else to say to convince you right now, but feel free to ask any question of me that you would like.

[WWWwombat]

Be back in 2 or 3 hours.

[LilyElizabeth]

Wow! One day off with Min and friends and you people post a novel. I'm done trying to figure this out with my head. It's spinning. I'm going with my gut now.

 

We have seven players left alive -

 

D) Reyoru (Mason?)

E) Lily (finder)

G) Pale (godfather?)

J) Ledzepman (miller?)

L) Wombat (jailkeeper?)

M) Meesh (healer?)

N) Meercatman (tracker?)

 

Meesh, I believe you, because I already thought you were the healer before you revealed - going with my gut.

 

Pale, I think you might be the godfather, but since you viewed innocent, and are the ONLY innocent I've found, you get to live long enough for me to take you up on your offer to view you again. I'd suggest everyone else let me do that.

 

Rey, I guess you are what you say you are, since Al Jenn said you were and he's confirmed by a coroner's report. If not for that, I'd seriously be questioning you right now.

 

So, it comes down to Zeppy, Wombat, and Meercat. I'm leaning towards the Wombat/Meercat alliance, myself. It could be all three, though.

 

My gut says to vote [glow=red,2,300]Meercatman[/glow], so that's what I'm doing. It's unlikely I'll be on again before the deadline to change it. Sorry, guys.

 

 

 

[mmeeshal]

Okay, on the 3-hour drive back from my grandparents' house, I had nothing to do but think and listen to music, since it was already dark when we left.  So, the conclusion I came to...

 

I have a theory.  It seems totally crazy, but before you guys dismiss it out of hand completely, I ask that you at least consider it without bias first.

 

Okay.  This whole game, my gut has been nagging and nagging at me that something's not right.  Every time I was sure someone was scum, it was because all the reasons were there for them to be.  But my gut was always nagging me that I wasn't going on the right path.  However, absolutely none of the options we've discussed to date feel totally right.  So either my gut is just insane this game, or else the theory I want to propose is the right one.  It's the only one that feels like the pieces fit; it's the only one that feels right to me.

 

Okay, here it is.  Again, bear with me.  It's crazy-sounding at first, I know, but I didn't just base this on my gut alone.

 

Lily and Wombat, and maybe one other person, are scum together.  Yes, I know, Lily's the uncontested finder.  I get that.  But what if there is no finder? 

I believe Meercat.  His claim was the one that seemed most scummy, really, but his is the one that makes the least sense coming from scum, because of the Night 1 results.  Honestly, it would've been so easy and logical to say Elli blocked Lily, if Meercat and Wombat were scum together.  No one would've looked twice at that one.

Now, one problem I had with the Meercat/Wombat pairing was that while it seemed too convenient to be real, Meercat's claim just doesn't fit coming from scum.  But, if one was lying, the other had to be too, right?  Because if Wombat was lying, then SOMEONE had to roleblock Lily, so obviously Meercat was lying about Elli's night action.  And if Meercat was lying, then Wombat couldn't have targeted Lily because Elli would've then.

 

But what no one considered is...what if NO ONE roleblocked Lily, because she's not the Finder?  Lily claimed Finder early, as a mafia ploy, that's turned out a lot better than anyone would've expected.  I'd imagine they were expecting a counter-claim by now, which hasn't come.  That may sound kind of far-fetched, but Lily said it herself, she'll try anything in a mafia game.  And it would explain her convenient lack of a viewing because of being roleblocked on Night 1, it would explain why she only found an innocent on Night 2 (bet they knew Elli wasn't around so it would make sense for her not to be roleblocked), and it would explain her convenient viewing of Elli Night 3 when she was practically guaranteed to be scum and also about to be modkilled.  She's played up the "I'm sorry I'm so helpless" thing a lot, and has also been very quick to attack anyone who throws suspicion or doubt on her story (Pale doubting her claim, and Meercat's claim that Elli roleblocked Locke Night 1).  She's gotten away with every scummy thing she's done because "she's the finder."

 

So, Wombat.  If Lily is scum, and Wombat is scum, but Meercat is innocent...Meercat blew Lily's cover by saying Elli didn't actually roleblock Lily, though no one really noticed (except Lily, who went on the offensive quite snappishly).  So Wombat stepped in with another plausible but unlikely role, that would help validate Meercat and Lily at the same time.  He had to validate Meercat, because I'd already proven he'd gotten one night action right, and so it was likely Meercat wasn't lying.  Why did Wombat's reveal seem more genuine than Meercat's to me?  Probably had Lily to guide him on some points he should hit to sound genuine.  She's the only one who's experienced enough to do that.

 

 

I know it seems kind of out-there, but just think about it, guys. 

The ONLY problem I have with my own theory is that if Meercat is telling the truth, that means Zep is lying, and right now I tend to believe him.  Also, Meercat acts scummy as all get-out.

 

I just wanted to submit that to you for contemplation, guys, because it's the only thing that finally feels right to me, and it makes a lot of sense, even though it has its flaws.

 

Also, since I doubt I'll be on in time to vote for the deadline, I think Wombat must be mafia, regardless whether Meercat or Lily is his scumbuddy.

 

So [glow=red,2,300]vote Wombat[/glow].

[LilyElizabeth]

Wow! All I can say is I wish I could have come up with something like that. Thanks for your confidence in my mafia ability.

 

I can go either way on those two, so I'll switch to Wombat.

 

[glow=green,2,300]Unvote[/glow]

[glow=red,2,300]Vote Wombat[/glow]

 

 

[WWWwombat]

You know she's accusing you too right Lily?-.-  I like your theory Meesh and I almost wish it were true because then I would be in on an AWESOME PLOY.  The truth remains, however, that i am innocent.  I really am the jailkeeper and I have been composing all of my posts by myself.  I have not been in private communication about this game with anyone save Talya.  The reason my reveal sounded genuine is because it was.

 

I find your choice of three top suspects to be ironic because I know I am innocent, I am pretty confident in Lily's claim as the finder, and I would bet on meercatman being innocent given his correct guess of your night action and his bold claim of Elli not blocking Lily.  Maybe by the time the deadline rolls around we will have come full circle and you will suspect the bad guys again.  My vote remains on LZM.  I am confident that he is scum.  He claimed miller with 2 votes on him for Pete's sake.  If you are indeed townie, as I suspect you are, the joke is on all of us that the mafia has you suspecting Lily and me of being mafia.  If you are mafia, which in my opinion is possible but unlikely, then my hat is off to you for a masterful performance.  I implore you and Lily to unvote as the mafia could easily hammer me now, all but insuring their victory.

 

Finally, I would ask that you and any townie reading this remember Occam's Razor and parsimony.  All other considerations being equal, the simplest explanation is the best.

[LilyElizabeth]

Of course I know she's accusing me, too, Wombat. I've already offered to prove my innocence by my coroner's report, although now that the roleblocker's gone, that wouldn't really be such a great idea for the town. What more can I do except find scum at night?

 

However, I have three suspects, Meesh has three suspects, and you happen to be on both lists, so it makes sense for us to vote for the same person.

 

Of course you're going to say you're innocent. Everyone has said they are innocent and even claimed a role (except Pale, but I've viewed him as innocent and am viewing him again tonight.) Somebody's obviously lying, and I know it's not me, so maybe, just maybe, it's you. My gut says it is.

 

 

[meercatman]

Meesh, that is amazing logic. I like it. I agree with all that, so [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] vote [glow=red,2,300]wombat[/glow]

 

And before, I would have given you credit for the whold led miller thing, except I just wanted to feel smart about 1 thing i said in this game ;)

 

So now, for me, mostly cos of what meesh has said, The 3 on my suspect list are:

 

1)Wombat

1)Led

?)Lily

[WWWwombat]

How about you vote the guy who claimed miller after getting 2 votes and after meercat claimed he had a night action?

[a pale tanned lover]

Good logic

[glow=red,2,300]Wombat[/glow]

 

[WWWwombat]

Well, you guys are lynching a really powerful role right now so good job to the scum on this one.  I hope when Talya vindicates me, it isn't too late for you townies who will be left to wake up and get your acts together, but I think the game will be over as I think there are 3 mafia left.

[Reyoru]

This a tough decision.

 

I hope we know what we're doing.

[glow=red,2,300]

Wombat[/glow]

[mmeeshal]

Rey, we never know what we're doing.  We can only guess.

 

Deadline's in an hour, got home sooner than I'd planned, but want to take a nap or something before I go to work. (stupid work)

 

I know it often sounds like I keep changing my mind, but I've said it before, I see reasons why Zep and/or Pale could be scum, and I see reasons why Wombat/Meercat (or Wombat/Lily) could be scum.  I don't think I'm going to change my vote, because Wombat would still be hammered and his role seems to me the most unlikely and hard to believe (albeit the one that sounded the most genuine out of all of them).  But part of me is going to keep wondering if we should've lynched Zep all the way until we find out the coroner report on Wombat.  Honestly, guys, the mafia in this game have done a good job, because I can't point my finger at any one person and say with absolute certainty "You are scum and nothing you can say or do is going to sway that opinion."

[WWWwombat]

Zep is scum and I doubt he could sway my decision on that.

[WWWwombat]

Of course I could always be wrong.

[a pale tanned lover]

[glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

[Talya]

Day 4

 

Wombat (4) Meesh, Lily, Meercat, Pale, Reyoru

Led (1) Reyoru, Meesh, Pale, Reyoru, Meercatman

Meercat (0) Meesh, Reyoru, Pale, Lily, Wombat, Led

Meesh (0) Wombat, Led

 

A tense day ensues and arguments are quite heated. The voing changes an changes again until eventually a decision is reached. It must be Wombat. Who else could it be. He is dragged and tied to a dart board. One by one you all have a game of darts, ignoring the blood dripping on the floor. No one took account of the score, vengence for some was more in their minds.

 

It wasn't long before Wombats bosy hung there with more holes than a sieve!

Wombat - an innocent jailkeeper is dead.

 

It is now night. You have 48 hours for your night actions.

 

 

 

[a pale tanned lover]

So he was telling the truth, there must only be two mafia left then otherwise it would be game over now.

[Reyoru]

:(

[LilyElizabeth]

Well, let's see what Pale's second viewing shows. I'm thinking he MUST be godfather. Somebody around here has to be scum. Gods, I hope I'm not wrong about Meesh. She's good enough to have pulled this off, but if she hasn't been protecting me, how have I stayed alive this long?

 

 

[WWWwombat]

Good luck, townies.  Also, Talya, you forgot my vote <3

[meercatman]

OK that really stuffs things up. It must be then that Led and Pale are the remaining scum. It's  the only thing that makes sense.