90's Action Hero Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins

[Verbal32]

1 hour ago, Tigraine said:

 

You know the alignment of my target? Neat, cause I sure don't.

 

And yes it really does.  Mafia knew i wasn't mafia.  So they treated me like they did townies.  You know this.  Kinda weird that you're pretending not to.

 

 

 

Weird question, obviously I have no clue what the alignment of your target is.  I like the shade attempt, though.  Still:  DENIED.

 

So scum treated you like a townie.  There's no difference to analyzing your death vs any other townie......which was my point.

[Ironeyes]

I'll come back and vote her again after my test no better prospects emerge (read: if everyone isn't willling to lynch Key)

[Ithillian Turambar]

20 hours ago, Ironeyes said:

Wait... I didn't account for the hider at all. But he's claimed so mafia won't presumably waste their shot there. Probably doesn't make a difference. 

Did you do this again?

[Verbal32]

2 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Even if her target is town AND she hits tonight, we wake up tomorrow with 1 scum and 3 town. That's better than 2 scum and 4 town, which is what we get if we lynch her. 

 

All this assumes we lynch scum today.

 

Let's say we don't.  Then what?

 

If Tig hits her target and they are town, we enter tomorrow with 2 town, 2 scum, and 1 3p.  That's pretty bad.  Even a scum lynch then loses us the game, as the SK and mafia both kill people.

 

 

Conclusion:  unless you're weighing a 100% scum lynch or a 100% 3p lynch, you have to lynch the guaranteed non-town player almost all the time.

[Tigraine]

1 hour ago, Tigraine said:

I fully understand what you meant - look for mafia to have treated you like you were town because they didn’t know the difference. 

 

*** I removed the first part of his quote to give @keyholder21 her answer. i am in no way trying to take it out of context or misrep his quote***

 

 

[Verbal32]

AND all this assumes DPR doesn't get killed in the crossfire.

 

Super bad odds, you lynch the 3p every time in this instance.  How is this not obvious to everybody?

 

 

Am I missing something?

[Verbal32]

@DPR

 

Poke holes - is this not an obvious situation?

[Verbal32]

7 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Even if her target is town AND she hits tonight, we wake up tomorrow with 1 scum and 3 town. That's better than 2 scum and 4 town, which is what we get if we lynch her. 

 

No, it isn't.  Both situations are MYLO, but at least one of them doesn't have a 3p who could take out townies involved.

[Tigraine]

5 minutes ago, Verbal32 said:

 

Weird question, obviously I have no clue what the alignment of your target is.  I like the shade attempt, though.  Still:  DENIED.

 

So scum treated you like a townie.  There's no difference to analyzing your death vs any other townie......which was my point.

 

I already stated that I took your post different than you meant it so calm yourself.

 

And yes, that was my point as well. You learn as much from my death as a townie even though I'm 3p. So when I said there was still stuff to be learned and you said "not really" i obviously thought you were denying that. 

You've got your panties in a bunch cause I said you're holding back...it's adorable. 

[Tigraine]

Ftr, if i hit my target, I'm removed from the game having met my win condition.  Y'all need all the info.  

 

I've fought for town the whole time so even if you lynch me...as long as town wins, I'm giving myself some credit for it lol

[keyholder21]

5 minutes ago, Tigraine said:

Ftr, if i hit my target, I'm removed from the game having met my win condition.  Y'all need all the info.  

 

I've fought for town the whole time so even if you lynch me...as long as town wins, I'm giving myself some credit for it lol

But if you don't, you become an SK.

 

I have to get to class, unfortunately. I don't see how not lynching the 3p is good for town.  If she hits her target tonight, that's another townie out and possibly hider as well.  If her target is lynched today, she becomes an SK and still has the possibility of killing townies.  

 

I'm going to Vote: Tigs

 

I will try to get back on later if I can.

[DPR]

21 minutes ago, Verbal32 said:

@DPR

 

Poke holes - is this not an obvious situation?

My role pm reads how it reads. Maybe Marsh got another one lol

[Ithillian Turambar]

Official Vote Count

Tigs (3/5):  Verb, Ithi, Key

Key (2/5): Tig, Dice

 

Not Voting
Nyn, DPR, Marsh

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Countdown to EOD.

Edited May 1 by Ithillian Turambar
Corrected

[DPR]

Gimme a min

[Ithillian Turambar]

43 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Catching up as fast as I can. My copyright law final is in 20 minutes so it's gonna be a quick pop in and then I'll be back in a few hours. 

 

Saw the Tig claim. Unvote pending a counterclaim. Now that we know who the condemner is, she's way less of a threat. It's much higher upside for town to lynch scum today. Either way we enter night with two non town, but if we lynch the condemner then we guarantee that those two are both anti town rather than one being neutral for the moment. I'd rather the condemner be the last non town we lynch if at all. 

 

Do you think anyone will counterclaim the Condemner role?

 

Did you originally vote for her because you thought she was mafia or 3rd party?

 

Do you remember she tried to get you Lynched because she said your slot had lied about somehow secretly knowing the Condemner role lol

 

Does anyone else understand the maths here?

[DPR]

53 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Catching up as fast as I can. My copyright law final is in 20 minutes so it's gonna be a quick pop in and then I'll be back in a few hours. 

 

Saw the Tig claim. Unvote pending a counterclaim. Now that we know who the condemner is, she's way less of a threat. It's much higher upside for town to lynch scum today. Either way we enter night with two non town, but if we lynch the condemner then we guarantee that those two are both anti town rather than one being neutral for the moment. I'd rather the condemner be the last non town we lynch if at all. 

All of this is nonsense.

 

Tig is the same threat now unless we lynch her. 
 

If she hits her target, we either lose mafia or town, but Mathilda sounds like town… And Tig is removed from the game. We lose 2 players. 

 

If she hits her target, they are town and I’m behind the target, we lose 3 players. 
 

And the mafia get a NK. 
 

Odds here are just terrible. 
 

The only play is to lynch Tig and then I can’t hide tonight so I don’t risk double kills. 
 

Dunno what Marsh is going on about lol - town has to eliminate all threats to win

[Nynaeve]

vote: tigs

[Tigraine]

vote: tigs 

 

it's done.  Never been so glad to be dead in my life 

 

@Darthe idk if y'all still do dead threads but if so... beam me up scotty

[Ironeyes]

Geez, got piled on. Not that it matters now since she seems to have self-hammered. I just wanted to take some time to consider every option since the deadline isn't for hours.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Official Vote Count

Tigs (5/5):  Verb, Ithi, Key, Nyn, Tig

Key (1/5): Dice

 

Not Voting
DPR, Marsh

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Countdown to EOD.

[Ironeyes]

Now that I'm not rushing to get to an exam, I can explain myself. 

Earlier in the day phase I posted some math. I came to the conclusion that lynching scum today was a better outcome than lynching the 3p. 

Then Tigraine claimed. To be honest, I didn't believe the claim due to the inconsistencies--she sussed me for being 3p while knowing that I wasn't, forgot about her own BPV, etc. What I was hoping might happen is that I'd make the case that leaving the 3p alive, which would encourage the real condemner to claim. Then we get to lynch scum today and make winning the game a lot more likely. The backup case was I move my vote back to Tigraine near the deadline and we lynch non-town anyway. 

 

There was no losing scenario here. It was ALL upside, but I guess nobody else even bothered to think about it. 

[Ironeyes]

1 hour ago, Ithillian Turambar said:

Did you do this again?

Hider introduces too many variables for quick math done while walking from my parking structure to campus.

 

1 hour ago, Verbal32 said:

 

All this assumes we lynch scum today.

 

Let's say we don't.  Then what?

 

If Tig hits her target and they are town, we enter tomorrow with 2 town, 2 scum, and 1 3p.  That's pretty bad.  Even a scum lynch then loses us the game, as the SK and mafia both kill people.

 

 

Conclusion:  unless you're weighing a 100% scum lynch or a 100% 3p lynch, you have to lynch the guaranteed non-town player almost all the time.

 

 

1 hour ago, Verbal32 said:

 

No, it isn't.  Both situations are MYLO, but at least one of them doesn't have a 3p who could take out townies involved.

You misunderstood me. The two situations I was talking about are 1) we lynch the condemner today and 2) we don't AND she removes herself from the game by hitting her target AND her target was town. In both, there's no 3p any more. 

 

1 hour ago, Ithillian Turambar said:

 

Do you think anyone will counterclaim the Condemner role?

 

Did you originally vote for her because you thought she was mafia or 3rd party?

 

Do you remember she tried to get you Lynched because she said your slot had lied about somehow secretly knowing the Condemner role lol

 

Does anyone else understand the maths here?

Yeah, I actually did think someone could counterclaim. I didn't believe her claim at first read and my snap decision was that she was trying to save herself because you and DPR and I had talked a few pages back about how we'd rather lynch scum than 3p today. 

[Ironeyes]

Lol, Verb NOT condemner confirmed, as he clearly thinks the condemner becomes a SK by hitting the target, when what actually happens is that the condemner wins and gets removed. 

[DPR]

5 minutes ago, Ironeyes said:

Lol, Verb NOT condemner confirmed, as he clearly thinks the condemner becomes a SK by hitting the target, when what actually happens is that the condemner wins and gets removed. 

Verb was pointing out that if we lynch the C’s target, the C does in fact become a SK. 
 

Focus on your studies young man! 🤣

[Ithillian Turambar]

Am so glad I'm not young and having to do studying, homework and exams anymore.