The New Year is coming!!

[Elder_Haman]

First and foremost, let us all take a moment to bid farewell to 2020 like Mat bidding farewell to the Gholam. I can only hope that whatever malevolent spirit that cursed us with this last year suffers the same fate...

 

Moving on...

We now know that we won't be getting any new content today. My previous prediction of a definitive release announcement is hanging on by a thread. (I think it only fair to count a hypothetical 1/6 announcement as being close enough to the New Year to count).

 

But there is still hope!! 

It's really not possible to avoid linking the turning of the calendar with the turning of The Wheel. Plenty of built in symbolism that would make a New Year's Day/Eve announcement appropriate. You've also got the New Year's Day college football games, which draw large television audiences. 

As we know the Feast of Lights occurs on the last day of the old year and the first day of the new. It is traditional on First Day to give alms generously. Perhaps our friends at Prime have a little First Day gift in store?

 

Time will tell...

[Borderlander]

Although I have many a' thought about Thom's guitar and his inside-out cloak (?), I find it most interesting that the guitar and Rand's sword were revealed 3 weeks apart, after nearly 3 months since glimpsing the Winespring. I think it is safe to assume that somebody behind the scenes on Rafe's crew—if not Rafe himself—has some kind of plan in place about what they are going to show us, and when. This is a 100$ million production; they are not flying by the seat of their pants. I mean, *maybe* they work these little videos up on the fly, without much forethought, but if following entertainment news in general has taught me anything the last several years, it is that every detail of these productions (in front of the camera and behind it) is mapped out fairly meticulously. So, they have a plan. And that plan has led them to release two cool Twitter videos 3 weeks apart. Now, we have to (have to, I say!) ask ourselves which is more likely:

 

1) That their master plan calls for the timeline of these reveals to elongate again, dragging things out, only releasing snippets of this and that seemingly at random, here and there, driving fans nutty? Or...

 

2) That the 3-week window between the 2 highly polished videos is more suggestive of a 'condensing' of the timeline, and that more frequent and well-crafted reveals, perhaps spaces by 2 or 3 weeks, and then by 1 or 2 weeks, and then by a week, and then by days, will lead to a Grand Reveal?

[Elder_Haman]

@Borderlander - I think you have got it exactly right. There's clearly been a significant uptick in the number of mentions the show is getting. (I posted a batch of links in the poll question to illustrate this). The release of the videos, the audio clip, etc. are certainly not done just out of the goodness of Amazon's heart. All of these releases are part of a pre-determined marketing strategy.

 

It's pretty clear now that the show will be out in 2021. The only question now is will release in the Spring/Summer or Fall/Winter. I'm guessing it will be sooner rather than later.

 

[mistborn82]

My guess is fall or winter, if it's 2021.

[Elder_Haman]

5 minutes ago, mistborn82 said:

My guess is fall or winter, if it's 2021.

At this point, there's no reason to think it won't be 2021. 

[Thrasymachus]

I tend to agree that they'll stick to 2021.  But if the rumors of pick-up shooting in April still to do are true, it will most likely be fall, possibly winter of 2021.  Which would be the best time for a release anyway.

[Carebear Sedai]

Fall/Winter 2021 makes no sense to me, and I'm not sure what the estimate is based on.

 

If you've been following LoTR on Prime news, you'd be aware that the show will finish filming its season 1 in June. The general consensus is that the show will then air winter of 2021/2022, which coincides with The Fellowship of The Ring 20th anniversary in December. And there's just no way, Amazon is gonna have their two big fantasy shows airing so close to each other. That's not even counting Amazon's extremely popular series, The Expanse final season and The Boys season 3 expected out in the same period. 

 

The other conflict is the highly anticipated second season of Witcher coming out mid August. It would be stupid to wait to release Wheel of Time after then IMO. It would be even stupider to sandwich Wheel of Time between Witcher and the Lord of the Ring show, knowing it's gonna get lost in the competition of far more popular fantasy IPs. 

 

I think late spring, early summer sounds about right for Wheel of Time.

[SinisterDeath]

4 minutes ago, Carebear Sedai said:

Fall/Winter 2021 makes no sense to me, and I'm not sure what the estimate is based on.

 

If you've been following LoTR on Prime news, you'd be aware that the show will finish filming its season 1 in June. The general consensus is that the show will then air winter of 2021/2022, which coincides with The Fellowship of The Ring 20th anniversary in December. And there's just no way, Amazon is gonna have their two big fantasy shows airing so close to each other. That's not even counting Amazon's extremely popular series, The Expanse final season and The Boys season 3 expected out in the same period. 

 

The other conflict is the highly anticipated second season of Witcher coming out mid August. It would be stupid to wait to release Wheel of Time after then IMO. It would be even stupider to sandwich Wheel of Time between Witcher and the Lord of the Ring show, knowing it's gonna get lost in the competition of far more popular fantasy IPs. 

 

I think late spring, early summer sounds about right for Wheel of Time.

Remember, post production, editing across the board are all backlogged due to covid. 
It's entirely possible "those" dates might get pushed back 6 months. If WoT was supposed to release this spring, but gets pushed to fall? That could push those other shows to spring...

[Elder_Haman]

10 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Remember, post production, editing across the board are all backlogged due to covid. 
It's entirely possible "those" dates might get pushed back 6 months. If WoT was supposed to release this spring, but gets pushed to fall? That could push those other shows to spring...

I just have a hard time believing that COVID pushed post-production work back that dramatically. All of that work is digital and can be collaborated on digitally.

 

The main problem with COVID involves the actual filming because you obviously have to have a bunch of people in the same place to do that. But most businesses that can adapt have adapted.

 

I'm with @Carebear Sedaia fall release just makes absolutely no sense. In fact, I'd be far less surprised if it released in February than I would if it released in October.

[Carebear Sedai]

14 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Remember, post production, editing across the board are all backlogged due to covid. 
It's entirely possible "those" dates might get pushed back 6 months. If WoT was supposed to release this spring, but gets pushed to fall? That could push those other shows to spring...

 

I think you have it backwards, the delay in filming during the lockdown meant a lot of shows got ahead of post-production rather than falling behind. Wheel of Time is a good example of this. 

 

As for the dates, there's no reason for them getting pushed back. Witcher announced their August premier in December and they wouldn't if they weren't certain about it. Similarly, Lord of The Rings is filming in New Zealand and have been rather lucky in terms of Covid. 

[SinisterDeath]

19 minutes ago, Elder_Haman said:

I just have a hard time believing that COVID pushed post-production work back that dramatically. All of that work is digital and can be collaborated on digitally.

Cyberpunk 2077 and Baldurs Gate 3, were both games, which much like post-production CGI/Editting/etc can entirely be collaborated digitally, were pushed back 9 months citing covid disrupting workflow.

 

Quote

The main problem with COVID involves the actual filming because you obviously have to have a bunch of people in the same place to do that. But most businesses that can adapt have adapted.

 

I'm with @Carebear Sedaia fall release just makes absolutely no sense. In fact, I'd be far less surprised if it released in February than I would if it released in October.

Filming has been pushed back for almost Everyone.
We may not know the ramifications of just how far back things are going to be pushed for another 6-9 months as everyone and their mother rushes to get their films through post.

My prediction is that Studios that do everything in-house are going to have less problems releasing on time. While those who have to outsource for CGI are going to be the most delayed.
 

16 minutes ago, Carebear Sedai said:

 

I think you have it backwards, the delay in filming during the lockdown meant a lot of shows got ahead of post-production rather than falling behind. Wheel of Time is a good example of this. 

 

Depends on which part of post production we're talking about.
You can't edit footage until you've got the footage. 
You can only get "so" far ahead on CGI, because you need to work it with the footage. (Unless you do what they did with Mandalorian)
You can only get so far ahead on "dubbing" using the scripts, until you run into adlibs.
Certain sounds/music you can plan in advance simply may not work with the footage.

Rafe has mentioned the combination of practical and CGI. The first season may very well be pretty light on CGI. WoT may even have far less "post production" then Witcher or LoTR, and thusly have less post production slog.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by SinisterDeath

[Carebear Sedai]

2 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Depends on which part of post production we're talking about.
You can't edit footage until you've got the footage. 
You can only get "so" far ahead on CGI, because you need to work it with the footage. (Unless you do what they did with Mandalorian)
You can only get so far ahead on "dubbing" using the scripts, until you run into adlibs.
Certain sounds/music you can plan in advance simply may not work with the footage.

 

Certainly, but I'm not seeing any proof of this in terms of TV shows and movies. If there was a huge issue with backlog, shows like the Expanse or Witcher would've required extra post-production time, however that has not been the case. The Expanse finished filming just before the production halt in March, however, their release date was pretty much as expected in December. Similarly, Witcher is still filming its season two, however, the show execs are confident enough about the length of post to commit to a date merely 8 months away. 

 

If there was a huge issue in terms of post production backlog regarding TV shows and movies, we'd see evidence of it by now. 

[Elder_Haman]

2 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Cyberpunk 2077 and Baldurs Gate 3, were both games, which much like post-production CGI/Editting/etc can entirely be collaborated digitally, were pushed back 9 months citing covid disrupting workflow.

Fair point. But I'm not sure that's an apples-to-apples comparison. I'd just point back to the fact that the teaser releases, social media engagement, and increased buzz cut against this.

 

WandaVision was in a similar place to WoT (both began filming in late 2019), is also an effects-heavy show, and will premier in ten days. (It also has one more episode than WoT). Falcon and the Winter Soldier is still expected to release in 2021 and there were non-COVID production delays in that show. The Witcher didn't start filming until early 2020 and is still expected out this year.

[Carebear Sedai]

10 minutes ago, Elder_Haman said:

WandaVision was in a similar place to WoT (both began filming in late 2019), is also an effects-heavy show, and will premier in ten days. (It also has one more episode than WoT). Falcon and the Winter Soldier is still expected to release in 2021 and there were non-COVID production delays in that show. The Witcher didn't start filming until early 2020 and is still expected out this year.

 

It probably helps that filming is spread out, and Covid restrictions don't effect everyone in the same way and during the same time period. Perhaps this is what differentiates movies/TV shows from the video gaming industry.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Carebear Sedai

[SinisterDeath]

3 hours ago, Carebear Sedai said:

 

Certainly, but I'm not seeing any proof of this in terms of TV shows and movies. If there was a huge issue with backlog, shows like the Expanse or Witcher would've required extra post-production time, however that has not been the case. The Expanse finished filming just before the production halt in March, however, their release date was pretty much as expected in December. Similarly, Witcher is still filming its season two, however, the show execs are confident enough about the length of post to commit to a date merely 8 months away. 

 

If there was a huge issue in terms of post production backlog regarding TV shows and movies, we'd see evidence of it by now. 

I'm expecting a TV "drought" within the next 6 months, as all the stuff shot prior to Covid finishes airing, and new stuff gets delayed. 

 

We also have to remember that certain movies/tv shows are going to have higher priority depending on the studios and execs involved.

 

E.g. Wanda vision (Disney/Marvel) is going to probably win out over Witcher.

 

I'm not even touching upon the issue of production companies not paying, purposely bankrupting companies that do CGI.

[Harldin]

Na, no way it will be Autumn/Winter, too early, more likely Spring/Summer, gives them about 9-10 Months. 

[Elder_Haman]

I’m just baffled about why y’all think it is going to take so long. Most of the first six episodes were complete before COVID hit. 

[Harldin]

6 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

I’m just baffled about why y’all think it is going to take so long. Most of the first six episodes were complete before COVID hit. 

Any release date will have to work in with the LOTR TV Series, i would suspect that Amazon Prime will be very strategic in their thinking about release dates on these 2 and S1 of both appear to be finished roughly the same time. We may even see a joint Trailer for both. 
LOTR will get what Amazon Prime believes to be the better release date due to the fact it is far better known to the general public at large, all you have to say is “Lord of the Rings” and everybody and his dog will know immediately what your talking about. Say “Wheel of Time” and non Fantasy Fans will say UH!!! whats that. Hopefully after 8 episodes that all changes. I think that originally WOT was going to be released either late 2020 or early 2021 and LOTR late 2021 but Covid put paid to those plans and both have ended up finished at the same time.

Personally i don’t want to get my hopes up too high for early 2021 and a April release would be an awesome 60th B/day present. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Harldin
Spelling

[Harldin]

14 hours ago, Harldin said:

Any release date will have to work in with the LOTR TV Series, i would suspect that Amazon Prime will be very strategic in their thinking about release dates on these 2 and S1 of both appear to be finished roughly the same time. We may even see a joint Trailer for both. 
LOTR will get what Amazon Prime believes to be the better release date due to the fact it is far better known to the general public at large, all you have to say is “Lord of the Rings” and everybody and his dog will know immediately what your talking about. Say “Wheel of Time” and non Fantasy Fans will say UH!!! whats that. Hopefully after 8 episodes that all changes. I think that originally WOT was going to be released either late 2020 or early 2021 and LOTR late 2021 but Covid put paid to those plans and both have ended up finished at the same time.

Personally i don’t want to get my hopes up too high for early 2021 and a April release would be an awesome 60th B/day present. 

Just remembered, its not only LOTR and WOT on Amazon this year but yet another big Budget reasonably similar Fantasy Series, Carnival Row S2 is also due. So its not going to come down to if its all finished up ready to go, its all about Amazon Prime selling its product and if they think a Nov-Dec 21 or even a early 22 release will work best for WOT then that is what will happen. 
 

[Thrasymachus]

I also don't buy that WoT and LotR are competitors.  Viewership begets viewers.  People aren't going to not watch WoT because there's also LotR episodes being released.  They'll watch both, as long as both are good.  And even easier because viewers won't have to switch apps to do it.  It's not like people didn't watch The Boys because Carnival Row was released a month ahead of it.

[Elder_Haman]

1 hour ago, Thrasymachus said:

I also don't buy that WoT and LotR are competitors.  Viewership begets viewers.  People aren't going to not watch WoT because there's also LotR episodes being released.  They'll watch both, as long as both are good.  And even easier because viewers won't have to switch apps to do it.  It's not like people didn't watch The Boys because Carnival Row was released a month ahead of it.

Agreed. People who are inclined to like fantasy will tune into all of the shows. 

[Harldin]

2 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

Agreed. People who are inclined to like fantasy will tune into all of the shows. 

Do you seriously believe that is all it will take to make WOT successful?, LOTR and GOT are hugely successful because they have drawn huge numbers of people who are not normally inclined to like or dislike Fantasy. At $100m+ a season WOT has to draw those type of Viewers in.

Another thing we need to remember to is Amazon Prime is a Streaming Service and it makes its money back by selling new subscriptions and that will be another factor in its strategic thinking. They may decide to run both at the same time or they may decide to run one straight after the other finishes or they may have a break.

[Carebear Sedai]

5 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I also don't buy that WoT and LotR are competitors.  Viewership begets viewers.  People aren't going to not watch WoT because there's also LotR episodes being released.  They'll watch both, as long as both are good.  And even easier because viewers won't have to switch apps to do it.  It's not like people didn't watch The Boys because Carnival Row was released a month ahead of it.

 

It's a matter of marketing. They won't want the campaign for WoT to interfere with the one for LotR. It's also a matter of spreading their big shows out throughout the year instead of dumping them all out in one season and be left with nothing to show for 3/4 of the year. 

 

I'm sure many  WoT fans will watch LoTR and vice versa, but I'd be shocked if there isn't at least 6 months gap between the release of one and the other. 

[Thrasymachus]

Amazon's got lot's of shows to release throughout the year.  And they're going to want to be sparing with their Summer releases this year anyway.  Lockdowns are expected to be coming up, social distancing and mask orders lifted.  People aren't gonna be inside watching TV nearly as much, barring lots of extraordinary weather.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them push Carnival Row back a month or so, lead off with that release, followed by WoT and LotR every month and a half or so later, however long it takes to drop the first three episodes at once and weekly drops after that, and dub the whole block, "Prime Fantasy Fall."

 

And there's no sense in the idea that the marketing campaign for the one show would "interfere" with the marketing campaign for the other.  Marketing releases for things in the same market space are synergistic.  Hype magnifies hype.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Thrasymachus
Had to change my shoes.

[Harldin]

50 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Amazon's got lot's of shoes to release throughout the year.  And they're going to want to be sparing with their Summer releases this year anyway.  Lockdowns are expected to be coming up, social distancing and mask orders lifted.  People aren't gonna be inside watching TV nearly as much, barring lots of extraordinary weather.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them push Carnival Row back a month or so, lead off with that release, followed by WoT and LotR every month and a half or so later, however long it takes to drop the first three episodes at once and weekly drops after that, and dub the whole block, "Prime Fantasy Fall."

 

And there's no sense in the idea that the marketing campaign for the one show would "interfere" with the marketing campaign for the other.  Marketing releases for things in the same market space are synergistic.  Hype magnifies hype.

We could even see a combined trailer for all 3 first, certainly a sales pitch around selling the Epicness of the 3 series could be the way to go. Something along the lines of.

“Amazon Prime goes truly epic in 2021, return to the Row for an even bigger 2nd season of Carnival Row and go back to Middle Earth for never before seen adventures in “add title they are using here*” and for the first time ever Robert Jordans massive work comes to life in Wheel of Time”. Of course accompanied by some footage. 

*We don’t actually have the title for the TV series yet, doubt it will be called simply Lord of the Rings. Maybe LOTR 2nd Age or Middle Earth 2nd Age.