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Ghostbusters Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins!

Ithillian Turambar

By Ithillian Turambar
in The Black Tower

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Ithillian Turambar Spam Master

Ithillian Turambar

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Official Vote Count

 

Nikon (1): Sooh

Turin (1): Alanna

Dice (3): Tsuki, Eldrick, Niniel

Niniel (1): Dice

Alanna (1): Turin

 

Not Voting (1): Nikon

 

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to Lynch

 

 

Day 4 Deadline is 9pm BST Wednesday 27 April - you can achieve a majority Lynch at any point before then.

 

End of Day 4

 

4 1/2 ish hours till deadline. No change

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alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

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Reminder from yesterday/the other day that I wanted to answer 2995 but for now I'm starting from 3076

 

 

Alanna,

 

  Dice. I don't see how you have been so certain that Dice (someone you say you have misread too often) is town based on the thread. I believe that you probably read Zander better than me and I actually did consider he could be town but I just could see how he would do the things he did and be town. You don't have that kind of connection to Dice though so I have to question how you got there. What you are citing doesn't cut it for me.

 

   The COP.  Would it be better to just LOCK CLEAR Eldrick for the game because he was peeked when I think there is thematic reason to doubt that the cop isn't real? There were odd interactions between him and Shad (known mafia). Probably more than for anyone else. So if the play is sketchy and the "peek" is questionable (it is to me) then I'm doing my job to keep questioning him.

 

  Shad. He wasn't really under much pressure except from me tho. That's my opinion anyway. Yes, bussing does exist but it isn't my first method of mafia. I was suspicious of Shad from D1. So w/e. 

 

 

  Baiting. Not buying that. That is something that you might do early but if you think someone is mafia this late then you pretty much gotta believe in yourself.

 

 Rey v. Shad: 1. fits better overall IMO. It is the combination of the two things that make it ping so much. You had Shad as nullish despite his 250 posts. Rey went from Townie to mafia overnight.

 

 ???. I did play in GnD. I was lynched before that happened but I was aware of the joke. Which was why I put it as null basically. 

 

  Reads: The Z as symp thing was something that I just thought about while reading it. 

 

  More Shad:  I don't believe you. As to waffling, you basically did that without putting in the words. 

 

  Ghost claim. But since it is pretty much consensus (IMO) now that the mafia ARE the Ghostbusters and the mafia would KNOW that from the start it is reasonable that they might think it a good idea to claim a ghost as a character. (Logically if the busters are the Bad guys then the ghosts might just be the good guys).  I'm not the MOD but I think I have some insight into her mind. You say that you read Z well. I say that I read Ithi well. She still surprises me sometimes. I didn't expect the Ghostbusters to be the Bad guys mostly because that was how Indy worked. I expect that she gave out fakes of ghosts and people. Since many of the actual characters to date have been what could be considered minor then any character is possible. I know this because in Sith I had a character that I had to look up. Explaining in detail will derail the thread but just let me say that I am fairly confident that I can to some extent game the mod. 

 

Shad had over 250 posts. How do you not have a read on him after that? 

 

More fake outrage re Tsuki. Even he said that he has some doubt that his peek is accurate. Lemme ask you this. Say we lynch Eldrick and he flips mafia. Who do we go after next???

 

1. Re: Dice: I don't understand why you're questioning one of my reads so hard. It's an opinion, I've stated how I got there. I've shown that I'm not budging, I don't like the case against him, I feel like scum is pushing his lynch because it's easy at this point. That's just how it is, and at the end of the day if he's lynched, then we'll get to see who's right, nature of the game.

2. Re: Cop/Eldrick: I will give you that we should always question things. But being that Tsuki is probably dying tonight, Eldrick will be cleared up right nice tomorrow, barring GF. I think Eldrick is town in his own right though.  

3. Not arguing the Shad thing anymore, he's dead scum, I don't really care about him until I get around to reading his ISO. He's a hard read in the game and I've come to expect certain things from him as town and I expect to be able to reach a strong read on him and just couldn't this game. Meh What's did is done. If you want to know how I react to scum!Shad, take a look at Pulp Fiction. Shad was scum there and I was AWFUL at reading him iirc. In every other game that I've played with Shad (besides his first- too good for a newbie), I've been able to strong town read the guy as a fellow villager.

4. Ghost claims: Okay let's say that the mafia team are all ghostbusters. Is it necessarily true that all fake claims are ghosts? Because that's what I think you're saying but I'm not sure. I'm just stating that we can never assume.

 

5. Re: if Eldrick flips mafia: I don't think that is likely to happen, actually. I've been looking over some of his stuff and he just feels townie. IF he were to flip mafia though, I'd probably go into the POE of Nikon/Niniel because like hell if I'm reading Eldrick's ISO. That's like 700 posts of ????????

 

Dice and laine. Let's say you're right. We lynch Turin and he flips scum. Who is his teammate with shad and why?

*same as above, I want to look into Niniel/Nikon more, but I still have to do a Shad ISO; would probably commit to a Turin ISO at that point too

 

 

Wow! That re-read took me almost two hours but now I have good notes. :)

 

Questions and comments:

 

About ghosts or humans - I won´t focus on what character people are. As Laine said, I doubt Ithi would do a game that could be broken by character claims. 

But... I now understand why Turin is thinking Tsuki is naive. I will think about that but Eld´s play is making me think he is town anyway right now.

 

Did Laine ever claim a role? I haven´t found it anyway.

 

My impression of Dice is not good. I defended him for his D1 stuff but he isn´t really trying to find mafia. Turin is "slimy", that is all he have to say. His vote on me was also very easy - he doesn´t like my claim and I´m not like townNiniel. That´s it. I will come back to him when I have re-read Nikon. 

 

I need to think about all reveals. Is there any reasons that Sooh can´t have simply blocked Tsuki tonight? If there aren´t any then she could claim jailkeeper to explain why Tsuki didn´t get a view at the same time that she was protecing a team mate (Laine). Let me know if I´m thinking right or wrong here. 

 

 

Laine - you copied a text about traitors from mafiascum but that isn´t the same as symp, right?

Traitor is a symp. Symp stands for Sympathizer, they sympathize with the mafia. Hence, town traitor. It's not listed like that on mafiascum, but it's the same thing.

 

The remaining wolves are in laine, Dice, Sooh, and nikon.

Eldrick, you don't think Niniel can be scum? Or rather, you think Sooh is more likely to be scum than Niniel? Sooh has proven her role (basically), Niniel hasn't/cant.

 

 

My impression is that Shad had Lenlo as mafia-kind-of-thing all time but never did anything about it. Now, I don´t know if I should actually base any reads on Shad´s posts at all.

 

I looked at my old iso of Lenlo. My main thing about him was how he went after Dice. That was when I had a town read on Dice. I don´t anymore. So I don´t think it´s Sooh and Dice together. 

 

About Sooh: I´m mostly suspicious of that claim. 

 

When it comes to Dice I defended his early game and I think I was right then. But I have to agree with Turin. After that he hasn´t done much. Today´s posts are not good. His reasons for voting me and Turin are few and short. Turin has asked him over and over to show what posts looks slimy but he won´t. I feel with all these posts (we are at page 156) there must be more than a gut feeling to point at. 

 

[v] Dice [/v]

 

I could also vote Sooh or Nikon. More unsure about those though.

 

Niniel what makes you suspicious of Sooh's claim? She said she jailed me, then Tsuki said he got no result on me. Feels open and closed that her power works to me... I mean, she COULD be a mafia jailkeeper of course, but I'm wondering what your thought process is on her. I agree on your push on Lenlo though, but conflicted since the claim is more likely to be town, imo.

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Eldrick4221 Master

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When I posted that list, laine, I hadn't looked into if there were breadcrumbs to verify sooh's claim. I wasn't thrilled with her gameplay, so she was in my poe.

 

She isn't any more.

 

Nini is cleared to me by content alone. I feel she has been very towny this game, and I think the way she claimed when she didn't need to feels genuine.

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Sooh Spam Master

Sooh

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I'm just trying to think who seems more legit here. 

 

I trust Tsuki and Eldrick, and I'm probably never taking them out of my town. Niniel's process on my claim seems legit as well, but I'm less certain about her slot overall. Dice seems to be trying out different angles and seems to be his town self, but even less sure there. Turin could possibly be town neighbor, but there will always be tinfoil in that a neighbor could be scum and we know for sure Zander wasn't. Laine certainly wasn't the killing party in the mafia last night, so if she's scum there's at least one more, however I'm inclined to think that there are two more anyway. Nikon is tricky to read because he's in perpetual catch up mode.

 

I think I'm WTL Turin, Laine and Nikon, and possibly Dice today. I don't know if there's a pairing among them which is more likely as a team.

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Turin Turambar Spam Master

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Alanna.

 

1.)  Yes. We will see.

2.)  Again most likely this will be the case. Although the is a chance that Tsuki won't die. I can see it happening though.

3.)  Not looking at other games period. RE Shad: it is what it is. You chose wrong and dragged your feet.

4.)  No. That is NOT what I said. I said that the mafia  likely being all Ghostbusters might think it wise to use ghost fake claims. I would expect that there are both human and ghost fake claims provided. 

5.) okay. You have made your statement. 

 

Can you respond about the "inexperienced mafia team" thing?

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alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

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3133 A+ post from Sooh. Basically it all comes down to the KISS rule. Sooh claimed to jail me before Tsuki claimed to have gotten a no result on me. Therefore Sooh is probably telling the truth about jailing me and is subsequently town. Would also be strange for mafia to have two different blocking roles (jk and rb).

BTW, this is basically where I'm at:
Alanna
Tsuki
Lenlo/Sooh
Eldrick
Dice

BFG/Nikon
Niniel
Turin

 

Dice, your just throwing any old thing out to try to get something to stick On me. I'm a neighbor. I claimed my role and character on day 1. The other neighbor verified it. In the film are they not neighbors? Does it make sense? Neighbors can be either alignment. That is how they are nerfed in comparison to masons. Look at the roles and you will see that many of them are nerfed in one way or another. Really the only one that isn't is doc. And cop if Tsuki isn't naive.
jailkeeper can protect but also block.
governor can switch lynch from mafia to town.
stump?? Only can be confirmed by Death.
bomb? Who would believe it?

The balance is basically that a naive cop is a negative utility role. At best it gives no information. At worst it risks false clearing mafia. Look at your list and take cop out. In a 13 player game against a mafia of 3+1 symp how does it look.

Niniel said that her role only works against NKs and only takes the killer. You are saying that it works different but that assumes she is a bomb. Juat because something is usually something doesn't mean it will be this game. Remember who is the MOD.

I'm not sure what you're getting Turin. It sounds like you're saying that all roles are non-standard to support your cop theory. But we have no proof besides speculation that Tsuki is naive; standard jailkeeper DOES protect and block;  governer is non-standard but we're also hybrid-hammer, so if he stopped the "lynch" the next highest votes gets lynched, so it's really the same thing; bomb is standard (non standard for DM because they normally are varied to include lynches from my exp).

 

I think the cop role is one which probably would exist (it has been in all of my games) so may just be a bad read on tsuki and willing to put them aside for now unless multiple people also see something off about their posts.  Kind of wondering if Jailkeeper + Doc would BOTH be valid roles since both are protectors and that seems a little strong unless mafia team has some other counter roles.

 

So I'd say probably Sooh and either Dice or Niniel are my best bets up to this point unless I'm completely reading people wrong or if there are some big changes in my reads in the next 60 pages.

Nikon makes a good point about the doc/jailkeeper both existing as protective roles. I would make the assumption that scum is pretty powerful.

#3171 good post

 

Alanna, After the actions of N1 with the blocked Tsuki kill you stated that it was likely due to a "inexperienced mafia team". I didn't think that much about it but I just saw the quote while looking at Sooh's posts. Upon knowing that shad was mafia, I think that debunks that idea. But I went a little farther as I was going to make my list for the day I looked at the player list. There really aren't any inexperienced players in the game so I am now really thinking that comment meant have been pure smokescreen. Try to remember who you were thinking could have been the inexperienced team?

 

It looks now like it was just a matter of fancy play and/or go big or go home.

I'm trying to remember what I said that in response to. Probably the assumption that they tried to kill the cop instead of doc hunt, which is a stupid move IMO. We had an outted cop and the doc was still hidden, AND they had a RB, why did they try to shoot (and miss) the cop. Unless they actually tried to shoot Hally (if self protecting) and missed but idk what her actions were. The comment was just a thought I had combined with the known absense of at least 3-4 players who were disappearing acts early game (Shad, BFG, Hally, Lenlo). Also, Shad isn't really that experienced, he's played in 10-15 games total, but he's smart. Hell, I make terrible decisions as mafia so I would consider myself inexperienced as mafia. I also know next to nothing about Tsuki or Rey or how often they play, what their meta is, how good they are as scum, none of that. So it was really just a comment that the mafia wasn't well put together.

 

Do you really intend to stick to a line that I am mafia?

Yes.

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alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

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Day 3 Final Vote Count

 

Shad (6): Turin, Eldrick, Niniel, Sooh, Nikon, Alanna

 

 

 

Not voting (4): Tsuki, Dice, Shad, Hallia

 

There will now follow a short Twilight of no more than one hour.

Is there a reason we still had a Twilight phase even though our governor was dead?

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Turin Turambar Spam Master

Turin Turambar

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Shad lists this as his 17th game. I would consider anyone with <=10 games is inexperienced.

 

Maybe that is just me. I felt experienced after 5 games but we played a lot more advanced big games back then so lots of possibilities in each game and you had to think about how actions affected other actions.

 

 

Anyway Fair enough.

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alannalynn Spam Master

alannalynn

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Keep in mind also that amount of games =/= amount of times as mafia. That's roughly 25% or less of total games. So if someone has played 20 games, they've been mafia like 5 times. (My own mafia rand rate from my last calculation a few games ago is 16/65, roughly 25%, so that's right)

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Turin Turambar Spam Master

Turin Turambar

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Day 3 Final Vote Count

 

Shad (6): Turin, Eldrick, Niniel, Sooh, Nikon, Alanna

 

 

 

Not voting (4): Tsuki, Dice, Shad, Hallia

 

There will now follow a short Twilight of no more than one hour.

I'm gonna ask this one last time, Do you really think that I push Shad's lynch all the way through when I had no reason to if I was his partner? 

 

Or is it more likely that mafia decided to either stay off like dice or slink in on the back end when they couldn't do anything to change it?

 

Also look at Shad and his early posts to me. Tell me if you think they are W/W? 

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