[Basic]: Friends Mafia

[Eldrick4221]

I am caught up, just trying to put together my own thoughts about you and Shad.

Sounds good.

 

Also curious about what you think about Hally's claim, and your opinions on the link she made between herself and Lily.

[Eldrick4221]

Would also like to see a reads list from you :)

[Taborline]

You are very demanding this morning, my dear

[Eldrick4221]

You are very demanding this morning, my dear

:D

 

I've been talking to myself all morning. Someone is finally here.

 

Turin was for a little bit, but not long enough to actually converse.

[Eldrick4221]

Also my shift is almost over, and sleep shortly after that, so my time is limited :P

[Taborline]

Fair enough, I'm almost there!

[Eldrick4221]

@Shad I wanted to address my discrepancy with the spoiler in Thane's post. I couldn't remember if I had originally read it or not, which is why at one point I thought maybe I didn't, and another I said I read it wrong. I can't figure out why I had an issue in the first place, cuz when I reread it, I didn't see whatever I saw the first time. I'm sorry that it's confusing. It confuses me too.

[Taborline]

Shad's performance from yesterday seems sound to me on an ISO this morning. You were spot on about Zander, you make good points about other people that I agree with (re: this post), and your vote was fine. I don't love the tunnelling after Eldrick today. I know you sowed the seeds of this yesterday, and I think I have seen you be uber-convinced before and go about it in the same way, but it doesn't give me a 100% town vibe. If Eld does end up flipping scum, I would still have my eye on you as a possible team mate for this kind of thing (in a conspiracy theory sort of world, as you know I'm fond of). More realistically, I think I could see Shad/Hallia, if Hally's lying about the claim.

 

I'm not convinced about Eld being scum yet, but a lot of this might be meta. The one time I played with you as scum before, you were all over the place in your voting patterns in a way that felt odd, like deliberate confusion. I am not feeling that from you in this game. Your votes so far have at least been things I agreed about and not things that made me wonder where the heck you were coming from. I don't feel bad about you hammering yesterday, as I would have as well, I was convinced Thane was scum (sorry, Thane!) I am also still rather on board with your AtE. 

 

I am not sure about Hally's claim. If she is scum, then it's taking a relatively big chance making that kind of claim so early without taking the time to suss whether or not it looks like there is a legit cop out there. However, the lack of counter claim does potentially look good for her. Given that it's such a small game, and basic, I wonder if there is a cop at all. If Hally is scum and false claiming, I think it looks good for Lily because as soon as Lily flipped anything but town, we'd have Hally too.

 

My strongest town read today is Sooh, followed by Turin.

[Hallia]

I tried to refrain from playing super aggressively, because that tends to be my towntell. As cop, of course I peeked Lily, it made the most sense.

 

Shad's position on the Lily train makes me suspicious.

[Taborline]

I tried to refrain from playing super aggressively, because that tends to be my towntell. As cop, of course I peeked Lily, it made the most sense.

 

Shad's position on the Lily train makes me suspicious.

 

I know, but I have to talk these things out to myself in my posts in order to make any sense of it.

[Eldrick4221]

Shad/Hally team, huh?

 

So you envision a possibility that Hally would fake claim and town view her top scum read, who would otherwise probably be an easy mislynch?

 

I'm under the impression that if Hally is scum, Lily is her teammate, cuz why throw that away?

 

I agree that Lily flipping non-scum would out Hally. Question is how badly is that worth pursuing? Lily could still be legitimately town, and Hally really did peek her.

[Eldrick4221]

I tried to refrain from playing super aggressively, because that tends to be my towntell. As cop, of course I peeked Lily, it made the most sense.

 

Shad's position on the Lily train makes me suspicious.

 

This makes sense. If you're cop, and know what your towntell is, you don't want it to show.

 

Why did you reveal when you did?

 

Also, what about Lily's gameplay made you suspicious of her?

[Taborline]

Shad/Hally team, huh?

 

So you envision a possibility that Hally would fake claim and town view her top scum read, who would otherwise probably be an easy mislynch?

 

I'm under the impression that if Hally is scum, Lily is her teammate, cuz why throw that away?

 

I agree that Lily flipping non-scum would out Hally. Question is how badly is that worth pursuing? Lily could still be legitimately town, and Hally really did peek her.

 

Crud, that's true.

[Eldrick4221]

Shad/Hally team, huh?

 

So you envision a possibility that Hally would fake claim and town view her top scum read, who would otherwise probably be an easy mislynch?

 

I'm under the impression that if Hally is scum, Lily is her teammate, cuz why throw that away?

 

I agree that Lily flipping non-scum would out Hally. Question is how badly is that worth pursuing? Lily could still be legitimately town, and Hally really did peek her.

I so said that wrong. Lily flipping scum would. And only if Lily isn't GF.

[Hallia]

I revealed when I did because it would be terribly easy to have lynched her today. I was also getting heat. And day ended before I got sucked into work thankfully, because I wasn't able to be here much

[Eldrick4221]

Please answer the other question. You keep ignoring it. What about her gameplay made you suspect her in the first place?

[Niniel]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT

Eldrick (1) - Shad


Not voting: Lily, Hallia, Sooh, Turin, Tab, Eld

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is Saturday 9 PM CET.

Countdown

 

 

[LilyElizabeth]

 

1. Thane, Mr.Heckles, vanilla town was lynched D1

2. Shad - For the longest time I had him as town. Then it started to bug me that he was scumreading me without pushing for my lynch, which is a scum tactic. Cast suspicion on someone and hope others notice. But during our exchange today, it hasn't felt like he's trying for a mislynch. So I'm back to thinking he's town.

3. Sooh - Sooh is a big ??? to me. I thought I had something with her leaving her joke vote. I have been convinced that I was wrong. That it is just something she does. Apparently it's something a lot of people do. I have never noticed. After I stopped suspecting her for the vote, I actually don't remember anything else she has done. I need to ISO her, but she's in null for simply slipping my mind.

4. Hallia - Claimed cop. I have issues with her. I don't like that she's ignoring questions about why she voted her. I don't like that part of her "reason" doesn't match the events. I still think she's probably scum. But I'm not going to lynch an uncc'd cop. If Lily ever flips mafia (non GF), she is so going down.

5. Zander, Ugly Naked Guy, vanilla town was nk´d N1

6. Eldrick - Town LDO

7. Lily - Hally claims town view of her. I'm still annoyed over her comment D1. It still feels like overexplaining and a scum tell. I can't fathom how town would say what she said. That comment aside, though, she has been very towny. I am convinced I was initially wrong about her.

8. Taborline - Not much content, but it's good game solving content. Explaining how she feels about the events of the game. Asking people why they did what they did. Probably town.

9. Turin - I haven't ISO'd him in a while, but I remember liking what I saw when I did. Lily and Zander were scumreading him, and I wanted to see what they saw. I couldn't figure it out. His play has been solidly town. Sure, he focused on Thane a bit. Sure. He was wrong. But I'm not seeing him being scum.

 

I have a problem. I am misclearing at least one person.

 

 

Looks like we're in the same boat. I can't see anyone as mafia, either. 

[LilyElizabeth]

Like Eldrick, I want an answer to that question, Hally. What about my gameplay made you suspicious of me on day one?

 

Turin, I thought we were comparing reads lists, but you didn't post one. 

 

I'm losing interest in this game because people don't answer direct questions. Well, these two anyway. How can I scum hunt if my questions don't get answered? I won't be around as much today, because I'm less interested. 

[Sooh]

I apologize for not being present so much yesterday and today so far. We've had quite the day at work. Ski-day, with all the fun that entails. Getting in buses with hundreds of teenagers, going up into the woods with them, sending them out skiing, going for a hike ourselves and then back to inhale bonfire smoke for the better part of three hours. I'm kind of done with today, but I have at least read up to now and I'm still mulling over Eldrick and Shad here. If there are questions for me I'll try to get to them, otherwise I think my main scumhunting effort has to come tomorrow.

 

Oh... FYI, I HATE SKI DAYS!

[Hallia]

Please answer the other question. You keep ignoring it. What about her gameplay made you suspect her in the first place?

Actually, I didn't. When I started my re-read I included a bit of the gameplay I found suspicious. I ran out of time, so I didn't continue.

[Sooh]

 

Please answer the other question. You keep ignoring it. What about her gameplay made you suspect her in the first place?

Actually, I didn't. When I started my re-read I included a bit of the gameplay I found suspicious. I ran out of time, so I didn't continue.

 

Perhaps, since both Eldrick and Lily keeps referencing this, you could quote it for us?

[Hallia]

Maybe on lunch I can, going back via mobile at work is hard.

[Turin Turambar]

Lily, I gave my current position on everyone along with some thoughts about my lynch candidates.

 

I will be about a bit here. Not likely at DL tomorrow cause getting.married.

 

What do people think of hallia/lily minus the claim?

[Shad_]

If Hallia w Lily v: claiming prevents possible Lily mislynch, outs Hallia if there is a real cop or when Hallia never gets NK'd.  Completely pointless gamble.

 

if Hallia v Lily w: means Lily is GF.  Possible I guess.  I don't know how likely a GF is here and I suck at predicting set-ups.

 

If Hallia w Lily w:

if one of them is GF: they know there's a real cop.  Why sacrifice one of your players to draw out the cop when you have a much higher success rate by letting the cop live and hoping he peeks your GF?  It's a dim possibility, if Lily is GF, in order to prevent her lynch today, but then scum fake claims when her lynch is probable, not at the start of the phase.  So I don't think this scenario makes sense.

if they are both goons: could be a gamble in the hopes that there is no actual cop.  Maybe? a risk worth taking with both of them low in the POE.  But a Lily goon flip confirms Hallia scum, so even if we believe the claim but lynch Lily for fear of a GF, they lose.  Or there could be a real cop, in which case Hallia is outed and Lily still potentially peeked or lynched for POE.  Not a crazy gamble but still unlikely.

 

So with all that in mind, not lynching Hallia today without a convincing counterclaim.  Lily still a possibility, but the simple fact of the uncountered claim makes it less probable.