Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[Andrej]

My break is over so that's all from me now.

 

I'll respond later.

 

In short Verb it's a glaring lack of development/progression that I can tangibly see that troubles me. It looks worse when you voted a villager over a wolf.

[Verbal32]

My break is over so that's all from me now.

 

I'll respond later.

 

In short Verb it's a glaring lack of development/progression that I can tangibly see that troubles me. It looks worse when you voted a villager over a wolf.

 

Red = that's the deal when I'm not around much.  This game was much more active than I was hoping, and I fell behind being on vacation.  Not much I can do for that - if I'm lynched for it, so be it.

 

Blue = News flash: lots of people do this.  A few others did on that very same lynch.  Rand was 100% a lynch candidate, so your logic fails here.  You're saying as a wolf I voted the villager instead of my partner.  They were both going to die - it was a matter of time.  Why not bus and buy the cred for making a switch that I'd called out in thread prior to that?

 

Don't you think "sticking to my guns" was the strategy that drew more attention to me?  Why does scum!Verbal do that, when the easy town cred is staring me in the face if I swapped to Laine?

 

 

This is my problem with you right now - you're not thinking things through.  I should not have to be pointing this out to you (or anybody), and it's troubling.

[Talya]

Can I just say you two are doing my head in

 

@ BFG - I haven't been able to do much here, nor the other game...exam Thursday and brain is frazzled and very stressed right now. As far a Zander is concerned, he never really replies to posts properly, just makes silly comments, i think it's because he doesn't have any real substance to add at all, so throwing the comments that he does, is all he can do.

 

I don't know what to think of Verb and AJ right now. In fact don't think my brain can process it. I think there maybe a lot of solve with Verb right now, im trying to see if he could be town. Not sure I can.

[dicetosser1]

I don't think my late vote on Laine looks bad when you take into account that I actively encouraged players to move over so that I could hammer. Which I did prior to Laine attempting to at least stall her lynch with the DL looming an hour away. Anybody remember her reaction to that?

 

I'm guessing wolves thought they could go for NL in that situation. Verb voting Rand over Laine to "complete the consistency" despite having a wolf read on Laine would make sense here on this theory.

 

Anyway - I'll be on break in about an hour and can respond more accordingly.

 

Dont like this post. I aalready raised the blue bit but here hes using it in a way that feels liek he is trying to take credit for finding it.

 

 

Besides - you keep pointing at me like I control your vote or something. THAT'S what is laughable here. "AJ said to stay put so even though there were pages of development elsewhere I voted to complete the consistency although by my own logic I should've seen Laine as another wolf read sitting at L-1"

 

Bogus dude. Come on

 

I was wavering, and I had already listed you as a top town read.  When you're not sure, sheeping them is a solid strat.  Don't even pretend that's not true.  So if say....Dice had said to stay the course, I would not put the same value as you or Shad (at the time).

 

I didn't want to second guess myself, so I agreed with the advice and stuck on Rand.  Obviously a mistake, but I needed to make a choice.

 

 

Now thats just hurtful verb! 

[dicetosser1]

long story short i dont think im voting verb at this time. BUT i want you to dig in verb, We got 24 hrs or so

 

I AM looking at AJ  verbs points are valid but they are also stated at various points in the game

[BFG]

Can I just say you two are doing my head in

 

@ BFG - I haven't been able to do much here, nor the other game...exam Thursday and brain is frazzled and very stressed right now. As far a Zander is concerned, he never really replies to posts properly, just makes silly comments, i think it's because he doesn't have any real substance to add at all, so throwing the comments that he does, is all he can do.

 

I don't know what to think of Verb and AJ right now. In fact don't think my brain can process it. I think there maybe a lot of solve with Verb right now, im trying to see if he could be town. Not sure I can.

Hope your revision's going well!

 

Lol, I've changed my mind half a dozen times in the past 4 hours. I'll try to figure out something coherent enough to share in the next couple of hours.

[BFG]

I'm going to revisit the AJ/Verb backhand forth in a bit.

[BFG]

@Verb, Dice is right, you have time to dig in before deadline

[BFG]

I'm going to revisit the AJ/Verb backhand forth in a bit.

*back and forth

[BFG]

@thread. Worth remembering that if Laine died with a bullet that mafia have every reason not to bus. But we don't know if she did or not.

 

The NK mechanic makes this an interesting game from a logistical standpoint but not sure I can think it through right now.

[BFG]

 

 

I don't think my late vote on Laine looks bad when you take into account that I actively encouraged players to move over so that I could hammer. Which I did prior to Laine attempting to at least stall her lynch with the DL looming an hour away. Anybody remember her reaction to that?

 

I'm guessing wolves thought they could go for NL in that situation. Verb voting Rand over Laine to "complete the consistency" despite having a wolf read on Laine would make sense here on this theory.

 

Anyway - I'll be on break in about an hour and can respond more accordingly.

Dont like this post. I aalready raised the blue bit but here hes using it in a way that feels liek he is trying to take credit for finding it.

Verb I'm also interested in a response to the blue.

[BFG]

Dice, your opinion on Zander?

[dicetosser1]

im really tempted to CFD him right now BFG

[Andrej]

 

My break is over so that's all from me now.

 

I'll respond later.

 

In short Verb it's a glaring lack of development/progression that I can tangibly see that troubles me. It looks worse when you voted a villager over a wolf.

 

Red = that's the deal when I'm not around much.  This game was much more active than I was hoping, and I fell behind being on vacation.  Not much I can do for that - if I'm lynched for it, so be it.

 

Blue = News flash: lots of people do this.  A few others did on that very same lynch.  Rand was 100% a lynch candidate, so your logic fails here.  You're saying as a wolf I voted the villager instead of my partner.  They were both going to die - it was a matter of time.  Why not bus and buy the cred for making a switch that I'd called out in thread prior to that?

 

Don't you think "sticking to my guns" was the strategy that drew more attention to me?  Why does scum!Verbal do that, when the easy town cred is staring me in the face if I swapped to Laine?

 

This is my problem with you right now - you're not thinking things through.  I should not have to be pointing this out to you (or anybody), and it's troubling.

 

Red: You've got time. Like others have said, start digging in. Before DM went down for an entire day most of your content before now was to defend your vote on Rand over Laine, which I have addressed already.

 

Bold: Both were lynch candidates, sure. That doesn't absolve you for picking one over the other in the manner you did. BFG raises a good point in saying with this set-up bussing a wolf partner isn't good strategy when there is a finite amount of NKs. You wanted to lynch Rand and allow Laine to go into the Night phase when she could've still been armed and there was no guarantee of there being a vig left for town. THAT is a problem. This compounds when you look at the fact that there was no NK on N3.

 

Three villagers died N1. It's probably a safe bet that Hallia was vigged by Yates, but Yates/Pral were likely wolf shots so that's 2 gone. Could've been a shot from a 1x and the other from the 2x. If Laine was still loaded you would have all the reason to avoid her lynch in the hopes she'd stay alive, town cred be damned. Before I hammered there was only about 1 hour left before DL and Laine was starting to pick it up. Things could've stalled and D2 resulted with a NL because I doubt enough people would've moved in time to lynch Rand over her.

 

 

I don't think my late vote on Laine looks bad when you take into account that I actively encouraged players to move over so that I could hammer. Which I did prior to Laine attempting to at least stall her lynch with the DL looming an hour away. Anybody remember her reaction to that?

 

I'm guessing wolves thought they could go for NL in that situation. Verb voting Rand over Laine to "complete the consistency" despite having a wolf read on Laine would make sense here on this theory.

 

Anyway - I'll be on break in about an hour and can respond more accordingly.

 

Dont like this post. I aalready raised the blue bit but here hes using it in a way that feels liek he is trying to take credit for finding it.

 

Taking credit how? I remember you saying as much earlier and I thought it was a good point which is why I reiterated it. Verb's reason for sticking to Rand was to continue his consistency, as he stated and you pointed out. This is a problem when Laine flips wolf and Rand flips villager the next day, a lynch in which Verb didn't touch.

 

long story short i dont think im voting verb at this time. BUT i want you to dig in verb, We got 24 hrs or so

 

I AM looking at AJ  verbs points are valid but they are also stated at various points in the game

 

What points of his?

[Andrej]

I'm obviously the lynch, which I think is awful, but whatever.  I'm not doing the math on how many mislynches remain, but you need to sort out AJ ASAP.  No way town!AJ doesn't rethink his stance when I WAS RIGHT ON RAND.

 

Let me repeat that - I was right.  I sussed him, then started to back off....was urged back on by AJ, and then sussed by AJ for exactly that reason.

 

People, that alone should tell you something is wrong.  Now we have a Laine wolf flip and a Rand villager flip, meaning I was right to back off of Rand.  I said the lynch seemed too easy, and it was.

 

 

 

With missing a whole day to DM being down, I'm not really in the mood to start ISOing.  But I think AJ & Zander might be our remaining wolves.  AJ is playing like a cocky wolf right now - he's been town read by a few people, and is just stating things like it is a fact, or close to.  Town!AJ doesn't act like this - town!AJ is more thoughtful and willing to revisit and re-assess.  Apparently me backing off of a villager is a bad thing now?  Yeah....no.  He might be showing us his @$$ today.

 

Thane & Talya still clear.  BFG cleared as well (imo) due to claim and lack of cc.  Dice is unknown, but nothing overly weird from him.

 

I have done plenty of revisiting and reassessing this game. My track record shows it. I had Shad as a wolf D1 and later adjusted that read accordingly when I felt he was making better posts. I also sussed out Laine D2 when before that I was feeling generally okay about her.

 

Backing off Rand when he was sitting at L-1 doesn't make you a villager, you know this so stop preaching it like it does. It's called TMI for a reason. You voted Rand the day a wolf got lynched and then avoided him the following phase when he got ran up - that's how the events actually played out.

 

Verb still isn't blowing me away :( although he has picked up on my worst nightmare with an AJ/anybody mafia team lol.

 

I'm not mafia with anyone. 

 

 

so... Verb... if you flip town, we need to lynch AJ, if i read that correctly? It's an option, yes. 

 

@all the rest: what if Verb is actually right here? He flips town, what do we do?

 

Just something to keep in the back of our minds.

 

If i remember correctly, he's at L-1, right? Some replies would be nice before i hammer. 

 

Why would you want to hammer?  Do you really think I'm a wolf?

 

Wanna see Thane respond to this fwiw.

[Andrej]

[v]Rand[/v]

 

choo choo

 

[v]Rand[/v]

 

This puts him L-1

 

Let's see what he has to say before we Hammer

 

QFR later. Still think it's important to confirm Verb at this conjunction but after him it's one/two of these three.

 

Can't fault any of them too much fwiw, Rand's lynch ran up quickly so all these votes are sort of low accountability.

 

EDIT: Just realized I must've deleted Zander's vote. He's the third I'm talking about.

 

The posts look pretty towny on the whole, I think if Rand filps town, it makes Verb look better imo, from that. Reading his posts together make them feel more towny towards him, Me he did come in saying who he thought his strong town reads are.

 

What happened to this?

 

 

 

I think it's Rand/Verb an overwhelming amount of time here.

 

Verb basically doesn't want to work with town on the merit of wifom and Rand is continuing to act as if there is no reason to be suspicious of him. Like it sort of baffles me lol. Ignoring everything and everyone calling you wolf doesn't clear you, bro.

 

Think it through.  If I admit I have a shot, then I'm getting shot that night and I might not be ready for a hero shot.  If I admit I don't have a shot, then I'm probably not getting shot by the wolves in favor of them hunting for other vigs and/or Doc....and I'm probably a PoE lynch candidate at that point.

 

Had I been playing from the start, you'd never be lynching me.  The little I've been able to play this game, however, should be reminiscent of the ME game.  I suggested caution and kept rethinking things - essentially slow-playing it 100% of the time.  I'm either misclearing somebody (which will make me sad), or you're stuck in a tunnel wanting me to be a wolf.  You've played enough with me to know my towntells.  Stop ignoring them.

I'm not seeing any towntells. As I stated previously your approach to hard clearing several obvious villagers with your entrance reminds me of you D1 in SW. You've countered this by saying you did the same in ME, which Talya has agreed with. Okay - so that's null then. Not a towntell though. Also - your other dialogue I don't think is alignment indicative. The stuff you discussed with Zander where you give him reasons why Talya is a villager could easily be done if you're a wolf.

 

On the wifom note - to be frank, if you had a shot you probably should've taken it. You were voting Rand at the EOD2 and after seeing Laine flip wolf you should've known that we'd be calling for your head soon enough. Your best bet was to shoot someone (like your scum suspect), pseudo vet yourself or in the best case scenario draw the NK and subsequently be cleared with your flip.

 

 

Phase should be ending within the hour btw.

 

Please, please stay focused to my villagers out there. Don't give the wolves any relief - you hold them under water and watch them flounder. No mercy for the enemy.

 

You said essentially the same thing to me yesterday when I wasn't sure about Rand.  I eventually went back there and voted, and now you're casing the hell out of me.  Do you see the disconnect?

The only disconnect that I am seeing is that you missed the pages of casing Shad and I did on Laine when she went from L-4 to L-2 before Rand voted her and then I hammered the next morning. Sure - you may have wavered in your read on Rand a bit, but apparently you ignored all of the other evidence we had presented on Laine because when you went back to Rand you pulled a singular quote of his to use as your point.

 

You went from Rand = wolf, to Rand = not so wolfy and ignoring evidence presented on the next lynch candidate who yourself pointed out looked wolfy, to back to Rand when you had the opportunity to hammer a now confirmed wolf.

 

The 2nd and 3rd posts there are a day apart.  With AJ suggesting we stay the course, and the pages in between those posts, it isn't that difficult to imagine me changing my mind about the order in which they should die.  I even voted Rand to complete the consistency there.  The only disconnect you can see if me thinking maybe Rand is a villager and Laine is the wolf instead of both wolves....but I went back to the original thought process (again, that AJ asked me to do), and voted Rand.

 

I'm not going to repeat this again.  Pay attention to the consistency and ignore the "mind-changing", which is certainly more indicative of a villager trying to see all angles than it is a wolf going for low hanging fruit.

 

I'm not sure why you continue to reiterate the point that I asked you to stay the course. I don't control you or who your vote, you can draw your own conclusions. It seems to me that you're trying to pass the buck for responsibility because you missed out on being on the lynch of a dead wolf.

 

Underlined: As I stated previously, the pages between your original statement to your vote were full of me and Shad hammering Laine for her wolfiness. I also quoted all of Rand's posts so that you could give more insight on where your mind changed. On the note of your consistency in going from Rand is a villager and Laine a wolf instead of both wolves and then back to Rand being a wolf (and by proxy Laine still being a wolf?) why wouldn't you vote Laine in that situation when she was in hammer range? If you still thought both could be wolves then voting the one that was going to be lynched would've been the proper play.

 

All of this really isn't adding up. You said yourself that one of your strongest towntells is being the voice of reason and frankly I'm not seeing it here. This all sounds like hogwash and you trying to play damage control.

 

 

I realize I add too many adverbs to my sentences.

 

Verb you don't essentially need to find two wolves. You do.

 

And Rand wasn't essentially begging us. He was.

 

No, we do.  We as in the collective village.  Stop trying to pin this on one person.

I am pinning it on you. The collective village has been working all game. The POE currently is you and Rand. You have backed away from your read of Rand to being back on the fence, but I don't see you presenting anyone else as a candidate.

 

If it's not you, and you're unsure Rand is one - then who? There's still two wolves at large and I don't see you doing any sort of hunting for them.

 

 

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

 

You know better than this, AJ.

 

If Rand is a villager, then you need to entertain the thought that I was simply wrong.  I was leaning Rand early, started wavering, and then went back to the original thought.....WHICH YOU SUGGESTED THAT I DO.  Stop ignoring that and placing blame on me.  It makes you look silly.

 

If Rand is a wolf, then it doesn't matter which I voted, right?  It means I was right early on, incorrectly wavered, and then correctly voted a wolf (even though we lynched another one).

The only thing that looks silly is you continuing trying to point back to me telling you to stay the course when there were several more pages of development afterwards and a complete shift in the thread and vote count to who was getting lynched. You must've seen this because when you quoted Rand in the post you voted him for this was in the middle of the entire discussion.

 

Underlined: In a vacuum voting one wolf over the other when both wagons are scum would be okay. But in context to how D2 played out, it wasn't the proper one from a villager mindset. If you thought both could still be wolves, then voting for the one getting lynched was the right move over placing it on the one that wasn't. This aligns with Shad's theory of why Laine needed to be lynched first - which you advocated against and suggested instead that she should be vigged, in essence allowing her to potentially shoot again if her shot wasn't already spent before she died.

 

Worth looking at again imo. Would really love some input from anyone not named Verb on my points here.

 

Just to answer the bolded after reading back a bit: i'd try anything, even the most unlikely scenario, to not get lynched as wolf.

 

[Andrej]

Bedtime now.

 

I'll be up in the morning before work to read up and then around again during my lunch break.

 

Tomorrow night I am leaving for vacation that extends through the weekend to next Monday - so my activity level is going to be really spotty. I will still try my best to keep up though, I'll at least be around for the lynch tomorrow.

[BFG]

I think Verb's doing a good job of trying to talk himself out of a lynch. But the points he raises aren't that compelling (imo). IF Verb flips town then I think the lynch pool is in AJ/Talya/Zander, if not then the lynch pool is in Talya/Zander/Thane(?) - I kind of think that Verbs read of Thane is honest regardless of Verbs alignment, kinda like one of those Cory Dice/Tina/Tress(?) reads which is ~90% accurate regardless of Cory's alignment. Plus Thane actually has several flipped town calling him townie (Pral/Rand)

 

Verbs repeated absences from thread aren't looking great, and it wasn't just holiday, weekend, etc. When he came in he came in with a few town reads and sort of migrated towards the consensus reads, yet his 'own' reasons for those reads are inconsistent with the thread - he reads Laine as scummy for uhming and ahing over a read, yet I'm pretty sure this game I've uhmed and ahed over pretty much every read except Dice, but Verb never brings it up in relation to me. Page 61ish says that Laine/Rand are w/w this is easy, but he has some other thoughts on shooting some others - yet never elaborates.

 

Verb's play just seems too cautious/planned - which is pretty much how he defined his own mafia game.

[BFG]

 

 

Anyways

 

 

 

 

 

Zander's 'AHA' moment (Laine saying Zander linked Rand/Talya) is around Pg 60?

 

Verb says that Rand lynch looking too easy, asks for a VC/DL

 

Talya votes Alanna (as Rand sounded genuine in his confusion/nacktrack, leaving Laine looking worse) (pg 63)

 

AJ tells Verb to 'stay the course'

AJ effectively says that Rand/Laine w/w

 

Laine (2/6): Dice, Talya,

Rand (3/6) AJ, Shad, Alanna,

 

(nb - I think Seph edited/updated the (/6 from /7) mentioned because Thane later copies the VC)

 

Zander asks AJ about Rand being TWTBAW

 

Shad - if we decide that Rand/Laine are w/w we lynch Laine as she's MORE likely to have a shot left

 

AJ hates TWTBAW logic

 

AJ "Fwiw if it becomes Laine for the lynch today I don't really mind that much. Whatever way we're gonna go needs to be decided soon though. DL is tomorrow morning"

 

AJ Laine flipping mafia doesn't clear Rand

 

Zander asks for DL (NB worth noting that in this setup mafia NEED mislynches to, a No lynch hurts them as well)

 

 

 

Shad looks at Day 1 trains:

Laine (1/7): Dice, [Rand]

 

Hally (2/7) Thane, Pralaya

 

Tayla (1/7) Zander

Rand (5/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj, Hally, Yates

 

 

 

Not Voting (3/13):

 

BFG, Verb, Laine

 

A cursory glance at this makes Talya/AJ look worse :(

 

 

 

Zander asks for thoughts on Laine - unless people follow him on Talya, have to decide between Laine/Rand and Laine looking bad

 

AJ says Laine said she was VT - WHY say this? not alignment indicative, just generally why do it?

 

Shad goes through analysing Laines read on Rand and vice versa

 

Zander asks if we get more info from Rand or Laine if they flip town

 

AJ asks CFD on Laine?

 

Zander - if Rand flips town, AJ town, Talya wolf

 

Zander wants to give Laine chance to respond before CFD

 

AJ says Talya possible, also look at Verb if Rand flips town, as Verb is backing off read

 

 

Then it gets interesting

 

Starting point:

Laine (2/6): Dice, Talya,

Rand (3/6) AJ, Shad, Alanna,

 

(red/blue colour indicates votes on Laine (red)/Rand (blue))

 

Thane votes Rand (pg 66) [2/4] 'this should happen today' - Thane hasn't really been a part of the conversation at this point, but HAS said that Rand likely with a spent bullet - he repeats that when he switches votes

 

Shad agrees with Zander about Talya, but hard to swallow

 

Shad says we should lynch Laine today

 

Zander failed votes Rand so VC still [2/4]

 

Shad votes Laine 'roll with me here. We can vig Rand or lynch him tomorrow.' [3/3]

 

Zander votes Rand [3/4]

 

AJ asks Zander/Thane to move to Laine, if they all 3 move that will be a hammer.

 

Thane votes Laine 'consider it done' [4/3]

 

Unofficial VC

Laine (4/6): Dice, Talya, Shad, Thane

Rand (3/6): AJ, Laine, Zander

 

Thane/Shad/AJ - Rand should be lynched next

 

Zander thinks Rands flip gives more INFO 'Rand flips Town Talya is a Wolf Rand flips Wolf it confirms Alanna a Wolf. Thoughts?' I really don't like this given that Rand flipped town and Laine flipped mafia meh. This is actually one of the few points that makes me seriously consider AJ/Zander

 

Thane agrees with Shad, kill a wolf that can bite

 

Zander "Thane is soooo town this game it scares me!!! Good job Pops!!!

 

But we have to remember theres a 2x Vig as well. Could Alanna's push and subsequent wolfy play be an attempt to draw off of him and on to her cause he may be the 2x Vig?"

 

I think Dice brings this up about Zander NOT wanting to lynch Laine

 

AJ - Laine at L2, will hold vote to allow Europe/Oz to have a say

 

Thane - AJ/Zander should move vote and wait for hammer (covered above from initial VC saying 7 needed to vote)

 

I think Zander says he's with AJ in holding off vote?

 

Also - Shad - checked cos I'm that guy <3

 

Yup Dice with Zander not wanting to vote Laine (forgot to make a note of pages, but now at End pg 68)

 

Rand votes Laine - both self preservation, but also finds her scummy [5/3]

 

Actually really like Zanders response to Dice/Shad about not wanting to vote Laine

 

Laine comes back with fire

 

"So now you're willing to vote Rand? Why not before? And how does Talya connect to Rand, feels like you're reaching there, Zander. I think you just want anyone to be a wolf with Talya at this point so that you can lynch her, which I find odd because she's being heavily town read. At least in SW there was solid proof Yates was mafia but here you don't have the same benefits. If she ends up flipping mafia though, hats off to you for being right again when no once else would listen." Interesting, Laine clearly missed how the link happened, also maybe(?) looks bad for Talya. At the least if Zander is mafia they didn't chat on the QT first, but I don't think this is m Zander

"Zander are you seriously turning against me? You know I'm town, you believed me in the last few games and we swept mafia together. One game that I play like crap shouldn't be enough for me to get lynched. Believe me this time when I say that Rand is the way to go and not me" Still thinks this makes Zander town more often than not.

 

Laine posts lots about Rand

 

I think what's next is a few hours from deadline...

 

Shad 'could switch targets'

 

Talya "I'm happy to move to Rand, but I'm with Shad, we need to ensure a lynch today, and not waste this day, so still content to stay where I am."

 

Laine - "Since when is it not likely for scum to bus a teammate, especially one that ended up at L2? Sure they might have been pushing the Hally lynch too, and plenty of us could have voted to secure that lynch on Rand but didn't do it." possibly? interesting for Thane (Thane/Yates on Hallia Day 1) "Honestly I almost want to scrap my reads and start over to make this right but I'd have to live to do that. Ugh. If I were to name a deep wolf, it'd be Talya or BFG (Zander will be happy )" hmmmmm

 

Shad 'doesn't think they should switch'

 

Verb hahahahahaha post (in response to Rand saying it's not looking good for Verb right now)

 

Verb "I feel like Rand should die first, here, and Laine should be vigged tonight"

 

Verb votes Rand - not ready to hammer yet, but will move if necessary [5/4]

 

Official VC

Laine (5/6): Dice, Tayla, Shad, Thane, Rand

 

Rand (4/6) Aj, Alanna, Zander, Verb

 

Zander - not sure what to make of Laines ATE towards Zander, not feeling the townie so much here

 

AJ gonna hammer in next 20 minutes

 

AJ lurky Verb is scummy Verb

 

AJ votes Laine

 

Laine (6/6): Dice, Tayla, Shad, Thane, Rand, AJ

 

Rand (3/6) Alanna, Zander, Verb

 

 

 

 

Again may not be worth reading above; it's mostly notes. After the it gets interesting, which is when the voting started is more interesting

 

TLDR

 

Anyways, from Day 2 I really can't believe that AJ is teammates with Laine, although I don't know if I stop tinfoiling - given that there's no cop, this is actually a situation where bussing has a LOT of value, even a Verb mafia flip isn't going to negate this completely (imo).

 

BUT in this setup with limited mafia NK, it becomes progressively harder for mafia to win with each mislynch (this isn't a standard setup where mafia need to mislynch 3 times regardless of how many of them die, and from experience its hard winning when you have to mislynch everyone).

 

AJ brought up significant numbers of the points against Laine early and naturally. If distancing I could imagine bringing up fewer points, and pushing less hard, but the way it played out?

 

There are a couple of spots where I 'could' link AJ to Zander as mafia, mentioned one above. But the biggest thing I have on AJ (IF Verb flips town) is the way that once a lynch is certain he seems to be looking for the next. Verb is slipping down his list, and although at the time I read it as a read progression (and Verb was never out of my null list that Day, so AJs thoughts coincided with mine or started to) I 'could' see it as setting up lynches. This isn't something I'm ready to seriously consider though as it's a sort of backwards thinking approach.

 

If Verb flips town then I'll revisit this, but for now I'm happy keeping AJ in my town pile :)

 

Talya votes Laine early, but isn't really present for much of the conversation that happens after.

 

Both Zander & Thanes votes on Rand act as momentum votes AWAY from Laine which isn't a great look, however Thane easily shifts towards Laine, and I like Zanders response to Dice/Shad about this.

 

Verbs vote is WIFOM at this point, would mafia vote town over mafia when it's fairly clear which way the vote's going, BUT Talya/Shad had both indicated they might switch to Rand, AND we don't know if Laine had a shot or not. If it was standard NK then his argument here would have more weight. If he flips mafia then it may indicate that Laine still had a shot, which is exciting for us. If he flips town, ???

 

I still have issues with his VT analysis from Day 1, and there were a few points when he said that he'd return to something and didn't (part of the reason I feel his play is guarded). I think Verb is the lynch today, I'll hammer an hour or so before deadline, but want to see how much more I can get through first and also what others have to say.

 

 

 

From what I recall of Verb Day 3 he backs away from Rand, but doesn't offer alternatives and this is a BIG problem. He still hasn't explained Dice/AJ's 'consistency' question, hasn't put in #werk - something he says is in his mafia game...

 

Verb on Day 4 looks better for fighting, and has at least touched on a team I can sort of believe possible.

[BFG]

"After the it gets interesting, which is when the voting started is more interesting"

 

Learn to use words BFG

[BFG]

Post flip:

 

 

 

 

Thane: Rand next

 

Shad/AJ/BFG: Rand/Verb next

not sure I stated it, but reasoning here for me is pretty much POE from Laine's earlier ISO and my reads

 

Talya happy with Rand, needs to look at Verb

 

AJ - Rand should vote Verb, Verb looks wolfy, Rand claimed vig wants to vet himself and has Verb as a suspect if only this had happened

 

Shad/Thane/Talya/BFG agree

 

AJ floats Verb as doc theory this sketched me out at the time

 

Shad misses/Talya sees AJs doc theory

 

Shad ISO's Verb - worth noting regarding my earlier tinfoil over AJ's Verb read is that AJ floated the idea first, then Shad (conf town) ran with it; similar thing with Laine earlier

 

Zander - Talya TOOOO towny :/

 

lolDice - catchup post

 

Verb - not happy with rand vigging him

 

Rand - another one where he picks up on Verb saying 'Rand was after credit for vigging a villager' never reading the DT

 

Rand - unnerving how confident AJ is in his reads (not inclined to think that's necessarily scummy from AJ)

 

BFG - one of my posts where I think Laine spews Shad/Zander/Talya clear - not so sure anymore :/

 

Verb - defence

 

Verb - WIFOM 'I'd rather the wolves wonder if I'm bluffing or not.' looks worse for missing the point that Shad says about EON

 

BFG/Shad/AJ - Dice appeal clears Dice

 

AJ - Rand/Verb an overwhelming amount of the time.

 

Shad - Laine/Thane possibly Thane town?

 

AJ - Laine taking advice from her null read on Dice, could mean she knows I'm legit

 

Shad

I've been skimming back over a lot of stuff today and the only fishy interaction with Laine I'm finding is coming from Rand. If there's a town player between Rand and Verbal I don't know where I'd go. Not touching you or Dice unless it's F3 with you me and Dice, seriously. Zander/Talya/BFG/Thane, meh, everyone is super chilll with Thane at this point--even Rand and Verbal. I would lynch Zander before BFG and Talya personally, especially if Rand's scum and Verbal's town. A gut thing? I don't know, maybe I don't trust his lolololols as much when he's not plowing down scum like a freight train? Maybe just because he hasn't really articulated his reads on Talya/BFG but I know that's not alignment indicative for him. BFG is kicking butt on the research side of the game, she's just not putting her money where her mouth is. If Rand flips scum Talya lead two scum lynches straight out the gate and I would have to consider Thane alongside her. Rand v Verbal w doesn't make her quite as clear. Realistically we'd probably have room for three lynches between the four of them. If scum only have 1 shot left we've already won short of the dumbest town hero shot in the universe

For consideration

 

Shad - flip a coin between BFG/Zander/Talya if it comes to that...

 

 

[Zander?]

hey BFG im getting caught up now.

 

in a nutshell what do you think is the best way to go today?

[Zander?]

when is DL anyways?

[seph]

Deadline is now set 24 hours from now. I also haven't been able to get in touch with Seph so I'm a bit out of the loop.

Deadline is in around 4 hours it looks like :)

[Zander?]

 

Verb still isn't blowing me away :( although he has picked up on my worst nightmare with an AJ/anybody mafia team lol.

 

 

 

@Verb, Why Zander over Dice, given that you don't seem to have a read on Dice?

 

 

 

@Verb, if you flip town and mafia still have a shot we have no mislynches left (assuming no town vig shots left; which is possible).

 

How sure are you that Talya and Thane are town? How caught up are you in thread?

 

 

And that was a response I've been waiting for from Talya, heh (and sort of shifts everybody back to bleh :/ at least until I've finished my Day 2 reread as a minimum

 

I've only played a couple of games with Zander, and I have no wolf meta on him.  In this game, I feel like he's not willing to accept he might be wrong on Talya.  Everything she says just confirms her as a wolf for him.  For many people, this would be very suspicious.  I can't say if it means that for him, though.  Just a gut feel for me.

 

And I don't need to "blow you away".  I've been playing catchup for most of the game - I was on vacation for the start.  Not your fault, obviously, but I have been acting the same way in this game as I usually do when a villager, minus the more activity and 'harder' stances.  I had Rand and Laine early on, thought maybe v/w, and said so on thread.  My mistake was to keep after Rand and not make the switch on thread that I was making in my head.  That single event is the ONLY dirt anybody has on me.

 

Protip: villagers make those mistakes all the time - wolves hardly do, because they are thinking hard about how they are perceived.  I was not, so if anything....that is another point for me, not against me.

 

 

fwiw: I'm not wrong UNTIL I'm proven wrong. and Dude you played a few games with me.  I lock on to something i hone on hard.  I can be backed off if i see something or someone brings up a set of good points and sometimes not even then.  You've seen me go after people I go for it.  For better or worse thats how I play.  And lastly fyi your gut is wrong.

 

I disagree i think you do need to blow us away brother.  I've liked some of your posts but disliked others.  Its once again coming down to your vote on Rand instead of Alanna when you said you felt it was v/w and....

 

"but I have been acting the same way in this game as I usually do when a villager, minus the more activity and 'harder' stances"

 

you gotta see why this is causing alarms along with the vote right???!!!!