[Advanced] Star Wars Mafia

[Zander?]

ninja'd by Talya....lol

[Hallia]

VOTE COUNT! VOTE COUNT!

 

 

 

Seph(2): WomboCombo, NotBob

 

Durin(2): Dice, Csarmi

 

Leelou(2): Aiel Heart, Shad

 

Aiel Heart(1): Sili

 

WomboCombo(1): Talya

 

Dice (1): Eldrick

 

Csarmi(1): Zander

 

Sooh(1): Durin

 

 

 

Not Voting: Laine, Thaneballs32, Yates, Mawthex, Seph, Leelou, Sooh

 

With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch.

 

Deadline is TODAY, June 19th at 7:00pm PST - Countdown Timer

 

[Zander?]

[v] unvote [/v]

[Darthe]

These votes are uglier than the average Bertha

[Darthe]

[unvote ][v] Leelou [/v]

[Darthe]

I hate unvoting so much

[Zander?]

[v] Durin [/v] for raisins. 

[Darthe]

-.-

[Zander?]

lololol

 

[v] unvote [/v] i feel Hallia needs to work for her early Canadian comments

[Yates]

Math is hard. Conditional probability is my daddy.

[Shad_]

Durin would be a terrible D1 lynch.  Seriously, who has been more proactive about hunting scum in this game so far than Darthe?  Even if you don't like him he is useful to keep around right now.
AH is a blind lynch at best.
Seph's defensiveness mainly centered on people accusing him of not trying, not on people accusing him of being a wolf.  Considering how passionate he got about it, I think something would have come out.
I don't understand Dice or Csarmi, but both of them are getting a pass by more than just wolves.

I think these are all bad D1 options, and they account for 7 of the 11 standing votes at the moment.  Town aren't trying hard enough.
 

[Verbal32]

@Zander

 

just type unvote and put in in brackets - you don't need to use the v and /v

[Zander?]

Math is hard. Conditional probability is my daddy.

 

ok so we know we know about Yates

 

1. Conditional probability is my daddy.

2. His shot clock is broken

3. Is the inventor of the Bacon Bikini

 

what we dont know is who he wants to vote.

[Yates]

I just finished page 64 and I'm 30 minutes past my time to go home.

 

I'll try to get on tonight before deadline.

[Zander?]

@Zander

 

just type unvote and put in in brackets - you don't need to use the v and /v

 

Thank you Verb

 

PS- whose on the menu today?

[Yates]

what we dont know is who he wants to vote.

Things I want to know as well...

 

I have more of a core of people I DON'T want to vote.

[WWWwombat]

 

Sili wolf lean.  Mixed on Durin.  Town leans on NotBob, Sooh, Eldrick, Dice, Shad.

Can you explain your Town lean on NotBob? I find him impossible to read with his one-liners.

 

 

Asking town NotBob type questions and giving the pot a stir every once in a while.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

I haven't been following the dice & darthe interaction at all. Someone care to explain concisely?

 

 

Peeked Darthe N0.

 

Result:

 

 

 

 

Dice didn't like this post.

Right. Let me break it down.

 

It's basically a self-vote - since Turin claimed to peek his hydra buddy a wolf.

 

The REASON Dice is ascribing so much scum value to a self-vote [which is usually dumb but not really alignment indicative] is because he thinks this looks like a staged interaction orchestrated by Darthe for lulz.

 

I won't say I'm the GOAT Turin reader but I don't recall his game being self-vote lulzy. I *DO* know Darthe's meta and can absolutely see Dice being 100% on the money with this.

 

Turin has been hard defending this play by trying to force Dice into ascribing a numerical value to the odds of him doing this as Town vs Scum. And that's complete horse pucky. If that was just a joke, why not say "lulz jkjk?" This defense is really pinging hard because it's way off point and the play itself seems out of character for Turin.

 

So there you go. Now you know why I've been riding Turin to answer me for two days and why I'm annoyed that he's been ignoring my question. I think he's ignoring the question because he doesn't have a good answer.

 

I'm going to finish my reread but I'm probably voting Durin.

 

 

Good post.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

[v] unvote [/v]

 

[v] csarmi [/v]

You have been dying to do that all game...

 

 

 

Talya again with this...seriously?  Its not like ive made my case against him, he hasnt made himself look bad during his post's today or had him a wolf lean on my reads lists.....

 

You keep barking up the wrong tree.  Ive already pointed this out to you that its not a good look on you but still tried to give you the benefit of the doubt.  but that has run its course and others are seeing it as well i believe.

 

Town!Talya doesnt do this imo

 

 

Wolfy

[Netbattler11]

Holy crap, the amount of content in this game is insane. I vastly overrated my available time and ability to keep up with this. I am in discussions with hallia about possibly replacing out.

 

 

Because I was arguing to aj about the situation. The vote was simply because dice voted durin

 
Why are you protecting Durin?

He was my peek, and besides that I think they are town. There are some posts that make me wary but I think I few flips will confirm or ease those suspicions.

The seer cover was to get reactions from people. I am fine for taking heat on everything early on, but as you can see people are talking about these actions s on page 40 still.

I may or may not be the cop, if I was providing slank cover seems like the way to go, as no one thinks I could be that role.

Durin has been playing very beneficial to the town, getting conversation going attempting to help clear villagers, something that would hurt mafia. Durin should not be the lynch day one in my opinion.
Hydras are hard because, well take durin, I think Turin is playing more scummy still latching on to the aj and me back and fourth about last game. And darthe has played a solid game regardless of alignment.
If I think someone is town, and for good reason, why should I not defend them?

 

Okay, so I am caught up now, I did see that he explained this somewhat, and on the whole Seph seems townie to me... just a badly played town. This post is basically a representation of his entire problem. He appears to, in the same post, claim a n0 peek, which is impossible, and claim that that peek was seer cover, and then again waffle back and forth on whether he's the cop. I'm not a fan.

 

 

 

Rereading today something pinged me about Zander. His posts seem very "careful" for want of a better word.
 
He has been fixated on CS, in fact over 12 posts going on about his claim, how it could be mafia claim, etc. mentioning a couple of times, but this seems OTT
 
There seems to be a this need for reassurance, and buddying, at least that's how I feel.
 

 

Sooh when u are caught up tell me what you think of Zander so far.

 
what do you think of me this far?

 
 

*snip* 
could we be mindmelding? #FullZanDarther??

 
 

Yates can see into my very soul he knows me so well!!!
 
Yates I love you!!!!

 
 

*snip* 
 
@ Sili am i reading seph wrong?

 
His read list, he has done a few of these, this was the fourth he did yesterday. There has been a progression on each read, things added as the day has gone, which is good. It feels very staged? he hasn't changed on Seph, in fact keeps asking everyone what they think on him, (or Cs). Once in the list, no one seems to move (except CS who went from slight wolf to Null). It all seems careful and precise.
 

Take Two-  (I forgot some of the reads I had)
 
Town Reads-
 
Sili- like the reasoning, not jumping on things.  seems to be driving to game solve
eldrick- liking his posts.  he's engaging and asking great questions and making good observations
alanna- still liking alanna nothings changed
shad- like his interaction with seph.  hes not afraid to post his thoughts and go for broke.
 
Slight Town Reads-
 
Durin- Were seeming to agree on a fair bit.
Yates- Coming in pretty strong and trying to help the game move along.
Talya- Have had no probs thus far with her posts.
Dice- he's more engaging then when he was wolf in last game. 
 
Null-
Sooh- Been wrong on her every game thus far.  reserving judgement till later.
Csarmi- Trending up a little for me.
Thaneballs32-  need to look over these
WomboCombo-  not a fan of the early aggression but that doesn't make them scummy
 
Slight Wolf Lean-
 
Leelou- Looking back not of a big fan of the jumping AH and Sooh early.
 
 
Wolf-
 
seph.- already went into this
 
Need to see a lot more from:
 
Mawt
AH

 
 
His post I quoted earlier about Sili to ISO seph again. He answered that fine, but the bit about getting Sili to read it and change his mind also struck me as odd. i' not sure if I would put him above AWombyJ on my list, I need to go over their posts again

 
1st Bold) lol you've seen some of my back and forths with Csarmi and seph right?  ive called it like i seen and spoke my mind....try again.....
2nd Bold) Its OTT  to question someone and ask for others opinions id say its attempting to game solve....try again....
3rd) Biggest joke of all you've played with me before and know me from the Band Talya im always joking around and having fun.try again....
 
This attempt of yours on me is just making you look bad my dear.

Zander what attempt? Those are my opinions and if your going to play cocky like this ill just ignore you.

Scum if I had a gun I would shoot

Shad,thane,maw and sooh or leelou

 

 

 

And the answer is that there is a 25% chance of any slot being on the wolf team.  You put three slots together and it's 75% that there is a wolf in the group of three.  That's standard ratios.  

 

This game doesn't have standard numbers.  With 18 we can have four suped up wolves or five weak wolves.  So 4/18 is .22 and 5/18 is .27 roughly.  Thus you have between a 66% and 82% (rounding up here) chance of three players being wolves.  This averages out to 74% likelihood of there being a wolf among us.

That's not how math works. Yates (below) is closer. Following that you would get a 100% chance of finding a wolf in any given group of five people, which obviously is not a thing.

 

Nah. I pretty much never considered Seph's peek to be for real, and Day roles wouldn't really apply because he dropped it in his OP.

So?

This is probably the best summary of seph's actions.

 

I think I need to step away because I'm legit TILTED by Salami.

Someone seriously please explain what that expression means.

 

While I'm catching up - have Verb and Leelou cleared each other yet?

Wait. What? Am I missing something here?

 

 

And the answer is that there is a 25% chance of any slot being on the wolf team.  You put three slots together and it's 75% that there is a wolf in the group of three.  That's standard ratios.  
 
This game doesn't have standard numbers.  With 18 we can have four suped up wolves or five weak wolves.  So 4/18 is .22 and 5/18 is .27 roughly.  Thus you have between a 66% and 82% (rounding up here) chance of three players being wolves.  This averages out to 74% likelihood of there being a wolf among us.

LAWL - not even close. This is a problem of probability and combinations. The math is way too hard but ends up being ~30%.

 

Something like that. 

[Hallia]

Darthe, I accepted your unvote, and I put a question to you all, if the unvote is a hassle, I can remove the requirement if the majority of people want it.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

 

 

[v] unvote [/v]

 

[v] csarmi [/v]

You have been dying to do that all game...

 

 

 

Talya again with this...seriously?  Its not like ive made my case against him, he hasnt made himself look bad during his post's today or had him a wolf lean on my reads lists.....

 

You keep barking up the wrong tree.  Ive already pointed this out to you that its not a good look on you but still tried to give you the benefit of the doubt.  but that has run its course and others are seeing it as well i believe.

 

Town!Talya doesnt do this imo

 

 

Bold.

 

Villagers wanna lynch wolves.

Wolves wanna lynch people (villagers) who look bad.

 

 

 

so by this logic wouldnt wolves just try to play bad so their not lynched....lol.

 

your people who are voting me cause im playing poorly must be a wolf defense isnt washing with me,

 

if im not getting what your explaining please let me know

 

 

Not an uncommon wolf strat actually.

[Hallia]

VOTE COUNT! VOTE COUNT!

 

 

 

Seph(2): WomboCombo, NotBob

 

Durin(2): Dice, Csarmi

 

Leelou(3): Aiel Heart, Shad, Durin

 

Aiel Heart(1): Sili

 

WomboCombo(1): Talya

 

Dice (1): Eldrick

 

 

 

 

Not Voting: Laine, Thaneballs32, Yates, Mawthex, Seph, Leelou, Sooh, Zander

 

With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch.

 

Deadline is TODAY, June 19th at 7:00pm PST - Countdown Timer

[csarmi]

 

Seph I meant your post as a whole.

I'm gonna ride you hard this game. No freebies like last time and I haven't even decided what I think your alignment is yet

Something not right about this post. I'm not sure what yet. I'm tired and will be off to sleep soon. Maybe I'll figure it out in the morning.

Not ww.

[Hallia]

CLOV HAS SUBBED IN FOR MAWTHEX