[Advanced] Once Upon a Time Mafia- Game Over, Town Wins!!!

[Andrej]

I'll actually post quotes later. For now I was just reading through. I've got to run soon to pick my son up from his babysitter

[wheeloftime13]

Official Vote Count

RTE (1/6): Turin
Dawn (2/6): RTE, Tsuki
TG (2/6): AJ, Thane

Deadline: Saturday May 10, 20:00 EST http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140510T20&p0=814&msg=OUAT+Mafia+Day+3

 

just so you guys know, ed was replaced by Thane and TG said that his posting was limited to none until tomorrow due to being busy...

[Andrej]

Thane3.

 

I would also feel bad killing you again

 

It would seriously be the worst luck if you replaced in so many times in one game and the last time around got a scum role, but I'm not sure of the likelihood of you being town 3/3 is either. Definitely keeping my eye on you. Your change in stance on Tsuki is the first notable thing. Nikon seems to be arbitrarily taking you off his scum list as well now that Ed's slot can be active again.

[Andrej]

I would almost*

[Nikonis]

  On 5/8/2014 at 8:58 PM, Andrej said:

@Nikon - why would Ed have been on your list above TG for inactivity?

Technically he was one of my neutrals but since we were asked for no neutrals and only Town/Scum opinions he was rounded up since there are probably three or four mafia members.  Same with BFG but she was neutral because I couldn't read her posts either way, not inactivity.  I feel that Thane(3) should have a chance since we haven't caught any scum yet and I really don't want another town lynch if we can help it.

[Talmanes]

RTE, thank you for clarifying your character. I definitely would not have pegged Henry as the Cop, seems much more likely to be Emma, but Henry is plausible, as he was the one trying to figure out who everyone was in the show. I'm not 100% convinced, but I don't think it is a good idea to lynch someone who could be one of the most important roles.

 

Tsuki is looking more and more argumentative, which could be genuine, or as I said before could mean he has something to hide. The whole list thing still catches my eye for obvious (well I think so anyway) reasons, and the attack on AJ could be trying to distract.

 

AJ is interesting because there are many things that have come across as scum for him, but also many things that come across as town. AJ is another that I don't know if I would be comfortable with lynching at this point, as I really don't want to lynch him and have him turn out town.

 

Dawn still looks bad to me based on her play throughout the whole game. The only thing that is saving me from just voting her to be done with the whole thing is the fact that I just really can't see someone being coached and still playing with that level of naiveté.

 

I'm a little hesitant on TG as much of the reasoning for killing him seems to be because he is inactive. Normally I support killing off inactive players to some extent, but at the point we are at in the game it would be extremely counterproductive to end up lynching a townie just because they aren't posting much. That being said, like I mentioned before that after hammer vote looks bad. It is definitely a possibility that he was trying to swoop in and get a quick hammer vote while trying to just look like he didn't have time to read. I would like to hear from him again before making a decision.

 

I'm just putting my thoughts out for now, as it is very difficult to go back and forth through posts on my phone. When I have more time and am on a computer later tonight, I'll take a deeper look and determine who I want to vote for.

[dawnflower8]

  On 5/8/2014 at 6:12 PM, Andrej said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

  On 5/2/2014 at 1:07 AM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not sure about Ithi being town. The question dodging seemed pretty scummy to me.

 

Remains consistent with her read on Ithi. I agree on the question dodging as well.

 

  On 5/4/2014 at 8:22 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you are "interested" in me? Why? And does this mean you think I'm scum, or mean that you're just getting mixed reads from me, or what? 

 

Questions RTE's commentary about her for for clarification. It isn't just the fact that she questions this reads, but in the way she goes about it. It's not like she's necessarily trying to disprove it off the back (which typically I might find a little suspicious) but instead she is asking for clarification so she can perhaps understand where they are coming from. This is a pretty good sign imo.

 

  On 5/5/2014 at 4:08 AM, dawnflower8 said:

So you think Hallia is the vig?

 

This one bugged me a bit when I saw it in real time - I didn't like how she popped in to reaffirm his conclusion, kind of gave me the vibe that if she were scum she had just found her potential NK target.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:34 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So, if you are wondering why I voted Basel for defending me but later defended AJ:

 

Basel defended me because I was new and thought I was incapable of making a vote that made sense, or something like that (even though it was a jokevote) 

"Being new" is a bad reason to clear someone, especially at such an early point in the game. I had done nothing at that point that seemed town, so him defending me that early in the game was really unusual. 

 

I defended AJ because it was later on in the game, he had made a lot more posts, and all of his posts seemed very town to me. 

 

I like this response a lot - this was in regards to people (including myself) pointing out that it was weird of Dawn to defend me while she was voting Basel for defending her.

 

Definite townie feeling post here.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:51 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ok. 

 

This may sound like a bandwagon, but Thane seems scummiest to me. During the first day, he seemed probably the next scummiest after Basel - especially with his weird reaction to my joke vote and then him jokevoting after I did. It just seems weird. Vote Thane. 

 

This is kinda meh. She's consistent at least in that her scum read of Thane1 didn't change and backs it up with a vote. She was 2nd on his wagon I think?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:33 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you talk about how Hallia is so obviously mafia, but you'd rather get Thane lynched? Why?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:44 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm really having second thoughts about being so convinced AJ was town right now...

 

These are pretty valid observations/questions on Dawn's part. A lot of other players were concerned about this as well as it seemed to be the main issue revolving around AJ/Thane1 on D2. I still don't really like the comment from Tsuki in the nested quotes here, objective or not.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:55 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not trying to lynch you right now. My read on you has just changed from town to mixed, not town to scum, because you played very town on the first day. 

 

Level-headed and good tone in this post. I responded a little brashly to her question and she comes back pretty calmly to explain that she no longer thinks I am so firmly town, just more null but not yet scum. This is good - it shows she is continuing to evaluate and allowing her reads to adjust organically as the game progresses.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 5:16 PM, dawnflower8 said:

How about Ithi? I'm pretty sure she's scum. 

 

This was after Hallia and I character claimed and Thane1 was continuing to protest his towniness. Normally I might see this as a bit nudgy since it wasn't backed with a vote, but her stepping out to suggest Ithi takes some serious cajones imo. I don't see a scum-Dawn doing such a thing.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 11:13 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I know that he was hammered. It was just more evidence toward him most likely being scum. (Even though he is dead, anyway)

 

TG's vote on Thane was kind of pointless. It was just a random bandwagon vote with no backup after the hammer vote. I'm going to assume that TG didn't even read the last page. 

 

Comments on the TG post-hammer hammer vote. I agree that it seems he didn't read the last page either, my guess is that he checked the QT and saw them deliberating about whether Thane1's self vote was going to count. He was either hammered or at L-1 at the point, which then TG could've just came onto thread and cast the final vote just in case. Definitely sketchy behavior.

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 2:28 PM, dawnflower8 said:

...except I DO have a reason.

 

I noticed nothing about Tina. 

 

Ithi is scummy because of her trying to avoid me answering a question I asked her (about a random vote, I think) by just asking me more questions. 

 

 

Also, AJ, how come you've changed your read on me from scum to town?

 

This was in response to Turin when he presses her about her Ithi read. She's consistent with her reasoning which I agree with. She also questions me again when my read changes (again lol).

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 3:19 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ithi randomly comes in after not posting for a long time and votes AJ. That's all she does. She gives no backup for it. I ask her why. She responds by asking why I think AJ is town, and doesn't answer, and we have a long conversation involving me trying to get her to tell me why she thinks a player I, at the time, was certain was town, and she just responded with more questions - never answering my original one. 

 

More commentary on Ithi's game entrance. I can see from her POV how Dawn genuinely found this odd, which explains her answers. The way she was able to answer Ithi's questions plainly and in a straightforward fashion is also a good sign. I too was bothered with how Ithi was deflecting Dawn's questions and instead continue to barage her with her own.

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 5:06 PM, dawnflower8 said:

No. If I was the vig, I would've shot Ithi.

 

And I'm not the vig. 

 

Damnit - I thought I was beginning to figure it out. I kind of wish I was right in this case, then I would have more reason to stick my neck out than I already am - but meh.

 

 

 

 

I'm just about ready to lock Dawn in on my town list after reading her over again. If you ACTUALLY READ her posts and think about where her line of questioning comes from I think you will find rather easily that she is town this game. Her push today feels very scum motivated (*cough cough* Tsuki) looking for the easy lynch bait to push through.

 

Not gonna happen my friend.

 

Every single post of yours is making you look scummier and scummier. 

 

Why would you take so much time to go through ALL MY POSTS to defend specifically me? If you are town, I'm not sure why you are focusing so much on proving me town. If you are scum, however, I know what you are doing. You are trying to make us look like an obvious scum-team, and based on which of us gets lynched first, it would either make me look like scum or you look like town. I think you thought this would be incredibly easy to do because of my defense of you in the earlier game. You being scum seems like the more likely option. 

 

I really don't like your gameplay here. Not at all. 

 

Vote AJ

[Turin Turambar]

Again, I do not see a way that AJ and Dawn can be mafia-mafia. Any theories that go that way should be shelved. 

 

RTE, you comment when I originally asked for the list. It seemed that you knew what I was doing. What do you think I am doing? You also mentioned something about painting a big target on my back for the mafia. I have a theory about that. I think they thought that Ithi was the doc and that is why they killed her last night. Obviously she wasn't. There may not even be a Doc in this game. Unlikely but possible. I think that it is more likely that the RB is there to counter the likelihood of a vig/SK and also possible other mafia roles. I imagine they must have some other than the expected GF/ST type things. So far of the town losses all except Tina/Ithi/Thane2 have been VT so this is not a role madness game. Character claims are allowed so it would seem natural that there are some sort of fake claims provided to the mafia. The WIFOM comes in when you ask how big of a character would be given. There were 16 characters in the game and maybe Talmanes or Nikon who seem to know the most about the show can answer if the ones that have died would be considered major. I don't know any of them but did see the Blue fairy when I looked up my own character to have an idea of some things. 

 

1. dawnflower8
2. Nikon
3. dicetosser1 Grumpy, town vanilla killed Night 1
4. Chae Prince Charming, town vanilla killed Night 1
5. Tina Ithillian Thane 2 Blue Fairy, town roleblocker killed Night 2
6. Thane Granny, town vanilla lynched Day 2
7. RTE- Claimed Henry and town cop
8. TGlems
9. IceTurin
10. AJ
11. Basel Cinderella, town vanilla lynched Day 1
12. edThane3.0
13. Hallia- Claimed Snow White no role???- claimed viewed by RTE N2 (result Town)
14. Talmanes
15. BFG
16. Tsukibana

 

I still have some doubts about RTE and his claim. I don't think that we can lynch him today. I would consider lynching Hallia today to test his claim. I would also consider lynching Tsuki today. The way he claimed to be voting RTE due to him pushing at the deaded Ithi and then refused to vote AJ who was the one doing the action he assigned to RTE doesn't make sense. Added to the entire list kerfluffle and the large number of snipe type posts early and his pile of banter with Hallia that basically just boosted both their post counts. 

 

AJ I still have some doubts about as well. But percentages say he isn't mafia. Likewise with Dawn. So they are both on the shelf for me today. 

 

Nikon has moved lower down my suspect list with his quick response to my list request. I do still have some issues with the early "townie talk" that both he and Thane have engaged in. Thane has continued it from when he was town (twice) so it may just be a sign of new players. I will have to look at Thane's posts again to see if there is any change in style since his last replacement. Ed pinged very little to me. The only thing I really recall from him was when he sniped at Dawn for her "I'm not on any team" line by asking if she was 3rd party. 

 

That leaves TG, BFG and Talmanes. Personally I can't see mafia TG being willing to lurk as much as he has this game. BFG missing both EODs so not having any voting analysis is a difficult thing since I know she knows how to make townie posts as mafia. Talmanes I never played with. I think the only one in the game who had was Ed. He sounds like he is trying to solve the game. Hopefully he gets to his computer tonight and can post some good thoughts.

[Tsukibana]

 

  On 5/9/2014 at 2:41 AM, Turin Turambar said:

 

I still have some doubts about RTE and his claim. I don't think that we can lynch him today. I would consider lynching Hallia today to test his claim. I would also consider lynching Tsuki today. The way he claimed to be voting RTE due to him pushing at the deaded Ithi and then refused to vote AJ who was the one doing the action he assigned to RTE doesn't make sense. Added to the entire list kerfluffle and the large number of snipe type posts early and his pile of banter with Hallia that basically just boosted both their post counts.

 

Come off this crap. First off, that list was no "kerfuffle". it was the best I knew how to do, since I didn't know how to do that multiquote thing. So sue me. And as for a pile of banter?? WTF are you smoking? I posted 4  or 5 initial early posts to Hallia. Nice try.

 

You are really starting to ping me, Turin. You come in, throw your weight around, issue demands, suddenly back off when I call your salesman psych-bs (What, no griping about more formatting yet today :( You disappoint me).

 

"Any theories that go that way should be shelved"... WTH kind of defense is this? "These are not the scum you are looking for"?

[Tsukibana]

[Tsukibana]

  On 5/9/2014 at 2:41 AM, Turin Turambar said:

 

 

I still have some doubts about RTE and his claim. I don't think that we can lynch him today. I would consider lynching Hallia today to test his claim. I would also consider lynching Tsuki today. The way he claimed to be voting RTE due to him pushing at the deaded Ithi and then refused to vote AJ who was the one doing the action he assigned to RTE doesn't make sense. Added to the entire list kerfluffle and the large number of snipe type posts early and his pile of banter with Hallia that basically just boosted both their post counts. 

 

I REFUSE TO VOTE AJ BECAUSE I THINK DAWN IS THE PR, AND WANT TO NUKE THE PR TODAY. People seriously can't be this dense without trying. I explained all of this earlier. Jeesh.

[Turin Turambar]

I will just say that most likely neither of them are mafia and I can see no way in which they are mafia together. If you don't get what I am saying then I can't help you any more at this time. 

 

The request for a list had nothing to do with multi quoting. How do you get that it did?It would require at most to quote the OP and trim the unwanted things. It was more that you flat out didn't want to comply. If I was draconian in my verbage then too bad. I had thought that you had complied but now I look back and see not so much. I would still like your list. it might be your salvation. 

 

Day 1 to have 4-5 posts with a single player on a variety of topics is a lot.  

 

funny meme. 

[Tsukibana]

  On 5/9/2014 at 12:51 AM, dawnflower8 said:

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 6:12 PM, Andrej said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

  On 5/2/2014 at 1:07 AM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not sure about Ithi being town. The question dodging seemed pretty scummy to me.

 

Remains consistent with her read on Ithi. I agree on the question dodging as well.

 

  On 5/4/2014 at 8:22 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you are "interested" in me? Why? And does this mean you think I'm scum, or mean that you're just getting mixed reads from me, or what? 

 

Questions RTE's commentary about her for for clarification. It isn't just the fact that she questions this reads, but in the way she goes about it. It's not like she's necessarily trying to disprove it off the back (which typically I might find a little suspicious) but instead she is asking for clarification so she can perhaps understand where they are coming from. This is a pretty good sign imo.

 

  On 5/5/2014 at 4:08 AM, dawnflower8 said:

So you think Hallia is the vig?

 

This one bugged me a bit when I saw it in real time - I didn't like how she popped in to reaffirm his conclusion, kind of gave me the vibe that if she were scum she had just found her potential NK target.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:34 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So, if you are wondering why I voted Basel for defending me but later defended AJ:

 

Basel defended me because I was new and thought I was incapable of making a vote that made sense, or something like that (even though it was a jokevote) 

"Being new" is a bad reason to clear someone, especially at such an early point in the game. I had done nothing at that point that seemed town, so him defending me that early in the game was really unusual. 

 

I defended AJ because it was later on in the game, he had made a lot more posts, and all of his posts seemed very town to me. 

 

I like this response a lot - this was in regards to people (including myself) pointing out that it was weird of Dawn to defend me while she was voting Basel for defending her.

 

Definite townie feeling post here.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:51 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ok. 

 

This may sound like a bandwagon, but Thane seems scummiest to me. During the first day, he seemed probably the next scummiest after Basel - especially with his weird reaction to my joke vote and then him jokevoting after I did. It just seems weird. Vote Thane. 

 

This is kinda meh. She's consistent at least in that her scum read of Thane1 didn't change and backs it up with a vote. She was 2nd on his wagon I think?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:33 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you talk about how Hallia is so obviously mafia, but you'd rather get Thane lynched? Why?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:44 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm really having second thoughts about being so convinced AJ was town right now...

 

These are pretty valid observations/questions on Dawn's part. A lot of other players were concerned about this as well as it seemed to be the main issue revolving around AJ/Thane1 on D2. I still don't really like the comment from Tsuki in the nested quotes here, objective or not.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:55 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not trying to lynch you right now. My read on you has just changed from town to mixed, not town to scum, because you played very town on the first day. 

 

Level-headed and good tone in this post. I responded a little brashly to her question and she comes back pretty calmly to explain that she no longer thinks I am so firmly town, just more null but not yet scum. This is good - it shows she is continuing to evaluate and allowing her reads to adjust organically as the game progresses.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 5:16 PM, dawnflower8 said:

How about Ithi? I'm pretty sure she's scum. 

 

This was after Hallia and I character claimed and Thane1 was continuing to protest his towniness. Normally I might see this as a bit nudgy since it wasn't backed with a vote, but her stepping out to suggest Ithi takes some serious cajones imo. I don't see a scum-Dawn doing such a thing.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 11:13 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I know that he was hammered. It was just more evidence toward him most likely being scum. (Even though he is dead, anyway)

 

TG's vote on Thane was kind of pointless. It was just a random bandwagon vote with no backup after the hammer vote. I'm going to assume that TG didn't even read the last page. 

 

Comments on the TG post-hammer hammer vote. I agree that it seems he didn't read the last page either, my guess is that he checked the QT and saw them deliberating about whether Thane1's self vote was going to count. He was either hammered or at L-1 at the point, which then TG could've just came onto thread and cast the final vote just in case. Definitely sketchy behavior.

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 2:28 PM, dawnflower8 said:

...except I DO have a reason.

 

I noticed nothing about Tina. 

 

Ithi is scummy because of her trying to avoid me answering a question I asked her (about a random vote, I think) by just asking me more questions. 

 

 

Also, AJ, how come you've changed your read on me from scum to town?

 

This was in response to Turin when he presses her about her Ithi read. She's consistent with her reasoning which I agree with. She also questions me again when my read changes (again lol).

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 3:19 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ithi randomly comes in after not posting for a long time and votes AJ. That's all she does. She gives no backup for it. I ask her why. She responds by asking why I think AJ is town, and doesn't answer, and we have a long conversation involving me trying to get her to tell me why she thinks a player I, at the time, was certain was town, and she just responded with more questions - never answering my original one. 

 

More commentary on Ithi's game entrance. I can see from her POV how Dawn genuinely found this odd, which explains her answers. The way she was able to answer Ithi's questions plainly and in a straightforward fashion is also a good sign. I too was bothered with how Ithi was deflecting Dawn's questions and instead continue to barage her with her own.

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 5:06 PM, dawnflower8 said:

No. If I was the vig, I would've shot Ithi.

 

And I'm not the vig. 

 

Damnit - I thought I was beginning to figure it out. I kind of wish I was right in this case, then I would have more reason to stick my neck out than I already am - but meh.

 

 

 

 

I'm just about ready to lock Dawn in on my town list after reading her over again. If you ACTUALLY READ her posts and think about where her line of questioning comes from I think you will find rather easily that she is town this game. Her push today feels very scum motivated (*cough cough* Tsuki) looking for the easy lynch bait to push through.

 

Not gonna happen my friend.

 

Every single post of yours is making you look scummier and scummier. 

 

Why would you take so much time to go through ALL MY POSTS to defend specifically me? If you are town, I'm not sure why you are focusing so much on proving me town. If you are scum, however, I know what you are doing. You are trying to make us look like an obvious scum-team, and based on which of us gets lynched first, it would either make me look like scum or you look like town. I think you thought this would be incredibly easy to do because of my defense of you in the earlier game. You being scum seems like the more likely option. 

 

I really don't like your gameplay here. Not at all. 

 

Vote AJ

 

 

Your best post comes on day 3. If you have this level of insight into the game, your lurking tactic is the worst I have ever seen from a townie. If NOT, then you are blatantly being coached, and I am about to here from AJ (and Turin) how scum would never be "sooo obvious to coach like that", as if audacious play is just impossible. Not to mention I have been casing the hell out of you, and all you can do is come in and post votes and then vanish. Ugh.

[Turin Turambar]

Deep breaths Tsuki. Deep breaths. 

 

You think Dawn is a PR and AJ is defending her. Okay, What do you think she is? Why do you think that she is more important to the mafia than AJ? What would you say If I said I believe that it is virtually impossible that they are both mafia? Which one would you think is more likely to be mafia?

[Tsukibana]

  On 5/8/2014 at 2:05 AM, Tsukibana said:

Tsuki - Town

Hallia - Town

Turin - Town

RTE - Town

AJ - Town

 

 

Dawn - Scum

Nikon - Scum

TG - Scum

BFG - Scum

Talmanes - Scum

Ed - Scum

 

These are my reads. The closer you are to the top of the list, the more confident I am of my read.

 

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 3:00 AM, Tsukibana said:

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 2:25 AM, Turin Turambar said:

Can we please get the lists in the correct format? 

 

Turin is town.  not Turin-town or Turin: town 

Nit-pick much?? I fail to see the difference. I gave you a list, organized from top to bottom, of every player, with no qualifiers and no hedging or nulls - and you pick because people have individual style?

Now you come across as attempting to dominate the other players. Revising MY list.

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 2:05 AM, Tsukibana said:

Tsuki - Town

Hallia - Town

RTE - Town

AJ - Town

Turin - Town

 

Dawn - Scum

Nikon - Scum

TG - Scum

BFG - Scum

Talmanes - Scum

Ed - Scum

 

These are my reads. The closer you are to the top of the list, the more confident I am of my read.

 

 

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 6:30 PM, Tsukibana said:

 

Seems to me you don't need any help looking bad.

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 2:05 AM, Tsukibana said:

Tsuki - Town

Hallia - Town

RTE - Town

Nikon - Town

Turin - Town

 

AJ - Scum

Dawn - Scum

TG - Scum

BFG - Scum

Talmanes - Scum

Ed - Scum

 

These are my reads. The closer you are to the top of the list, the more confident I am of my read.

 I need more from the lurkers. I really don't see 3 scum this game, but I don't know enough about distribution.

 

Dawn, and AJ are now my top 2. They are way too close. I don't care which one. The only reason I can see AJ going so far out of his way to defend Dawn is she has a PR. Roleblocker. That is why he tried to get Hallia to confirm her Vig claim yesterday. Dawn is probably being very inactive, just like she is in the other game she is in, not posting in the QT, and acting very flighty. Subtly, AJ has done a damn good job steering suspicion away from her, but I think the jig is up.

 

 

 

I have made your list 3 times. If you refuse to accept them on the basis of the me using "Turin  - Town" rather than "Turin is Town", then tough.

 

As for the "list kerfuffle" in my last post, I thought you were referring to the weird way I tried to list the connection I see between AJ and Dawn.

 

I like that meme as well. It is my first. Kinda proud.

[Tsukibana]

  On 5/9/2014 at 3:24 AM, Turin Turambar said:

Deep breaths Tsuki. Deep breaths. 

 

You think Dawn is a PR and AJ is defending her. Okay, What do you think she is? Why do you think that she is more important to the mafia than AJ? What would you say If I said I believe that it is virtually impossible that they are both mafia? Which one would you think is more likely to be mafia?

 

have you READ my posts for the day?!?!? I believe she is RB. I believe AJ has to subtly protect his scum teams only PR, since it is in the hands of an inexperienced player. I believe that makes her the one to be dropped first. Why don't YOU tell me why my casing of the link between them is wrong?? 

[Turin Turambar]

How likely do you think it is that the mafia has only a RB in this game? I don't think anyone has been blocked as yet. Maybe the shooter of N1 should come forward and say if they were blocked. 

 

Why do you think she is voting him right now? 

 

Without going through your case I can say that mechanically the possibility of them both being mafia is really really small. Like winning the lottery after being bitten by a shark and having your ambulance get struck by lightning  on the way to the hospital..

[Turin Turambar]

If anyone is being set up as the deep wolf it is AJ. 

[Tsukibana]

There wass an 18.75% chance that they were both scum at the beginning of the game. Now there is a 23.07% chance.

Maybe I should go buy lotto tickets.

[Tsukibana]

Let me clarify - those percentages assume 3 scum, and include the calculation of that third person.

[Turin Turambar]

What do you currently calculate is the likelihood that Hallia is mafia?

[Tsukibana]

Actual calculations?? Singly, every one has a 50/50 shot. Taken as a group, any single person's odds are 6 percent.

[Turin Turambar]

So you are saying that her being viewed town by the claimed cop has no bearing on the likelihood she is mafia?

[dawnflower8]

  On 5/9/2014 at 3:21 AM, Tsukibana said:

 

  On 5/9/2014 at 12:51 AM, dawnflower8 said:

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 6:12 PM, Andrej said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

  On 5/2/2014 at 1:07 AM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not sure about Ithi being town. The question dodging seemed pretty scummy to me.

 

Remains consistent with her read on Ithi. I agree on the question dodging as well.

 

  On 5/4/2014 at 8:22 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you are "interested" in me? Why? And does this mean you think I'm scum, or mean that you're just getting mixed reads from me, or what? 

 

Questions RTE's commentary about her for for clarification. It isn't just the fact that she questions this reads, but in the way she goes about it. It's not like she's necessarily trying to disprove it off the back (which typically I might find a little suspicious) but instead she is asking for clarification so she can perhaps understand where they are coming from. This is a pretty good sign imo.

 

  On 5/5/2014 at 4:08 AM, dawnflower8 said:

So you think Hallia is the vig?

 

This one bugged me a bit when I saw it in real time - I didn't like how she popped in to reaffirm his conclusion, kind of gave me the vibe that if she were scum she had just found her potential NK target.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:34 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So, if you are wondering why I voted Basel for defending me but later defended AJ:

 

Basel defended me because I was new and thought I was incapable of making a vote that made sense, or something like that (even though it was a jokevote) 

"Being new" is a bad reason to clear someone, especially at such an early point in the game. I had done nothing at that point that seemed town, so him defending me that early in the game was really unusual. 

 

I defended AJ because it was later on in the game, he had made a lot more posts, and all of his posts seemed very town to me. 

 

I like this response a lot - this was in regards to people (including myself) pointing out that it was weird of Dawn to defend me while she was voting Basel for defending her.

 

Definite townie feeling post here.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 1:51 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ok. 

 

This may sound like a bandwagon, but Thane seems scummiest to me. During the first day, he seemed probably the next scummiest after Basel - especially with his weird reaction to my joke vote and then him jokevoting after I did. It just seems weird. Vote Thane. 

 

This is kinda meh. She's consistent at least in that her scum read of Thane1 didn't change and backs it up with a vote. She was 2nd on his wagon I think?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:33 PM, dawnflower8 said:

So you talk about how Hallia is so obviously mafia, but you'd rather get Thane lynched? Why?

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:44 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm really having second thoughts about being so convinced AJ was town right now...

 

These are pretty valid observations/questions on Dawn's part. A lot of other players were concerned about this as well as it seemed to be the main issue revolving around AJ/Thane1 on D2. I still don't really like the comment from Tsuki in the nested quotes here, objective or not.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 2:55 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I'm not trying to lynch you right now. My read on you has just changed from town to mixed, not town to scum, because you played very town on the first day. 

 

Level-headed and good tone in this post. I responded a little brashly to her question and she comes back pretty calmly to explain that she no longer thinks I am so firmly town, just more null but not yet scum. This is good - it shows she is continuing to evaluate and allowing her reads to adjust organically as the game progresses.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 5:16 PM, dawnflower8 said:

How about Ithi? I'm pretty sure she's scum. 

 

This was after Hallia and I character claimed and Thane1 was continuing to protest his towniness. Normally I might see this as a bit nudgy since it wasn't backed with a vote, but her stepping out to suggest Ithi takes some serious cajones imo. I don't see a scum-Dawn doing such a thing.

 

  On 5/6/2014 at 11:13 PM, dawnflower8 said:

I know that he was hammered. It was just more evidence toward him most likely being scum. (Even though he is dead, anyway)

 

TG's vote on Thane was kind of pointless. It was just a random bandwagon vote with no backup after the hammer vote. I'm going to assume that TG didn't even read the last page. 

 

Comments on the TG post-hammer hammer vote. I agree that it seems he didn't read the last page either, my guess is that he checked the QT and saw them deliberating about whether Thane1's self vote was going to count. He was either hammered or at L-1 at the point, which then TG could've just came onto thread and cast the final vote just in case. Definitely sketchy behavior.

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 2:28 PM, dawnflower8 said:

...except I DO have a reason.

 

I noticed nothing about Tina. 

 

Ithi is scummy because of her trying to avoid me answering a question I asked her (about a random vote, I think) by just asking me more questions. 

 

 

Also, AJ, how come you've changed your read on me from scum to town?

 

This was in response to Turin when he presses her about her Ithi read. She's consistent with her reasoning which I agree with. She also questions me again when my read changes (again lol).

 

  On 5/7/2014 at 3:19 PM, dawnflower8 said:

Ithi randomly comes in after not posting for a long time and votes AJ. That's all she does. She gives no backup for it. I ask her why. She responds by asking why I think AJ is town, and doesn't answer, and we have a long conversation involving me trying to get her to tell me why she thinks a player I, at the time, was certain was town, and she just responded with more questions - never answering my original one. 

 

More commentary on Ithi's game entrance. I can see from her POV how Dawn genuinely found this odd, which explains her answers. The way she was able to answer Ithi's questions plainly and in a straightforward fashion is also a good sign. I too was bothered with how Ithi was deflecting Dawn's questions and instead continue to barage her with her own.

 

  On 5/8/2014 at 5:06 PM, dawnflower8 said:

No. If I was the vig, I would've shot Ithi.

 

And I'm not the vig. 

 

Damnit - I thought I was beginning to figure it out. I kind of wish I was right in this case, then I would have more reason to stick my neck out than I already am - but meh.

 

 

 

 

I'm just about ready to lock Dawn in on my town list after reading her over again. If you ACTUALLY READ her posts and think about where her line of questioning comes from I think you will find rather easily that she is town this game. Her push today feels very scum motivated (*cough cough* Tsuki) looking for the easy lynch bait to push through.

 

Not gonna happen my friend.

 

Every single post of yours is making you look scummier and scummier. 

 

Why would you take so much time to go through ALL MY POSTS to defend specifically me? If you are town, I'm not sure why you are focusing so much on proving me town. If you are scum, however, I know what you are doing. You are trying to make us look like an obvious scum-team, and based on which of us gets lynched first, it would either make me look like scum or you look like town. I think you thought this would be incredibly easy to do because of my defense of you in the earlier game. You being scum seems like the more likely option. 

 

I really don't like your gameplay here. Not at all. 

 

Vote AJ

 

 

Your best post comes on day 3. If you have this level of insight into the game, your lurking tactic is the worst I have ever seen from a townie. If NOT, then you are blatantly being coached, and I am about to here from AJ (and Turin) how scum would never be "sooo obvious to coach like that", as if audacious play is just impossible. Not to mention I have been casing the hell out of you, and all you can do is come in and post votes and then vanish. Ugh.

 

I'm not being coached. I also cannot post as much as I'd like because I'm busy with school.

[Hallia]

Turin - You forgot  a claim.  AJ claimed Jiminy Cricket, but no role.