[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

[hazelkrs1]

Alright here's what I got. Surprisingly, I think I found some really good leads. Without further ado...

 

I'm just kidding that's not Ishy's real role and he's not modkilled I'm just really bored and Monday can't come soon enough. /trollmod

 

Hate to have to game the mod on something like this, but I doubt Nol would have faked modkilling Ishy as a "mafia roleblocker" if he really was scum. Would give Ishy way too good of a reason to bitch at him forever if he got lynched later on because of it.

 

Also think Ishy is town because of his voting record, he was one of the few who didn't just jump on the Cloud train, he tried keeping the Leelou train somewhat even with the Cloud train for a bit before consolidating.

 

 

:feels left out:

 

 

Sorry, I haven't played with you so I can't predict who would kill you.  I might be able to tell a few days in though.

 

 

This was in response to Wombat's N0 post where he said who would the culprit be if certain people died... this could be nothing, but Wombat automatically assuming BFG COULD be killed, meaning she'd be town, could be a slip.

 

Kinda doubt that Wombat would slip like that as scum tho, and overall I get a town vibe from him. Either way, thought worth pointing out.

 

Meh.  I never really got into Pac's Bastard Mod checks or Lynch Nolder Wednesdays.  Besides, we already know he's a bastard mod.

 

Yup.

 

 

 

Vote Darthe

 

Get your own person to joke vote. Day 1 scum here people. 

 

 

This has already been addressed, but yeah don't like this post. Screams that she is trying to paint her vote as a "joke" vote.

 

Where's Des to come declare that Cloud and Leelou are both scum and this is a gambit?

 

Why bring me up out of nowhere?

 

Vote: Cloud

 

Too jokey this time.  Making up for last game.  Gotcha x2.

 

Don't like this vote. Gonna call Verbal Goldilocks from now on, cause apparently he wants Cloud to be just the right amount of serious

 

 

Dat fake distance.

Anybody wanna hammer?

 

HUGE scum points for urging a speedlynch day 1, before we've had a chance to get much info. Darthe also cheerleads Cloud's train the hardest out of anyone, and supplies his normal egocentric crap about "catching one" already. How'd that work out for you, Darthe?
 

Ginormous fos.

 

unvote vote Cloud

 

Lame bandwagon vote, no reasoning given. There's something else to follow up on later too.

 

Half the game is either not posting or posting very sparingly.
Granted some of you are in very different timezones.
If this game doesn't see some significant movement by tomorrow morning (my time) a deadline will be set and it will be very short.
Think between 6 and 36 hours short depending on how bored I am. So it is in your best interests to continue talking if not lynching.

 

 

6 hours sounds awesome.

 

 

 

Lol totally work a 45 hour week and am applying to grad school :p. I make tike for the things I care about.

I was talking to Nol.

NOT EVERYTHING IS ABOUT YOU!!!

 

 

Really don't like how Nolder even mentions that he wants more active gameplay, and right after Darthe and Ishy continue acting all jokey and spammy. Cause yeah, THAT will get people to start playing seriously and be active.

 

/sarcasm

 

hmmmm...... 

 

vote cloud

 

not getting a good feel from him

 

 

 

She's been fake scumhunting.

 

fake scumhunting?

 

to be fair, that is what we are all doing....

 

 

 

unvote

vote Leelou

 

 

why vote me for such a transparently obvious fake-buddy? if I was a mafia legitimately trying to buddy I would deserve being lynched for that "attempt" hahaha

 

A series of terribad posts from Hoof. First, a bandwagon vote onto the highest train, with slapshod "reasoning" slapped onto it. Then, an attempt to keep the jokey atmosphere going, and self-admission that he is doing fake scumhunting. Last, uses the whole "OMG AS IF I'D BE THAT OBVIOUS LOLOLOL!!!" line to try and defend himself, just unbelievably poor defense.

 

Gargantuan fos.

 

not at all. I was merely musing that it is suspicious that you would OMGUS me for "buddying" when it was clearly not a serious attempt to do so. 

are you trying to deflect from Cloud, perhaps? protect your scum buddy that you perhaps arranged this whole banter with?

 

hmmmmm.... perhaps

 

Don't like that he continues to downplay his buddying, but I don't like even more that he links Leelou and Cloud. Hoof and Leelou/Golden teammates maybe? That way once Cloud flipped town, Hoof could pull the ol "Oh, guess Leelou wasn't scum along with Cloud after all..."

 

 

 

We need a deadline.

 

Scum Verbal asking for an early deadline is scum. You did the same thing in Darthe's METAL game 

 

 

Eventually you'll learn that people can break & manipulate meta.  That's why you shouldn't scumhunt with it.  Better come correct, or not at all.

 

 

I still don't like this post. No one else commented on it, so again:

 

Verbal, you acknowledge Cloud's description of your meta here, and pretty much confirm it cause you say people can break and manipulate meta (implying that you are trying to manipulate your meta this game, scummy on its own). You THEN tell him to "come correct", even tho you don't contest his description of your meta.

 

What gives, bro?

 

Still feel good about the Cloud lynch.

 

His 'fake' QT post was just terribad.

 

Standby for the inevitable 'it was a joke' statement.

 

Of COURSE you don't like his fake QT post, the one where he acted like you were his teammate. Don't like being singled out, eh AJ?

 

Votecount
Cloud - Verbal, Andrej (2)
Blackhoof - Cloud(1)
Verbal - Des (1)
Pralaya - Goldeneyes (1)
No Lynch - Darthe (1)
 
Not voting: Pralaya, BFG, Ishy, Wombat, Blackhoof
 
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

Vote: Blackhoof

 

 

We assume the standard curve amd scale here Womby.

cloud

Here we go cloud train! Here we go! *clap* *clap*

 

 

Blackhoof lynch has no basis. Look at the votes if you need evidence of that.

Get on cloud.

 

Right after Nol's VC, Wombat votes Hoof (a protown move in many ways if you ask me). Darthe has been nudging Cloud's train for quite some time by this point, yet waits till right when Wombat evens up the trains to vote Cloud, then continues to cheerlead his lynch.

 

Crazy obvious, dude.

 

Blackhoof, Darthe, Golden, Verbal, and AJ. You'll find your scum within that group. Just realized that's most of the people that voted Cloud, but eh I stand by those reads. Even before Nol set his ridiculously short deadline a couple of these peeps looked like they were trying to get Cloud speedlynched, which is just extremely antitown on Day 1.

[hazelkrs1]

As usual, you didn't bother to show up before the deadline Pral. Enough said.

 

I didn't vote for either of the trains because there was little to no real information on them imo and I'd rather have people here who contribute than someone who drops in every couple days, makes 3-4 posts and then disappears again. Weaksauce explanation.

 

Be glad I showed up. Regardless of whether or not there is a random modkill without a majority at deadline, it is almost ALWAYS better to secure a lynch than to not. Even mislynches can benefit town, if you know how to read the cards right. Voting for outliers close to the deadline is antitown, period.

 

Also, gunning for inactives day 1 isn't that smart either in general.

 

I can kinda understand being bitter bout Pray's recent inactivity tho, I agree about that.

 

 

Frankly speaking, I am bored of being vanilla town in all my games. It is not anyone's fault, just a statistical thing, however improbable it is.. I don't remember ever being a town PR other than that bus driver role or unless I had replaced somebody. It gets monotonous after a while, unless there is some variety.

 

Really sad that you got this mentality man. Being a vanilla is freaking awesome. You get to focus solely on scumhunting, and don't have to worry about protecting a PR or staying hidden, or causing confusion with a misplaced NA. An active vanilla that actively pursues leads and looks for scum, and exerts pressure and comments on trains, etc. can be worth more than multiple PR's in some games.

 

Lemme ask you this, which of these people is more effective at helping their team win?

 

1. A Vanilla who actively scumhunts, and helps to catch one scum

2. A Cop who views a GF N1, a Miller N2, and reveals too early and dies for it

 

?

 

 

 

Just finished re-skimming 10 pages of people posting self-congratulatory high fives at how witty smart they believe they are. Despite all of these useful posts, I will

vote Pralaya for the following reasons:

1. Inactivity is at best an anti-town move
2. Pral was almost just almost removed from the game by the mod for inactivity 
3. Pral failed to show up in Day 1 of the last game I played in. Town lynched his lover and we went down 2 players right off the bat. He could have at least shown up and voted for someone else or defended in that game but he didn't. He's following the same pattern of inactivity here and I'm not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

for all the stuff we had and were discussing this strikes me as odd, on re-read. there were suspicions on me and Cloud, but he ignores all that and votes Pral for a nulltell reason, admitting that it is "at best anti-town". I'm not saying that he should have bandwagoned, but weighing in on the discussion would have been good.

 

 

Weighing in on the discussion... what discussion? It was a criminally short day 1, and it was bereft of just about anything resembling scumhunting. We ended up having to speedlynch Cloud essentially for being jokey at the beginning of the day. What kind of comments were you looking for?

 

This looks like one of those ""fake scumhunting" posts you were talking about

[Blackhoof]

It means I was not present to make observations at the time the comments were made. I didn't agree with the train on Cloud and frankly, I didn't really understand the one on you all that much. Maybe there are some "tells" I was supposed to pick up on that would lead me to agree you two were scum, but I didn't. I literally had no reads.

The rules states that there would be no modkill if we didn't vote for someone and I just joined today. Since we had already lost one town I thought it more prudent to just let night come rather than jump on a train for the heck of it and risk a mislynch. And I wasn't wrong, I didn't vote Cloud and he turned out to be town. Though the fact that Ishy was annoyed I wouldn't jump on a train gives me my first scummy read.

 

I realize BFG didn't vote either, but I'm still salty with Pral over his inactivity in our last game. If getting mad at me prompts his activity in this one and my vote woke him up, good. If he remains active tomorrow, then I won't vote for him on that basis. 

 

that is fair i guess, but as Des pointed out, any lynch is better than a no-lynch on day 1. also the bold stands out. hindsight is 20/20, after all. this sounds like distancing and claiming credibility for not voting a townie.

[Blackhoof]

Alright here's what I got. Surprisingly, I think I found some really good leads. Without further ado...

 

hmmmm...... 

 

vote cloud

 

not getting a good feel from him

 

 

 

She's been fake scumhunting.

 

fake scumhunting?

 

to be fair, that is what we are all doing....

 

 

 

unvote

vote Leelou

 

 

why vote me for such a transparently obvious fake-buddy? if I was a mafia legitimately trying to buddy I would deserve being lynched for that "attempt" hahaha

 

A series of terribad posts from Hoof. First, a bandwagon vote onto the highest train, with slapshod "reasoning" slapped onto it. Then, an attempt to keep the jokey atmosphere going, and self-admission that he is doing fake scumhunting. Last, uses the whole "OMG AS IF I'D BE THAT OBVIOUS LOLOLOL!!!" line to try and defend himself, just unbelievably poor defense.

 

Gargantuan fos.

 

not at all. I was merely musing that it is suspicious that you would OMGUS me for "buddying" when it was clearly not a serious attempt to do so. 

are you trying to deflect from Cloud, perhaps? protect your scum buddy that you perhaps arranged this whole banter with?

 

hmmmmm.... perhaps

 

Don't like that he continues to downplay his buddying, but I don't like even more that he links Leelou and Cloud. Hoof and Leelou/Golden teammates maybe? That way once Cloud flipped town, Hoof could pull the ol "Oh, guess Leelou wasn't scum along with Cloud after all..."

 

 

 

 

It's not my fault- I just suck at this game

 

oooh I should do that next time, that is a good ploy

 

 

Edit:- make Des happy

[Blackhoof]

Was saying that suspicious?

[hazelkrs1]

I just LOVE it when peeps quote a big old wot of mine just to respond to one bit! Makes it REALLY easy to see what they're responding to!

 

[Blackhoof]

Better?

[Pralaya]

 

Really sad that you got this mentality man. Being a vanilla is freaking awesome. You get to focus solely on scumhunting, and don't have to worry about protecting a PR or staying hidden, or causing confusion with a misplaced NA. An active vanilla that actively pursues leads and looks for scum, and exerts pressure and comments on trains, etc. can be worth more than multiple PR's in some games.

 

Lemme ask you this, which of these people is more effective at helping their team win?

 

1. A Vanilla who actively scumhunts, and helps to catch one scum

2. A Cop who views a GF N1, a Miller N2, and reveals too early and dies for it

 

?

 

You misunderstood. I am not saying that vanilla is bad, I am saying that being vanilla in EVERY FREAKING GAME gets monotonous. Just need a variety.

[BFG]

I'm on everything eventually.

 

Also, hi.

 

Hi :)

 

 

You misunderstood. I am not saying that vanilla is bad, I am saying that being vanilla in EVERY FREAKING GAME gets monotonous. Just need a variety.

 

 

You mean like being lovers?

 

It means I was not present to make observations at the time the comments were made. I didn't agree with the train on Cloud and frankly, I didn't really understand the one on you all that much. Maybe there are some "tells" I was supposed to pick up on that would lead me to agree you two were scum, but I didn't. I literally had no reads.

The rules states that there would be no modkill if we didn't vote for someone and I just joined today. Since we had already lost one town I thought it more prudent to just let night come rather than jump on a train for the heck of it and risk a mislynch. And I wasn't wrong, I didn't vote Cloud and he turned out to be town. Though the fact that Ishy was annoyed I wouldn't jump on a train gives me my first scummy read.

 

I realize BFG didn't vote either, but I'm still salty with Pral over his inactivity in our last game. If getting mad at me prompts his activity in this one and my vote woke him up, good. If he remains active tomorrow, then I won't vote for him on that basis. 

 

BFG is asleep at 2 in the morning when the deadline was set (most of the time) and can't always log onto DM at work (especially when not aware of any deadline).

[Darthe]

I do not have a power role.

[Verbal32]

 

 

 

We need a deadline.

Scum Verbal asking for an early deadline is scum. You did the same thing in Darthe's METAL game

Eventually you'll learn that people can break & manipulate meta. That's why you shouldn't scumhunt with it. Better come correct, or not at all.

Uh... If youre saying youre abusing your meta, then how is Cloud not coming "correct"? You didn't correct him about your meta, you accepted the meta read as spot on but dismissed it.

 

Vote Verbal

 

 

You didn't understand my meaning.  That's ok, it happens to some people.  Re-read it again, and assume that I'm town when I wrote it.  Enjoy.  ;-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blackhoof is town.

 

Cloud/Leelou/AJ legitomately contains at least 1 scum.

 

Your D1 reads have a P-value of 0.8

 

 

Vote Leroy.

 

Competing trains and whatnot.

 

Why not Cloud or Hoof?

 

 

Doofus, if you really knew what a P-value was, you'd know that 0.8 is actually good and well above what would otherwise cause a rejection.

 

Protip: we know you're smart....but you're not alone, punchy.  See my above advice to CloudyMcClouderson.

 

 

Wrong.  It all depends on what the null hypothesis is.  And usually, the null is chosen as the unremarkable result.  So if my null hypothesis is that Darthe could do just as well picking names out of a hat, then 0.8 isn't very good.

 

 

Hey Verb, .8 means that Womby thinks I am pretty accurate.

 

Am I being buddied?  Flattery is a weakness and I need the help of a champion.

 

 

 

 

Also, watching Cloud try to step away from his own statements should be its own game.

 

No, all it means is that I can't conclude that you are accurate.

 

 

 

 

Doofus, if you really knew what a P-value was, you'd know that 0.8 is actually good and well above what would otherwise cause a rejection.

 

Protip: we know you're smart....but you're not alone, punchy.  See my above advice to CloudyMcClouderson.

 

 

First, you need to ask if it is a one-tailed or a two-tailed test.

 

A p-value of 0.8 for a two-tailed is meh ;)

 

 

Test type is chosen before those calculations iirc.

 

 

 

At 5am?? Seriously?

3am if I did my math right.

 

edit: I'd be happy to shorten it if you want.

 

 

<3

 

 

0.8 is good - you really should research before using fancy terms and stats.

[Darthe]

Lol Des is throwing seven kinds of smoke and Verb/Wombat are fighting over the stats of how glorious I am.

 

This game rules. More 6 hour deadlines plz?

[Blackhoof]

Darthe is confusing me a bit.

[Verbal32]

Thinking more on Des' little case/vote on me......wow.  He missed the point so completely, that I have to think it was intentional.  I just re-read it myself, and damn.....it is obvious what I meant.  Just a terribad case & vote by Des.  Reaching scum.

[Darthe]

Bro look at what he said about each of us. All of it is tied together in a way that would make a schizophrenic blush.

[Blackhoof]

I thought his case on me was quite good, actually.

 

Wrong, but a good case nonetheless. I would probably vote me if I wasn't me.

[GoldeneyesND]

Lol Des is throwing seven kinds of smoke and Verb/Wombat are fighting over the stats of how glorious I am.

 

This game rules. More 6 hour deadlines plz?

 

For some reason anytime I try and picture Des I just get an image of a spider monkey flinging feces arbitrarily, shrieking and pointing. He's quite frenetic.

 

P values? Really? Just measure your beakers already and see who wins the title of king nerd already.

[Darthe]

Lol I hope that becomes Des' s siggy.

 

Statistics> everything else btw. I will get defensive

[WWWwombat]

0.8 sucks.  0.08 is decent.  Digits bro.

 

But if I were going to really continually evaluate Darthe, I should use a Bayesian method so this is all moot.

[John E. Kelley]

Wtf is this nerd shit?

[WWWwombat]

Here, I'll put it in a context you can understand, Ishy.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset

 

 

You have statistics to thank every time you drink that nice stout.

[Nolder]

A godless night it was indeed. A storm rolled in, the worst the island had ever seen. The wind howled and whistled through the trees and houses shook with the raw force of nature. But the storm eventually spent itself and went off into the sea as they tend to do. When the villagers of Catan woke and began to file out of their houses they saw a body in the mud. His neck was broken and there were scratches all over his face presumably from where a nearby branch had snapped in the wind and hit him. They wiped the mud off his face and were horrified to see that Darthe was indeed dead. Resolute the villagers knew it was no accident, someone had murdered Darthe and they must pay.

 

Darthe, Catan Villager, has been killed.

 

It is now Day.

[WWWwombat]

Vote: Verbal

[Darthe]

And alive in 1 game. Fml.

 

Go town!

[Nolder]

Votecount

Verbal - Wombat (1)

 

Not voting: Andrej, Blackhoof, Des, Goldeneyes, Pralaya, Verbal, BFG, Ishy

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

 

Deadline: Friday 8PM PST