THE METAL - End: Dinner for Wolves

[Andrej]

Tina do you have any other reads?

 

You're at L-1. If you are Town now would be a good time to put them out there to be looked back on later.

[Pralaya]

 

You want to talk about probabilities? Assuming AJ is town, here are the outcomes of AJ trying to lie and draw a NK

 

Chance of Seer dying reduces from 1/9 = 11.1% to 0%

(which assumes that the real seer does not CC - a very big and risky assumption. There was a high probability that the real Seer would atleast raise some objection, which actually changes the 0% figure to somewhere above 50%))

 

Chance of mafia dying reduces from 3/9 = 33.3% to 0%

Chance of town dying increases from 6/9 = 66.7% to 100%

 

There is nothing positive about any of the above.It was anti-town any way you see it. 

 

The "draw the NK" argument would work in games where there are only two groups - mafia and town (with some scattered 3rd party). Trying to argue the same logic in this game with 3 groups is totally absurd.  It looks more and more like you are trying to protect AJ from what is an obvious lynch.

 

Please explain how the logic wouldn't work because there are 3 teams this game. I don't see your point there. As you have pointed out already, the chances of Town dying were already higher from the beginning. It could be argued either way about my intent for false-claim, but as it was pointed out already I was the 2nd largest train at the end of D1 and figured I'd likely be going up for the lynch today. Plus I was drinking whiskey and felt a little ballsy It backfired, but shit happens.

 

To the bolded: Is this the logic you used for picking your target last night? Mish was really the only one to say outright that she didn't believe me which narrowed it down to either me or her.

 

 

 

If there are only two groups, you would know that mafia is going to target town. It could be a PR or a vanilla, but taking out the effects of doc, there is a huge chance that a town is going to die. In that case, drawing out that town kill on a vanilla is effective.

 

In case of games with three groups, there is a decent chance that wolf can target mafia, in addition to town. As I mentioned in the post that you quoted, you basically reduced the chances of mafia getting hit to 0. Forget about numbers, but it is a simple logical point that town would never try to draw the NK away from mafia, especially on day 1 when the reads are wide open.

 

As I said in an earlier post, as a wolf, one can always wiggle out claiming a stupid-town move. I see that exact thing happen here.

[Pralaya]

Cool. So maybe *you* can show me how AJ was responsible? Pral hasn't yet. And I still think you aren't giving Mish enough credit.

 

You can read my posts to verbal and des where I have explained it all. All you need is a bit of skimming to see it. Forget about "responsibility", I am saying that AJ is not town at all.

[Pralaya]

Real quick:

 

1. Mish - Town Seer Killed N1

2. Andrej

3. Yates - #

4. Cloud - Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1

5. Len - Leaning scum

6. Tina - Scum read

7. Laya - Leaning scum

8. BFG* - Town read

9. Des - #

10. Kaylee - Leaning Town

11. Hally - Null. Replace/Prod?

12. Verb - #

 

 

Wonderful. So everyone in you scum list are the ones who either voted you or have you in their scum radar. Talk about blatant OMGUS reads.

[Andrej]

Where did I say that I made a stupid town move? I haven't tried to wiggle away from anything Pral so I don't know why you're continuing to push that point like it's valid.

 

Yes I fake-claimed. Yes the Seer was killed likely because of the way Mish reacted with her disbelief. Like I said, it happens. Was it risky? Absolutely, but I accepted those risks in consideration that I felt I would likely be on the chopping block again today and a Townie was more likely to get killed anyway. On the other hand, if I had been successful and died last night what would you have had to say about the play then? You're also leaving out some important factors such as my motivations if I happened to be a wolf as you suspect. In order for them to win they must both kill the mafia team and also gain majority. By outing myself just to kill the Seer would essentially guarantee that my team had no chance of winning. Would I also fake claim as mafia?

 

While you're at it, why don't you give us a list of your current reads since you feel the need to call mine out?

[Niniel]

Tina do you have any other reads?

 

You're at L-1. If you are Town now would be a good time to put them out there to be looked back on later.

 

I see that you are eager to get rid of me. I have given my thoughts about you, Des and Yates. 

 

Where did I say that I made a stupid town move? I haven't tried to wiggle away from anything Pral so I don't know why you're continuing to push that point like it's valid.

 

Yes I fake-claimed. Yes the Seer was killed likely because of the way Mish reacted with her disbelief. Like I said, it happens. Was it risky? Absolutely, but I accepted those risks in consideration that I felt I would likely be on the chopping block again today and a Townie was more likely to get killed anyway. On the other hand, if I had been successful and died last night what would you have had to say about the play then? You're also leaving out some important factors such as my motivations if I happened to be a wolf as you suspect. In order for them to win they must both kill the mafia team and also gain majority. By outing myself just to kill the Seer would essentially guarantee that my team had no chance of winning. Would I also fake claim as mafia?

 

While you're at it, why don't you give us a list of your current reads since you feel the need to call mine out?

 

So you had thought of the risk of outing our seer before you claimed it but thought it was a risk worth taking anyway? 

 

 

Darthe - can we have a vc and deadline, please. 

[Verbal32]

 

 

Need to hug bf before he goes to sleep. :)

 

So THAT'S what you call it.  Gotcha.  ;-)

 

hehe

 

 

Of course this is what you choose to comment on. When will you start contributing. So far the only thing you have said is that you think AJ is town. 

 

 

Perhaps you should read back over the last few pages.  I've been an active contributor on D2.  Give up on the "when will you start contributing" crap.  It was fine on N1, but now it just makes you look like you're trying to toss as much fuel into the fire before you get lynched.

[Pralaya]

Where did I say that I made a stupid town move? I haven't tried to wiggle away from anything Pral so I don't know why you're continuing to push that point like it's valid.

 

Yes I fake-claimed. Yes the Seer was killed likely because of the way Mish reacted with her disbelief. Like I said, it happens. Was it risky? Absolutely, but I accepted those risks in consideration that I felt I would likely be on the chopping block again today and a Townie was more likely to get killed anyway. On the other hand, if I had been successful and died last night what would you have had to say about the play then? You're also leaving out some important factors such as my motivations if I happened to be a wolf as you suspect. In order for them to win they must both kill the mafia team and also gain majority. By outing myself just to kill the Seer would essentially guarantee that my team had no chance of winning. Would I also fake claim as mafia?

 

While you're at it, why don't you give us a list of your current reads since you feel the need to call mine out?

 

All these has already been addressed. Don't know why you are just bringing it back again. Now you are blaming some part of your vote on "whiskey".

 

As said before, fake-claiming as a town had very little advantage. It was not just risky but it had a very low chance to work. It is not something a town would do. So, your whole point of what would happen if you were killed would not arise at all. 

 

The wolf point has also be addressed. Look into this post ... http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-2-edgar-allen-poe/page-21?do=findComment&comment=3064230

 

"There is at least something to gain as a wolf (if not a lot) - killing the seer and protecting the surviving mate. Also, you can try to wiggle out of the lynch by claiming it as a stupid-town move."

[Verbal32]

 

Where did I say that I made a stupid town move? I haven't tried to wiggle away from anything Pral so I don't know why you're continuing to push that point like it's valid.

 

Yes I fake-claimed. Yes the Seer was killed likely because of the way Mish reacted with her disbelief. Like I said, it happens. Was it risky? Absolutely, but I accepted those risks in consideration that I felt I would likely be on the chopping block again today and a Townie was more likely to get killed anyway. On the other hand, if I had been successful and died last night what would you have had to say about the play then? You're also leaving out some important factors such as my motivations if I happened to be a wolf as you suspect. In order for them to win they must both kill the mafia team and also gain majority. By outing myself just to kill the Seer would essentially guarantee that my team had no chance of winning. Would I also fake claim as mafia?

 

While you're at it, why don't you give us a list of your current reads since you feel the need to call mine out?

 

All these has already been addressed. Don't know why you are just bringing it back again. Now you are blaming some part of your vote on "whiskey".

 

As said before, fake-claiming as a town had very little advantage. It was not just risky but it had a very low chance to work. It is not something a town would do. So, your whole point of what would happen if you were killed would not arise at all. 

 

The wolf point has also be addressed. Look into this post ... http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-2-edgar-allen-poe/page-21?do=findComment&comment=3064230

 

"There is at least something to gain as a wolf (if not a lot) - killing the seer and protecting the surviving mate. Also, you can try to wiggle out of the lynch by claiming it as a stupid-town move."

 

 

wut?

[Hallia]

I derped.  I thought I'd replaced out of all of my games.  I had a personal issue that has now been resolved, so I'll catch up!

[Darthe]

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (5/6): AJ, Kay, Des, Len, Yates

AJ (1/6): Laya

Yates (1/7): Tina

 

Not Voting (4/10):

Tina, BFG, Hally, Verb

[Yates]

What gives you a wolf read on Tina?

I think Des and Tina are on the same team. With this much heat on Tina, I think Des had to bus. I've already pointed out this relationship earlier. I've also pointed out the exact post where Tina drops her "scum read" on Mish just before Mish is NKed.

 

Also, your time stamps don't match up. Des listed me as a scum read for him after Cloud's lynch.

Yup. Just pointing out that he claimed to have a wolf read but then started voting for mafia reads. Ties in to my belief that he is a wolf with Tina. He also never actually came out and said he thinks you are Town [that I saw]. That's why I pointed it out and asked him to clarify with that last quote in my post.

[BFG]

Misheru Sedai - Town Seer has been nightkilled.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EicJTFcy9gQ

 

 

It is now Day 2.  You have 72 hours.

 

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

about a gay and a half left

[Niniel]

 

 

 

Need to hug bf before he goes to sleep. :)

 

So THAT'S what you call it.  Gotcha.  ;-)

 

hehe

 

 

Of course this is what you choose to comment on. When will you start contributing. So far the only thing you have said is that you think AJ is town. 

 

 

Perhaps you should read back over the last few pages.  I've been an active contributor on D2.  Give up on the "when will you start contributing" crap.  It was fine on N1, but now it just makes you look like you're trying to toss as much fuel into the fire before you get lynched.

 

 

Read the last line again. I went back and checked your posts and the only thing you have done is arguing  with Lenlo and Pralaya if AJ is town or not. Where are you going with it? Do you want to vote one of them? What do you think about the rest of the players. Like Des and Yates?

[Niniel]

 

Misheru Sedai - Town Seer has been nightkilled.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EicJTFcy9gQ

 

 

It is now Day 2.  You have 72 hours.

 

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

about a gay and a half left

 

 

[Verbal32]

 

Misheru Sedai - Town Seer has been nightkilled.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EicJTFcy9gQ

 

 

It is now Day 2.  You have 72 hours.

 

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

about a gay and a half left

 

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Need to hug bf before he goes to sleep. :)

 

So THAT'S what you call it.  Gotcha.  ;-)

 

hehe

 

 

Of course this is what you choose to comment on. When will you start contributing. So far the only thing you have said is that you think AJ is town. 

 

 

Perhaps you should read back over the last few pages.  I've been an active contributor on D2.  Give up on the "when will you start contributing" crap.  It was fine on N1, but now it just makes you look like you're trying to toss as much fuel into the fire before you get lynched.

 

 

Read the last line again. I went back and checked your posts and the only thing you have done is arguing  with Lenlo and Pralaya if AJ is town or not. Where are you going with it? Do you want to vote one of them? What do you think about the rest of the players. Like Des and Yates?

 

 

AJ's play has been the #1 item of discussion thus far in the game.  You're nitpicking to say I'm not contributing when I'm actively discussing this big issue with multiple people, and asking questions to the folks I'm suspicious of (which should be obvious).  Nice try.

 

As for Des and Yates - I've agreed with things (and quoted it) both have said, probably more so with Yates.  Yates sees you and Des on the same team - I don't have a stance on that.  My focus has been Lenlo and Pralaya and the issues I have with them re: AJ's play.

[Verbal32]

As for YOU, Tina, I'm not sure.  To meta for a sec, when you're town you usually tunnel me for a bit each game.  You're not really doing that too much here, as you've mentioned me a few times, but nothing overt.  TBH, I don't have a solid read on you.

[BFG]

Posting intent to hammer.

 

Summary of the most recent posts...  Cases Des with a few points.  Then goes on to case Yates and eventually votes for him.  But the case (unless I've missed something amounts to

 

Yates saying

 

 

If AJ is the real Seer?  The best outcome from tonight is he gets protected thus there's no kill and he has a guilty for us in the morning. 

 

 

 

Since her stated case is based on that single sentence ignoring the first 'If AJ is the real Seer' I find it really weird that she votes Yates instead of someone else. 

 

 

 

Let´s see if I can make a Des case without quoting him. His long wots is hard to go through when quoted. 

 

#195 - Des votes Cloud. Do you remember that one of his reasons for voting me is that I parked my vote on AJ all day yesterday? Well, Des never left Cloud yesterday so I guess he is guilty of the same thing that he accuse me of. 

 

In this post he questions BFG, who wondered why Kaylee and Hallia hadn´t commented on the AJ/Pral/Cloud/Tina thing. He says already there that it could be a way to cover for Cloud. I never thought this to be scummy, rather the opposite. BFG hasn´t played before and it´s good to be able to not just focus on the visable, but what is not there. 

 

#244 Des says that Cloud´s trap wasn´t a trap and that Cloud just unvoted AJ to look good. He critizise BGF again for her focus on Kaylee and Hallia. He says that Yates is setting up future lynches by saying that he can vote both AJ and Cloud. Others have already commented on this - to name several suspects is not the same as setting up future lynches. 

 

#248 Here he likes my Mish case. He says that he will think about if it´s better than the Cloud case or not. 

 

#252 He makes his own Mish case but basically just agrees with me.

 

#336 This is where I says that we need to take a look at AJ, Verb, Yates and Des. More and more people starts to suspect me before and after this.

 

# 338 Here Des changes his mind. Now he defends Mish and suspect me (who he previously agreed with). Here is why + my answers:

1. I was evasive about my AJ case. (I just thought Mish was lazy who asked me to restate it.)

2. I press too much on the fact that Mish wanted me to hammer Cloud a day before deadline. (I really thought that was scummy, even when realising that there are no doc in the game. I think I brought it up twice though so I hardly made that big of a thing about it.)

3. I try to lead town with a week statement. (Yeh, it was a week statement, I didn´t made myself clear. But how would that be leading town?)

 

He also says that AJ made a slip (knew he would not get killed). And he says that Kaylee caught Yates with the ISO thing. 

 

(#341 He believes AJ is werewolf and me and Yates are mafia.)

 

#395 He votes me and backs up AJ´s behaviour during the night. He even says that he helped AJ "play it up". I would say that that make him also part responsible for Mish´s death. 

 

#398 He is against Lenlo´s blind faith in a cc and say that people who cc late in the game could be scum. He is starting to focus more and more on Lenlo although he is voting me. (Again, what he accused for doing yesterday with AJ and Mish.)

 

 

My very short case on Yates will follow in a short while. Need to hug bf before he goes to sleep. :)

 

 

Thanks for reminding me about Lenlo´s weird voting yesterday, BFG. I think it was Mish who pointed it out at first. Why vote the longest train and then be prepared to move his vote, and not the other way around. 

 

 

I was looking at Verbal and Yates since they also parked on Cloud yesterday without adding much. (Yates did vote AJ for a while before he switched to Cloud.) Verbal is just quiet, which is what he is often on day 1. I´m a little worried that he was that quiet to not draw a seer view but I got nothing on him. 

 

It´s interesting that AJ protected Yates as he did when Kaylee brought up the ISO thing. 

 

But this quote is the most interesting I have found about Yates.

 

 

 

We dont lynch him until we have a CC or the possible real seer turns up dead.

Stop it.

 

Stop it.

 

Stop it.

 

If it's a BS claim, you do NOT counter if you are the Seer.  Think about it for longer than 1 nanosecond.  If you are the real Seer, you can't be killed.  Period.  Killing the real Seer would expose guaranteed scum.  The only way the real Seer counters is when they get a guilty.  2 for 1 is a good acceptable trade.  1 for 1 is not so good.

 

If AJ is the real Seer?  The best outcome from tonight is he gets protected thus there's no kill and he has a guilty for us in the morning. 

 

 

He forgot (like me and Hally) that there is no doc in the game. To me this looks like he is trying to make the doc protect AJ. If Yates and AJ are on the wolf team then they managed to out Mish and try to protect AJ. Of course, there is no doc, so it didn´t work that way. What do the rest of you think about this?

 

 

I´ll add Lenlo to my list so current suspects are Des, Yates, AJ and Lenlo. I´m not sure who I want to vote for right now. I will read what you have posted in the morning and see if anyone agree with anything I´ve had to say. 

 

 

 

 

 

Need to hug bf before he goes to sleep. :)

 

So THAT'S what you call it.  Gotcha.  ;-)

 

hehe

 

 

Of course this is what you choose to comment on. When will you start contributing. So far the only thing you have said is that you think AJ is town. 

 

 

To me this looks like he is trying to make the doc protect AJ.

Well, that's probably because you aren't reading. Or you are pretending you aren't reading.

 

protected by who? there's no doctor - or do you mean protected by the confusion about the claim?

Crap. Second time today. I keep forgetting which game Hally claimed X-Night doc in.

 

 

 

Aren´t reading? Read that quote again. You ask the doc to protect AJ. Yes, there is no doc, you forgot that. But, it´s still true that you asked doc to protect him. 

 

So Tina has had time to spread her wifom.

Vote: Tina

 

What wifom. You are anti-town or just lazy. Just like yesterday.

 

Vote Yates

 

Could also vote Des. 

 

 

 

 

Tina do you have any other reads?

 

You're at L-1. If you are Town now would be a good time to put them out there to be looked back on later.

 

I see that you are eager to get rid of me. I have given my thoughts about you, Des and Yates. 

 

Where did I say that I made a stupid town move? I haven't tried to wiggle away from anything Pral so I don't know why you're continuing to push that point like it's valid.

 

Yes I fake-claimed. Yes the Seer was killed likely because of the way Mish reacted with her disbelief. Like I said, it happens. Was it risky? Absolutely, but I accepted those risks in consideration that I felt I would likely be on the chopping block again today and a Townie was more likely to get killed anyway. On the other hand, if I had been successful and died last night what would you have had to say about the play then? You're also leaving out some important factors such as my motivations if I happened to be a wolf as you suspect. In order for them to win they must both kill the mafia team and also gain majority. By outing myself just to kill the Seer would essentially guarantee that my team had no chance of winning. Would I also fake claim as mafia?

 

While you're at it, why don't you give us a list of your current reads since you feel the need to call mine out?

 

So you had thought of the risk of outing our seer before you claimed it but thought it was a risk worth taking anyway? 

 

 

Darthe - can we have a vc and deadline, please. 

 

 

Blue above is a good point.

 

 

 

Misheru Sedai - Town Seer has been nightkilled.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EicJTFcy9gQ

 

 

It is now Day 2.  You have 72 hours.

 

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

about a gay and a half left

 

 

 

  wish there was a facepalm icon but I'm on my way out so can't look for one now.

 

 

 

Would also love to hear what Hallia has to say when she's caught up (welcome back), and Lenlo as I don't understand either of their votes at the moment.

 

 

[Pralaya]

wut?

 

Please explain how the logic wouldn't work because there are 3 teams this game. I don't see your point there. As you have pointed out already, the chances of Town dying were already higher from the beginning. It could be argued either way about my intent for false-claim, but as it was pointed out already I was the 2nd largest train at the end of D1 and figured I'd likely be going up for the lynch today. Plus I was drinking whiskey and felt a little ballsy It backfired, but shit happens.

 

To the bolded: Is this the logic you used for picking your target last night? Mish was really the only one to say outright that she didn't believe me which narrowed it down to either me or her.

[Niniel]

As for YOU, Tina, I'm not sure.  To meta for a sec, when you're town you usually tunnel me for a bit each game.  You're not really doing that too much here, as you've mentioned me a few times, but nothing overt.  TBH, I don't have a solid read on you.

 

Yeh, I know. I try not to do it this game. I can´t say I have a read on you. 

[BFG]

*Hallia & Lenlo that's the votes on Day 1.

 

and just cos duh

 

[Andrej]

 

wut?

 

Please explain how the logic wouldn't work because there are 3 teams this game. I don't see your point there. As you have pointed out already, the chances of Town dying were already higher from the beginning. It could be argued either way about my intent for false-claim, but as it was pointed out already I was the 2nd largest train at the end of D1 and figured I'd likely be going up for the lynch today. Plus I was drinking whiskey and felt a little ballsy It backfired, but shit happens.

 

To the bolded: Is this the logic you used for picking your target last night? Mish was really the only one to say outright that she didn't believe me which narrowed it down to either me or her.

 

 

You're taking a lot of what I said out of a context. The whiskey thing was more a joke than anything... you trying to bring it up like it's something solid is just: blegh.

 

You're still not offering any reads on other players. You can just continue tunneling me on this point but I think inevitably it's going to get you lynched. What do you think of the players who find the play a Town read? What do you think about Tina who is at L-1 and you have avoided commenting/voting on today?

[Pralaya]

Well, you have the strongest scum read and hence my vote on you. 

 

From her responses, Tina is looking like town. Des is leaning scum because this is the second time he has tried to distract from a lynch. Kaylee and Verbal seem town.

Slight scumtell on Yates and Lenlo. Null read on BFG and Hally.

[Niniel]

It went a bit quiet in here. I´m afraid that will lead to a lynch on me since I´m the one closest to getting lynched. 

[Niniel]

Well, you have the strongest scum read and hence my vote on you. 

 

From her responses, Tina is looking like town. Des is leaning scum because this is the second time he has tried to distract from a lynch. Kaylee and Verbal seem town.

Slight scumtell on Yates and Lenlo. Null read on BFG and Hally.

 

Ninja´d. It seems like we are sharing the same thoughts.