how the Senchean beat the Aial (avienda vision) ???

[balefired-ed2]

Alright, a few things I want to talk about.

 

1. I think that a circle as an offensive weapon is being VASTLY overrated in this discussion. Egwene effectively uses a circle, but she uses it in a defensive manner. They were not fighting a battle, they were defending against a raid. By linking they were able to dissuade further attacks on their position, and were able to form basically a moving strong point against light attacks.

 

What the discussion is about, though, is open battle where both forces are going to be able to bring the majority of their strength to bear.

 

Some have compared the circle to a nuclear bomb, I disagree. In this comparison, a Randlander/Aiel circle is more like a tank, going up against Damane infantry.

 

Lets say the circle is one of 13 channelers vs. 13 damane/suldam pairs. The circle can land a MUCH larger blow than any one of the individual pairs, but in doing so it is at a major disadvantage in all aspects of maneuver and seizing initiative. The Seanchan would be able to run CIRCLES around the enemy, taking quick potshots at an enemy that would be hardpressed to defend, let alone try to land 13 decisive blows. This is basically the death of a thousand cuts.

 

2. The Seanchan, out of all the peoples we have a good amount of knowlege on, have overwhelmingly the finest military force on the planet. The reasons of which I will list now.

 

A. The most important reason, they have shown a mastery of logistics that no other culture can even come close to. They were able to cross HALF OF THE WORLD and conquer a sizable chunk of the continent. Read that past sentence again. Again. Rand cleansing saidin was awesome, but in no way, shape, or form was it nearly as impressive as the discipline and organization the Seanchan have shown in that magnificent achievement. Speculation, travelling is going to be negligible for Randlanders/Aiel trying to bridge this gap, as they do not have the level of organization and expertise the Seanchan do.

 

Why is it the most important? The Seanchan are going to be able to consistently bring to bear more assets in any endeavor. Troops are going to be better equipped, better fed, healthier, and thus more effective in war than any opposition.

 

B. They have the most sophisticated and adaptable military force. By all accounts, it seems that the Seanchan are the only culture that as a whole appreciate war in a scientific manner. They are not set in their ways like almost every other nation seemingly is. They see what mistakes they made and resolve to learn and adapt to better themselves.

 

In the books, we have seen them lose a few battles, most due to circumstances that were unforeseeable.

 

They were caught off guard first in TPOD by AM channeling, but seemed to be righting the ship, and eventually fought to a draw.

 

Ituralde was able to cause serious damage to the Seanchan, but was eventually defeated by Seanchan persistance, adaptability to his tactics, and greater resources.

 

Mat fought the Seanchan and was successful, but there were a few reasons why. First, and of the most consequence, the Seanchan were unable to know his true motive, which was escape rather than an insurrection or invasion. Second, he brought to bear weapons that were massive force multipliers in the new crossbow crank and explosive slings. Had this not been just a campaign to escape the territory, Mats odds were going to be VERY long, since the Seanchan decided to do what they do best when faced with a problem, bring massive, unopposable force to bear.

 

Essentially, a war between Randlanders/Aiel vs. Seanchan is a war of a few Lees, Rommels, and Hannibals against a mass of Grants, Zhukovs, and Scipios. A brilliant tactical mind with limited resources against a bunch of sound minds with massive resources in an all out war has throughout history led to the same outcome, over and over.

 

This leads in nicely to why the Seanchan think like they do. In the military they are run on a meritocracy, limited though it may be. The Aiel seem to as well, but we have no evidence of an ordered chain of command. The Randlanders, though, are militarily dominated by nobility. So while the Randlanders might be able to have someone with ability shine through every now and then, the Seanchan are able to consistently produce officers who, though maybe not brilliant, are intelligent and capable enough to respond to almost any threat.

 

C. With their current forces they are a match to any force on the sea or land, and they have absolute dominance of the air. With this air force they are able to conduct good surveillance and present threats that are extremely unique, though not uncounterable.

 

D. Militarized ogier. DAMN.

 

3. This next part is a bit of a rant. The Aiel are the people that bother me most in the entire series as far as realism is concerned. I can see them being formidable in their desert environment, but find it absolutely ludicrous they find success in the relatively open battlefields of Randland proper.

 

For starters, in the Aiel War, how in the world did they feed themselves? It was an army of around 80,000 or so, for three years, with no supply lines. We see the Seanchan constantly talking about supplies and setting up infrastructure for new towns and farms while implementing their rule in newly conquered areas. There is no evidence of Aiel doing the same, even when they somewhat settle down, like the Shaido. This is nonsense.

 

Secondly, we are told Aiel equipment is a small leather buckler, 3-4 short spears, possibly a shortbow, and no armor at all. It is laughable to believe that they would be able to stand up to a Randlander pike charge, let alone not be slaughtered by crossbows or a heavy cavalry charge. The only explanation I can think of is that the Aiel are not human, because they are not susceptible to frostbite, hunger, disease, heavy infantry, archers, or heavy cavalry.

 

Nothing about them rings true to me at all.

[elric]

i agrea story dont need to have good endings.

 

and personally i dont percieve Aial winning a good ending , i percieve it as loss of innocent and a win with NO honor in it.

 

" they don't have the military capability, adaptability, or channeling ability to fight the Seanchan." and THAT what bugg me.

the Aial in the books been portrait as capable and adaptable, able to drop tradition in face of reality, to accept changes.

their leadership system was portrait as the best (atleast in mny opinion) with the future leaders are picked due to capability and streangth of character not due to heritage of bullyness (AS power based system), and the current leadership actually mentor and nurture the future (Sur /Amys relation).

that why the future Aial seem so off to me.

 

"

Rhuidean. The city was besieged by Seanchan. Oncala sneered. Sean-chan had no honor. They had been told

that Rhuidean was a place for peace. The Aiel did not assault the palace in Ebou Dar. The Seancha should not

attack Rhuidean.

They were lizards. It was a source of constant frustration that, after de-cades of war, the battle lines remained

nearly the same as they had been after her greatfather went to Shayol Ghul.

"

the Aial wasnt loosing bad till Andor fall, and it took 20 years for thing to seriously decline.

they had time to change tact.

 

the way i view Cycle channeling is like WMD, i c it like a war when 1 side have much better resource while the other side have solo access to nukes.

that the way i percieve it,

[elric]

Bale

 

check the Mongol tactic + equipment + logistic.

the Aial kind of seem to me as odd mix between the Mongol and the Viking (wont be surprise if they started as lab based variation).

 

and when i compare cycle to nuke i dont talk about a 13 member cycle for the battlefield , i talk about a 78+ cycle for the cities.

about wiping out the senchean cities starting with both capitols.

[Shaidar]

Population of Seanchanland - 250 million (Randland has about 50 million, and the Seanchan continent is 4-5x bigger, and more prosperous besides, so population density is probably higher too).

Population of Aiel Waste - 5 million max

 

There's your answer.

 

Once the standing Aiel armies are destroyed (they're going to be taking a big battering in TG anyway), they will have no more reserves left. Seanchan manpower is for all intents and purposes limited only by what they can ferry over and supply to Randland.

[balefired-ed2]

Bale

 

check the Mongol tactic + equipment + logistic.

the Aial kind of seem to me as odd mix between the Mongol and the Viking (wont be surprise if they started as lab based variation).

 

and when i compare cycle to nuke i dont talk about a 13 member cycle for the battlefield , i talk about a 78+ cycle for the cities.

about wiping out the senchean cities starting with both capitols.

 

The Mongols had a mix of heavy cavalry, light cavalry, and spearmen. They also had a completely clear defined military structure, and understanding of logistics, strategy, operations, and tactics.

 

The two Aiel incursions that we know of we have no evidence of them really conquering any territory or maintaining any supply lines. The Mongols, one of the most sophisticated militaries in the history of the world, would either forcibly subjugate or accept surrender to their rule, incorporating new people into their empire and therefore protecting and shortening supply lines.

 

Furthermore, this future Aiel war is not one of conquest, it is a raid to rescue other Aiel from captivity. The Seanchan react to this with their usual method, bringing everything they have to bear to combat this threat until it is eliminated. These are presumably Aiel who still have no true homeland outside the waste, and are probably decimated by the Last Battle, fighting against a new continental empire that seems to be thriving with a government that is ready, willing, and able to protect its rule.

 

I will leave you with a quote from William Tecumseh Sherman at the outset of the American Civil War:

 

You people of the South don't know what you are doing. This country will be drenched in blood, and God only knows how it will end. It is all folly, madness, a crime against civilization! You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. War is a terrible thing! You mistake, too, the people of the North. They are a peaceable people but an earnest people, and they will fight, too. They are not going to let this country be destroyed without a mighty effort to save it… Besides, where are your men and appliances of war to contend against them? The North can make a steam engine, locomotive, or railway car; hardly a yard of cloth or pair of shoes can you make. You are rushing into war with one of the most powerful, ingeniously mechanical, and determined people on Earth — right at your doors. You are bound to fail. Only in your spirit and determination are you prepared for war. In all else you are totally unprepared, with a bad cause to start with. At first you will make headway, but as your limited resources begin to fail, shut out from the markets of Europe as you will be, your cause will begin to wane. If your people will but stop and think, they must see in the end that you will surely fail.

[Cybertrolloc]

I've seen most of the things that made me wince in the preceding posts corrected, so that's good.

 

Only glaring omission is that the Aiel and especially the current leadership got wiped in TG, Bruan being the only surviving current clan chief iirc. Also I think in general the Aiel show more adaptability than is on the whole credited here.

 

Even with the power being nerfed in ~KoD and onward and characters in general using it more poorly since Dumai's Wells, I'm still a pretty OP >> practically anything else warfare-wise guy. The simultaneous offense and defense it provides the more experienced and capable channelers is pretty staggering, well at least until lately :)

[BFG]

I've just been re-reading CoS and was wondering how this would add to the discussion, in terms of adaptability. During Rands absence from Cairhien, over 1000 spears a day were fleeing due to the bleakness (they think he's abandoned them) - I'm not sure how many spears were in Cairhien at the time but most had been sent towards Illian, so 1000 a day sounds significant. Avis vision talks about the Aiel being abandoned by Rand (again) I wonder how much of an effect this would have after TG?

[Whizbang]

That does bring up a good point. A remnant of a remnant is supposed to survive TG. Avi's vision implies that whatever that remnant is, it is still more or less culturally the same, and still strong enough to fight the Seanchan for decades. I don't think, after TG, the Aiel will be in any condition to fight the Seanchan. Aiel in the hieght of their power? Maybe could take on the Seanchan's vast numbers and better military organization. Aiel after TG? Definitely not. Avi's vision is only one of countlesws possible outcomes, and an unlikely one at that, IMO. I believe it is more of a device to get her to understand and accept something about herself.

[ozimandias]

I was of the opinion that this future might be unavoidable in a lot of ways... When looking back over other prophecies I saw this one: "'he shall slay his people with the sword of peace, and destroy them with the leaf" clearly destroying them with the leaf was the way of the leaf (quite literal) but could 'slay his people with the sword of peace' be a reference to the Dragon's Peace that weighs so heavily on the Aiel in Aviendiah's vision?

[Morden]

Quite likely, but there is a difference between destroying the Aiel as a people. They need to change to survive, and allowing the Seanchan to win. Im still of the opinion he should have exterminated them while he had the chance.

 

But then again I think I would rather let the Dark One win than the seanchan. He just wants to destroy everything, they enjoy torture, slavery on a grand scale and genocide. Choice between the two i'd take the big guy on without them and take my chances.

[ozimandias]

Oh, I forgot to mention that I think the way the Seanchan will beat the Aiel + Aes Sedai channelers, who greatly outnumber them, is revealed by this prophecy: "The great battle done, but the world not done with battle. The land divided by the return, and the guardians balance out the servants. The future teeters on the edge of a blade." The Aes Sedai are the Servants of All. What could balance them out? The Guardian - which blocks the one power. Either they find a way to replicate its effects or (in the short term) they take far madding while Rand gathers on the FoM.

[balefired-ed2]

Oh, I forgot to mention that I think the way the Seanchan will beat the Aiel + Aes Sedai channelers, who greatly outnumber them, is revealed by this prophecy: "The great battle done, but the world not done with battle. The land divided by the return, and the guardians balance out the servants. The future teeters on the edge of a blade." The Aes Sedai are the Servants of All. What could balance them out? The Guardian - which blocks the one power. Either they find a way to replicate its effects or (in the short term) they take far madding while Rand gathers on the FoM.

 

Asha Man means guardian.

[ozimandias]

Asha Man means guardian.

So does guardian.

[shortkut]

Asha Man means guardian.

So does guardian.

+1

[Luckers]

Oh, I forgot to mention that I think the way the Seanchan will beat the Aiel + Aes Sedai channelers, who greatly outnumber them, is revealed by this prophecy: "The great battle done, but the world not done with battle. The land divided by the return, and the guardians balance out the servants. The future teeters on the edge of a blade." The Aes Sedai are the Servants of All. What could balance them out? The Guardian - which blocks the one power. Either they find a way to replicate its effects or (in the short term) they take far madding while Rand gathers on the FoM.

 

In addition to this being about the Asha'man (guardians, not guardian), as was pointed out above, we also don't know that the Aes Sedai and Asha'man massively outnumber the damane. One percent of the population can channel, and that number is higher in Seanchan, and Seanchan has a much, much greater population to the westland, so it all comes down to the question of what percentage of channelers have the spark. Even if its a miniscule percentage, the fact that no Seanchan die from lack of training, the oath free lifespan, and subsequent compounding of the number of active channelers, the massive population, the channelers leashed since landing...

 

It's entirely possible the damane outnumber ALL of the other channeler groups combined.

[Mr Ares]

Also, on the subject of the three oaths... Why three? Why not just one oath that encompases them all. "I vow to always speak the truth, not to use the OP as a weapon except against darkfriends and the shadow and in the last defence of my life or that of my warder, or to make a weapon that a man (should be "person") may use to kill another." BAM, one oath, longer life.

The Oaths were added over time, not all at once, and they don't know that it shortens lifespan anyway, so no real reason to make it one big Oath.

 

As for the Aiel/Seanchan war, we're still stuck on the same points - anything that a big circle weaves can be undone, so it's not an insurmountable advantage. Any knowledge advantage you have lasts until they capture someone with the knowledge. Seanchan numbers are vastly greater, so you can't win a war of attrition. They are better able to replace losses. The Aiel have no reason to start with a "scorched earth" tactic, and by the time they would switch to it they would already have suffered heavy losses, thus making such a tactic non-viable. A circle has less total power than those individuals unlinked, so if you wanted to destroy a city it would be possible to do so with several unlinked channelers. Other than a base assertion that a big circle is "like a nuke", there is no real counter to the many, many points raised as to why the Aiel are unlikely in the extreme to be able to successfully prosecute a war against the Seanchan alone, and would struggle even with allies.

[elric]

Mr Ares.

 

we disagrea on 2 points

 

1. can cycle be countered -> not can a cycle construct be undone, but is a weave thrown at a target by a cycle be countered/deflected by several solo channelers.

 

2. the Aiel had decades to start scortched earth tactic, it been 20 year since Andor fallen and the meeting about retreat to the waste.

and i douth Andor fallen in a day .

 

notice i dont use superior knowledge as a point and i think i was the 1st to raise that knowledge will be gain by senchean after collaring.

i didnt ignore your points and i conceade to alot of them (not starting with scortched, small cucle tanks problem..)

but to my opinion the strategic advantage of Nuke (uber cycle) outweight the logistic advantage the Senchean have.

 

i c cycle as undefendable attack (against cities and large ocupied areas)

also the senchean are VERY vulnerable to assasination (the vision Aiel abstain from attacking Abu-dar -> senchean leadership strike me as sheer stupidity)

[GenPender]

Circles are simultaneously being given far too much and far too little weight in this discussion. While they certainly would not function as nuclear weapons, they would provide a tremendous advantage to the Aiel and co. in head-to-head channeler battles. By virtue of joining a circle, channelers can make themselves virtually unshieldable, and thereby uncapturable, while giving themselves the capacity to pick off (via shielding) individual damane at their leisure. Provided there's enough cover/skill from the circle leader that they're not blasted at the outset, the circle would very quickly be able to put any Seanchan channelers out of commission.

 

The effect of Travelling on logistics is also overstated. Randland is rapidly moving towards Civil War-era armies, with cannon, railroads, and rifles. McClellan's army on the Peninsula (~110,000 ready for duty) consumed 600 tons of materials a day. No, that's not a typo. Six Hundred Tons a Day. Two years later, Grant's wagon train in the Overland Campaign stretched 70 miles, and that was with orders for stripped-down baggage and supplies. With Seanchan channelers unable to form circles and thus form massive gateways, they will have to divert hundreds, if not thousands, of damane to constantly hold open gateways to allow for that flow of supplies, which takes that many off the battlelines. Moving men would be easier, but still difficult.

 

Really, the only way the situation seen by Aviendha would come to pass is through a doomsday scenario. The first vision, and therefore the start of the war, seems to occur no more than 25 years beyond TG (Bruan is still alive, Padra is clearly quite young, she notes that "17 years without war" is too long, etc.). However, Tuon has been dead for years, apparently after having united the Seanchan mainland, and the rest of the High Command seems to have died out during TG: there's no mention of Mat, Elayne, Aviendha, Rand, Egwene, Nynaeve, or any other channelers in prominent positions who should have still been alive even in the later visions and would have had a palpable impact on the war effort. Pair that with the Seanchan's ostensibly quick invention of rifles, or at least some sort of sidearm, and the stage has been set for the Aiel to be crushed.

 

 

As a final point, the Aiel's Maidens of the Spear and related, for lack of a better term, breeding customs also put them at a distinct disadvantage in a long-term war where population growth and regeneration are going to be major factors.

[BFG]

There's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet, possibly because it doesn't dircetly relate to the war, but, surely the elephant in the room is how do the Seanchan react to learning that sul'dam can channel? Do they start testing sul'dam every few months to check? Do they acknowledge that damane are human. Is it possible that how they react to this (and they're going to have to, too many people know about it now, including Mat whose looking for a solution) may avert the war completely.

[Cybertrolloc]

Circle also allows both powers to be used which is supposedly another multiplier. It really depends on how capable and flexible OP defenses are, Dem's seem great at the Cleansing but he's also at the top of the power and knowledge curves as well :)

 

Anyway, I'm trying to think of examples of more powerful channeler being stymied by a less powerful (weave cut or similar) and coming up empty, but even then there might be more link mojo going on than we know about too.

[GregerMoek]

Will Mat be on the Seanchan side?

[Whizbang]

Why haven't the Seanchan "culled" channeling out of their population? If Randland has done so by aggressively hunting down and killing/gentling male channelers, then it seems to me that the Seanchan should have very few remaining. They are MUCH more aggressive in hunting down not only males, but females. They test EVERY male and female of a certain age every year for a number of years until they are old enough to be considered “safe”.

 

So, right away, they eliminate a higher % of males than Randland ever could dream about. And unless they allow Damane to breed (which I guess might not be too out of character, but we don’t see any evidence of this), they eliminate just as many women as men from the gene pool. Maybe Suldam are allowed to marry/breed, but it seems as if perhaps their service to the empire might preclude this.

 

Give it a few generations, and there shouldn’t be a channeler left in the population. Granted, channelers live for hundreds of years, so you could coast on the previous generations for quite a while, but the Seanchan have been doing this for hundreds of years. They should have started seeing a drastic drop in the Damane population, both as older damane die off, and as fewer damane are found each year. By the time they get to Randland, they would be panicking over how "few" damane they actually have, and their excitement over a new poplulation to cull from should be the foremost in thier minds. We have not seen this level of panic/excitment from any of the Seanchan.

[Mr Ares]

Mr Ares.

 

we disagrea on 2 points

 

1. can cycle be countered -> not can a cycle construct be undone, but is a weave thrown at a target by a cycle be countered/deflected by several solo channelers.

I've already shown that it can be. You have provided no evidence to show that it cannot be.

 

2. the Aiel had decades to start scortched earth tactic, it been 20 year since Andor fallen and the meeting about retreat to the waste.

and i douth Andor fallen in a day .

So? Even if you do try it, the Seanchan have a hell of a lot of earth to scorch. You can't just blow one city off the map and say "I win". What happens when they respond by razing Rhuidean? Or any hold they can find? Scorched earth can work both ways. If you attack the Aiel every time they gather, you reduce them to small bands. Small bands can be effective in guerilla war, but it still limits the sort of fighting the Aiel can take part in. The Aiel cannot trade lives one for one, because they'll run out of lives long before the Seanchan. And if you blow a city off the map, and they respond by slaughtering your civilians, you're getting into a total war situation you can't win. You capture an Aiel, you find the location of their base, you go there and kill everyone who hasn't run yet. Saying "but they have nukes. It's scorched earth" is as silly as saying Osama bin Laden could have beaten the USA if he had nukes. No, he would have caused a lot more civilian casualties, but he lacked the resources to cripple the USA. And even with circles, the Aiel will struggle to bring sufficient force to bear to cripple the Seanchan. And if you don't cripple them, they'll cripple you, then carry on until you're all dead.

 

notice i dont use superior knowledge as a point and i think i was the 1st to raise that knowledge will be gain by senchean after collaring.

i didnt ignore your points and i conceade to alot of them (not starting with scortched, small cucle tanks problem..)

but to my opinion the strategic advantage of Nuke (uber cycle) outweight the logistic advantage the Senchean have.

An opinion you have stated repeatedly, but done little to justify. A circle is weaker, but more precise, than the sum of its parts - useful, for example, by allowing people who would otherwise be too weak to make Gateways individually to make them while linked, but if you want to destroy a city that can be done with or without links, so the ability to link doesn't get you more killing power. As the Seanchan have more channelers anyway, they have more killing power, no matter the number of circles or their size. If you send the largest possible circle, on of 72, to kill a city, and the Seanchan respond with 72 individual channelers, then the Aiel will be less able to respond to 72 small threats, will suffer casualties, will be weaker to start with (assuming average strength on both sides) and will get weaker even faster than the Seanchan. If the Seanchan put shields around their cities, that will hamper the ability of large circles to smash cities before the Seanchan can respond. If the Seanchan undo the weaves that are sent against them, they can halt the attack, and even burn out and kill the Aiel in the process.

 

i c cycle as undefendable attack (against cities and large ocupied areas)

Demonstrably wrong - Demandred proves this. And you can still put up shields to buy time, as it will take time to get through them.

 

also the senchean are VERY vulnerable to assasination (the vision Aiel abstain from attacking Abu-dar -> senchean leadership strike me as sheer stupidity)

I don't really see it. The Seanchan have dealt with assassination. Tuon has dealt with attempts on her life, and rose to become Daughter of the Nine Moons due to her being better at intrigue than her siblings, in essence. Plotting against your superiors is positively encouraged.

 

There's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet, possibly because it doesn't dircetly relate to the war, but, surely the elephant in the room is how do the Seanchan react to learning that sul'dam can channel? Do they start testing sul'dam every few months to check? Do they acknowledge that damane are human. Is it possible that how they react to this (and they're going to have to, too many people know about it now, including Mat whose looking for a solution) may avert the war completely.

In the short term, it won't necessarily impact their culture too dramatically. It requires extensive use of damane to get to the point you can be held, and Tuon's point that she chooses not to channel is a rationalisation which could hold for a while - after all, if it is not the ability to touch the power, but the action of doing so which renders one subhuman then those with the ability but who don't use it are safe. In the longer term, it will likely rpove more of a contentious issue, but the institution of damane and sul'dam could hold for several years, maybe even decades, before it crumbles. In terms of the Aiel, it's the sort of thing that would more likely be too little, too late.

 

Why haven't the Seanchan "culled" channeling out of their population? If Randland has done so by aggressively hunting down and killing/gentling male channelers, then it seems to me that the Seanchan should have very few remaining. They are MUCH more aggressive in hunting down not only males, but females. They test EVERY male and female of a certain age every year for a number of years until they are old enough to be considered “safe”.

 

So, right away, they eliminate a higher % of males than Randland ever could dream about. And unless they allow Damane to breed (which I guess might not be too out of character, but we don’t see any evidence of this), they eliminate just as many women as men from the gene pool. Maybe Suldam are allowed to marry/breed, but it seems as if perhaps their service to the empire might preclude this.

Sul'dam are not removed from the gene pool, and nor are male learners - so the majority of the channeling population is unaffected. And given we see no evidence that the sul'dam are forbidden or discouraged from breeding, why would think that they would be? Surely the default assumption should be that people can procreate unless they can't? The majority of groups in society can procreate, so it surely makes more sense to think that exceptions to the rule will be flagged up, whereas there is no need to flag up those that follow the rule. Why would their service to the empire be a problem? Many provide service to the empire, or the Empress, but their duties do not, as a rule, render them unable to procreate, or strongly discourage it.

[elric]

u HADN'T shown a cycle can be deflected.

u shown a cycle construct can be undone and i do admit it.

 

the Senchean bewen much more ruthless then the Airl in Avi vision.

the Sanchean DID ATTACKEd Rhuidean , while the Aiel left Abu Dar (the new Senchean capitol) alone.

also the Senchean are much more vulnerable to Masive population base attackes then the Aiel who leave in separatewd clan (biggest cities are the size of small/modarate Randland cities while they outnumber any Randland Nation)

 

u totally ignore the over-centralize nature of Senchean society

and you grossly under-estimate the Effect of seeing an entire city go BOOM.

 

cycle are the better channeling technology , it silly as saying how can Kortez beet the vastly logistic superior Inca empire.

how can England beet the vastly logistic superior France / china (navel superiority)

 

you also ignore the mentality -> Aiel -> life is a dream we all awake from is more fitting to an all out war.

to name a few minor pints

 

i dont deny Senchean have much more resource, but my MAIN point is the Senchean solo channeler attacks CAN be defended against, while a cycle attack CANT. (and again -> undoing a construct is NOT the same as deflecting a direct weave that come toward you)

[Yosarian]

I think the damane are simply much more deadly weapons then the Wise Ones. The Wise Ones just don't channel all that often, they never take part in battles, and they're not really as good at most kinds of channeling as, say, the Aes Sedi. The damane, on the other hand, are nothing but weapons. They are far more deadly channelers then the Wise Ones.

 

Also, in Avienda's vision, the Senchean first conquer Andor and thus gain Andor's cannons and war machines, then they take the White Tower and leash all the Aes Sedi. Each time the Senchean conquer a new land, they get more damane, more resources, and they very quickly take control and make it a part of their empire. The Aiel fight a losing war and hold out longer then anyone else, but they can't fight the entire rest of the world and win, and in the last stages of that possible future that's what it comes down to.