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DRAGONMOUNT

A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

Chapter 11


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Well Dave, it definitely stands out more if you know who Jame is based on, I guess. Even so, it's not surprising that Mat reads natural to you here if he did in TGS, as both were written by BS, and there's nothing wrong with that, except it's well documented that many do feel a difference.

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A little scouting would reveal that weakened defence.

Or the appearance of, in the same way she baited Mesaana.

 

Perhaps if they had a couple of years to prepare. Without those I'd say if the Seanchan make a determined effort I don't see how the WT could resist them. The Damane are simply superior in terms of fighting. Aes Sedai may be better at many things in regard to channelling, but in terms of discipline, coordination and battle experience the Damane have them beaten by miles. If they strike at night with dozens of Gateways opening at strategic locations all over the tower supported by a few thousand soldiers the Tower would fall within hours. The Aes Sedai have to come up with a way to prevent anyone from Travelling within the White Tower or perhaps even within Tar Valon to be secure.

No they don't. Look at how the Rebels handled it when they thought Sammael was atatcking (it was actually a bubble of Evil). They quickly formed circles, and took care of things.

 

Very bad example that one. If anything that showed that the utter lack of experience. They blindly formed circles without assessing the threat before them. The circles were a waste of time.

 

The Aes Sedai just need to be prepared. If the Seanchan attack at night now, all they need to do is Travel to pre assigned locations and form links, adding Novices and Accepted too. The moment they're in circles, the damane are going to be toast. As Egwene proved in tGS, just give a little organization and circles to anyone opposing the Seanchan, and they do marvelously well. Even Novices were able to hold back the Seanchan with ease once they had links.

 

Frankly, I think its going to be the marvelous efficacy of links that will finally convince the Seanchan they need to remove the a'dam for the LB.

 

By the time they had every one awake and lined up for that the battle would be pretty much over from what I can see. The Seanchan have captured Aes Sedai who can tell them where everything is. The rooms with the angreal and ter'angreal, where the novices sleep, where the sisters, where the Amyrlin. They can just open the Gateways and lay waste to the Amyrlin's quarters or where the sisters sleep killing dozens of them within seconds and those Aes Sedai who are foolish enough to venture out of their quarters instead of immediately fleeing with a gateway could be struck down before they even had a chance to link.

As for the novices they can probably capture hundreds of them, they are novices afterall. Most of them can barely channel and even several of them stand no chance against a single damane.

 

Perhaps if they had a couple of years to prepare. Without those I'd say if the Seanchan make a determined effort I don't see how the WT could resist them. The Damane are simply superior in terms of fighting. Aes Sedai may be better at many things in regard to channelling, but in terms of discipline, coordination and battle experience the Damane have them beaten by miles. If they strike at night with dozens of Gateways opening at strategic locations all over the tower supported by a few thousand soldiers the Tower would fall within hours. The Aes Sedai have to come up with a way to prevent anyone from Travelling within the White Tower or perhaps even within Tar Valon to be secure.

I disagree. AS have several advantages, among them being able to weave faster, a better knowledge of severing weaves aimed at you, a foolproof weave that incapacitates damane, superior numbers, and the ability to Link which utilizes that last advantage. If they are prepared, they can counter an attack as long as fewer than 6-8 hundred damane are sent.

 

EDIT: Ninja'ed by fionwe1987

 

AS are actually the slowest when it comes to destruction. Wise Ones, Windfinders, Asha'man and Damane are all faster. Remember the disparaging comments about handwaving? And apart from links AS are just not used to work together with regular soldiers in an army. The Damane are. They are drilled for war. They know more and better ways to destroy, they react quicker to a new threat. Should the Seanchan attack it wouldn't be a series of duels the Aes Sedai could probably win, it would be a battle and in battle unit cohesion and discipline trump individual skill.

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The only character that Sanderson didn't totally screwup so far has been Perrin. Frankly, if RJ didnt write the last sequence I don't even think I'd bother buying the last book at this point. I'd be just as content reading a summary somewhere to see how it all ended.

 

Nah, BS did screw Perrin up. Only unlike Mat he made Perrin better.

 

Jokes aside, I don't think BS screwed up with either Nynaeve or Rand so far.

 

I dont particularly have an issue with Nynaeve or Rand either other than some of the scenes that we've been waiting to see for the last 10 years falling completely flat and on their faces. I am thinking specifically of Rand vs Egwene in Tar Valon.

 

But ya...as far as the characters go, I think Rand and Nynaeve were done as well as anyone not RJ could have done. I think Perrin was done very well too. Mat is awful though.

 

The big issue I have is with the small things that BS flubs. Some of the dialogue is hideously out of context with the rest of the series, and small details that are actually important are completely trampled. Characters say things that they never would have said in a million years (that anyone on these forums could have corrected for him), and their mannerisms are so horridly shallow. It's as if the scenes aren't thought all the way through sometimes and the details were thought up on the spot with little reflection on whether or not they fit with the rest of the book. Like I said, half of BS's writing feels like fan fiction with the way he adds his own personal touches instead of trying to remain true to the series. What is irritating to me is that it is so blatantly obvious in many scenes that it almost certainly is intentional. That bit about Tuon was so ridiculous that it made my jaw drop. I mean really? Did he EVER see anyone in the series talk or act like that?

 

Other things that bother me is how some of the dialogue is constructed. I understand BS is intentionally not trying to copy RJ's style exactly and that is not a problem IMO. The problem is that he doesn't seem to look back and analyze different characters and say to himself "Well, most characters speak in proper english using this sentence structure so I will try to stay true to that when I write dialogue". The general feeling is that he plows through the writing at breakneck speed and doesn't give much reflection on "this feels like a WoT scene" and instead just goes "I love this scene! I hope RJ wouldve written this scene, its sooo the way I envisioned it!".

 

That being said I am grateful the guy is finishing it and he has done a good job so far of completing the story. Maybe it's an impossibility to get someone with both the writing talents and WoT interest/knowledge to finish the series, but I feel like we definitely got someone to finish the series who had the interest and fan knowledge but very severely lacked the maturity and writing talents to finish this thing.

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That bit about Tuon...is just strikingly bad. Not to mention, it is unlikely that most people would even know her name. The average person is likely only to know her as Empress Fortuona.

 

Keep in mind that when she first landed at Ebou Dar she was known only as High Lady Tuon, and it seems every Seanchan knew the veil routine and knew her real name.

 

touche

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Though it would come nowhere close to fixing the mess, it could mend a noticeable bruise, and it would take about one minute.

 

Step 1: Take the digital copy of the whole series. "Find and Replace" 'bloody ashes' with 'blood and ashes'.

Step 2: "Find and Replace" 'blood and blood and ashes' with 'blood and bloody ashes'.

 

Abacadabra! The first eleven books remain unchanged and the last three are improved a little bit.

 

The inability to catch these small details is what really ticks me off. While this is a small thing in and of itself, it really reflects all of the other small things that are "off". It isn't a lack of ability here - it is purely a lack of effort by Brandon Sanderson, and that is what ticks me off the most. He just flat out is not putting forth the time and effort to get the small things right.

 

Was it really that difficult for him when writing dialogue to just ONE TIME open a previous WoT book and reference how characters phrased a common saying?

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It seems Mat will challenge Galgan to a duel. The lower classes duel with knives. Iirc Beslan's duel with another noble was with swords. Does the one challenged choose the weapons? Mat is certainly not a swordsman.

 

You know, I think you've hit upon something foreshadowed...

 

When I read the passage, I figured Mat would assassinate Galgan, but I believe in the duel theory much more. Galgan is likely a blademaster, though I guess we'll soon know whether I'm right to guess it. Mat defeated two blademasters with quarterstaff. I think he's about to toss the dice once more with Galgan, blade to quarterstaff. This time, I'm imagining that Abell's voice, warning Mat that the blow to the larnyx, the "killing blow", will sound one last time in his head.

 

And Mat won't care.

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That bit about Tuon...is just strikingly bad. Not to mention, it is unlikely that most people would even know her name. The average person is likely only to know her as Empress Fortuona.

 

Keep in mind that when she first landed at Ebou Dar she was known only as High Lady Tuon, and it seems every Seanchan knew the veil routine and knew her real name.

 

I agree @Terez. They would know her, and they would react as they did. If you ask me, of all the dialogue and interplay in the chapter, this was the part that felt closest to perfect. Mat forgetting to play his role. Paying no attention to titles. Becoming extremely focused. He's the same fellow that chased down Comar in The Dragon Reborn.

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AS are actually the slowest when it comes to destruction. Wise Ones, Windfinders, Asha'man and Damane are all faster. Remember the disparaging comments about handwaving? And apart from links AS are just not used to work together with regular soldiers in an army. The Damane are. They are drilled for war. They know more and better ways to destroy, they react quicker to a new threat. Should the Seanchan attack it wouldn't be a series of duels the Aes Sedai could probably win, it would be a battle and in battle unit cohesion and discipline trump individual skill.

 

I agree, a full scale attack on Tar Valon would be different from a raid on the WT. For one thing it wouldn't be fought in the hallways of the WT which are usefull for circles since you only have to worry about what's right in front of you. While a circle grants greater power, it diminishes the number of weavers. In a hallway in doesn't matter much since everything will be in your line of sight, but on a more open battlefield a circle could very easely be flanked.

 

Also the raid on the WT was undertook by 200 soldiers and 50 damane and the result didn't look good for the Aes Sedai. Now there reasons for that but still, faced with a Seachan army that will be way than anything they can hope to match I have a hard time seeing how they are going resist without help considering the numerous advatages the Seanchan have as noted by b3arz3rg3r. At best they can hope hope to hold the WT, by imitating Egwene's actions on a larger scale, but I don't see how they could hold Tar Valon against such a superior Seanchan force armed with the ability to Travel. And it will be even worse if they are attacked while most of their forces are at the FoM.

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Question, in relation to the seemingly forthcoming Seanchan assault on Tar Valon:

 

Do we have a solid number regarding the number of leashed damane available to the Seanchan at this point?

 

The White Tower's numbers overall have grown, because of the influx of novices to the former rebels, but the number of fully trained Aes Sedai is down significantly, due to the fracturing of the Tower and the final defection of the Black Ajah. I'd be surprised if Egwene could muster 400 trained Aes Sedai in Tar Valon right now.

 

Yes, the novices could be used as Power-boosters in circles in the event of an attack - though if that kind of coordination just falls into place I'll have to sigh under my breath - but the sul'dam are ruthlessly efficient trainers when it comes to turning their charges into weapons for the Empire. Of the max 400 (and probably fewer) Aes Sedai that Egwene could muster right now, how many of them have a great deal of experience in battle? In most situations, an Aes Sedai can intimidate with a ring and a frown. But even the Battle Ajah's Captain-General didn't acquit herself that impressively during the raid (admittedly, she'd just lost a Warder, but that is going to happen in battle ...)

 

The Seanchan raid captured 40 women, about 24 of whom were full Aes Sedai. They would have gotten more if their escape method wasn't via to'raken - a particularly vulnerable escape platform to Egwene's fount o' power counterattack. They will not be depending on such mundane transport now.

 

Unless something changes, I would expect the upcoming Seanchan assault to match Fortuona's (somewhat melodromatic) assessment: The White Tower is doomed. (So obviously, something will change - I expect that Mat will somehow be involved in saving Egwene's bacon once more.)

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Well Dave, it definitely stands out more if you know who Jame is based on, I guess. Even so, it's not surprising that Mat reads natural to you here if he did in TGS, as both were written by BS, and there's nothing wrong with that, except it's well documented that many do feel a difference.

 

Sorry, it seems like I was unclear. I meant I felt Mat was off big time in tGS, but did not feel like he was off here in this excerpt. It's never going to be the same as RJ, but I thought that it was light years beyond what BS wrote for Mat in tGS.

 

I think anytime an author bases a character off of someone in real life, people who know the person are going to feel like it's off, since they know the person. But that doesn't mean the character doesn't fit in the universe, just that it doesn't work for those people. I just wanted to say that as someone who has no clue who the people these two characters are based off of are, I personally did not read anything "off" about them. Others may certainly disagree, as many have done so here.

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The White Tower's numbers overall have grown, because of the influx of novices to the former rebels, but the number of fully trained Aes Sedai is down significantly, due to the fracturing of the Tower and the final defection of the Black Ajah. I'd be surprised if Egwene could muster 400 trained Aes Sedai in Tar Valon right now.

 

There were around a 1000 Aes Sedai at first, maybe a little less. Twenty percent of those are black. I'd say there are probably 700 at best who haven't been killed or don't follow someone else at this point. And there are also Aes Sedai that stayed away from the schism and have not returned yet. It's hard to say how many she could muster at the moment. Maybe 500? I'm really not sure.

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This excerpt of the excerpt may help illustrate my concerns.

 

“You have sworn the oaths, traveler?” the guard asked in a lazy Seanchan drawl. On the other side of the gate, a different soldier waved over the next person in line.

“Yes, I have indeed,” Mat said. “The oaths to the great Seanchan Empire, and the Empress herself, may she live forever. I’m just a poor, traveling sell-sword, once attendant to House Haak, a noble family in Murandy. I lost my eye to some bandits in the Tween Forest two years back while protecting a young child I discovered in the woods. I raised her as my own, but—”

The soldier waved him on. The fellow did not look as if he had been listening. Mat considered staying put out of principle. Why would the soldiers force people to wait in such a long line and give them time to think of a cover story, only to not hear it out? That could offend a man. Not Matrim Cauthon, who was always lighthearted and never offended. But someone else, surely.

 

First of all, Mat has gone from a unique perspective and set of priorities to being a bit of a caricature. Why does he feel the need to create an elaborate backstory for his character, just to get through a gate? Did he expect the Spanish Inquisition? (NO-body expects the Spanish Inquisi- *smacks myself in the head*)

 

ahem

 

Seriously, though, Mat's playfulness has gone over into ridiculousness. We see the same thing in TGS when he's even assigning roles to people. And they are bad backstories, too. He's supposedly raised some woods girl, and is no doubt on the way to explaining why she isn't here? Come on. He's commanded enough soldiers (both in life and in memory) that he should know that gate guards are snoringly bored - don't give them a reason to look at you twice, and they won't.

 

Mat has always been a little playful, although truth be told, that had been consistently decreasing throughout the books. Mat in KoD was definitely not the same Mat from TEoTW, or even TDR. But for some reason, he's reverted. He's putting blue powder on people's sweetrolls. Catching the badger for his reunion with Perrin was actually handled fairly well - the situation made his nostalgic prank appropriate - but for the rest its too much of the Fool rather than the Gambler, as Luckers might say. The Trickster is only a part of who he is, not the dominant part of his personality.

 

Also, Brandon has been cited as saying that one of his epiphanies in dealing with Mat was his realization that Mat is an "unreliable narrator." Aside from the fact that every non-God character in a book should be an unreliable narrator, so that wouldn't make Mat special, Brandon seems to have taken this realization and stretched it into making Mat almost wholly un-self-aware. That's the problem with the last paragraph in this excerpt - it is either blindingly un-self-aware, or it is bitter internal sarcasm. The first option is not really believable in a character with as much development as Mat. The second option would be totally off in tone with the rest of Mat's internal monologue. It would have been better, in my opinion, if he had ended it after "That could offend a man." The last two sentences are not merely unnecessary, they're actually counterproductive - Mat is just not that un-self-aware.

 

Sanderson just seems to ... miss. Which is, though sad, understandable and even forgivable to me. Brandon has never written a character like Mat before, at least not in any of his books which I've read (the first Mistborn trilogy, Elantris, and The Way of Kings). Mat is just foreign territory. Its the kind of problem that would have to be dealt with through extensive, intensive editing for style as well as content.

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The White Tower's numbers overall have grown, because of the influx of novices to the former rebels, but the number of fully trained Aes Sedai is down significantly, due to the fracturing of the Tower and the final defection of the Black Ajah. I'd be surprised if Egwene could muster 400 trained Aes Sedai in Tar Valon right now.

 

There were around a 1000 Aes Sedai at first, maybe a little less. Twenty percent of those are black. I'd say there are probably 700 at best who haven't been killed or don't follow someone else at this point. And there are also Aes Sedai that stayed away from the schism and have not returned yet. It's hard to say how many she could muster at the moment. Maybe 500? I'm really not sure.

 

Of the ones in the Black Ajah, whom Verin uncovered, a large percent were in Tar Valon at the end of TGS. Fifty were executed, and 20 escaped from the rebel camp. A few more were caught in the Tower, (including three that Verin hadn't identified) and 60 more escaped from there. That means that a minimum of 130 were removed from the number of Aes Sedai in the Tar Valon area. According to LoC chapter 7, there were just under 300 Aes Sedai with Elaida, and a slightly larger number in Salidar. Remove from that 600-ish combined figure the 130+ Black Ajah, the 24 taken in the raid, the losses from the failed expeditions against the Black Tower and the embassy to take Rand, and the assorted losses from bubbles of evil and other incidents along the way, and I think 400 might be the highest reasonable number. It wouldn't surprise me if the actual number were lower.

 

The Aes Sedai have been seriously attrited.

 

 

+ over a thousand novices, many of whom were trained, and all of whom can be used in circles. But I'm guessing most of them will be at Merrilor.

 

I know ... but honestly, I will have to sigh a bit if they turn out to be effective that way. I know it was sort of foreshadowed with Egwene's use of a novice circle in her Fount of Power appearance, but it just feels so deus-ex-machina-y to me. "Oh no, our organization is seriously depleted, almost to the point of ineffectiveness!" "Oh looky, massive numbers of new recruits who are stunningly effective!"

 

I just find it hard to believe that all these novices would suddenly be effectively battle-trained when its clear that many of the Aes Sedai themselves are not. But that's just my personal assessment, I'll admit.

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You don't need them to be effective in battle. You need them to know how to Link (which many do, now, and without a doubt they've been passing the knowledge along even if the sisters don't know about it). Hell, of a 1500 force, only 116 need to know how to put on their shoes on the right foot (and there are that many Greens, who could be made to be very effective with some training). They should be able to handle 7-10 times that number of damane (just as the Windfinders had no problem dealing with the Blacks who took Elayne).

 

Also, having most of the Tower in the FoM might actually be an advantage. Those who stay behind only need to flee and alert Egwene. She'd then have the perfect staging ground to organize the party that will wipe the Seanchan army from the face of Randland (not to mention, the benefit of having Asha'man laying around, presumably willing to help against the invaders).

 

By the way, what I said earlier wasn't that AS were the fastest on their feet in a battle, but that they can weave the fastest. A distinct advantage, if what you need to do is simply untie every a'dam around.

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i'm going to throw this out there...I dont think the Galgan thing is true. Its just a plot to see who is loyal to the empress (may she live forever).

 

so when mat finally sees tuon...he will see her standing side by side galgan and mat will say something about that guy is there to kill you blah blah.

 

tuon will say "foolish toy, that is just one of our ruses to weed out the unloyal" or something like that. I am of the opinion that the Seachan play a version of daes demar (sp?) just not as overt.

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Tuon will never call Mat Toy again, I don't think so. It was a game, one Mat attempted to play himself and lost, but after marrying him she only ever thought of him as Matrim, and I'm fairly certain she'll continue in that vein. Regardless, the thing with incompetent assassins truly does seem an evolution on his game with inquiring after the possibility then killing everyone involved. However, unlike that game (which was only played between Galgan and Tuon -- and her eyes and ears of course) this new stage is much less believable, for reasons I mentioned earlier.

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...However, unlike that game (which was only played between Galgan and Tuon -- and her eyes and ears of course) this new stage is much less believable, for reasons I mentioned earlier.

 

Sorry - not to sound like a total goober, but you lost me there. Can you give me a link or just cut and paste the whole argument? I tried searching the past 9 pages, but I only see stuff about people commenting on the BS rendition of Mat. I may have overlooked your "reasons" as I tried to ignore all that writing mumbo jumbo and just stick to the fun stuff.

 

too bad she doesnt call him toy anymore. I have this image in my head..."silly toy, tricks are for kids..."

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Tuon will never call Mat Toy again, I don't think so. It was a game, one Mat attempted to play himself and lost, but after marrying him she only ever thought of him as Matrim, and I'm fairly certain she'll continue in that vein. Regardless, the thing with incompetent assassins truly does seem an evolution on his game with inquiring after the possibility then killing everyone involved. However, unlike that game (which was only played between Galgan and Tuon -- and her eyes and ears of course) this new stage is much less believable, for reasons I mentioned earlier.

Spot on!

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Also, having most of the Tower in the FoM might actually be an advantage. Those who stay behind only need to flee and alert Egwene. She'd then have the perfect staging ground to organize the party that will wipe the Seanchan army from the face of Randland (not to mention, the benefit of having Asha'man laying around, presumably willing to help against the invaders).

 

If someone arrives from Caemlyn with news of a burning city and Trollocs attacking, where will the Asha'man choose to go? Caemlyn's in more immediate need of help since people are actually dying there; the captured Aes Sedai and novices will just be collared. Not to mention that many Asha'man have ties to Andor—Flinn was in the Queen's Guards for forty years and the Black Tower is outside Caemlyn.

 

Also, I think Egwene's promises to the monarchs are going to cause problems (that passage seemed pretty foreboding). If either Tear or Illian is attacked as well, she'll be hard pressed to find available channelers to provide gateways for an entire army. But she can't go back on her word, or they'll never trust the White Tower again. Word would spread that an Aes Sedai, the Amyrlin herself, had made false promises, contrary to the Oaths. So she'll have to provide the help she promised.

 

Egwene paused. Tar Valon had been separated from the Seanchan by hundreds of miles, and had nearly been destroyed. [Darlin] was right to be afraid, and he was a good king for considering it. But she needed his army at the Field of Merrilor. Perhaps she could offer a way for him to both be safe and help with Rand.

Illian holds for now, she wrote. And gives you a buffer between the Seanchan and yourself. I will provide you with gateways and a promise. If the Seanchan move against Tear, I will give you gateways so you can return immediately and defend your nation.

She hesitated. Chances were good that the Seanchan had Traveling now. Nobody was safe from them, no matter how far or close they might be. If they decided to strike for Tear, even giving Darlin gateways back might not be enough to help.

[...]

Gregorin, the steward in Illian, was very hesitant to support her cause—he seemed more intimidated by Rand than Darlin was, and the Seanchan were not a distant concern for him. They were practically pounding on his city gates. She wrote Gregorin a firm letter, giving a promise like the one she'd given Darlin.

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Also, having most of the Tower in the FoM might actually be an advantage. Those who stay behind only need to flee and alert Egwene. She'd then have the perfect staging ground to organize the party that will wipe the Seanchan army from the face of Randland (not to mention, the benefit of having Asha'man laying around, presumably willing to help against the invaders).

 

If someone arrives from Caemlyn with news of a burning city and Trollocs attacking, where will the Asha'man choose to go? Caemlyn's in more immediate need of help since people are actually dying there; the captured Aes Sedai and novices will just be collared. Not to mention that many Asha'man have ties to Andor—Flinn was in the Queen's Guards for forty years and the Black Tower is outside Caemlyn.

 

So far nothing gives me the impression that Asha'man have any special ties to Andor or any country. Not only are male channellers still pretty much outcasts and will remain that way until saidin being clean is made public to all, but also the recruiters looked for men willing to give up their countries in favor of following the Dragon Reborn. And finally there's nothing to indicate that there are more men from Andor in the BT than there are men from everywhere else. Taim has been using Gateways almost since the beginning. And he recruited all over the Westlands.

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+ over a thousand novices, many of whom were trained, and all of whom can be used in circles. But I'm guessing most of them will be at Merrilor.

Not trying to be over critical, but why do you think the novices are at the FoM?

 

I don't; I was talking about the Aes Sedai. Sorry for not being clear; this was just in response to the earlier comments about whether many Aes Sedai would even be in the Tower. Since Egwene is trying to impress with numbers, I think she'll probably bring most of the Aes Sedai with her.

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You don't need them to be effective in battle. You need them to know how to Link (which many do, now, and without a doubt they've been passing the knowledge along even if the sisters don't know about it). Hell, of a 1500 force, only 116 need to know how to put on their shoes on the right foot (and there are that many Greens, who could be made to be very effective with some training). They should be able to handle 7-10 times that number of damane (just as the Windfinders had no problem dealing with the Blacks who took Elayne).

 

116 circles of thirteen would mean 1384 channellers with no way to defend themselves. Circles have drawbacks. They're like heavy artillery. They'll pound the crap out of pretty much anything, but catch them in the rear and suddenly they don't look so good. They sacrifice defence for offence. You need to balance them out, or the casualties will rack up real fast. Also, the Seanchan have already encountered circles during the raid. I doubt they failed to notice them. The Seanchan are like Cadsuane in the form of an empire: remarkable adaptability. I have hard time not siding with the empire that has generally kicked everyone's butts apart from a guy whose butt is protected by the pattern itself, and a guy who is pretty much unbeatable in battle. Especially when they're faced with an organization whose record since the beginning of the books is, well, not very encouraging.

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