is all the worry about the Dark One breaking free pointless?

[master]

look at it. He's fought the dragon an infinite number of times in the past and will fight him an infinite amount of times in the future. And how many times has he won? Zero. If thats the case the chances of him breaking free in any one age is tiny. Theres still the danger of the world breaking and civilisation collapsing. But thats about it in most ages.

[Agitel]

look at it. He's fought the dragon an infinite number of times in the past and will fight him an infinite amount of times in the future. And how many times has he won? Zero. If thats the case the chances of him breaking free in any one age is tiny. Theres still the danger of the world breaking and civilisation collapsing. But thats about it in most ages.

 

Key word is infinite. Each time the chance is small, but it would seem inevitable that at some point he will succeed.

 

At least, that was Ishamael's bet.

[rand4747]

he can have a very high chance of breaking free and yet never because he was just "unlucky". If they do it one way he will break free if things go another way he wont, it depends on his actions and what the Taverin do to change how the pattern is woven, along with the circumstances of the world before the Taverin arrived. Now the hairy bit is the mirror worlds because different things happen in them because they have a different possibility. Of course if it wasn't put as fact this statement "if the dark one breaks free in one world he breaks free in all" then I would assume the main worlds just the one thats always been the one that has had everything go the right way and the dark one has not won. Whereas other worlds that the darkone does win stop existing, so the only mirror worlds you can access the dark one currently hasn't won in, but in the case of that world where there was little life hes probably on his way to winning. But yea that statement seems to rule out my thought so It seems the chance has nothing to play in it and that the darkone can just never win no matter what happens, unless he breaks free in every single mirror all at once at least because they are all tied together by that statement..

[Nightstrike]

I've always had the impression that he might actually succeed some time, but that that's when the "ordinary afterlife" occurs for the souls within the Wheel. I have no proof at all, so it's just an idea I have. It could be that he never succeeds. It could also be that he succeeds, and that it will be the eternal death for all living souls within the Wheel. I prefer my own idea, so I'll stick with my favorite as long as I can.

[slatanic1]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

[Suttree]

look at it. He's fought the dragon an infinite number of times in the past and will fight him an infinite amount of times in the future. And how many times has he won? Zero.

 

That isn't correct. He just has never won an "ultimate victory". The DO has indeed won at times and had draws in various turnings.

 

Interview: Nov 1st, 1998

SciFi.com Chat (Verbatim)

 

Rothaar

When Rand takes Verin and the others through a Portal Stone in The Great Hunt, at the end of each life he hears "I have won again Lews Therin". I thought that if the Dark One won even once the Wheel would be broken and therefore the Dragon would not be reborn again. How could the Dark One have won before to be able to say "again"?

 

Robert Jordan

There are degrees of victory. The Dark One can achieve victory by breaking free, but can also achieve lesser victories. Such as by stopping the Dragon Reborn from doing other things he was born to do. It isn't as simple as him being born to fight The Dark One. It's never simple.

 

 

Interview: Jan 16th, 2003

 

COT Signing Report - Tim Kington (Paraphrased)

 

Question

(inaudible)

 

Robert Jordan

Yes, the Champion of the Light has gone over in the past. This is a game you have to win every time. Or rather, that you can only lose once—you can stay in if you get a draw. Think of a tournament with single elimination. If you lose once, that's it. In the past, when the Champion of the Light has gone over to the Shadow, the result has been a draw.

[master]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

 

 

but if there has already been an infintite number of ages, wouldnt he have broken free already if he had the chance? it kinda leads to a paradox. he can only succeed once. but there have been an infinite number of ages in the past and there will be in the future unless he breaks free, but from what I understand, even a 0.000000000000000001% chance of breaking free each age would mean he breaks free an infinite number of times. but he can only break free once. yet he hasn't. so either there arn't an infinite number of ages, the wheel of time laws of physics and cosmology are weird, or I'm making a mistake somewhere. I'm going with the second option.

[Nightstrike]

I think there's been a finite number of turnings of the Wheel since the Creator made it.

[OptimusPrime]

look at it. He's fought the dragon an infinite number of times in the past and will fight him an infinite amount of times in the future. And how many times has he won? Zero. If thats the case the chances of him breaking free in any one age is tiny. Theres still the danger of the world breaking and civilisation collapsing. But thats about it in most ages.

 

Key word is infinite. Each time the chance is small, but it would seem inevitable that at some point he will succeed.

 

At least, that was Ishamael's bet.

 

Exactly. But I think he underestimates the Wheel.

 

Im just hoping Rand understands this side of the war fully by the time him and Moridin have the real do. "Time is on my side, and always has been."

[Didgya]

The chance that the dark one will break free increase greatly due to the the incremental need to drive the plot

[nolirion]

Well the Op as a point , Ishamael's bet on the infinity of Tarmon gai'don to come and at one point man kind will fail .

The Op point it simple just as there will be and infinite Tarmon gai'don to come there is a possibility , Wot is a cyclical universe , that there as already been an infinite number of Tarmon gai'don fought rendering Ishamael argument invalid .

I believe while there are victory and loss in the fight against the DO , Tarmon gai'don is the battle light must not loose , i also believe Wot universe not been in a circle but in a spiral .

But to answer the question of the Op , the prophecy are not certainty it is a possibility of what might come if everything goes according to "plan" .

Rand said something like that in Tower of midnight during the bordelander meeting and Cadsuane said something akin to that about Min's viewing . I don't have the quote on hand I will edit

[Veggie]

It's a good question Ishamael said that there were ages when the DO succeeded in corrupting the Dragon Reborn. What happened in those ages I wonder.

[Suttree]

It's a good question Ishamael said that there were ages when the DO succeeded in corrupting the Dragon Reborn. What happened in those ages I wonder.

 

A lesser victory or draw per RJ...

[Sephie913]

Thank you for killing the thread, Suttree, with you and your immutable truth. :)

 

(I think it was half-rhetorical, like those would be interesting times to read.)

[Suttree]

Thank you for killing the thread, Suttree, with you and your immutable truth. :)

 

(I think it was half-rhetorical, like those would be interesting times to read.)

 

Lol...read it too fast and responded. It is an interesting scenario to think about for sure.

[Wolf505]

I think what's kinda silly is Egwene and all the Aes Sedai thinking Rand is crazy to want to break the seals. It's like they don't stop to consider that Rand isn't going to free the Dark One completely, just re-open the bore the same way it was from the drilling of the bore down to the sealing. Yeah, it sucked, but the world didn't come to an end and the Dark One didn't break free.

 

Will bad things happen when he breaks the seals? Undoubtedly, but not as catostrophically as the Aes Sedai seem to think. It's like if you break a hole in a piece of sheat rock, then you patch it. If your patch breaks free you don't just put a new patch over the old one, you cut around the old one, pull it out and replace it with a new patch. Do it the other way and it looks like crap.

 

Sometimes, reading ToM I just wanted to shake them all like rag dolls. Don't they consider that maybe, just maybe, there's a reason that only the Dragon can do what needs to be done? I don't seem to recall the part of the Prophecies that says the alimighty busybodies of the White Tower would save the world. By not trusting Rand to do what must be done she's basically doing the same thing Elaida did, just using politics instead of more direct methods. I think it will end up just as bad as it did for Elaida. Let's see, all the leaders of the nations show up at FoM and the Dragon, the prophesied savior, and the most powerful ta'veren ever known says "this is how it must be." Do you really think people are going to go: "Oh, well I'll just listen to this group of arrogant hens that can just barely keep away from each other's throats instead of the guy who is supposed to save us all." I swear the only ones with any sense at all seem to be Cads and crew and Nynaeve. And now, I'm not an Egwene hater, in fact I love Egwene as a character. It's just this one particular thing really cheeses me off. Like the White Tower is the ultimate authority on every damn thing in the world when it clearly isn't, by any stretch of the imagination and it's been demonstrated again and again throughout the series.

 

Sorry, /rant off. I'll now return you to your regularly scheduled forum topic.

[Duskfire]

I think what's kinda silly is Egwene and all the Aes Sedai thinking Rand is crazy to want to break the seals. It's like they don't stop to consider that Rand isn't going to free the Dark One completely, just re-open the bore the same way it was from the drilling of the bore down to the sealing. Yeah, it sucked, but the world didn't come to an end and the Dark One didn't break free.

 

We are only seeing it from Rands POV though. Egwene hasnt seen Rand for ages, have been hearing rumors and tales of how insane he was, and then all of a sudden he pops up and announces to everyone that he is going to break the last seals, and gives no hint of a plan afterwards. We (as readers) know Rand is to be trusted, but why should they when he has given them no reason to do so? To them, he could very well be insane. I am not a big Egwene fan but really, in this she was in the right; there was no reason for her to follow along with Rand.

 

And considering everyone has been trying their best to stop the seals from being broken for the entire series, I imagine breaking them is a pretty big deal :P The Dark One may not be free, but he has already shown his touch on the world and thats with some seals remaining. Whats going to happen when there is nothing?

[FarShainMael]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

 

 

but if there has already been an infintite number of ages, wouldnt he have broken free already if he had the chance? it kinda leads to a paradox. he can only succeed once. but there have been an infinite number of ages in the past and there will be in the future unless he breaks free, but from what I understand, even a 0.000000000000000001% chance of breaking free each age would mean he breaks free an infinite number of times. but he can only break free once. yet he hasn't. so either there arn't an infinite number of ages, the wheel of time laws of physics and cosmology are weird, or I'm making a mistake somewhere. I'm going with the second option.

 

There's a fourth option: the maths of probabilities deal withpossible outcomes.

 

Consider that old favourite of maths teachers everywhere, the sock drawer containing p socks of one colour (say, red) and q socks of another colour (say, blue). The question is asked: what is tha probability of taking a red sock from this drawer; and the answer is, it'sp divided by the total number of socks. (You can put that sock back now or it makes the maths untidy ) Now you are asked: what is the probability of taking a green sock from the drawer? The answer is 0, because it's impossible - there are no green socks in the drawer!

 

I therefore conclude that since the DO has not broken free despite having had an infinite number of opportunities to do so, it is simply not possible for It to break free at all. It has lost its green sock.

[Suttree]

I think what's kinda silly is Egwene and all the Aes Sedai thinking Rand is crazy to want to break the seals. It's like they don't stop to consider that Rand isn't going to free the Dark One completely, just re-open the bore the same way it was from the drilling of the bore down to the sealing. Yeah, it sucked, but the world didn't come to an end and the Dark One didn't break free.

 

We are only seeing it from Rands POV though. Egwene hasnt seen Rand for ages, have been hearing rumors and tales of how insane he was, and then all of a sudden he pops up and announces to everyone that he is going to break the last seals, and gives no hint of a plan afterwards. We (as readers) know Rand is to be trusted, but why should they when he has given them no reason to do so? To them, he could very well be insane. I am not a big Egwene fan but really, in this she was in the right; there was no reason for her to follow along with Rand.

 

And considering everyone has been trying their best to stop the seals from being broken for the entire series, I imagine breaking them is a pretty big deal :P The Dark One may not be free, but he has already shown his touch on the world and thats with some seals remaining. Whats going to happen when there is nothing?

 

There is also that one little issue of Rand having zero idea how to seal the bore. At this point there is no plan, he i just hoping Min will come up with an answer for him. Wolf is entirely looking at the situation from a readers perspective applying everything we know, that is most certainly not the case with the AS in world. Also for the record contrary to what was said above even Nynaeve is not sure of the situation, she has admitted Egwene could be right.

[XoMeltdownoX]

Strange things happen to probabilities when infinity gets involved, such as The Infinite Monkey Theorum. So the chances of him breaking free are actually closer to definite because there are an infinite amount of chances to him to attempt it.

 

 

but if there has already been an infintite number of ages, wouldnt he have broken free already if he had the chance? it kinda leads to a paradox. he can only succeed once. but there have been an infinite number of ages in the past and there will be in the future unless he breaks free, but from what I understand, even a 0.000000000000000001% chance of breaking free each age would mean he breaks free an infinite number of times. but he can only break free once. yet he hasn't. so either there arn't an infinite number of ages, the wheel of time laws of physics and cosmology are weird, or I'm making a mistake somewhere. I'm going with the second option.

 

There's a fourth option: the maths of probabilities deal withpossible outcomes.

 

Consider that old favourite of maths teachers everywhere, the sock drawer containing p socks of one colour (say, red) and q socks of another colour (say, blue). The question is asked: what is tha probability of taking a red sock from this drawer; and the answer is, it'sp divided by the total number of socks. (You can put that sock back now or it makes the maths untidy ) Now you are asked: what is the probability of taking a green sock from the drawer? The answer is 0, because it's impossible - there are no green socks in the drawer!

 

I therefore conclude that since the DO has not broken free despite having had an infinite number of opportunities to do so, it is simply not possible for It to break free at all. It has lost its green sock.

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang.

[Luckers]

I think what's kinda silly is Egwene and all the Aes Sedai thinking Rand is crazy to want to break the seals. It's like they don't stop to consider that Rand isn't going to free the Dark One completely, just re-open the bore the same way it was from the drilling of the bore down to the sealing. Yeah, it sucked, but the world didn't come to an end and the Dark One didn't break free.

 

Will bad things happen when he breaks the seals? Undoubtedly, but not as catostrophically as the Aes Sedai seem to think. It's like if you break a hole in a piece of sheat rock, then you patch it. If your patch breaks free you don't just put a new patch over the old one, you cut around the old one, pull it out and replace it with a new patch. Do it the other way and it looks like crap.

 

Sometimes, reading ToM I just wanted to shake them all like rag dolls. Don't they consider that maybe, just maybe, there's a reason that only the Dragon can do what needs to be done? I don't seem to recall the part of the Prophecies that says the alimighty busybodies of the White Tower would save the world. By not trusting Rand to do what must be done she's basically doing the same thing Elaida did, just using politics instead of more direct methods. I think it will end up just as bad as it did for Elaida. Let's see, all the leaders of the nations show up at FoM and the Dragon, the prophesied savior, and the most powerful ta'veren ever known says "this is how it must be." Do you really think people are going to go: "Oh, well I'll just listen to this group of arrogant hens that can just barely keep away from each other's throats instead of the guy who is supposed to save us all." I swear the only ones with any sense at all seem to be Cads and crew and Nynaeve. And now, I'm not an Egwene hater, in fact I love Egwene as a character. It's just this one particular thing really cheeses me off. Like the White Tower is the ultimate authority on every damn thing in the world when it clearly isn't, by any stretch of the imagination and it's been demonstrated again and again throughout the series.

 

Sorry, /rant off. I'll now return you to your regularly scheduled forum topic.

 

Honestly it felt to me as if Brandon was reaching in that scene. He had the need to create drama and thus the Amyrlin's Anger, and went for the easy, plot driven, motivation.

[Maleshub]

I think what's kinda silly is Egwene and all the Aes Sedai thinking Rand is crazy to want to break the seals. It's like they don't stop to consider that Rand isn't going to free the Dark One completely, just re-open the bore the same way it was from the drilling of the bore down to the sealing. Yeah, it sucked, but the world didn't come to an end and the Dark One didn't break free.

 

Will bad things happen when he breaks the seals? Undoubtedly, but not as catostrophically as the Aes Sedai seem to think. It's like if you break a hole in a piece of sheat rock, then you patch it. If your patch breaks free you don't just put a new patch over the old one, you cut around the old one, pull it out and replace it with a new patch. Do it the other way and it looks like crap.

 

Sometimes, reading ToM I just wanted to shake them all like rag dolls. Don't they consider that maybe, just maybe, there's a reason that only the Dragon can do what needs to be done? I don't seem to recall the part of the Prophecies that says the alimighty busybodies of the White Tower would save the world. By not trusting Rand to do what must be done she's basically doing the same thing Elaida did, just using politics instead of more direct methods. I think it will end up just as bad as it did for Elaida. Let's see, all the leaders of the nations show up at FoM and the Dragon, the prophesied savior, and the most powerful ta'veren ever known says "this is how it must be." Do you really think people are going to go: "Oh, well I'll just listen to this group of arrogant hens that can just barely keep away from each other's throats instead of the guy who is supposed to save us all." I swear the only ones with any sense at all seem to be Cads and crew and Nynaeve. And now, I'm not an Egwene hater, in fact I love Egwene as a character. It's just this one particular thing really cheeses me off. Like the White Tower is the ultimate authority on every damn thing in the world when it clearly isn't, by any stretch of the imagination and it's been demonstrated again and again throughout the series.

 

Sorry, /rant off. I'll now return you to your regularly scheduled forum topic.

 

Honestly it felt to me as if Brandon was reaching in that scene. He had the need to create drama and thus the Amyrlin's Anger, and went for the easy, plot driven, motivation.

 

At first glance, the Amyrlin's anger was caused more by Rand's intention to just leave without permission, rather than the issues at hand. He provoked Egwene to near insult, which she couldn't stand in front of all assembled Aes Sedai. But on the main issue, breaking the seals, she didn't understand why Rand is about to break the seals, and hoped to hear his plan post-breaking. But she was disappointed to hear from him that he has no plan yet. So, she respected his wish for a conference in a month's time in the Field of Merrilor.

 

In the meantime, we haven't learned that Rand has reached a conclusion on how to seal the Bore; and Egwene is planning for the eventuality that Rand might break the seals without actually having a plan to seal them ... and that is try to convince him not to break the seals till he actually knows what he needs to do afterwards.

[master]

The probability is small, but it exists. It is well outside the bell curve. If graphed as a function, the curve approaches the line as an assymtote and is essentially tangential to the line towards infinity, but can never cross the line at zero. Therefore I conclude that Ishy is correct. It is all fine and well to say there are no beginnings or ends to the WoT, but realistically there was a True Beginning where the DO was locked out of creation. There must also be an end. It is impossible for me to envision existence without a Big Crunch or Big Freeze to accompany a Big Bang

 

well there could be an infinite number of ages, its fantasy, as long as it has a reasonable explanation it doesn't really need to make sense [up to a certain point].

 

but I would say its more likely that there aren't an infinite number of ages. but even if this is the case. the chances of losing would still be minute considering the mentions moriden has made of past ages. which there seem to be a lot of.

[Andrew Coleman]

There's always the chance that humanity wont care enough or be able to prevent him from taking over

[TristanWebb]

If you get bitten by a snake, there is antivenin that will make you perfectly healthy 100% of the time (for specific snakes at any rate). Does this mean you should go wandering around a snake pit with no shoes on, then go have a beer after you have been bitten 10 times? No, just because there is a solution to the problem doesn't mean you don't have to use that solution.