Merrilor: A Big, Fat Red Herring

[AshaShan]

Its no coincidence that the capitals of the two rulers most likely to oppose Rand are being attacked as the meeting at Merrilor is taking place and their main armies are gone. Egwene has been played, both by Rand and by the Pattern. When news of the White Tower's imminent fall and Caemlyn's peril arrive he will refuse to send his people to reinforce Egwene and Elayne's unless they agree to fall in line behind him. Just as he did with the Borderlanders.

[DemandredFO]

I can see him doing that to Egwene but not Elayne. Besides, none of the borderland AS knew Travelling, but the AS with Egwene do. Unless Rand blocked travelling with weaves, he can't stop them. The ultimate irony would be Mat get's stuck defending the Tower from the Shadow because while the Seanchan make take the tower, I believe the Shadow is on its way. Also, I believe Ebou Dar will be attacked and this may be how Rand makes peace with the Seanchan. Perrin is the most likely to help defend Ebou Dar since he had an alliance with Tylee. She also quoted that prophecy to him, when the Fox(Mat) marries the raven(Toun) thus are the last days know. When the Wolfking carries the hammer thus are the last days known.

[Wantanswers]

none of the borderland AS knew Travelling

Rand promised to give them travelling if the rulers gave him an oath. We can assume they did.

 

The ultimate irony would be Mat get's stuck defending the Tower

Don't see that will happen. Perhaps Rand will be held captive in the WT, but then Perrin is the man to free him, because of Mins' vision.(the second time)

 

Perrin is the most likely to help defend Ebou Dar since he had an alliance with Tylee.

Perhaps they will fight together, but then I think it will be in Tar Valon to free Rand.

 

Also, I believe Ebou Dar will be attacked

This might happen, because Ebou Dar will almost be undefended if the EVA is heading for Tar Valon. But Tear and Illian are undefended as well. Of Tear we know there are 4 Portal Stones and a Waygate in the neighbourhood. If the Dark Forces decide to strike tomorrow, it will become a rough day.

[Lacanos]

My problem with what you've done here is you've given us a list of plotlines that need to be resolved and said "therefore FoM can't happen the way we think".

No, I've listed a bunch of urgent problems that are incredibly likely to distract the people at Merrilor. I noticed you skipped most of them.

No, I've addressed all the ones you bring up in the OP.

 

For another thing, Caemlyn was being attacked around the same time - presumably not too long after dark. Maybe around midnight, and the sun goes down a little earlier in Caemlyn than at Merrilor.

Let's begin with this. It's entirely plausible that this attack will not involve Elayne or Rand

Plausible? Not at all. Elayne is queen there; she's not going to ignore it, and Rand's not going to let her attend to it alone.

Because Elayne will definitely know about it? And your assertion that Rand won't let her deal with it herself, if she is involved, seems rather unfounded. He's been perfectly happy letting her deal with stuff herself. After all, if Rand descended on Caemlyn with all his forces, it's very unlikely even a massive trolloc attack could withstand it (not to mention this falling into the "massive battle" idea you've said you dislike before.

 

Also, Tuon is planning on attacking the White Tower. Could it be that she learned of the meeting at Merrilor and decided to attack there instead? In either case, she doesn't have a dreamspike, so if she attacks the Tower on the Night Before Merrilor, word might reach them around the same time as word reaches them about Caemlyn. this could be prologue action.

 

I think this is unlikely to have happened pre-FoM - Egwene for one is already at Merrilor. Possibly after the majority of rulers have met and begun talking with Rand. After all, the meeting could well begin, be interrupted, then resume later. Again, this doesn't constitute any evidence against "Peace Aid '12".

It doesn't matter if they attack before or after - either way, they're not likely to be a part of the peace party. Rand needs them.

The point I'm making is: Rand could impose his peace on the other nations at Merrilor and get their support. From there, he'd be in an ideal situation to address the Seanchan situation.

 

 

Perrin was planning on investigating the dreamspike in Tel'aran'rhiod, and he might have been doing so concurrent with Rand's own dream. This is not likely to be a boring scene, and Slayer is not likely to be alone in guarding it this time. I expect this in the prologue - certainly before or concurrent with the earliest Merrilor POVs.

 

Furthermore, Rand no doubt realizes that a Forsaken is in control at the Black Tower, since he probably knows enough to recognize the effects of a dreamspike. He doesn't, however, know anything about the turning channelers to the Shadow yet. He might soon learn. We know that the Black Tower action is early in the book, partly because Brandon mentioned it recently on Twitter, and partly because we know it was originally supposed to be at the end of TOM. Also, TOM was originally supposed to end with all the major plotlines reunited at Merrilor, according to the outline given by Brandon at WorldCon 2009. He mentioned later that he didn't quite make it to the reunion, which means Mat and Moiraine and Thom. Everyone else important is there - the first such reunion since Tear (minus Min).

 

The Black Tower issue then. As aforementioned, this is trailing the rest of the storyline somewhat.

Which makes the situation even more desperate than we last saw.

 

That said, if Perrin was to play a major role in it I think there'd have been some indication when mentioning his camp at the end of ToM.

He probably investigated the dreamspike that night. He said he was going to in his last POV.

Fine. Say Perrin tries and fails to deal with the dreamspike. And the Androl-circle theory is correct. Then Rand comes in and deals with it after the FoM meeting. Entirely plausible.

 

There's no reason that Perrin would need to be a big player here though. Rand could, for example, enter TAR in the flesh.

He could, but will he? And if he does, couldn't it be a trap? Again, things to distract from the Peace.

 

...there has to be some kind of forum for the peace to have been made at that Aviendha envisions.

We know that, but there's no reason it has to be Merrilor, and plenty of reason to think it won't be.

What reasons? Your reasons to say it won't be Merrilor are still "other things need to be dealt with early in the book".

Reasons it is likely to be Merrilor: because there's a peace platform coming up *soon* and Merrilor has been widely trailed as the place things will be sorted. And it'd be nice to think for once the "good guys" could get things organised.

I'll happily take the point that there's no indication they will be organised, because they've been incredibly disorganised so far.

Now, if I'm being very stupid here (which is entirely possible, as I so often am), please point it out. I think the fundamental problem with a discussion like this though is that it requires multiple theories being true for any possible situation to happen. For example, the black tower has to play out one way for you to be right, another for me to be right.

[AshaShan]

I can see him doing that to Egwene but not Elayne. Besides, none of the borderland AS knew Travelling, but the AS with Egwene do. Unless Rand blocked travelling with weaves, he can't stop them. The ultimate irony would be Mat get's stuck defending the Tower from the Shadow because while the Seanchan make take the tower, I believe the Shadow is on its way. Also, I believe Ebou Dar will be attacked and this may be how Rand makes peace with the Seanchan. Perrin is the most likely to help defend Ebou Dar since he had an alliance with Tylee. She also quoted that prophecy to him, when the Fox(Mat) marries the raven(Toun) thus are the last days know. When the Wolfking carries the hammer thus are the last days known.

 

Elayne has shown no tendancy to let sentimentality cloud her political judgement with regards to Rand, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do the same. Especially if she sides with Egwene against him the very day after taking the Sun Throne solely due to his order. Why should he ask his loyal followers to fight and possibly die defending Andor when Andor has done nothing to help them in their times of need? Why, Ealyne even sees fit to horde the gunpowder weapons for her own realm rather than sharing them with the very people she would now ask to die for her! Will Rand let his affection for one woman override his responsibilities for the welfare of entire nations?

 

And while Egwene will certainly be free to return to the White Tower, unless she can persuade alot of Rand's people to outright betray him she cannot defeat the Seanchan; they outnumber her in both channelers and soldiers. Tarmon Gaidon has begun, the Borderlands are falling; will the people of the world decide to help the very human Amyrlin fight the very human Empress, or will they answer the Dragon Reborn's call to fight for the Light against the Shadow and leave the White Tower and the Seanchan Empire to destroy each other?

 

If Egwene can't turn anyone other than Elayne to her side at this meeting, then Rand will have her over the proverbial barrel when the news of the Seanchan attack hits. But will he use that advantage to put an end to the Amyrlin's meddling? Thats the question. And his having used the Borderlanders lack of Traveling as an excuse to end their meddling tells me that even in his Zen mode hes quite ruthless enough a political animal to do it.

[sleepinghour]

Elayne has shown no tendancy to let sentimentality cloud her political judgement with regards to Rand, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do the same. Especially if she sides with Egwene against him the very day after taking the Sun Throne solely due to his order. Why should he ask his loyal followers to fight and possibly die defending Andor when Andor has done nothing to help them in their times of need? Why, Ealyne even sees fit to horde the gunpowder weapons for her own realm rather than sharing them with the very people she would now ask to die for her! Will Rand let his affection for one woman override his responsibilities for the welfare of entire nations?

Keep in mind that Elayne is also bonded to him and pregnant with his children. As soon as she learns Caemlyn's been attacked, she'll insist on going back, and I don't think Rand would risk not only Elayne's but also their unborn children's lives. Whatever Elayne says or does at Merrilor, Rand would still give her as much help as he could spare--maybe some of the Aiel since they seem to have forged close ties with Andor in the future Aviendha saw.

[Suttree]

Elayne has shown no tendancy to let sentimentality cloud her political judgement with regards to Rand, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do the same. Especially if she sides with Egwene against him the very day after taking the Sun Throne solely due to his order. Why should he ask his loyal followers to fight and possibly die defending Andor when Andor has done nothing to help them in their times of need?

 

In addition to what Sleepinghour said, maybe because Andor has the largest army in the Westlands and they will be of much more use united and pointed at TG? Even a house that didn't support Elayne expressed unity on that. Andor can field over 200,000 troops.

 

KoD "The Importance of Dyelin"

 

"When Tarmon Gaidon comes, Traemane rides for the Last Battle, and we ride behind the Lion of Andor"

[AshaShan]

Re: Elayne's children. In the cosmology of TWOT a persons soul does more than their blood to determine their worth. Rand himself has memories of existing in two seperate bodies but considers himself the same person. Carrying Rand's blood doesn't make Elayne's children likely to be any more virtuous or worthy than all the thousands of children in the Borderlands that are every bit as endangered as Elayne's would be. Any daughter of Rand's has as much chance of being the reincarnation of Semirhage as she does of being Amerasu Reborn. Now, with so few POVs from the post-Dragonmount Rand its hard to judge what he would or wouldn't do, but I could see him declaring that the children of world were all equally deserving of his protection and that the children of his body could expect no special treatment. It would be pretty otherwordly of him, but I can't say he'd be wrong.

 

Re: Andor's armies. It is the Shadow they are going to be fighting regardless of whether Rand assists them or not. If Elayne isn't willing to accept the chain of command and wishes to fight on her own terms, why not leave her to it? For every Andoran who falls in the battle of Caemlyn it would be one less member of the other groups, the ones who are willing to co=operate with Rand and his forces. She herself has plot-armour, the only ones likely to die are the soldiers of Andor, and what is so special about them that the soldiers of Tear or Illian should volunteer to die in their places?

[Sharaman]

Just because I'm confused about timelines, I'm trying to recap first.

At the point ToM ends

 

1) Rand is at FoM and has just finished dreaming of Cyndi

2) Mat's timeline shows Rand sitting around with a bunch of Borderlanders in a tent? That is either the day before at Far Madding, or at Merrilor

3) Olver wins the game and reads the letter - Talmanes assumes Caemlyn is under attack

If we assume that Olver's win coincides for some ineluctable reason with Mat's escape from Ghenjei, then Mat's last vision is of Rand at Merrilor

Synching with Perrin's earlier vision of Rand, as Perrin says goodbye to Mat, this is likely.

Mat should get his lift back to Caemlyn from Grady either that evening, or the next evening.

4) Perrin is intending to investigate the Spike at BT that night when sleeping at Merrilor

%) Rand has despatched people to find Logain

Therefore BT is still under the Spike's influence.

6) The WT has not yet been attacked by the Seanchan - and, if it is attacked, we may reasonably assume that somebody would manage to gate out and inform Egwene

 

We know nothing much about Lan's timeline but the rest of the timelines seem to have synched.

 

Caemlyn has, apart from the Band, at least some of Elayne's forces. It should also have the Kin, regardless of whether it has many AS hanging around or not.

Unless it is hit by an army of trollocs, fades and large numbers of channelers, it should have enough defensive forces, especially given the bottle-necking effect of the Waygate and the defensive formation of Upper/ Lower city to hold out in a siege. The Kin have Travelling, so Elayne will be informed asap.

 

We may reasonably assume that the Darkside knows about the FoM rendezvous - too many people gathered there for a complete intelligence failure.

We may also reasonably assume that the Dark knows about Rand's intention of smashing the Seals. He's told too many people or rather Egwene has.

The Dark may also know about his intention of hitting Shayol Ghul.

Again Rand has talked to Darlin and to the Borderlanders in pretty open circumstances.

 

 

Would it make sense to hit such a huge concentration of Light forces or to do damage elsewhere?

In purely military terms, it would make much more sense to hit other places while the Light pfaffs around at Merrilor.

However, whatever Moridin's and the GLoD's agenda may be, it isn't purely military.

 

Does the Dark want the Seals broken?

It would appear likely given what the GloD has been doing (assuming it is the GLoD who's broken the other seals).

Does the GLoD want Rand preferably left alive ?

Again it appears so from various earlier incidents and Moridin's commands.

 

Would the GLoD prefer to have Rand confront him at Shayul Ghul?

We don't know this but that is the central point of His influence.

He can touch the world more effectively from there.

He might be more confident of facing Rand in a place where the physical laws are under His control.

 

In that case, it might make even more sense to ravage something else, or to just wait it out until Rand breaks the Seals and heads to SG.

 

Obviously this is not going to happen because it would be such a sensible and cold-blooded thing to do.

[yoniy0]

Two small corrections: Rand dispatched Naeff to the BT a while before tFoM, so we can't be sure what's happening there at the time of the meeting. Also, the Dreamspike at the BT might be made to affect Caemlyn as any time, so Elayne might not be notified of the assault.

[Terez]

Two small corrections: Rand dispatched Naeff to the BT a while before tFoM, so we can't be sure what's happening there at the time of the meeting. Also, the Dreamspike at the BT might be made to affect Caemlyn as any time, so Elayne might not be notified of the assault.

That's why I say she'll learn of it at noon at the latest. Grady might try to take Mat directly to Merrilor, but my guess is that he still feels obligated to open Verin's letter and that he'll want to go get it at least. At which point the problem will be discovered, if it hasn't been already. Mat himself said he needs to go to Caemlyn because he has things he has to do there.

[David Selig]

Rand refusing to help his pregnant girlfriend in a time of danger? I don't buy this at all. Remember this is a guy who has some major hangups about women getting hurt, even those who try to kill him. Unless his personality has completely changed since Veins of Gold, I don't see it at all. Unless he has some reason to believe he has to strike at exactly this time at Shayol Ghul and has to prioritise, but this seems a long shot for now.

 

And depending on what exactly the deal was with the Caemlyn Waygate, he might well feel guilty for not destroying it or sealing it in a better way.

 

Apart from that personal reasons, politically and military speaking , why shouldn't he help save the most populous city in Randland? Shayol Ghul can wait for a day, plus he really has to sort out the BT first and it's probably connected to the Caemlyn invasion.

[Terez]

Elayne has shown no tendancy to let sentimentality cloud her political judgement with regards to Rand, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do the same. Especially if she sides with Egwene against him the very day after taking the Sun Throne solely due to his order. Why should he ask his loyal followers to fight and possibly die defending Andor when Andor has done nothing to help them in their times of need? Why, Ealyne even sees fit to horde the gunpowder weapons for her own realm rather than sharing them with the very people she would now ask to die for her! Will Rand let his affection for one woman override his responsibilities for the welfare of entire nations?

Keep in mind that Elayne is also bonded to him and pregnant with his children. As soon as she learns Caemlyn's been attacked, she'll insist on going back, and I don't think Rand would risk not only Elayne's but also their unborn children's lives. Whatever Elayne says or does at Merrilor, Rand would still give her as much help as he could spare--maybe some of the Aiel since they seem to have forged close ties with Andor in the future Aviendha saw.

I find it hard to believe that he will just give her help and send her on her way, because of what David Selig said. Rand is quite irrational when it comes to protecting his women, and it's hard to see 1) Elayne agreeing to stay behind, or 2) Rand letting her go off alone. If they discover that the Black Tower is involved, which seems very likely considering Perrin's plans to investigate the dreamspike, then Rand will have no choice but to get involved. Elayne still resents the fact that he built the Black Tower in Andor, and so close to Caemlyn, and why shouldn't she?

[Terez]

Another point to consider is that Tuon said to Mat that she would make Tar Valon her capital, and some think that is foreshadowing. That obviously didn't happen in the future Aviendha saw, but most of us think that future is going to change quite a bit. Of course, she did say to Beslan something about him having the honor of ruling the land of the Empire's capital, I think. Perhaps Beslan will do something stupid again. In any case, Tuon might change the name of the city, or perhaps rename another city after Tar Valon is destroyed. Depends on your theories there. (I think Dragonmount will blow when Rand dies because he is one with the land; it just remains to be seen how much damage Tar Valon will take.)

 

Also, was Illian nothing more than a red herring for the Horn of Valere, or will they be tied together? Illian shares a border with Altara, so it remains a vital front for the war between Seanchan and Randland, especially considering that Illian is Rand's only crown, and Ebou Dar Tuon's capital. I just bring this up to give ideas as to how much might have to go down before a truce can be accomplished with the Seanchan. As for foreshadowing...I often quote this, but usually not the first bit:

 

"We're going to Baerlon," Rand said sleepily, but Mat snorted.

 

"Baerlon's all very well, but I've seen that old map Master al'Vere has. If we turn south once we reach Caemlyn, the road leads all the way to Illian, and beyond."

 

"What's so special about Illian?" Perrin said, yawning.

 

"For one thing," Mat replied, "Illian isn't full of Aes Se —"

 

A silence fell, and Rand was suddenly wide awake. Moiraine had come back early. Egwene was with her, but it was the Aes Sedai, standing at the edge of the firelight, who held their attention. Mat lay there on his back, his mouth still open, staring at her. Moiraine's eyes caught the light like dark, polished stones. Abruptly Rand wondered how long she had been standing there.

 

"The lads were just – " Thom began, but Moiraine spoke right over the top of him.

 

"A few days respite, and you are ready to give up." Her calm, level voice contrasted sharply with her eyes. "A day or two of quiet, and already you have forgotten Winternight."

 

"We haven't forgotten," Perrin said. "It's just – " Still not raising her voice, the Aes Sedai treated him as she had the gleeman.

 

"Is that the way you all feel? You are all eager to run off to Illian and forget about Trollocs, and Halfmen, and Draghkar?" She ran her eyes over them – that stony glint playing against the everyday tone of voice made Rand uneasy – but she gave no one a chance to speak. "The Dark One is after you three, one or all, and if I let you go running off wherever you want to so, he will take you. Whatever the Dark One wants, I oppose, so hear this and know it true. Before I let the Dark One have you, I will destroy you myself."

 

It was her voice, so matter-of-fact, that convinced Rand. The Aes Sedai would do exactly what she said, if she thought it was necessary. He had a hard time sleeping that night, and he was not the only one. Even the gleeman did not begin snoring till long after the last coals died. For once, Moiraine offered no help.

CAN'T WAIT!

[AquilaInfernus]

Re: the Black Tower,

 

The light side continuously complains of Logain's MIA status during ToM, and BS wished (but failed) to wrap up all the side plots before FoM. With the Dreamspike at the Black Tower it seems highly likely that NO form of message will get out. Therefore, Logain's glory is nicely set up to begin with the destruction, or reshaping of the Black Tower early in AMoL. Whether or not the dreamspike plays a role in hindering the rescue of Caemlyn depends on Perrin's action in TAR, since the Farm (back in the day) was established to be a day's ride from the nearest village. I don't think the dreamspike reaches that far.

 

I don't know if FoM is a red herring, but I certainly can't see it occurring as a 'peace pipe' event. As other posters have suggested, there are too many distractions and Shadow agents free to mess things up.

[Terez]

Re: the Black Tower,

 

The light side continuously complains of Logain's MIA status during ToM, and BS wished (but failed) to wrap up all the side plots before FoM. With the Dreamspike at the Black Tower it seems highly likely that NO form of message will get out.

Indeed, but isn't that why Androl is being developed as an important character? Obviously, his Talent for gateways is going to be important. He can't do it on his own, but obviously, he thinks that maybe he could if he had women to link with. Tarna made her arguments to Pevara based on info about linking, so they probably know the rules on what type of circles are strongest. Generally those with the best possible balance of both men and women are the strongest, though it's not always possible to do half and half. (The strongest possible circle for distribution is 37 women with 35 men - there always has to be at least one more woman than men, and max size is 72). In other words, RJ has made sure that Pevara is aware of the linking logistics, and based on Androl's Talent, this is probably the reason. It may be that Androl can only open a gateway large enough to get just that through - a message. But he's going to manage that much at least.

 

Whether or not the dreamspike plays a role in hindering the rescue of Caemlyn depends on Perrin's action in TAR, since the Farm (back in the day) was established to be a day's ride from the nearest village. I don't think the dreamspike reaches that far.

The dreamspike is adjustable - we really have no idea how far it can be adjusted - and the Black Tower is only a few miles away from Caemlyn. If I were Demandred, I'd have expanded it to include Caemlyn (if possible) just as the Shadowspawn started pouring out of the gateway.

[Suttree]

Rand refusing to help his pregnant girlfriend in a time of danger? I don't buy this at all. Remember this is a guy who has some major hangups about women getting hurt, even those who try to kill him. Unless his personality has completely changed since Veins of Gold, I don't see it at all. Unless he has some reason to believe he has to strike at exactly this time at Shayol Ghul and has to prioritise, but this seems a long shot for now.

 

And depending on what exactly the deal was with the Caemlyn Waygate, he might well feel guilty for not destroying it or sealing it in a better way.

 

Apart from that personal reasons, politically and military speaking , why shouldn't he help save the most populous city in Randland? Shayol Ghul can wait for a day, plus he really has to sort out the BT first and it's probably connected to the Caemlyn invasion.

 

Agreed, AshShan claim that Rand wouldn't help is pretty far fetched.

[AshaShan]

Well, I dont consider the Elayne thing a near certainty or anything. It depends on how "enlightened" hes become since the merging. Going on pure principle it'd probably be right to prioritise the Borderland situation over Elayne and Andor; almost inhuman I suppose, but right. After all, with the forces available to her, she has a good chance of being able to deal with the Shadowspawn attack at Caemlyn even without his assistance, and he has left her to fight her own battles before. If he made the threat however, even if he didn't intend to follow through, would Elayne call his bluff?

[AquilaInfernus]

Re: the Black Tower,

 

The light side continuously complains of Logain's MIA status during ToM, and BS wished (but failed) to wrap up all the side plots before FoM. With the Dreamspike at the Black Tower it seems highly likely that NO form of message will get out.

Indeed, but isn't that why Androl is being developed as an important character? Obviously, his Talent for gateways is going to be important. He can't do it on his own, but obviously, he thinks that maybe he could if he had women to link with. Tarna made her arguments to Pevara based on info about linking, so they probably know the rules on what type of circles are strongest. Generally those with the best possible balance of both men and women are the strongest, though it's not always possible to do half and half. (The strongest possible circle for distribution is 37 women with 35 men - there always has to be at least one more woman than men, and max size is 72). In other words, RJ has made sure that Pevara is aware of the linking logistics, and based on Androl's Talent, this is probably the reason. It may be that Androl can only open a gateway large enough to get just that through - a message. But he's going to manage that much at least.

 

Whether or not the dreamspike plays a role in hindering the rescue of Caemlyn depends on Perrin's action in TAR, since the Farm (back in the day) was established to be a day's ride from the nearest village. I don't think the dreamspike reaches that far.

The dreamspike is adjustable - we really have no idea how far it can be adjusted - and the Black Tower is only a few miles away from Caemlyn. If I were Demandred, I'd have expanded it to include Caemlyn (if possible) just as the Shadowspawn started pouring out of the gateway.

 

Maybe he can weave a gateway that uses both Saidin and Saidar! I do not dispute your hypothesis, I just want to highlight the potential for the BT to catch up to the rest of the story in a rather bloody fashion. More importantly, I wish to link Logain's MIA status to the dreamspike over the BT.

 

I personally am waiting for the revelation that is Rand finding out he's going be a daddy!

[FarShainMael]

3) Olver wins the game and reads the letter - Talmanes assumes Caemlyn is under attack

If we assume that Olver's win coincides for some ineluctable reason with Mat's escape from Ghenjei, then Mat's last vision is of Rand at Merrilor

Synching with Perrin's earlier vision of Rand, as Perrin says goodbye to Mat, this is likely.

Mat should get his lift back to Caemlyn from Grady either that evening, or the next evening.

 

Don't forget that Mat now has a channeller with him.. Moiraine. If she still has that angreal bracelet, and if she knows how, she can make a gateway for them.

[FarShainMael]

Another point to consider is that Tuon said to Mat that she would make Tar Valon her capital, and some think that is foreshadowing. That obviously didn't happen in the future Aviendha saw, but most of us think that future is going to change quite a bit. Of course, she did say to Beslan something about him having the honor of ruling the land of the Empire's capital, I think. Perhaps Beslan will do something stupid again. In any case, Tuon might change the name of the city, or perhaps rename another city after Tar Valon is destroyed. Depends on your theories there. (I think Dragonmount will blow when Rand dies because he is one with the land; it just remains to be seen how much damage Tar Valon will take.)

 

Also, was Illian nothing more than a red herring for the Horn of Valere, or will they be tied together? Illian shares a border with Altara, so it remains a vital front for the war between Seanchan and Randland, especially considering that Illian is Rand's only crown, and Ebou Dar Tuon's capital. I just bring this up to give ideas as to how much might have to go down before a truce can be accomplished with the Seanchan. As for foreshadowing...I often quote this, but usually not the first bit:

 

"We're going to Baerlon," Rand said sleepily, but Mat snorted.

 

"Baerlon's all very well, but I've seen that old map Master al'Vere has. If we turn south once we reach Caemlyn, the road leads all the way to Illian, and beyond."

 

"What's so special about Illian?" Perrin said, yawning.

 

"For one thing," Mat replied, "Illian isn't full of Aes Se —"

 

A silence fell, and Rand was suddenly wide awake. Moiraine had come back early. Egwene was with her, but it was the Aes Sedai, standing at the edge of the firelight, who held their attention. Mat lay there on his back, his mouth still open, staring at her. Moiraine's eyes caught the light like dark, polished stones. Abruptly Rand wondered how long she had been standing there.

 

"The lads were just – " Thom began, but Moiraine spoke right over the top of him.

 

"A few days respite, and you are ready to give up." Her calm, level voice contrasted sharply with her eyes. "A day or two of quiet, and already you have forgotten Winternight."

 

"We haven't forgotten," Perrin said. "It's just – " Still not raising her voice, the Aes Sedai treated him as she had the gleeman.

 

"Is that the way you all feel? You are all eager to run off to Illian and forget about Trollocs, and Halfmen, and Draghkar?" She ran her eyes over them – that stony glint playing against the everyday tone of voice made Rand uneasy – but she gave no one a chance to speak. "The Dark One is after you three, one or all, and if I let you go running off wherever you want to so, he will take you. Whatever the Dark One wants, I oppose, so hear this and know it true. Before I let the Dark One have you, I will destroy you myself."

 

It was her voice, so matter-of-fact, that convinced Rand. The Aes Sedai would do exactly what she said, if she thought it was necessary. He had a hard time sleeping that night, and he was not the only one. Even the gleeman did not begin snoring till long after the last coals died. For once, Moiraine offered no help.

CAN'T WAIT!

 

But you never quote this, which happens later on in the same book:

 

"What do you think to gain, for yourself or anyone else, by dying?.. If the Lord of the Grave has gained as much freedom to touch the Pattern as I fear, he can reach you dead more easily than alive, now. Dead, you can help no-one.."

 

.. especially as 'all [the Shadow's] eyes are fixed directly upon [Rand] now' (ToM13), so it's likely that even balefire won't help.

[David Selig]

3) Olver wins the game and reads the letter - Talmanes assumes Caemlyn is under attack

If we assume that Olver's win coincides for some ineluctable reason with Mat's escape from Ghenjei, then Mat's last vision is of Rand at Merrilor

Synching with Perrin's earlier vision of Rand, as Perrin says goodbye to Mat, this is likely.

Mat should get his lift back to Caemlyn from Grady either that evening, or the next evening.

 

Don't forget that Mat now has a channeller with him.. Moiraine. If she still has that angreal bracelet, and if she knows how, she can make a gateway for them.

Nope. She doesn't know the Travelling weave.

 

Well, I dont consider the Elayne thing a near certainty or anything. It depends on how "enlightened" hes become since the merging. Going on pure principle it'd probably be right to prioritise the Borderland situation over Elayne and Andor; almost inhuman I suppose, but right. After all, with the forces available to her, she has a good chance of being able to deal with the Shadowspawn attack at Caemlyn even without his assistance, and he has left her to fight her own battles before. If he made the threat however, even if he didn't intend to follow through, would Elayne call his bluff?

Bluffing with the bond in place, allowing for the bonded to sense each other's feelings, would be pretty hard. ;)

[FarShainMael]

If Eg can work out how to Travel from first principles, I'm sure Mo can manage..

 

..and BTW, how does she know how to do balefire??

[yoniy0]

She took a semester abroad during TGH. Supposedly, she learned it there

[Terez]

But you never quote this

Why should I quote everything all the time? It has nothing to do with my post, so why should I quote it? But we've been through this before. That's why Rand has to be balefired.