Rand and Egwene at the FOM

[jwood01]

 

I'm not even convinced Egwene was influenced at the meeting at all. Because she did what she felt was right and exactly what he expected her to do. If someone's already willing to do what you want on their own accord, your influence is irrelevant. I suspect, given all the evidence we have that Egwene is extremely strongly willed (quote almost all of TGS), she probably could deny Rand something if she felt as strongly about it as Tuon did.

 

Then, what? Low blood sugar?

 

She was dizzy for a reason, or, at least, we were told about her dizziness for a reason.

 

Maybe compulsion courtesy of one of Halima's head massages?

[Apple13]

 

I'm not sure about that. When Rand was in the Hall, Egwene was able to speak when none of the Sitters were able to. That might be a symptom of Rand pulling his ta'veren magic or it might be Egwene's will resisting him. Just because she felt dizzy doesn't mean she succumbed to his being ta'veren. When Tuon was (partly)under the influence, she was finding it hard to think, to find words other than those he wanted her to say. Egwene seemed to be quite clearheaded, and she even snapped at him when he tried to just walk away from her. Plus she didn't say anything that she didn't mean to say, or reveal any important things to him, like she would have if she was under his influence.

 

Egwene was clearheaded because she wasn't resisting what the Pattern required, or even what Rand wanted. The dizziness afterward has been described in the text as the physical symptom experienced by one who has been caught up in a ta'veren's needs. The text really is pretty unambiguous.

 

Hmm, I think I may have skipped over the "feeling dizzy" bit when I was reading it. But either way, I feel that Rand would need more on his side besides the ta'veren thing to make an effective deal. People aren't happy when they're caught up in a ta'veren's influence and then made to sign a deal. The Sea Folk are a prime example of that.

[mbuehner]

I think we forget there are two parts to the ta'veren influence- the pattern doing what you want it to do, and you doing what the pattern demands of you. In the Tuon instance, she was working against Rand attempting to turn the pattern to his will. That could be all well and good if it fit within the pattern, but I would argue it did not fit, and the Pattern's correction was the existence of Tuon and her strong will. It would have interrupted a lot of threads if Tuon bowed to Rand (instead of vice-versa if the Seanchan prophecy is sound), so despite his very best effort, it couldn't be allowed to happen.

 

The Egwene situation was far simpler- Rand wasn't attempting to bend the pattern to his will whatever, he was going with the flow of the pattern to complete the prophecies.

[Zentari]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

[Kahsm]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

 

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask. Or at least his answer would be, "it's a gut feeling". Because that's what it is. And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her, when anyone who isn't crushing on the DR would likey think that right or wrong, it sounds foolish. Furthermore, she's opposed to him breaking the seals at this moment, we don't know that she can't be convinced otherwise at the meet. But at the same time she'll plan for the worst case because she's fairly certain she won't be. Reasonably.

 

I think we forget there are two parts to the ta'veren influence- the pattern doing what you want it to do, and you doing what the pattern demands of you. In the Tuon instance, she was working against Rand attempting to turn the pattern to his will. That could be all well and good if it fit within the pattern, but I would argue it did not fit, and the Pattern's correction was the existence of Tuon and her strong will. It would have interrupted a lot of threads if Tuon bowed to Rand (instead of vice-versa if the Seanchan prophecy is sound), so despite his very best effort, it couldn't be allowed to happen.

 

The Egwene situation was far simpler- Rand wasn't attempting to bend the pattern to his will whatever, he was going with the flow of the pattern to complete the prophecies.

 

Starting to realize why it is when Terez replies to things it always seems like she's cranky, because even I'm starting to get tired of explaining that prophecies are not guaranteed to happen, they are guides. Only Min's visions are guarantees (as far as we know so far). If even the dragon reborn cannot effect some "preconceived" plan of the pattern's why does he even exist? And if everyone is bound by the pattern's plan, the how could the DO ever win since all darkfriends even the forsaken are under the pattern's "control"? And don't tell me that the DO breaks them out of it because they'd never be able to choose the DO if the pattern controls them. This makes zero sense.

[Gordar]

I think we forget there are two parts to the ta'veren influence- the pattern doing what you want it to do

 

This and similar things have been said quite often in this thread, but I don't remember reading anywhere in the books that ta'veren can consiously affect the pattern. Unconsiously yes & yes, they can become aware that it happens (& smart people, like Rand Sedai, will acknowledge this & play along, which is what we've seen when he met Egwene in Tar Valon), but actually trying to force the pattern to do something you want it to do will not work, as the meeting between Hard/Dark Rand and Tuon has proven.

 

For instance, if Rand, Perrin or Mat wanted someone to agree with them and the pattern wanted that person to disagree with them, no matter what the three main ta'veren tried, that person would disagree with them, even if that same person would have agreed had the three ta'veren not been ta'veren.

 

Of course, since

the destinies of ta'veren themselves are more strictly controlled by the Wheel of Time itself than those of an average person

it's highly unlikely they'll do or probably even want to do something the pattern doesn't want them to do.

 

If anyone can give me a quote from Loial, Moiraine, one of the forsaken, anyone else in the books who might know anything about ta'veren, the BWB or RJ himself, I'll gladly admit I'm wrong.

 

Anyway...

 

I'm wondering why people blame Rand for not talkign to Egwene. He clearly said

 

"Then meet with me at the place known as the Field of Merrilor' date=' just to the north. We will [b']talk[/b] before I go to Shayol Ghul. For now, I do not want to defy you, Egwene. But I must go."

 

So they do have a chance to actually discuss this plan. Egwene, however, doesn't want to discuss anything & she's gathering people to oppose Rand without even bothering to listen to his explanation.

 

The Dragon Reborn must see our full forces marshaled to oppose his brash intentions. If he sees this as

halfhearted' date=' we will never dissuade him from his course. Please come with all of your troops.[/quote']

 

One problem at a time. Gregorin' date=' the steward in Illian, was very hesitant to support [i']her cause[/i]—he seemed more

intimidated by Rand than Darlin was, and the Seanchan were not a distant concern for him. They were practically

pounding on his city gates.

 

What cause? If she hadn't made up her mind yet, she wouldn't have much of a cause to begin with...

 

Since Rand knows Egwene, Rand already has a vague idea of what has to happen at TG (not the details, but Min is working on that) & since he follows the Pattern's will, he knew, or would at least have suspected that Egwene would do something like this well in advance. He doesn't worry about it since he knows the Pattern obviously wants those armies there. What he doesn't know is why. He probably thinks they're there to support him & that they'll shake hands, make peace & move off to Shayol Ghul together, but the pattern might have also put the armies there to have a defensive force against the Seanchan (although neither is a certainty at this point).

 

If the armies are there to move of to SG, then they'll probably agree with whatever Rand says, as long as it leads to them going to SG. If the armies are there to defend Tar Valon, they'll probably ignore or resist Rand, no matter what he says, or he might not even get a chance to explain his point before everyone moves off to defend the WT.

[MasterAblar]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

 

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask. Or at least his answer would be, "it's a gut feeling". Because that's what it is. And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her, when anyone who isn't crushing on the DR would likey think that right or wrong, it sounds foolish. Furthermore, she's opposed to him breaking the seals at this moment, we don't know that she can't be convinced otherwise at the meet. But at the same time she'll plan for the worst case because she's fairly certain she won't be. Reasonably.

 

 

Rand already knows why the seals must be broken and he told Nyneave, so it's not a gut feeling. Since things will only deteriorate the longer they wait, it would be better to act now before it's too late.

Egwene never really had the occasion to ask the question so I hardly blame her for not asking it. However as it stands Egwene does not want to hear his reason for breaking the seals, she has already decided that he must be opposed. She isn't planning for the worst, she has already decided that the worst, Rand being wrong about the seals needing to be broken, has happened.

She has already decided that Rand is wrong, despite the fact that she knows nothing of why Rand believes this must be done. Its hard to see why she can't wait to hear Rand's reason before making up her mind.

[Zentari]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

 

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask. Or at least his answer would be, "it's a gut feeling". Because that's what it is. And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her, when anyone who isn't crushing on the DR would likey think that right or wrong, it sounds foolish. Furthermore, she's opposed to him breaking the seals at this moment, we don't know that she can't be convinced otherwise at the meet. But at the same time she'll plan for the worst case because she's fairly certain she won't be. Reasonably.

And now is that part where you explain what does this have to do with what you quoted from me.Does it relate to anything mentioned in it ?

[Suttree]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

 

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask. Or at least his answer would be, "it's a gut feeling". Because that's what it is. And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her, when anyone who isn't crushing on the DR would likey think that right or wrong, it sounds foolish. Furthermore, she's opposed to him breaking the seals at this moment, we don't know that she can't be convinced otherwise at the meet. But at the same time she'll plan for the worst case because she's fairly certain she won't be. Reasonably.

 

 

Rand already knows why the seals must be broken and he told Nyneave, so it's not a gut feeling. Since things will only deteriorate the longer they wait, it would be better to act now before it's too late.

Egwene never really had the occasion to ask the question so I hardly blame her for not asking it. However as it stands Egwene does not want to hear his reason for breaking the seals, she has already decided that he must be opposed. She isn't planning for the worst, she has already decided that the worst, Rand being wrong about the seals needing to be broken, has happened.

She has already decided that Rand is wrong, despite the fact that she knows nothing of why Rand believes this must be done. Its hard to see why she can't wait to hear Rand's reason before making up her mind.

 

But she tried to get Rand to discuss it. He was the one who refused.

 

ToM

 

"You can't break the seals," Egwene said. "That would risk letting the Dark One free."

"A risk we must take. Clear away the rubble. The Bore must be opened fully again before it can be sealed.

"We must talk about this, she said. "Plan"

"That is why I came to you. To let you plan." He seemed amused.

 

The he says he must take his leave. No further discussion on the matter.

 

We learn later that Rand is relying on Min to find something that will work out of herid fel's old books. He is totally winging it at this point. She was right to ask him for a plan before agreeing and there is nothing here to indicate she wouldn't listen should he come with a rational one aside from "Min is working on it".

[Puny]

Yeah, I always thought it was odd how Egwene, who out-manipulated the entire Hall numerous times, didn't once wonder why Rand was being so evasive.

For the same reason Egwene maneuvers around women who have centuries more experience than her: plot convenience.

 

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask. Or at least his answer would be, "it's a gut feeling". Because that's what it is. And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her, when anyone who isn't crushing on the DR would likey think that right or wrong, it sounds foolish. Furthermore, she's opposed to him breaking the seals at this moment, we don't know that she can't be convinced otherwise at the meet. But at the same time she'll plan for the worst case because she's fairly certain she won't be. Reasonably.

 

I think we forget there are two parts to the ta'veren influence- the pattern doing what you want it to do, and you doing what the pattern demands of you. In the Tuon instance, she was working against Rand attempting to turn the pattern to his will. That could be all well and good if it fit within the pattern, but I would argue it did not fit, and the Pattern's correction was the existence of Tuon and her strong will. It would have interrupted a lot of threads if Tuon bowed to Rand (instead of vice-versa if the Seanchan prophecy is sound), so despite his very best effort, it couldn't be allowed to happen.

 

The Egwene situation was far simpler- Rand wasn't attempting to bend the pattern to his will whatever, he was going with the flow of the pattern to complete the prophecies.

 

Starting to realize why it is when Terez replies to things it always seems like she's cranky, because even I'm starting to get tired of explaining that prophecies are not guaranteed to happen, they are guides. Only Min's visions are guarantees (as far as we know so far). If even the dragon reborn cannot effect some "preconceived" plan of the pattern's why does he even exist? And if everyone is bound by the pattern's plan, the how could the DO ever win since all darkfriends even the forsaken are under the pattern's "control"? And don't tell me that the DO breaks them out of it because they'd never be able to choose the DO if the pattern controls them. This makes zero sense.

 

Maybe Terez always is cranky, I dk? Without dragging Terez into this Oo, there is no need to get cranky. You are on a forum where alot of people ask the same questions over and over again, or misunderstand things and so on. Relax. The prophecies are no garantuees, we know that, I mean Ishy corrupted one so the Seanchan was convinced that the Dragon should bow.

 

And I agree with Master Ablar; her mind is already set without hearing Rand out, judging him without listening to the reasons he was gonna give her in the next meeting. Maybe that´s one of the reasons we don´t get to know now is because we haven´t had Rand´s PoV yet. We simply don´t know what he is thinking.

We having a collective crush on Rand has nothing to do with this. We could say the same about those that love Egwene, you all have a collective crush on her and can´t see straight. Although nothing say you can´t love the Dragon and Egwene.... except common sense... lol. (J/k about the last one =P)

[Puny]

Gah... double post.

[Kahsm]

Rand already knows why the seals must be broken and he told Nyneave, so it's not a gut feeling. Since things will only deteriorate the longer they wait, it would be better to act now before it's too late.

Egwene never really had the occasion to ask the question so I hardly blame her for not asking it. However as it stands Egwene does not want to hear his reason for breaking the seals, she has already decided that he must be opposed. She isn't planning for the worst, she has already decided that the worst, Rand being wrong about the seals needing to be broken, has happened.

She has already decided that Rand is wrong, despite the fact that she knows nothing of why Rand believes this must be done. Its hard to see why she can't wait to hear Rand's reason before making up her mind.

 

If, all of a sudden, someone you used to know very well said they were going to come back tomorrow with their friends and beat the crap out of you, then walked off. And you were were absolutely certain that you didn't deserve it (even though you didn't or couldn't ask why he planned to do it). Would you show up the next day, by yourself, certain that he probably has a good reason because why else would he do it? Not likely, you'd likely bring your own friends. You may need to stop him before you can even ask why he's doing it, and you can't do that by yourself. Of course maybe he'll give you a good reason like "you slept with my mother/father!" But even then, you might disagree that his reasons require such drastic action. So you'd still need to be prepared to defend yourself. And of course maybe he's just crazy now, I mean you haven't seen him for awhile. All signs point to gathering a group to stand against him.

 

And now is that part where you explain what does this have to do with what you quoted from me.Does it relate to anything mentioned in it ?

 

I apologize, I think I redirected my focus after choosing reply.

[yoniy0]

Rand has _no_ answer for that question you all think she should ask.

Well, we actually don't know if you're right. We haven't been inside his head in ToM, and he is the dude who designed the Seals. He might know, having tried that approach, that they have to be removed. Or he might not. The point is, we don't know. On purpose, I might add.

 

And yet I think you'd all argue that that should be enough for her

Not at all. We all are more inclined to agree because Fel prepared us to the idea, and it has a ring of truth about it, and we're not risking anything by going for it. But I definitely see why some might think it unwise. And I don't expect her to agree just because he's Rand - even post-Rhuidean Moiraine didn't do that. It's just - I would expect her to try understanding why he thinks it needed. And most of all - I would expect her to be suspicious of the fact that he seems ignorant of her (very understandable) misgivings. Would taking a minute to explain why he felt the way he did really hinder him that much? No, it wouldn't.

 

prophecies are not guaranteed to happen, they are guides. Only Min's visions are guarantees (as far as we know so far).

Not quite. We know for certain (unless RJ lied, in which case Min's Viewings might fail as well) that foretellings are certain to come to pass. Now, if you accept that most prophecies are simply foretellings given long ago and preserved as best people could - as Brandon said of the Essanik Cycle, for example - then you start to see why some think they must happen.

[Kahsm]

Terez

 

And I agree with Master Ablar; her mind is already set without hearing Rand out, judging him without listening to the reasons he was gonna give her in the next meeting. Maybe that´s one of the reasons we don´t get to know now is because we haven´t had Rand´s PoV yet. We simply don´t know what he is thinking.

We having a collective crush on Rand has nothing to do with this. We could say the same about those that love Egwene, you all have a collective crush on her and can´t see straight. Although nothing say you can´t love the Dragon and Egwene.... except common sense... lol. (J/k about the last one =P)

 

No hate on Terez, she knows a lot and works hard on stuff, just sounds exasperated sometimes in her posts. And the whole pattern is absolute and controls everything because prophecies must absolutely come true seems to be the cop-out answer for everything.

 

I can see how it would look that way, by her statements. I just personally feel that's the way a prudent leader would act. Hope for the best, and plan for the worst. And Rand is very much winging it, so I don't think she'd get an answer she approves of even if they could sit down and discuss it.

 

And we still don't know why Rand wants her there, which also plays into this. Does he think he can simply bend her to his will once she gather's him the rest of his army? With his (and Perrin's and possibly Mat's if he makes it) ta'veren powers? I suspect he'd be more skeptical of that now after Tuon. Though maybe he's counting on the cumulative effect. Or is this going to be a thing where he pushes her off the cliff (by breaking the seals) and then at that point she'll have no choice but to trust him since, as much as I hate to admit it, he IS the Dragon Reborn.

 

Not at all. We all are more inclined to agree because Fel prepared us to the idea, and it has a ring of truth about it, and we're not risking anything by going for it. But I definitely see why some might think it unwise. And I don't expect her to agree just because he's Rand - even post-Rhuidean Moiraine didn't do that. It's just - I would expect her to try understand why he thinks it needed. And most of all - I would expect her to be suspicious of the fact that he seems ignorant of her (very understandable) misgivings. Would taking a minute to explain why he felt the way he did really hinder him that much? No, it wouldn't.

 

Yes, I don't disagree with the plan either. I hope she does come around. I don't think she feels she has time to investigate. As I tried to get across in my fighting analogy. He said it's going to happen. If it's imminent, you need to stop it before you can start asking question or it'll happen no matter what you find out because it'll be too late. Futhermore, it was already quoted that she did want to talk about it, she even said "plan" which seems to suggest she'd be willing as long as she understood the details. Unfortunately, there are no details to give, so I can see why Rand just needs to manipulate her. Doesn't make her wrong for trying to oppose him (as he seems to want her too!)

[Guest PiotrekS]

I think that breaking the seals is reasonable after only a little thought. Sometimes when you want to fix something, especially something that must work perfectly or hold strongly, you have to do it from scratch. You don't mend a broken sword with glue and a patch, you have to reforge it. Doesn't Perrin think something similar?

 

The Seals are made with Saidin. They are being continuously corrupted and weakened by the Taint. It seems possible that what is happening to the Seals is similar to the Ways - remember all these broken bridges etc.? The Seals will break sooner or later.

 

Egwene's idea is a real folly here. When she says that Rand should seal the Bore without breaking the original Seals she in fact wants the Sealing to be done in a way doomed to fail faster then in LTT's case. It would mean that whatever new Seals Rand & co are able to create, they will from the start have a terrible weak spot - the remains of the original Seals, corrupted with the Taint. It is like patching the same torn trousers with mulitiple patches - every next patch will be weaker.

 

But Elan has a point when he says that Rand Sedai show preciously little of this huge AoL knowledge when it comes to Seals. Shouldn't he at least tell Min what he knew, what he saw at the Bore, how exactly the original Seals function? It would then be easier for her to find the missing clues in Fel's books or prophecies.

 

And I also don't think it will come to armed confrontation between Rand and Egwene - I'm as far from Egwene's fan as possible, but neither she nor Rand are stupid. Fighting among themselves with the DO and the Seanchan on the doorstep would be idiocy...

[MasterAblar]

Rand already knows why the seals must be broken and he told Nyneave, so it's not a gut feeling. Since things will only deteriorate the longer they wait, it would be better to act now before it's too late.

Egwene never really had the occasion to ask the question so I hardly blame her for not asking it. However as it stands Egwene does not want to hear his reason for breaking the seals, she has already decided that he must be opposed. She isn't planning for the worst, she has already decided that the worst, Rand being wrong about the seals needing to be broken, has happened.

She has already decided that Rand is wrong, despite the fact that she knows nothing of why Rand believes this must be done. Its hard to see why she can't wait to hear Rand's reason before making up her mind.

 

If, all of a sudden, someone you used to know very well said they were going to come back tomorrow with their friends and beat the crap out of you, then walked off. And you were were absolutely certain that you didn't deserve it (even though you didn't or couldn't ask why he planned to do it). Would you show up the next day, by yourself, certain that he probably has a good reason because why else would he do it? Not likely, you'd likely bring your own friends. You may need to stop him before you can even ask why he's doing it, and you can't do that by yourself. Of course maybe he'll give you a good reason like "you slept with my mother/father!" But even then, you might disagree that his reasons require such drastic action. So you'd still need to be prepared to defend yourself. And of course maybe he's just crazy now, I mean you haven't seen him for awhile. All signs point to gathering a group to stand against him.

 

And now is that part where you explain what does this have to do with what you quoted from me.Does it relate to anything mentioned in it ?

 

I apologize, I think I redirected my focus after choosing reply.

 

I never said that Egwene shoudn't gather all the leaders of the world. It's a good thing she did because as you say Rand might have to be stopped. It's her mindset I disagree with.

 

Put it this way: I have no problem with almost all of Egwene's actions. What I have a problem with is that she already intend to oppose him. It's not "oppose him if neccesary" for her, it's "oppose him and stop him without considering whether he might have a point". She could have done everything she has done and still wait to have more information before making her decision. As it is she has stuck with her initial reaction (which was absolutely justified in my opinion) to Rand's annoucement that he will break the seals.

[Kahsm]

Fair enough!

[Puny]

 

Yes, I don't disagree with the plan either. I hope she does come around. I don't think she feels she has time to investigate. As I tried to get across in my fighting analogy. He said it's going to happen. If it's imminent, you need to stop it before you can start asking question or it'll happen no matter what you find out because it'll be too late. Futhermore, it was already quoted that she did want to talk about it, she even said "plan" which seems to suggest she'd be willing as long as she understood the details. Unfortunately, there are no details to give, so I can see why Rand just needs to manipulate her. Doesn't make her wrong for trying to oppose him (as he seems to want her too!)

 

Maybe it´s silly to dicuss all of this when we don´t know Rand´s PoV. I can understand that Egwene feels uncertain and thinks that breaking the seals is a folly. I remember she had a dream about Rand walking on gravel and the she notices it´s the old AS-symbol he is crushing and she wakes all scared. Maybe all of that lingers in her mind. If she was willing to plan it, why didn´t she wait then. Rand said that he was gonna talk with her later.. suggesting he was gonna do it before he actually breaks the seals. Or Rand has a big revelation to make, and him aggrevating Egwene just so he can gather all AS, and leaders of the world in one place to make it.. I dk.

 

So many of the problems in WoT would be solved if people talked with each other!

[yoniy0]

Remember Rand's reaction! If you were to come to me with a worrying plan, I might be inclined to listen nonetheless. If you then dodge my questions and disappear, you can be sure that next time we meet I'll be less lenient with you. The same happened here.

[Kahsm]

So many of the problems in WoT would be solved if people talked with each other!

 

Yeah that I can't agree with you more on that. Even I admit Egwene should have gone to meet Rand herself at some point long before now. And even if the Hall would have caused her problems, she could have done it secretly somehow.

[Stitch]

Edit: I put in a spoiler for my reasoning for each group

 

The White Tower is ever divided, however they are ever quick to present a united front to outsiders - and ever slow to consider that others may know better. I believe that they are likely to maintain Elayne's initial position on the issue since she is the watcher of the seals - at least publicly. Inidividual Sedai may act separately - including Elayne who must act as a queen not just an Aes Sedai; Nyn who has long supported Rand and who worries for Lan; Rand's sworn Aes Sedai - some of whom may agree while others disagree. If Moiraine returns she may have significant impact on some elements of the tower, probably in favour of Rand's position which would undermine Egwene's support; likewise I think Cadsuane's position may influence a large number of sisters and she is probably (now) in favour of Rand's position. Personally I think Egwene may well find herself isolated by the end.

 

The Black Tower will likely be a non entity at the FoM; they have their own problems at the moment. Those in Logain's party I believe will follow Rand, while those in Taim's... well they are likely to go for whichever they think will advantage the Dark One.

 

Borderlanders (Arafel, Kandor, Saldaea, Shienar) - these guys know war, they have always been fighting it and know the type of war they already fight. Given that, they may be more likely to oppose breaking the seals... however they DO have that prophecy of their own... therefore their opinion might even more sway than normal (remembering that their ever lasting battle with the Blight is likely to gain them serious cred with the other countries) - I think they will be reserved but when asked directly will throw their weight behind Rand.

 

Aeil (including Wise Ones) - the Wise ones may like Egwene but that is nothing before their prophecies - they will look to the future of the Aiel (and whatever Aviendha states if she gets back in time will likely have a marked impact on this) and if Egwene attempts to force their hand then they will likely slap her down. The chiefs (and society heads) will listen to the wise ones a LOT, also their own leanings are probably slightly in Rand's favour, though each have their own preferences. Personally I see the Aiel as a whole facing the bleakness (which is probably reduced in ferocity by now) and the problems in the wet lands as things that will sap their strength - they will likely be of similar positioning to the borderlanders... in favour of the breaking of the seals. Whether or not their serving the aes sedai again comes into it... well i dont think so... i dont think that was an actual prophecy - but if so Im not seeing it happening on the FoM, maybe later.

 

Andor and Cairhien - Effectively these will both go the same direction; though neither is in themselves truly unified let alone both unified together! Elayne is not technically Cairhien's queen yet, in fact technically speaking one could argue that Galad has the better claim by a significant margin. Both are quite fractious at the moment (and Cairhien is ALWAYS fractious) however I think that the nobles will fall in line if a general consensus in reached among the other parties, Tear may have an unexpectedly big influence on this given their new king's love. To what extent will Elayne's judgement be purely logical in the best interests of her vassals? To what extent will she walk the Aes Sedai path in following Egwene's directives (given she is ALSO a queen, not just an AS)? To What extent will her love for Rand and her desire to forestall his death impact her decision (given she is supposedly already planning for what happens after his death)? Personally I think she is likely to be more emotional than she should (especially if her pregnancy is playing with her hormones again) and possibly overrule whatever her logic decides or perhaps make her more likely to be swayed by one side's (probably Egwene's) arguments.

 

The Two Rivers, Ghealdan and Mayene will likely have a rather significant influence on Elayne's decision making, the Two Rivers in particular as both Egwene and Rand's birthplace (over which he is now High Lord with Perrin his de facto Steward) and an area of emerging political and military power will likely serve as a major focus of consideration as people look to the rather inexperienced (politically) Perrin, who will likely be swayed more by what he considers best for his people as well as his gut feelings. With Ghealdan as his Vassal country and Mayene listening close (with the Whitecloaks likely influenced by Mayene), winning over Perrin will be instrumental (far more than Mat - even ignoring Ta'veren issues) in determining the likely outcome of the FoM. I am inclined to say he will either not be influenced by Rand's Ta'veren nature or will otherwise resist it, but that he will agree despite that (the Wolves know it is time).

 

Whitecloaks, likely to have little impact and are likely to be swayed to an extent by Mayene... still their agreement will likely be a strange shock to whoever receives it - however they have noted that they would be willing to cooperate with the White Tower and/or the Dragon Reborn. Will Berelain's relationship with Galad play into it? Possible but unlikely (he may be smitten but he always does what is right). Elayne's? Also unlikely. What about Rand's? That might make him shaken enough to be more easily influenced (remember that he dont really know what he feels for his biological mother). Personally I think they are likely to be fence sitters for the main part... but they probably do not want to wait things out given their current company... I am tipping either fence sitting or else in favour of breaking the seals.

 

Tear is quite favourable to Rand and (like the aiel) has had previous prophecy experience with their way of life being turned on its head to accomodate the dragon and the last battle. Never really in favour of the Aes Sedai, I think Darelin(sp?) might be able to ignore this historical qualm... he is not particularly in any direct threat from the trolloc hordes or the seanchan, so he may not be as quick to go for breaking the seals and I do not believe that being made king by Rand will influence his decision much if at all. I think Tear is likely to be against breaking the seals and may be able to influence (to an extent) those Cairhien nobles who do not follow Elayne.

 

Altara, Illian, Murandy (HA!), Ghealdan and Arad Doman - While the Seanchan who hold Western and Southern Randland are not present at the FoM, they are still a major issue; can these surrounding countries send troops while the Seanchan continue to be a problem? They may be more interested in waiting until the Seanchan have a treaty, so may resist moves to break the seals. Mind you murrandy probably cannot do anything to begin with and Altara is not much better really. While Illian's steward (and possibly their former King - will he be recrowned?) might have a strong influence, they appear hesitant at the moment, I believe they will be more likely to follow the tower's advice especially if their king is recrowned (which may well happen) since he likely feels a debt towards the tower, though his people have a very high opinion of Rand... personally I think Illian is the only one of these countries to have any real sway and that they will be more swayed by logic and ta'veren (if that plays into things at all, which it may not).

 

The Seanchan probably will have no part of the FoM, but perhaps we might see Rand going back to Fortuona right after (or PERHAPS right before! that would be a major coup) to secure peace.

 

The Atha'an Miere are contracted by both the white tower and the dragon - but neither of those contracts requires that they OBEY the rulings of the other party. Personally I am not seeing them as any real force in the discussion... as they probably dont have many foot troops and their ships will be of little value in the last battle itself. Heck they may be slightly in favour of breaking the seals because it gets them out of their contract with the Dragon Reborn.

 

 

At Start:

 

In Favour of Breaking the Seals:

Aiel, the Two Rivers and the Borderlanders

White Tower (Silent Minority)

 

Fence Sitters or MiA:

Altara, Illian, Murandy, Ghealdan, Arad Doman and Mayene

Whitecloaks

 

Missing in Action:

Atha'an Miere

Black Tower

Seanchan

 

Against Breaking the Seals:

Tear, Andor and Cairhien

White Tower (Majority)

 

Then I think the Borderlanders and the Aiel will make their support for Rand's plan clear, Perrin will be swayed and this will pull Ghealdan and Mayene and possibly the Whitecloaks, Tear will likely hesitate but begin shifting the same with some Cairhien nobles and MAYBE some Aes Sedai. Eventually the only ones in Egwene's favour will likely be whatever Elayne can pull off; however I think Rand will finally be able to convince her too.

 

Alternatively we might get us an early end before things are resolved (something crops up like - 'oh snap all our main cities have been burned to ash') most likely word of either the Seanchan or the black tower or the trollocs doing something pleasant.

[Sleeper]

@Stitch, well thought out post and I think you're pretty accurate in your assessment. However, I would lump Perrin in the "In Favor" group, it seemed pretty clear from his internal POVs and the dialogue about him at the end of ToM that he's going to side with Rand.

[yoniy0]

I think you guys are doing Elayne an injustice. I find it very hard to believe she wouldn't give Rand a chance to persuade her. And given that Avienhda has to make an appearance if she's to do something about the Aiel's place in the Dragon's Peace, Elayne might have her first sister urging her to reconsider as well.

 

Also, consider this - who better than Elayne (the smooth talker) to make Egwene see sense? We do know that Egwene has to eventually come around, otherwise Latra Posae's opposition would repeat itself (and cooperation between the sexes is among RJ's main themes).

[Zentari]

I think you guys are doing Elayne an injustice. I find it very hard to believe she wouldn't give Rand a chance to persuade her. And given that Avienhda has to make an appearance if she's to do something about the Aiel's place in the Dragon's Peace, Elayne might have her first sister urging her to reconsider as well.

 

Also, consider this - who better than Elayne (the smooth talker) to make Egwene see sense? We do know that Egwene has to eventually come around, otherwise Latra Posae's opposition would repeat itself (and cooperation between the sexes is among RJ's main themes).

You know, that actually makes sense.Still, it's gonna have to be one hell of a sweet talk to convince her.

[Hopefire]

I really can't see Tear or Illian siding against Rand. I think that Darlin is firmly on Rand's side, and between being firmly in Rand's camp, latent Tairen prejudice against Aes Sedai, and the letter that he sent Egwene, I think that he's going to surprise Egwene.

 

The way I see it:

 

For trusting that Rand knows what he's doing when he says that the Seals need to be broken: Tear, Illian, Arad Doman, the Two Rivers, Ghealdan, Meyene, the Union of the Borderlands, the Aiel, the Atha'an Miere, the Aes Sedai following Rand.

 

For trusting Egwene when she says that Rand is wrong about the need for the Seals to be broken: Andorian Empire, The White Tower.

 

And further, I suspect that Elayne will change her mind upon meeting ZenRand and Min. The situation will be exactly opposite what Egwene is planning on. Instead of the nations of the world gathered to persuade Rand, the nations of the world will be gathered to persuade Egwene.