The White Tower - Seanchan Attack

[gambril]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

[Erunion]

Gambril, that is not the only possible, or logical conclusion. The only reason Rand failed to defeat the Seanchan with Callandor was that he fried his own men, and failed to push his attack. Mat didn't say that it would be impossible to oust the Seanchan military, he said it would be impossible to oust the villagers. The land that the Seanchan have settled in is forever changed, no matter who rules politically and militarily.

I am not saying that the Randlander's would win, I am saying that the Seanchan Damane system is very flawed tactically, and if the Randlander's ever got enough sense to exploit this, they would destroy the Seanchan.

 

Not that they will, but they could.

What you are saying is that there is that either A: This weakness doesn't exist, or B: That there is no case that the Randlanders will ever exploit it.

Frankly, that's patently false. This weakness does exist, and the Randlanders could exploit it. They may not, in which case the Seanchan would almost certainly win, but if they do (which is just as likely, if not more so), the Seanchan would almost certainly lose.

 

EDIT:

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

That's actually a good point. Frankly, both sides could improvise, and keep doing so. Whoever improvised the most and made best use of the available tools would win.

However, the Randlanders have far more tools available to them than do the Seanchan, and the Randlanders are more likely to improvise in usage of the power (whereas the Seanchan are likely to show greater improvisation in non-power related fields, because that is their military mindset) because their channelers are fighting for themselves and thinking for themselves. The biggest disadvantage that the Seanchan have is that their Damane are not allowed to think independently, which would ultimately cripple the Seanchan in a One Power arms race.

[capuga]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

You should go back and re-read that Mat section that you brought up. He is watching the civilians spread out across the land. He is not thinking about how it would be impossible to defeat their army. He was referring to how once the civilians, farmers, craftsmen, etc are entrenched in making their land their home, it would be impossible to remove all the Seanchan.

 

And its not really fair to dismiss Rand being able to push the Seanchan back (in a battle he won, even if he didn't realize it) as a "maybe" but then use Avi's visions of a possible (and now unlikely) future as evidence.

[gambril]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

You should go back and re-read that Mat section that you brought up. He is watching the civilians spread out across the land. He is not thinking about how it would be impossible to defeat their army. He was referring to how once the civilians, farmers, craftsmen, etc are entrenched in making their land their home, it would be impossible to remove all the Seanchan.

 

And its not really fair to dismiss Rand being able to push the Seanchan back (in a battle he won, even if he didn't realize it) as a "maybe" but then use Avi's visions of a possible (and now unlikely) future as evidence.

 

 

Err, I find you to be a reasonable person and usually agree with what you say. I thought I had covered what you said about Mat in the part where I said, "The method of their arrival" sentence. I just didn't state it the way you did ><.

[Erunion]

Mark Graysons, and my, problems with what you said, is that you implied that Mat said the Seanchan army would be undefeatable. This is not what Mat said (and yes, I do trust his judgement), Mat said that it would be near-impossible to root the civilians out of these territories.

[capuga]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

You should go back and re-read that Mat section that you brought up. He is watching the civilians spread out across the land. He is not thinking about how it would be impossible to defeat their army. He was referring to how once the civilians, farmers, craftsmen, etc are entrenched in making their land their home, it would be impossible to remove all the Seanchan.

 

And its not really fair to dismiss Rand being able to push the Seanchan back (in a battle he won, even if he didn't realize it) as a "maybe" but then use Avi's visions of a possible (and now unlikely) future as evidence.

 

 

Err, I find you to be a reasonable person and usually agree with what you say. I thought I had covered what you said about Mat in the part where I said, "The method of their arrival" sentence. I just didn't state it the way you did ><.

 

Like @Erunion I thought you meant that Mat quote was referring to the Seanchan army and not just the Seanchan in general.

 

I do actually agree with you that with the way things stand now, I would expect the Seanchan to be able to conquer (sp?) Randland. Their war machine is well oiled. Randland would need to coordinate its military and channeling resources together better than it currently is. I think we'll see some progress towards this at the FoM.

[Erunion]

As the situation stands, Randland would have to adapt in order to counter the Seanchan, something they have been shown to be loath to do until recently. A failure to do so would allow the militarily and bureaucratically brilliant Seanchan Empire to conquer.

 

My point is that the Seanchan have grave weaknesses, so that if the Randlanders ever do adapt sufficiently in order to counter the Seanchan, they would win (as the Randlanders channeling force has tools that the Damane can never use).

[sleepinghour]

Damane are no match to Aes Sedai or Asha'man, not to mention any combined forces.

 

They're too much behind in channeling technology even with traveling learned and their inability to link dooms them.

 

Look what happened to Alivia facing Cyndane.

Alivia killed several Asha'man before they managed to capture her, and knows almost every way there is to destroy something with the Power according to Verin. Lanfear on the other hand has all the knowledge of the Age of Legends and even wiped the floor with Rand on several occasions. I'd say Alivia did well in actually surviving such a duel and driving Lanfear off.

 

The Seanchan have hundreds of Aiel Wise Ones as damane, at least dozens of Aes Sedai, and now Traveling courtesy of Elaida. The Seanchan-born damane live twice as long as Aes Sedai and do little else than train for battle. Nothing stops them now from making surprise visits to the Tower whenever they like and scoping up a few channelers before anyone has time to react. It's not easy to defend yourself against a foe that can show up anywhere at any time--even the middle of the night.

 

The Aes Sedai have one major advantage in linking, but are still crippled by the Three Oaths.

 

Q: There has been some discussion around the 3rd Oath and Egwene attacking retreating ra'ken... I was asking if you think she could've done the same now, after taking the Oaths (and whether you asked Maria to weigh in).

 

Brandon: We did talk about this. I think it's iffy. Depends on Egwene's mindset. I don't think most Aes Sedai could have done it. In fact, it's good her circles was with those who hadn't taken the Oaths yet...

In Avi's visions, the Tower (and most everything else in Randland) falls to the Seanchan in the end. I think the Tower's only real chance of survival is to make some kind of a peace treaty with Tuon.

[SvetSedi]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

 

I'm sorry but logically this just does no add up. I know Avi went through the Glass thingies and they showed her this possible future, but logically it does not add up. It could certainly be possible but to me it would stretch credibility to the breaking point.

 

You say that for every channeler they capture (or find within their realm), they get a damane. I disagree. The way I see it, for every 2 female channelers that come to the Seanchan they get only one (effective) channeler. Because it takes two female Seanchan channelers to create one channeling set.

 

**So that reduces the effective potential power they can apply in half. Really, it cuts their potential power by more than half because the Damain could be the weaker of the two channelers. That would mean that they use a powerful potential channeler to control a weak channeler. This would probably occur about 30% of the time.

 

Add to that, for every 2 Male channelers that they acquire, they get 0 channelers.

 

**This reduces their potential power acquisition to less than 1/4.

 

On top of that, their channelers can not use Angeral and S'angeral.

 

**I can't assign a value to this, because we do not have and estimate of how many Angeral or S'angeral are available. But I do consider it to be a significant effect.

 

Finally, Seanchan channelers can not form Circles.

 

**This again is hard to assign a value to, but many on this thread see that alone as a significant drawback to the Seanchan system and I agree.

 

 

 

As you said above, every channeler that the Seanchan capture, they gain a channeler. Well, that same technique can be used going the other way, and it has been already. Assorted Randland forces have captured both sul'dam and damaine that are currently being converted. They have not actively started perusing this action but logically they should soon.

 

Those damaine that are too brainwashed to convert, can still be used by the Randlanders, but unlike the Seanchan, they can be paired up with weak (controlling) channelers to maximize the value of the A'dam.

 

 

 

On top of that, we have seen sul'dam, that once they realize that they could be collared they choose to run away from the Seanchan forces on their own. It is not necessary to capture the enemy, just educate them. I doubt that the ones that we saw are unique. With the Seanchan system, once the general knowledge was put out there, it would be easy to start some rumors that there was a mass collaring effort coming in an area to cause a significant number of sul'dam to flee. With Traveling, they can do it easily, taking a damaine with them.

 

 

 

Seriously, there is no logic at all to the possability that the Seanchan could actually win in the long run.

It just does not ad up.

[Androl]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

 

I'm sorry but logically this just does no add up. I know Avi went through the Glass thingies and they showed her this possible future, but logically it does not add up. It could certainly be possible but to me it would stretch credibility to the breaking point.

 

You say that for every channeler they capture (or find within their realm), they get a damane. I disagree. The way I see it, for every 2 female channelers that come to the Seanchan they get only one (effective) channeler. Because it takes two female Seanchan channelers to create one channeling set.

 

**So that reduces the effective potential power they can apply in half. Really, it cuts their potential power by more than half because the Damain could be the weaker of the two channelers. That would mean that they use a powerful potential channeler to control a weak channeler. This would probably occur about 30% of the time.

 

Add to that, for every 2 Male channelers that they acquire, they get 0 channelers.

 

**This reduces their potential power acquisition to less than 1/4.

 

On top of that, their channelers can not use Angeral and S'angeral.

 

**I can't assign a value to this, because we do not have and estimate of how many Angeral or S'angeral are available. But I do consider it to be a significant effect.

 

Finally, Seanchan channelers can not form Circles.

 

**This again is hard to assign a value to, but many on this thread see that alone as a significant drawback to the Seanchan system and I agree.

 

 

 

As you said above, every channeler that the Seanchan capture, they gain a channeler. Well, that same technique can be used going the other way, and it has been already. Assorted Randland forces have captured both sul'dam and damaine that are currently being converted. They have not actively started perusing this action but logically they should soon.

 

Those damaine that are too brainwashed to convert, can still be used by the Randlanders, but unlike the Seanchan, they can be paired up with weak (controlling) channelers to maximize the value of the A'dam.

 

 

 

On top of that, we have seen sul'dam, that once they realize that they could be collared they choose to run away from the Seanchan forces on their own. It is not necessary to capture the enemy, just educate them. I doubt that the ones that we saw are unique. With the Seanchan system, once the general knowledge was put out there, it would be easy to start some rumors that there was a mass collaring effort coming in an area to cause a significant number of sul'dam to flee. With Traveling, they can do it easily, taking a damaine with them.

 

 

 

Seriously, there is no logic at all to the possability that the Seanchan could actually win in the long run.

It just does not ad up.

 

YES!!!

 

I'm liking that, Mr Spock!

 

I've always felt that the ONLY reason that the WT had not completely wiped them off of the continent was because the Queen of Fools was in charge of the WT.

 

When I read Aviendha's trip through the glass columns my jaw almost hit the floor. NOOOOO!

 

At least some here agree with me and are able to make the reasoning understandable.

[Darth Krewl]

Sure, but if they rely on the information given by those Aes Sedai they captured, they're in for a big suprise because things have changed fundamentally since then.

 

Also remember that they don't know any tricks like hiding their weaves, masking their ability and usage of travel'ing is quite new to them so their ability to gather information is limited.

 

Could be yes. Elaida's supporters at the Tower didn't know many of the things that the "powerpuff girls" discovered during the split. So, it'll be brute force vs. subtlety; brawn vs. brains then, I guess. Because the Seanchan aren't sending another small advance party this time. They're coming with everything they've got and we all saw the damage they inflicted on the White Tower during that first attack.

 

If it wasn't for Egwene, a few To'raken and Damane would've brought what is perceived to be the mightiest institution in all the Randland to its knees and they would've done it in a heartbeat. Also, let's not forget the fact that the Aes Sedai have even less intel on the Seanchan as the Seanchan have on those they call Marath'damane. In fact, Aes Sedai don't know the first thing about the Seanchan in truth, other than the use of female channelers as living weapons. So, IMO, the Seanchan still have the advantage.

 

As for the Aes Sedai not preparing, that's surely wrong. What else would they be doing?

 

What else would Aes Sedai be doing? Well, the way I see it, we have two choices here: what's in the book that we all read and speculation.

 

As for the actual contents of the book, Aes Sedai were slowly regrouping from their brief, but very painful and deep, schism and from the first Seanchan attack. We also saw Egwene passing over control of their army to the Hall of the Sitters and all of the White Tower preparing to face Mesaana and her minions. This is what we all saw them doing.

 

With regards to their concerns about the Seanchan, they didn't even suspect that it was elite Seanchan assassins who were murdering Aes Sedai within the Tower at first. It wasn't until Gawyn discovered leads related to this possibility that he started to connect the dots and informed Egwene. Other than that, no Aes Sedai was seen doing anything concerning the Seanchan, much less the possibility of a new attack (and a huge one at that) onscreen.

 

Now, as far as speculation goes, opinions are clearly divided. Some claim that the White Tower has been preparing for this very thing and, judging by your posts, I'd say you're part of this group. Others claim that the Aes Sedai haven't gotten the slightest idea of what's coming to them and that they'll soil themselves, as soon as the Seanchan hit them with all they've got. And I am part of this group. So, for the time being and till we've all read AMoL, I suppose both groups will just agree to disagree.

[gambril]

It's in these instances where I feel I'm banging my head against a wall. The evidence is all throughout the story. Rand, the Dragon Reborn using Callandor tried to push the Seanchan back into the ocean and failed. *Insert arguments here of what could have been blah blah blah, it didn't happen in the story ok?*

 

Mat the best General of any Age, has said in his POV's after witnessing the Return in Ebou Dar that the method of their arrival in itself and the sheer number that arrived in Ebou Dar alone would be incredibly difficult to just defeat them. Re-read this scene in Winter's Heart since you don't trust my judgement here. But please trust Mat's judgement.

 

And to erase any doubts whatsover, read TOM again when Aviendha goes through the glass columns. The Aiel united in 'conjuction' with Andor, the Black Tower and the White Tower all fell to the Seanchan after the Last Battle. The reason given to us was because whatever you do to their damane/suldam...any channeler they capture adds to their numbers. One of those Aiel explained this. "The Ravens were impossible to defeat. Blast that cursed A'dam"; something along those lines. So please save us all the effort and stop grasping at straws in this area, ok?

 

And if you still want to argue about it beyond this, the what if's and what could happen etc. etc. are just that. Even if they are truths, these 'truths' only last only to the Seanchan learn and improvise and then you have to keep coming up with more if's and coulds and woulds.

 

 

I'm sorry but logically this just does no add up. I know Avi went through the Glass thingies and they showed her this possible future, but logically it does not add up. It could certainly be possible but to me it would stretch credibility to the breaking point.

 

You say that for every channeler they capture (or find within their realm), they get a damane. I disagree. The way I see it, for every 2 female channelers that come to the Seanchan they get only one (effective) channeler. Because it takes two female Seanchan channelers to create one channeling set.

 

**So that reduces the effective potential power they can apply in half. Really, it cuts their potential power by more than half because the Damain could be the weaker of the two channelers. That would mean that they use a powerful potential channeler to control a weak channeler. This would probably occur about 30% of the time.

 

Add to that, for every 2 Male channelers that they acquire, they get 0 channelers.

 

**This reduces their potential power acquisition to less than 1/4.

 

On top of that, their channelers can not use Angeral and S'angeral.

 

**I can't assign a value to this, because we do not have and estimate of how many Angeral or S'angeral are available. But I do consider it to be a significant effect.

 

Finally, Seanchan channelers can not form Circles.

 

**This again is hard to assign a value to, but many on this thread see that alone as a significant drawback to the Seanchan system and I agree.

 

 

 

As you said above, every channeler that the Seanchan capture, they gain a channeler. Well, that same technique can be used going the other way, and it has been already. Assorted Randland forces have captured both sul'dam and damaine that are currently being converted. They have not actively started perusing this action but logically they should soon.

 

Those damaine that are too brainwashed to convert, can still be used by the Randlanders, but unlike the Seanchan, they can be paired up with weak (controlling) channelers to maximize the value of the A'dam.

 

 

 

On top of that, we have seen sul'dam, that once they realize that they could be collared they choose to run away from the Seanchan forces on their own. It is not necessary to capture the enemy, just educate them. I doubt that the ones that we saw are unique. With the Seanchan system, once the general knowledge was put out there, it would be easy to start some rumors that there was a mass collaring effort coming in an area to cause a significant number of sul'dam to flee. With Traveling, they can do it easily, taking a damaine with them.

 

 

 

Seriously, there is no logic at all to the possability that the Seanchan could actually win in the long run.

It just does not ad up.

 

Your logic forgot that the Aes Sedai bind themselves to a device they call the Oath Rod. This prevents them from attacking pre-emptively (Joline in KOD - "I must feel in danger first" - cue Teslyn nodding) except in the case of Darkfriends (unless I'm mistaken of course).

 

To give you an example: Lets go have a fight and let me have the first blow. I gurantee you that by me having the first blow my chances went from even odds, to 80-90% odds (I'm not hitting you with my fist btw, something a 'little' more lethal). Now multiply that by however many grunts/channelers you have in your force. This is what the Aes Sedai do to themselves. Initiative is everything in a military campaign and Aes Sedai as the "damane" of their forces can never take the initiative - the greatest initiative the Aes Sedai can employ would be a defense (Dumai Wells - cue Ash'aman walking all over them).

 

Your logic forgot to point out the differences in the Seanchan military (effecient) and the Aes Sedai military (not much information here except Gareth Byrne leads their armies). Randland has 5 Great Captains and according to Rand when he's talking to Cadsuane about the Seanchan military.. (I think it was right?) he claims all their officers are good (equivalent to Randlands Great Captians... - Iturlade was toast in the end before Rand Gateway'd him out).

 

Is the Seanchan raid on the White Tower not enough evidence to the depravity of Aes Sedai in battle? Before Towers of Midnight came out, I distinctly remember many suggestions that Egwene should train her Aes Sedai with the captured damane. She didn't. If she did, it wasn't shown to us. So until then I'll believe that it hasn't been done (Aes Sedai arrogance and all...recurring theme). Damane are trained, with the exception of those with valuable talents that lie elsewhere, to be nothing but weapons, their whole life and as something else pointed out they have at least years upon years upon years more training in combat and combat tactics - something even the Green Ajah is lacking in minus someone like Cadsuane (but she can't be everywhere and do everything). So I'll take those weapons over woman who spend their life sitting in a Tower playing politics their whole life. I'll take my logic over yours any day.

 

I stand by the statement that without a completely unified Randland (including the Black Tower...they're the only channelers who could stand toe to toe with Damane....), they would fall to the Seanchan military might. If Matrim Cauthon were there coalition General of a completely unified Randland, they would probably have a good chance, certainly the best chance they could have (good luck getting Mat to do this without him wanting some form of dimplomacy efforts first). It would be an even fight without Matrim as their commander I suppose, just speculation there really.

 

Edit: One last thing that's important I think is in KOD right before Mat ambushes the Seanchan with his 2k crossbowmen he thinks to himself something to the affect of wishing he had Bethamin or Seta instead of Teslyn because they would be more useful (Three Oaths).

[ajfurst]

On top of that, their channelers can not use Angeral and S'angeral.

 

**I can't assign a value to this, because we do not have and estimate of how many Angeral or S'angeral are available. But I do consider it to be a significant effect.

 

Finally, Seanchan channelers can not form Circles.

 

**This again is hard to assign a value to, but many on this thread see that alone as a significant drawback to the Seanchan system and I agree.

The Seanchan can't form circles as the a'dam is a sort of circle, and a channeler can't be in two different circles simultaneously. I don't remember seeing anything about any other restrictions on them using Angreal, sa'angreal or ter'angreal though.

 

Another one to add to the list though of why the Seanchan shouldn't be able to win. The damane, sul'dam and no one else in the Seanchan know how to shield dreams. Egwene and the Wise Ones should be able to yank any Seanchan, including Tuon, into the world of dreams then kill them. Egwene could do it without using the Power and breaking the 3 oaths. If Egwene was captured, then at night within a month she should in the world of dreams be able to replicate Semirhage's slaughter of the imperial family on this side of the ocean. Add in the 3 Wise One dreamers and the Seanchan should be FUBAR within a fortnight.

 

Of course for plot reasons it's not done, but it's up there with the a'dam opening trick being so easy to do every female channeler in the tower should be able to go flick, flick, flick at damane as soon as they appear and free them, that it makes Aviendha's visions of the Seanchan taking over laughable.

[blazetheearth]

The biggest disadvantage that the Seanchan have is that their Damane are not allowed to think independently, which would ultimately cripple the Seanchan in a One Power arms race.

 

I only have one problem with this. AS currently have very little concept of guerrilla warfare and as has been stated many times in the series, Traveling makes the typical defenses of this Age useless. Both sides have it now. The real question is "Why do they have it?" They did not get it through "independent thinking" on their part but they still have it. The acquired that knowledge the same way the can acquire any significant future breakthroughs. If the AS spread and knowledge of "newer-better" weaves throughout their numbers, then the Seanchan can get the same advances just by capturing ! well trained AS. The only answer would be suicide pills. As was said before, the a'dam allow the Seanchan to use their enemies weapons against them. The EVA didn't "discover" forkroot, but they immediately saw the advantage of it to perpetuate their views of society. How ling before they capture someone with the trick of inverting weaves? Eggy started spreading that one after Moggy's escape. Now that they have Seafolk damane, they can move their GreatShips with thousands of troops (or villagers) at maximum speed. With Windfinder damane there will be no need to break another ships masts, a Windfinder should be able to calm the winds as well as stir them up. Any sail bound ship could be left sitting in a pocket of utter calm, while a Seanchan troop carrier moves to attack under full sail. I would think that this would make blockading all the harbors. None of the AS know enough about weather to stop this. The EVA will move with purpose and direction, while the Randland channelers are still sending 2 here and 2 there to cross train.

 

The only way that the AS could even survive long enough for there to be an "OP-Arms Race" would be to go guerrilla, spread themselves into ajahs (notice the lower case "a") and go to ground in the free lands to complete these research projects in secret. If the insist on staying in the WT then there is now way they can defend against 1000 gateways opening in the Tower basements and grounds. With circles and such they might defend from another air strike, but not one that comes from within the halls of the WT itself. And if there is even a thought from any AS PoV about spreading the knowledge of how to remove the a'dam with a flick of the power, then please post the reference because I cannot find one. If BS has said something that leads you to believe Eggy's been training everyone to remove to a'dam, I'll take that too, but please reference it with a link.

 

We see one PoV of Seanchan in ToM. It is about attack, and using new info gained in the raid to plan the attack. What did we see in all of the PoV's from inside the Tower? Please quote to me any reference to increasing the WT's preparedness for another Seanchan attack, during ToM.

 

The only way that I can see someone believing that the AS, if left to their own devices, will survive, much less defeat the upcoming attack, is if that person is reading much more into the book than what is actually printed.

[blazetheearth]

Your logic forgot that the Aes Sedai bind themselves to a device they call the Oath Rod. This prevents them from attacking pre-emptively (Joline in KOD - "I must feel in danger first" - cue Teslyn nodding) except in the case of Darkfriends (unless I'm mistaken of course).

 

 

Shadowspawn only. DF's are as safe a multiple rapist once an AS has hold of them, as long as the DF doesn't endanger the AS directly.

 

One caveat to that would be if the AS could convince herself that the DF's mere presence or existence is a perpetual threat to the life of "her, her Warder or that of a fellow Sister." They can't even throw a fireball at a guy about to rape a 9 years old girl. Oh, they can wrap him in air, and probably beat him long enough that he wished her were dead, but she cant kill a human or Ogier, unless she believes that either her life, that of her Warder or a fellow Sister is in immediate danger.

 

Any and all Shadowspawn are fair game though.

 

Other wise I mostly agree with you. You didn't seem sure on the point though so I thought I'd provide you with the correct info before someone who disagrees with you tried to call you out on it.

[Erunion]

I don't think the Aes Sedai will do well if left to their own devices. The only evidence for the flick trick being spread was in TGS, when Eggy told some White Towerites how to do it during the raid. What people are saying here is that if the Aes Sedai ever got their heads out of their rears, they (and the Aiel, and the Windfinders, and the Kin, and the Asha'man) would slaughter the Damane as the Seanchan have several key disadvantages. (If the assorted Randland channelers voluntarily went under the command of one of the five great captains, or Mat, then the war would end before it really started, as a series of preemptive strikes could easily kill or capture 90% of the Damane while suffering minimal casualties, due to the Damane's kennel system and the nature of the A'dam)

 

White Tower supporters (of which I'm borderline, I don't like the tower, but I like what it could be and hope it becomes a true bastion of light where the denizens serve all) are hoping and praying that the Aes Sedai who learned that trick in the battle told some other Aes Sedai, who told their buddies/etc. We have no evidence that the Aes Sedai are preparing, but we have no evidence (lack of evidence isn't evidence...) that they aren't preparing either, so will have to RAFO.

 

There is no way to tell what would happen during a war right now, as there are too many uncertain factors. Would the Randland channelers stop bickering long enough to actually use their massive advantages? Would the Seanchan manage to keep the Randlanders at each others throats long enough to win? Would the Aes Sedai refuse to adapt at all under a Seanchan assault, or would they realize that they have huge advantages long enough to field them? It's really impossible to tell at this point.

 

This I will say; If the Seanchan continue to use a Damane system vs. the Randlanders, and the Randlanders actually spend a few minutes thinking before doing something else stupid, the Randlanders will win. However, there are no guarantees that the Randlanders will do anything remotely intelligent, as they very, very rarely do.

 

 

 

Note:

Mat doesn't say that the average Seanchan general is the equivalent to the Great Captains, he says that the adaptability that all the Seanchan soldiers show is only visible in the Randlanders Great Captains. As has been shown by Ituraldes brilliant, if desperate assault on the Seanchan, where he time and again managed to inflict incredible damage for the losses sustained and the odds stacked up against him, the Great Captains truly are Great, more than equal to the average Seanchan military officer. What the Seanchan do have, however, is standard military doctrine, which means that on a scale of 1/10, all their high officers will be at least a 5, while it is impossible to tell where a Randlander general will be on the scale until you see them fight.

[Darth Krewl]

Another one to add to the list though of why the Seanchan shouldn't be able to win. The damane, sul'dam and no one else in the Seanchan know how to shield dreams. Egwene and the Wise Ones should be able to yank any Seanchan, including Tuon, into the world of dreams then kill them. Egwene could do it without using the Power and breaking the 3 oaths. If Egwene was captured, then at night within a month she should in the world of dreams be able to replicate Semirhage's slaughter of the imperial family on this side of the ocean. Add in the 3 Wise One dreamers and the Seanchan should be FUBAR within a fortnight.

 

Of course for plot reasons it's not done, but it's up there with the a'dam opening trick being so easy to do every female channeler in the tower should be able to go flick, flick, flick at damane as soon as they appear and free them, that it makes Aviendha's visions of the Seanchan taking over laughable.

 

And, why would three Wise Ones of the Aiel be interested in doing such dirty work to save the White Tower? I know that the Aiel Wise Ones have a huge score to settle with the Seanchan, but would they really be willing overlook their sacred view of honor in order to commit murder in cold blood? Because this is what you're suggesting. Heck, not even Egwene would swoop as low as murder in cold blood. She considers herself "honorable", for some reason I've yet to understand, but she does.

 

As for the Seanchan not being able to win, aside from Draghkar, they happen to be the only faction in the Randland with something akin to an air force. A strike from the air that can do some serious damage on the White Tower and that, used as a diversion only, would allow them to sneak in as many Damane, soldiers, Bloodknives and other field agents via Traveling, would catch the Aes Sedai completely off-guard, as they concentrate on making circles to fend off the aerial strike, without even realizing that they're about to be ambushed from behind. The Tower would be rubble in no time and most Aes Sedai would end up leashed.

 

As for Damane being freed, well, even if they were, there's something called "post-traumatic syndrome" that any person subjected to the brutal treatment, conditioning and mind-programming that the Seanchan subject their Damane to will always suffer from. And the books clearly indicate that, even those Damane who've been free for months now, have had a terrible time trying to overcome their conditioning and programming.

 

So, unless we were to expect the Seanchan to use recently "recruited" Damane on the attack only, chances are that any Damane who could be freed (and Ishadar's post above clearly indicates that this is no given. I agree) would go back to their Sul'dam before turning on them, just like any faithful lapdog would.

[Erunion]

If the Randlanders are smart (a state of which there is no guarantee), they will simply change ownership of recalcitrant Damane until they are able to be reintegrated. Capture the Damane, use the Damane to help you escape, get somewhere safe, start de-programming the Damane. If absolutely necessary, use the Damane in battle as your own Damane (harsh and something that most Randlanders would hesitate to consider, yet if things turned sour they may be tempted to think outside the box). When the Damane is de-programmed, she is now a loyal Randland channeler.

The biggest thing the Randlanders need to do is this, free every single woman that the Sul'dam capture in battle. The Seanchan will hesitate to kill potential Damane, so you can simply reclaim them ASAP, as they won't need de-programming. The Seanchan will be forced to start killing instead of capturing, and voila! Seanchan advantage negated.

 

However, right now, if the Seanchan put everything they have into planning and carrying out an assault on the White Tower, the Aes Sedai will need a Deus Ex Machina (or Hawkwing Ex Horn/Mat Ex Luck) to survive.

[gambril]

I don't think the Aes Sedai will do well if left to their own devices. The only evidence for the flick trick being spread was in TGS, when Eggy told some White Towerites how to do it during the raid. What people are saying here is that if the Aes Sedai ever got their heads out of their rears, they (and the Aiel, and the Windfinders, and the Kin, and the Asha'man) would slaughter the Damane as the Seanchan have several key disadvantages. (If the assorted Randland channelers voluntarily went under the command of one of the five great captains, or Mat, then the war would end before it really started, as a series of preemptive strikes could easily kill or capture 90% of the Damane while suffering minimal casualties, due to the Damane's kennel system and the nature of the A'dam)

 

White Tower supporters (of which I'm borderline, I don't like the tower, but I like what it could be and hope it becomes a true bastion of light where the denizens serve all) are hoping and praying that the Aes Sedai who learned that trick in the battle told some other Aes Sedai, who told their buddies/etc. We have no evidence that the Aes Sedai are preparing, but we have no evidence (lack of evidence isn't evidence...) that they aren't preparing either, so will have to RAFO.

 

There is no way to tell what would happen during a war right now, as there are too many uncertain factors. Would the Randland channelers stop bickering long enough to actually use their massive advantages? Would the Seanchan manage to keep the Randlanders at each others throats long enough to win? Would the Aes Sedai refuse to adapt at all under a Seanchan assault, or would they realize that they have huge advantages long enough to field them? It's really impossible to tell at this point.

 

This I will say; If the Seanchan continue to use a Damane system vs. the Randlanders, and the Randlanders actually spend a few minutes thinking before doing something else stupid, the Randlanders will win. However, there are no guarantees that the Randlanders will do anything remotely intelligent, as they very, very rarely do.

 

 

 

Note:

Mat doesn't say that the average Seanchan general is the equivalent to the Great Captains, he says that the adaptability that all the Seanchan soldiers show is only visible in the Randlanders Great Captains. As has been shown by Ituraldes brilliant, if desperate assault on the Seanchan, where he time and again managed to inflict incredible damage for the losses sustained and the odds stacked up against him, the Great Captains truly are Great, more than equal to the average Seanchan military officer. What the Seanchan do have, however, is standard military doctrine, which means that on a scale of 1/10, all their high officers will be at least a 5, while it is impossible to tell where a Randlander general will be on the scale until you see them fight.

 

I think the lesson we as readers were to learn/learned from Iturlade's campaign is to show that the Seanchan learn, adapt and improvise. Iturlade cracked their ankles and retreated and cracked their ankles, all the while retreating. HIs campaigns were solely ambush and guerilla tactics. The Seanchan were more geared for a more 'fomral' type battle that they're more accustomed to. This was Iturlade's brilliance in exploiting this weakeness, but as Turak said to him his 'tricks' wouldn't work again. And Iturlade knew it in this scene in TGS. He was on his last straw barricading himself and his army in the area with those Guardians or w/e they're called to stop the one power. The Seanchan above all, learn from their mistakes and do not repeat them militarily. Mat did the same thing as Iturlade and luckily for him although unknowingly, in tandem with Iturlade's campain and Mat never thought to do anything more than get the hell out of there.

 

Their Generals are also as innovative as Iturlade was shown to be in Yulan's plan to raid the White Tower using Raken as air force, genious tactic in their age.

 

As far as the it's as simple as removing the adam via a weave of air. I would like to think it's possible for the damane/suldam team to innovate and work out some anti-weave of air to prevent this simple tactic. The only thing I can come up with that would stand a chance against the adam (remember any defeats they suffer, any channeler they capture gets an adam around her neck and integreted into their forces for future use) would be to pre-emptively form or be in a circle already.

 

My theory and reasoning is based on the laws of the adam and circles. The best evidence to draw upon for this idea/theory I've had comes from TPOD when Elayne and Nynaeve link and explain circles to the Sea Folk as well as Elayne's thoughts when she removes the adam to go to from a circle when she's in Salidar in LOC when the bubble of evil strikes. Anyways, it goes like this (I'm sure there are holes): Simply form a circle and as long as you are in a circle already then you are 'immune' to the adam. The adam forces you into a circle, but what we're told is that when you join a circle, that circle cannot end until the woman in charge of that circle releases you. So if a suldam attempts to collar a channeler already in a circle, the adam will be prevented from forming that link with the marathdamane since she's already in a circle. Whether this is completely true, I don't know. I wish I had seen the Q & A Brandon opened on TOR before it was closed to ask him this very question . The only thing that would make this untrue as far as I can see would be that regardless, the adam will override their circle and break it.

 

You can also think of it akin to what would happen if a damane with an adam on her neck had an adam herself and tried to collar another channeler. Is the damane's adam going to break her circle with her suldam and make a new circle or is it going to fail because she's already in a circle? I lean towards it failing since she's already in a circle.

[cgk84]

To me if it comes to the forces of Randland needing to smash the Seanchan or bring them to heel before the Last Battle they would need not only to meet them in battle and defeat their forces but they would need a large scale uprising of Randlanders in conquered lands, including Randlanders in the Seanchan military either deserting or turning on them when feasible. It'd be hard for the Seanchan to fight the mother of all battles if behind their lines some key Raken bases were over-run by Dragonsworn, storage warehouses in Amadicia burned by Whitecloak survivors, Seanchan barracks in Ebou Dar having their water supply poisoned by vengeful Altarans, so on and so forth. The Seanchan wouldn't be able to divert forces from the main battle to put this down without hugely weakening themselves.

 

How the Randlanders would organise such a co-ordinated rebellion across multiple conquered nations simultaneously is another matter. Though it has been a while since we've seen a mass outbreak of Dragonsworn.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and if all else fails, pikes. Lots and lots of pikes will win the day. It's only a matter of time until we get our time to shine

[balefired-ed2]

The Seanchan win. They are vastly more organized as shown by their strict adherence to 36-2903.

[Perrin is Hot]

The Seanchan don't have the Fox-head medallion. Once Elayne figures out how to reproduce it 100% then the Seanchan lose. That's assuming Matt lets her borrow it again, which I think he probably will.

[Durinax]

The Seanchan don't have the Fox-head medallion. Once Elayne figures out how to reproduce it 100% then the Seanchan lose. That's assuming Matt lets her borrow it again, which I think he probably will.

without a proper factory to produce them a long with the right people to create then

[Perrin is Hot]

The Seanchan don't have the Fox-head medallion. Once Elayne figures out how to reproduce it 100% then the Seanchan lose. That's assuming Matt lets her borrow it again, which I think he probably will.

without a proper factory to produce them a long with the right people to create then

 

 

Elayne seems pretty adept at producing copies when she has the process figured out. How many TaR rings has she made now? She may not necessarily have to make enough for all the Aes Sedai, perhaps just enough for their heavy hitters would do.

[Jillain Sanche]

To the question of whether or not Egwene has been preparing the WT for the next attack--although we have seen no preparations since the first attack, what do you think that was but preparation? She taught the Novices and Accepted IN COMBAT!

I agree that we should have seen more; at least some discussion in the Hall or among Sitters of strategy and tactics for the next attack, however.

 

We can all see the threads of the weaving of the story, but Jordan/Sanderson will again surprise us as to how the story plays out. I like the idea that Mat's being there to retrieve the Horn may be a pivotal moment (but I have liked other ideas that did not pan out LOL).

 

The history of the Breaking, of the taint that drove the male AS insane, and everything that happened afterward, had its impact on not only the WT but on every nation in Randland. Every institution deteriorated to some degree. But the taint was purged, and Rand is AS too, and the Dragon will, I believe, have a positive influence on rebuilding the AS again as it should be: Both women and men, all dedicated to serving as once was.

 

Ah, those Seanchan. Avienda's experience of what might be was horrifying, but it clearly means it does not have to play out that way. I don't think the Seanchan want to enable the DO to win after all, and things will have to come to a head with them.

 

So much going on in WoT, that it seems incredible all the ends of the threads can be completely tied off in only one more book!