[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[Tigraine]

Ugh!  This game is making me crazy and suicidal...I'm about to lead a lynch on myself  :D

[Verbal32]

You are a little to eager to die Rey, and I will not oblige until I am sure you won't harm the town more in your passing.

 

Exactly.  His last handful of posts smack of Jester.  I'm still on the Kivam lynch.

[Naeann]

Rey don't play the sympathy card.  You are a better player than that.  Even Alys makes mistakes in the mafia games.  None of us are immune to it.  It really does just seem like a pointless role.  I'd have just as much chance as that role of determining if someone was mafia or not.  I could say right now that Verbal is mafia and there's a 50 percent chance I'm right. (or wrong)

[Lavinya]

I think the timing of your reveal Rey is disturbing...we're debating the folly of Pandy's reveal, then out comes yours? I agree, it's almost like you want to be lynched, and people who want to be lynched scare me. I don't know, I suppose if you survive the night we will see what you found, but then, even your find can't be trusted. I don't like it!  :P

 

Since I doubt you'll be lynched today because of the jester scenario, my vote for Kivam still stands as is.

[Alys Kinch]

We don't know if there is more than one finder/cop in this game. And if you reveal before you are about to die, then immediately everyone thinks your scum trying to save yourself.

You guys must not play using much logic…

 

Go read the roles then come back and tell me if there may be another cop/finder type role in the game.

 

Second, if you die in a full reveal (remember everything except mother’s maiden name) then your information is seen as useful after you die, so… the scum saving scum’s self is not a very useful argument here.

 

 

PS if another player asserts that we've done nothing, and it's still day one, they should go back and read.

 

2 reveals

1 plot for mass reveal

2 suspected groups forming up with maybe a third

 

This is day...3 or 4 stuff right here.

 

Also, let's get the vote, get the night info and get going so we have concrete instead of suspected info.

 

PPS Quit with the Jester. Check the role list. There isn't one.

 

OMG that's 4 tries...

[Reyoru]

Go read the roles then come back and tell me if there may be another cop/finder type role in the game.

 

It says that Cop is a possible role. There may be, or there may not be.

[Kivam]

3 things:

 

1) Alys, saying "I have no idea why he didn't cover it better" is the same as saying "he should have covered it better" - I.e. He should never have revealed

 

2) Rey, that was utterly ridiculous

 

3) That said, a 50% finder is not useless unless and until half the players in the game are scum.  Numbers, people.  If we assume 7 scum roles in a 21 player game, then a random lynch has a 66% chance of hitting a townie.  Anyone Rey views, on the other hand, has a 50% chance of being a townie.  Obviously, the more scum we kill the more useful his power gets (as the percentage of scum in the game declines), while the more townies die, the less useful it becomes (as the percentage increases)

[Kivam]

1 more thing - his power becomes more useful if he doubles up, since if he gets the same read twice there's a 75% chance its accurate

[DPR]

I <3 Alys for saying "OMG that's 4 tries..."  ;D

[Alys Kinch]

Alys, saying "I have no idea why he didn't cover it better" is the same as saying "he should have covered it better" - I.e. He should never have revealed

Not exactly. "I have no idea" could mean "I don’t know" (top choice here since well it's the same thing and blunt is me) as well as "I think he should hidden it better" and "I think he should have" could mean "He never should have revealed", but that’s a lot of assumption between what you said and what you say you meant. I could conclude that if you said you like dark colors you are depressive, but that’s another assumption… And could be totally wrong. Say what you mean and don’t hide meanings in maybes and could bes.

 

That said, a 50% finder is not useless unless and until half the players in the game are scum.  Numbers, people.  If we assume 7 scum roles in a 21 player game, then a random lynch has a 66% chance of hitting a townie.  Anyone Rey views, on the other hand, has a 50% chance of being a townie.  Obviously, the more scum we kill the more useful his power gets (as the percentage of scum in the game declines), while the more townies die, the less useful it becomes (as the percentage increases)

50% odds don’t get better or worse with lower numbers. 50% is 50% as it’s a per view basis. Doubling up is more useful but takes double the time for return. It's not very effective, then.

 

 

[Alys Kinch]

I <3 Alys for saying "OMG that's 4 tries..."  ;D

The OMGUS got me. :D

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I also find it a little suspicious since Kiv suggested revealing roles and people has already he hasn't said something to the affect of. "Since a few people have already revealed I am the ...... now if the rest of you will follow suit we can narrow down who is who and get to scum hunting."

 

 

[Alys Kinch]

He's already went back on that... I doubt he'll change that till later. But I notice we've not seen the last of all this early role revealing...

[Alys Kinch]

PS Was Rey the other one at the beginning agreeing with Kivy and Pandy about the early reveals?

[Reyoru]

PS Was Rey the other one at the beginning agreeing with Kivy and Pandy about the early reveals?

 

No.

[a pale tanned lover]

PS Was Rey the other one at the beginning agreeing with Kivy and Pandy about the early reveals?

That was me.... ;D

[Alys Kinch]

Thanks, guys.

[Far Dareis Mai]

...buh...

 

Well, I suppose that is one way to liven the game up.

 

In the interest of self-preservation m'dears, let's avoid any more role reveals unless your life is on the line. Getting reamed from Alys and others is not a terribly desirable event, eh? :P

 

Rey, if you don't want to play the game, or you don't have time, then instead of basically committing suicide, you should probably go to DPR and allow him to find a replacement for you. That way you are not putting the game in jeopardy, and you won't feel as guilty later on.

 

 

[Talmanes]

God am I the only one who thinks that everyone is reading way to much into the whole Rey thing?

Yeah his reveal is kind of pointless, but unlike Pandy he doesn't seem to just be trying cause chaos!

According to him he just wanted to get things going, which sounds good right about now.

And Pete weren't you trying to do the same thing, get things going, when you voted for yourself at the beginning of the game? But now you are jumping down his throat about him trying to get himself lynched. At least he didn't actually vote for himself. And I know it is just your tradition but still. Also like it has been pointed out there is no Jester.

If his reveal was true (and I'm kind of assuming it is because why else say he has a crappy role?) then he is of some use, but not enough that the mafia would target him, in my opinion.

As annoying as Pandy is at this point, I don't see him being scum, but am really thinking he is a cult leader. I'm also thinking that he is invincible either during the day or at night now that someone said his phrase, which is why I am not voting for him. Also as much as I would like to get a lynch over with, I'm more suspicious of others, so I won't vote Kivam unless it gets really long.

I'm busy now so more later.

[Kivam]

I also find it a little suspicious since Kiv suggested revealing roles and people has already he hasn't said something to the affect of. "Since a few people have already revealed I am the ...... now if the rest of you will follow suit we can narrow down who is who and get to scum hunting."

 

Then you aren't paying attention - I already said I was wrong and given the numbers, reveal would be a bad idea. 

 

And even without that, I was saying I would reveal only if there was a general agreement and wasn't going to reveal otherwise.

 

Sorry, Pete, but this is just clumsy.

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I felt like I was on a roll to.

 

Back to the drawing/planning board.

 

And Talmanes there may be no jester in the conventional sense, but knowing Wes he has added a few twists and a jester clause in a role is not to outlandish knowing how he loves his twists and turns.

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

Also Kiv I don't remember your post saying your numbers were wrong, I may of missed it, I will be doing a reread, of all of these pages. Fun!!!

[Kivam]

Alys, saying "I have no idea why he didn't cover it better" is the same as saying "he should have covered it better" - I.e. He should never have revealed

Not exactly. "I have no idea" could mean "I don’t know" (top choice here since well it's the same thing and blunt is me) as well as "I think he should hidden it better" and "I think he should have" could mean "He never should have revealed", but that’s a lot of assumption between what you said and what you say you meant. I could conclude that if you said you like dark colors you are depressive, but that’s another assumption… And could be totally wrong. Say what you mean and don’t hide meanings in maybes and could bes.

 

Wasn't hiding it - thought it was perfectly clear ("I have no idea why you did X" is pretty critical).  But maybe its just a case of "I know what I mean so it's clear to me."  Did anyone else see ambiguity there?  

 

 

That said, a 50% finder is not useless unless and until half the players in the game are scum.  Numbers, people.  If we assume 7 scum roles in a 21 player game, then a random lynch has a 66% chance of hitting a townie.  Anyone Rey views, on the other hand, has a 50% chance of being a townie.  Obviously, the more scum we kill the more useful his power gets (as the percentage of scum in the game declines), while the more townies die, the less useful it becomes (as the percentage increases)

50% odds don’t get better or worse with lower numbers. 50% is 50% as it’s a per view basis. Doubling up is more useful but takes double the time for return. It's not very effective, then.

 

You're missing my point.  I'll try it with an example:

 

Pretend there's a bag of marbles, 50% black and 50% white.  You want to pick a black marble.  Reach your hand into the bag, and before you pull your hand out with a marble, I tell you that there's a 50% chance the marble is black.

 

Have I given you useful information?  No - because you already knew that.

 

Now, change the conditions.  Same bag, but now 15 out of 20 marbles are white.  Reach your hand in and grab one at random, and you have a 25% chance of getting a black marble.  If I tell you that the marble you picked has a 50% chance of being black, then it's twice as likely as any of the other marbles in the bag to be black. Is that significant?

 

Well, you tell me.  If I offer you $1,000 to hand me a black marble in one shot, do you give me the one in your hand?  Or swap it for one of the other marbles?

 

Bottom line: if there are fewer than 50% scum, then anyone viewed by Rey (whether the result is townie or scum) has a higher likelihood of being scum than any randomly selected other player.

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

I disagree, because using that same logic if you choose a white marble which there are 15 out of 20 in that scenario and are told it is black, you have just cost yourself a white marble.

 

Now things are never that simple, because you have to factor in roles, some are more valuable than others and if Rey chooses a random "marble" and gets black and in fact the marble is white, and a very powerful role, then we have lost big.

 

Also if Rey chooses a black marble and get's a white reading then it is useless. A fifty percent finder is useless, the only thing they can do is be a vote on a lynch that might target a scum.

 

All this talk of marbles is causing me to lose mine Kiv.

[Hybrid]

Exactly.  His last handful of posts smack of Jester.

 

This.

 

Completely unprompted role reveal and then the sympathy play.  Both moves that have already been criticized as scummish ( ;D ) earlier in this game.  I'd rather stay away from a lynch on him until we get further information.