Now this disturbed me - numbers

[HighLordXanthus]

Shadar Logath being described differently is easy.  That could be described away as a simple point of reference.  Possibly when coming at the city from different directions would make all the difference depending on changing terrain.  It is on a river bank, so it would stand to reason that it is nestled in a slight river valley.  So if coming up thru the valley the trees would obsure it, but if coming over the rise of the valley it would all be down there below you.  Then there are flood plains that would not be heavily treed ect.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Sorry I wasn't more clear.  What I meant to suggest is that we should base our estimates on the 17th century galleon, a multi-function design, rather than a pupose-built Man'o'War.

 

My information is that most galleons were ships of about 500 tons displacement.  The so-called Manilla Galleons could range up to 2000 tons displacement.  My guess would be that these were suitable only for sheltered-water inter-island trading.  I could be wrong about that.

 

for bigWalt -

 

What you suggest seems to be a form of Delving, ie the ability to select for and extract salt in a given quantity of water.  Delving is classed as a Talent and is very rare.  The only people we've seen who have demonstrated the Talent for Delving are Egwene and Rand.

[Mr. Micawber]

Sorry I wasn't more clear.  What I meant to suggest is that we should base our estimates on the 17th century galleon, a multi-function design, rather than a pupose-built Man'o'War.

 

My information is that most galleons were ships of about 500 tons displacement.  The so-called Manilla Galleons could range up to 2000 tons displacement.  My guess would be that these were suitable only for sheltered-water inter-island trading.  I could be wrong about that.

 

for bigWalt -

 

What you suggest seems to be a form of Delving, ie the ability to select for and extract salt in a given quantity of water.  Delving is classed as a Talent and is very rare.  The only people we've seen who have demonstrated the Talent for Delving are Egwene and Rand.

 

Um, the Manila Galleon went from Manila to the western coast of Mexico.

 

But there were, again, very, very, very few of them.

 

The thing is, every Seanchan ship appears to be a junk, more or less. The Galleon, as simplistic as it might seem, was the end result of hundreds of years of innovation in ship design that combined Northern European, Mediterranean, and Arab advances; essentially the fusion of the Carrack and the Caravel.

 

I can understand the ships surviving for a generation because of damane preservation techniques, and I can understand large ships.

 

But I cannot see large ships *capable* of transoceanic voyages, and equipped to handle the sheer mass of the Corenne.

 

Great Britain, France, Spain, and the Netherlands built large transoceanic sailing ships (not even to get into the foundries necessary for their ordinance) that required ridiculous facilities and quasi-industrialization that we have no evidence exists in Seanchan. Moreover, these nations had extremely strong programs for navigational and other technical training absolutely essential to the kind of voyages the Seanchan made.

 

But when we get a POV or at least secondary character in the form of Egeanin, we get a lot bovine fecal matter using nautical terms, but even in her head, we don't hear about the kind of sophistication necessary for a voyage of exploration with that kind of fleet.

 

If the Return were reversed, that is to say, if it came from a Hawkwing-daughter-conquered Shara rather than Luthair's Seanchan, then I could believe it, because the Corenne would go thousands of miles, but stay fairly close to land.

[Muad Cheade]

Sorry I wasn't more clear.  What I meant to suggest is that we should base our estimates on the 17th century galleon, a multi-function design, rather than a pupose-built Man'o'War.

 

My information is that most galleons were ships of about 500 tons displacement.  The so-called Manilla Galleons could range up to 2000 tons displacement.  My guess would be that these were suitable only for sheltered-water inter-island trading.  I could be wrong about that.

 

for bigWalt -

 

What you suggest seems to be a form of Delving, ie the ability to select for and extract salt in a given quantity of water.  Delving is classed as a Talent and is very rare.  The only people we've seen who have demonstrated the Talent for Delving are Egwene and Rand.

 

Um, the Manila Galleon went from Manila to the western coast of Mexico.

 

But there were, again, very, very, very few of them.

 

The thing is, every Seanchan ship appears to be a junk, more or less. The Galleon, as simplistic as it might seem, was the end result of hundreds of years of innovation in ship design that combined Northern European, Mediterranean, and Arab advances; essentially the fusion of the Carrack and the Caravel.

 

I can understand the ships surviving for a generation because of damane preservation techniques, and I can understand large ships.

 

But I cannot see large ships *capable* of transoceanic voyages, and equipped to handle the sheer mass of the Corenne.

 

Great Britain, France, Spain, and the Netherlands built large transoceanic sailing ships (not even to get into the foundries necessary for their ordinance) that required ridiculous facilities and quasi-industrialization that we have no evidence exists in Seanchan. Moreover, these nations had extremely strong programs for navigational and other technical training absolutely essential to the kind of voyages the Seanchan made.

 

But when we get a POV or at least secondary character in the form of Egeanin, we get a lot bovine fecal matter using nautical terms, but even in her head, we don't hear about the kind of sophistication necessary for a voyage of exploration with that kind of fleet.

 

If the Return were reversed, that is to say, if it came from a Hawkwing-daughter-conquered Shara rather than Luthair's Seanchan, then I could believe it, because the Corenne would go thousands of miles, but stay fairly close to land.

 

I already addressed this point. From the first century, the Chinese were capable of building junks in the first century that could hold 700 people and over 260 tons. Junks are ships that are made for ocean voyages and if early ones can handle hundreds of people and cargo, that early in history, don't you think the Seanchan could?

 

And Great Britain, France and Spain did not have reasons to build transoceanic ships that were capable of carrying soldiers, so why would you expect there to be historical examples of that?

[Bob T Dwarf]

A little more information I've found on Zeng He's Treasure Ships.

 

One of these monsters was observed in Calcutta.  The observer noted that the 1000 people carried consisted of 600 sailors and 400 archers.  These ships apparently did not provision for their own needs, each being accompanied by 3 smaller support ships which carried their food, water, and other consumables.  Scholars disagree as to their size.  Some believe they were 400-420 feet long, had four decks, and were 180 feet wide.  Others hold that they were only about 200-250 feet long, maybe 140-160 feet wide and 3 or 4 decks.

 

Although ships of the junk configuration are described by some as swift, apparently that is not so.  There is a recorded incident from 1420 of a junk ( size unknown ) which rounded the Cape of Good Hope and sailed out into the Atlantic.  It sailed for 40 days for an estimated 2000 miles, then turned around and returned to the Cape, taking 70 days to do so.  That's only an average 50 miles per day outbound and less than 30 miles per day for the return.

 

So, could 1000 man ships be built?  The answer appears to be yes.  Could such ships be self-sufficient?  The answer appears to be no.  Would they be fast?  No.  Heaving-to frequently, possibly even daily, to transfer needed supplies from accompanying lighters would have further slowed the progress of such a fleet.  Only 25% of such a fleet would actually be passenger carriers, more than half of whom would be crew and not passengers.

 

BTW, it takes 39 days from when Semirhage tells Suroth about the bloodbath in Seandar until the ship she arranged to bring the news arrives in Ebou Dar.  That gives us a semi-reliable way to estimate the distance between Randland and Seanchan.  Based on the historical 50 miles per day when sailing with the prevailing wind in open-ocean conditions, they should be about 2000 miles apart.

 

Further:  The largest such Treasure Fleet Zeng He ever led was the first consisting of 300 ships and 28-30,000 men.  So, although the building of 1000 man vessels was technically feasible, apparently the cost was so ruinous even the Chinese Emperor could only afford to build a couple.

 

That agrees with the situation in Europe in the 17th century.  Galleons, while much smaller and very useful were so expensive to build that only consortiums of businessmen could afford the cost.

 

So, how many such super ships could the Seanchan Empress afford?  Lets be generous and say 50.

[Elgee]

I'm almost sure there's a PoV by one of the Seanchan about what a long-term project the Corenne was. Something about it taking 200 years to build up the fleet? I could be way off here, though  :P

 

Oh and Bob, the Seanchan taught Egwene about Delving. They specifically tested her for that Talent, so one would presume they know about it, and most of its various applications.

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

Didn't say it was unknown, just that it's rare and the only people we've seen do any of it are Rand and Egwene.

[Blackhoof]

It appears that from what the Seanchan have said in TGH about Egwene being special because of her ability to delve leads us to believe that the Talent is rare, or at least uncommon among the Seanchan, but even so, perhaps purifying water doesn't need to be a separate talent, perhaps it just requires strength in earth and water. Im sure there are plenty of damane that could do it. Im sure in 200 years they would have considered water for the corenne.

 

And we dont know how many ships they had. We only saw several hundred enter Ebou Dar, and we were told that more landed in Tarabon and possibly Amadicia. There could have been more in those contingents than the Ebou Dari one.

[Hallow]

It appears that from what the Seanchan have said in TGH about Egwene being special because of her ability to delve leads us to believe that the Talent is rare, or at least uncommon among the Seanchan, but even so, perhaps purifying water doesn't need to be a separate talent, perhaps it just requires strength in earth and water. Im sure there are plenty of damane that could do it. Im sure in 200 years they would have considered water for the corenne.

 

And we dont know how many ships they had. We only saw several hundred enter Ebou Dar, and we were told that more landed in Tarabon and possibly Amadicia. There could have been more in those contingents than the Ebou Dari one.

 

Almost certainly more in the Amadicia contingent as there they would actually have to fight a very experienced fighting force (The whitecloaks) and not just the small garrison they met in Ebou Dar.

[Blackhoof]

I think you have me mistaken, i was talking about the Return, and how the thousands of ships appeared to settle in the Westlands. At this point, Amadicia was already taken.

[Mr. Micawber]

And I hate to break this to everyone, but, sadly, Amadicia's got no coast  :'(

 

Those poor Seanchan ships crushed against the rocks, trying to dock in Amador, and no one will admit to the navigational error, since that would be some way serious sei'mosiev!

[Muad Cheade]

Amadacia indeed has no coast. However, it seems that the Seanchan had a very large navy it seems.

 

I don't think this is a spoiler as it has long happened and is in every book I beleive. However, mods please correct this if necessary.

 

 

 

SPOILER

 

 

 

 

 

SPOILER

 

 

 

 

 

SPOILER

 

 

 

 

In the Glossary of TGS, it says of the Corenne, "The name given by the Seanchan both to the thousands of ships and to the hundreds of thousands of soldiers, craftsmen, and others carried by those ships.

 

So apparently the Seanchan have thousands not including those used by the Hailene (the first Seanchan soldiers) and those taken from the Sea Folk.

 

With those numbers, it makes sense how they could transport those people.

[Mr. Micawber]

Muad, the central point that Bob (and myself) have tried to make in this thread is not that we doubt how *many* ships the Seanchan have.

 

What we cannot understand is how on earth those ships could have possibly carried the equivalent of the AEF in World War 1 with 17th Century technology.

 

I suppose the Seanchan could have done it with something like tens of thousands (say 15 to 20) ships, but not even thousands seem possible.

 

And on the flip side, the idea the Empire built 20,000 massive ships seems to require huge amounts of handwaving too.

[magnutz]

I think numbers were elastic - springy - in RJ's world. Even Emonds Field has grown over the "years" - I know, the village grew because of the steady stream of refuges and so on - But the number of kids taken to go to the tower to train to become AS and the number of Two Rivers men that went to the BT + the ones that joined Perrin - those make it seem EF was a huge place. oh well.. Still love it though  :-*

[coteaz]

Im sure that the reason why the Seanchan have so many ships and seemed so prepared for the voyage food, water etc, is pure and simple Damane and the One power, ships move faster, food lasts longer, water purified from the ocean perhaps? And if i was in charge of the Corenne, i would build a whole range of ships, for different purposes, carrying raken, carrying grolm, maybe even a ship for the sole purpose of carrying massive amounts of food for all the other ships? etc etc.

[Dert]

 

It's not just the Seanchan, all the army sizes are on the large sided.

 

Take the Boderlands army.  I think it's 200,000 men, plus camp followers, plus horses. 

 

Your going to want your soilders fit and srong.  So there going to need at least 2500 calories a day, the average slice of white bread is 100 calories give or take a bit.

 

So thats 5 million slices of white bread per day in the field.  You can't feed that amount of men off the land, they would strip the country side bare.  The needs of an army that size is a massive supply demand. An theres multiple comparable armies in Randland at the moment.

 

Personnaly it doesn't ruin my enjoyment of the books, but the numbers don't really tally.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Well, it doesn't totally ruin my enjoyment of the series, as a whole, either.

 

But, it does smell up all the battle scenes.  I just read 'em and go, "Well, Jordan's nether regions strike again"

[Thane9]

I don't think the logistics are as far off as people are asserting.

 

Seanchan:  They have slave labor channelers.  This can account for MANY ships, MUCH armour, and an ease that any real world comparisons could never even imagine.  Not to mention the Ancient Greeks had giant warships with crews over 5000.  Remove the need for as many oarsmen due to channeling and you could concievably transport 100,000 troops with only 20 ships.  Not 200, not 2000, 20.

 

Aiel: They move fast which is in fact stressed, but these are people who sustain themselves from next to nothing.  Any movement in the "wetlands" must seem like a buffet line for them.  I don't see the Aiel being upset at eating grubs, roots, anything while moving through hostile territory.

 

Boarderlands:  I think those "support staff" are not always clearly mentioned, but they exist and they've been mentioned in the past.  There are typically supply lines and trailing groups with the Boarderland armies...at least in my imagination.

 

Rand's: Travelling.  Nuff said.  Would it be a pain in the butt to open a wagon sized gateway and bring supplies up to the current location?  Absolutely.  But would it be done?  Yup. 

 

Confirmed things:

 

People ARE starving to death.

Populations are being wiped out from war, dislocation, and starvation.

Cities are substantial.

Many of the armies are passing through wiped out or abandoned or conquered towns/cities.  Looting would be easy and yield plenty along that time.

We've seen numerous examples of the rigors of leadership, where these mundane problems are pointed out.  I think it's reasonable to assume we're only seeing a minor selection, rather than an inclusive list.

 

I think these three points, which are referenced often, adds credence to the idea that huge armies would not only be possible, but likely and for a lot of people preferable.  Everyone has been eating bug infested bread.  Meat isn't lasting.  One could suggest many of these huge armies have 10,000 cattle, or goats, or wagons of chickens, along with them.  Even 100,000 troops aren't going through a herd of cattle anytime soon...

 

Is everything spelled out in as much detail as we see in other areas of RJ's writing?  No.  I'll agree on that point.

 

But I also don't think this is just fantasy handwaving.  People are desperate, hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, are dying, and we've seen examples of the suffering from lack of food and resources mentioned.  I think it's reasonable to believe that the logistics are in fact happening and it's not just "magic" or requiring any superhuman suspension of disbelief.

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

And I hate to break this to everyone, but, sadly, Amadicia's got no coast  :'(

 

Those poor Seanchan ships crushed against the rocks, trying to dock in Amador, and no one will admit to the navigational error, since that would be some way serious sei'mosiev!

 

That'd be Admiral Lucy's Flotilla, with Fleet Captains Curly, Moe, and Larry.  They got some splaineen to do.

[Hallow]

I think you have me mistaken, i was talking about the Return, and how the thousands of ships appeared to settle in the Westlands. At this point, Amadicia was already taken.

 

I see, I was under the impression you were talking about the amount of Damane used in the attack of the two nations, forgive the misunderstanding.

[Blackhoof]

i forgive you.  :)

[magnutz]

A short invite to discuss Armies and their numbers.

 

I feel RJ didn't convince me about his choice of numbers where armies are concerned. 40 000 Aiel here - 10 000 there.. and 100 000 men over there. Sure if you have an army of 100 000 you can tell it to invade some place. Moving 40 000 men - 100 000 men is not something done over the weekend. It feels like it though.

 

40 000 Aiel would have hunted the local game to extinction and done all sorts of damage to... everything. If 40 000 Aiel piss in a river the ecosystem would freak out. If 40 000 Aiel ate deer, deer would become rare.

 

What are your thoughts on this?

 

Bumping this as I am currently re-reading KoD. If you HAVE NOT read Knife of Dreams - here's a nice spoiler space for ya. Do not read below.

**SPOILER**

 

**SPOILER**

 

**SPOILER**

 

**BROILER**

 

**SPOILER**

 

**SPOILER**

 

**HERE WE GO!**

 

Ok, so. I'm re-reading KoD. I get to the part where Rand and the Gang get hit by Shadow Spawn. Trollocs, Myrdraal and whatnot. There are over 100 000 of them, all coming at once. This is just crap. How many A'shaman (sp) and Aes Sedai are there? Loial and Haman with one axe each! Rand (+ LT), Logain and a few other guys with powah. A handful of Aes Sedai. Ok, so the Trollocs are idiots and the Halfmen mad as hatters but.. they would have swarmed any place with those numbers... and when they have slaughtered them all... the good guys go around torching the corpses...

 

Numbers and WoT = incompatible. Some say: "It is magic." I say it is not. It is bad numbers. What are your thoughts, again. ;D

 

PS. Assume one Trolloc takes up at least one and a half square meter standing still. That gives us this formula: trolloc-area*number-of-trollocs=size-of-trolloc-overrun-area. 1.5*100000=150000square meters of Trolloc nastyness! Inconcievable! DS.

 

/magnutz

[Malruhn]

This one is easy to field.

 

What happens to a fist of trollocs when the Eyeless is killed?  They go nuts!!  The Ashies, Aes Sedai and Rand (+LT) KNOW this, and would target them specifically.  Kill ten of the closest half-men and you have upwards of 1000 trollocs sitting in the way, running about wildly, or hacking anything that moves (including other trollocs).  Then it's "easy" to snipe the rest with the less powerful Ashies and AS (along with a couple of huge axes) cleaning up anything that gets too close.

_____________________

 

Now, I haven't read all 15 pages, but to address the logistical complaints in the first post:

 

40,000 men won't "destroy ecosystems" by pissing in rivers and eat all the critters in the wilderness until the blight is visible in Caemlyn... by this logic, the US east of the Rockies should be lifeless due to the size of the armies that were fielded in the (un)Civil War!!  When you have 30,000+ DEAD after a battle, there were well over 200,000 soldiers on the field.  That would decimate the ENTIRE area... EUROPE should be uninhabitable after WWII!

 

Except for the fact that it didn't.

 

Ecosystems are remarkably resilient.  It may be impacted for a year, but within two, things are back to normal as critters migrate to the "uninhabited" areas and rampant breeding goes on.

________________

 

For Thane9 and the magical Greek ships that carried 5000 men.  Those only existed in imaginations.  Even at the height of the trade business between Greece and Rome, the max cargo carried was only 300,000 tons PER YEAR - and you are talking OVER 500 tons needed to transport those 5000 men (with equipment).

 

The Triremes, which were the scourge of the seas for centuries, had a normal complement of men of only about 200 sturdy souls.  Even at triple that number for emergencies, you still only barely top 10% of your claim.

 

Jumping forward several hundred years, the vaunted Santa Maria (Columbus' third ship) was only 70' long and had a crew of 18.  Add to that a max contingent of marines (as opposed to Marines!), and you would top out at about 50 people MAX.

 

It isn't until you get to the floating cities that are our modern aircraft carriers that you can get to that kind of population on board.

 

Even with captive damane on board, you can't get ANYWHERE near 5000 people on a sailing vessel.  Besides, I haven't read a single entry to suggest that damane were used like Windfinders or had much skill in that sort of air weaves.

[magnutz]

 

 

This one is easy to field.

 

What happens to a fist of trollocs when the Eyeless is killed?  They go nuts!!  The Ashies, Aes Sedai and Rand (+LT) KNOW this, and would target them specifically.  Kill ten of the closest half-men and you have upwards of 1000 trollocs sitting in the way, running about wildly, or hacking anything that moves (including other trollocs).  Then it's "easy" to snipe the rest with the less powerful Ashies and AS (along with a couple of huge axes) cleaning up anything that gets too close.

_____________________

Too many anyway. They can’t just appear out of a waygate or move that amount the way it happens in the story. Ok, I see your point about the destruction of the 100k trolloc army. It is the logistics that bothers me.

 

Now, I haven't read all 15 pages, but to address the logistical complaints in the first post:

 

40,000 men won't "destroy ecosystems" by pissing in rivers and eat all the critters in the wilderness until the blight is visible in Caemlyn... by this logic, the US east of the Rockies should be lifeless due to the size of the armies that were fielded in the (un)Civil War!!  When you have 30,000+ DEAD after a battle, there were well over 200,000 soldiers on the field.  That would decimate the ENTIRE area... EUROPE should be uninhabitable after WWII!

 

We’re talking about a society that is more akin to that of 14th-15th century Europe. Perhaps 16th century. An army of 40 000+ Aiel would have destroyed the environment if they stayed too long in any place, and they do. The local farmers and the local game would not last long and since Randland suffers from droughts, crazy long heat and cold spells what usually comes out of the farms is far from what comes out now.

 

 

 

Except for the fact that it didn't.

 

Ecosystems are remarkably resilient.  It may be impacted for a year, but within two, things are back to normal as critters migrate to the "uninhabited" areas and rampant breeding goes on.

________________

 

I re-read the series pretty much constantly since it is such a bloody good read. The ONE thing that gets me every time is “numbers” – handled too off-handishly. ;)

 

Second is Balefire – another thread, another story. ;)

 

[Agitel]

Rand observes that the trollocs were falling by "the hundreds, the thousands" during their attack, to attacks from the power.

 

As for the Aiel, even the drought covered westlands were still considered incredibly rich by Waste standards. Aiel also always move prepared. They would have been trading in Caemlyn, Cairhien, and the surrounding towns. I would also suspect that they'd bring supplies to farm with, and they would have, given the time.

 

As for the Seanchan immigration, they are using ships that seemed highly advanced for their era, specifically designed for the return. Hundreds of them, row upon row stretching out to the horizon had sailed to Ebou Dar. Four times that many had been left in Tanchico (What the Veil Hides - WH). Thousands had come for the return. Some ships in the 1500s could hold upwards to 1000 people (a carrack could hold up to this), though that was overcrowded and many people could die on board, but hundreds of passengers could still work. Galleons could maintain crews of over a thousand, even during the 1500s, though some only had hundreds. The Henry Grace à Dieu, built in 1514, she was an English carrack and was called a "great ship" (hmmm, sound familiar? carracks also had high fronts) and had complements of 700-1000 men. None of the Seanchan ships would have been carrying artillery, either.

 

Forgive my ramble, I'm in a bit of a rush.