Tarmon Gaidin: Moiraine's Return & The Strike on Shayol Ghul

[cloglord]

From TEotW Ch. 46

The Golden Crane banner in the van would put heart into men who know that they are riding North to die.  The word will spread like wildfire, and though their kings have told them to hold where they are, lances will come from Arafel and Kandor, and even from Saldea.

(emphasis mine)

 

So say that there are 200,000 soldiers left in the borderlands, half in Saldea and the the other half split among Kandor, Arafel, and shienar, that still would mean that 33,000 Shienarian soldiers would be left in Shienar, and that even if Lan only got the one in 10 number from among the other countries soldiers that would make an additional 16,700 or roughly 50,000 actual soldiers.  This is a lowball estimate for me, because I think that the Algemar quote from above indicates that more than 1 in 10 soldiers will abandon their posts to follow Lan.  Then there is the matter of untrained soldiers.  To marginalize them as inneffective is to do the same to nearly every other armed force in Randland.  Take Andor for an example.  Most of their strength is exactly the sort of Farmer/aprentice conscript that is being described here as the likely bulk of Lan's force.  Yet no one seems to think that they are useless, not as effective as trained and battle hardened borderlander soldiers sure, but who is?  Wouldn't this type of force that has had some seasoning and experience with trollocs and assorted shadowspawn be at least as effective?

 

You do understand the tactical difference between trying to stand in Tarwin's Gap and stop the Trollocs, and arriving after they've already gone through and harassing their flanks while they march toward Tar Valon, right?

 

I apparently don't know enough about military tactics, why don't you explain to me how the idea of farmers on plow horses performing flanking maneuvers is less technically difficult than standing in a line and trying not to die.  And don't tell me that standing in a line against overwhelming odds, is a useless throwaway of untrained farmers, it worked well enough for RJ at the end of TSR.

 

You've lifted one statement of mine out of context from a very different conversation, and transplanted it here ...

 

No, it is entirely in context, we were discussing the type and makeup of the forces that Lan will be able to gather.  In that discussion, you said, "Lan will get his 50,000 farmers, mercenaries, and old men. "  That clearly puts you on record as estimating a minimum baseline for Lan's forces at 50,000 marginal soldiers.  From there you seemed to indicate that you felt that such a force of "crazy borderlanders"  would be sufficient to signifigantly hamper a force twenty times your size.  So to be precise I lifted two completely relevant statements of yours to a very similar discussion.  Perhaps that's the reason I remembered that you had said these things over eight months ago, because of the similarity of context. 

 

If the baseline is 50,000 marginal troops + 100% military turnout from Shienar + 10% turn out from the rest of the borderland it still equals at a minimum roughly 100,000 effective soldiers.

 

and even you had to admit that there, like here, I said that "that this rabble would get chewed up and spit out by the trolloc horde" if they tried to stand their ground in front of the horde.

 

And even I had to admit it?  Is this to imply that I make a habit of lying to try to strengthen my argument.  I'm going to assume that is not how you meant it, because otherwise it would likely piss me off.  I was deliberately trying not to twist your words. I could have just as easily not pointed out that you were consistent on the point, but that would have been wrong and a pretty transparent attempt at misdirection.

 

If the 50,000, or even 100,000, farmers and apprentices have to stand against the Trollocs in a knock down fight, they will be crushed.  If they fight on the flanks as part of something else, then they'll probably still end up dead, but they'll do more damage before eating it.

 

Again I'll refer you to the battle for Emond's Field.

 

Again, I'm not sure why you think she will be shipping all of her support off to support Lan's army.  And against a million or so Trollocs, I would call 30 Sisters a "small number".  I guess everything is relative.

 

I never said that I think that she will, simply that she could, and that she might be motivated to do so.  This idea was in response to Lucker's idea that Lan's forces would not have access to channelers, and remains IMO a viable counter to that position.  As for 30,sisters being inneffective, one only needs to look at Dumai's wells or the trolloc battle from KoD's to see the effectiveness of a small number of well trained channelers in the face of overwhelming odds.  Since we can reasonably assume that Cadsuane can deduce what is or is going to be happening at Tarwin's Gap either from her access to Nynaeve or her E&E's, and since it is also reasonable to assume that Cadsuane does not want Shienar overrun by trollocs, it would seem to follow that Cadsuane would likely assist in the defense of T'sG. 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Your quote from The Eye of the World is completely irrelevant.  First, those men were already riding north at the order of their King, under the command of their regular commanders.  Second, they were all from Shienar, and staying in Shienar.

 

The men who are on the Blightborder now know that if they abandon their posts, they are stripping already undermanned garrisons to commit treason.  In TEoTW, many of those lances would have gone to Lan with their rulers' blessing.  If they left now they would be opening their nation to the Blight for Tarmon Gai'don.  If you can't see the difference, then there's really no point in continuing this conversation.

 

I apparently don't know enough about military tactics, why don't you explain to me how the idea of farmers on plow horses performing flanking maneuvers is less technically difficult than standing in a line and trying not to die.  And don't tell me that standing in a line against overwhelming odds, is a useless throwaway of untrained farmers, it worked well enough for RJ at the end of TSR.

 

Emonds Field was a fortified position.  They were dealing with maybe 10 to one odds, once you include all the reinforcements they got, and had a powerful ta'veren with them to bend chance.  Even hastily made fortifications make a HUGE difference.  What Lan would face in the Gap would be so different than what Perrin faced in Emond's field, that you have proven that you indeed do not know enough about military tactics to comment intelligently on this question.

 

No, it is entirely in context, we were discussing the type and makeup of the forces that Lan will be able to gather.

 

The context that you are ignoring is the tactical context in which I said they would experience some limited success.

 

If the baseline is 50,000 marginal troops + 100% military turnout from Shienar + 10% turn out from the rest of the borderland it still equals at a minimum roughly 100,000 effective soldiers.

 

I don't think he'll get 10% of the soldiers from the rest of the Borderlands.  I don't think he'll get 1 in 100.  I said, quote, "I would be surprised if he got even the one in ten you mentioned earlier, among the actual soldiers."

 

I don't think he'll get one in ten.  I think he'll get 50,000 farmers and apprentices, and maybe, maybe, MAYBE half of the soldiers left in Shienar.  50,000 to 75,000 total... with 100,000 as the absolute unlikely but possible upper limit.  And even with 100,000, he won't be able to plug the Gap.

 

Again I'll refer you to the battle for Emond's Field.

 

Again, thats an absurd comparison.

 

To reiterate what Luckers has said ... Tarwin's Gap is no Thermopylae.  Several thousand Greeks faced better odds than Lan would, in a better defensive position, and within three days were either killed to a man or fled.  If Lan tries to plug the Gap with anything less than a quarter of a million men, at least 3/4 of whom are professionally trained and equipped soldiers, he will be trounced, assuming that the Trollocs are coming south in anything like the numbers we're all talking about.  Even with a quarter of a million, it would be touch and go at best.

[Darth_Andrea]

 

To reiterate what Luckers has said ... Tarwin's Gap is no Thermopylae.  Several thousand Greeks faced better odds than Lan would, in a better defensive position, and within three days were either killed to a man or fled.  If Lan tries to plug the Gap with anything less than a quarter of a million men, at least 3/4 of whom are professionally trained and equipped soldiers, he will be trounced, assuming that the Trollocs are coming south in anything like the numbers we're all talking about.  Even with a quarter of a million, it would be touch and go at best.

 

 

True if thats all that would be there, but it's going to take a very long time for him to get to the gap from where Nyneave left him, and I'm sure that when he gets there every man and woman possiably able to as much as shoot a bow will be there from the borderlands. Not to mention what ever armys the boys bring. Rand Matt And Perrin will be heading that way as well in AMOL at lest at some point. The Golden Crane may Ride For Tarmon Gaidin, but it dosen't ride alone.

 

 

[glow=green,1,500]Darth_Andrea[/glow]

[cloglord]

Your quote from The Eye of the World is completely irrelevant.  First, those men were already riding north at the order of their King, under the command of their regular commanders.  Second, they were all from Shienar, and staying in Shienar.

 

Maybe you should try reading it before declaring it irrelevant.  You were incorrect in every assumption you made about my quote.  Agelmar specifically mentions every borderlander nation by name and specifically says that men from those countries would come despite the orders of their kings.  Earlier in that section Agelmar even mentions how ever ruler and every court in the borderland believes that they are the target of the next attack, and yet he still made the claim that men would leave the defenses of their homelands to defend shienar in Lan's name, and that they would do the same to avenge Shienar after the fact if Lan called them to.  Seems pretty relevant to me.  Or may its just easier to dismiss it than to try and articulate a valid argument...

 

Emonds Field was a fortified position.  They were dealing with maybe 10 to one odds, once you include all the reinforcements they got, and had a powerful ta'veren with them to bend chance.  Even hastily made fortifications make a HUGE difference.

 

And you have some inside information you'd like to share with us as to why Lan couldn't dig a ditch or put up some stakes?  Is it just that he's too stupid, or is there some other reason?

 

What Lan would face in the Gap would be so different than what Perrin faced in Emond's field, that you have proven that you indeed do not know enough about military tactics to comment intelligently on this question.

 

That is a personal comment about my intellegence, and I resent it.  Perhaps you could try sticking to the argument instead insulting me.  Yes, it is different in many aspects, but it does not make me an idiot.  Lan would not be surrounded and fighting on all sides like emond's field either.  You know nothing of what the odds will be, the ground that the battle would be fought on, or the makeup of the forces on either side.  To make an assumption as to the outcome is premature, and to infer that I am stupid because I don't agree is insulting.  Why don't you try explaining how 50,000 untrained and under equipped farmers on plowhorses performing cavalry maneuvers is more effective than the same men, facing an enemy that can only come at them from one direction.

 

I don't think he'll get 10% of the soldiers from the rest of the Borderlands.  I don't think he'll get 1 in 100.  I said, quote, "I would be surprised if he got even the one in ten you mentioned earlier, among the actual soldiers."

 

go quote yourself all you want, I read what you wrote, I disagreed, and then I went on to make my own argument for what I feel to me a minimum number.  Since you seem to be the biggest sceptic here I used the 1 in 10 number.  I wasn't trying to convince you, I've already come to the conclusion that you like to stake your position directly opposite from mine seemingly without regard to the topic. 

 

I think he'll get 50,000 farmers and apprentices, and maybe, maybe, MAYBE half of the soldiers left in Shienar.  50,000 to 75,000 total... with 100,000 as the absolute unlikely but possible upper limit.

 

MAYBE half of the Shienarien soldiers?  What do you think the other half are going to do when they hear that trollocs are massing above Tarwin's Gap, take a coffee break?  Decide it would be a good time to move to Kandor?

 

And even with 100,000, he won't be able to plug the Gap.

 

And this is based on.....?  Did you find the super secret citation for the number of trollocs that are coming?  Do you have some special insight into the makeup of the forces and dispositions on either side?  Did Brandon Sanderson call you up the other night and lay this out for you?  Maybe if you could find a single shred of hard evidence that indicates the outcome of this contest, I'll rethink it, until then I'll continue to check my assumptions instead of tossing them around like little golden nuggets of truth.

 

Edited for typos

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Agelmar specifically mentions every borderlander nation by name and specifically says that men from those countries would come despite the orders of their kings.

 

None of which changes the fact that the overall situation at the end of The Eye of the World is completely different than it is in the "present".  Those men could afford to leave, because their nation was not already stripped of defenses.  But, again, you refuse to acknowledge that the situation has changed.

 

And you have some inside information you'd like to share with us as to why Lan couldn't dig a ditch or put up some stakes?  Is it just that he's too stupid, or is there some other reason?

 

Well, we could start with geography.  Tarwin's Gap is miles wide.  Its large enough to show up on a map of the CONTINENT.  Large enough for hundreds of thousands of Trollocs to pass through in good order.  "Digging a ditch" isn't going to cut it.  And building anything other than an earthwork barrier is going to require bringing materials to the site, or quarrying rock there ... its just not the kind of thing you can throw together.  The fortifications around Emond's field were barely enough to deserve the name, and they still took days to prepare.  This would be ... a monumental task, requiring months, money, and engineers.  If it were as simple as you propose, the Shienarans would have done it decades ago, when Malkier fell.  But it isn't.  Agelmar didn't risk defeat without fortifications for fun.  He did it because you CAN'T FORTIFY A MOUNTAIN PASS IN A MATTER OF DAYS.

 

That is a personal comment about my intellegence, and I resent it.

 

Resent away.  It was a direct response to the sarcastic tone of your statement, "I apparently don't know enough about military tactics, why don't you explain to me how the idea of farmers on plow horses performing flanking maneuvers is less technically difficult than standing in a line and trying not to die."  You were being sarcastic about it ... but you were correct in your assessment.  So I explained it to you.  Its not that its less "technically difficult".  It is, however, less "technically fatal".

 

Why don't you try explaining how 50,000 untrained and under equipped farmers on plowhorses performing cavalry maneuvers is more effective than the same men, facing an enemy that can only come at them from one direction.

 

Its more effective because you LIVE LONGER.  But, let me quote an expert on the subject who you might believe, one Davram Bashere. 

 

He had patterned his movements on what he had studied of the Trolloc Wars, when the forces of the Light seldom came anywhere near the numbers they had to face. Slash at the flanks, and run. Slash at the rear, and run. Slash and run, and when the enemy chased after, turn on the ground you had chosen beforehand, where the legionmen lay waiting with their crossbows, turn and cut at him until it was time to run again.

 

TPoD, ch 24, A Time for Iron.

 

Look ... this is tactics 101.  Literally one of the most basic principles of warfare.  If you do not have numerical superiority, or vast technological superiority, then you don't stand up and fight in an open field, and despite being a "pass", thats what Tarwin's Gap is.  You hit the sides, and flanks, and retreat.  You attack supply trains.  You try to confuse, and cut off parts of the opposing force.  You don't stand in the middle of a pass and say "Come get me!"  Because if you do that, they will kill you!

 

MAYBE half of the Shienarien soldiers?  What do you think the other half are going to do when they hear that trollocs are massing above Tarwin's Gap, take a coffee break?  Decide it would be a good time to move to Kandor?

 

Defend the fortified outposts and towns throughout Shienar.  Like they've been ORDERED to.  Try to keep some of the people alive, even after the Trollocs have broken through.  Like they've been ORDERED to.  Some armies do follow orders ...

 

I wasn't trying to convince you, I've already come to the conclusion that you like to stake your position directly opposite from mine seemingly without regard to the topic.

 

I know, and thats sad.  You seem to ignore the fact that I disagree just as vehemently with other people, and that I have, on occasion, actually agreed with you.  I just happen to think that the position you take is the wrong one, an awful lot.

 

I'm on record, in other conversations, as saying many of the same things I'm saying here.  That Lan won't amass a huge or very effective army.  That if he tries to defend the pass with the "army" that gathers to the Golden Crane, he'll be killed.  But, you think that this is just about you.

 

And this is based on.....?  Did you find the super secret citation for the number of trollocs that are coming?  Do you have some special insight into the makeup of the forces and dispositions on either side?  Did Brandon Sanderson call you up the other night and lay this out for you?  Maybe if you could find a single shred of hard evidence that indicates the outcome of this contest, I'll rethink it, until then I'll continue to check my assumptions instead of tossing them around like little golden nuggets of truth.

 

-shrug- By those arguments, how do you know any more than three people will follow Lan to Tarwin's Gap?  Did Brandon Sanderson call you up the other night and lay this out for you?  You could apply that objection to ANYONE's prediction about ANYTHING that will or may happen in A Memory of Light.

 

Cloglord, I'm assessing what I see, based on events to this point.  Could things turn out different?  Sure.  If it makes you happy that I admit that in print, then go be happy.

[Tyrell]

He did it because you CAN'T FORTIFY A MOUNTAIN PASS IN A MATTER OF DAYS.

 

Yes and capslock clearly gives you the moral high ground in the debate.

 

Why don't you try explaining how 50,000 untrained and under equipped farmers on plowhorses performing cavalry maneuvers is more effective than the same men, facing an enemy that can only come at them from one direction.

 

Its more effective because you LIVE LONGER.  But, let me quote an expert on the subject who you might believe, one Davram Bashere. 

 

He had patterned his movements on what he had studied of the Trolloc Wars, when the forces of the Light seldom came anywhere near the numbers they had to face. Slash at the flanks, and run. Slash at the rear, and run. Slash and run, and when the enemy chased after, turn on the ground you had chosen beforehand, where the legionmen lay waiting with their crossbows, turn and cut at him until it was time to run again.

 

TPoD, ch 24, A Time for Iron.

 

Look ... this is tactics 101.  Literally one of the most basic principles of warfare.  If you do not have numerical superiority, or vast technological superiority, then you don't stand up and fight in an open field, and despite being a "pass", thats what Tarwin's Gap is.  You hit the sides, and flanks, and retreat.  You attack supply trains.  You try to confuse, and cut off parts of the opposing force.  You don't stand in the middle of a pass and say "Come get me!"  Because if you do that, they will kill you!

 

While I'm no expert in military tactics it seems to me that while, indeed, you are correct in your assessment that these harrassment tactics would by far be more effective were they carried out by well trained and disciplined soldiers, such as Bashere has available to him. The point is that it seems likely that Lan won't have alot of well trained professional soldiers (as you have stated) and it'd be a hell of a lot more difficult to actually set up the whole harrass-and-ambush scenario than to get your <whatever number you and cloglord want here> men and get them to stand on some piece of slightly tactical ground and all die while holding the trollocs off for long enough to warrent a song, than to get them to pull off the harrass-and-ambush without getting slaughtered en-mass because they don't have the training or discipline for it, but once you're stood on a rise or something and you start getting surrounded it's fight or die.

[cloglord]

None of which changes the fact that the overall situation at the end of The Eye of the World is completely different than it is in the "present".  Those men could afford to leave, because their nation was not already stripped of defenses.  But, again, you refuse to acknowledge that the situation has changed.

 

When have I refused to acknowledge this?  I'm sorry, I've made two posts to this effect, and they both point out the similarities between the two situations.  Never once have I claimed that the situations are identical, nor have I claimed that there were no differences.  I was defending the point that the quote was relevant against the charge that it was "completely irrelevant."  It is a similar situation comparing the exact same soldiers rallying to the exact same place, to the exact same person.  It also directly adresses the idea that these men would not desert their posts in loyalty to their rulers, and takes into account that these men would be leaving their posts with the knowledge that they would be weakening the defenses of their home country in the face of a direct threat.  No, in the EotW they would not have been contemplating the immenence of TG that they probably are at this point in the present.  To be fair however, it didn't take the trolloc hordes of TG to destroy Malkier, it was the loss of men led by Lain that endangered Malkier's security.  Don't tell me that the example of Malkier would not be in the minds of men abandoning their posts to follow Lan. 

 

 

He did it because you CAN'T FORTIFY A MOUNTAIN PASS IN A MATTER OF DAYS.

 

Way to think out of the box.  A small group of suitably strong channelers could certainly do any of the things that you toss out as impossible.  Yes Tarwin's gap shows up on the map, so does the Jangai pass and Niahm pass.  Where does it say that Shangtai is indefensible?  Find me one place where it says in any of the books that tarwin's gap is miles wide.  After you do that, explain to me why it is miles wide for its entire length and entirely bereft of any place that could be defended.  This is not to mention the fact that the shienariens, and presumably therefore those that went to T'sG in TEotW, are nearly completely made up of heavy horse, (as per the BWB.)  They were not engineers or miners.  Now if we go with the whole untrained rabble idea, such a force would be full of people who's livelyhood was earthmoving, to one extent or another, people who knew how to dig, people who knew how to drive teams of draft animals, etc.  Lastly, you haven't even considered the idea that the shienariens have already begun such defensive fortifications.  We have IIRC seen only one POV from the borderlands since the beggining of TGH, and that one was from world's end in saldea.  Why wouldn't the shienariens, upon hearing about the dragon's rebirth, begin to look to their own defenses?   

 

Resent away.  It was a direct response to the sarcastic tone of your statement, "I apparently don't know enough about military tactics, why don't you explain to me how the idea of farmers on plow horses performing flanking maneuvers is less technically difficult than standing in a line and trying not to die."  You were being sarcastic about it ...

 

Call any kettles black lately?  That statement was in direct response to the sarcasm in your statement, "You do understand the tactical difference between trying to stand in Tarwin's Gap and stop the Trollocs, and arriving after they've already gone through and harassing their flanks while they march toward Tar Valon, right?"  Or maybe it wasn't sarcasm, maybe it was condecention.  In either case, I have refrained from making personal comments about you, its common courtesy.

 

So I explained it to you.  Its not that its less "technically difficult".  It is, however, less "technically fatal".

 

Maybe I missed your explaination, but I believe this is the first time that you have articulated that point.  You are correct that any force would have a better chance of surviving by attacking the flanks and rear, however, we do not know that surviving is Lan's goal.  We are talking about three different objectives here.  The attempt to slow/stop the trollocs, the attempt to inflict meaningful casualties to the trollocs, and the attempt to survive.  If we are talking about a trolloc force of the size that you seem to be suggesting,then any flanking attempts would be largely futile at slowing the trollocs.  Any force under Lan that is sufficiently large to cause meaningful casualties to the trollocs would be quickly surrounded and massacred, and if Lan's forces were dispersed enough to make them an effective guerilla force, it would dilute their effect to the point that it would do nothing real to slow or injure the trolloc host.  Given the choice between dead & effective and the choice of alive & inneffective, I don't think it would take Lan long to decide.

 

Its more effective because you LIVE LONGER.  But, let me quote an expert on the subject who you might believe, one Davram Bashere.

 

I hear what you are saying with the Bashere quote, and I completely agree, but this is assuming that Lan won't get to the pass in time.  Agelmar, also one of the great captains, thought that the best bet against overwhelming numbers was to try and stop them in the pass.  So which one is right?  Simply we do not know enough about the makeup of either force in the upcoming fight to be arguing over which tactics are certain to be correct. 

 

Everything always changes.  The best plan lasts until the first arrow leaves the bow.

  Matrim Cauthon - TFoH Ch.42 Before the Arrow

 

Defend the fortified outposts and towns throughout Shienar.  Like they've been ORDERED to.  Try to keep some of the people alive, even after the Trollocs have broken through.  Like they've been ORDERED to.  Some armies do follow orders ...

 

You mean the kind of ORDERS that Agelmar said would be disobeyed, despite being ORDERED to stay by their AWOL rulers?  Some armies do follow orders, some armies don't, it wouldn't be the first military coup brought on by a charismatic leader, it wouldn't even be the first one in the WoT.  And you may recall that Agelmar and Easar stripped these same forts and left old men and boys to their defense in an attempt to hold Tarwin's Gap.

 

-shrug- By those arguments, how do you know any more than three people will follow Lan to Tarwin's Gap?  Did Brandon Sanderson call you up the other night and lay this out for you?  You could apply that objection to ANYONE's prediction about ANYTHING that will or may happen in A Memory of Light.

 

The difference is in your unwillingness or inability to provide evidence for many of your assumptions.  I'm not seeing the same "events to this point" that you are apparently.  I have never found a description of Tawrin's Gap the suggests that it is "miles wide"  I've seen no evidence that +1,000,000 trollocs are going to come through the Gap, and I've not found a convincing argument for your assesment that 100,000 is the max for Lan, other than your assesment, which is apparently based on nothing.  I used your own statements on the minimum number of untrained soldiers that would gather.  I made my assesment of military forces left in the borderlanders based on the borderlander numbers in braem wood, I used a conservative estimate, (which I understand you don't agree with,) for the ratio of soldiers who follow to those who don't.  I tried to support that ratio with a relevent quote from a character who would know.  At every step I've tried to show why I believe what I have said, yet your response is to claim I have taken you out of context, that my citations are irrelavant, and that I an not intellegent enough discuss military tactics.  These have not been substantive arguments, yet I have done you the courtesy of adressing each one in turn.  The best argument that you have made was made when you actually cited something.  Davram Bashere is certainly an expert at fighting trollocs, and he has studied fighting them against overwhelming odds.  That is a valid point.  We have finally come around to discussing the point of military effectiveness Vs. survivability becasue we have gotten past the idea that I was unfairly taking you out of context.  Those points are valid and arguable points.  I'm not saying that my assesment is %100 correct, I'm saying that it is better supported than yours. 

 

Oh, and thanks Tyrell, you articulated what I was trying to get at better than I have so far.

[DuDZiK]

Yes and capslock clearly gives you the moral high ground in the debate.

 

Morality has no place in discovering the objective truth.

 

While I'm no expert in military tactics it seems to me that while, indeed, you are correct in your assessment that these harrassment tactics would by far be more effective were they carried out by well trained and disciplined soldiers, such as Bashere has available to him. The point is that it seems likely that Lan won't have alot of well trained professional soldiers (as you have stated) and it'd be a hell of a lot more difficult to actually set up the whole harrass-and-ambush scenario than to get your <whatever number you and cloglord want here> men and get them to stand on some piece of slightly tactical ground and all die while holding the trollocs off for long enough to warrent a song, than to get them to pull off the harrass-and-ambush without getting slaughtered en-mass because they don't have the training or discipline for it, but once you're stood on a rise or something and you start getting surrounded it's fight or die.

 

Hey I have an idea... why don't they stay in the already-made fortifications that are similarly made in strategic locations? Its been ages since I've read EotW, but whats the name of the fort that they all get to before heading off into the blight? Why don't they gather inside that fort, where there are walls and supplies to combat them.

 

Some points I have to make about this...

 

1) cloglord; evidence has little bearing on something like this. You can have all the evidence in the world, but in a story the author could easily pull the carpet from under your feet and do something contrary to whatever the 'evidence' has implied.

 

2) Myself, I would consider it rather pointless for Lan to march through the Borderlands and form a pittance following, after it has been hinted several times that he would be able to gather a huge army. It might consist of men that aren't full-time soldiers, but that brings me to my next point...

 

3) We're talking about the borderlands here, where I'm sure all men are at least adequately trained in combat should they ever have to face a raid from the Blight. And then there's all those former Malkier, such as the trader Nynaeve spoke to at the end of KoD. These men were probably former soldiers looking for revenge of their homeland in their youth, only to give up hope later on as it became apparent that it would not be retaken. This isn't to say that they're experts in battle formations and responding perfectly to their commander's strategy, but it also isn't to say that Lan couldn't think of some basic strategies to teach them. How long do we think they have before they have a battle to face? I'm sure Lan would start going over his plans and strategies with some of them as soon as people gathered behind him.

 

4) As everyone always points out; the final battle will invariably start and finish in the Borderlands (though I'm sure some goings on will happen in the rest of Randland). This means that at some point, all the nations with all their armies (especially the borderland armies) will arrive there to help in the fight. This means that more men could be sent to Lan, or to rally to Lan, who will most likely be engaged in a major series of battles. He might not have a necessarily massive army to start with, but we know he's going to fight, we're pretty damn sure that he's not going to fail and/or die, so it seems likely that something would have to be done to make him victorious or at least keep him from defeat.

[Xeonicus]

I'm too lazy to do the research myself and draw correlations to relation to Tarmon Gaidin... but I imagine the Fenian Cycle from Celtic Mythology probably holds a lot of answers if you look carefully.

 

I don't think anyone can dispute the influence that Celtic Mythology and culture has played in the development of the WoT series; R.J. drew very heavily from such sources.  The Aei Sedai were obviously derived from the Aos Si in Irish Mythology (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aos_S%C3%AD).  The Wild hunt and stories surrounding characters, such as Fionn mac Cumhaill, are reminiscent of characters in WoT.  William Butler Yeats's epic "Hosting of the Sidhe" contains some interesting depictions of the Wild Hunt.

 

I can easily see our main hero's in WoT being something akin to the fianna bands of Irish folklore, riding forth on the Wild Hunt to the final battle.

[cloglord]

Morality has no place in discovering the objective truth.

 

I think that the point was that posting in caps lends no weight, moral or otherwise, to the argument.

 

Hey I have an idea... why don't they stay in the already-made fortifications that are similarly made in strategic locations? Its been ages since I've read EotW, but whats the name of the fort that they all get to before heading off into the blight? Why don't they gather inside that fort, where there are walls and supplies to combat them.

 

Yeah, that's a great idea I wonder why they didn't do that in TEotW?  Hmmm, maybe Agelmar, one of the great captains, thought it would be better to face them in the gap for some reason....::)

 

 

1) cloglord; evidence has little bearing on something like this. You can have all the evidence in the world, but in a story the author could easily pull the carpet from under your feet and do something contrary to whatever the 'evidence' has implied.

 

Evidence does have bearing on argument however, which is what we are doing.  This argument is premised on the assumption that RJ's writing style would not lead him to "pull the carpet" from under us.  At least it is for me, I don't know about RAW or anyone else.

 

 

2) Myself, I would consider it rather pointless for Lan to march through the Borderlands and form a pittance following, after it has been hinted several times that he would be able to gather a huge army. It might consist of men that aren't full-time soldiers, but that brings me to my next point...

 

I agree, there is a thematic element at work here that I think precludes the undersized showing of force that RAW suggests.  However, I don't have anything more solid to base that assumption on than my gut feeling.

 

4) As everyone always points out; the final battle will invariably start and finish in the Borderlands (though I'm sure some goings on will happen in the rest of Randland). This means that at some point, all the nations with all their armies (especially the borderland armies) will arrive there to help in the fight. This means that more men could be sent to Lan, or to rally to Lan, who will most likely be engaged in a major series of battles. He might not have a necessarily massive army to start with, but we know he's going to fight, we're pretty damn sure that he's not going to fail and/or die, so it seems likely that something would have to be done to make him victorious or at least keep him from defeat.

 

I disagree with most all of these statements.  Firstly, everyone does not point out that the borderlands will encompass the majority of TG, many others including myself think that a major part of it will take place in the extreme SW corner of randland from the shadow coast, and I personaly think that it is likely that a force will strike Andor from out of the Aiel waste.  Secondly, I don't forsee a situation were any signifigant military force would be sent to Lan, it would be my guess that most signifigant military forces will be otherwise engaged.  Third, we are not pretty damn sure that Lan will not fail or die, there are a signifigant number of people here who are convinvced that Lan is going to bite it bigtime come TG.

[DuDZiK]

I think that the point was that posting in caps lends no weight, moral or otherwise, to the argument.

 

I fail to see how using caps has anything to do with morality or the 'moral high ground'.

 

Hey I have an idea... why don't they stay in the already-made fortifications that are similarly made in strategic locations? Its been ages since I've read EotW, but whats the name of the fort that they all get to before heading off into the blight? Why don't they gather inside that fort, where there are walls and supplies to combat them.

 

Yeah, that's a great idea I wonder why they didn't do that in TEotW?  Hmmm, maybe Agelmar, one of the great captains, thought it would be better to face them in the gap for some reason....::)

 

As I understood it in The Eye of the World, he was trying to buy time for all the people in the city/fort to evacuate to the capital.

 

1) cloglord; evidence has little bearing on something like this. You can have all the evidence in the world, but in a story the author could easily pull the carpet from under your feet and do something contrary to whatever the 'evidence' has implied.

 

Evidence does have bearing on argument however, which is what we are doing.  This argument is premised on the assumption that RJ's writing style would not lead him to "pull the carpet" from under us.  At least it is for me, I don't know about RAW or anyone else.

 

I don't mean to say that he will contradict himself, I mean to say that he may purposefully mislead us, or he will have kept us in the dark with what will happen. I mean, how many times has anyone here accurately predicted specific happenings such as this? With my experience in other series on other forums on other books, its a very low amount.

 

 

2) Myself, I would consider it rather pointless for Lan to march through the Borderlands and form a pittance following, after it has been hinted several times that he would be able to gather a huge army. It might consist of men that aren't full-time soldiers, but that brings me to my next point...

 

I agree, there is a thematic element at work here that I think precludes the undersized showing of force that RAW suggests.  However, I don't have anything more solid to base that assumption on than my gut feeling.

 

Thats probably for reasons I just stated above; while the author usually wants to hint towards what will happen, he won't try and make it so obvious that everyone knows whats coming (unless he wants to pull the rug out from them). So details and 'evidence' will most likely be lacking especially on theories that are more specific.

 

I disagree with most all of these statements.  Firstly, everyone does not point out that the borderlands will encompass the majority of TG, many others including myself think that a major part of it will take place in the extreme SW corner of randland from the shadow coast, and I personaly think that it is likely that a force will strike Andor from out of the Aiel waste.

 

I didn't say the focus would be there, I said it would start and finish there. The trolloc hordes (those that don't use the ways or are Travelled by a Forsaken) will have to come through the Borderlanders to get to the rest of Randland, and to defeat the shadow they will have to be pushed back into the Blight for an assault on Shayol Ghul (sp?).

 

Secondly, I don't forsee a situation were any signifigant military force would be sent to Lan, it would be my guess that most signifigant military forces will be otherwise engaged.

 

Not while there is any other battle, I agree. But I can see Lan with a resisting force holding some of them in the blight and being rescued at the very end by armies that are on their way to assault the Blight and Shayol Ghul. Maybe Nynaeve will show up with some Aes Sedai/Asha'Man or something, who knows.

 

Third, we are not pretty damn sure that Lan will not fail or die, there are a signifigant number of people here who are convinvced that Lan is going to bite it bigtime come TG.

 

With, as you said, absolutely no evidence to go on. Lacking such evidence, it is 50-50 that he bites it. Even if he does bite it it doesn't have to be because he has a pittance force, or a force of men that can't fight (farmers, old, young... whatever).

[RobertAlexWillis]

When have I refused to acknowledge this?

 

When you use quotes from those situations to support what you predict will happen in a different situation.

 

I'm sorry, I've made two posts to this effect, and they both point out the similarities between the two situations.

 

Yes.  Thats called "refusing to acknowledge that the situations has changed."

 

Agelmar, also one of the great captains, thought that the best bet against overwhelming numbers was to try and stop them in the pass.

 

LMAO ... Agelmar was going to lose, and he knew it.  He said it.  What happened to Aglemar and the Shienarans is the best proof I could ask for my tactical assessment!

 

A small group of suitably strong channelers could certainly do any of the things that you toss out as impossible.

 

That is entirely correct.  But Lan has no such group.  I stated clearly that my assessment was based on him not having any meaningful number of channelers, so your point, while uncontested, is irrelevant.

 

Find me one place where it says in any of the books that tarwin's gap is miles wide.

 

Nowhere is a measurement stated.  ::)  Read the description of the battle.  What Rand describes in TEoTW ch 51 could not take place in a space less than two or three miles wide ... the numbers involved and the type of battle described simply can't take place in a smaller space.  The numbers just wouldn't fit.

 

And even if ... if it was no more than a mile wide, Lan still couldn't fortify it in short order, no matter what disparaging "think outside the box" comments you make.  Again, the best evidence is the actions of the Shienarans themselves.  They know the pass, they've been meeting the Trolloc there for decades.  If it is so easy to fortify, why didn't they do it?  The answer is, if it was feasible, they would have.  From what Rand described, the entire pass is simply bare rock.  No trees to make stakes, and pretty bloody hard to dig in.

 

This is not to mention the fact that the shienariens, and presumably therefore those that went to T'sG in TEotW, are nearly completely made up of heavy horse, (as per the BWB.)  They were not engineers or miners.  Now if we go with the whole untrained rabble idea, such a force would be full of people who's livelyhood was earthmoving, to one extent or another, people who knew how to dig, people who knew how to drive teams of draft animals, etc.

 

Um ... there is a big difference between a farmer and a siege engineer ...

 

And do you think that the Shienarans chose heavy cavalry by accident?  That a thousand years ago, after the War of the Hundred Years, they threw darts to figure out what kind of army they should develop?  Heavy cavalry is the most effective fighting force in ... drum roll please ... open areas where you are meeting superior numbers and cannot build fortifications.  Sounds like Tarwin's Gap, to me.

 

The Shienarans are not ignorant of the principles or value of fortifications.  They built Fal Dara.  If fortifying Tarwin's Gap was remotely practicable, they would have done so in the decades since the fall of Malkier.  But what little description we have does not lend itself to that conclusion.  Rand describes "A broad mountain pass, surrounded by jagged black peaks like the teeth of the Dark One."  Throughout the battle, every description is of charges across open ground ... so there aren't any trees.  anywhere nearby.  Rand bruised his hands beating on the "stony soil", then turned one end of the pass into so much rubble.  I'm sorry, but that is describing ground that is all but impossible to fortify with materials on site.  Which would be why the Shienarans have not done so.

 

Maybe I missed your explaination, but I believe this is the first time that you have articulated that point.

 

Really.  What exactly did you think I meant when I was saying that if Lan tried to stand in the pass, he would be slaughtered?  I actually want to know ... because apparently I'm not speaking plain English here ... I honestly don't know how I could have been clearer.

 

I hear what you are saying with the Bashere quote, and I completely agree, but this is assuming that Lan won't get to the pass in time.

 

If you think that is the assumption, then you completely missed the point of that quote.  Whether Lan gets there in time or not, making a stand in the pass would be a quick way to die, with little or no tactical benefit.

 

Now, lets address the issue of "supporting assumptions".

 

I have never found a description of Tawrin's Gap the suggests that it is "miles wide"

 

You say its smaller?  Show me some evidence.  Your position is, at best, as much of an assumption as mine is.  At least I provided some presumptive evidence (the battle description in TEOTW, the appearance of the Gap on the continental map).  You may disagree with my presumptive evidence ... but I would disagree with yours too ... had you provided some.

 

I've seen no evidence that +1,000,000 trollocs are going to come through the Gap

 

I admitted that was an assumption.  But if there aren't a million Trollocs coming through the Gap, then the Shadow isn't posing much of a threat ...

 

What evidence do you have that fewer Trollocs are coming?  For that matter, what evidence does either of  us have that ANY Trollocs are coming?  Both our positions are based on completely unsupported assumptions.

 

I've not found a convincing argument for your assesment that 100,000 is the max for Lan, other than your assesment, which is apparently based on nothing.

 

What makes you think he'll get more?  You claim a quote from someone made under different circumstances over a year before the current events.  OK, I claim an assessment based on current events (the absence of much of the Borderland armies, a current escalated threat from the Blight.  How is one of those less an assumption than the other?  You say mine is "unsupported" because you disagree with the support.  Well, I disagree with your support.

 

You see, cloglord ... you're making as many "unsupported" assumptions as I am.  You're just trying to pretend that I'm the only one doing it.

 

Davram Bashere is certainly an expert at fighting trollocs, and he has studied fighting them against overwhelming odds.  That is a valid point.  We have finally come around to discussing the point of military effectiveness Vs. survivability becasue we have gotten past the idea that I was unfairly taking you out of context.

 

I don't think you are correct, though, that this argument comes down to "effectiveness Vs. survivability".  To quote another general, this one a real one, "No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country."  (George S. Patton).  If Lan takes his 50,000, or his 100,000, or his 250,000, into the pass to die, he has not been effective.  Whatever delay he achieves there won't mean a bloody thing in a war where his allies can move troops into position by Traveling.  Its not like Rand needs a delay to have time to get in position.  All Lan would have done is get a bunch of people killed for nothing, handing the Shadow an early victory and crushing the symbolic value of the Golden Crane.  He wouldn't even be doing any good by becoming a martyr ... its not like the rest of the world needs a reason to fight Trollocs. 

 

You seem to be admitting that if he simply stood in the pass, he would get killed.  You just think that would do some good.  That is a far different argument than the tactical one I was making, but I think it is just as wrong.

 

The point is that it seems likely that Lan won't have alot of well trained professional soldiers (as you have stated) and it'd be a hell of a lot more difficult to actually set up the whole harrass-and-ambush scenario than to get your <whatever number you and cloglord want here> men and get them to stand on some piece of slightly tactical ground and all die while holding the trollocs off for long enough to warrent a song, than to get them to pull off the harrass-and-ambush without getting slaughtered en-mass because they don't have the training or discipline for it, but once you're stood on a rise or something and you start getting surrounded it's fight or die.

 

For everyone ... let me be completely clear here.  It is more difficult, tactically, to execute "hit and run" raids and "slash at the flanks, then retreat", etc, etc?  Yes.  It is much easier to stand men in a line, and say "fight 'til you're dead".  My point was never that good tactics would easier.  My point was that they would be more effective.  Effective in the sense of not getting everyone killed.  It is indeed easy to put men in a position to "fight or die".  In this case, they would fight.  And then they would die.  And the Trollocs would march south over their corpses.

 

I think that Lan has the capacity, as a battle commander, to both see that, and to get his people to execute.  The hunting skills most farmers have apply much more closely to "hit and run raids" than the plowing and digging skills of the same farmer would apply to siege engineering.  Insurgents and guerilla fighters are usually not professional soldiers, but for some reason they still end up using the tactics I described.

 

Finally, on the subject of ALL CAPS.

 

When I am typing, I try to add emphasis to certain portions of the sentence, in order to draw attention to that portion of the statement.  When speaking, this can be done through inflection, but here, inflection must be injected in other ways.  It has nothing to do with "moral high ground", or anything like that.

 

Now ... I'm throwing up my hands and walking away.  Obviously, everyone here is married to their point of view, myself included, so further vituperation is pointless.  Maybe I'll actually be able to stay away this time ... -sigh-

[Tyrell]

Perhaps moral high ground wasn't a phrase people are familiar with and so shouldn't have been used, however, what I mean to say was that I read caps as shouting and shouting never won any points in a debate.

 

Personally I think Lan is going to his death, and I don't think him dying in a hit and run attack is very worthy of him, to take the argument from another side.

[cloglord]

When have I refused to acknowledge this?

 

When you use quotes from those situations to support what you predict will happen in a different situation.

 

Uhm, I'll say it again, I recognize that they are different situations.  However, that does not make the quote "Completely irrelevant," as you suggested.  In fact your original assessment of that quote was wrong on every point, you assumed that the quote was in reference to only shienariens who were already marching to Tarwin's Gap.  When I corrected this, it made the second of two posts where I had mentioned this quote at all.  Instead of admitting that you had misinterpreted the quote and discussing it on its merits, you decided it would be easier to claim that I had reached an entrenched position it was not worth discussing.  I maintain that the quote I provided is so similar in situation that it is applicable, not that it is an EXACT predictor of what is going to happen.

 

 

Agelmar, also one of the great captains, thought that the best bet against overwhelming numbers was to try and stop them in the pass.

 

LMAO ... Agelmar was going to lose, and he knew it.  He said it.  What happened to Aglemar and the Shienarans is the best proof I could ask for my tactical assessment!

 

So why did he do it?  Did he just have a death wish?  A bigger death wish than Lan?  I submit that Agelmar marched his troops to the Gap, because it was were they would be most effective.  IE inflict the greatest number of casualties, one of the three possible objectives that I outlined previously.

 

Quote

A small group of suitably strong channelers could certainly do any of the things that you toss out as impossible.

 

That is entirely correct.  But Lan has no such group.  I stated clearly that my assessment was based on him not having any meaningful number of channelers, so your point, while uncontested, is irrelevant.

 

And one of my clearly stated points was that such a force could easily be gathered/sent to him.  Seeing as we do not know the final makeup of Lan's forces, it makes this issue very relevant.  If we can spend several posts on the difference between trained and untrained soldiers, I think that it is warranted to discuss this possibility as well, especially in light of the demonstrated effectiveness of channelers from the end of KoD's.

 

Nowhere is a measurement stated.  Roll Eyes  Read the description of the battle.  What Rand describes in TEoTW ch 51 could not take place in a space less than two or three miles wide ... the numbers involved and the type of battle described simply can't take place in a smaller space.  The numbers just wouldn't fit.

 

I love how your evidential requirements change depending on what side of the argument you are on.  "I don't need proof, the one time its described its always described as big..."  and yet the the Horn of Valere which is actually linked to Illian throughout the entirety of the books can't actually end up there because there isn't proof that it has to go there.

 

 

 

And even if ... if it was no more than a mile wide, Lan still couldn't fortify it in short order, no matter what disparaging "think outside the box" comments you make.

 

Just becasue you don't want to discuss other options doesn't make them any less viable.  It still could be defended by the use of the OP, and it could be possible that the shienarians have already gotten started on it.  As for "disparaging comments", you lost the right to call me down for being impolite when you made the discussion personal. 

 

Again, the best evidence is the actions of the Shienarans themselves.  They know the pass, they've been meeting the Trolloc there for decades.  If it is so easy to fortify, why didn't they do it?  The answer is, if it was feasible, they would have

 

Or maybe they harbored romantic notions of restoring Malkier and to build a wall meant admitting defeat.  Maybe, the shienarians had had only 50 years to get used to the idea that they had become the last line of defense and until TEotW hadn't realized just how precarious their situation was in the face of a giant trolloc invasion.  Yes, they've had 50 years, but I'm guessing that TEotW was a special situation, in fact Agelmar says as much. 

 

Um ... there is a big difference between a farmer and a siege engineer ...

 

Um...I grew up on a farm, I make my living using historic farming techniques at a museum, I bet I could dig a ditch or build a wall alot faster than your average heavy calvaryman.

 

And do you think that the Shienarans chose heavy cavalry by accident?  That a thousand years ago, after the War of the Hundred Years, they threw darts to figure out what kind of army they should develop?

  Do you mean the period of time when they weren't really a borderlander nation?  The period of time when Malkier defended them?

 

Heavy cavalry is the most effective fighting force in ... drum roll please ... open areas where you are meeting superior numbers and cannot build fortifications.  Sounds like Tarwin's Gap, to me.

 

So are you saying that Lan's forces will be mainly made up of heavy cavalry or untrained farmers, which one is it?

 

Throughout the battle, every description is of charges across open ground ... so there aren't any trees.  anywhere nearby.  Rand bruised his hands beating on the "stony soil", then turned one end of the pass into so much rubble.  I'm sorry, but that is describing ground that is all but impossible to fortify with materials on site.  Which would be why the Shienarans have not done so.

 

It is also described as short enough for the groups to gallop to the ends of it to regroup.  You might also recall that one channeler might have already done the fortifying that I have claimed is possible.  Rand.  He shattered the mountains, and buried the trollocs under the rubble.  Sounds to me like he managed to naroow the gap on the north end, and I would guess a couple of broken mountians lying aroud would probably lessen the need to quarry any rock for fortifications....

 

Maybe I missed your explaination, but I believe this is the first time that you have articulated that point.

 

Really.  What exactly did you think I meant when I was saying that if Lan tried to stand in the pass, he would be slaughtered?  I actually want to know ... because apparently I'm not speaking plain English here ... I honestly don't know how I could have been clearer.

 

It was not until that point that you have made the connection between surviving and effectiveness.  I completely agree that dead people are not effective.  However, Lan is not going to gather an army of dead people, and I would suggest that a group of men who fight and die is more effective than a group of men who fight to no effect and live.

 

You say its smaller?  Show me some evidence.

 

Rand dropped a mountain on one end of it, it is certainly smaller than it was.

 

I admitted that was an assumption.  But if there aren't a million Trollocs coming through the Gap, then the Shadow isn't posing much of a threat ...

 

I suppose that would depend on what type and how many soldiers Lan can gather wouldn't it?  If Lan only get the three Malkieri from World's end, I'd say that 100 trollocs would probably pose quite a threat.  Hmmm, I quess we can't use the number of trollocs as an indicator of what Lan is likely to raise....I wonder if anyone has said that yet?

 

What evidence do you have that fewer Trollocs are coming?  For that matter, what evidence does either of  us have that ANY Trollocs are coming?

 

 

That is silly, we both know that it would make for a bad story for Lan to march on Tarwin's gap to fight no one.  Since we know that RJ doesn't write bad stories it is pretty obvious that a battle will take place, and that trollocs will be involved.  What we can't assess is the specifics.  I do not deny that Lan will likely be massively outnumbered, and that the battle will likely be a dire situation, but to try and quantify Lan's numbers based on a completely unsupported estiamte of what he is to face is impossible.

 

 

What makes you think he'll get more?  You claim a quote from someone made under different circumstances over a year before the current events.

 

I didn't claim he would get more, you and I are looking at the same number You think it is a maximum number I think it is a minimum number.  That has been my argument all along, I'm trying to establish a minimum number.  I have admitted that the situations between the present situation and TEotW are different, but you have yet to admit to their similarities.  The same people wer ewilling to go to the same place to follow the same person.  I have made an argument to compare the similarities of loyalty to king and imminent threat, and argument that you have not adressesed except to reiterate that they are different, a point that had been conceded.  I'll go ahead and adress the time difference as well if you like.  Yes the current situation is over a year after the quote I gave, however, using NS it is easy to gauge the willingness of borderlanders to follow Lan over time.  Apparently 20 years had not diminished ther fervor; they were willing to follow a year ago.  did they just forget that they would die for Lan, are the borderland's suddenly suffering from short term memory loss?

 

Whatever delay he achieves there won't mean a bloody thing in a war where his allies can move troops into position by Traveling.  Its not like Rand needs a delay to have time to get in position.  All Lan would have done is get a bunch of people killed for nothing, handing the Shadow an early victory and crushing the symbolic value of the Golden Crane.  He wouldn't even be doing any good by becoming a martyr ... its not like the rest of the world needs a reason to fight Trollocs. 

 

So why should he bother to fight at all?  If he can't slow/hold them at the gap, and he can't inflict meaningful casualties, he might as well march his army south to join up with one that can, right?  That's what Patton would do isn't it, leave to fight another day? "I shall return!" and all that? Don't think that's likely?  Me neither, I quess the only other option is that RJ intended them to be a force that would manage to effect the outcome in some manner.... 

 

Now ... I'm throwing up my hands and walking away.

 

Quitter  ;D (this is a joke, and not even a mean spirited one :))

[DuDZiK]

Finally, on the subject of ALL CAPS.

 

When I am typing, I try to add emphasis to certain portions of the sentence, in order to draw attention to that portion of the statement.  When speaking, this can be done through inflection, but here, inflection must be injected in other ways.  It has nothing to do with "moral high ground", or anything like that.

 

lol don't worry RAW I understand. I'd use bold or italics, but there's no hotkey for it; you can't hit ctrl+b here, you have to manually click the button, and its alot easier just to hold down shift and use CAPS than it is to go to the ol' mouse.

 

Perhaps moral high ground wasn't a phrase people are familiar with and so shouldn't have been used, however, what I mean to say was that I read caps as shouting and shouting never won any points in a debate.

 

As I explained above, when you see me (and I'm assuming RAW) using CAPS like that we are just doing it for emphasis, not to shout. To shout I use ! and for emphasised shouting I used CAPS and ! 8)

[RobertAlexWillis]

Guess I couldn't stay away.

 

Uhm, I'll say it again, I recognize that they are different situations.  However, that does not make the quote "Completely irrelevant," as you suggested.

 

I maintain that the degree of change does make it completely irrelevant.  As I will show several times in this post.

 

So why did he do it?  Did he just have a death wish?

 

A last stand was his only choice in the matter.  He didn't have the Dragon Reborn massing armies of Aiel and Asha'man in the south.  He didn't have an Aes Sedai wife who could give him support if he stayed alive.  The overall tactical situation at the time Agelmar made his choice was different.  In the situation he was in, a pointless last stand was his only option, and a delaying action had some value.  The allies he hoped would eventually come needed time to travel.  Lan's allies, most notable Rand, but also any allies garnered by his wife, do not need time to Travel.  So, a delaying "last stand" makes no sense for him.  Because the situation is different, now.

 

Seeing as we do not know the final makeup of Lan's forces, it makes this issue very relevant.

 

Its not relevant to my assessment, because I don't think he'll have them, if he chooses to make a stand in the Gap.  He might get some later, if he follows the Trollocs south, harassing them as they march.  This is simply a point we'll have to agree to disagree on.  But I freely acknowledge, and have all along, that a sufficient channeling presence could make a huge difference.  I just don't think he'll have them.

 

I love how your evidential requirements change depending on what side of the argument you are on.  "I don't need proof, the one time its described its always described as big..."  and yet the the Horn of Valere which is actually linked to Illian throughout the entirety of the books can't actually end up there because there isn't proof that it has to go there.

 

This is a perfect example of how you refuse to acknowledge changing situations.  I wasn't going to bring it up, but since you did ... the Horn hasn't been linked with Illian by anyone who actually knew anything about it since before Mat blew it ... in book 2.  That hardly qualifies as "the entirety of the books".  Its 2 out of 11.

 

Or maybe they harbored romantic notions of restoring Malkier and to build a wall meant admitting defeat.

 

Then they're idiots.  That is a ridiculously weak argument.

 

So are you saying that Lan's forces will be mainly made up of heavy cavalry or untrained farmers, which one is it?

 

Um ... I was talking about the composition of the Shienaran army.  If Lan could pick what he would get, then yes, he would probably choose heavy cavalry.  But he's not going to get to pick.  He's not even going to actively recruit.

 

Rand dropped a mountain on one end of it, it is certainly smaller than it was.

 

He sent a rippling wave of earth at the Trollocs.  He didn't change the overall height and width of the pass.

 

But hey, if he made it much smaller, maybe the Trollocs won't come through it at all.  After all, the only reason they use it is that it is large enough to move large numbers of Trollocs through easily.

 

Just becasue you don't want to discuss other options doesn't make them any less viable.  It still could be defended by the use of the OP, and it could be possible that the shienarians have already gotten started on it.  As for "disparaging comments", you lost the right to call me down for being impolite when you made the discussion personal.

 

You've got to be kidding me.  You lectured me in the most condescending fashion imaginable for a week in private messages, and I'm the one making it personal?

 

That is silly, we both know that it would make for a bad story for Lan to march on Tarwin's gap to fight no one.

 

Well, if the number of Trollocs is so small that Lan can meaningfully damage them with 50,000, or even 100,000 men, then Jordan sure has wasted a lot of time getting Rand to gather his armies together.  A million Trollocs is the minimum number that I think could pose any kind of threat to Randland.  Really, to be a credible threat, there should be more.  Rand and his coterie chopped up 100,000 Trollocs by themselves in 15 minutes.  What is the point of the Shadow sending any Trollocs south, if they don't send a lot of them?

 

You see, that was the basis for my assumption.  You make assumptions.  I make assumptions.  You're the only one who pretends that just one of us is doing it.

 

Apparently 20 years had not diminished ther fervor; they were willing to follow a year ago.  did they just forget that they would die for Lan, are the borderland's suddenly suffering from short term memory loss?

 

No, they're not suffering from memory loss.  They're suffering from half of their armies being several hundred leagues away.  It is mind blowing to me that you cannot see how that changes the situation.  In TEoTW, a soldier could have gone to Lan's call thinking, "There are still enough people left to protect my home."  Now, that same soldier would have to say, "Well, I'll go, even though it means no one will be left to protect my home."  They love the Golden Crane, they respect and honor Lan, but they don't love him enough to leave their homes defenseless.  That is how the current situation is different.

 

So why should he bother to fight at all?  If he can't slow/hold them at the gap, and he can't inflict meaningful casualties, he might as well march his army south to join up with one that can, right?

 

By gathering his army, he draws the attention of Rand and the Southlanders to events along the Blight. That was what he was worried about, when he got Nynaeve to send him north.  Once that is done, however, he won't get any more attention by dying.  And he can do more damage by living, and continuing to attack and harass the Trollocs as they move south, than he can by standing and dying.  He can slow the Trollocs more by using tactics like what Bashere described, developed for just these situations, than by making a meaningless gesture than gives the Shadow an easy victory.  He can do meaningful damage, but only by using the right tactics.

 

That's what Patton would do isn't it, leave to fight another day? "I shall return!" and all that?

 

Actually, that was MacArthur.  And it worked.  The US didn't fight a fight that it couldn't win at the time, and later did return, victoriously.  But, again, the tactical situations are so different as to make the comparison meaningless.

[cloglord]

I maintain that the degree of change does make it completely irrelevant.  As I will show several times in this post.

 

Finally!  I will mention however, that you have yet to admit that you completely misinterpreted the quote in question the first time around when you first called it "completely irrelevant," for a guy who is the first to admit when you were wrong its sure taking you a long time.

 

A last stand was his only choice in the matter.  He didn't have the Dragon Reborn massing armies of Aiel and Asha'man in the south.  He didn't have an Aes Sedai wife who could give him support if he stayed alive.  The overall tactical situation at the time Agelmar made his choice was different.

 

I disagree.  Lan does not have Rand massing armies for him, in fact it was Rand's indifference that fueled Lan's frustration and led him to do what he is doing.  Lan has no faith that Rand will do anything to protect the borderlands.  Secondly, he does not have the active support of an aes sedai wife.  Not only does Nynaeve have her own agenda, but Lan lacks any means of contacting her, and wouldn't likely ask her help if he could, as it would place her in harm's way, something he has been consistently loathe to do.

 

In the situation he was in, a pointless last stand was his only option, and a delaying action had some value.  The allies he hoped would eventually come needed time to travel.  Lan's allies, most notable Rand, but also any allies garnered by his wife, do not need time to Travel.  So, a delaying "last stand" makes no sense for him.  Because the situation is different, now.

 

Lan's allies would need time as well.  Granted it would not be travel time needed, it would require time for word to reach any potential help.  Lan has no good way to communicate his need to any potential ally, especially the type that can Travel to him on a moments notice.  That means that in order for the desperation of his situation to communicate itself it would require him to be both desperate, (IE not a relatively safe hit and run type of battle,) and the time for the news to reach potential help.

 

Its not relevant to my assessment, because I don't think he'll have them,[channelers]

Why not?

 

the Horn hasn't been linked with Illian by anyone who actually knew anything about it since before Mat blew it ... in book 2.  That hardly qualifies as "the entirety of the books".  Its 2 out of 11.

 

THe horn hasn't been directly linked in the last several books, but the indirect linkage still exists.  According to Thom, every story still links the horn to Illian, Every Illianer belives it, it seems to be the common perception in Shienar, and there are thousands of hunters roaming randland, (hunters that show up in every single one of the books BTW,) that are actively working to make this connection a reality.  Yet, you refuse to see even the possibility, because there isn't enough proof.  Yet, when it serves your purposes a handful of sayso is not only enough to make your POV possible but is enough to make it inviolate.

 

 

Quote

Or maybe they harbored romantic notions of restoring Malkier and to build a wall meant admitting defeat.

 

Then they're idiots.  That is a ridiculously weak argument.

 

Which is why you should have adressed all of the argument.  I didn't call them idiots I called then ignorant, ignorant of how dangerous a full scale invasion would be without Malkier to protect it.  Considering this is apparently the first major offensive launched at Shienar since the trolloc wars, it stands to reason that they could be blindsided, or the victim of hubris.  Borderlanders aren't perfect, Malkier managed to do some pretty dumb things and get themselves destroyed, are they idiots too?  What about the entirety of the leadership of the borderlands, who knowing that TG was emminent by virtue of the fact that they had gone seeking the DR, stripped their countries of half of their defenses to take them on a wild goose chase?

 

Quote

Rand dropped a mountain on one end of it, it is certainly smaller than it was.

 

He sent a rippling wave of earth at the Trollocs.  He didn't change the overall height and width of the pass.

 

Rand bruised his hands beating on the "stony soil", then turned one end of the pass into so much rubble.

 

So where did all the rubble go?  When it fell did it just stack itself neatly against the sides of the pass?  Was it all just pea gravel?  Hmmm, I wonder if someone with sufficient smarts could stack some of this rubble up into some sort of defensive structure?  Farmers don't know anything about building fences though, so that probably wouldn't work.  ::)  (For the record that was dripping with sarcasm.)

 

You've got to be kidding me.  You lectured me in the most condescending fashion imaginable for a week in private messages, and I'm the one making it personal?

 

I recall that conversation being perfectly polite up until one point at the end where you felt that I had made a condescending remark, to which IIRC I apologized for.  Here's the thing, when I had a personal issue with you I took it to personal messages so as to not broadcast it across the discussion boards.  Personal issue = personal message, discussion = discussion boards.  It is common courtesy.

 

Well, if the number of Trollocs is so small that Lan can meaningfully damage them with 50,000, or even 100,000 men, then Jordan sure has wasted a lot of time getting Rand to gather his armies together.

 

 

That is assuming that Rand's armies will be able to concentrate themselves on one front.  If you consider, as I do, that TG is likely to take place on many fronts, it removes the possibility of reinforcements comming to Lan, and makes a 3 to 1 fight in Tarwin's Gap a much more interesting read.

 

You see, that was the basis for my assumption.  You make assumptions.  I make assumptions.  You're the only one who pretends that just one of us is doing it.

 

I never said that I don't make assumptions.  I claimed that I try and explain and support mine, something that I don't think you have done a very good job of until this last post.

 

No, they're not suffering from memory loss.  They're suffering from half of their armies being several hundred leagues away.  It is mind blowing to me that you cannot see how that changes the situation.  In TEoTW, a soldier could have gone to Lan's call thinking, "There are still enough people left to protect my home."  Now, that same soldier would have to say, "Well, I'll go, even though it means no one will be left to protect my home."  They love the Golden Crane, they respect and honor Lan, but they don't love him enough to leave their homes defenseless.  That is how the current situation is different.

 

Since you don't think that the situation that Agelmar describes is dire enough to prevent men from leaving to follow Lan in TEotW, let me take a different tack.  Lt's look at the example of Malkier.  At the time of its fall, a very large portion of their military might was absent.  Granted the situation was different, this force was absent on account of being dead not on account of being 2 thousand leauges away, but absent none the less.  Despite being seriously understrength, a charasmatic lord and hero managed to convince the soldiers at the borderforts to abandon their posts in rebellion to their rightful king.  These soldiers couldn't rationalize their descision and claim that there were enough people left to defend the blight.  They abandoned the defense of their homes, and they did it for no better reason than that they loved, honored, and respected Cowin Fairheart, they loved him enough to leave the defenses of their homes.  There is precedent, and of all the likely figures to replicate this feat, willingly or no, Lan is the one to do it.

[wvlr]

Very interesting discussion.

 

I am not sure how this will effect either side of the discussion but here are some points that I do not think have been addressed.

 

1.  Nyneave would have certianally put a tracer on Lan so that she can keep track of his progress.    Not only that - I would bet that she periodically visits him (unseen) to see how well his forces are building up.

 

2.  The Rebal AS are frequently Traveling all over the place and will surely soon pick up rumors of the the army rising Golden Crane of Malkier and heading for Tarwins Gap and Tarmin Geadon.  Those rumors will soon get back to Merelle who is Bonded to Lan and will sence his approach to Tarwins Gap.  If she sensed him as very Distressed at Tarwins Gap I think that she would gather X number of AS & Travel there to check it out.

 

3.  Nyneave when she senses Lan getting near Tarwins Gap has immediate and direct access to Rand to ensure her hubby has whatever support she and Rand can immediately add as necessary - Asha'men/Aril/++++.    Not only that - I am pretty sure that Nynaeve knows about the Borderlanders in Andor and could provide them with a gateway to get them immediately to where they were needed.    I have little doubt that if they were told of an immenent attack in Tarwins Gap and were provided with a gateway that they would use said gateway.

 

As RAW stated above - "the situation has completely changed since TEotW."      But (As I see it)  that statement works against both arguments as much as for.    I think RJ (Brandon) has complete freedom to go either way OR (hopefully) pick another direction depending on other circumstances that he injects at the last minute.

 

Still, I like thinking about all the what if's that you are both raising.  -  just trying to provide more ammo for both sides.

[cloglord]

1.  Nyneave would have certianally put a tracer on Lan so that she can keep track of his progress.    Not only that - I would bet that she periodically visits him (unseen) to see how well his forces are building up.

 

This assumes quite a bit.  It assumes that Nynaeve knows how to put a tracer on him, that she had the forethought to do it in the time that she decided to send him and the time that they left, and that she actually would put a tracer on him in the first place.  If you were to expound on why you think it is certain, I'd like to hear it.  That does not meant that I think you are incorrect, only that it is not certain

 

2.  The Rebal AS are frequently Traveling all over the place and will surely soon pick up rumors of the the army rising Golden Crane of Malkier and heading for Tarwins Gap and Tarmin Geadon.  Those rumors will soon get back to Merelle who is Bonded to Lan and will sence his approach to Tarwins Gap.  If she sensed him as very Distressed at Tarwins Gap I think that she would gather X number of AS & Travel there to check it out.

 

This is precisely why I hope that RAW will explain why he thinks that Lan will not have access to channelers.  I have no doubt that it would be more difficult for channelers to reach him in an emergency, but it would be some time before Lan is in direct and mortal peril.  I concur that the period of time in which Lan is gathering his army would be plenty of time to rouse a contingent of channelers.  I mentioned one possibility, Cadsuane, you mentioned Myrelle, either is viable possibilities and there are certainly others.  On an  unrelated note, I am not sure that Myrelle's sense from the warder bond would let her know Lan's state of mind or his location in relation to Tarwin's Gap from any distance.

 

Nyneave when she senses Lan getting near Tarwins Gap has immediate and direct access to Rand to ensure her hubby has whatever support she and Rand can immediately add as necessary - Asha'men/Aril/++++.

 

As above, this assumes that Nynaeve has a way to sense this, and again I'm not sure that a finder would tell her his location relative to the Gap.  His location relative to her sure, but not the gap.  This also assumes that Rand is in a position to send help.  It could be that he is in the midst of some deep pychological peril, under attack from trollocs, or just plain incapacitated.  Lastly it assumes that Rand is willing to send help.  He's been playing his plans pretty close to the vest lately, and if Rand thinks that aiding Lan would endager them, I'm not sure he would, he is convinced thet his way is the only way to win TG afterall.

 

As RAW stated above - "the situation has completely changed since TEotW."

A statement that I disagree with to be sure.  I don't deny that the situation is different, only that it is not so different that we can't infer anything from what happened in TEotW.  I have no argument with the idea of Brandon doing whatever is nessecary to make this develop to a satisfactory conclusion, I just think that that conclusion is more likely in T'sG than as some sort of hit and run storyline.  To my mind, resolution of the rise of malkier plotline occurs at a decisive battle, a battle that RAW thinks to avoid by defining the tactics as he would if he were Lan.

 

-  just trying to provide more ammo for both sides.

 

Oh please no! :) we are dangerously close to using live rounds as it is...  ;D

[wvlr]

This assumes quite a bit.  It assumes that Nynaeve knows how to put a tracer on him, that she had the forethought to do it in the time that she decided to send him and the time that they left, and that she actually would put a tracer on him in the first place.  If you were to expound on why you think it is certain, I'd like to hear it.  That does not meant that I think you are incorrect, only that it is not certain

 

Actually, Clog I think that Nymaeve did the "tracer" bit a long time ago.   I am not sure if it was a Caddy POV at the Cleansing or more probably Elaynes POV at the Kin's Farm near Ebou Dar, where the POV character notes Nynaeve apparently following Lan's movement as he was out scouting as if she was actually "Bonded" to him.

 

From this I think that she has always kept a "tracer" on him since he showed up at ED.

 

Above and beyond that:   Nynaeve is very possessive of Lan - it is impossible for me to believe that she would not do this.    It is just the way that I "view" this character.   I may be mistaken but I very much doubt it - hence MY certianty.

 

I can see the possibility that someone else would be less convinced.

 

Edited to add:

 

I will admit that it could just be a varient of her wilder affiliation to the people that she healed that she showed in following Moraine and crew in the TEotW.    She has certianally healed Lann a number of times by now, but my bet is on a more reliable and informative "tracer".

[RobertAlexWillis]

I disagree.  Lan does not have Rand massing armies for him, in fact it was Rand's indifference that fueled Lan's frustration and led him to do what he is doing.  Lan has no faith that Rand will do anything to protect the borderlands

 

Actually, Lan thinks Rand just needs to be reminded.  Lan has no illusions that he can win the Last Battle on his own.  He knows full well that Rand will be needed, both Rand's armies and Rand himself.  He just needs something to pull his attention north.

 

If Lan does decide to make a stand at the Gap, it will be because he thinks his death will pull Rand's attention north.  I don't think thats necessary, but that is the only tactical advantage that his death at the Gap would achieve.

 

Secondly, he does not have the active support of an aes sedai wife.  Not only does Nynaeve have her own agenda, but Lan lacks any means of contacting her, and wouldn't likely ask her help if he could, as it would place her in harm's way, something he has been consistently loathe to do.

 

Nynaeve can bounce back and forth from Rand's group to the Borderlands at will.  Do you really think that she will simply abandon her husband?  The only question is how many channelers can she get to go with her when the time comes.  If she can get a significant number, then Lan could have a chance.  But I think they're all going to be busy elsewhere.  When the Trollocs do come south, I doubt it will only be through Tarwin's Gap.

 

Lan's allies would need time as well.  Granted it would not be travel time needed, it would require time for word to reach any potential help.  Lan has no good way to communicate his need to any potential ally, especially the type that can Travel to him on a moments notice.  That means that in order for the desperation of his situation to communicate itself it would require him to be both desperate, (IE not a relatively safe hit and run type of battle,) and the time for the news to reach potential help.

 

Again, I doubt that Nynaeve is simply going to abandon him.  She can use Travelling to keep track of him.  Even if she does no more than check on him twice a week, she can keep tabs on his location.  Frankly, what she should do is go to Tar Valon, scoop up Myrelle, take her north with her, and transfer the bond.  Or find Lan, bring him to Myrelle, and do it there.  She could disguise herself to enter the camp, and be done and gone before any of the uncomfortable questions came to a head.  It would take all of a couple of hours.  But, for some reason, she's not doing that.

 

And before you start asking "How would she find Lan without bonding him?" she would use the same method that Taim used to find Rand at Dumai's Wells: line of sight Travelling.  She knows roughly what his path will be ... so she Travels to a village or town roughly close, asks a few questions about the Golden Crane, and then uses line of sight Travelling to home in on him.  Shes a good tracker, she'll certainly be able to find traces of any size army days after it has passed.  So, even without bonding Lan, she can still keep track of him, in a general way.  Certainly if he begins engaging the Trollocs who have come through the pass in hit and run engagements, she could take word to Rand and anyone else.  Word of Trollocs actually coming south would force him to move in a way that the simple threat of such action would not.

 

Why not?

 

Because they'll be busy elsewhere.

 

This is as good a place as any to bring up another subject.  Do you think the Shadow's armies aren't going to have channelers?  Nynaeve might be able to bring Lan twenty or thirty Aes Sedai and Kin ... only to be facing down a hundred Dreadlords.

 

THe horn hasn't been directly linked in the last several books, but the indirect linkage still exists.  According to Thom, every story still links the horn to Illian, Every Illianer belives it, it seems to be the common perception in Shienar, and there are thousands of hunters roaming randland, (hunters that show up in every single one of the books BTW,) that are actively working to make this connection a reality.  Yet, you refuse to see even the possibility, because there isn't enough proof.  Yet, when it serves your purposes a handful of sayso is not only enough to make your POV possible but is enough to make it inviolate.

 

We had this argument elsewhere.

 

I didn't call them idiots I called then ignorant, ignorant of how dangerous a full scale invasion would be without Malkier to protect it.  Considering this is apparently the first major offensive launched at Shienar since the trolloc wars, it stands to reason that they could be blindsided, or the victim of hubris.

 

And I say they would be idiots if it was possible, but they didn't do it.  They fortified Fal Dara, far south of Tarwin's Gap, a thousand years ago.  So they knew the value of fortifying positions, even south of Malkier proper.  Apparently they were meeting the Trollocs at Tarwin's Gap long before the fall of Malkier (otherwise there would be no song about coming home from Tarwin's Gap that dates back to the Trolloc Wars).  Its not like Shienar was never threatened by Trollocs until after the fall of Malkier.

 

If nothing else, the fall of Malkier itself should have convinced them of the necessity of it ... if it were remotely feasible.  Since Agelmar and Easar are not idiots, especially in military matters, the reason they didn't fortify the pass was that it wasn't feasible.  If it wasn't feasible for the Malkieri in the thousand years since the War of the Hundred Years, or Rhamdashar before them, or Aramaelle before them, or Shienar in 50 years since the fall of Malkier, its not going to be feasible for Lan in a few days.

 

So where did all the rubble go?  When it fell did it just stack itself neatly against the sides of the pass?

 

I imagine it fell.  Straight down.

 

Hmmm, I wonder if someone with sufficient smarts could stack some of this rubble up into some sort of defensive structure?  Farmers don't know anything about building fences though, so that probably wouldn't work.    ::)  (For the record that was dripping with sarcasm.)

 

Not an effective one, no.  A farmer's fence is not for fortification, its for keeping cows in their pastures. or marking a property line.  Different engineering principles are involved.  Could they stack up some rocks?  Sure.  Could they build a wall across the entire pass?  No.  And if they can't, then all those piles of rocks are going to do is get in their way.  If you can flank an incomplete wall with a superior force, that wall becomes an obstacle for the defenders as much as the attackers.

 

Not to mention that if the Shadow does have any channelers, they can turn a loosely piled rock wall into so much shrapnel.

 

If you can only make hasty fortifications, rocks are the worst material around.  Trees are much more useful (see Emond's Field).

 

Once again, your condescending sarcasm ironically underlines your own ignorance.

 

Personal issue = personal message, discussion = discussion boards.  It is common courtesy.

 

And yet, you are complaining the same way, about the same things in both arenas.  ::)

 

That is assuming that Rand's armies will be able to concentrate themselves on one front.  If you consider, as I do, that TG is likely to take place on many fronts, it removes the possibility of reinforcements comming to Lan, and makes a 3 to 1 fight in Tarwin's Gap a much more interesting read.

 

Rand has enough armies to spread over that front, and more importantly, lots of really effective channelers.  His own personal coterie could put paid to a serious Trolloc army all on its own, especially anywhere he places Jahar with Callandor.

 

Any force that Lan could stop on his own would be insignificantly small, in the overall picture.

 

;D  Wouldn't it be luscious if Demandred, I don't know, had a spy in the Borderlands or something, and found out what Lan was doing?  If you are right, and soldiers will commit treason to follow the Golden Crane, wouldn't it be hilarious if Lan got a half a million farmers and soldiers to Tarwin's Gap, only to find .... nothing.  And then got word that Saldaea, Arafel, and Kandor were all being swarmed under.

 

"The Golden Crane flies for Tarmon ...!  Oops ..."

 

I claimed that I try and explain and support mine, something that I don't think you have done a very good job of until this last post.

 

My point was, that while you disagreed with my support, I was supporting my ideas as much as you were.  You just didn't agree with my supporting arguments, so you claimed I was making "unsupported assumptions".

 

Since you don't think that the situation that Agelmar describes is dire enough to prevent men from leaving to follow Lan in TEotW, let me take a different tack.  Lt's look at the example of Malkier.  At the time of its fall, a very large portion of their military might was absent.  Granted the situation was different, this force was absent on account of being dead not on account of being 2 thousand leauges away, but absent none the less.  Despite being seriously understrength, a charasmatic lord and hero managed to convince the soldiers at the borderforts to abandon their posts in rebellion to their rightful king.  These soldiers couldn't rationalize their descision and claim that there were enough people left to defend the blight.  They abandoned the defense of their homes, and they did it for no better reason than that they loved, honored, and respected Cowin Fairheart, they loved him enough to leave the defenses of their homes.  There is precedent, and of all the likely figures to replicate this feat, willingly or no, Lan is the one to do it.

 

Yep, there is precedent ... and look how that turned out.  All I can say is, if you're right, Lan's an idiot for letting it happen.  I know he promised Nynaeve he would let anyone who wanted to ride with him.  But if he lets his personal honor (keeping his promise to her) override the good of the entire Borderlands, not to mention the world behind them, I will throw the book across the room in disgust.  He should understand the lessons of the fall of Malkier better than anyone.  He knows that the tactical situation is touch and go all across the Borderlands.  He knows that the threat of the Shadow is not to Shienar alone.  If he lets that happen, he will deserve to die.

 

Edited to elaborate one point.

[cloglord]

He knows full well that Rand will be needed, both Rand's armies and Rand himself.  He just needs something to pull his attention north.

 

Considering that Lan was with Rand and in a position to argue, reason and cajole him on a daily basis, and found that insufficient, I fail to see how word sent weeks after leaving that Lan is succesfully carrying out harrying missions against trollocs is going to change Rand's mind either.  If Lan proposes to let the trollocs through the gap and do his best to harrass them then in either case the news would be the same.  "Trollocs are rampaging through Shienar!"  Why leave at all if the news is going to be the same?  At least if Lan had stayed he could attempt to personally influence Rand to come to the rescue.

 

If Lan does decide to make a stand at the Gap, it will be because he thinks his death will pull Rand's attention north.  I don't think thats necessary, but that is the only tactical advantage that his death at the Gap would achieve.

What you think is necessary and what Lan thinks is necessary are two different things.  Lan has the most overdeveloped sense of honor and duty of any character in the series, excepting maybe Rand.  If Lan thinks that his death is nessecary to do what he feels is right, I suspect it would take him about a half a second to decide.

 

Nynaeve can bounce back and forth from Rand's group to the Borderlands at will.  Do you really think that she will simply abandon her husband?  The only question is how many channelers can she get to go with her when the time comes.  If she can get a significant number, then Lan could have a chance.  But I think they're all going to be busy elsewhere.  When the Trollocs do come south, I doubt it will only be through Tarwin's Gap.

 

I don't think that Nyn will abandon him, but I don't think she will be dropping in on him with any regularity.  The reason that she knows that Lan is marching towards Tarwin's gap is because he promised he would.  She is afraid that Lan will not take kindly to being tricked, and try to argue her out of it, which is why she left him so quickly at World's End.  She also wouldn't even spend one last night with him, for fear of what Alivia would do to Rand in her absence.  If she is bopping off to the borderlands every other day, how is she supposed to protect Rand?

 

I have no doubt that Nyn will be trying to bring attention to Lan's march, and that she will be trying to rally any allies to his cause that she can, but she won't be taking a hand directly unless the situation has become dire.

 

 

Again, I doubt that Nynaeve is simply going to abandon him.  She can use Travelling to keep track of him.  Even if she does no more than check on him twice a week, she can keep tabs on his location.  Frankly, what she should do is go to Egwene, scoop up Myrelle, take her north with her, and transfer the bond.  It would take all of a couple of hours.

 

I won't argue that it is likely that Nyn will try to keep tabs on Lan, but I do not think that she is likely to risk seeing Lan face to face unless she has no other choice.

 

Because they'll be busy elsewhere.

 

This is as good a place as any to bring up another subject.  Do you think the Shadow's armies aren't going to have channelers?  Nynaeve might be able to bring Lan twenty or thirty Aes Sedai and Kin ... only to be facing down a hundred Dreadlords.

 

No, I do think that they'll have channelers, just not nearly as many as the good guys.  We know from Suroth that the Suldame are basically DF free, so that makes that force, nearly 100% for the good guys.  We know that Ispan, carradin, and Sammael didn't know any specifics about the Kin, making it unlikely that the kin has any great number of DF's in it either. We know that the percentage of BA relatively low, but just for the sake of argument lets lump all the other channeling groups together, Windfinders, seafolk, wise ones, aes sedai, wise ones, Aes Sedai, and Ashaman together and call it 1/3rd across the board.  The channeling forces of the DO are still massively outnumbered.  The only real advantages that the DO has is (presumably) sheer military numbers and the expertise of 9 forsaken. If 10 BA sisters show up at Tarwin's gap, 20 windfinders, or ashamen, or wise ones, or aes sedai will be there to match them. 

 

And I say they would be idiots if it was possible, but they didn't do it.  They fortified Fal Dara, far south of Tarwin's Gap, a thousand years ago.  So they knew the value of fortifying positions, even south of Malkier proper.

 

Yes fortification against raids, not invasion.

 

Apparently they were meeting the Trollocs at Tarwin's Gap long before the fall of Malkier (otherwise there would be no song about coming home from Tarwin's Gap that dates back to the Trolloc Wars).

 

Yes they met the trollocs at tarwin's gap during the trolloc war, the same war where all of the borderlands were overrun and Mafal Dadaranell was razed to the ground.  Nothing like that has happend since, as per the Agelmar  passage I may have mentioned.  I wonder why the song wasn't called marching home from Mafal Dadaranell?  I guess that's just another case of those stupid borderlanders attempting to defend an indefensible mountain pass when they know that it won't do them any good...

 

If nothing else, the fall of Malkier itself should have convinced them of the necessity of it ... if it were remotely feasible.  Since Agelmar and Easar are not idiots, especially in military matters, the reason they didn't fortify the pass was that it wasn't feasible.  If it wasn't feasible for the Malkieri in the thousand years since the Trolloc years, or Rhamdashar before them, or Aramaelle before them, or Shienar in 50 years since the fall of Malkier, its not going to be feasible for Lan in a few days.

 

Aramelle fell in the trolloc war.  We simply do not know if they fortified the pass of not.  Rhamdashar was the inheritor of the pass, and from their POV may not have felt the need to fortify it, as most people to not predict another 300 year war directly after the first.  Further Rhamdashar would probably not anticipate trollocs to storm through nearly half of their territory to go through the gap, to attack the rest of their territory.  Presumably the people of Rhamdashar felt that their defenses along the blight were sufficient for anything short of the trolloc wars come again, and they were right, as the trolloc wars did not come again. In the thousand years after the fall of Rhamdashar the Sheinarians would not have felt the need to fortify the pass for much the same reason.  Why would they feel compelled to fortify the pass if they assumed that the defenses of Malkier were sufficient to defend against anything short of the trollocs wars?  Again, they were proved right.  Even with the fall of malkier, the trolloc forces didn't make it anywhere near the gap, they were thrown back at some place called Jharen's stair IIRC.  To quote you,      "This is a perfect example of how you refuse to acknowledge changing situations."  Simply, Shienar only became a borderlander nation some 50 years ago.  To all appearances they are not a wealthy nation, nor one that has a lot of time to spare on infrastructure.  The speed of construction in Randland is exemplified by the towers in Carhien, and the shienariens had no reason to believe that the return of trollocs hordes would come during their lifetimes.  The shienariens are primarily heavy cavalry, and can be expected to be able to turn back several times their own number if met in a place condusive to charging ahead withou worry for their flanks.  The only crime that the Shienariens are guilty of is not anticipating the return of the trolloc wars in the 50 years after the fall of malkier.

 

 

Quote

So where did all the rubble go?  When it fell did it just stack itself neatly against the sides of the pass?

 

I imagine it fell.  Straight down.

 

He didn't change the overall height and width of the pass.

[he]turned one end of the pass into so much rubble.

So how did Rand manage to reduce the end of the pass to rubble without changing the height or width?

 

Not an effective one, no.  A farmer's fence is not for fortification, its for keeping cows in their pastures. or marking a property line.  Different engineering principles are involved.  Could they stack up some rocks?  Sure.  Could they build a wall across the entire pass?  No.

 

Have you ever even seen a farm?  I've climbed more farm fences than I can count, and I can't think of a one that I could climb while fighting.  I think that any fence that can keep a bull seperated from a cow in heat is going to slow down a trolloc. There is no difference in engineering principles, you are trying to overcomplicate this and make yourself sound smarter.  Stacking rocks is stacking rocks whether you call it a defensive wall or you call it a rock fence.  Is a rock fence a fortress wall?  No, is a rock fence a hastily contructed fortification?  Yes.  As to whether or not they could build a wall across that pass, I guess that would all depend on how wide the pass is, what materials ara available, the number of people that are working on it, the expertise of those people, and how much time they had to work on it.  If i recall, we haven't managed to nail down a single one of those variables.  You say it can't be done, I say it can. 

 

Not to mention that if the Shadow does have any channelers, they can turn a loosely piled rock wall into so much shrapnel.

 

Another variable.  If Lan has channelers, they could build the wall with the OP and defend it.  You say Lan won't have channelers, I say he will.

 

If you can only make hasty fortifications, rocks are the worst material around.  Trees are much more useful (see Emond's Field).

 

You are citing emond's field at me now?  I thought that was an entirely different situation?  Emond's field was surrounded by forest, of course the hasity assembled defenses of emond's field were going to be made of wood.  You use what is available.  Can you find some other proof that trees are more useful than rocks? Did Sun Tzu write about it, is it in MacArthur's memoire?

 

Once again, your condescending sarcasm ironically underlines your own ignorance.

 

Hey, I don't claim to be an expert on tactics.  Apparently you are, please elucidate us on your credentials....Are you in the army core of engineers, serve two tours in Nam?  Unless you got somthing to extablish your relative superiority, then you are basing your claims about my intellence and ignorance on nothing more than your own sense of superiority.  That sounds dangerously close to the definition of condescention to me, and if that's the case, I guess that would make you a hypocrite too, and this is the last I'll say about this on this forum.

 

Yep, there is precedent ... and look how that turned out.  All I can say is, if you're right, Lan's an idiot for letting it happen.

 

I don't see that he has much choice, that is unless you think he's going to spend the entirety of AMoL convincing people to go back home.  He's going to Tarwin's Gap, that's were he said he's going, it is his pattern as well as his promise to allow anyone who wants to ride with him to go.  Its not his MO to tell anyone what they should or shouldn't do.

 

He knows that the threat of the Shadow is not to Shienar alone.  If he lets that happen, he will deserve to die.

 

You know that the threat is not to shienar alone.  Lan thinks it will come through Tarwin's Gap, he said as much.

 

[Ashaman Kovan]

This is the quote from CLOGLORD....I couldn't make the quote function work for some reason....The low point of my day.We know that the percentage of BA relatively low, but just for the sake of argument lets lump all the other channeling groups together, Windfinders, seafolk, wise ones, aes sedai, wise ones, Aes Sedai, and Ashaman together and call it 1/3rd across the board.

 

I just that it was funny that you added Aes Sedai twice....You guys have a good argument going...That just made me laugh for a second. Because of how serious and adamant in your statements and opinions you guys are and then a little typo like that. ;D

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Considering that Lan was with Rand and in a position to argue, reason and cajole him on a daily basis, and found that insufficient, I fail to see how word sent weeks after leaving that Lan is succesfully carrying out harrying missions against trollocs is going to change Rand's mind either.  If Lan proposes to let the trollocs through the gap and do his best to harrass them then in either case the news would be the same.  "Trollocs are rampaging through Shienar!"  Why leave at all if the news is going to be the same?  At least if Lan had stayed he could attempt to personally influence Rand to come to the rescue.

 

Because Lan knows that Nynaeve knows where he is, and that Nynaeve knows where Rand is.  Therefore, the news gets to Rand much more quickly.

 

Lan hasn't tried to persuade Rand to pursue any course of action.  Thats not how he operates.  He didn't say to Nynaeve, "I tried to convince Rand to pay attention to the Borderlands, but he won't."  He's letting his actions send the message, because Rand rarely if ever listens when someone tries to tell him what to do.

 

What you think is necessary and what Lan thinks is necessary are two different things.  Lan has the most overdeveloped sense of honor and duty of any character in the series, excepting maybe Rand.  If Lan thinks that his death is nessecary to do what he feels is right, I suspect it would take him about a half a second to decide.

 

What you think is necessary and what Lan thinks is necessary are two different things.  Lan is a skilled tactician and strategist who knows holds his duty to men under his command in the highest regard.  If Lan thinks that he can do more to avenge Malkier by keeping his men alive and hurting the enemy, I suspect it would take him about a half a second to decide.

 

I don't think that Nyn will abandon him, but I don't think she will be dropping in on him with any regularity.  The reason that she knows that Lan is marching towards Tarwin's gap is because he promised he would.  She is afraid that Lan will not take kindly to being tricked, and try to argue her out of it, which is why she left him so quickly at World's End.  She also wouldn't even spend one last night with him, for fear of what Alivia would do to Rand in her absence.  If she is bopping off to the borderlands every other day, how is she supposed to protect Rand?

 

I have no doubt that Nyn will be trying to bring attention to Lan's march, and that she will be trying to rally any allies to his cause that she can, but she won't be taking a hand directly unless the situation has become dire.

 

And Trollocs pouring through Tarwin's Gap isn't dire?!  By the time Lan is approaching the Gap, he'll have had months to cool down.  And she'll have had months to find an opportunity to get away for short periods of time, like she did when she sent him ... and spent hours visiting other towns before returning to Tear.

 

I won't argue that it is likely that Nyn will try to keep tabs on Lan, but I do not think that she is likely to risk seeing Lan face to face unless she has no other choice.

 

She left quickly at World's End because of her emotional state as much as his.  Again, they'll have months to settle their nerves before he gets to the Gap.

 

No, I do think that they'll have channelers, just not nearly as many as the good guys.  We know from Suroth that the Suldame are basically DF free, so that makes that force, nearly 100% for the good guys.  We know that Ispan, carradin, and Sammael didn't know any specifics about the Kin, making it unlikely that the kin has any great number of DF's in it either. We know that the percentage of BA relatively low, but just for the sake of argument lets lump all the other channeling groups together, Windfinders, seafolk, wise ones, aes sedai, wise ones, Aes Sedai, and Ashaman together and call it 1/3rd across the board.  The channeling forces of the DO are still massively outnumbered.  The only real advantages that the DO has is (presumably) sheer military numbers and the expertise of 9 forsaken. If 10 BA sisters show up at Tarwin's gap, 20 windfinders, or ashamen, or wise ones, or aes sedai will be there to match them.

 

What if 50 of Taim's Asha'man show up?  Or what if -gasp- the Dark One actually has some channelers that no one knows about?  He's had the ultimate bargaining chip for any and all men who can channel for centuries.

 

And how is Lan going to get Windfinders or Asha'man or Wise Ones?  He might ... might get a couple Aes Sedai and some Kin.  Nynaeve can't commandeer Sisters from anywhere but the Royal Palace of Caemlyn right now, and the Kin aren't exactly experts in fighting with the Power.  10 Asha'man and Demandred could smash Nynaeve and 30 Kin.

 

Yes fortification against raids, not invasion.

 

-guffaw-  Seriously ... have you read the description of Fal Dara?!  Its a FORTRESS. 

 

Yes they met the trollocs at tarwin's gap during the trolloc war, the same war where all of the borderlands were overrun and Mafal Dadaranell was razed to the ground.  Nothing like that has happend since, as per the Agelmar  passage I may have mentioned.

 

Yes, nothing on the scale of the Trolloc Wars has happened since.  That doesn't mean that they aren't facing thousands of Trollocs some years.

 

Aramelle fell in the trolloc war.  We simply do not know if they fortified the pass of not.  Rhamdashar was the inheritor of the pass, and from their POV may not have felt the need to fortify it, as most people to not predict another 300 year war directly after the first.  Further Rhamdashar would probably not anticipate trollocs to storm through nearly half of their territory to go through the gap, to attack the rest of their territory.  Presumably the people of Rhamdashar felt that their defenses along the blight were sufficient for anything short of the trolloc wars come again, and they were right, as the trolloc wars did not come again. In the thousand years after the fall of Rhamdashar the Sheinarians would not have felt the need to fortify the pass for much the same reason.  Why would they feel compelled to fortify the pass if they assumed that the defenses of Malkier were sufficient to defend against anything short of the trollocs wars?  Again, they were proved right.  Even with the fall of malkier, the trolloc forces didn't make it anywhere near the gap, they were thrown back at some place called Jharen's stair IIRC.  To quote you,      "This is a perfect example of how you refuse to acknowledge changing situations."  Simply, Shienar only became a borderlander nation some 50 years ago.  To all appearances they are not a wealthy nation, nor one that has a lot of time to spare on infrastructure.  The speed of construction in Randland is exemplified by the towers in Carhien, and the shienariens had no reason to believe that the return of trollocs hordes would come during their lifetimes.  The shienariens are primarily heavy cavalry, and can be expected to be able to turn back several times their own number if met in a place condusive to charging ahead withou worry for their flanks.  The only crime that the Shienariens are guilty of is not anticipating the return of the trolloc wars in the 50 years after the fall of malkier.

 

Letting everything else go, if Shienar, with 50 years of actually knowing about the problem, didn't have the resources to fortify the pass, how is Lan going to have the resources?

 

Have you ever even seen a farm?  I've climbed more farm fences than I can count, and I can't think of a one that I could climb while fighting.  I think that any fence that can keep a bull seperated from a cow in heat is going to slow down a trolloc. There is no difference in engineering principles, you are trying to overcomplicate this and make yourself sound smarter.  Stacking rocks is stacking rocks whether you call it a defensive wall or you call it a rock fence.  Is a rock fence a fortress wall?  No, is a rock fence a hastily contructed fortification?  Yes.  As to whether or not they could build a wall across that pass, I guess that would all depend on how wide the pass is, what materials ara available, the number of people that are working on it, the expertise of those people, and how much time they had to work on it.  If i recall, we haven't managed to nail down a single one of those variables.  You say it can't be done, I say it can.

 

A farm fence never amounts to more than a breastwork.  I've been on a few farms myself, working for a land surveying company, and I spent quite a bit of time on, around, or near stone "fences".  Rarely are they more than waist high.  Anything much higher needs mortar to stay together, or needs to be made of cut stones (mortise and tenon).  Since Trollocs average about eight feet tall, that isn't going to pose much of an obstacle.  Most of them can simply hurdle it.  The Trollocs will simply overrun the position.

 

So how did Rand manage to reduce the end of the pass to rubble without changing the height or width?

 

Have you ever seen a wave go back and forth in an enclosed space?  Rand sent a wave of rock an earth ... it swallowed the Trollocs, then settled back down.  When you plow a field, you don't change its overall dimensions ... you just move the material around.  Thats what Rand did in the Gap.

 

But, again, if Rand changed the dimensions of the pass drastically, then the Trollocs have no reason to use it now.  We don't actually have any evidence that they are moving through the Gap.  Maybe Lan will get there and not find anyone.

 

You are citing emond's field at me now?  I thought that was an entirely different situation?  Emond's field was surrounded by forest, of course the hasity assembled defenses of emond's field were going to be made of wood.  You use what is available.  Can you find some other proof that trees are more useful than rocks? Did Sun Tzu write about it, is it in MacArthur's memoire?

 

Yes.  I was citing Emond's Field to highlight the difference.  You can't build stakes out of rocks.

 

Keep in mind, I'm not saying that a field of stakes would be enough to save Lan's army.  It would just be more useful than a waist high wall of loose stone, since you could spread them out over a greater area more quickly, without hampering your own mobility.

 

Hey, I don't claim to be an expert on tactics.  Apparently you are, please elucidate us on your credentials....Are you in the army core of engineers, serve two tours in Nam?  Unless you got somthing to extablish your relative superiority, then you are basing your claims about my intellence and ignorance on nothing more than your own sense of superiority.  That sounds dangerously close to the definition of condescention to me, and if that's the case, I guess that would make you a hypocrite too, and this is the last I'll say about this on this forum.

 

I've studied the Textbook of Military Engineering (the one written by Colonel J B Wheeler, that was used at the West Point Academy ... in 1884 ... not many of the same principles apply to modern warfare, of course) that describes extensively the construction of both temporary and permanent fortifications.  I've actually built and knocked down stone walls, using pre-gunpowder technology.  No, I'm not in the US army, and I didn't do any tours in Vietnam.  Modern fortification techniques would have nothing to do with this conversation anyway.  But I have studied ancient and medieval warfare, both on my own, and when I was in college (it wasn't my major, but I took several related elective classes).  In short, yes, I actually DO know what I'm talking about.  I've read Sun Tzu's Art of War (although it doesn't add much pertinent to this discussion, it spends more time on movement tactics and preparing the state to support the military).  I've read detailed, scholarly descriptions of battles ranging from Thermopylae to Stalingrad.  I've personally inspected real military fortifications, both modern and pre-gunpowder.  I'm honestly not making this stuff up just to be contrary.  There are serious, realistic problems with what you are proposing.

 

You know that the threat is not to shienar alone.  Lan thinks it will come through Tarwin's Gap, he said as much.

 

Lan knows that the Shadow threatens the whole world, not just Shienar.  He is not stupid enough to believe that Tarwin's Gap is the only place the Trollocs will come.  He may believe that the main thrust will come through Tarwin's Gap (with reason), but he's not stupid enough to think that that will be it.  He just watched the Shadow basically throw away 100,000 Trollocs.  He would have to be an idiot not to have some idea of their numbers ... numbers that could not all come through Tarwin's Gap, even if they are unopposed.  He is going to Tarwin's Gap because that is the closest he can get to Malkier, not because he thinks that is the only place the Shadow will strike.  He is not asking for people from all over the Borderlands to follow him ... he doesn't want anyone to follow him.  He'll take those he feels he has to, in order to keep his promise to Nynaeve, but I do not believe that he will want any soldier to desert his post, on an already undermanned Blightborder, and he will use any excuse he can to tell people to go home, or at least, to defend their homes.  It would be the worst sort of idiocy for Lan to return to the Borderlands because Rand is endangering them with neglect, only to strip away the defenses from three quarters of the Blight himself.

[cloglord]

Lan hasn't tried to persuade Rand to pursue any course of action.  Thats not how he operates.  He didn't say to Nynaeve, "I tried to convince Rand to pay attention to the Borderlands, but he won't."  He's letting his actions send the message, because Rand rarely if ever listens when someone tries to tell him what to do.

 

I finally got around to re-reading the chapter from KoD's and I think that we were both wrong.  Lan doesn't want to convince Rand of anything with either his words or deeds.  Nynaeve convinces him to remember his duty in the blight, so as to keep him from resenting her.  The way I read it, Lan thought he was going North to die.  He started to catch on to Nyn's plan when she forced his promise, thinking that she meant to send him to southern Shienar.  He isn't trying to send a message, he's trying to do his duty.

 

What you think is necessary and what Lan thinks is necessary are two different things.  Lan is a skilled tactician and strategist who knows holds his duty to men under his command in the highest regard.  If Lan thinks that he can do more to avenge Malkier by keeping his men alive and hurting the enemy, I suspect it would take him about a half a second to decide.

 

That would be true if Lan had ever led men into the blight.

 

KoD's The GOlden Crane

I've always refused to lead men into the blight, Nynaeve.  There were times that men rode with me, but I would not...

 

This is a hinge of our argument, Lan can't lead men in any sort of maneuver's if he's not leading them.  He can mount one last charge, and let anyone who wants to follow.  All the talk of defenses, walls, channelers is secondary to this issue.  Either Lan is going to command his force or his force will follow him, and whichever it is will lead to an entirely different set of circumstances.  This is the fundamental difference, I think, beltween our  POV's.

 

     

And Trollocs pouring through Tarwin's Gap isn't dire?!  By the time Lan is approaching the Gap, he'll have had months to cool down.  And she'll have had months to find an opportunity to get away for short periods of time, like she did when she sent him ... and spent hours visiting other towns before returning to Tear.

 

Nynaeve has mustered the courage to send her beloved directly into harm's way.  She carried out her plan so quickly because she did not want to loose her nerve.  Yes, over time she'll be able to settle her emotions, but only because she will not be subjected to the reality of her husband on a regular basis.  Everytime she visits him she risks breaking his resolve and/or hers, a risk that I don't think that she is likely to take.

 

What if 50 of Taim's Asha'man show up?  Or what if -gasp- the Dark One actually has some channelers that no one knows about?  He's had the ultimate bargaining chip for any and all men who can channel for centuries.

 

And how is Lan going to get Windfinders or Asha'man or Wise Ones?  He might ... might get a couple Aes Sedai and some Kin.  Nynaeve can't commandeer Sisters from anywhere but the Royal Palace of Caemlyn right now, and the Kin aren't exactly experts in fighting with the Power

 

If Lan has months to settle his emotions, then Rand/Nynaeve/Cadsuane/Myrelle will have months to gather him a channeling force.  As I outlined before, (and I believe that Luckers has outlined before in a much clearer fashion,) the good guy channelers will vastly outnumber the badguy channelers, that is unless the DO has a number of hidden dreadlords equal to the power of the suldame and the kin, and 1/6th of the rest of the combined channeling forces...

 

10 Asha'man and Demandred could smash Nynaeve and 30 Kin.

 

Uhm, I doubt it. Nynaeve has already twice proven herself equal to one of the forsaken, (admittedly a weaker one,) but Nynaeve also has an angreal and a whole suit of channeling armor, such as it is.  The kin would have the advantage of linking.  Take the example of Elayne's kidnapping.  It was ridiculously easy for a circle of 8 windfinders to pick off seven fully trained aes sedai. OF course Demandred could show up with 100 ashamen, but that would certainly make the other battles were Rand's forces weren't facing channelers a lot less interesting to read....

 

-guffaw-  Seriously ... have you read the description of Fal Dara?!  Its a FORTRESS.

 

A FORTRESS built directly after the trolloc wars to replace Mafal Darandell.  My point is that it wasn't built inresponse to regular large scale trolloc attacks, the worst that ground has seen since the trolloc wars is raiding, and most of that has probably come since the fall of malkier.  A fortress is defensive, and in the case of an approaching trolloc horde entirely useless for anything but defending what is inside.  Lan would be made completely ineffective if he made a stand at Fal Dara, because a relatively (to the rest of the horde) small force of trollocs could be left behind to pin them there, while the rest of the trolloc horde would be free to do as it wills.

 

Yes, nothing on the scale of the Trolloc Wars has happened since.  That doesn't mean that they aren't facing thousands of Trollocs some years.

 

Actually, that is exactly what I'm saying, but maybe you'll believe Bashere.

 

KoD's The Golden Crane

I've never seen anything like what's outside...A big raid out of the blight is a thousand trollocs.  Most are only a few hundred.

 

Letting everything else go, if Shienar, with 50 years of actually knowing about the problem, didn't have the resources to fortify the pass, how is Lan going to have the resources?

 

They didn't have 50 years to know about the problem, why would they feel the need to defend against something that has happened exactly once in 2,000 years?  They had had one winter's worth of reports telling them that a force the like of which had been unseen for 2000 years was massing about Tarwin's Gap.  Not a lot of time to prepare especially given the harshness of Shienarien winters.  Now that it has happened twice and once in recent memory, I would be disapointed if the shienarians haven't been fortifying the pass this past year+.  But to blame them for not having done it prior to TEotW is blaming the victim. 

 

A farm fence never amounts to more than a breastwork.  I've been on a few farms myself, working for a land surveying company, and I spent quite a bit of time on, around, or near stone "fences".  Rarely are they more than waist high.  Anything much higher needs mortar to stay together, or needs to be made of cut stones (mortise and tenon).  Since Trollocs average about eight feet tall, that isn't going to pose much of an obstacle.  Most of them can simply hurdle it.  The Trollocs will simply overrun the position.

 

The argument wasn't that it would be the best defense ever made, simply that it could be done.  I could counter that the same men that build the fence start by digging a ditch, use the dirt they remove to build an earthen bulwark, and then build their stone fence on top of that, but that isn't the point.  The point is that it is potentially defensible.  Since we don't really know that much about the actual width of the pass, the number and makeup of men that Lan will have with him, the materials, (or lack thereof,) available, or even what sort of force they will be defending against, it doesn't make much sense to argue beyond this point.

 

Yes.  I was citing Emond's Field to highlight the difference.  You can't build stakes out of rocks.

 

And I highlighted another difference, you can't build a rock fence out of trees.  You build with what's available, whether it is housing, fencing, or defense.  To say, "Look what emond's field did!" doesn't apparently mean squat, a point I think you made earlier when I tried to use emond's field to show the effectiveness of hastily erected defenses.

 

 

I'm honestly not making this stuff up just to be contrary.  There are serious, realistic problems with what you are proposing.

 

And tacticians always agree?  Listen, we don't even know what the condidtions will be.  We don't know anything about the forces that will be involved, where they will fight, how long they'll have to prepare before the battle, etc., etc., etc.  It seems pretty stupid for us to be having a pissing contest over who knows more than who, when its pretty obvious that we don't even agree about the basic premises of the argument.