90's Action Hero Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/22/2025 at 1:02 PM, Verbal32 said:

 

 

I don't have an issue with saying you'd change your view based on evidence - my issue is that you gave 2 options for Marsh, and both were him as scum.  You never gave him the opportunity to be town.  I read him as town, so it's not like there weren't signs.  His Thesaurus posts were clearly frustrated town.

 

 

 

 

Aww shucks, you'll make me blush.

 

 

 

 

And if Dice is the GF?  Don't you think he'd claim Cop in this instance?

 

 

 

 

HAHAHAHA, please come at me if you think you have even a remote chance of lynching me.  People voted Marsh with "imo bad reasoning".  You don't like my vote on Dice?  Ok.  Why would I vote Heavy?  I was leaning town, though expressed my discomfort with having Marsh town, who thought Heavy was scum.  I'm sure you read that, though.

 

Popped in when Dice asked, lol.  Pay attention to the thread, Turin.  I did post when and how long my break would be twice yesterday, and it was pretty much exactly as I stated.  Nice try, heh.  Actually, it isn't.

 

 

 

 

If I wanted the Cop dead (assuming you are), I would have not unvoted.  I could have claimed a million reasons to why I didn't unvote with barely 2 minutes left in the day.

 

 

 

 

I'm not confident on that slot.  I leaned town because he felt the same way he did in my first game back when he went a little emo and was town.  I was giving the benefit of the doubt, but Marsh being so certain makes me not sure.

 

 

 

 

This is just wrong.  He could be scum (like the GF), so a Cop viewing him would think he's just drawing fire away from the real Cop.  So yeah, still a POI......but he's also the un-cc'd Cop.  You can be both.

 

I was committed to him being mafia, but I'm not going to keep my vote on a claimed Cop.  As for Key, that's pretty clear.  I have a town lean on her, which is much more than anybody else on that train.  But if you were paying attention to the thread earlier, you saw Dice essentially bow to Key and ask her if she wanted anything from him.  How often do you see Dice do something like that?

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This post.  I was catching up this morning and meant to.go.back to it but got distracted. 

 

GF? Why just gf to claim cop? Both you and Rand are on about this. I doubt the real cop (if it isn't Dice) views Dice possibly  for this reason. I would think they view someone else, looking for mafia. The town fake claiming cop could be a genius level play, especially since no one died last night. I'm sure you can see how. 

 

Where did I say people voted Marsh with bad reasoning? I said I thought you voted Dice with bad reasoning.  Heck, even you said you voted Dice with "bad" and "meh" reasoning. Then threw in competing trains, while ignoring Heavy. You claim here that he was a town lean. But really haven't shown why.

 

Yeah, you were watching a show. You couldn't be monitoring the thread on your phone while doing that? You didn't announce you were back with great episode.  You jumped in and answered Dice. I'm not buying it. My prerogative. 

 

i already explained this to Rand. You could.have but you would have been most likely lynched because of it.

Your not confident on the slot? It sounds very wishy washy. Very not wanting to take a real stand. Very fake.

 

Again with the GF angle? Maybe it's just me but I don't see why a cop would try to view Dice in these circumstances. 

 You didn't sound committed to believing he was mafia. You sound very tentative in your stances, like you don't wanna be held to anything. 

Your town lean on Key, is it stronger than the one on Heavy? Does it bother you that your big town read, the one you took a stand on, the one now confirmed  town, had both of them as mafia?

 

[DPR]

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:41 PM, RandA lThor said:

I hate it when I agree with you. Makes me confused if Im saying the right thing.

 

Thinking back to what Dice said about aura. I remember DPR being that guy back in the day when I played often, and factoring that in when I played. Many years later, all of that background is gone for me, and I think thats good because you're suggesting concretely decent probability outcomes as negligible and muddying the waters. Maybe your playstyle integrates the aura youve built up over time and getting other town to trust your analysis, and that backfires on this game of a lot of people returning from hiatus. But Im spitballing now.

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I’m not asking for trust. I’m presenting logic based on what seems the most likely to me. If others agree, it’s fair to think we may be into something. That’s how the town wins. Occam and all that. 
 

@RandA lThor please answer when the last time you played mafia was. 

[DPR]

Y’all will do damn near anything to not see what’s right in front of you lol

[DPR]

There is no world where a townie false claiming cop is a genius level play. No world. 
 

The odds that the real cop cc’s and outs themselves are high. Too high to consider this as a possibility. 
 

If we can’t agree on that, town is going to lose this game. 

[Turin Turambar]

VOTE : VERB

 

I think his teammates  are:

Rand (like 80%) and either

Heavy or Key based on interactions and how they treat each other. To be fair this is mostly from Verb and Rand so 

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:21 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

Also why all this effort on Dice, if you feel you’ve already found a Mafia in DPR?

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Nvm, on laptop and found the areas I forgot to address. Simply put because there's more than one mafia, and I want to keep my reads in mind when I read what they're convincing people of. But I agree that DPR is the guy to go to today, hence my vote.

 

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:21 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

Excluding Dice, that’s 1 in 8? Apart from two of those 8 can’t be killed cos they’ve either cos a vest on or they’re hiding. And the doc is in the mix too they could have selected the same player as the mafia. There’s probably people that can work out the numbers, not me though.

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Glad you sparked this line of thinking, that's 2 out of 8, plus the doc save. If the doc save was randomly picked, the odds that it would not be used on the hider, BPV, or mafia are 6/11 (the 5 vanilla and the cop) and the odds that the doc save targeted the same person as the mafia NK given that the save was selected on a vulnerable town are (6/8 that mafia didn't select the hider or BPV, and 1/6 that mafia and doctor converged on the same player). That means (1/4) + (6/11 * 6/8 * 1/6) = (1/4) + (6/88) = (1/4 + 3/44) = (14/44) = (7/22) = 31.8%. Of that 25% is simply that the mafia hit the BPV or the hider, so that is actually way more likely than the doc saving the right target, doc please read this, your save only has a ~1/5 (6.8/31.8) chance of actually validating someone as a town

 

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:32 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

I'm still comfortable with my reasons for voting Marsh. As far as I was concerned he was mafia. I'm sorry he wasn't. You strongly believed Dice was/is Mafia. The people who are/were on Dice train believe/believed he was mafia. I think you even tied the vote at one point.

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All valid. I do want to emphasize that I believe there are also town on the IE train, and it is possible that is what you are.

 

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:21 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

He says yes but mafia plan! I say any plan would involve more than just Dice.

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Note here: The other mafia also don't have anything to lose if Dice goes and tries to claim cop. They keep a teammate they would've otherwise lost, and get to fish for the cop.

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:45 PM, ed2funy said:

it wasn’t a pop up vote. I’ve been seeing and disliking his posts and indicating this for awhile. 
 

anyway, at the ER for my road trip buddy so I’ll try to start a list while I’m waiting for her. But I don’t think it’s gonna be a list like y’all want. Cause for example, I don’t have thoughts on Lenlo and Tigs. They’re neutral to me. Most people are neutral and haven’t stood out to lean either way

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So many hospital situations 😕 Hope she's ok

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:05 PM, DPR said:

Y’all will do damn near anything to not see what’s right in front of you lol

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  On 4/23/2025 at 3:07 PM, DPR said:

If we can’t agree on that, town is going to lose this game. 

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Can I just ask, and this is a just question - I'm not Shad that can solve the game from only reading the D1 VC - but does anyone else get a strong emotional disconnect from Town and DPR in these two comments. Irritatingly I've had this pingpingpingpingpingping feeling before, but I don't remember if it was accurate. I think it was though....

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 1:48 PM, ed2funy said:

Lazy framing. I’ve been giving my thoughts in most of my posts. I’m just not writing paragraphs for every thought. 
 

again, hypocritical with the antagonistic comment. 13% of your posts are just “wow” or “omfg” with no thoughts. 
 

keep going DPR

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You know this is also fair and maybe I'm being too harsh on Ed's activity since it doesn't align with my style of being active. Noted.

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:09 PM, Turin Turambar said:

VOTE : VERB

 

I think his teammates  are:

Rand (like 80%) and either

Heavy or Key based on interactions and how they treat each other. To be fair this is mostly from Verb and Rand so 

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Wasn't a lot of your suspicion of Verb based on him avoiding voting for me? So if I was Town would that not lessen your suspicion of Verb?

[Nynaeve]

  On 4/22/2025 at 9:21 PM, RandA lThor said:

Fair, but fwiw, I'm not loving that you're unable to agree with or reason with why you don't agree with Dice's claim not being alignment indicative, and that along with the IE initial vote def has you rising up my scumtrum (specscum?)

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Yeah, prolly shouldn't use specscum... >.>

[Nynaeve]

  On 4/22/2025 at 9:27 PM, Verbal32 said:

The level of trolling Wes is laying onto poor Rand is the stuff of legends.

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It's a thing of beauty

 

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:02 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

Seriously Rand, if you've said he's off the table for your vote why are you still filling pages with all this. What do you hope to achieve?

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i clarified this further down, so apologies if I repeat myself, but do you agree that my following belief is valid in this game?

 

* Dice is scummy, and in the large scope of finding the mafia in this game, it is important to analyze him. It is also important to confront his opinions if they're wrong so that other people aren't convinced, and if he is town and my read is wrong, he is able to fix mistakes. It is also important to explain my actions so I'm not just attacking other people, but explaining why I am not mafia, just as I expect others to do.

* He is the un-CCed cop, and however scummy I think he is, it's too risky to vote him out this day. In future days, that can change.

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:07 PM, DPR said:

There is no world where a townie false claiming cop is a genius level play. No world. 
 

The odds that the real cop cc’s and outs themselves are high. Too high to consider this as a possibility. 
 

If we can’t agree on that, town is going to lose this game. 

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There were only 5 people online when it happened. So it's only 1 in 3 that the cop is even there. There was only minutes till DL. So the cop needs to recognise, decide if to respond, how to respond in that short of time knowing that if they do out themselves,  THEY ARE DEAD I. NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE STRONGMAN.  So yes, I can see how that could happen.  Say Dice is VT ( or something else), he knows he's going down. Townies fight now, none.of the oh well crud. This game is full of experienced players. He hopes they understand the benefits. It's sketchy,  so it's possible that the mafia doesn't believe and just RBs him just in case and shoots wherever. The kill fails for some reason. Town is ahead.

Or, he might just be the cop and mafia still didn't believe.  Shot elsewhere and the kill failed for reasons.

I don't.know, but the other possibilities exist and are valid.

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:04 PM, DPR said:

@RandA lThor when was the last mafia game you played before this one? 

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IRL I think I played sometime last year? On forums, it's been many years.

 

If you're thinking of using your recent experience to override/smooth over the points I've made, don't. They're rooted in logic, and you'll need to logically argue your way through them, and either show me why I'm wrong, why you're wrong and willing to change your opinion, or fail to disprove what I'm saying in which case you're probably scum grasping.

[Nynaeve]

  On 4/22/2025 at 9:35 PM, RandA lThor said:

Gotchu makes sense. But also, even if it's legal, is it smart to not discuss as much since mafia would get some theoretical leg up since they're able to discuss everything we're discussing between themselves?

 

But also, one or more of us, most likely all town, won't be alive in the morning right, and we'll miss their leans?

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Jfc, go play with heavy

[HeavyHalfMoonBlade]

Another question: 

 

Tig and Nyn had diametrically opposite reactions to end of day. Tig thought Rand was scammy as could possibly be, Nyn thought Rand was totally consistent with being Town. Are these both valid opinions, and why has no one bothered either of them for their reasoning? Are they just flying under the radar or is that the whole fake, not fake claim thing is actually a pretense for all this antagonism?

 

I kind of feel no one is going to answer this for multiple reasons but mostly as it has no easy answer if one at all. But it is bugging me so maybe someone can answer.

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:15 PM, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

Wasn't a lot of your suspicion of Verb based on him avoiding voting for me? So if I was Town would that not lessen your suspicion of Verb?

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Some. But I can see ways for him to be mafia and you to be town. He could have easily chosen you and been in the same situation if you are town. ( when he tied the trains on D1)

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:08 PM, Turin Turambar said:

I went back to do DPRs requested reading. I'm not sure which conversation he was talking about. I'm guessing Nyn and Dice??? I also saw this and something from Verb that I had forgotten about. So thanks pirate. 

 

Anyways  something about Rands read list struck me as odd. There were two instances where he joined two players together. Exactly two. He joined Ithi and Key, then Verb and Me. I don't like this. Especially since I'm suspicious of Verb. I don't wanna be grouped with him. It always feels like a way mafia will put teammates with townies to link them in people's minds. I have been a bit suspicious of Key so I find it odd that only two people I have some suspicion on are linked in this manner on his list. It could be innocent but it pings.

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I have two types of grouping I've done this game Turin, so let me separate the two.

 

1. I think players are linked by some action or conversation (when early D1 said at least one of Dice, IE, or Heavy was probably scum, or when I have recently said that Dice, DPR, Ithi, and Key are linked together on the wanting Marsh to get voted out yesterday).

 

2. The type I used above where I was just grouping together similar type players to summarize my reads, when I was still getting into the flow of the game. That was not meant to be a grouping used to indicate relations in the game, just people who I thought were playing similarly so far, and giving me a similar vibe. That has since changed as I've gotten a better handle of the game.

[Nynaeve]

  On 4/22/2025 at 9:37 PM, keyholder21 said:

I've been interrupted like 5 times trying to get this posted. 

 

lolme on the flip, It's Hamilton all over again.

 

Dice waiting until TWO minutes to deadline to claim is ridic. If really cop, why would you play so scummy during the day and leave it up to literally having to claim?? Like as town I REALLY don't understand this. That being said, probably not going to ever lynch an un-cc'd cop. But I hate it.

 

In the last several pages DPR/Verb feel like they are playing really different games than they did in the last game, which makes me feel better about Verb and worse about DPR. While I don't agree with Verb's reads list, I feel it is consistent with how he's been playing all game and I like his responses to Turin and DPR. I feel like I can understand where he's coming from. 

 

DPR has been much snarkier during night, imo, than he was during day or the entire time last game, where he was town. I don't follow the logic that Verb is Condemner, because he didn't seem to be pushing a lynch on anyone? I also don't follow on Rand specifically being GF or that his EOD looked "much". Or, how the stuff EOD makes Heavy a confused townie or how it's okay about dice waiting to reveal or that Verb was tunneling Ithi yesterday. That being said, I agree that Marsh was scummy and I agree with his case yesterday and I feel like it would be cray to be so forceful out of the gate as scum.  However, if anyone could do it, I feel like DPR could, so lean scum.

I didn't really like Rand's first posts, but he looks good since EOD. I thought his voting made sense. He didn't really have a choice but to unvote dice and vote Marsh, imo, but I hedge more townie than scum here. I also like that he's arguing not to super clear dice, not because of the not super clearing, but because it feels like a town mindset to not just accept someone immediately as cleared town that's not cleared town and it's fairly against the grain and would feel like a big swing for scum. I can also follow his points responding to DPR and they make sense. 

 

Len sliding in and then speculating on what roles will do without providing anything else is wolfy.

Ed coming in after DL to complain about other posts and that "if we don't find anything in his posts then that's on us", but not offer much of anything of his own feels on people is also wolfy af. I also did NOT get any breadcrumbing from dice? and why is Rand an "easy kill"?? 

 

Ithi moves to town lean - I like the nonchalant response to Verb, it felt like town saying whatever man, and I think it looks good that she was fine with Verb playing a different way because it would be easy as scum to agree and push someone who thinks she's scum. I also like her calling attention to the fact that people should be upset with her for being on Marsh's lynch. But, I didn't like her post about Marsh toward EOD and I don't care for her reads on Ed and Rand.  

 

Turin - Same feeling as before really. I think there is some weird logic with the votes and him thinking Verb is scum because of EOD, but ironically, this makes me think town because I think Wolf Turin would be cleaner?  He was pretty sloppy with stuff last game too and he was town then, so it makes me think town. He's also back and involved, which looks good to me. 

 

Heavy seems to want people to vote him? His switching back and forth between tone/attitude still weirds me out and makes me feel like he's scum, but asking for people to vote him repeatedly seems like a new townie move.  Unless he's really good at reverse psychology? So basically, idk here.   

 

Nyn is asking good questions and her reads list feels genuine in terms of why she has folks where she has them.  

 

Tigraine - Showing up and immediately saying dice was obviously breadcrumbing, duh, and very positive rand is scum based on EOD, wolfy. Although, I am a sucker for receipts so I do like that she provided receipts.  

 

Btw, ala sign up thread, my activity is going to go down over the new few days as my work schedule is packed. I'll be here as much as I can.

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 If by receipts you mean her summeries, if that's something she does as a playing style, it means she'd have to do it regardless of alignment, specifically around players who played with her before. 

 

So I'm personally not inclined to give her any credit for it, specifically because I don't think her summeries had any depth to them.

[Nynaeve]

  On 4/22/2025 at 9:38 PM, Ithillian Turambar said:

If I had a gun I would shoot you myself because you have been doing the most busy night time stuff there is.

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Rings true lol

[Ithillian Turambar]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:17 PM, RandA lThor said:

i clarified this further down, so apologies if I repeat myself, but do you agree that my following belief is valid in this game?

 

* Dice is scummy, and in the large scope of finding the mafia in this game, it is important to analyze him. It is also important to confront his opinions if they're wrong so that other people aren't convinced, and if he is town and my read is wrong, he is able to fix mistakes. It is also important to explain my actions so I'm not just attacking other people, but explaining why I am not mafia, just as I expect others to do.

* He is the un-CCed cop, and however scummy I think he is, it's too risky to vote him out this day. In future days, that can change.

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I know that relatively recently, a player made sure they acted a little bit sus so that they wouldn't be a target for the mafia kill. They had a power role. Didn't work out so well cos we all voted for him lol.

 

I know that relatively recently, regular town Dice didn't care that he got tied on a Lynch and voted himself out the airlock

 

I know that relatively recently Dice was a mafia and there was no thought of creating a plan that would domino death him and the team mate who tried to hero out him as mafia, by fake claiming cop. They were quiet. They planned from the shadows. They didn't want to be seen. A team mate got run up on a dubious peak from a dubious cop and they did nothing. Because the lone wolf dies so the pack survives.

 

And I  know I saw him fight to stay alive because it was important. So I am almost 100% sure he is the real town cop. And if he isn't then wow. Fluffing amazing. Good job Dice.

 

So if your main reason for me being Mafia is that I don't really think it's a mafia masterplan, it's a terrible reason.

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:21 PM, HeavyHalfMoonBlade said:

Another question: 

 

Tig and Nyn had diametrically opposite reactions to end of day. Tig thought Rand was scammy as could possibly be, Nyn thought Rand was totally consistent with being Town. Are these both valid opinions, and why has no one bothered either of them for their reasoning? Are they just flying under the radar or is that the whole fake, not fake claim thing is actually a pretense for all this antagonism?

 

I kind of feel no one is going to answer this for multiple reasons but mostly as it has no easy answer if one at all. But it is bugging me so maybe someone can answer.

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My take is Tigraine is sketchy here. I think I showed previously why I thought Rand was reasonable at EoD. 

I will get to her in due time. I'm concentrating on my main theory. Feel free to look  into that. If my theory falls apart I'll consider yours.

 

My opinion  without looking is that Tigraine  and Ed have 3p equity. Just laying low in order to take the shots at night.  As the game goes on they odds move into the 3p favor.

[RandA lThor]

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:08 PM, Verbal32 said:

I see no world where Towndice false claimed cop. That would run the risk of having the real cop cc, which would be a disaster.  Agreed

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My bad DPR. I read this as you seeing there's no world where Dice false claimed cop, not TownDice. Was unfamiliar with that terminology until I saw it in this thread recently, so my eyes skim past that. Verbal agreeing with this struck me enough where I re-read it. I will admit my own stupidity when it happens.

 

I will say Ithi had a decent point about scenarios where town can false claim cop to divert the bullet or roleblocker, but I think that's very unlikely, and as you mentioned, invites absolute disaster for town. I absolutely would not false claim cop as town.

 

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:08 PM, Verbal32 said:

Given the above, I see no world where mafia doesn’t use their strongman shot to kill dice. Unless, like I mentioned before, Dice has bad reads and mafia is ok letting him live and just RB him.  But yes, your interpretation is probably the most likely situation.

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Guess I disagree with both Verbal and DPR on this interestingly enough. Dice could be the actual cop, but mafia knows that he's already pretty sussed out by multiple people, and they can nullify his utility completely with their role blocker with 100% accuracy as opposed to hoping they roleblock the doc or hider (can he be roleblocked @Darthe?)

 

TLDR - I think it's a definite strong possibility (>20%) that mafia tried to shoot someone other than Dice even if he's town cop, because they can nullify him and draw attention to him.

  On 4/23/2025 at 2:26 PM, Turin Turambar said:

If you're not lying then the burden is on you to prove it. You are again throwing out old out dated meta hoping people will just go yeah that used to happen.

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Though I think you v Verbal is town v town violence, I'm fully on your side here re: outdated meta. Especially past day 1 when we have a lot of juicy tidbits to dig into.

 

I also think you confused Ithi defending Turin (which btw I believe was out of game scope and more on Heavy and/or Dice being a lil bad mannered to him) for the opposite, and if you made that mistake, similar to what you've done, you just fess up and move on. I'm trying not to factor in their dynamic between each other in this game, as I'm sure they are doing their absolute best to do the same.

[Turin Turambar]

  On 4/23/2025 at 3:22 PM, RandA lThor said:

I have two types of grouping I've done this game Turin, so let me separate the two.

 

1. I think players are linked by some action or conversation (when early D1 said at least one of Dice, IE, or Heavy was probably scum, or when I have recently said that Dice, DPR, Ithi, and Key are linked together on the wanting Marsh to get voted out yesterday).

 

2. The type I used above where I was just grouping together similar type players to summarize my reads, when I was still getting into the flow of the game. That was not meant to be a grouping used to indicate relations in the game, just people who I thought were playing similarly so far, and giving me a similar vibe. That has since changed as I've gotten a better handle of the game.

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I understand how it could be innocent,  but the particular players and my opinions on them caused it to strike a chord.