Safari mafia [basic] - game thread

[Shad_]

  On 2/11/2018 at 4:53 AM, Arie said:

(oh gods, i'm not used to 43 pages of content... 24-30 at this stage....)

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Talk to me when you've played in a 37,000 post game keekeekee

[Arie]

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It actually makes a world of sense on follow-through, too.  Like, when the lead wagon is town and no one is questioning it, wolves vote wolves for distancing.  We've all seen it happening a lot.  Cory went on to say he was ok with lynching Lenlo, so it's not like he was trying to derail that train (at least from her POV).  I could see her honestly feeling concerned about Cory for his vote here and thinking "if he's scum he probably voted his partner and Lenlo is probably a villager."  So when she popped in to swap her vote and join Cory on the AJ lynch and then appeared to feel even worse about Cory after the scum flip, it just makes a hell of a lot of sense from a town POV.

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This from Shad is enough for me to believe he is Town. Even if he changes his mind about me, I can't fault him if i say something stupid from here on.

[Shad_]

ok so the tl;dr: of that quote jumble last page is that BG basically said "it's scummy to post jokes because then you can use them to justify votes later" and I think he's just making shit up

[dicetosser1]

  On 2/11/2018 at 4:02 AM, Shad_ said:

Who made that really wonky post about "linking" a while ago and was it bgrishinko and should we lynch it?

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i saw something from aj griping about bg going on about him and linking.

 

Cant say i see it bad of BG considering AJ was scum

 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 4:26 AM, Darthe said:

I think i was actually!

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ive got Darthe as town

[Shad_]

Plus there was the whole weird business of him initially accusing AJ of it and then lol oops they were all Cory posts and I got the two of you mixed up in my head

 

I dunno like

 

derp clear denied?

[Arie]

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Why dont you like this Ninel? It IS lenlo after all.

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  On 2/6/2018 at 3:19 PM, Ironeyes said:

  On 2/6/2018 at 7:19 AM, Ironeyes said:

We're gonna build a big, beautiful village. And the scum are gonna pay for it 

 

gut liked this and what ive seen so far ive liked. 

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DICE is Lenlo's replacement and there is a bit of a defense... but also curious to see Dice step back a little from Ironeyes out of the gate like an ally. Could be a misread, but I find it interesting. 

 

What about Lenlo makes Lenlo Lenlo, Dice? This reference makes no sense to me.

[Shad_]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:00 AM, dicetosser1 said:

Cant say i see it bad of BG considering AJ was scum

 

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fwiw BG walked it back and said "oh wait no it was Cory who was scummy"

[dicetosser1]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:00 AM, Shad_ said:

ok so the tl;dr: of that quote jumble last page is that BG basically said "it's scummy to post jokes because then you can use them to justify votes later" and I think he's just making s### up

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@Shad_    

 

 

and who are u saying is making stuff up? BG?  or that thats what BG is saying about AJ?

[dicetosser1]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:03 AM, Arie said:

 

 

 

DICE is Lenlo's replacement and there is a bit of a defense... but also curious to see Dice step back a little from Ironeyes out of the gate like an ally. Could be a misread, but I find it interesting. 

 

What about Lenlo makes Lenlo Lenlo, Dice? This reference makes no sense to me.

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no it wouldnt. But it should to Ninel

 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:03 AM, Shad_ said:

 

fwiw BG walked it back and said "oh wait no it was Cory who was scummy"

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k tanks

[Ironeyes]

Wow, I open my computer with the sound on and all of a sudden this thread is making all kinds of noise. Looks like Dice managed to rustle up a lot of activity. Lemme skim real quick so I can get a feel for what's going on. Won't be here for Sunday but I'll be back and ready to rumble on Monday

[Shad_]

rip shad inno mouth

 

I had a really hard time coherently quoting it all but basically I think BG called out a number of things at the start of this game that I really struggle to believe he could have actually found suspicious.  I'm the one saying he was making things up.

 

He did get better later.

[Shad_]

Marsh lemme know where you're at on the field in general

[Shad_]

I'm going to play Danganronpa and pretend I'm in relationships with anime chicks will pop in occasionally glgl

[Arie]

So far, reading through SHAD, AJ, AMEGA and CORY, I feel that our best bets are looking closely at Lenlo/Dice and Ironeyes (Marsh). 

 

Niniel and Kaylee seem to have the least amount of eyes on, Niniel more so, so unless there is a reason why people are marking them as town, I find that distance interesting as a non-meta-reading player. 

 

Darthe I am begining to feel is a dangerous bear to poke without a really good read that gives him away one way or the other. 

 

BG I want to vote off just because of his offense in my direction and that feels more of a reactionary feeling then a genuine read.

[Arie]

And I think that's where my thoughts sit for now.

[Ironeyes]

  On 2/11/2018 at 4:31 AM, Darthe said:

Yo marsh when you read this can you tell me what you thought of amega please?

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Amega started out pinging me and just...never got better. I called him out for sounding like he had an agenda, and he blew me off and proceeded on as usual. Normally when a townie pings on D1 they trend upward as the day goes on, but he never did. 

[Ironeyes]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:08 AM, Shad_ said:

Marsh lemme know where you're at on the field in general

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Here's my list, from most town to least. 

Feeling good about you, Nin, Kaylee, and to a slightly lesser extent Dice. My gut says he'll move into solid town territory as time goes on. Darthe is probably town, but also probably the first person I'd tinfoil on. We'll save the tinfoil for later though. Arie sketches me out less than before, and BG just looks worse the more he posts. 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:11 AM, Arie said:

So far, reading through SHAD, AJ, AMEGA and CORY, I feel that our best bets are looking closely at Lenlo/Dice and Ironeyes (Marsh). 

 

Niniel and Kaylee seem to have the least amount of eyes on, Niniel more so, so unless there is a reason why people are marking them as town, I find that distance interesting as a non-meta-reading player. 

 

Darthe I am begining to feel is a dangerous bear to poke without a really good read that gives him away one way or the other. 

 

BG I want to vote off just because of his offense in my direction and that feels more of a reactionary feeling then a genuine read.

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One of the quirks of DM is that most of us have been around so long that we know each others' meta inside and out. That's how Nin kinda got a free pass. She did some stuff that's characteristic of her town game at the beginning and hasn't done anything scummy to ruin it. So in my case at least I haven't spent much time discussing her because, well, I don't have much to say. I imagine that's similar to what others would say as well. 

 

Derf's personality is determined by RNG each game right before his alignment is. That is all.    ;P

[Shad_]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:11 AM, Arie said:

So far, reading through SHAD, AJ, AMEGA and CORY, I feel that our best bets are looking closely at Lenlo/Dice and Ironeyes (Marsh). 

 

Niniel and Kaylee seem to have the least amount of eyes on, Niniel more so, so unless there is a reason why people are marking them as town, I find that distance interesting as a non-meta-reading player. 

 

Darthe I am begining to feel is a dangerous bear to poke without a really good read that gives him away one way or the other. 

 

BG I want to vote off just because of his offense in my direction and that feels more of a reactionary feeling then a genuine read.

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From my pov:

 

Kaylee is in the driver's seat and I think if she's scum in this position she really wouldn't be.  Dice says she's being too "agreeable" and I get why that would concern him, I'm just not seeing it personally and I dunno if it's a consequence of him just subbing in or /shrug.  I think she's been persistently up-front with her reads and proactively exploring people pretty much the entire game without pause, and in my (limited) experience I think that as scum she would be quite comfortable to fall into a warm cozy pocket and just sit back and watch us lynch a bunch of POE'd villagers.

 

Niniel was more of a D1 thing.  She can be (but isn't always) somewhat tonally stiff and hesitant as scum and I thought her first substantive post in this game was just really natural and independent.  When I've felt she was town pretty much straight out the gate I've yet to be wrong.  Her interactions with Cory were super pure and she lynched a wolf when she could have easily avoided it.  I haven't been feeling her as much D2, but she's also sick and I'm pretty sure that if I could ISO her the fears stemming from that would disappear.

 

I have a pretty middling track record with Dice, but sometimes when he's town it's just painfully obvious to me and so far this is one of those times.  Not much content to go on yet but I feel confident that he's going to continue to town tell.  Couple that with AJ pushing Lenlo D1 and yeah, I'm not concerned about this slot at all.

 

I talk with a lot of confidence, as you've probably noticed.  It's not that I'm blowing off the three of them for the entire remainder of the game.  I continually reevaluate my reads.  But suffice to say the level of confidence I'm at now tells me I highly doubt that should I survive to end game I will ever stop thinking they are villagers.  If they're wolves and want to prove me wrong that's cool too.  But assuming I die tomorrow, my parting advice is to trust these three.

 

I have a lingering concern that Arie isn't doing much besides sideline commentary, and that's what's holding her back from the top tier, but I see a coherent pattern of a (highly paranoid) town state of mind in what she has been doing here.  Would give her more attention than the top three, but I'm still siding town on her as of now.

 

Marsh has just felt right all game and it's a weird gut read that isn't based in much hard analysis.  He had some interactions with Amega earlier that I thought spewed him town if Amega flipped scum, and while that didn't turn out they were probably still a good look for him.  Really wish I could ISO this slot but I can't so rip.  I think it is more probable that Darthe calls him 100% town as v/v or v/w than that town!Darthe is reading him wrong or hard defending a scum mate, but I wouldn't bank the game on it.

 

Darthe and BG are the leftovers basically.  Both have done things I've liked and things I haven't.  Not necessarily scum reading them but the rest of the field looks better to me.

 

So I guess my operating principle would be to assume at least one of them is town and figure out who I'm misreading, and if everyone keeps looking villagery then roll with the original plan and have backup content on the table to reevaluate if necessary.

[dicetosser1]

@Shad_  re kaylee   its cause i just got burned by her in a lovers game. she was my lover and scum and was being very agreeable itt    i know kaylee can be like that buty i am currently paranoid of it with her

[Niniel]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:55 AM, Shad_ said:

 

From my pov:

 

Kaylee is in the driver's seat and I think if she's scum in this position she really wouldn't be.  Dice says she's being too "agreeable" and I get why that would concern him, I'm just not seeing it personally and I dunno if it's a consequence of him just subbing in or /shrug.  I think she's been persistently up-front with her reads and proactively exploring people pretty much the entire game without pause, and in my (limited) experience I think that as scum she would be quite comfortable to fall into a warm cozy pocket and just sit back and watch us lynch a bunch of POE'd villagers.

 

Niniel was more of a D1 thing.  She can be (but isn't always) somewhat tonally stiff and hesitant as scum and I thought her first substantive post in this game was just really natural and independent.  When I've felt she was town pretty much straight out the gate I've yet to be wrong.  Her interactions with Cory were super pure and she lynched a wolf when she could have easily avoided it.  I haven't been feeling her as much D2, but she's also sick and I'm pretty sure that if I could ISO her the fears stemming from that would disappear.

 

I have a pretty middling track record with Dice, but sometimes when he's town it's just painfully obvious to me and so far this is one of those times.  Not much content to go on yet but I feel confident that he's going to continue to town tell.  Couple that with AJ pushing Lenlo D1 and yeah, I'm not concerned about this slot at all.

 

I talk with a lot of confidence, as you've probably noticed.  It's not that I'm blowing off the three of them for the entire remainder of the game.  I continually reevaluate my reads.  But suffice to say the level of confidence I'm at now tells me I highly doubt that should I survive to end game I will ever stop thinking they are villagers.  If they're wolves and want to prove me wrong that's cool too.  But assuming I die tomorrow, my parting advice is to trust these three.

 

I have a lingering concern that Arie isn't doing much besides sideline commentary, and that's what's holding her back from the top tier, but I see a coherent pattern of a (highly paranoid) town state of mind in what she has been doing here.  Would give her more attention than the top three, but I'm still siding town on her as of now.

 

Marsh has just felt right all game and it's a weird gut read that isn't based in much hard analysis.  He had some interactions with Amega earlier that I thought spewed him town if Amega flipped scum, and while that didn't turn out they were probably still a good look for him.  Really wish I could ISO this slot but I can't so rip.  I think it is more probable that Darthe calls him 100% town as v/v or v/w than that town!Darthe is reading him wrong or hard defending a scum mate, but I wouldn't bank the game on it.

 

Darthe and BG are the leftovers basically.  Both have done things I've liked and things I haven't.  Not necessarily scum reading them but the rest of the field looks better to me.

 

So I guess my operating principle would be to assume at least one of them is town and figure out who I'm misreading, and if everyone keeps looking villagery then roll with the original plan and have backup content on the table to reevaluate if necessary.

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I really like this post. I’m not there when it comes to Darthe and Dice but Lenlo were the other train on D1, which I guess is a good sign for Dice. 

 

 

[Niniel]

Dice, my comment on Lenlo’s post was from early D1, right? I can’t remember what I was commenting on and I will not try and search for it on my phone. Will see if I find it when I’m on my laptop. 

 

And now now we need to sit down and have the yearly conversation where I remind you that my memory is really bad and my meta knowledge of DM players is just random. I can’t say if something is just Lenlo or Darthe or Dice. There are things I remember, like BG = fair enough :), but I can’t really decide what to remember or not.  I’m still happy if I don’t mix up players. 

[dicetosser1]

yes Niniel it was early d1   first 13 pages or so  start l;ooking around page 10 i think

 

[Kaylee]

  On 2/11/2018 at 4:22 AM, Darthe said:

Pre flip you weren't particularly scummy no.  Post flip you're back to null just cause I need to reassess.

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Fair enough

[Kaylee]

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:00 AM, Shad_ said:

ok so the tl;dr: of that quote jumble last page is that BG basically said "it's scummy to post jokes because then you can use them to justify votes later" and I think he's just making shit up

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Furthers my distrust and having him on my bottom reads. 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:03 AM, Shad_ said:

 

fwiw BG walked it back and said "oh wait no it was Cory who was scummy"

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This is what I'm talking about below. 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:04 AM, dicetosser1 said:

 

 

no it wouldnt. But it should to Ninel

 

 

 

k tanks

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I didn't understand that.

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:11 AM, Arie said:

So far, reading through SHAD, AJ, AMEGA and CORY, I feel that our best bets are looking closely at Lenlo/Dice and Ironeyes (Marsh). 

 

Niniel and Kaylee seem to have the least amount of eyes on, Niniel more so, so unless there is a reason why people are marking them as town, I find that distance interesting as a non-meta-reading player. 

 

Darthe I am begining to feel is a dangerous bear to poke without a really good read that gives him away one way or the other. 

 

BG I want to vote off just because of his offense in my direction and that feels more of a reactionary feeling then a genuine read.

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For me town reading Niniel is the D1 post that's been mentioned, and even her posts since. They're coming from a genuine place. Not forced or made up sounding. 

 

  On 2/11/2018 at 5:55 AM, Shad_ said:

 

From my pov:

 

Kaylee is in the driver's seat and I think if she's scum in this position she really wouldn't be.  Dice says she's being too "agreeable" and I get why that would concern him, I'm just not seeing it personally and I dunno if it's a consequence of him just subbing in or /shrug.  I think she's been persistently up-front with her reads and proactively exploring people pretty much the entire game without pause, and in my (limited) experience I think that as scum she would be quite comfortable to fall into a warm cozy pocket and just sit back and watch us lynch a bunch of POE'd villagers.

 

Niniel was more of a D1 thing.  She can be (but isn't always) somewhat tonally stiff and hesitant as scum and I thought her first substantive post in this game was just really natural and independent.  When I've felt she was town pretty much straight out the gate I've yet to be wrong.  Her interactions with Cory were super pure and she lynched a wolf when she could have easily avoided it.  I haven't been feeling her as much D2, but she's also sick and I'm pretty sure that if I could ISO her the fears stemming from that would disappear.

 

I have a pretty middling track record with Dice, but sometimes when he's town it's just painfully obvious to me and so far this is one of those times.  Not much content to go on yet but I feel confident that he's going to continue to town tell.  Couple that with AJ pushing Lenlo D1 and yeah, I'm not concerned about this slot at all.

 

I talk with a lot of confidence, as you've probably noticed.  It's not that I'm blowing off the three of them for the entire remainder of the game.  I continually reevaluate my reads.  But suffice to say the level of confidence I'm at now tells me I highly doubt that should I survive to end game I will ever stop thinking they are villagers.  If they're wolves and want to prove me wrong that's cool too.  But assuming I die tomorrow, my parting advice is to trust these three.

 

I have a lingering concern that Arie isn't doing much besides sideline commentary, and that's what's holding her back from the top tier, but I see a coherent pattern of a (highly paranoid) town state of mind in what she has been doing here.  Would give her more attention than the top three, but I'm still siding town on her as of now.

 

Marsh has just felt right all game and it's a weird gut read that isn't based in much hard analysis.  He had some interactions with Amega earlier that I thought spewed him town if Amega flipped scum, and while that didn't turn out they were probably still a good look for him.  Really wish I could ISO this slot but I can't so rip.  I think it is more probable that Darthe calls him 100% town as v/v or v/w than that town!Darthe is reading him wrong or hard defending a scum mate, but I wouldn't bank the game on it.

 

Darthe and BG are the leftovers basically.  Both have done things I've liked and things I haven't.  Not necessarily scum reading them but the rest of the field looks better to me.

 

So I guess my operating principle would be to assume at least one of them is town and figure out who I'm misreading, and if everyone keeps looking villagery then roll with the original plan and have backup content on the table to reevaluate if necessary.

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I have liked a few of BG's posts and Darthe seems better lately, but they're both still towards the bottom for me. 

 

Reads list:

 

Town

Shad_, Niniel

Dice - Based off of interactions with AJ and his recent posts I'm calling him town. Tone wise for recent posts. If he was anything but sketchy of more after last game I wouldn't trust him. 

 

Townish 

Arie - I've liked some of her posts and the overall feel i get is town. It's just not as strong. Nothing I've seen makes me think she's scum. 

 

Meh (Call this half town half scum)

Marsh - Honestly still unsure of. Though he's present and giving thoughts I just feel, idk, I guess gut doesn't trust. I feel like there's something I'm missing here. 

 

Bottom/ most likely scum

Darthe

BG - plus what Shad said about seeming to make stuff up. Just nor a good look. 

 

Reasons above. Of the two I feel Darthe a little less sure about. Meaning lately he has been sounding better. 

  On 2/11/2018 at 8:09 AM, Niniel said:

 

I really like this post. I’m not there when it comes to Darthe and Dice but Lenlo were the other train on D1, which I guess is a good sign for Dice. 

 

 

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Yup was thinking the same about Dice looking good for the Leno train. That and wasn't there interactions between him and AJ that make it look like AJ was trying to set him up? Damn stupid ISO not being here makes this hard to check.  

[Niniel]

@dicetosser1 Found it and thought that I had copied it. Lenlo said something that he had barely looked at his alignment. I had out of game thread suspiciouns about that based on my PM but I will not continue that thought. I will focus on game thread things. What do you think about BG?

 

 

Shad said something about the danger of getting stuck in old reads and I might be stuck in old reads. I really should have re-read but there were no time or energy for that and without iso it´s hard to go back. Still, I´m mostly interested in voting BG tomorrow. What do you think about that?