Seanchan BS? *Spoilers*

[dexterryu]

 

So in one regard, I think we're talking about two different hypothetical battles. If it was Seanchan vs Rand, then Seanchan has have an advantage. I'm talking about the combined strength of the nations 2-3 generations AFTER AMOL. I argue that the very nature of the fact that the treaty allowed the Seanchan to keep their Damane would mean that the Aes Sedai (and other channeling groups) would be watching the Seanchan like hawks because due to the threat of a life worse than slavery.

 

As far as Semi's effect on the Seanchan, you could make a similar case to Forsaken/Black Ajah manipulations on the main continent. Heck, even Artur Hawkwing was manipulated by Ishamael into his attack of the Aes Sedai. Even though Bonwhin had been antagonizing him (who know's if she was either BA or potentially being manipulated herself?) he didn't have open disdain for them until Ishy came into the picture.

 

I also disagree on Aes Sedai not being trained for battle. They all are and it's a big part of their test for the shawl. Seeing action is another story, but should the Seanchan have complete control over their won continent who would the Damane be battle hardened against themselves?

 

I don't see the WT and BT remaining completely separate in the long run either. We already saw them cross bonding each other and the benefits it could bring. I see them being strong allies.

 

As far as the books go, really the only time the Seanchan are shown as being successful in battle are via surprise attacks. Ituralde is a great example in that a well lead force (without chanellers or air support) can hold them at bay when they are unable to surprise attack with an overwhelming force.

 

At any rate, this is a fun debate :)

 

The problem with the AS is that they are bound by their Oaths. While this doesn't preclude them from helping, it severely limits their tactical options.

 

In Aviendha's visions, the key point was that the Aiel *started* the war. That is quite likely the reason the other Westland nations didn't want to get involved. The Aiel then manipulated Andor into joining the war, but there's no mention of any other nation joining as well. I suspect once the Seanchan conquered Andor and obtained cannons, they became too powerful for any other nation to oppose.

 

I am not so optimistic regarding the WT and the BT. Remember who their respective leaders are after the Last Battle: Cadsuane and Logain. Judging solely from their personalities, it is unlikely they would get along. The Aes Sedai would not discard their manipulative nature overnight, and the Asha'man would never stand for being manipulated like that. Perhaps when faced with an existential crisis, they would unite, but likely by then, it was already too late.

 

Another problem in comparing the Seanchan vs Rand is that the Seanchan are conquerors, not saviors. In TGH, Rand experienced alternate lives through the portal stone, and we've seen that although the Seanchan can conquer the world, they cannot fight back the Dark One's forces. If we look at Rand, we see him jumping frantically from Tear to the Aiel Waste to Cairhien, then Andor. He conquers but does very little nation building. The Dragon Reborn's purpose is to win the Last Battle, not to build an enduring empire. It is the Seanchan who are best equipped to do that, and that's why it makes sense that they would do so once the threat of Shadow has been removed.

 

 

The AS have been finagling their way through and around the oaths for centuries. Moreover, as Egwene did when it came to the BA they can also be changed and/or released. I'm not saying this would happen, just that given the threat worse than enslavement that they would probably consider it.

 

As for BT/WT... I can see them clashing for sure, but in the end determining that working together is greater than working separately. Especially considering the positives of cross bonding as Androl and Pevara discovered.

 

In regards to who started the war... again, I'm talking more about the strength vs strength from a military sense between the Seanchan and everyone else. There are lots of factors that could turn the tide to one side or the other such as espionage, betrayals, political manipulations, etc... Those, for the moment are quantifiable. The same is true of the skill of the generals. Both sides had good generals, but which were the best? Ituralde gave them everything they could handle without having channelers at his disposal, but what we don't know is how good the general he was facing. A big factor would be which side Mat was on since a case could be made for him to be on both sides. 

[solarz]

In regards to who started the war... again, I'm talking more about the strength vs strength from a military sense between the Seanchan and everyone else. There are lots of factors that could turn the tide to one side or the other such as espionage, betrayals, political manipulations, etc... Those, for the moment are quantifiable. The same is true of the skill of the generals. Both sides had good generals, but which were the best? Ituralde gave them everything they could handle without having channelers at his disposal, but what we don't know is how good the general he was facing. A big factor would be which side Mat was on since a case could be made for him to be on both sides. 

 

 

We could talk about a hypothetical "Grand Alliance" much like the one formed for the Last Battle, and led by the surviving Great Captains (Jagad and Ituralde, I believe?). However, the reality is that Westland nations are simply incapable of making such an alliance last.

 

Generals win battles, politicians win (or lose) wars. The Seanchan's political stability is their greatest strength, and that's what puts them on a level above the Westland nations, even if they don't have a single battle commander as talented as one of the Great Captains. Rome defeated Carthage even though Hannibal was a far more renowned and capable general than anyone Rome could field.

 

If anything, Mat would be on the Seanchan side. Oh, he would certainly oppose any plans to attack the Westland nations, just as Tuon would not start any war either. However, he is the Prince of Ravens, and would likely be leading Seanchan troops against threats like bandits, Aiel raiders, and Darkspawn remnants. He might even be leading the campaign to reconquer the Seanchan continent. All this means that his knowledge will be passed on to Seanchan officers, and instilled into the Seanchan military spirit.

Edited August 25, 2017 by SolarZ

[dexterryu]

 

In regards to who started the war... again, I'm talking more about the strength vs strength from a military sense between the Seanchan and everyone else. There are lots of factors that could turn the tide to one side or the other such as espionage, betrayals, political manipulations, etc... Those, for the moment are quantifiable. The same is true of the skill of the generals. Both sides had good generals, but which were the best? Ituralde gave them everything they could handle without having channelers at his disposal, but what we don't know is how good the general he was facing. A big factor would be which side Mat was on since a case could be made for him to be on both sides. 

 

 

We could talk about a hypothetical "Grand Alliance" much like the one formed for the Last Battle, and led by the surviving Great Captains (Jagad and Ituralde, I believe?). However, the reality is that Westland nations are simply incapable of making such an alliance last.

 

Generals win battles, politicians win (or lose) wars. The Seanchan's political stability is their greatest strength, and that's what puts them on a level above the Westland nations, even if they don't have a single battle commander as talented as one of the Great Captains. Rome defeated Carthage even though Hannibal was a far more renowned and capable general than anyone Rome could field.

 

If anything, Mat would be on the Seanchan side. Oh, he would certainly oppose any plans to attack the Westland nations, just as Tuon would not start any war either. However, he is the Prince of Ravens, and would likely be leading Seanchan troops against threats like bandits, Aiel raiders, and Darkspawn remnants. He might even be leading the campaign to reconquer the Seanchan continent. All this means that his knowledge will be passed on to Seanchan officers, and instilled into the Seanchan military spirit.

 

 

That's just it... Seanchan isn't stable. It was stable when the series started but as of now. The forsaken did a number on them too. Tuon is empress on the main continent but on Seanchan, not so much. It doesn't even say if she's recognized over there. All we know is that the "return" Seanchan are aware that the empress is dead and so is the rest of her family. We also don't know how much of the Seanchan army was dispatched as part of the return vs stayed on Seanchan.

[solarz]

 

 

That's just it... Seanchan isn't stable. It was stable when the series started but as of now. The forsaken did a number on them too. Tuon is empress on the main continent but on Seanchan, not so much. It doesn't even say if she's recognized over there. All we know is that the "return" Seanchan are aware that the empress is dead and so is the rest of her family. We also don't know how much of the Seanchan army was dispatched as part of the return vs stayed on Seanchan.

 

 

My take away from the books is that while the Seanchan empire on their home continent has been all but destroyed, the Corenne is still well-organized and largely unaffected. For a time, it was led by Suroth, but once Tuon proclaimed herself, any trace of fracture was gone.

 

The initial size of the Corenne, while massive, is not that important, because the Seanchan are recruiting and assimilating local forces. We've seen how they made extensive use of Taraboners in their campaigns.

 

In a way, the death of the Empress and the entire imperial family aside from Tuon is a "good" thing. It prevents any kind of succession war, and nobody doubts Tuon's legitimacy. The Corenne is not dependent on the Seanchan homeland for supplies, so the civil war raging back home does not have any effect on the Corenne.

[wotfan4472]

But would the Corenne be affected when the civil war on the mainland started trying to draw them into it?? The Seanchan have Traveling. All it takes is for one skirmish when Tuon decides to "check" on the situation using a gateway, and the opposing sides in the mainland civil war start hitting in Randland since they have gateways. The outcome of Aviendha's vision alters slightly if the Randland nations end up having to deal with co-ordinated attacks in Randland from both sides in the civil war if it drags on. It is only a matter of time before Tuon dies in the protracted conflict, and another victor gains the throne that ignores the treaty that was signed. If that happens then the Aiel will be forced to act, leading to what Aviendha saw. The Aiel still start the war that destroys them and leads to the Aes Sedai getting collared and all the rest unless Tuon and Mat go back to take the mainland with the Corenne.

Edited September 1, 2017 by wotfan4472

[solarz]

But would the Corenne be affected when the civil war on the mainland started trying to draw them into it?? The Seanchan have Traveling. All it takes is for one skirmish when Tuon decides to "check" on the situation using a gateway, and the opposing sides in the mainland civil war start hitting in Randland since they have gateways. The outcome of Aviendha's vision alters slightly if the Randland nations end up having to deal with co-ordinated attacks in Randland from both sides in the civil war if it drags on. It is only a matter of time before Tuon dies in the protracted conflict, and another victor gains the throne that ignores the treaty that was signed. If that happens then the Aiel will be forced to act, leading to what Aviendha saw. The Aiel still start the war that destroys them and leads to the Aes Sedai getting collared and all the rest unless Tuon and Mat go back to take the mainland with the Corenne.

 

IIRC, Traveling distance is limited by channeling strength. Thus, only a few very strong channelers would be able to open a gateway to the Seanchan continent. This would limit the amount of interaction the two continents can have.

[Sabio]

I just think both RJ and BS made big mistakes with the Seanchan.

 

Besides making them way too powerful you see instances where news should shake them and all you get is mehhh.   Path of daggers you see the guy in tears at having to report the ever victorious army lost, yet you never see any effect on them.  Damane can channel this will rock the empre to its foundation yet when its finally known, Tuon and the rest simply don't care.  Trollocs in their secure area, yet nothing after that.  No sightings. no fights, nothing in the LB.  So was sort of what was the point of that little attack?  Seanchan continent in chaos, yet why not have the forsaken use that army?  Give the LB a desperate feel I felt it lacked with Seanchan fighting Seanchan.  No matter how dire Mat tried to make the LB seem, it never felt that way to me, hell he sent away half his army to protect Tuon.

[solarz]

I just think both RJ and BS made big mistakes with the Seanchan.

 

Besides making them way too powerful you see instances where news should shake them and all you get is mehhh.   Path of daggers you see the guy in tears at having to report the ever victorious army lost, yet you never see any effect on them.  Damane can channel this will rock the empre to its foundation yet when its finally known, Tuon and the rest simply don't care.  Trollocs in their secure area, yet nothing after that.  No sightings. no fights, nothing in the LB.  So was sort of what was the point of that little attack?  Seanchan continent in chaos, yet why not have the forsaken use that army?  Give the LB a desperate feel I felt it lacked with Seanchan fighting Seanchan.  No matter how dire Mat tried to make the LB seem, it never felt that way to me, hell he sent away half his army to protect Tuon.

 

Well said, I feel the same way.

[dexterryu]

 

I just think both RJ and BS made big mistakes with the Seanchan.

 

Besides making them way too powerful you see instances where news should shake them and all you get is mehhh.   Path of daggers you see the guy in tears at having to report the ever victorious army lost, yet you never see any effect on them.  Damane can channel this will rock the empre to its foundation yet when its finally known, Tuon and the rest simply don't care.  Trollocs in their secure area, yet nothing after that.  No sightings. no fights, nothing in the LB.  So was sort of what was the point of that little attack?  Seanchan continent in chaos, yet why not have the forsaken use that army?  Give the LB a desperate feel I felt it lacked with Seanchan fighting Seanchan.  No matter how dire Mat tried to make the LB seem, it never felt that way to me, hell he sent away half his army to protect Tuon.

 

Well said, I feel the same way.

 

 

The suldam being able to channel is the biggest thing that gets blown off. It was a huge side-story in books 2, 4, and others for it to have been blown off by Tuon that way. Particularly given the case that just because suldam could be tought doesn't mean they wouldn't accidentally stumble upon it themselves.

[solarz]

 

 

I just think both RJ and BS made big mistakes with the Seanchan.

 

Besides making them way too powerful you see instances where news should shake them and all you get is mehhh.   Path of daggers you see the guy in tears at having to report the ever victorious army lost, yet you never see any effect on them.  Damane can channel this will rock the empre to its foundation yet when its finally known, Tuon and the rest simply don't care.  Trollocs in their secure area, yet nothing after that.  No sightings. no fights, nothing in the LB.  So was sort of what was the point of that little attack?  Seanchan continent in chaos, yet why not have the forsaken use that army?  Give the LB a desperate feel I felt it lacked with Seanchan fighting Seanchan.  No matter how dire Mat tried to make the LB seem, it never felt that way to me, hell he sent away half his army to protect Tuon.

 

Well said, I feel the same way.

 

 

The suldam being able to channel is the biggest thing that gets blown off. It was a huge side-story in books 2, 4, and others for it to have been blown off by Tuon that way. Particularly given the case that just because suldam could be tought doesn't mean they wouldn't accidentally stumble upon it themselves.

 

 

I have the feeling that if Jordan was still alive, he'd still be writing WOT books and this plot would have been brought up in book 15 or something. Instead, Sanderson had to wrap everything up, and this was one of the threads that got chopped.

[jack of shadows]

@solarZ,

"..only a few very strong channelers would be able to open a gateway to the 

seanchan continent."

 

not really,with the ability to link and form  circles ,individual channelers strength

is meaninless,randland channelers would be able to open gateways to the

seanchan continent at will.

[BFG]

@solarZ,

"..only a few very strong channelers would be able to open a gateway to the

seanchan continent."

 

not really,with the ability to link and form circles ,individual channelers strength

is meaninless,randland channelers would be able to open gateways to the

seanchan continent at will.

Seanchan channelers can't link though, and I doubt many free channelers would be willing to help

[jack of shadows]

whether we like it or not(and personally i don't),the seanchan empress signed

the dragon treaty,this alliance,is at best uneasy and fragile,but it's still an alliance,

so if tuon intend to quell the rebellion in her homeland,all she as to do is formally

ask the white tower for help with a few huge gateways to let her army enter the

seanchan continent,as for letting the seanchan army return to randland,well,that's

an entirely different story LOL.

[BFG]

Fair lol

[wotfan4472]

But how many damane have Alivia's strength in the One Power? The scenario I outlined is still possible if there are alot of channellers with that strength level. Also, Bair saw the same thing that Aviendha did post Merrilor. It was when Egwene met the Wise Ones that final time. Something had to have happened in the world to the Seanchan and Tuon specifically if the vision holds.

Edited September 8, 2017 by wotfan4472

[solarz]

But how many damane have Alivia's strength in the One Power? The scenario I outlined is still possible if there are alot of channellers with that strength level. Also, Bair saw the same thing that Aviendha did post Merrilor. It was when Egwene met the Wise Ones that final time. Something had to have happened in the world to the Seanchan and Tuon specifically if the vision holds.

 

What scene are you referring to? IIRC, in Aviendha's visions, Tuon died of old age.

[wotfan4472]

Bair. The war with the Seanchan still occurs, but through Bair's relatives. You are right that Tuon dies of old age, but it also depends if there is a difference in Bair's vision to Aviendha's. Her comments suggest that there are differences, and Aviendha mentions it in her POV when they first enter Thakandar.

Edited September 9, 2017 by wotfan4472

[Maedelin]

 

But how many damane have Alivia's strength in the One Power? The scenario I outlined is still possible if there are alot of channellers with that strength level. Also, Bair saw the same thing that Aviendha did post Merrilor. It was when Egwene met the Wise Ones that final time. Something had to have happened in the world to the Seanchan and Tuon specifically if the vision holds.

 

What scene are you referring to? IIRC, in Aviendha's visions, Tuon died of old age.

 

In her viewing of the future, it was mentioned that the Empress died mysteriously.  And Mat was not mentioned at all.  I think that may mean there was an assassination attempt that was successful.  The vision of the future said that they had been close to finding some middle ground with Fortuona before her passing.

[wotfan4472]

That makes me think that the Mat and Tuon outriggers would tie up that issue. It still seems like that someone or people that are fighting the civil war kill her at a critical time. Which causes the war that Aviendha and Bair see. The fact that Tuon dies differently is an indication that the future is changing. It is looking like they have a part to play helping Tuon and Mat in ending the civil war. It is Mat in particular that will alter the events if the Pattern requires that the Aiel go that way in the next age rather than now or a few years later.

Edited September 12, 2017 by wotfan4472

[dexterryu]

That makes me think that the Mat and Tuon outriggers would tie up that issue. It still seems like that someone or people that are fighting the civil war kill her at a critical time. Which causes the war that Aviendha and Bair see. The fact that Tuon dies differently is an indication that the future is changing. It is looking like they have a part to play helping Tuon and Mat in ending the civil war. It is Mat in particular that will alter the events if the Pattern requires that the Aiel go that way in the next age rather than now or a few years later.

 

Mat would be a wild card in this case because it's not known if he'll remain as lucky as he is prior to TLB. Now that that is finished with he may no longer even be Ta'veren. He'd still have all the memories that would make him an amazing general but possibly  not have the random chance in his favor that he did throughout the series.

[Sabio]

Yes he will always have the memory but seeing how Perin isn't ta'veren its likely Mat isn't either.  So the luck he has always depended on could be gone.

 

Well we know Avi's orginial vision has been altered since Rhurac died.  

Edited September 20, 2017 by Sabio

[BFG]

I think I remember reading somewhere that Mat is still taveran, most likely due to his future Seanchan storyline, but not sure how official that was.

 

And I think Mats always been lucky but he noticed it's increase after he'd been healed, but wasn't sure if it was something the Aes Sedai did or related to the dagger, so would guess he's still lucky regardless of being Taveran or not :)

[jack of shadows]

perrin drew his conclusions regarding their ta'veren status from rand,

but rand was in a middle of a body swap,so it's unclear how valid was

his assessment.

[OlwenaSedai]

First, about trains and (steam) technology: In addition to what everyone has said, about channeling abilities dwindling over time (magic and technology almost never coexist, Randland was an exception in AoL, but as you point out - who needs technology when there's magic? Without magic, though, tech becomes necessary), you also forgot something important about travelling. You have to know the place you are travelling to. The lands across the Aiel waste, are fairly unknown. Jain is one of the few who have been there, and some of the Aiel and Tuath'an. Of course, this likely changes over time, but at the time when we learn about the world, there is a lot they do not know about Shara and the other lands across the Waste. 

 

They could start building the railroad without knowing everything that lay ahead of them. Travelling is more difficult, and rare - not all channelers are very good at it.

 

Secondly, about the Seanchan. I think they are often exaggarated as a power. Strength is their only strength, to put it blatantly. What was said about channeling innovation, holds true. The Seanchan channelers will NEVER be as skilled as the Randland ones, simply because they are too afraid of the power. They see it as something dangerous that has to be controlled, and only should be used in battle situations. They don't seem to know how to weave the weather, or most of the other talents we see throughout the book, barely even healing. It was an Aes Sedai that made the a'dam, and that in itself shows this: the Seanchan need someone not afraid to explore the power, to investigate it and experiment with it, to be able to develop things like that. Randland have for centuries had female - and now also male - channelers willing to, even encouraged to, experiment and find out as much as they can about the power and its many uses. Making angreals, ter'angreals and sa'angreals, just to mention a few. Inventing weaves, inverting weaves, discovering Talents. They are much more skilled and creative with the power than the Seanchan, and this will always be so until the Seanchan start seeing the power as something else than a weapon and a threat.

 

They are also extremely arrogant and ignorant of other people's ways. It is said that Rand would've lost if he hadn't learned to adapt and to understand other cultures, the Seanchan haven't really done this. They keep trying to suppress things that go against their cultural norms, even though they pretend to be quite tolerant rulers. They are horrified at some of the customs they see, AND extremely set in their ways and beliefs. Their superstitions affect everything they do, and their almost religious reverance for their rulers... Well, none of these things are very good in socities developing and adapting. If you can't adapt to new situations and environments, you die out. It's basic evolution. And it goes for civilizations aswell as organisms.