[Basic] Peg + Cat Mafia -- TOWN WIN

[Eldrick4221]

Now just skip summer and go straight to fall plz........

This.

[Cory Caboose]

 

no night chat is a pretty standard and important rule for this sort of set-up, because it allows villagers to drop their peeks at night, robbing wolves a sincere opportunity to seer hunt during the night phase

 

anything beyond that explanation feels unncessary, considering this is a set-up that has proved very balanced (52%/48%) in a very large sample size

I'll just have to leave it at "I don't know why it matters, but balanced is a good enough reason"

 

the wolves being able to read through the day phase, compile cover & try to hit the seer directly impacts their win chances drastically; the length the seer lives has huge statistical correlation to how often town wins in this set-up.

 

by allowing night talk, villagers can leave their cover minutes from phase change, and wolves don't have that time period to try and hunt the seer and increase their win equity if they successfully bink

[Eldrick4221]

[Nynaeve]

Eldrick if a townie fake peeks a scum, they can rule that person out as seer. Also the fashion in which they do it can be telling. If all townies do it 2 mins from end of night... which would be the smart thing to do from a town pov... scum dont get that info to work with on that night. And so on.

 

Also from a town pov if x person gets shot and that person released the peek seconds before the night dl... you cant infer the whole... peek semi clearing that takes place by townies cause scum thought that person could be seer which by proxy prolly means their fake peek is correct.

 

Basically it impacts both teams. Scum more so prolly?

[Eldrick4221]

Still don't see how the first part is different than nobody leaving a peek until the next day.

 

And the second bit is a fair point, but the crux of the discussion was that having night chat hurts scum. This point doesn't support that :P

[Songstress]

Still don't see how the first part is different than nobody leaving a peek until the next day.

 

And the second bit is a fair point, but the crux of the discussion was that having night chat hurts town. This point doesn't support that :P

If nobody left a peek until the next day, and the seer was killed, we wouldn't get their peek.

[Nynaeve]

I dont care what the crux of discussion is. I still feel like it impacts the game as whole. It robs information from both sides. From scum directly and from town indirectly.

[Songstress]

But if you're still unclear on how allowing night chat negatively impacts mafia, reread and carefully think about Cory's explanation.

[Cory Caboose]

Still don't see how the first part is different than nobody leaving a peek until the next day.

 

And the second bit is a fair point, but the crux of the discussion was that having night chat hurts scum. This point doesn't support that :P

 

 

Still don't see how the first part is different than nobody leaving a peek until the next day.

 

And the second bit is a fair point, but the crux of the discussion was that having night chat hurts town. This point doesn't support that :P

If nobody left a peek until the next day, and the seer was killed, we wouldn't get their peek.

 

^^^

The purpose of seer cover is to let the seer out their peek each day (and therefore town will have it in the event of the seer getting binked) so that town will have the information should they get NKed (or lynched, for that matter).

If the seer doesn't leave their peek until the next day, what happens to that knowledge if they get binked that night?

[Cory Caboose]

Eldrick: having night chat specifically hurts the wolves, not town. It would break the game balance in favor of town potentially drastically, in fact.

 

SHC is more of just a mechanical strategy based on the set-up than a rule to be followed, since technically wolves are allowed to kill whoever they want. It doesn't have the kind of game impact the life expectancy of the seer does.

[Nynaeve]

Can we go back to f-3 while I posses Tress? Kthanks

[Eldrick4221]

You guys aren't getting what I'm trying to say. I'm not getting why it matters.

 

Let's just drop this. I don't intend to play the setup again anyway.

[Nynaeve]

Dont worry tress, it'll be as good for you as it will for me ;-)

[Cory Caboose]

I don't have the raw data, but someone did an analysis over like a 700+ game sample size and the results were something like town wins ~30% of the games where the seer is dead by n2 and over 85% of the games where they make it to d4+.

 

n3 is where the seer dies on average, and town wins in these games on average (60%ish iirc), but the seer dying early (n1-n2) happens more often then them getting particularly deep (living to d4+), hence the ~52% average.

 

#maths

[Eldrick4221]

That it's balanced is all that matters. I don't need to understand why.

[Cory Caboose]

feel free to PM me if you still want to talk about it / see if we can see eye-to-eye, but otherwise it's dropped :P

[Nynaeve]

Ok it'll probably be more enjoyable for me....

[Songstress]

*waggles eyebrows @ Nyn*

[Clovdyx]

Conversation's over, but I'm going to add my two cents, because I'm me.

 

 

Silent night is necessary or an already town-sided setup gets stupid town-sided.

[Nynaeve]

Plus you get some sleep. That's never bad, amirite??

[seph]

While I think night chat does help town, I think in most games it should be allowed seeing as how if someone from the mafia team dies they have the option to stay and help there team.

 

If a Townie dies they in no wau get to affect the outcome of the game, so why would a dead player get to continue to help his team once he is dead without a ability?

 

I know this isn't the place for a discussion about it but it is something 5hat has bothered me for a long time.

[BFG]

Lol, I actually think they ~balance each other out a fair bit, but I know Chris has thoughts on this :p

[Cory Caboose]

While I think night chat does help town, I think in most games it should be allowed seeing as how if someone from the mafia team dies they have the option to stay and help there team.

 

If a Townie dies they in no wau get to affect the outcome of the game, so why would a dead player get to continue to help his team once he is dead without a ability?

 

I know this isn't the place for a discussion about it but it is something 5hat has bothered me for a long time.

 

The night chat stuff we are discussing is explicitly tied to this particular set-up, fwiw. Night chat itself I think is fine for regular games.

 

I also personally feel that if a mafia member dies, they should not be able to communicate with their team further (since they're removed from the game), but this is more of something DM has adopted in many games as a fun factor type deal, which I have no real quarrel with. Fits DM's paradigm as a middle ground between casual and competitive mafia forums, which I think is a nice place to be :P

[Cory Caboose]

I think the value gained from having night chat as a villager and the value gained from having mafia members allowed to stay in QTs post-death are honestly pretty low impact at best (it may change some decisions, but the value gained from these decisions can be positive or negative at a random enough clip where I doubt it strongly trends either way), at least in comparison to specifically having night chat in Vanilla 13er set-up, which as Chris said breaks the game balance in favor of the village.

[Shad_]

I let wolves stay in whenever possible because I just think it's more fun that way.  It can have an impact in helping the scum team stategize and maintain motivation, sure, but town can't lose to dead wolves.