[Advanced] Lost Mafia--Game Over!

[BFG]

Great results:)

 

And confirmed cult, nbs flip had me wondering if Lenlo had been playing us :/

[Ironeyes]

Merry Christmas, both of the people I was sure were town are dead and turned. Crap. 

 

Back to the drawing board, WTL Pral, Darthe, or maaaybe Tiink just based on my impressions of the discussion that's gone on since day started. 

[Ironeyes]

I'm paranoid-edly rechecking my role PM to make sure I wasn't turned... good news is I wasn't. 

[BFG]

 

Ok, I reread that afew times. You changed mid post to me killing bop. Ok. You confused me.

 

Darthe is a decent idea for today, but I think Calder and Pral might be better ones. Really in sorta suspicious of everyone atp.

So, two turned hunters dead. That means one more remains.

 

Calder cannot be the cult leader, he didn't go anywhere d1.

 

I don't see Marsh either as he was not active d1 to turn people.

 

If we assume you are what you are, that leaves tinker, darthe, bfg and wifi. I don't see wifi smartly targeting the optimal ones bop and shad.

 

Of the above, I kind of like tinker our bfg as the likely cult leader.

Lol

[BFG]

WiFi, would love to hear your thoughts on me?

[Tiinker]

tiink:

 

you in the Ukraine or the United Kingdom??

 

I spend my holidays in Germany.

[Darthe]

[v] bfg [/v]

 

I wanna go on so many people right now.  

[Pralaya]

You shot bop? The same night I check him, with a role I have been saying all game killed cultists while you have failed to shoot every night but last night? Color me concerned and doubtful darthe.

 

Calder can't be CL, but he can be turned town cause of my check.

 

Pral is suss, wifi probs town, darthe now more suss, BFG likely wolf, Tiinker laying low.

 

Honestly there arnt many people I wouldn't lynch right now.

Wait, what? I thought you killed people when you check, not turn them town.

[Pralaya]

Another person I would like to lynch today would be Pral. Dude was real close with bop and was setting me up with Bop to lynch me today. Think he has CL equity.

You are making no sense.

 

First, why would there be a concerted push during night, bringing attention?

 

Second, if at all a push was made, why would the CL himself make it and expose himself?

 

FYI, I liked his theory and supported it

FYI, I still think you are 3rd party.

 

But there are bigger fish to fry today.

[Calder]

Even though Lenlo wanting to lynch me kinda early throws me off (considering I have no NA and 2 recruits were just killed- why are you assuming there is another recruit automatically- I am gonna chalk that up to paranoia).

 

I am gonna [v]Pral[/v]. I have not been wrong this game so far. So I have to stick to my guns.

[Pralaya]

Even though Lenlo wanting to lynch me kinda early throws me off (considering I have no NA and 2 recruits were just killed- why are you assuming there is another recruit automatically- I am gonna chalk that up to paranoia).

 

I am gonna [v]Pral[/v]. I have not been wrong this game so far. So I have to stick to my guns.

 

lol, why not? If D1 and D2 had a recruit, D3 will have one too

[Lenlo]

Pral... you havnt read anything. My role only kills TURNED. It had 0 effect on townies, wolves and possibly CLs.

 

Now I went back and read. Calder was tracked by Eldrick N1, so Calder cannot be the CL so I'm not gonna worry about that today. I'm being paranoid.

 

Next, concerted pushes at night setup Gast lynches during the day.

 

Third, CL makes the push because they expect to have an almost majority, 4 of 9 living people, in the morning. Makes for an easy lynch when 80% of the lynch is done.

 

Lastly, you still think I'm 3p after killing 3p and having revealed the existence of a 3p D1 of this game? Your angle shooting to try and get me lynched still.

 

So. I am lynching Pral or Tiink today. End of for me.

[Pralaya]

Pral... you havnt read anything. My role only kills TURNED. It had 0 effect on townies, wolves and possibly CLs.

The why did you say "Calder can't be CL, but he can be turned town cause of my check." in this post

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/99811-advanced-lost-mafia-day-4/page-151?do=findComment&comment=3742143

 

Third, CL makes the push because they expect to have an almost majority, 4 of 9 living people, in the morning. Makes for an easy lynch when 80% of the lynch is done.

Seriously?

If it was going to be 4/9, why even push at night and bring attention? Having a recruit push is one thing but as you are alleging, CL himself pushing is nonsense

 

Lastly, you still think I'm 3p after killing 3p and having revealed the existence of a 3p D1 of this game? Your angle shooting to try and get me lynched still.

 

So. I am lynching Pral or Tiink today. End of for me.

You don't kill 3p. You kill cult. NotBob was 3p.

If NotBob exists, the smoke monster exists. He would be the other 3p and I still think it is you. But, like I said, that is for later.

 

Shad flipped Character Cop. So, just by getting the character name, one can guess alignment. The game is heavily based on Lost lore.

[Pralaya]

Likely cult recruit: Calder

Likely CL: tinker/darthe

Likely scum (Other): BFG

Likely 3p: Lenlo

Likely God-knows-who: wifi

 

Sigh.

[Pralaya]

Missed Marsh. Will add him with wifi, lol

[Lenlo]

Cult is a 3P. The smoke monster existing and not being the CL and how it has to be me is pure conjecture. I am a decidedly pro town role, killing only cult.

 

Calder wasn't turned when checked, doesn't mean he couldn't have been turned in the future after the check. Ergo, townie turned cult or turned town.

 

Your misrepresenting what I said.

 

I'll repeat it. Pral or Tiink today.

[Lenlo]

Just double checked my PM to make sure of everything. I checked Darthe N1. Lol.

 

Still gonna vote Pral.

[Pralaya]

obvious bop and shad were the recruits d1 and d2

[Pralaya]

*Obviously

[Lenlo]

Sure sure. Hindsight is 20/20

[Wildfire Sedai]

Pralaya: I am concerned that our lists match so closely  

 

Likely cult recruit: Calder
Likely CL: tinker/darthe
Likely scum (Other): BFG
Likely 3p: Lenlo
Likely God-knows-who:VT wifi

Sigh.

 

 

Lenlo: yes I am. That is why I said we shall see who claims to have killed him first.  And you did.  Now what happens if darthe comes in and says he shot at bop???  I kind of loss my concentration for a minute or two.  However I believe a couple of things:

 

 

CL Tiinker - He's been staying low profile.  Not really doing much.  could also be Godfather.

cultist #3 Calder 

mafia godfather Pralaya He's been staying low profile.  Not really doing much.  could also be CL

mafia goon #1 Ironeyes

mafia roleblocker  BFG  Just about totally sure because she hasn't died yet and darthe said he went after her both nights. 

VT #5 That'd be ME  TOTALLY SURE

 

Except you forgot a couple of people: Ironeyes and yourself.  Then you put Ironeyes in the same category as me.  Poor Ironeyes.   that being said I believe that theire is a Godfather for the mafia.  I mean there almost has to be.  And I can see no one else to play that role than either you, tink or ironeyes.   The Lord Knows I would suck at that role.  

[Wildfire Sedai]

I just fell about two hours ago, again.  The damn aides don't answer the call bells and I had to go to the bathroom and I was twitching.  I knew if I went by myself I was gonna fall but didn't want to stay in bed and wet the bed and sit in it....ok a little TMI.  Anyway,  I took 2 steps with my walker and fell.  I am a little scrambled right now.  Luckily didn't hit my head, I don't think.  

[Calder]

 

Even though Lenlo wanting to lynch me kinda early throws me off (considering I have no NA and 2 recruits were just killed- why are you assuming there is another recruit automatically- I am gonna chalk that up to paranoia).

 

I am gonna [v]Pral[/v]. I have not been wrong this game so far. So I have to stick to my guns.

lol, why not? If D1 and D2 had a recruit, D3 will have one too

That is simply not true. Cults always have limits to their recruiting powers bc otherwise they would virtually always win.

 

Sometimes a number of total recruits or only being able to recruit certain characters.

 

You are playing dumb here bc it is obvious that there isnt a lock that there is a 3rd recruit. Prob less than 25% chance even.

[Darthe]

Why is there so small a chance of a cult recruit tonight iyo? All I see is power conjecture there, and maybe the chance that they recruited one of the dead folks who were both cult. Id say that improves the odds, if anything.

[Pralaya]

 

 

Even though Lenlo wanting to lynch me kinda early throws me off (considering I have no NA and 2 recruits were just killed- why are you assuming there is another recruit automatically- I am gonna chalk that up to paranoia).

 

I am gonna [v]Pral[/v]. I have not been wrong this game so far. So I have to stick to my guns.

lol, why not? If D1 and D2 had a recruit, D3 will have one too

That is simply not true. Cults always have limits to their recruiting powers bc otherwise they would virtually always win.

 

Sometimes a number of total recruits or only being able to recruit certain characters.

 

You are playing dumb here bc it is obvious that there isnt a lock that there is a 3rd recruit. Prob less than 25% chance even.

Of course, cult have limits.

 

But, in a game where cult likely has no kills, there are other factions, role heavy game - You are saying there is only two recruit limit. Haha

 

There is very, very high probability that someone got recruited last night.

 

Well, you got recruited. Unfortunate. However, you are still not the lynch today.