Ghostbusters Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Wins!

[Turin Turambar]

Zander did try to imply he was townier than me with his tone but his logic didn't match up IMO. He could have even said his start was a test to see if he could shake me and I would have let it go and just worked with him and questioned him about his thought etc looking to read him correctly and then if I thought him mafia to try to dig for teammates. His abandonment of the QT prevented that.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Good evening and good night :)

 

I got an early start as I'm working tomorrow. Ugh.

[alannalynn]

My point is that the purpose of having the QT isn't to lynch the other neighbor. It is to get the right read of the other neighbor. You do not do that by coming in and stating the other person MUST be mafia. Then abandoning the QT. That isn't how I see town operating.

 

Questions: in a private conversation between a townie and a Mafioso who has more to Lose? the townie that has no external information or the mafioso that knows alignments? Who would be more likely to make up a reason to avoid that conversation?

 

My thought is it is the Mafioso in all cases. They need to avoid giving anything away. They also need to make sure they don't contradict themselves from itt. Having somewhere else to post just makes their life more difficult. wolfing is hard enough without me asking a bunch of questions in QT (tbh I didn't get much of a chance to ask any).

You're right on that first point definitely, but I can also see a Zander POV where he's been given a new role and reads about it and realizes it's not Masons and gets paranoid. "If I'm town, then what is he?" basically.

 

Yes I'm hard defending Zander, someone has to. And I feel fairly confident in him being town. If he flips scum, then lol!me

 

As for your scenario, why post in there at all? What is the point?

 

Example: it was years ago and we were in a game with teams. There were three(?) pairs that had access to a QT. One pair was town, one was third party, and the other was mafia. The town and the third party went straight into the QT and started talking to each other because they thought that was what they were supposed to do. My partner and I had an unspoken, unplanned agreement not to say anything because we KNEW the QT would turn against each other. So we were quiet and let things unfold. The town pair turned against the 3rd party pair and they went down ITT pretty quickly. Once the town was killed off, my mafia mate and I had the QT to ourselves.

tl;dr: we KNEW we were guilty, so we didn't post, as we knew the set up would allow for us to get lynched first.

 

In this case, what I'm saying is, why post as mafia at all, and in "secret" when he would be found out regardless because he posted?

[alannalynn]

Zander did try to imply he was townier than me with his tone but his logic didn't match up IMO. He could have even said his start was a test to see if he could shake me and I would have let it go and just worked with him and questioned him about his thought etc looking to read him correctly and then if I thought him mafia to try to dig for teammates. His abandonment of the QT prevented that.

Instead he came on thread and announced you're scum?

[alannalynn]

Hi BFG, still catching up. Sorry. Apparently I'm not sleeping today, it's getting close to the time where I was supposed to wake up from my nap and start homework, so I might be dipping out soonish.

[BFG]

@Shad

 

Not a tell so much as a range. He is more likely to joke for longer as mafia, that doesn't mean serious early equals town, or jokey equals mafia. It stood out this time because he was getting serious with John early, Tsuki came in joking around and posting gifs and Zander stayed serious.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Morning

 

Zander's early seriousness is probably a good look for him?

 

And I like Dice's tone on this page, but it's all defence so I'm not sure how indicative it is of anything

Would you say he jokes longer before diving in as scum?

 

Pretty much. Zander can joke around or be serious as either alignment, but I think he's more likely to joke for longer as mafia

 

 

Doesn't jive with my memory of his scum games, but I can't be arsed to go check right now.

 

 

 

 

@Hallia 580

 

Zander becomes serious most games, but he was jokey/slow to get started in Chrono Trigger specifically, I can't remember all his mafia games, but I'm pretty sure he was slow in Belichick as well Spooooky was a different situation so I don't want to draw too much from that one. I won't say it's enough to draw a strong alignment from, but it's a positive start.

 

Dice was pretty direct, straight forward. I'd agree that he was defensive, because he was defending himself

WoW is the one that stands out to me because I read it so many times every wretched word is permanently etched into my brain, and as scum he jumped straight into the action without much joking around

 

I think it's more Z's a good enough player to not have a silly tell like that

 

 

 

 

Zander seems genuinely frustrated which I associate more with town!Zander. I'm sort of surprised by how strongly the reaction was against him following Turin's claim, considering that it's all on out of thread stuff. Difficult to have much confidence in this read while he's under pressure though

Explain why this makes it less significant

 

It doesn't? I'm surprised that everyone jumped on Zander so quickly given that the main argument is something unverifiable in thread.

[BFG]

Hi BFG, still catching up. Sorry. Apparently I'm not sleeping today, it's getting close to the time where I was supposed to wake up from my nap and start homework, so I might be dipping out soonish.

GLGL!

[BFG]

I'm trying to determine if Zander realizing his push on Turin wasn't going anywhere is a good thing or not.

 

One of the big things Zander is known for is his tunnels, and if he is as convinced that Turin is scum as he appears to be, Town!Zander wouldn't let up. He would drive this all day.

I don't think I've ever seen Zander back out of a tunnel as mafia though, so this is null at best

[Turin Turambar]

Alanna, in this scenario not posting at all in the QT while being active in thread is an immediate death sentence for mafia because a townie is obliged to go into the QT to try to accomplish one of two things:

A. Verify that the other neighbor is town. This converts a potential negative role into a positive as masons can be very powerful for town.

B. Verify the other neighbor is mafia AND then attempt to get information from them about the mafia team to be used by town.

 

Neither of these can be accomplished by never posting in the qt. The best he could hope for in that scenario is that I got lynched first because he would be outed by my death and I would have forced it to be me and him.

 

BTW, why does someone HAVE to defend him? I don't see how you could be so positive he is town at this point in the game.

[Turin Turambar]

That is also why a townie doesn't abandon the QT even if they think the other neighbor is mafia.

[Turin Turambar]

BFG, zander himself confirmed the events in the QT as I described them except for one dispute about when we each became suspicious of dice. So if the facts are not in dispute then what difference does it make that you can't read it yet?

 

Do you think we are both lying about what happened?

 

With that I'm off to bed.

[alannalynn]

Alanna, in this scenario not posting at all in the QT while being active in thread is an immediate death sentence for mafia because a townie is obliged to go into the QT to try to accomplish one of two things:

A. Verify that the other neighbor is town. This converts a potential negative role into a positive as masons can be very powerful for town.

B. Verify the other neighbor is mafia AND then attempt to get information from them about the mafia team to be used by town.

 

Neither of these can be accomplished by never posting in the qt. The best he could hope for in that scenario is that I got lynched first because he would be outed by my death and I would have forced it to be me and him.

 

BTW, why does someone HAVE to defend him? I don't see how you could be so positive he is town at this point in the game.

This is why I asked you how you think Zander works. He needs ITT evidence, he has to show off what's going on to make a point.

 

What could town!Zander have gathered from wolf!Turin in the QT if he's already made up his mind that Turin is wolf and needs to take it to the thread?

 

I'm not doing it because I HAVE to, I'm doing it because I think I'm right. Probably 80-85% he's town. That's like a solid B/B-, not bad odds

 

Clearly I'm going to look like an idiot if Zander flips wolf, but I'm willing to take that risk

[BFG]

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/97808-ghostbusters-mafia-day-1/page-43?do=findComment&comment=3638625

 

What do you mean by TMI?

[dicetosser1]

@laine   I said at the outset of all this i wanted to hear from Zander. nothing he has said has made me go "ohhh thats scummy!"  i have nothing to point at thats making it obvious hes scum.

 

his tone is frustrated but hes not doing one thing i use to pick him as mafia.

 

i just dont know if he is scum. So im gonna let it get sorted by the cop.

 

 i dont think turin is given the way he claimed and his arguments for his case

 

 

 

and in case of derpness  i hope any doc role realises they have to protect tsuki tonight

[dicetosser1]

Alanna = Town

 

 

was very impressed with that catch up even if shes voting the wrong person

[alannalynn]

#764 Eldrick re: Rey. I remember Rey's 1/4 post but let it slide since I don't exactly know his playstyle. I think a lot of Rey sliding by early game was on activity and tone, imo. I don't think he's successfully kept up that level of commitment and tone though, which is worrisome. Some new content and 1-1 interaction should solve his slot pretty easily. This is pretty much said by RTE around #809... #TOAN

#765 Eldrick's WTL is growINGGG

#775 Don't hate this post from Niniel...

Zander's posts looking much better on pg40

#788 is a townie post from Eldrick (y)

#796 Isn't a BAD post from RTE, but pretty consensus-y, again. One thing in the middle that I want to comment on though: what second largest train would Zander have moved to? It wouldn't have mattered how hard Zander hammered at Turin this day phase, Zander is never going to lynch Turin and that's that. So I really don't judge Zander form moving off Turin and exploring other avenues. What I personally don't understand is why inactive RTE instead of scummy!Dice who he's said he believes is scum. That's kinda sitting weird with me a bit.

#820 @BFG Those early reads were general feelings, I felt that Zander was coming off townie in his responses but in regards to that instance McClane was talking about, THAT was null. As for the negative point, that was disregarded with further reading, so 136-142.

The second part of that is just organized poorly. I was feeling meh about Shad and didnt' want to push him, wanted to "sit back and watch him for a bit". The " " section is what was being applied to Zander, not the pushing. Probably doesn't help that I grouped them together, but Zander wasn't a strong lean at all by that point either.
 

@Hallia 580

Zander becomes serious most games, but he was jokey/slow to get started in Chrono Trigger specifically, I can't remember all his mafia games, but I'm pretty sure he was slow in Belichick as well Spooooky was a different situation so I don't want to draw too much from that one. I won't say it's enough to draw a strong alignment from, but it's a positive start.

Dice was pretty direct, straight forward. I'd agree that he was defensive, because he was defending himself

I'm missing context here when you mention CT and Belichick games. Are you saying that he HAS a slow start and it's scummy or something else?

#837 OMG! At the bottom of a BFG list!!!
Yooo I like your list besides me and Eldrick though, so that's okay. I find it interesting that you have a differing opinion on Turin, I'd like to see more about that if you haven't already posted.

You say my reaction to Tsuki's claim isn't believable? I'm still friggin pissed about it. We have a potentially three PRs outed on d1, one of them the cop. That's ridiculous.
 

Laine is consistently my hardest read :/

#880 LOLOLOLENLOO

 

I am here, still, and able to read. Don't expect any WoT from me, though.

Turin is Town regardless of flip, IMO.

BFG, RTE, Hallia, Niniel, Rey - Null to scummish (not in any order
Alanna - Scummish
Zander - Town/3d Party
Lenlo - Null to Townish
Turin, Dice, Eldrick, Shad - Townish
Tsuki - Town Confirmed

Explique?

 

And with that, I'm pretty much caught up. 

[BFG]

BFG, zander himself confirmed the events in the QT as I described them except for one dispute about when we each became suspicious of dice. So if the facts are not in dispute then what difference does it make that you can't read it yet?

 

Do you think we are both lying about what happened?

 

With that I'm off to bed.

Basically, you're arguing that Zander's thought process about hiding his identity and not interacting in the QT isn't townie. And also that you said in the QT before anyone posted in thread about suspicion of DIce. Zander agrees with the first and disagrees with the second.

 

The second is more concerning, because it suggests one of you must be lying, BUT it's a dumb thing to lie about as either alignment so

 

The first, not posting, is null. In one of my first games there were 2 pairs of lovers, one t/t the other t/m, the t/t QT had 'some' posts the t/m had lots. I don't understand why Zander felt the need to keep his identity secret, but I didn't understand why he claimed IC at the start of D1 in GnD, and I'm not sure its important

 

I almost don't care about what actually happened in your QT, the reactions ITT are pretty interesting though. it seems odd that Zander had (almost) no support when this started, that so many people apparently believed you with little hesitation

[BFG]

Sorry Laine if it helps the bottom list isn't sorted

[alannalynn]

@laine   I said at the outset of all this i wanted to hear from Zander. nothing he has said has made me go "ohhh thats scummy!"  i have nothing to point at thats making it obvious hes scum.

 

his tone is frustrated but hes not doing one thing i use to pick him as mafia.

 

i just dont know if he is scum. So im gonna let it get sorted by the cop.

 

 i dont think turin is given the way he claimed and his arguments for his case

 

and in case of derpness  i hope any doc role realises they have to protect tsuki tonight

I feel the same way with Zander. I think he's town and he done effed up and there's nowhere he can really go at this point because of Turin-tunnel. But independently, I haven't liked your reactions this game and they've made you come off rather scummy. There were some points that I liked from you, but they were outweighed by negatives in the end, I think I mostly laid out where I had issues i my catchups. Competing trains better for town anyways, mehh

 

I think there is a low chance Turin is mafia but it is still possible. Wolf!Turin could have jumped on the opportunity to destroy Zander and that's exactly what he's doing, but that's also a town!Turin thing. What is helping Turin is that he's independently townie and has been from the start of the game. Besides that, he's been rather calm through these explanations and #TOAN.

 

IF we don't lynch Zander today, I would hope that Tsuki views him so that we don't go into tomorrow with the same argument. We can't have another day of Turin v Zander, that's just not productive. And the doc BETTER protect tonight.

 

Alanna = Town

was very impressed with that catch up even if shes voting the wrong person

..... that was a lot of words and took a lot of hours

[alannalynn]

Sorry Laine if it helps the bottom list isn't sorted

oh. sure. ok

[alannalynn]

It seems to have quieted down... I'm going to take a short nap and get back to this or hw or something soon so I'll be back y'all

[BFG]

Ok, in general I think Zander is more likely to have a slow start as mafia than as town, it's a 'read' I put about as much faith in as saying that early game play makes you town. This game he was serious pretty quickly, and maybe more tellingly stayed focused when Tsuki came in posting gifs. Does it mean anything, not really, it gave me early good feels that were overwritten by stronger stuff later.

 

In CT I remember lots of gifs early on in response to AJ, I also think he was pretty spammy in Belichick - although that game had a very spammy start so may not be as telling, he never got serious in Spooooky. Shad says he was serious quickly in Wow and I don't really doubt it. But I have to go back a way to remember a town game he was spammy in, I think before GnD anyway.

[BFG]

Regarding Turin; he doesn't seem as paranoid(?) as I expect, his suspicion has seemed pretty fixed on Dice/Zander all game, I'm used to it being more flexible(?) not sure they're the words I'm looking for :/

[BFG]

Turin's actions regarding the whole thing aren't logical from a mafia POV and that's probably more telling than the other stuff though.

[BFG]

 

 

Ugh, even writing this my opinions change a lot

 

Tsuki

 

Lenlo

Zander

Hallia

Shad

 

Turin

Dice

 

Niniel

Eldrick

Rey

RTE

Laine

 

 

 

Lenlo feels engaged particularly the discussion with Zander

 

Zander seems genuinely frustrated which I associate more with town!Zander. I'm sort of surprised by how strongly the reaction was against him following Turin's claim, considering that it's all on out of thread stuff. Difficult to have much confidence in this read while he's under pressure though

 

Shad's been digging in and seems to be ramping up, he's asking a lot of questions about Zander/Turin and doesn't seem predetermined to an answer but I don't recall a stance yet.

 

Feel good about Hallia, her read through feels pretty transparent,

 

I'm not feeling as confident about Turin as I'd like and probably want to think on it for a while. The early cases are null/townish for Turin. I think the thing that bugs me is how focused he's been on Dice/Zander, I'd expect a broader focus than this. Against that is the claim, and Turin has very much built it to him vs. Zander and I don't think that comes from mafia very often.

 

Dice is mixed, his vote on Turin just felt like town! Dice and some of his 'stubbornness' (that's not the word I'm looking for, but I can't think of a better one right now), but the Dice/John stuff was weird and I know he fools me tonewise when he's defending himself.

 

 

Remaining 5 is really just that I have least reason to think they're town.

 

I'm not sure I buy Laine's reaction to Tsuki's claim, but I could follow her catch up posts easily enough, she hasn't hit any of the town tells I trust for her yet. Don't remember much from RTE, Rey's pretty null, he seems to have dropped off, but that may just be due to the weekend, I liked his early tone/comfort level in thread, but I don't remember enough of his stances. I want to say that Niniel's level of engagement is good as is taking early stances, but I don't read her well early game. Eldrick's level of engagement is good at a surface level, but needs to be sustained before I'll trust it, need to ISO for specific stances.

 

 

Why is Eld so low on your list? What do you mean "good at a surface level". I don´t like that he left Zander but before that he was one of my strongest town reads.

 

Laine has been high on my list too but she is moving down right now. She hasn´t contributed with something for a while. I´ll see what she has tomorrow.

 

Who are you planning to vote?

 

Eldrick isn't someone I can read quickly because of high levels of engagement, it needs to be sustained for a while.

 

Actually feeling reasonably good about Laine right now, I like her stance on Zander

 

And I don't know, I'm not feeling anyone particularly scummish right now and I hate voting because of POE