Age of Legends [standard] Mafia - Game Over

[Zander?]

 

Clov, help me out here. You've said a couple of times that the game is pretty much won... but I'm not feeling as confident.

 

 

What are you thinking?

 

I'm thinking it's 7-2, and the only person giving particularly solid cover is dead, so it's time for me to hardclaim cop.  

 

N0 - Thane town

 

Reasoning: Randomized town

 

N1 - Dicetosser town.

 

Reasoning: After Crusher's flip, I was extremely confident that AJ and Nyn were town.  Like, I could not fathom either of them being mafia; I was obviously correct about AJ, and if Nyn's mafia here, then seriously...she wins this game every time.  Exceptional towntelling, great tone, good placement on Crusher's lynch, Crusher's opportunistic push on her.  I was pretty shocked when IR flipped town, but I would be more shocked if Nyn is mafia here.  This is as close to a peek as I can get without one.

 

I've already stated multiple times why Nolder made no sense for Crusher's teammate.  The only way that I could have seen him being mafia is if Shad was ALSO mafia and Nolder decided Shad had a better chance to win the game than Crusher.  Well, that, or Crusher hooked up with Nolder's girlfriend or mother.

 

Kivam was an unlikely, but not impossible, teammate.  In any case, I wasn't going to peek him after he directly contributed to a mafia lynch, who also went at him.  I'm not going to ignore the possibility of a two-way bus now that we're in POE territory, but it was't worth it then.  I'm still reasonably comfortable with my thinking that Mafia!Alanna lets it go random, rather than putting the nails in a teammate's coffin, and praying it took out Shad.  

 

That means my POE for my peek (and the remaining two mafia) was Shad, Calder, Zander, Dice, and Hallia.  I knew I wasn't going to peek Shad or Calder, because they were NEVER going to be teammates with one another; we could resolve by lynch, and a mafia flip would spew the other.  This was also true for Zander-Shad.  

 

Meanwhile, Dice and Hallia could have been teammates with eachother, or any of the other three.  Hallia was my strongest mafia suspect, so I didn't see how it was beneficial to peek her; if she came up guilty, I'm just lynching who I intended anyways.  If she's town, that's a clear player, but her being town automatically bumped up everybody else's chances.  This left Dice.  He was a reasonable enough suspect because he wasn't being super obviously town  - something a lot of people think he is, when is IS town - and he fit with the most number of teams.

 

Why I lied about peeking Alanna at EoD2: He died.  If I caught a bullet, it would SHC Alanna, which would have been pretty much as productive as actually peeking her.  If she was mafia, the odds I catch a bullet N2 over someone with correct peeks was pretty low, so there was minimal risk of "confirming" Mafia!Laine as town.

 

N2 - Shad town.  I really had no idea what to do here, but Calder's flip was a huge contributor to this.  I would have locked Shad clear with the mafia!Calder flip, but obviously we didn't get that.  With Zander presumably having been town, that means both of Shad's biggest pushers were town...didn't think the odds of Shad/Zander/Calder ALL being town were particularly high.  I briefly considered going Nolder here, but Nolder's biggest chance to be mafia was Shad being mafia as well (this goes back to him tying Mafia!Crusher with Unflipped!Shad D1).  If my Shad peek came back guilty, I would have bumped Nolder up to suspect #3 (behind Hallia and Shad, himself).  

 

Also considered Alanna, but I was probably most comfortable with her of remaining candidates, so a town result wouldn't have put us in much better of a position than we already were.

 

 

This means, barring an absolute deepwolfing from Nyn or SUPER!FPS play from Zander, we have five confirmed townies: me, Thane, Shad, Zander, Nyn.  This leaves four suspects: Hallia, Laine, Kivam, and Nolder.  We have two mislynches to give.  If we do NOT lynch within my confirmed townie pile (and I have not miscleared anyone...I'm pretty damn positive I haven't)....town literally cannot lose this game.

 

Game.  Is.  Locked.

 

 

 

I'll sit here and wait for one of the mafia to counterclaim.

 

hmmmm......

 

 

GJ Clov.

I don't agree on Xander but he's not one of the wildcards I'm most concerned with anyway so wasn't planning on lynching him tomorrow regardless.

 

Also it's times like these I wish we were playing hybrid hammer lol.

This game probably could have been over by now if we could just hammer people.

 

Really?  Why are you tinfoiling on me?

[Kivam]

Zander - shad was peeked by both clov and me. He's not getting lynched today. Move on

[Zander?]

 

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

 

 

LOL  sour puss?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

 

 

Question her on anything and everything.  :)

 

 

 

[Clovdyx]

 

 

I feel better now. lol

 

 

Question. Out of those four.... what order would you place them?  Halli is first for me. But I'm conflicted about the remaining three.

 

 

 

Also, can you explain your read on Zander. It's not that I don't agree... I have a good feeling about him. But I don't have the best track record at reading him and I wanna know your rationale.

 

I legitimately don't care.  I guess Hallia, Kivam, Laine, Nolder, but it doesn't matter.  I'm trying to win the game, and the only way that doesn't happen is if I miscleared you or Zander went with an insanely suboptimal route and got massively lucky.

 

 

Prolly dont need to talk about my love life ITT.

 

 

Probably need to talk about it in Chatz though.

[Zander?]

 

 

 

I feel better now. lol

 

 

Question. Out of those four.... what order would you place them?  Halli is first for me. But I'm conflicted about the remaining three.

 

 

 

Also, can you explain your read on Zander. It's not that I don't agree... I have a good feeling about him. But I don't have the best track record at reading him and I wanna know your rationale.

 

I legitimately don't care.  I guess Hallia, Kivam, Laine, Nolder, but it doesn't matter.  I'm trying to win the game, and the only way that doesn't happen is if I miscleared you or Zander went with an insanely suboptimal route and got massively lucky.

 

 

Prolly dont need to talk about my love life ITT.

 

 

Probably need to talk about it in Chatz though.

 

 

 

okok you talked me into it...

 

[Zander?]

Zander - shad was peeked by both clov and me. He's not getting lynched today. Move on

 

 

perhaps

[Kivam]

Dude even if s/o hardclaimed a scum peek on him he'd wait for tomorrow and we'd lynch from the unviewed. That's the kind of mathematical edge we have. Move on

[Zander?]

Dude even if s/o hardclaimed a scum peek on him he'd wait for tomorrow and we'd lynch from the unviewed. That's the kind of mathematical edge we have. Move on

 

 

fwiw i posted a list on people id be willing to vote.

 

[v] unvote [/v]

[Kivam]

didn't see it.  Will look for it as I do tonight's read

[Zander?]

didn't see it.  Will look for it as I do tonight's read

 

glgl

[Clovdyx]

You guys want to see a fun example of a scum driven CFD?

[Clovdyx]

You guys want to see a fun example of a scum driven CFD?

 

With 15 alive, it's 8 to lynch!  

[Kivam]

Peek List:

 

1. AJ, Joar Addam Nessosin, VT, killed Night 2, - Thane, Zander
2. Hallia - Kiv
3. Kivam - Clov, Shad, Nyn
4. Thane
5. Clov - Shad
6. Crusher, Mesaana, mafia goon, lynched Day 1
7. Zander
8. Laine - Dice
9. Calder, Lillen Moiral, VT, lynched Day 2 - ____, Shad
10. Nolder
11. Shad
12. Nyn
13. Dice, Tel Janine Aellinsar, VT, killed Night 1 - Zander

 

that's all i could find using the thread search (which sucks, btw, there were obviously missing posts) and i seriously overestimated my ability to stay awake for a read tonight after the weekend I had.  If people could fill in their own list, that would be great.

 

[Shad_]

I got mixed in to some gamergate crap today and it took up a tremendous amount of my time. Basically someone contacted me out of the blue asking me to leak a few years worth of irc logs. The whole thing is a convoluted mess and I feel like I'm playing IRL mafia. I doubt I'll be doing ISOs before deadline but we'll see what the morning brings.

[BFG]

Good morning :)

[BFG]

Official VC 3.6

 

Hallia (2): Nolder, Thane

 

Not Voting (7): Hallia, Kivam, Laine, Shad, Clov, Nyn, Zander

 

 

 

 

 

 

[unvote] until I've relooked at things in light of the last few pages.

 

 

[unvote]  

 

Join me, Nyn?

 

 

[unvote]

 

 

 

Dude even if s/o hardclaimed a scum peek on him he'd wait for tomorrow and we'd lynch from the unviewed. That's the kind of mathematical edge we have. Move on

 

 

fwiw i posted a list on people id be willing to vote.

 

[v] unvote [/v]

 

 

[Nolder]

I just woke up. What's going on?

[Nolder]

Looks like a bunch of nothing.

[Nolder]

I got mixed in to some gamergate crap today and it took up a tremendous amount of my time. Basically someone contacted me out of the blue asking me to leak a few years worth of irc logs. The whole thing is a convoluted mess and I feel like I'm playing IRL mafia. I doubt I'll be doing ISOs before deadline but we'll see what the morning brings.

Was it related to Srh?

[Thane Vakarian]

interesting events

 

*hands Clov a drink*

[Thane Vakarian]

i think I shall keep my vote where it is, and i think that at this point we should use Clov's POE to lynch from.

[Nynaeve]

Morning

[Kivam]

So ... doing my reread now.  Living players and some thoughts on them:

 

Kiv: Me.

 

Clov: Good content, and my N0 peek.  Otherwise, I'd be tinfoiling on the possibilities of a Clov-Zander scum team (see below) and the fact that Clov knew Calder was the type of player to lolcat as town but didn't call it out on-thread before the lynch went through, IIRC.

 

Shad: N1 peek.  Good content, iffy in the early back and forth with Calder but rapidly settled in as solid town

 

Nyn: N2 peek, good content, good (sincere) reactions to my early play, seems like she's trying to solve 

 

Zander: Should be SHC.  The players in this game that I could see going for the high variance play of NKing a townie on N1 who had miscleared scum with their peek would be me (I know I'm town), Calder (flipped town), and Clov (N0 peeked town).  Even if Shad wasn't my N1 peek, he's not into that kind of play, especially early (as he said, he rejected a high variance play in PYP when I suggested it), and it doesn't strike me as Thane, Hallia, or Nolder's style.  I'm a bit less certain about whether Nyn would have tried that as scum, especially given her lack of deep understanding of the impact of seer cover, but again, she's peeked town so I don't have to worry about it. 

 

In other words, Zander is probably only scum if the team is Crush-Zander-Clov, and since that's impossible, Zander is SHC.  Only reason he's not blue is because I'm not yet ready to hardclaim, and I haven't viewed him. With 3 other living townviews, I'll be viewing Zander tonight; unless scum kill me, the game will likely be mechanically locked tomorrow with me and at least 3 townviews alive.

 

One other note: After Clov discussed Zander being SHC D2, the scum killed AJ, who claimed a N1 peek on Zander .  That has the look of a team trying to seer hunt while simultaneously avoiding SHCing too many players, so they hit someone who also had picked Zander ... but it could also be trying to misclear Thane using the logic already posted on-thread.

 

That leaves Hallia, Thane, Nolder, and Laine

 

Thane: Gets a light green town.  Should be SHC, but the AJ kill could also very easily be a reaction to the on-thread discussion of SHCing Zander (particularly if the scum team hadn't run the numbers and figured out for themselves how important killing the real seer was at that point).  Tone still strikes me as off and he hasn't contributed much (which is not the town!Thane I recall), but for now I'm willing to defer to people who know him better.

 

That leaves me looking in the group of Hallia/Nolder/Laine, who I'll be focusing on during this reread

 

Peek List:

 

1. AJ, Joar Addam Nessosin, VT, killed Night 2, - Thane, Zander
2. Hallia - Kiv
3. Kivam - Clov, Shad, Nyn
4. Thane
5. Clov - Shad
6. Crusher, Mesaana, mafia goon, lynched Day 1
7. Zander
8. Laine - Dice
9. Calder, Lillen Moiral, VT, lynched Day 2 - ____, Shad
10. Nolder
11. Shad
12. Nyn
13. Dice, Tel Janine Aellinsar, VT, killed Night 1 - Zander

 

that's all i could find using the thread search (which sucks, btw, there were obviously missing posts) and i seriously overestimated my ability to stay awake for a read tonight after the weekend I had.  If people could fill in their own list, that would be great.

 

[Clovdyx]

i think I shall keep my vote where it is, and i think that at this point we should use Clov's POE to lynch from.

I think so, too.

[Clovdyx]

Is it bad if I demand a war between Hallia and Alanna?