Avatar The Last Airbender Town and SK wins!

[Eldrick4221]

Sorry John. I gave it more thought, from the perspective of mafia. If you know who's town, then you know they're telling the truth, as a PR won't fake claim VT. It hurts their later reveal.

[John Snow]

Snow, do you think zander claiming was a mistake or do you think it is a fake?

 

I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't like it. The closest thing I can guess is that it was an act of paranoia/panic. It bears looking into/further thought. 

[John Snow]

Sorry John. I gave it more thought, from the perspective of mafia. If you know who's town, then you know they're telling the truth, as a PR won't fake claim VT. It hurts their later reveal.

Bingo.

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

 

 

I feel like Seph is one I'd like to see live beyond D1, because I find his posts as of right now more like he's trying to find his way in the game and make his play his own. He doesn't feel at all like he has an agenda like he did after he returned as mafia in his first game. 

 

I also find Tress' posts to ring town to me, because she seems genuine in her frustration. 

 

As for Turin I need some more time to read him more accurately. 

 

I think I'd like to take a look at Ithi's posts and see if there is anything there now to start with. 

 

This is not comforting.

 

Ok. Why?

 

 

Seph looks more inconsistent than the others...thoughts on Thane?

[鲍勃不是我的名字]

 

@Eldrick

It does however reduce the number of targets for the mafia, increasing their chance of blind shooting a PR

Hence why you don't mass claim/claim until you're L-1 or 2

I fail to see how claiming VT in a basic game will do that. Who's going to believe a D1 VT claim?

 

 

Me.

 

All other claims from him results in lynch all liars.

[Turin Turambar]

 

Ithi, I think the whole discussion about the first 24 hours of the game may be a moot point, but I believe I mentioned before that I didn't see your normal self in those posts, like most other people also have picked up on.

 

I do find it odd that Turin would tell everyone to just disregard everything you did during that period. This is the same Turin who takes the "Ithi is always Town"-stance, so it seems odd he would say that. Here's the post for reference:

 

 

 

 

@Seph. Yesterday yes she did or she wasn't interested in the game. The post you just quoted was from her this morning (8 hours ahead Of me anyway). She is now in the game. Do you see the difference? I would recommend disregarding everything from yesterday as it was not indicative of her alignment.

 

Again you choose to trust me on this or not. But you did previously ask my opinion on the matter. Why do that if you intend to ignore said opinion?

 

Personally I just don't understand how Turin can dismiss it so completely as not alignment indicative unless he knew what her alignment was.

 

**snip**

 

I'm also interested in how Eldrick identified a teeny tiny part of your post and also pointed out the exact timestamps that could make it seem you'd started your post before Tress posted her vote. Why on earth would he go to all that trouble to defend you, do you think? It was a very specific thing he found. There are two options ... either you're both mafia and you asked him to point that out on your QT, or he's Mafia and you're being played and he's defending you to look more Town.

 

Which do you think it is?

 

Here you seem fairly sure that Eldrick is mafia, and yet you voted for seph and have kept your vote on him. It seems like you're saying regardless of Seph's alignment, Eldrick must be mafia. Why wouldn't you then vote for Eldrick if he is the one you're most sure of?

 

 

 

****snip****

 

Let's play the AJ asks other people for their opinions drinking game

 

1. @NotBob - Why Eldrick?

2. @ seph - Could you give me some examples of what you think his normal villager/wolf actions would be?

3. @John Snow how strong of an indication do you think the 'vote after someone else does first' thing is?

4. @ Seph What's your opinion on Snow voting you?

5. @Turin - Any other thoughts outside of Ithi for now?

6. @Zander What sort of goodness is Cory filling your head with? It's a bit late for joke votes at this stage. Has anything stood out to you so far?

7. Is there anyone you would purpose we start with @Turin ?

8. @Ithi - What's the beef? (although he has actually followed up on this question)

9. @ Turin could you answer this? (I think this was about which inactives Turin would Lynch)

10, @Ithi - what is your opinion of Not Bob, anyway?

11. @ Turin - Any reasons for Snow? (this is a follow up question to the who would you lynch as an inactive question)

12. @Seph, how does Zander's claim affect your read?

 

 

Now have a look at the positioning of votes in the game.

 

Official Vote Count

 

Ithi (1): Tress

Seph (2): John Snow, Ithi

Tress (1): Turin

Eldrick (1): Not Bob

Zander (1): Nol

Not Bob (3): AJ, Thane, Seph

 

Not Voting (3): Zander, Sooh, Eldrick

 

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

 

Deadline is Thursday April 30th @ 4pm.

 

Countdown timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150430T16&p0=3862&fg1=80c2da&fg2=99dbd4&msg=End+of+D1&csz=1

Consider how useful those question have been to the game, who they're focusing on and who they're avoiding? Also think about just how drunk you'd be if you ever played the AJ random question game. Who gets fluff and who gets questions? Who is the subject of those questions? And now see all three of them voting for Not Bob and trying to encourage others to see that as a viable train by asking what we think of Not Bob.

 

Finally go through the posts and see how often he actually seems to respond or care about getting an answer. Not many times - I counted twice of the top of my head.

 

We should be voting Seph for now, as I think AJ is providing cover and trying to push another candidate to prevent the Seph lynch. AJ is Mafia too, in my eyes ... so I wouldn't mind a counter train on AJ to see what happens there. I think Thane might be Mafia as well and I've got the heebie jeebies about Eldrick.

 

This post might go to crap when I try and actually submit it lol.

So basically you think that several mafia are running a counter train to the one on Seph? Would that be considered good play from the mafia team if so? I thought generally the scum 101 said you'd be better off splitting your votes between existing trains?

Anyway... that's what I got from looking more closely at Ithi's posts.

1.) I can ignore that segment because as I think I showed in my reply to tress Ithi was emotionally compromised to the point that the game was unimportant. She wasn't actually.playing the same game as the rest of us. (I include myself because I was walking the line between getting her settled and playing some). I'm town so I do not know her alignment in that I haven't seen her role PM. Her play since she actually started playing has me putting her as town however.

 

2.) Why Seph over Eldrick? I dunno. My guess tho ID that the body if Seph's posts are worse.

 

3.) Mafia will do whatever they thunk will help them win. It might be going all in on a wagon. It might be defending each other hard and town reading each other. Why? Because "mafia would never do that" actually works as a defense sometimes And sometimes it is important to try to protect a mafia buddy. For all we know Seph is the one mafia pr so they want him to live today.

 

I'm finding it unsettling that you are pushing against the people going at AJ and Seph while also defending Seph and AJ.

[Andrej]

I feel like Seph is one I'd like to see live beyond D1, because I find his posts as of right now more like he's trying to find his way in the game and make his play his own. He doesn't feel at all like he has an agenda like he did after he returned as mafia in his first game. 

 

I also find Tress' posts to ring town to me, because she seems genuine in her frustration. 

 

As for Turin I need some more time to read him more accurately. 

 

I think I'd like to take a look at Ithi's posts and see if there is anything there now to start with. 

 

I agree with you on Tress, I got the same impression earlier when she was posting. I have her trending up in my list

[Andrej]

[unvote]

 

[V] AJ [/v]

 

You might want to start bussing seph if you want to live.

 

I am all for AJ / Seph competing trains.

 

I can see them both as mafia. AJ feels like he is taking the role Cory played in that last BT game. running interference for Seph when he stepped in it early.

 

Seph. I don't see how you are coming from a town place right now.

 

Firstly, get outta here with the ultimatum dude lol. I'll do as I please with my vote and putting it onto someone who I think is town isn't a function of it that I tend to use a lot.

 

Bold: I think it's pretty obvious. I'm gonna MQ some of his posts from this evening to give you a pretty clear example of how obviously town he is. You just need to open your eyes and feel to see it.

 

As far as me running interference, speculate all you want. My job is to lynch bad guys and when I think somebody is a bad choice I will say so. I know that I am town and at this point it would take seeing Seph flip mafia before I started to believe it.

 

 

 

Yea dice will probably smack me when he gets back.

Honestly at this point I feel like either we are just reading each other very very badly, and not meshing.

it has all looked very scummy to me, maybe I have been reading to many wiki sights... but that is how I feel, and I don't seeing anything changing that.

 

"Honestly at this point"

 

That statement alone clearly broadcasts his level of irritation, or annoyance, or even disbelief at the attention he was getting for stuff that he knew is bull.

 

Yea, that was said. I wan't goin to lynch the guy over that. AS I STATED THAT AS WELL.

 

Snapping back a little in exasperation. I can totally see him rolling his eyes muttering "FFS.." as he types it. I think this was in response to Eldrick.

 

 

Turin you mafia to huh?

No. You are tho. Give up your mafia buddies and maybe we let you live today.

 

A little goading here just to put things into perspective for the tone of Seph's posts.

 

Did I vote you? ok no. I stated why I had you in there. It is a read. 

 

More snap. Short, clipped, annoyed. "Get off my back dude"

 

first off I was voting ithi, then she came after me. and brought up the case against her as well. I am calling Turin suspicious because of his behavior because I am town. I don't know how you don't see that.

 

Once again tries to explain himself on why he is frustrated and lashing back. The blue in particular feels super genuine to me.

 

 

 

 

These are some of the posts by Seph this evening in response to a lot of people. I have bolded the parts I think are important and ring to me as especially genuine. The impression I get is that the dude is irritated, obviously. His diction, the clippy-ness of some of his statements, etc. strike me as coming from someone who is getting frustrated that he is being suspected when he knows that in the end he isn't guilty.

 

I think what we've seen over the course of the Day is a player in his second game who got flustered at the incessantness of his accusations despite putting in a lot of effort to explain himself, all the way to the point where he reached a stage that made it very hard to think the people accusing him were coming from a good place because he knows he is innocent. It's natural and shows pretty clearly if you actually READ and process his posts. I understand that some of the stuff he said throughout the Day seem like contradictions, and I can see why some of you would be suspect; but a lot of people suffer from foot-in-the-mouth syndrome and none of the 'evidence' that has been presented to mark him as scum is convincing to me.

 

Especially when you have posts like this all over the thread where the dude is pouring it out.

[Andrej]

 

-snip-

 

I am sure you are scum and I am putting john snow in there, with probably someone who has been more inactive, to answer you question on who I think is mafia.

 

Turin you mafia to huh?

 

OMGUS much?

 

It's natural imo. Is this another one of those things you're gonna tell me makes the difference?

[Andrej]

 

 

EBWODP 

[v]NotBob[/v]

 

Blind lynching is a very bad idea. 

 

I agree, and I don't plan to.hoping to get more people in here.

 

 

 

I find this alarming. You agree that blind lynching is a bad idea, but you're doing it anyway.

 

That's the second time you've done something suspicious that caught my attention.

 

[v]Speh[/v]

 

Now you, I actually think could be scum. Considering the level of confidence I have in my read on Seph at this point, your vote coming here after he'd been getting whipped all day by others looks really bad to me.

 

I'm also feeling better about Not Bob from his posting today, he's another one trending up for me, so I no longer feel the need to be voting him.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]Eldrick[/v]

[Andrej]

 

 

 

 

No, not with them.

You have me as a suspect. I want to know why

You're gonna have to wait till I can go collect the stuff that made me think it. I'm on my phone and can't do that atm.

But everyone else seemed to be just posting lists and I thought I'd share mine so far.

Why do you think I should have you as Town?

No worries about the quotes. Summations work just fine for me, I'm on my phone too so I know the pain.

 

I wouldn't use the word should in this case. You are free to develop your read on me however you choose so long as you're willing to explain it. I think I have enough content at this point for anyone to make a call one way or another, even if a weak one.

 

I don't like in actives but I think it should be the mods job to deal with them. Saying you want to lynch in actives is basically allowing an easy lynch without having to give reasons. Also they have no interaction in the game so even when you get the flip it can't help you.

Think of it more as me trying to smoke out the quiet players. The thread was getting stagnant so I wanted to procude some content with the idea. I'm also not particularly fond of lynching any of the more active players at this point. I think we both know it would be hugely irresponsible just to blindly lynch someone, so that isn't going to happen. The dog piling is meant to get people talking.

 

what is your opinion of Not Bob, anyway? I figured that someone like you would probably see where I was coming from when I voted him. He did a 'reply to a joke but say nothing else' type post on the page I voted him, and previously hadn't said much except to vote Eldrick for what I assume is a joke (I asked and wasn't given much of an answer) and reply to some other fluff early on.

 

 

 

lulz...the guy with an agenda...doesn't voice his concerns when he votes  me but since then he has pushed and prodded for opinions on my play...good luck with this tactic

 

I didn't at the time I voted you, no, but as I've stated already I was wanting to see who would react to it. I got nothing, so I pressed for people to give opinions because at the time I legitimately thought there was a chance you could be scum and lurking. I enlarged and colored some stuff inside the spoilers where I mention it to Ithi.

 

I clarified my purpose later on and why I had picked to vote you of the other inactives.

 

This is the post:

 

 

 

 

Let's start lynching them if they're not gonna talk.

In what order fo you propose?

 

 

Any order, really. Perhaps once they see some votes piling up and the noose slipping around their neck they will actually talk and contribute.

 

I voted Not Bob last night hoping it might cause a ripple for people to talk/react to but nobody bit. I picked him because I think he's salty enough to get more involved than he is and it seems since he doesn't have his crutch of voting Darthe all D1 he has resorted to responding only to off topic banter.

 

I bolded the part where I explain my reasoning.

 

Pretty sure Seph is scum...could also vote Eldrick...but for now...Unvote, Vote Thane

 

I think you're wrong on Seph. Eldrick and Thane are maybes for me.

 

 

 

 

I feel like Seph is one I'd like to see live beyond D1, because I find his posts as of right now more like he's trying to find his way in the game and make his play his own. He doesn't feel at all like he has an agenda like he did after he returned as mafia in his first game. 

 

I also find Tress' posts to ring town to me, because she seems genuine in her frustration. 

 

As for Turin I need some more time to read him more accurately. 

 

I think I'd like to take a look at Ithi's posts and see if there is anything there now to start with. 

 

This is not comforting.

 

Ok. Why?

 

Seph looks more inconsistent than the others...thoughts on Thane?

 

Tbh, I straight up believe that this is going through your head and is why you are suspect of Seph and also Thane. You're at least consistent on looking for contradictions and using that as your basis for suspicion. I feel better about you than I had before.

[Kaylee]

Official Vote Count

 

Ithi (2): Tress, Seph

Seph (3): John Snow, Ithi, Eldrick

Zander (1): Nol

Not Bob (1): Thane

AJ (1): Turin

Thane (1): Not Bob

Eldrick (1): AJ

 

Not Voting (2): Zander, Sooh

 

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

 

Deadline is Thursday April 30th @ 4pm.

 

Countdown timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150430T16&p0=3862&fg1=80c2da&fg2=99dbd4&msg=End+of+D1&csz=1

[Andrej]

Alright, sorry about the WOTs. There was a lot of stuff to touch on that I missed while at work but now I'm caught up and will be around through the evening.

 

Anyway, now for this 'trending' list I keep talking about since some of you think I am not taking enough stances. Here's basically where I see everyone.

 

Seph

Tress

Not Bob

Turin

Ithi

 

Sooh

 

Nolder

Zander

Thane

 

John Snow

Eldrick

 

Top group: Top three might be the best town reads I have at the moment. Tress trended up today with her responses to Turin, Seph just needs a friend, and Not Bob is coming across a little gangster in an old timer way that I find myself enjoying. Despite the dog pile today I think some good came of it and the posts he gave this afternoon while short, I think did a good job letting me see where he was coming from. Turin & Ithi round out the bottom simply because I think it's more likely they are town but they are just going to do a fantastic job of grating nerves and dogging innos because they like to take little things and blow them out of proportion and ignore things like context and the humanistic value to this game when evaluating players. Still, sadly, probably townies.

 

Light green: I thought Sooh had some insightful posts earlier. She's noticing some of the wonky things Turin & Ithi say and I'm in agreeance with her opinions on a few other players. This isn't a solid read but I didn't want to keep her in the null pile.

 

Gray: Null group. I had Zander on top because of the VT claim, but man, I need some more from this guy. If there's anyone know is down to town it's his mentor so I am left wondering why I don't see more of that. Nolder is sliding down due to his absence. I got some initial okay feelings from him when we interacted briefly, but silence really just puts me on edge. I hope to hear more from him and soon. There's plenty of stuff to dig into at this point. Thane is at the bottom simply because he hasn't done anything to make me think he could be town or scum yet. Legit could go either way on him at this point.

 

Red group: John and Eldrick. I think they both look pretty bad for their votes. John has been on Seph from the get-go for a reason that I would put on Mynd-level of wackiness. Idk, stuff like that really just doesn't make me feel good about people. He posted a bit today but I don't think much was said in the end. A lot of his topics focus on 'easy' things for scum to talk about (like lynching inactives or the merits of not claiming early) and I think his progression has been poor on Seph despite the amount of posts he had today. Eldrick just seems like a scummy dude to me. I didn't like the timing of his vote today at all, it was convenient and on a soft target who was picking up traction, nor the body of his work as a whole. Would be fine lynching him today.

[John Snow]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-snip-

 

I am sure you are scum and I am putting john snow in there, with probably someone who has been more inactive, to answer you question on who I think is mafia.

 

 

Turin you mafia to huh?

OMGUS much?

It's natural imo. Is this another one of those things you're gonna tell me makes the difference?

Natural or not OMGUS is anti town. And with regards to your other post the fact that has a mentor who's job it is to keep him from making newbie mistakes like that should be kept in mind.

[John Snow]

Oh hey I'm being called mynd again. Awesome.

[Andrej]

 

-snip-

It's natural imo. Is this another one of those things you're gonna tell me makes the difference?

Natural or not OMGUS is anti town. And with regards to your other post the fact that has a mentor who's job it is to keep him from making newbie mistakes like that should be kept in mind.

 

Anti town, how? 

 

And does doing something you might consider anti town make them mafia?

 

Is it really scummy, though?

 

 

Really?

[John Snow]

And when did I say his omgus was scummy? I just pointed out it was omgus

[Andrej]

Okay, I'm asking you then.

 

You said it's anti town. Do you also think it's scummy?

[John Snow]

No, that's his inexperience

[Andrej]

 

I think I've given a healthy amount of stances both voluntarily and when asked for them. Also, it's perfectly acceptable that I ask questions that sometimes I don't respond to. As you can see, we're nearing 4 days into the game and we're just breaking into the 20s as far as page count goes - so by asking questions I get people to talk. If I don't feel the need to answer, then I don't, but each question I ask has a purpose those answers go into my weird little alignment calculator in my head for further examination.

Can you quote some solid stances please? The more the merrier.

 

Happy to. I went through and bolded all of the stances and opinions I have expressed so far this game. There's plenty. I didn't add the newest posts I made since I've been home from work, but there's plenty in there as well.

 

 

 

@Turin - I'm told I'm quite the looker, so enjoy the view

 

I'll read the longer quotes with my detail later when I'm back home and on my laptop but the one thing that stands out to me currently is something Seph said.

 

How are you able to make a statement regarding Turin being town when you also state that you've only ever seen him as a wolf?

 

As far as the Ithi thing goes I'm a bit indifferent about it. I don't think it's a negative discussion necessarily and it has generated some activity but it's not something I would consider hugely troubling.

 

@NotBob - Why Eldrick?

 

Could you give me some examples of what you think his normal villager/wolf actions would be?

 

If you've read up and heard numerous opinions on his meta then you should probably be aware that the relationship with Ithi is null and a dead horse that gets beaten every time they play together.

 

Early hunches are fine, but idk about that man. You're using examples that don't really connect with your conclusion and you seem to be forming a read, imo, out of nowhere when frankly you shouldn't really have any idea of how Turin looks in either alignment yet. Gives me the vibe that you know more than you should. You follow me?

 

I should also note that after this discussion was ended by me with Seph that Ithi was the next one to pick it up and use it to push him.

 

-snip-

 

Between the two the only thing I would really consider of note was Ithi voting him, but for the most part I think things have been par for the course. You were mafia in your last game, yes? I think I might go read it just to get an idea of how you play. Newer players usually give me trouble but I appreciate you trying to expound on your thoughts.

 

If you think you've seen enough to make an early call like that, then okay, but understand why I take some issue with it. I still don't think you should be able to confidently say 'this feels like town Turin' at this point though, unless you think so far he is playing remarkably different than your previous game with him where you guys were mafia together?

 

I'm still undecided on Seph. Not sure if he legit blundered giving Turin an easy town read or if he just said something not so smart because he's new. I suppose it could be a combo of both but the latter is something that could happen as either alignment.

 

I'll ramp up with time but for now I'm content to ease into it. There's newer players that I don't have experience with and I'm not exactly in ship-shape just yet

Idk about Tress but I'm town. I'm null on her for now. I'm curious about her start this game but I'm not sure if she takes the initiative to pressure Ithi as mafia. If you remember our last game together where she was a baddie she avoided her and killed her quietly in the Night. So unless she's meta gaming on purpose, I wouldn't mark her as mafia yet.

 

Things I'm looking for is Nolder's contributions. Hopefully we'll get a chance to work together as townies this round. I don't think we've had the opportunity yet.

 

I'm also wondering about Snow. Not sure how much I invest in his theory regarding the timing of Seph's vote. Seems like a thin reason to me

 

[v]Not Bob[/v]

 

Probably the biggest stance I took up to that point.

 

Let's start lynching them if they're not gonna talk.

 

Controversial suggestion. Sticking my neck out and seeing how it plays out.

 

 

EBWODP

Ok I found it aj, so has anything changed for you?

Not really. I agree with you for the most part that we need more content and nobody who has been talking a lot is really suspicious to me at the moment.

 

As far as my reads go for now I am leaning town on a few players. I think Nolder responded to me yesterday with a reasonable amount of paranoia that strikes me as villagery to being mentioned like that. Still wish he was around more though to help push the game.

 

Ithi is probably town. I think you're more likely than not as well based on how you responded to me about the Turin thing.

 

Snow I'm unsure of. I mentioned him earlier and he hasn't posted since so I don't have much to work with. His reason for voting you I think isn't great but idk if it's because he's scummy or just thinks he legit had something there. DM can be funny with some of their "tells"

 

For now I'm comfortable leaving Turin and Tress as null until I can flesh them out a bit more.

 

I agree that Tress is striking me as town right now. Turin not so much.

 

@Ithi - What's the beef?

 

I can agree with you on the Seph vote, Turin.

 

This was regarding Snow's vote on Seph, for the record.

 

 

 

9 minutes, nbd. 9 and and one vote. That last bit changes everything.

 

Agree to disagree then. I still can't decide whether I think you're just pushing BS or actually believe it means something.

 

On the merit alone that Seph is the top poster and not named TommyRod I think it's far more likely that he's a villager catching heat for the wrong reasons.

 

 

 

Any questions?

 

As you can see I have been free offering my own opinions voluntarily and when asked for them. I also try to provide a bit of an explanation for most of the reads I give so that people can understand how I formed them.

[Andrej]

No, that's his inexperience

 

Okay. I will agree that a lot of what happened today can be chalked up to a newbie losing his cool.

 

Are you scum?

[Andrej]

If I had a second vote I would put it onto Snow.

 

Now that I think about it, I have no idea what his reads are or if he has any other suspects besides Seph.

 

Mind giving a run-down of where you are currently with everyone on the roster, @Snow ?

[Thane Vakarian]

good, some activity during the night, but not too much. I'll read up when i'm at work and will see if my opinions have changed, or not.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Things have got interesting over night. I'm going to

 

[unvote] [v]andrej [/v]

 

He's very very certain seph is town and from my point of view there's only two reasons why. He's either mafia running defence or he's mafia who knows seph is town. Both of those scenarios have aj as mafia so that's the logical choice.

 

Seph does seem rather falling apart I think.

 

Sooh made a lovely big case on me and then failed to vote. That's known as a nudge and it's a bad thing. She's on my list now.

[Eldrick4221]

@AJ

 

I don't get how frustration is inherently town. If mafia got caught, they would be frustrated too.

 

I also don't see how my timing is scummy. I posted while I was catching up. It's what I do. By the time I caught up, I was still comfortable with my vote, and said as much.