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THE METAL - End: Dinner for Wolves


Darthe

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Posted

Pral: Kaylee has been all over the place - her main reads have been Cloud, Tina, Des, Yates and now AJ. Though a lot of those posts seem townish, a few stand out. Especially I don't like the way she basically sheeped AJ and unvoted Tina and finally hammered her.

 

I never said I had a read on Cloud...read my recent posts again. Also I didn't sheep AJ, I have my reasons twice why I unvoted Tina. Once when it happened, again recently to AJ. Stop skimming or misrepresenting me.

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Posted

 

Good then. Thanks Darthe.

 

Whose down to roll the dice? We've got a 50/50 chance of hitting Town or scum at this point. Our PR is already dead so it's only vanillas from here on out.

Really? Yeah, that's townie behavior....

 

Vote Tina

 

 

I actually agree with AJ in this case. Especially after Darthe confirmed that there will be coroner's report.

Random has a 50% chance to hit scum. That is a better option than voting someone who I think is town.

Posted

Pral: Kaylee has been all over the place - her main reads have been Cloud, Tina, Des, Yates and now AJ. Though a lot of those posts seem townish, a few stand out. Especially I don't like the way she basically sheeped AJ and unvoted Tina and finally hammered her.

 

I never said I had a read on Cloud...read my recent posts again. Also I didn't sheep AJ, I have my reasons twice why I unvoted Tina. Once when it happened, again recently to AJ. Stop skimming or misrepresenting me.

 

Yeah, you didn't have a read on Cloud - I actually say that in the next sentence in my case. You still voted him. Long before the deadline. That is not town behavior. 

 

I quoted the post where you unvoted Tia. Your reasons basically parrots what AJ said. The unvote to get off the train and then hammer is highly suspicious.

Posted

 

 

Good then. Thanks Darthe.

 

Whose down to roll the dice? We've got a 50/50 chance of hitting Town or scum at this point. Our PR is already dead so it's only vanillas from here on out.

Really? Yeah, that's townie behavior....

 

Vote Tina

 

 

I actually agree with AJ in this case. Especially after Darthe confirmed that there will be coroner's report.

Random has a 50% chance to hit scum. That is a better option than voting someone who I think is town.

 

I didn't vote someone I thought was town. I said I was unsure so I placed my vote. At least it got us info. I find it interesting that both you and AJ are pushing this, yet ignore the fact that it also could be bad because it would likely give us less info. And if you find me so damn scummy then vote me.

 

 

 

Pral: Kaylee has been all over the place - her main reads have been Cloud, Tina, Des, Yates and now AJ. Though a lot of those posts seem townish, a few stand out. Especially I don't like the way she basically sheeped AJ and unvoted Tina and finally hammered her.

 

I never said I had a read on Cloud...read my recent posts again. Also I didn't sheep AJ, I have my reasons twice why I unvoted Tina. Once when it happened, again recently to AJ. Stop skimming or misrepresenting me.

 

Yeah, you didn't have a read on Cloud - I actually say that in the next sentence in my case. You still voted him. Long before the deadline. That is not town behavior. 

 

I quoted the post where you unvoted Tia. Your reasons basically parrots what AJ said. The unvote to get off the train and then hammer is highly suspicious.

 

It is when I agreed with the case against him. I said that already too, nice job ignoring that though. Teal: I unvoted because I said I wasn't sure about her. I wasn't convinced she was town at the time deadline drew near so I revoted/hammered. Anything else you'd like to take out context or misrepresent or try to twist? (Careful on the twisting, I'm a bit sensitive).

Posted

I didn't vote someone I thought was town. I said I was unsure so I placed my vote. At least it got us info. I find it interesting that both you and AJ are pushing this, yet ignore the fact that it also could be bad because it would likely give us less info. And if you find me so damn scummy then vote me.

Not talking about why you voted. You questioned AJ because he did not vote and I was questioning your decision.

Also, I fail to see why it would give us less info.

 

It is when I agreed with the case against him. I said that already too, nice job ignoring that though. Teal: I unvoted because I said I wasn't sure about her. I wasn't convinced she was town at the time deadline drew near so I revoted/hammered. Anything else you'd like to take out context or misrepresent or try to twist? (Careful on the twisting, I'm a bit sensitive).

I am just giving my reads on your actions - if that is what you call as twisting, then there would be nothing else to do in Mafia. One thing to rremember is that nothing is straight forward.

Posted

PRALAYA THE NONMETAL, SCOURGE OF POPULARITY AND HARBINGER OF PIMPLES DARED TO SPEAK TO DARTHE LARS AND WAS PUNCHED IN THE ******* FACE.

 

HE DIED.

 

 

Continue.

Posted

 

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT: 

AJ (4/7): Laya, Tina, BFG, Hally

Cloud (7/7): Des, Verb, Yates, Kay, Len, Mish, AJ

Tina (1/7): Cloud

 

Not Metal (0/12): 

As it should be.

 

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

Looking at this, Des was the first on both townies lynch as were Len and Kaylee.  It seems like Des really lead the lynch on Tina, he was firmly convinced that she was scum.  I think that's worth looking into.

 

Vote Des

Posted

 

 

I don't like this push on AJ. It would be suicidal to make that play as wolf or mafia. The easiest explanation is he's town. Personally, I'm more interested in Pralaya and Lenlo. My interactions with them yesterday were largely one-sided, especially Lenlo.

 

Vote: Lenlo

 

 

I've spent some time trying to figure out the advantages of this as a Town, mafia or werewolf, and although out of the three I think Town is more likely, I'm not willing to rule out the alternatives.

 

Town

 

The Pro-Town argument has been made, for a VT to draw the NK would be better then losing the seer, however to me it would be more Town to make this gambit on Night 2 or 3.  On Night 1 there was a 1/9 chance they'd hit the seer, unless there were tells that I missed prior to AJs gambit (if there were please tell me).  But in Night 2 it would be a 1/7 or 1/8 (if we'd managed to get a werewolf), by Night 3 a 1/5 or 1/6 (I think).  Conversely the seers chances of finding a werewolf increase each night as people are cleared through viewings/lynching/nightkills. 

 

Of course just because I think it's more protown to try this gambit later on doesn't mean it's anti-town to try it Night 1. 

 

Werewolf

 

This is risky, in some ways, although they also have an obvious gain.  Even if Mish's (and our) reactions hadn't left her so exposed on Night 1 - AJs actions would have resulted in a lot of talk that could be analysed, giving them a reasonable chance of identifying the Seer during the course of Night 1, Day 2, Night 2.  Darthe, pregame, stated that he almost lost a game for Town by revealing after he found 1 werewolf.  So, assuming AJ was a wolf and Mish viewed N1, then she is still likely to find the second wolf before she reveals.  So that means she wouldn't reveal until Day 3, which gives them 2 nights and a lynch to attempt to find the seer.  If it works however, they get the seer and, because it's easier to argue a pro-town gambit, they have a 'confirmed' townie until the end of the game and an excellent chance of winning. 

 

The other problem is that if the seer isn't found during or prior to Night 2 then he has to explain why he's still alive.  Which is why the reveal had to be so scummy.  Given that most people posting were skeptical of the claim, means that it's possible to argue that the werewolves would leave him alive as it distracts Town from hunting scum.

 

This also only works with a Night 1 reveal, as there's a chance if they waited that the second werewolf would have been found Night 1, and Night 2 gives the seer the second werewolf, before the werewolves have a chance to respond.

 

This is obviously a really risky strategy as it relies on the reactions of the seer, but it could win them the game.

 

Mafia

 

The argument here is similar to that for the werewolves with a slight change in emphasis.  This time the seer views them N1 and sees non-werewolf and keeps quiet.  The same reactions are garnered, the same chance of outing the seer, and although this is primarily an advantage for the werewolves, mafia wouldn't want a confirmed townie through to the end either (unless of course it's one of them). 

 

The key risk here is that the werewolves don't know that he isn't the seer, so have no reason not to target him N1, unless they've also thought through the seer waiting for 2 confirmations before revealing.  Again, talk would likely focus on the reveal instead of hunting scum directly, giving werewolves an advantage (and possible reason not to NK straight away).  This time the other 2 members of the team use the Night and Day to prod people that had interesting reactions to try and reveal the seer, leaving the real seer open to a NK and their mafia as a confirmed townie (on the assumption that with the Seer dead, the werewolves are going to concentrate on finding Mafia over VT)  It's also risky, but if the werewolves can be exposed, again potentially gets them a 'confirmed' townie through to the end game.

 

This could work on any night.

 

 

 

To be clear, I would give the Town gambit the better odds, but I don't want to rule the others out and give scum a clear shot through to the end.

 

 

 

 

 

Incidentally - you initially had Yates/Des as the werewolf team because they were arguing with each other (possible distancing) while both having their votes placed elsewhere. What changed to make you think they're on different teams now?

I cut this down...she makes a good point here.

 

 

Did you guys miss the part where Yates died and flipped mafia??

 

Kaylee you're really going out on a limb here.

 

 

No, but I wasn't asking why you weren't viewing them as werewolves, but why you no longer thought them to be on the same team?  Now Yates has flipped mafia, why don't you think Des is mafia as well?  I thought your initial point about the distancing was good, and wondered what had changed to negate this point. 

 

 

 

For now,

 

vote Lenlo

 

His voting patterns have been strange for the past couple of Days.

 

Day 1 (my analysis of the votes at the time)

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/page-22?do=findComment&comment=3064743

 

Day 2

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/?p=3064057

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/?p=3064424

 

assuming the iso ordered them correctly he votes AJ in one post and in the next immediately switches to Tina with very little pressure or reason given.

 

 

 

Ah, okay. I see what you're saying now. I misunderstood the first time I read it. When I came up with the Des/Yates theory I was basing it more so on them being a team of two, not three. I don't see them having the need to distance so much if they had another team member. I wouldn't say that I have completely negated that Des could still be mafia but I think not.

 

AJ: I pointed out what I thought and why. I don't expect you to agree. I don't find your play to be townie so JLM leaving my vote.

 

What is JLM?

 

 

 

 

Good then. Thanks Darthe.

 

Whose down to roll the dice? We've got a 50/50 chance of hitting Town or scum at this point. Our PR is already dead so it's only vanillas from here on out.

Really? Yeah, that's townie behavior....

 

Vote Tina

 

 

I actually agree with AJ in this case. Especially after Darthe confirmed that there will be coroner's report.

Random has a 50% chance to hit scum. That is a better option than voting someone who I think is town.

 

 

I didn't vote someone I thought was town. I said I was unsure so I placed my vote. At least it got us info. I find it interesting that both you and AJ are pushing this, yet ignore the fact that it also could be bad because it would likely give us less info. And if you find me so damn scummy then vote me.

 

 

 

 

Pral: Kaylee has been all over the place - her main reads have been Cloud, Tina, Des, Yates and now AJ. Though a lot of those posts seem townish, a few stand out. Especially I don't like the way she basically sheeped AJ and unvoted Tina and finally hammered her.

 

I never said I had a read on Cloud...read my recent posts again. Also I didn't sheep AJ, I have my reasons twice why I unvoted Tina. Once when it happened, again recently to AJ. Stop skimming or misrepresenting me.

 

Yeah, you didn't have a read on Cloud - I actually say that in the next sentence in my case. You still voted him. Long before the deadline. That is not town behavior. 

 

I quoted the post where you unvoted Tia. Your reasons basically parrots what AJ said. The unvote to get off the train and then hammer is highly suspicious.

 

It is when I agreed with the case against him. I said that already too, nice job ignoring that though. Teal: I unvoted because I said I wasn't sure about her. I wasn't convinced she was town at the time deadline drew near so I revoted/hammered. Anything else you'd like to take out context or misrepresent or try to twist? (Careful on the twisting, I'm a bit sensitive).

 

 

 

The only thing bad that happened was that we didn't lynch scum. You keep pushing the information angle but realistically dead scum is dead scum. With the ratio where it is, I'd prefer a lynched scum during a random over information. Like I said earlier, it's more or less going to become a PoE pretty soon. I'm tempted to call your bluff at the last sentence, that came off as awfully defensive.

 

 

I didn't vote someone I thought was town. I said I was unsure so I placed my vote. At least it got us info. I find it interesting that both you and AJ are pushing this, yet ignore the fact that it also could be bad because it would likely give us less info. And if you find me so damn scummy then vote me.

Not talking about why you voted. You questioned AJ because he did not vote and I was questioning your decision.

Also, I fail to see why it would give us less info.

 

 

It is when I agreed with the case against him. I said that already too, nice job ignoring that though. Teal: I unvoted because I said I wasn't sure about her. I wasn't convinced she was town at the time deadline drew near so I revoted/hammered. Anything else you'd like to take out context or misrepresent or try to twist? (Careful on the twisting, I'm a bit sensitive).

I am just giving my reads on your actions - if that is what you call as twisting, then there would be nothing else to do in Mafia. One thing to rremember is that nothing is straight forward.

 

 

Bolded: Nuff said. Welcome to my Town list Pral.

 

Updates:

 

 

Town:

Andrej

Verb

BFG

Pral

 

Scum:

Des

Hallia

Lenlo

Kaylee

 

We lynch from that pool and we win.

 

Posted

Then do it. It isn't a bluff. It was partially defensive partially me being pissed that I was being partially quoted, the whole not looked at. Both you and Pral did it. Anyway do what you feel you need to. If you're so for a random, why place a vote at all?

Posted

I don't know why you are finding it difficult to understand.

 

Let's simplify it.

 

Voting scum > random > voting town for deadline pressure (in this game and at this point of time)

Posted

I'm not voting town...I explained how I thought he wasn't town. The way you guys answer for each other is certainly interesting though. Unless that was directed at AJ.

Posted

 

 

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT: 

AJ (4/7): Laya, Tina, BFG, Hally

Cloud (7/7): Des, Verb, Yates, Kay, Len, Mish, AJ

Tina (1/7): Cloud

 

Not Metal (0/12): 

As it should be.

 

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

Looking at this, Des was the first on both townies lynch as were Len and Kaylee.  It seems like Des really lead the lynch on Tina, he was firmly convinced that she was scum.  I think that's worth looking into.

 

Vote Des

 

 

I've been looking at the trains today.  Des was actually third on the Cloud train, Yates was first, then briefly left to vote AJ.  AJ was second but left at the end to vote Tina before hammering.  He was also third on Tinas train after AJ and Kaylee, although he was definitely pushing for that one.

 

 

I don't know why you are finding it difficult to understand.

 

Let's simplify it.

 

Voting scum > random > voting town for deadline pressure (in this game and at this point of time)

 

that makes more sense, when I read the earlier posts I thought you both meant that you'd rather get random than consensus on scum.  Agreed, it also gives us more information, not necessarily on the person who gets killed, but because it stops people from being able to hide votes.  But I do think it's too early to bring this up, during the day we should be scum-hunting, not debating the merits of a random vote.

 

In rereading (and not skipping the nested quotes this time, I came across this)

 

#244  

 

I've linked it because it's a really long post, but have deleted the non-relevant bits,

 

 

 

 

But Cloud acting all upset that AJ isn't more suspicious of Pray and not just him reeks like hell. He's tried diverting focus to Pray multiple times. Then the whole Unvote rolled together with the "y'all will lynch me now anyways :sad:" AtE was just as obvious of scum backpedaling as you can get. Not to mention that Cloud seemed to try ducking AJ's question about whether Cloud thought him mafia or werewolf. A veritable orgy of evidence, as it were.

What use would a trap have if you don't follow up onto it with more pressure? I admit that my case was a bit loose but you can't really expect a bulletproof case right at the start of the game. I questioned AJ on every point that stood out to me, and the way he defended himself makes me believe that he is town. I'm aware that the initial FoS was weak; I already explained that I didn't find his post scummy but I voted for him anyway to see how he would react, and to get the game started. His reaction that followed was what I found pinging. I wasn't trying to divert the attention to Pral, because if I wanted to do that then I would have stopped going after AJ. Him being OK with Pral's vote, but not with mine was one of the main points of my case against him. He also didn't vote for me while thinking I was a wolf, but he has already disproven this point. I wasn't backpadeling; My reads on him only changed after our argument. Should I have kept pushing for his lynch instead while thinking I would kill a townie? I have also already explained that I thought he was a wolf.

 

 

[deleted - sorry, deleted too much, it was in response to Mishes question to Tina about teams]

 

I don't get why a couple of people are pushing this concept, that we need to differentiate between our scum reads. What's the point? It's just complicating the issue unnecessarrily. Maybe after a couple of flips, or closer to endgame it could be worth differentiating (since wolves have the NK, they seem like a greater threat to me, even tho we have a Seer). But for now, it seems pointless. And touting that you're doing it and others aren't seems weak to me.

 

Des - why were you using Clouds reluctance to differentiate between mafia and werewolf on Day 1, when later on you're saying that on Day 1 it's a pointless exercise?

 

unvote, vote Des

Posted

Okay caught up. Kinda get the feeling I'm going to be today's lynch, too many people have been nudging my lynch for some time now. Sorry if yall don't like this attitude, but lynch away. I prob signed up for 1 game too many (in 3 others atm) so this will give me more time to get my reads solidified in other games. Think I'm at L-1 anyways. I'll get my reads out in a sec, just wanna add quick stuff I saw while I was catching up:

 

Nice to be vindicated on Yates. Knew he was scum. Sucks that a few peeps kept trying to link me to him, all that nudging by others is prob why there might be some townies on my train. I also want to point out that this is prob why the wolves chose to kill him, they prob knew that if he flipped scum I'd be set up for a pretty easy frame job. Sad that no one else is even considering this possibility. :rolleyes:

 

Fwiw, I got a strong town read on BFG. She seems to be doing a really good job in trying to scumhunt, digging for info and whatnot. Had a fairly strong town read on AJ, that has gone down a lot because of his tunneling on me, and because he's trying to now prance around his "towniness", as in the fake claim (which COULD have been done for town cred, since on MS that kind of thing would have been seen as a protown gambit by a townie) and advocating the random yesterday.

 

Also kinda seems like AJ and Pray are working in tandem to pressure Kaylee, that caught my interest somewhat. Incidentally, for my two cents on the random lynch idea: it's true that the odds would be in town's favor for a random. The main downside however that yall are either not considering or trying to gloss over is the fact that there IS obviously more information that can be obtained with a standard lynch instead of a random; i.e. voting records. Kinda hard to analyze voting trains on a random. Either way, it's silly to try and act like promoting a random yesterday helps prove ANYONE'S towniness.

 

Hallia's vote on me looks uberscummy. Lazy vote analysis for one, BFG already pointed out that others had voted Cloud first, but then unvoted later on (most likely to distance from a townie lynch, after all Yates was the first one, and AJ the second, who I'm now having second, or I guess third thoughts on hehe). I wasn't extremely confident in my vote on Cloud, but I hadn't really seen enough for me to move my vote that day either. Town had a crappy day 1, low activity and no competing trains.

 

 

It seems like Des really lead the lynch on Tina, he was firmly convinced that she was scum.  I think that's worth looking into.

 

 

^ This part of her reasoning tho was just awful. If I was firmly convinced Tina was scum, doesn't that mean it would be more likely that I'm town trying to scumhunt? And "I think that's worth looking into" is a statement often used by scum to try and lay the foundation for them to back off of their vote later on. Worth looking into Hallia? That vote put me at L-2. If you think I'm scum, say so, don't act like your vote is exploratory.

 

That's all I got off the top of my head, gonna post reads in a sec.

Posted

Lineup:
2. Andrej - Now leaning scum. I thought it more likely that the fake claim was a town gambit at first, but the way AJ has tried acting like this makes him confirmed town pings greatly. Also has tunneled on me for some time now, and was one of those who tried strongest in linking me with Yates. Wouldn't be surprised if AJ was actually Yates' scumbuddy, after all he DID defend Yates when Kaylee first brought up the ISO thing, and it is possible that he fake claimed Seer more as a way of trying to get viewed to make him look more townie
5. Len - leaning scum. Haven't seen anything from him in a while, and Lenlo often lies low as scum.
7. Laya - meh not much. He was really inactive for a while. Only thing I remember about him is his recent pushing against Kaylee for the random thing, which is silly to me. Slight scum read.
8. BFG* - Strong town read
9. Des - town
10. Kaylee - town read. Pointed out the ISO thing about Yates, when he had pretty much no pressure on him at all so I don't see as a distancing maneuver. Also she tends to lurk more as scum, whereas as town she tends to ramp up really quick after a couple of days and has seen some flips
11. Hally - Strong scum read. Has laid low yet again all game, and her vote on me just reeked of scum trying to slipa vote in on a townie. I mean, putting someone at L-2 because you think "they could be worth looking into"? Come on now.
12. Verb - Don't have much on Verb here either. He's laid low for a while, but that's somewhat of a nulltell for him. Thinking town if only because if he was scum I'd see him opportunistically jumping on my lynch.

 

Vote Hallia

Posted

Oooh I almost forgot, meant to respond to this bit before:

 

 

 

 

But Cloud acting all upset that AJ isn't more suspicious of Pray and not just him reeks like hell. He's tried diverting focus to Pray multiple times. Then the whole Unvote rolled together with the "y'all will lynch me now anyways :sad:" AtE was just as obvious of scum backpedaling as you can get. Not to mention that Cloud seemed to try ducking AJ's question about whether Cloud thought him mafia or werewolf. A veritable orgy of evidence, as it were.

What use would a trap have if you don't follow up onto it with more pressure? I admit that my case was a bit loose but you can't really expect a bulletproof case right at the start of the game. I questioned AJ on every point that stood out to me, and the way he defended himself makes me believe that he is town. I'm aware that the initial FoS was weak; I already explained that I didn't find his post scummy but I voted for him anyway to see how he would react, and to get the game started. His reaction that followed was what I found pinging. I wasn't trying to divert the attention to Pral, because if I wanted to do that then I would have stopped going after AJ. Him being OK with Pral's vote, but not with mine was one of the main points of my case against him. He also didn't vote for me while thinking I was a wolf, but he has already disproven this point. I wasn't backpadeling; My reads on him only changed after our argument. Should I have kept pushing for his lynch instead while thinking I would kill a townie? I have also already explained that I thought he was a wolf.

 

 
[deleted - sorry, deleted too much, it was in response to Mishes question to Tina about teams]

 
I don't get why a couple of people are pushing this concept, that we need to differentiate between our scum reads. What's the point? It's just complicating the issue unnecessarrily. Maybe after a couple of flips, or closer to endgame it could be worth differentiating (since wolves have the NK, they seem like a greater threat to me, even tho we have a Seer). But for now, it seems pointless. And touting that you're doing it and others aren't seems weak to me.

 

Des - why were you using Clouds reluctance to differentiate between mafia and werewolf on Day 1, when later on you're saying that on Day 1 it's a pointless exercise?

 

 

I had more of a problem with Cloud ducking the question than the question itself. Tbh, when I first saw the question, I didn't think it was extremely relevant, but when I thought Cloud wasn't answering it on purpose it seemed strange to me. Turns out I was wrong anyways apparently, Cloud responded and showed where he did answer it.

 

Later on there seemed to be too much focus on differentiating reads, and that seemed like a fruitless debate imo, especially on day 1 when we should have been doing more actual scumhunting and there wasn't much info to actually base wolf/mafia reads on at that point.

 

Anyhoo, hammer away scum. Hopefully town can still pull this one out.

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