THE METAL - End: Dinner for Wolves

[Niniel]

Go town! 

[Verbal32]

This isn´t JN, Verbal.

 

This isn't JN?!  I was wondering when I'd been promoted to JN admin.....whew.  Thanks for clearing that up for me!

 

/sarcasm

 

 

 

 

I have a new thing I want to do so badly... Anyone in the advanced que not know what they're running/ want to co-mod something crazy?

 

I want to make a BYOR game.

Bleurgh. Can't believe she flipped town.

 

@Darthe: I think Ithi ran a game where you could design your own roles or something

 

It was cosmicpanda - he ran a series of those games on DM called CYOR - create your own role.

[Darthe]

That's awesome.  I haven't seen him in a long time.  Sad.

[Andrej]

lol

 

[Darthe]

[Darthe]

Yates, Mafia Goon has been killed.

 

 

It is now Day!  You have 72 hours.

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[Kaylee]

I knew he was scummy. His pushing my reading other games as suspicious just felt like reaching.

[Andrej]

Who do you think we should lynch today Kaylee?

[Kaylee]

right now going through Yates's posts to see what connection I can find. What bout you?

[Andrej]

Same. I'll post my thoughts once I get them all together.

[Andrej]

Sneaky Darthe getting us to listen to metal...  It is 24 hours though right?  or was anyway.

 

AJs vote is interesting.  No case on Des, the only one I've seen is from Tina a couple of pages back, and after that she votes Yates.  AJ has Yates & Des as a werewolf team but votes Des, even though Yates has already had one vote on him (although it's since been removed). 

 

 

Hallia posted to say she was going to try and catch up, any thoughts?

 

 

I'll be around tonight to vote, but may not be around at deadline.

 

What exactly was the point of this commentary?

 

 

Yep! I've finally caught up.  I initially was pretty darned sure AJ was scummy with the early back and forth between him and Cloud and then the night claim of the seer.  However, it's been mentioned several times it could've been to draw the NK to him.  From what I know of AJ and his play, I think this is the most likely scenario. So right now, I think he's town.  Looking back, this is what else stood out to me.

 

Either way, this is kind of an easy choice for me. Unvote, Vote Cloud.

 

If you're going to act like an initial fos on someone was a trap or to kick start the game, don't pull the ol "oh man, maybe I really was onto something!" routine and keep trying to case the dude you fos'd. The original for was weak, scum means any antitown role so there was no slip imo. Except for a bit of possible AtE in some of his recent posts, AJ's responses to this whole thing seem fine to me.

 

But Cloud acting all upset that AJ isn't more suspicious of Pray and not just him reeks like hell. He's tried diverting focus to Pray multiple times. Then the whole Unvote rolled together with the "y'all will lynch me now anyways :sad:" AtE was just as obvious of scum backpedaling as you can get. Not to mention that Cloud seemed to try ducking AJ's question about whether Cloud thought him mafia or werewolf. A veritable orgy of evidence, as it were.

 

I wonder if this isn't some subtle team defense between despo and pral

 

Then these couple of people pinged for me, with the flimsy votes on Cloud

 

Ok, I'll tip the scales.  I'm sticking to my earlier feeling that I'd rather lynch Cloud based on his "reaction testing" excuse.

 

Vote: Cloud

 

Unvote Vote Cloud

 

I had forgotten about the deadline. I just voted for the train I felt the strongest about. 

 

Yup im caught up.

 

Vote Cloud We really dont have time for anyone but him or AJ at this point and Cloud is much scummier to me.

 

Whilst I am suspicious slightly of Despo, he makes really good points for Tina's lynch (the most being because I like freedom, unicorns and fresh marmalade   )

 

I'd say it looks more and more like you are going all-in to try and prevent Tina's lynch.

 

I can understand you saying that AJ's move hurt the town. I'd be likely to agree with you there (and good point with the other probabilities), and that's why there are many who greatly discourage game talk during night phases (personally I'm cool with it, as long as you accept the inherent risk). But anti-town doesn't necessarily mean scum. We have to make sure and lynch definite scum, since we won't be able to slip by with as many mislynches this game (considering the original scum ratio was 5:7 town). So you can't "punish" AJ for doing something that hurt town if it's likely that he's town himself.

 

And as I already laid out, it's very likely that he is town at this point. False claiming during the night as scum would expose yourself way too much, for little gain, and with reduced numbers (only 2 and 3 on each respective team), I don't think you'll see scum doing much to expose themselves this game.

 

Tina on the other hand, has a substantial amount of evidence against her.

 

1. Nudged at Mish while keeping her vote parked on AJ (scum love parking their vote)

2. After being pressed for why she was voting AJ, she acted like she couldn't be bothered to restate the reasons, and instead referred others to her original post where she voted AJ (even while she continuously brought up points against Mish)

3. Pulled a 180 after day ended (said she no longer wanted a Mish lynch, after going at her for a while. Looks like she saw there wouldn't be much support for a Mish lynch and jumped ship)

4. Issued a strange cryptic way-too-obvious statement. Tina: "Looks like scum are fine with lynching anyone that's not scum" Everyone else: "Uhm, yeah... they're scum"

5. Used said bizarre statement to try and direct town focus on four names without giving any reasons why those four should be focused on (and she still hasn't said why btw)

 

A vote for Tina is a vote for town victory. Arguing against voting Tina is like arguing against freedom, unicorns, and fresh marmalade.

 

 

 

I'm pretty suspicious of Kay, Verb, and Lenlo, but the case right there makes a lot of sense.

 

Vote Tina

 

No Yates? FOS.

 

 

 

 

(should have included a /sarcasm) Because it should be obvious.  The preferred outcome of night is always going to be for wolves to kill mafia that way there's one scum down instead of another Town as well as the possibility of being able to start trying to link people.  Neither yours nor Tinas statement to that effect sit's right with me.

 

What happened to Tinas case on Yates?  Would still like to hear from Lenlo (and Hallia)

 

So you agree with my train of thought but just have a problem that I voiced it?

 

@Darthe - Is Hallia being replaced in this game as well? I know she subbed out of her last one.

 

 

Sorry missed this earlier.  Yes I agree with the sentiment and have a problem with the way you said it.

 

 

unvote

 

Alright let's look at those trains more closely.

 

Right now I have good town reads on BFG and Verbal. I'm leaning Town on Kaylee as well. Add me in and you've got one more slot for Town... In my mind that leaves likely Pral, Yates, Tina or possibly Hallia.

 

...

 

So, putting my thoughts on paper: Des/Yates are the werewolf team. But then who does that leave for Lenlo's partners on the mafia team? Seeing as how he said earlier he could go for me or Tina I don't think Tina would apply. Both him and Pral voted me out the gates today but Pral has done a better job justifying his vote IMO other than Lenlo's "He lied. Lynch him" biz. Kaylee has been on both trains the last two days but so have I... so not sure about that.

...

 

Typo?  You have Yates as a possible town, but in each of your combos he's down as the wolf team with Des.

 

Not a typo. At the time I was beginning to see a pattern and was putting my thoughts out there for others to see. Out of the two, I admit I had more of a Town read on Yates. Obviously I was wrong there.

 

Des is still calling to the high heavens about how scummy Yates is, using meta from the Kingdom Hearts game in this instance, but keeps his vote parked on Tina.

 

Des or Lenlo lynch is the way to go. I'd rather kill a suspected wolf but mafia would be just as fine too.

 

The difference between Des and Tina is that Des is still arguing for a Tina lynch.

 

Not sure what it's worth, but at the moment I think Tina and Lenlo are scum and am starting to lean scum on AJ.  Having huge difficulty reading Hallia & Verbal, currently a town read on Kaylee and keep changing my mind about everyone else.  

 

Vote Tina

 

I'm off to bed, but should be up again before the deadline.

 

Explain please.

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

For his teammates... I've got BFG and Hallia as potential. Not a big fan of how they came in and put Tina at L-1 after her lynch had stalled out.

 

Don't like Lenlo's lack of contribution, didn't really see anything between him and Yates other than them occasionally commenting on current game events. They were also usually on the opposing sides.

 

Scrap the Des/Yates wolf combo (obviously). I doubt that Des is mafia at this point but I'm not thinking he's Town either. Hallia pointed something out earlier about his comments on Pral when it came to the Cloud case which I found a little interesting.

 

For now I'll vote Des since I still think the wolves are a bigger threat and I have him pegged for one.

[Andrej]

Okay so we're at 4v2v2 now. Still 50/50 if we go random, just saying.

 

My reads are all fubar'd after Yates's flip. Still leaning Town on Verb and Kaylee, although lesser for her. 

 

 

 

Sorry little loves, a pretty metal goddess fell sick from ROCKING too hard and called me away to a day of her affections.  I don't intend for this to happen again.

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT: 
AJ (4/7): Laya, Tina, BFG, Hally
Cloud (7/7): Des, Verb, Yates, Kay, Len, Mish, AJ
Tina (1/7): Cloud

Not Metal (0/12): 

As it should be.

 

But is he town or is he scum?  Is he scum or is he town?  Is he wolfie or kosher?

 

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

Not sure what to think of Pral at this point. He's had his vote parked on me the last two days and only really comes in to hammer on me some more. I'd like for him to start playing and analyzing.

 

So... mashing combos in my head again.

 

 

 

Town:

Andrej

Verb

Kaylee (?)

Pral (?)

 

Wolf:

Des

Lenlo (?)

 

Mafia:

BFG

Hallia

 

Meh on that one.

 

Town:

Andrej

Verb

Kaylee

Lenlo (?)

Wolf:

Des

Pral

 

Mafia:

BFG

Hallia

 

Maybe. If Lenlo is Town he needs to get in here and show it.

 

Town:

Andrej

Verb

Kaylee

Hallia/BFG

 

Wolf:

Des

Pral

 

Mafia:

Lenlo

Hallia/BFG

 

Plausible.

 

[Kaylee]

Yates starts off spamming. His first game related post #156 he quotes AJ, Cloud and Pral asking what point there is to distinguish between scum teams. He FOS Cloud and Pral and votes Cloud calling him opportunistic. He FOS Tina for commenting on the situation saying it's the only thing we have thus far. (Two of these turned out to bed townies). He then agrees with Tina about AJ pinging because of being ok with his vote here. His next post, the very next one in fact, he decides AJ's AtE is pinging. (No vote switch). Yates then quotes AJ calling this post gross and makes this comment: "Yeah.  Why would we need to differentiate?  That's like saying we need to figure out who is mafia and who is an SK.  Screw that noise.  We need to lynch ANYONE that can hurt the Town.  Period.  Cloud might be anti-town, but he isn't on AJ's team.  And AJ isn't on Town's team.  I can vote either.  Right now, AJ has convinced me that he's the bigger threat." Then he votes AJ without unvoting....his next post he unvotes and votes AJ. (Not sure if that was intentional or not.) He then quotes Verbal, agrees with him, and says he initially voted Cloud for that reason and could vote either Cloud or AJ in either order. That post is here. His next post: "I think my own posts 202, 203, and 204 are what ultimately tipped the scales.

 

I didn't think AJ was all that suspicious but found three fairly major pings in 2 pages as I was getting caught up." What?! You tipped the scales for AJ? Dunno, just something seems off about it. He then says order doesn't matter and switches back to Cloud. Seems to me like he's trying to protect a teammate. Oh wait guys, his still has a major FOS on AJ. He thinks they're both anti-town but not the same team...says he doesn't care which is on which team. 

 

In this post, which is his next one, he tells me he was going to post something similar to what I did: Despo's interaction with Tina...then says :Observe: He then, in the same post, quotes Despo and says setting up lynches is what you do when you have two scum reads. He says that's no different than what Tina had done earlier. (Great case, really...so much thought put into it and everything...oh wait /sarcasm). 

 

Yates then quotes Mish and says, agreeing with her, that it looks like Tina and Des are on the same team and now he's less confident in Cloud. This is the post where he mentions the ISO feature mind you. He then has a bit of back and forth with me about the ISO comment. He tries to say my time of posting it makes it seem bad. (There's bad timing to point out scum...hmm nope!) Next he goes after Despo for semantics...saying that his wording wasn't much different than Tina's. He also says if I played at MS I'd know about the ISO thing. (He really harped on it...made me all the more suspicious). Despo jumps on the ISO thing and asks why Yates never did an ISO on him. He also FOS Despo for not knowing how to do the ISO on DM and not using it...very interesting. (At this point I'm thinking Despo is more likely town and Yates is attacking him to make him seem suspicious for doing something I accused him of doing. He says the following: "Scum are cool with misrepping points through ISO. Scum hunters find scum by finding these misreps and disproving them with context. Framing contextual arguments through searches takes significantly longer than clicking on ready links. That's all I was saying. TL/DR - I didn't have the time to follow up on that particular thought at that particular moment - that thought being that I wanted to know if Des was ignoring Tina, trying to make it LOOK LIKE he was ignoring Tina, or if he was simply using targeted misreps." Purple: Like I did with your ISO comment? Green: I know...it's been 2 hours so far just for me to get this far! Yates then says Depso tied himself to Tina. Hmm knowing that Tina is town does that mean Despo is town or that you're trying to make Despo "seem" town? Hard to say as Tina was still alive atm. He quotes AJ saying my ISO comment was bullshanks. Yates says he thinks I was legit in trying to catch someone in a lie. (and I did!) He does agree with AJ that Despo jumping on that ISO thing is like the "blood in the water" scum tactic. He thinks Des is suspicious but not sure if he's scum or not. AJ points out that I found out about the ISO from another game and suddenly Yates is like "Oh snap! That *WASN'T* in this game!! How did you know about that, Kaylee? I was going to point it out anyway [because credit where credit is due and I wanted the internet cookies] but how did you know?" (I already explained I had read that in another game and so used the knowledge I had to make my case).

 

Then Day breaks and Yates want to know why AJ would claim Seer at night. He says an AJ lynch would make Despo easier for him to read. That and he doesn't like AJ's defense of him against me. (Hmm perhaps because he's distancing from AJ?)

 

Then he quotes Len and says that you don't CC as a Seer. It's the post where he talks about the claimed Seer (AJ) being protected...

 

BFG points out that there is no Doc and therefore no protection. 

 

He then goes back and forth with me a bit about finding his ISO post from the Halloween game. Then some spam...

 

He apologizes to Len for "misunderstanding" about the CC comment. 

 

More back and forth with me. 

 

Says as a VT drawing the NK is the towniest thing to do by fake claiming. (Protecting AJ much?) He says especially if the VT was a long train previous phase and puts AJ in his town pile.

 

He then gets into it again with Despo about MS and what scum would and wouldn't do. He includes misrepping as well as what scum do. (Second time he's said that. That's funny as Despo accused him of doing that.) He also seems mystified as to how AJ's claim lead to Mish's death. He decides to vote Tina at the end. 

 

More spam then a comment to me. 

 

He jokes with Len about having two scum reads and willing to vote either.

 

He unvotes Tina to give her time.

 

He is still mystified about how AJ's claim lead to Mish's death. This time it was mentioned by Tina here. 

 

Tina's read through reminds him of something...That Despo has AJ pegged as Wolf yet votes Tina who he thinks is more likely mafia, but not wolf. He harps on that. (Is that bad? both are anti-town and need to be gotten rid of. Yes Tina turned out to be town, but why is it bad to vote for anti-town/scum reads?)

 

Says Tina's only pretending to read.

 

Votes Tina

 

He quotes AJ and says he thinks Des and Tina are on the same team and that Despo had to bus. Says he's pointed out previously why he thinks this. AJ points out that Yates time stamps don't match what he pointed out...and he says it ties in to why they wouldn't be on the same team.

[Kaylee]

That took almost 3 hours to go through... and I used the ISO feature!

 

Ok what I get from that is most the interactions were with Des and AJ.

 

I've been back and forth on both and would like to see pressure on both.

 

Best to start off with pressuring with more than one vote. Also, nice look through AJ...that didn't take long. After all that you're mostly basing connections on Tina's train?

 

Vote AJ

[Kaylee]

Ok, I'm going to bed.

[Andrej]

Nice case work Kaylee. So you're saying that the two wagons for today should be the two that interacted with Yates the most? Don't really see how the fact that I posted mine faster means anything... you must've just been trying to be sarcastic there.

 

So which team do you think I belong to then?

 

Yates has flipped mafia. You think I'm his teammate? Explain to me please how that would work when I fake-claimed Seer and have suggested we let a lynch go random in order to play the 50/50 odds of hitting scum. Both of which have put in the spotlight as 'things a Townie wouldn't do'. What would my motivations be for that if I were scum? More specifically mafia?

 

Don't think that scummy hammer of yours didn't go unnoticed after the mentioning of letting the lynch go random yesterday. I'm beginning to think you're afraid of what your coroner would show.

 

Does it need to be pointed out that you've been on both Town wagons? I already stated that I found your case on Tina pretty suspect with the way you used the NK as a means to incriminate her.

[BFG]

This is just a quick response to AJ before I reread. (some spoiler tags added)

 

 

Sneaky Darthe getting us to listen to metal...  It is 24 hours though right?  or was anyway.

 

AJs vote is interesting.  No case on Des, the only one I've seen is from Tina a couple of pages back, and after that she votes Yates.  AJ has Yates & Des as a werewolf team but votes Des, even though Yates has already had one vote on him (although it's since been removed). 

 

 

Hallia posted to say she was going to try and catch up, any thoughts?

 

 

I'll be around tonight to vote, but may not be around at deadline.

 

What exactly was the point of this commentary?

 

 

 

 

Yep! I've finally caught up.  I initially was pretty darned sure AJ was scummy with the early back and forth between him and Cloud and then the night claim of the seer.  However, it's been mentioned several times it could've been to draw the NK to him.  From what I know of AJ and his play, I think this is the most likely scenario. So right now, I think he's town.  Looking back, this is what else stood out to me.

 

Either way, this is kind of an easy choice for me. Unvote, Vote Cloud.

If you're going to act like an initial fos on someone was a trap or to kick start the game, don't pull the ol "oh man, maybe I really was onto something!" routine and keep trying to case the dude you fos'd. The original for was weak, scum means any antitown role so there was no slip imo. Except for a bit of possible AtE in some of his recent posts, AJ's responses to this whole thing seem fine to me.

But Cloud acting all upset that AJ isn't more suspicious of Pray and not just him reeks like hell. He's tried diverting focus to Pray multiple times. Then the whole Unvote rolled together with the "y'all will lynch me now anyways :sad:" AtE was just as obvious of scum backpedaling as you can get. Not to mention that Cloud seemed to try ducking AJ's question about whether Cloud thought him mafia or werewolf. A veritable orgy of evidence, as it were.
 

I wonder if this isn't some subtle team defense between despo and pral

 

Then these couple of people pinged for me, with the flimsy votes on Cloud

 

Ok, I'll tip the scales.  I'm sticking to my earlier feeling that I'd rather lynch Cloud based on his "reaction testing" excuse.

 

Vote: Cloud

 

Unvote Vote Cloud

 

I had forgotten about the deadline. I just voted for the train I felt the strongest about. 

 

Yup im caught up.

 

Vote Cloud We really dont have time for anyone but him or AJ at this point and Cloud is much scummier to me.

 

Whilst I am suspicious slightly of Despo, he makes really good points for Tina's lynch (the most being because I like freedom, unicorns and fresh marmalade   )

 

I'd say it looks more and more like you are going all-in to try and prevent Tina's lynch.

 

I can understand you saying that AJ's move hurt the town. I'd be likely to agree with you there (and good point with the other probabilities), and that's why there are many who greatly discourage game talk during night phases (personally I'm cool with it, as long as you accept the inherent risk). But anti-town doesn't necessarily mean scum. We have to make sure and lynch definite scum, since we won't be able to slip by with as many mislynches this game (considering the original scum ratio was 5:7 town). So you can't "punish" AJ for doing something that hurt town if it's likely that he's town himself.

 

And as I already laid out, it's very likely that he is town at this point. False claiming during the night as scum would expose yourself way too much, for little gain, and with reduced numbers (only 2 and 3 on each respective team), I don't think you'll see scum doing much to expose themselves this game.

 

Tina on the other hand, has a substantial amount of evidence against her.

 

1. Nudged at Mish while keeping her vote parked on AJ (scum love parking their vote)

2. After being pressed for why she was voting AJ, she acted like she couldn't be bothered to restate the reasons, and instead referred others to her original post where she voted AJ (even while she continuously brought up points against Mish)

3. Pulled a 180 after day ended (said she no longer wanted a Mish lynch, after going at her for a while. Looks like she saw there wouldn't be much support for a Mish lynch and jumped ship)

4. Issued a strange cryptic way-too-obvious statement. Tina: "Looks like scum are fine with lynching anyone that's not scum" Everyone else: "Uhm, yeah... they're scum"

5. Used said bizarre statement to try and direct town focus on four names without giving any reasons why those four should be focused on (and she still hasn't said why btw)

 

A vote for Tina is a vote for town victory. Arguing against voting Tina is like arguing against freedom, unicorns, and fresh marmalade.

 

 

 

I'm pretty suspicious of Kay, Verb, and Lenlo, but the case right there makes a lot of sense.

 

Vote Tina

 

No Yates? FOS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

(should have included a /sarcasm) Because it should be obvious.  The preferred outcome of night is always going to be for wolves to kill mafia that way there's one scum down instead of another Town as well as the possibility of being able to start trying to link people.  Neither yours nor Tinas statement to that effect sit's right with me.

 

What happened to Tinas case on Yates?  Would still like to hear from Lenlo (and Hallia)

 

So you agree with my train of thought but just have a problem that I voiced it?

 

@Darthe - Is Hallia being replaced in this game as well? I know she subbed out of her last one.

 

 

Sorry missed this earlier.  Yes I agree with the sentiment and have a problem with the way you said it.

 

 

unvote

 

Alright let's look at those trains more closely.

 

Right now I have good town reads on BFG and Verbal. I'm leaning Town on Kaylee as well. Add me in and you've got one more slot for Town... In my mind that leaves likely Pral, Yates, Tina or possibly Hallia.

 

...

 

So, putting my thoughts on paper: Des/Yates are the werewolf team. But then who does that leave for Lenlo's partners on the mafia team? Seeing as how he said earlier he could go for me or Tina I don't think Tina would apply. Both him and Pral voted me out the gates today but Pral has done a better job justifying his vote IMO other than Lenlo's "He lied. Lynch him" biz. Kaylee has been on both trains the last two days but so have I... so not sure about that.

...

 

Typo?  You have Yates as a possible town, but in each of your combos he's down as the wolf team with Des.

 

Not a typo. At the time I was beginning to see a pattern and was putting my thoughts out there for others to see. Out of the two, I admit I had more of a Town read on Yates. Obviously I was wrong there.

 

Des is still calling to the high heavens about how scummy Yates is, using meta from the Kingdom Hearts game in this instance, but keeps his vote parked on Tina.

Des or Lenlo lynch is the way to go. I'd rather kill a suspected wolf but mafia would be just as fine too.

 

The difference between Des and Tina is that Des is still arguing for a Tina lynch.

 

Not sure what it's worth, but at the moment I think Tina and Lenlo are scum and am starting to lean scum on AJ.  Having huge difficulty reading Hallia & Verbal, currently a town read on Kaylee and keep changing my mind about everyone else.  

 

Vote Tina

 

I'm off to bed, but should be up again before the deadline.

 

Explain please.

 

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

For his teammates... I've got BFG and Hallia as potential. Not a big fan of how they came in and put Tina at L-1 after her lynch had stalled out.

 

Don't like Lenlo's lack of contribution, didn't really see anything between him and Yates other than them occasionally commenting on current game events. They were also usually on the opposing sides.

 

Scrap the Des/Yates wolf combo (obviously). I doubt that Des is mafia at this point but I'm not thinking he's Town either. Hallia pointed something out earlier about his comments on Pral when it came to the Cloud case which I found a little interesting.

 

For now I'll vote Des since I still think the wolves are a bigger threat and I have him pegged for one.

 

 

 

 

 

Underlined - Not sure what you mean?  I was commenting on the things that stood out to me.  I'm assuming it's either my comment on you or Hallia that your questions about.

 

I thought the placement in votes was interesting and worth commenting on.  I was wondering why you placed the vote on Des instead of Yates so close to deadline when Yates had already had one vote placed on him.  Given Tina's flip this doesn't mean what I thought it might.

 

Hallia posted at 6pm (my time) to say that she was catching up.  I was asking 15 hours later if she had any thoughts.  Looking at the time stamps now I'm suspicious of how quickly after I posted she answered. 

 

 

 

Green - I've already posted my thoughts on Lenlo and Tina.  I'm not sure about you yet.  You were my strongest read on Day 1, but most of what I picked up is explained by your seer gambit. But I'm uncomfortable with the assumption that that gambit makes you Town, there were also a few things like your reads on Des/Yates matching Tina (who I had a scum read on) and your groups that don't match your original statements that pinged.  Given Tinas flip, I'm still trying to think it through.

 

 

Incidentally - you initially had Yates/Des as the werewolf team because they were arguing with each other (possible distancing) while both having their votes placed elsewhere.  What changed to make you think they're on different teams now? 

[Kaylee]

AJ: It's the text that you said you were also going to look at Yates posts for connects and had done that and posted thoughts roughly 25 minutes later. It just seemed quick since he had 2 pages worth of posts on ISO. Didn't say that was why I suspected you.

 

It's also not the fact that you two interacted the most either. Read the whole post and you'll see there were possible defending/distancing with the both of you. It's just a theory and one vote. I'm also taking into consideration previous game play. I've said I was suspicious of you both already.

 

As to which team I'm not sure. Just know I find you both suspicious.

 

The fake claim could easily be a town cred move. It would make more sense if you are wolf. There's the pointing out to Yates that my post about his ISO was from another game. Seemed before that Yates was starting to let the ISO thing go. You come along and point that out and the whole thing starts again. I suppose this too would make sense as you being wolf. If you were teammates why not just say so on the QT? It read to me as you putting fuel on the fire. A wolf still needs to scumhunt and also get rid of townies.

 

As for the random...same thing. Wolfs still need to get rid of townies and mafia alike. It seems like "how could I possibly be scum guys?" Not getting a townie vibe.

 

I already said I wasn't afraid of being a random target. You're ignoring what I've said previously about randoms giving you less info. Even if it hits a wolf or mafia, if they haven't been active then what does that tell us about their connections? Very little, so not pro-townie to me.

 

Last point is WEAK. I've already said why I was on Clouds train. I found the case against him made sense, and we needed a lynch so I sheeped. As for Tina I really thought when I made that case that she was Wolf. I said later that I was unsure and unvoted. Then when deadline came close I hammered. I figured better to be wrong and get the info then chance not getting anything.

[Kaylee]

 

Incidentally - you initially had Yates/Des as the werewolf team because they were arguing with each other (possible distancing) while both having their votes placed elsewhere. What changed to make you think they're on different teams now?

I cut this down...she makes a good point here.

[Verbal32]

I don't like this push on AJ. It would be suicidal to make that play as wolf or mafia. The easiest explanation is he's town. Personally, I'm more interested in Pralaya and Lenlo. My interactions with them yesterday were largely one-sided, especially Lenlo.

 

Vote: Lenlo

[Andrej]

 

Incidentally - you initially had Yates/Des as the werewolf team because they were arguing with each other (possible distancing) while both having their votes placed elsewhere. What changed to make you think they're on different teams now?

I cut this down...she makes a good point here.

 

 

Did you guys miss the part where Yates died and flipped mafia??

 

Kaylee you're really going out on a limb here.

[Andrej]

AJ: It's the text that you said you were also going to look at Yates posts for connects and had done that and posted thoughts roughly 25 minutes later. It just seemed quick since he had 2 pages worth of posts on ISO. Didn't say that was why I suspected you.

 

It's also not the fact that you two interacted the most either. Read the whole post and you'll see there were possible defending/distancing with the both of you. It's just a theory and one vote. I'm also taking into consideration previous game play. I've said I was suspicious of you both already.

 

Firstly, I did read the post and took note of the things you talked about. Defending/distancing would only work if Yates and I were teammates. He flipped mafia... you go on later to use points suggesting I am a wolf.

As to which team I'm not sure. Just know I find you both suspicious.

 

Pretty obv-Town by now.

 

The fake claim could easily be a town cred move. It would make more sense if you are wolf. There's the pointing out to Yates that my post about his ISO was from another game. Seemed before that Yates was starting to let the ISO thing go. You come along and point that out and the whole thing starts again. I suppose this too would make sense as you being wolf. If you were teammates why not just say so on the QT? It read to me as you putting fuel on the fire. A wolf still needs to scumhunt and also get rid of townies.

 

You mean the fake claim that had me in yesterday's spotlight as being the last thing a Townie should/would do? There are several posts where you agree with others about how it seemed like I was fishing out the Seer instead of drawing the NK. How does that work for me if I'm seeking Town cred? About the ISO thing I pointed out something that was odd to me. It's true that you weren't in that game, so I found it weird that you called him out on it so quickly when others who were in that game hadn't. Don't see how that makes me a wolf.

 

As for the random...same thing. Wolfs still need to get rid of townies and mafia alike. It seems like "how could I possibly be scum guys?" Not getting a townie vibe.

 

Wolves control the NK. What would I need to suggest a random for? I could've hammered Tina yesterday just to move into Night so I could kill again. Oh, wait... 

 

Besides, think about the odds there. As a wolf, even if they had the smallest chance of being hit, there was still a chance. 50% Town. 30% Mafia, 20% Wolf = 50% scum. Pretty obvious that those odds are favorable: for Town.

 

I already said I wasn't afraid of being a random target. You're ignoring what I've said previously about randoms giving you less info. Even if it hits a wolf or mafia, if they haven't been active then what does that tell us about their connections? Very little, so not pro-townie to me.

 

Normally I'd agree that a random isn't helpful, but in this instance it could've been simply because we had a good chance to kill scum. It more so becomes a PoE after that. Killing scum in a game like this where the ratio is so high is helpful. Period. Another thing, you keep preaching about how much info we get from lynches but also call me out for using Tina's lynch to draw conclusions?? See the bolded in the quote below.

Last point is WEAK. I've already said why I was on Clouds train. I found the case against him made sense, and we needed a lynch so I sheeped. As for Tina I really thought when I made that case that she was Wolf. I said later that I was unsure and unvoted. Then when deadline came close I hammered. I figured better to be wrong and get the info then chance not getting anything.

 

That took almost 3 hours to go through... and I used the ISO feature!

 

Ok what I get from that is most the interactions were with Des and AJ.

 

I've been back and forth on both and would like to see pressure on both.

 

Best to start off with pressuring with more than one vote. Also, nice look through AJ...that didn't take long. After all that you're mostly basing connections on Tina's train?

 

Vote AJ

 

[BFG]

I don't like this push on AJ. It would be suicidal to make that play as wolf or mafia. The easiest explanation is he's town. Personally, I'm more interested in Pralaya and Lenlo. My interactions with them yesterday were largely one-sided, especially Lenlo.

 

Vote: Lenlo

 

 

I've spent some time trying to figure out the advantages of this as a Town, mafia or werewolf, and although out of the three I think Town is more likely, I'm not willing to rule out the alternatives.

 

Town

 

The Pro-Town argument has been made, for a VT to draw the NK would be better then losing the seer, however to me it would be more Town to make this gambit on Night 2 or 3.  On Night 1 there was a 1/9 chance they'd hit the seer, unless there were tells that I missed prior to AJs gambit (if there were please tell me).  But in Night 2 it would be a 1/7 or 1/8 (if we'd managed to get a werewolf), by Night 3 a 1/5 or 1/6 (I think).  Conversely the seers chances of finding a werewolf increase each night as people are cleared through viewings/lynching/nightkills. 

 

Of course just because I think it's more protown to try this gambit later on doesn't mean it's anti-town to try it Night 1. 

 

Werewolf

 

This is risky, in some ways, although they also have an obvious gain.  Even if Mish's (and our) reactions hadn't left her so exposed on Night 1 - AJs actions would have resulted in a lot of talk that could be analysed, giving them a reasonable chance of identifying the Seer during the course of Night 1, Day 2, Night 2.  Darthe, pregame, stated that he almost lost a game for Town by revealing after he found 1 werewolf.  So, assuming AJ was a wolf and Mish viewed N1, then she is still likely to find the second wolf before she reveals.  So that means she wouldn't reveal until Day 3, which gives them 2 nights and a lynch to attempt to find the seer.  If it works however, they get the seer and, because it's easier to argue a pro-town gambit, they have a 'confirmed' townie until the end of the game and an excellent chance of winning. 

 

The other problem is that if the seer isn't found during or prior to Night 2 then he has to explain why he's still alive.  Which is why the reveal had to be so scummy.  Given that most people posting were skeptical of the claim, means that it's possible to argue that the werewolves would leave him alive as it distracts Town from hunting scum.

 

This also only works with a Night 1 reveal, as there's a chance if they waited that the second werewolf would have been found Night 1, and Night 2 gives the seer the second werewolf, before the werewolves have a chance to respond.

 

This is obviously a really risky strategy as it relies on the reactions of the seer, but it could win them the game.

 

Mafia

 

The argument here is similar to that for the werewolves with a slight change in emphasis.  This time the seer views them N1 and sees non-werewolf and keeps quiet.  The same reactions are garnered, the same chance of outing the seer, and although this is primarily an advantage for the werewolves, mafia wouldn't want a confirmed townie through to the end either (unless of course it's one of them). 

 

The key risk here is that the werewolves don't know that he isn't the seer, so have no reason not to target him N1, unless they've also thought through the seer waiting for 2 confirmations before revealing.  Again, talk would likely focus on the reveal instead of hunting scum directly, giving werewolves an advantage (and possible reason not to NK straight away).  This time the other 2 members of the team use the Night and Day to prod people that had interesting reactions to try and reveal the seer, leaving the real seer open to a NK and their mafia as a confirmed townie (on the assumption that with the Seer dead, the werewolves are going to concentrate on finding Mafia over VT)  It's also risky, but if the werewolves can be exposed, again potentially gets them a 'confirmed' townie through to the end game.

 

This could work on any night.

 

 

 

To be clear, I would give the Town gambit the better odds, but I don't want to rule the others out and give scum a clear shot through to the end. 

 

 

 

 

Incidentally - you initially had Yates/Des as the werewolf team because they were arguing with each other (possible distancing) while both having their votes placed elsewhere. What changed to make you think they're on different teams now?

I cut this down...she makes a good point here.

 

 

Did you guys miss the part where Yates died and flipped mafia??

 

Kaylee you're really going out on a limb here.

 

 

No, but I wasn't asking why you weren't viewing them as werewolves, but why you no longer thought them to be on the same team?  Now Yates has flipped mafia, why don't you think Des is mafia as well?  I thought your initial point about the distancing was good, and wondered what had changed to negate this point. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For now,

 

vote Lenlo

 

His voting patterns have been strange for the past couple of Days.

 

Day 1 (my analysis of the votes at the time)

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/page-22?do=findComment&comment=3064743

 

Day 2

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/?p=3064057

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/?p=3064424

 

assuming the iso ordered them correctly he votes AJ in one post and in the next immediately switches to Tina with very little pressure or reason given.

[Kaylee]

AJ: I pointed out what I thought and why. I don't expect you to agree. I don't find your play to be townie so JLM leaving my vote.

[Pralaya]

Okay so we're at 4v2v2 now. Still 50/50 if we go random, just saying.

 

My reads are all fubar'd after Yates's flip. Still leaning Town on Verb and Kaylee, although lesser for her. 

 

 

 

Sorry little loves, a pretty metal goddess fell sick from ROCKING too hard and called me away to a day of her affections.  I don't intend for this to happen again.

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT: 

AJ (4/7): Laya, Tina, BFG, Hally

Cloud (7/7): Des, Verb, Yates, Kay, Len, Mish, AJ

Tina (1/7): Cloud

 

Not Metal (0/12): 

As it should be.

 

But is he town or is he scum?  Is he scum or is he town?  Is he wolfie or kosher?

 

 

 

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

AJ (1/6): Laya

Des (2/6): AJ, Tina

Len (1/6): Verb

 

Not Voting (0/10):

 

 

Not sure what to think of Pral at this point. He's had his vote parked on me the last two days and only really comes in to hammer on me some more. I'd like for him to start playing and analyzing.

 

So... mashing combos in my head again.

 

 

Like I said earlier, I still suspect you as the wolf. Unfortunately, not many think the same as me. On both Day 1 and Day 1, the only other alternative was Cloud and Tina, neither of whom I believed scum. I had a town vibe on both and had no wish to vote them. I don't think it is a co-incidence how the focus totally  shifted off you and led to other trains.

 

Anyway, Yates flipping made me go back to look at the post again. But before that, the vote count that you posted does seem interesting.

 

Cloud (7/7): Des, Verb, Yates, Kay, Len, Mish, AJ

Tina (6/6): Des, Len, Yates, Hally, BFG, Kaylee

 

Look at the number of common people in both the lynches. Des, Yates, Len, Kaylee and BFG. Understood that there are only 12 people in the game and there are bound to be people who vote in both places. I am more interested in seeing early votes since the later votes were all due to deadline pressure. Remember, AJ and Kaylee both had votes on Tina at the start of Day 2 and conveniently slipped out during the end once it was almost sure she would be lynched. Kaylee hammered eventually.

 

Looking back on Yates posts with the now available information that he was mafia. Both Kaylee and Des have a strong argument with him on a frivolous ISO slip. That is not that big a slip that other players will latch on to vote Yates. However,it is good enough to make it look as if they suspect Yates. In other words, it is a perfect distancing maneuver. I don't think both of them will use the same tactic - so I am sure only one of them is scum teammate of Yates. The other could be town or wolf.

 

Let's look at Des first. He went hard on both Cloud and Tina, pouncing on opportunities presented to him.

In case of Cloud, it was his vote on AJ and eventual backtracking. In case of Tina, it was her fight with Mish.

In fact, he started his case against Tina on N1 itself, leading to quick votes on Tina as soon as D2 started. That looked really suspicious.

 

 

This sucks. The charger to my laptop is messed up I just found out, and my laptop's almost dead. So yeah, I might be confined to my phone for a bit unless I can get the charger to work.

 

Either way, this is kind of an easy choice for me. Unvote, Vote Cloud.

 

If you're going to act like an initial fos on someone was a trap or to kick start the game, don't pull the ol "oh man, maybe I really was onto something!" routine and keep trying to case the dude you fos'd. The original for was weak, scum means any antitown role so there was no slip imo. Except for a bit of possible AtE in some of his recent posts, AJ's responses to this whole thing seem fine to me.

 

But Cloud acting all upset that AJ isn't more suspicious of Pray and not just him reeks like hell. He's tried diverting focus to Pray multiple times. Then the whole Unvote rolled together with the "y'all will lynch me now anyways :sad:" AtE was just as obvious of scum backpedaling as you can get. Not to mention that Cloud seemed to try ducking AJ's question about whether Cloud thought him mafia or werewolf. A veritable orgy of evidence, as it were.

 

Also thought BFG could have been possibly trying to cover for a teammate, the way he tried diverting attention to Kay and Hallia for no apparent reason. If Cloud flips scum I'd bet BFG is his teammate.

 

Prob more I wanted to comment on but oh well, I'll try and fix my charger.

 

 

Actual case on Tina is here - http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-3-dark-grounds-and-an-open-mic/?p=3063157

 

What a bummer.

 

Vote Tina.

 

Fwiw, while I DEF think Tina is scum, I think it's somewhat wishful thinking to hope that her team sent in the kill on Mish. It would be nice, since if she flipped as werewolf and my theory about her and Yates being scumbuddies is true, then we could potentially take away the NK after just two nights. However, I think she would have known that Mish's death would prob make her look bad, especially after nudging Mish a good bit yesterday only to say she wasn't interested in a Mish lynch anymore at night. So I doubt that she's a werewolf, most likely mafia imo.

 

 

 

Kaylee has been all over the place - her main reads have been Cloud, Tina, Des, Yates and now AJ. Though a lot of those posts seem townish, a few stand out. Especially I don't like the way she basically sheeped AJ and unvoted Tina and finally hammered her. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We've still got enough time to secure another lynch today other than Tina. I'm not 100% sold that she is Town because her D1 actions were bad IMO but she has played well today I think. The way she stacked up to L-1 pretty quickly also makes me a bit uneasy.

 

After some thought my best two options are Des or Lenlo at this point.

 

Seeing as how I think Des is likely a wolf, I figure he is more dangerous to Town atm.

 

vote Des 

Bold: reading back I also think her D2 posts seem more likely town but her D1 actions still stand out to me. She did get to L-1 quickly, but also stayed there. Not sure what that means since we have two teams against town.

 

Some good points were made against Des as well. (I didn't grab them because I was more looking at Tina and it's getting late for me.)

 

Basically Tina seems like she's scum hunting now. That could be she's on one anti-town team and seeking out the other though. Not sure but feeling a bit less confident about her now so...

 

Unvote

 

I will have time to check back in in the morning and vote accordingly...or the afternoon. I feel Yates or Des would be a good lynch, or at least good to pressure...I'll re-vote Tina if need be. For now I'm going to bed.

 

 

 

 

And, she basically voted Cloud, as she admits herself, because that was the train she felt the strongest about. 

 

 

 

I had forgotten about the deadline. I just voted for the train I felt the strongest about. 

 

 

 

 

Between the two, however, Des seems to be the more scummy and opportunistic, especially shifting the focus of the lynch to both Cloud and Tina. 

 

My reads are as follows,

 

Andrej - scum

Len - slightly leaning scum

BFG* -  not much to tell. Leaning town

Des - scum

Kaylee - Could be scum

Hally - not much to tell. Leaning town

Verb - leaning town

 

Based on these I am voting Des . I am open to AJ too, since my scum tell on him has not been altered