Ten days after Samhain, 1057: Night 5 (CONCLUDED)

[Lenlo]

I can see both sides of the coin for Csarmi's lynch.  You are right Nol, in that it has spawned lots and lots of opinions and information.  I don't know that we should kill him across the board though; it seems kinda harsh.

This feels like fence sitting to me.

[Hallia]

I just don't think what he did was scummy enough to merit the rapid and single train on him across the way with nothing else being considered.

[dapianoplay3r]

 

Then we should start trying to give thread by thread reads. Use the evidence from other threads if you want but make thread specific FOS and stuff

 

This should've been obvious to everyone from the start...

Some people seem to need a captain obvious

[Yates]

Damn.

[hazelkrs1]

I can see both sides of the coin for Csarmi's lynch. You are right Nol, in that it has spawned lots and lots of opinions and information. I don't know that we should kill him across the board though; it seems kinda harsh.

Its not about "punishing" Csalarmi or anything. The reasoning behind this move us twofold: His c/p vote posts look like an attempt to mask meta, which means he could be scum in at least one thread. There's not really any other way to find out which thread he's scum in besides lynching him in all 3.

 

The second thing is that this being a diff type of game than we've really seen before, it gives us an opportunity to try an unusual strategy. Its cross-thread meta. Use Csalarmi's lynch to judge differences in players reactions across all three threads, and there is a wondrous opportunity to gain info from each lynch, regardless of how Csalarmi flips in each one.

[serra]

What is with some people and disagreeing with strategies on moral grounds? I see the game as follows: the mod gives us certain rules as a framework to work within, and whether scum or town, we should do whatever strategy will give us the best chance at winning. Nothing in a game should be taken personally, but there really isnt any room for feeling sorry for people.

 

Anywho, bg is really a bit off in this thread. The unvote was scummy.

 

 

 

Hey y'all. I read the three threads and I gotta say that, for the most part, I have to agree with what Nolder, Yates, and people have been saying. We'll probably have about 5/6 scum per thread, which is about 1/4. If we can identify someone who is certainly scum in at least one of the games, our optimal strategy is to start lynching him in the game in which he is scummiest. If he flips scum, it isn't particularly likely that he'll flip scum again, so it's better to refocus on someone else, whereas if he flips town, that only increases the chance of him being scum in the other games.

 

As to Cserna: he deliberately started his three threads in the same manner - with the exact same phrasing, in fact. If he were town in all three threads, his natural thought process wouldn't be to determine how to convince people of the fact that he is the same in all three, but rather he would react naturally and fluidly to what had been posted. His uniformity across the threads is forced as f anything. I'm certain he's scum in at least one of his threads, if not two, so starting by lynching him in his scummiest thread is really our best move at this point.

 

Cserna, would you be willing to claim the game(s) in which you are scum? If you do, we'll lynch you there, and since it would then be disadvantageous for us to lynch you elsewhere, leave you alive in your other game(s). If you do not claim a game in which you are scum, we will start lynching according to popular opinion, so probably with this thread, until we hit scum. Look at this as a compromise:  rather than lose 2 or even 3 slots (depending on how well we read you), you can survive today with 2 slots intact.

 

I very much intend to vote Cserna once I have a good idea about which thread I'd most rather see him lynched and preferably once he's responded to my question.

 

Given the entirely cross-thread nature of the case for voting Cserna, I'm a bit surprised by the difference between the wagons on him (Gosh this is unusual terminology :/). I'll look at his wagons and see whether I can find potential scumbuddies wanting to avoid an early bus. I'll have to rely on you guys for helping me out with meta about that. I assume most of you have played with each other and can at least suggest whether others would join an early wagon to get their scumbuddy lynched. I know Ree and Yates wouldn't hesitate joining an early bus wagon, but I know many people that would.

 

Once I see a useful way to differentiate the three threads, I'll start posting isolated reads for each thread, but from a first readthrough, Cserna was my primary interest, and I think all that remains is deciding where to lynch him first.

 

Also a pretty scummy post imo. Overjustification of reasoning, but the main thing that stood out to me is the awful probability theory that CSarmi is scum in one thread only, and to just lynch him in one if he flips scum in that lynch. He could be scum in all 3 for all you know.

 

This strongly makes me believe Serra is Csarlami's scumbuddy in one of the threads. Imo, lynch Csarlami in all 3, and then there's an OUSTANDING chance Serra is scum in one or more of the threads that Csarlami flips scum in.

 

I think these are the current VC's for Cserna:

 

Thread 1: Salami (10/12): Leelou, Cloud, Nol, Yates, Verb, Ishy, Razen , BG, Dap, Krak

Thread 2: Salami (7/12): Nolder, Cloud, Yates, Verb, Leelou, Razen, Dap, 

 

Thread 3: Salami (8/12): Nol, Yates, Verb, Leelou, Razen, Cloud, Peace, Dap

 

This is less interesting than I'd hoped. The Peace vote in 3 is the worst, but not by much, really. It's quite likely that Ishy, Verbal and Yates AREN'T Cserna's buddy in the respective game where he RVS'ed them. If he's going to bother maintaining uniformity like that, I'd bet he would also avoid that sort of association with his buddies. Each Cserna-flip would thus come with an additional prob-town slot, which is a pretty good incentive if you aren't convinced yet.

 

[insert confused Jackie Chan face here]

 

Train analysis without an alignment on anyone yet? And knowing that there's a cross thread meta strategy going on?

 

Yeah... FOS.

 

In chronological order:

 

I actually quite like Csarmi1 early on, he reacts well to the first vote by leelou. This breaks down once he gets voted in all 3 threads, but I don't think that's because he's scum here.

 

Clouds post about Csarmi are the closest to scumhunting in the thread as of page 3. He can be town in this one.

 

Yates not commenting about anything going on here is off. I'd expect more.

 

Peace engaging with Csarmi when he didn't really have to is town. There's enough noise going around that scum could easily start off coasting.

 

Is lolguy = chuckles?

 

If yes, I don't really get Csarmi's vote. Csarmi, just putting it down to your gut feeling is a cop out. If not a full case, can you at least point to some posts you didn't like?

 

Dap, how come you don't like me in this thread? All of my posts so far except this one had been global, I just so happened to choose thread 1 to compile them. I'd understand if you disagree with my points as a whole, but it's weird you'd give me a thread-specific read based on them.

 

Defends both Csarlami and Cloud early, two I found scummy in my catchup, but I'm more concerned with the bolded: That is doing EXACTLY what people are saying is scummy from Csarlami, attempting to mask meta in all three threads.

 

Incidentally, this isn't a terrible idea, but it's even more useful to someone who's scum in at least one thread.

 

So yeah, pretty sure Serra is scum in at least one thread. Haven't read the other threads yet, but he's pinging greatly to me in this one.

 

Overjustification of reasoning is something I actually get quite a lot...but I do genuinely believe staggered lynching is better, so I wanted to make sure I was getting that point across. I'm getting really rather bored by people attacking my maths. Of course Cserna MIGHT be scum in 2 or even 3, but the most likely scenario by a fair margin is that he's only scum in 1. If you accept that using cross-thread reasoning, we can say something like "we are at least 90% certain that Csarmi is scum in one or more games", then we can indeed increase our expected number of scumlynches by lynching Csarmi until he's flipped scum once. I suppose my reasoning is sort of falling on deaf ears, though...

 

Your accusation that I'm somehow trying to save Csarmi in one of the threads by suggesting a lynch order is a bit silly (at least I think that's what you're implying). For that to work, I'd have to assume Csarmi actually IS scum in another thread (which isn't very likely at all). Otherwise, that would just be a really silly strategy for me to get myself lynched along with Csarmi. (For what it's worth, I don't hesitate to bus when my scumbuddy is being run up...not that you have any reason to believe me.)

 

Wagon analysis without flips is generally useless, yes, but in this case we have the unique situation of having the same wagon three times. Even without having any flips, we can compare the wagons to find irregularities. In this instance, I think peace's thread 3 vote was the most concerning.

 

As it happens, I do still believe Csarmi is town in this thread, but I suppose we'll see if/when he gets lynched.

 

As to my global posts, that was what I decided to dedicate my first post to because it was the first thing that was really obvious to me. I'd quickly read all three threads, so I decided to compile my thoughts thus far, with the intention to get onto thread-specific reads directly after.

 

 

Once again, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking a novel approach to this game which will OBVIOUSLY be played a bit different than most games. They're obviously connected thematically, and in other ways, so I see nothing wrong with basically playing them collectively until each starts to take on it's own identity.

 

 

What do you mean by the bold part?

 

Lenlo makes a good point about Hallia fencesitting.

 

Yates is way too passive in this one. Serious FOS.

[Darthe]

That is true. Didn't Darthe call him Trogdor for a while in response? I'm just tender hearted XD

[Yates]

Passive?  LOL.  Check the threads.  I haven't been online since last night except for a post or two on my phone.  The reason is explained in the merger thread with the score count and all that - I was traveling all day today.

[serra]

That wasn't necessarily just a reflection on your recent posts, I just dislike that you've been doing most of your reasoning in other threads.

 

On an unrelated note, how do you deal with all the noise? Have people tried instigating "lynch all lurkers" and PL's around here? I find my reads containing a HUGE block of nulls, which is rather worrying indeed. Worse, it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

[John E. Kelley]

it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Welcome to DM mafia. Enjoy the ride.

[hazelkrs1]

@Serra: overall that wasn't a terrible response. I can understand that if you're usually very wordy you can be accused of over justification till people get used to your playing style. Similar kind of thing used to happen with me and my WoT's. I still think it was over justifying however, we'll have to see if I'm right eventually.

 

As for the thing about him most likely being scum in one thread instead of more than one, that's a probabilities theory and those just straight up don't really belong in mafia. Whether its unlikely or not, it should be considered if there's evidence to back it up. Someone could get lucky enough (or unlucky, depending on how you look at it) and be scum in all 3 threads. Heck, look at Darthe's recent alignment history, he was scum in like 9 games in a row or something.

 

I don't just think that you could be trying to save a scumbuddy by assuming he could be scum in another thread, the point was I feel you were leading us towards a path that wasn't smart. As I said, once you go forth with a move like this, you gotta commit fully. Csalarmi has to be lynched in all 3, otherwise it makes it pointless to have lynched him in any one.

 

My point about the early wagon analysis is that you were jumping the gun. It would be much more prudent to wait for flips Tull you do such a thing, as any info gained would completely trump info gained from analysis before the flips. I think you were trying to gain town cred by looking like you were scumhunting.

 

As for the ways the threads are connected, there's theme, player pool, collective scoring system, and the fact that they're being run concurrently. I mentioned as much in response to Ishy on one of these threads.

[Yates]

Oh.  I guess I've just been responding to the dumber less convincing arguments as they pop up.  I hadn't really noticed that I was posting any more or less in any of the threads.  Right now?  It's all one big game [though obviously T2 will be different come morning] for me.

 

Lynch all lurkers doesn't fly here.  I can't say I disagree.  Scum lurking is still valid, though.

 

Yeah, the nulls will be an issue for a bit.  I'm hoping to see this gambit through to completion THEN I can start focusing on a single thread at a time. 

[Yates]

 

it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Yeah.  I have ways of dealing with this.  I've played one game here and one with some of these characters.  It won't be an issue for long.  People that don;t make cases will be FoSed and start getting run up.  Ask Haillie.

[hazelkrs1]

 

it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Welcome to DM mafia. Enjoy the ride.

Pretty much lol. No qq'ing tho, or else I'll bust out my bongos for some kumbayah.

 

I did actually have an idea about the lurking thing tho... Perhaps instituting another cross-thread meta strategy in the next couple of days where we look at who might be the "lurkiest" across all three threads and metalynch them. Will be a huge deterrent against inactivity, will give a fairly good shot of catching scum in at least one if we pick a good enough target (maybe someone who usually doesn't lurk quite as much), and the meta strategy will once again let us do some cross-thread analysis.

[Yates]

I did actually have an idea about the lurking thing tho... Perhaps instituting another cross-thread meta strategy in the next couple of days where we look at who might be the "lurkiest" across all three threads and metalynch them. Will be a huge deterrent against inactivity, will give a fairly good shot of catching scum in at least one if we pick a good enough target (maybe someone who usually doesn't lurk quite as much), and the meta strategy will once again let us do some cross-thread analysis.

As much as I love the idea of this?  I'm kind of hoping to have something a little more tangible to work with once the trilynch is done.

[Nolder]

That wasn't necessarily just a reflection on your recent posts, I just dislike that you've been doing most of your reasoning in other threads.

 

On an unrelated note, how do you deal with all the noise? Have people tried instigating "lynch all lurkers" and PL's around here? I find my reads containing a HUGE block of nulls, which is rather worrying indeed. Worse, it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Yes. I always get shouted down. Help me Serra, you're my only hope.

[John E. Kelley]

 

That wasn't necessarily just a reflection on your recent posts, I just dislike that you've been doing most of your reasoning in other threads.

 

On an unrelated note, how do you deal with all the noise? Have people tried instigating "lynch all lurkers" and PL's around here? I find my reads containing a HUGE block of nulls, which is rather worrying indeed. Worse, it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

 

Yes. I always get shouted down. Help me Serra, you're my only hope.

I'm totally down for that this time. Look at player posts after every thread has reached Day Two. You have less than ten posts in any of the three? Run 'em up. Let's do it.

[serra]

I'm a big fan of that idea, at least for a day or two to coax everyone to be active.

 

Also, it's not just the complete absence of posts, but some people drop in, banter with Darthe, and leave again...

[Hallia]

 

it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Yeah.  I have ways of dealing with this.  I've played one game here and one with some of these characters.  It won't be an issue for long.  People that don;t make cases will be FoSed and start getting run up.  Ask Haillie.

 

 

Yes, this is a true story.

[Mr. Ree]

Note to self, vote cloud...

[Mr. Ree]

Note to self: watch Serra.

[Hallia]

Mystery, what is your opinion on Csarmageddon?

[Lenlo]

 

 

That wasn't necessarily just a reflection on your recent posts, I just dislike that you've been doing most of your reasoning in other threads.

 

On an unrelated note, how do you deal with all the noise? Have people tried instigating "lynch all lurkers" and PL's around here? I find my reads containing a HUGE block of nulls, which is rather worrying indeed. Worse, it seems like only those people that put themselves out there catch any flak...

Yes. I always get shouted down. Help me Serra, you're my only hope.

I'm totally down for that this time. Look at player posts after every thread has reached Day Two. You have less than ten posts in any of the three? Run 'em up. Let's do it.

 

Im good with that. This game more than any other needs high activity.

[Mr. Ree]

All caught up.

 

Csarmi is prob town in this thread. So is Leelou (voted her in T3) lurky Yates worries me but I'm not quite thinking scum on him. Serra gets a huge FOS, especially after reading him in T3. I basically agree with Despot, aside from Csarmi, thinking town on him. Cloud's page 1 or 2 vote post still stands out after reading so he gets my vote.

 

vote: Cloud

 

Will catch up on the night game later. Phone is dead.

[Mr. Ree]

Thank you for putting my name together. You wouldn't believe how many people can't figure it out...