November 7th, 1606: Day 4 (CONCLUDED)

[serra]

Please only use editing for fixing minor errata.

My bad...  I always intend to immediately fix it with a follow-up post, but then someone gets in a post in between and it just all goes kaput.

[The Crusher]

 

 

 

Haha Des did the same 6 posts in every thread and no one gives a shit.

This. Call Salami out on doing it, yet Des gets a pass?

 

You're all idiots.

 

 

 

Easy there macho man.  I'm still catching up.  Salami never had a chance.  Still think scum sits in the meat of the Slalami train.

 

 

Dammit now I really want a sub.

 

 

Stop being a sissy.  Play it out. 

[WWWwombat]

S'ok. I'd imagine on MS you can't even edit. I would prefer that dynamic tbh, but I don't like to have to modkill people for fixing typos. Used to be you couldn't edit in mafia games at all here but then a lot of mods got lax and I was faced with having to give in, give out lame punishments, or modkill :/

 

So now I grumble and yell at the kids to get off my lawn.

[WWWwombat]

Also, I think I'd die if I had to modkill Hess.

[Tiinker]

My boy Razen has a point. 

 

Vote Cloud

I'm going to look over tomorrow morning and give thoughts. In the am's here.

[serra]

On MS you can't edit, but it warns you if you're about to post and there have been new posts.

[WWWwombat]

I think it kinda does that here too.

[Tiinker]

Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Like a French employee in that way. 

[Yates]

i dont get your vote dude ??

Was it this post that threw you off?

So... Cloud-Nol scum team in T2?

[Yates]

Quoted because Peace pulls out the early votes from both Leelou and Ishy on Cloud and casts them as early and bogus distancing. What I find interesting is now, Leelou and Ishy are both dead.  I don't know if that's coincidental or not, but I do find it interesting that he singled them out and that they're now both dead.

It would have to be coincidental that BOTH died - unless you think the scum can talk to the 2nd anti-Town party.

[Darthe]

Day 2 Official VC 1:

 

Peace (1/11): Serra

Cloud (4/11): Yates, Dap, Razen, Tiink

 

Not Voting (16/20):

Verb, Chuckles, Mish, Cloud, Hally, Nol, BG, Len, Crush, Des, Peace, Krak, Tina, Ree, Laya

 

2 days 21 hours remain

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130721T19&p0=745&msg=Night

[Razen]

 

Quoted because Peace pulls out the early votes from both Leelou and Ishy on Cloud and casts them as early and bogus distancing. What I find interesting is now, Leelou and Ishy are both dead.  I don't know if that's coincidental or not, but I do find it interesting that he singled them out and that they're now both dead.

It would have to be coincidental that BOTH died - unless you think the scum can talk to the 2nd anti-Town party.

 

 

I would agree that it has to be coincidental that they both died.  What I'm getting at is the fact that Peace picked them out specifically in his post because they voted Cloud with no reason at the time and cast it as a distancing maneuver.  Suddenly, they're dead.  I meant it more along the lines of is it coincidental that Peace mentioned them both in his post, calling them out for unexplained votes on Cloud and now they're dead?  Or is that the exact reason that they ended up dead?

[hazelkrs1]

Okay so I have a feeling I'm going to throw a few wrenches into some cogs, could end up getting myself lynched but meh.

 

Alright so first of all, it wasn't a SK who killed Ishy. It was the town Vig, who I happen to be. I found his post condemning me to be full of all kinds of mock outrage. Sucks that I made such a poor choice, since Jailkeeper is such a powerful role.

 

Anyways, this leads to my theory. I was going to hold onto it longer, but here goes. I already mentioned the OP's where Wombat dies in T1, alignment not quite clear (mebbe town? Says multiclass... /shrug), Darthe dies in T3, as mafia, and both die in T2 as apparently third party. But I also noticed another type of strange connection, something that I needed to verify with Csarlami's flips, which was another reason I pushed them. I am VT in both T1 and T3, but I am a Vig in T2. He turned out to be VT in T1 and T3, but was a BPV in this thread. Leelou flipped vanilla, so this isn't a kitchen sink game, but the fact is that out of the four roles that I know of, only one turned out to be vanilla. I think this is significant. Could be coincidence, but I don't feel it likely.

 

Overall tho, what I've said isn't really that impactful, but I do think there's more. The mods alignment flips in their death scenes in the OP tells me something else might be slightly unusual about this thread. Maybe it's that there is Cult in T1, Mafia in T3, and Cult AND Mafia in T2 (or Cultafia). This could partially explain why there are seemingly more roled townies in this thread.

 

So. Can anyone corroborate/disprove my theory?

 

As for today's lynch, this theory doesn't have a huge impact on who I would actually want to lynch, but here's the next thing. I too, found Cloud to be fairly scummy, and in fact still do. But Leelou's death gives me pause. She isn't a hugely vocal player, so I kind of doubt she would have been killed so as to silence her. She also was active enough to get her reads out, so she pretty obviously wasn't killed as an inactive townie that wouldn't give town much info. I didn't personally see any PR type hints, but I don't usually look out for that kind of thing.

 

This leads me to believe that she may have been killed as part of a frame job. The relatively quick train on Cloud does seem to support this somewhat.

 

As for the people on the train that I am immediately suspicious of, the only one that stands out right now is Razen. I am def not used to seeing cases that big from him, pretty much ever.

 

Before I place my vote however, I want to go back and check other members on the train, and see if I can dig up more on any of them or on Razen. That will have to wait until after audit however. Bbl

[hazelkrs1]

Forgot to mention, Razen bringing up the fact that both Leelou and Ishy dying as possible support of his case on Cloud was another thing that pinged to me.

 

In fact, I can always change this if my reread changes my mind, but for now - Vote Razen.

[dapianoplay3r]

You shot N1?!

Really

 

If you are telling the truth i see your point on the cloud lynch. However im not sure about your xlaim and ive thought he was magia this tgread since D1

For now mu vote stays

[hazelkrs1]

I've been trying to play he vig role differently lately. I always used to holster N1, now I value flips a bit more so I'm a bit more reckless you could say hehe

[dapianoplay3r]

Thats just what we needed. Emo despo to get a gun

this game will one day be used to help tighten gun laws

[Pralaya]

I have a different take on this case.

 

It could be that Leelou was hunted in the night because she was one of the first to be on Cloud. However, she was not the most vocal. One of the earliest quote was

 

 

 

Vote Yates
 
For self voting. Ugh.

  

Vote Csarmi
 
Let's just run him up and see what comes out of it.

Vote Csarmi
 
He must be scum in at least one of them or he wouldn't use the same strategy three times, heh.

Leelou I was wrong
This is where cloud is mafia. Csarmi and cloud are both mafia in this thread IMO
Bag 'em and tag 'em

(For kinda evidence. Look at the clod votes. This is the only thread he attempts to vote elsewhere and he is trying to be as nonchalant as possible in this thread)

vote salami

Also isnt it amazing that cloud went from thread to thread at the same time, making sure to read them all equally rather than concentrating on a specific thread at a time. Trying to have a nice even meta
Wait...
Didnt he accuse Csarmi of that and dub him mafia over it? I think he did lol

 

 

After that Dap has been most vocal against Cloud even while the Csarmi bandwagon was going on. 

For example,

 

This is game 2 right?
Cloud has been pretty scummy in this thread. He is one of my top pics

I even quoted him and explaind in my first post. How do you not see clouds scummy?

 

 

If Cloud was mafia, wouldn't the first person to target be Dap? 

And, guess who was one of the first on the Cloud train on Day 2?

 

 

Ishy and Leelou both play on JN as well though

But I like the idea of a cloud train
vote cloud

 

 

 

 

Me?

I've been saying for ages that I thought cloud was mafia on this thread
(This is T2 right?)

 

 

I would still give a benefit of doubt to Dap since both him and Leelou were on to Cloud at the beginning and they chose Leelou over Dap to kill.

 

Which brings to two possibilities,

 

1. Cloud is mafia: Dap was right all along

2. Cloud is not mafia: In this case, the first target on Day 3 would be Dap

 

I would, for now, go with my intuition that I had presented long back

 

 

 

I think dap and Leelou have a valid point. Even a newbie like me can see that Yates self-vote was a joke and was just the first day fun. Converting that to a serious post and voting based on it does look scummy to me.

 

vote Cloud

[hazelkrs1]

Thats just what we needed. Emo despo to get a gun

this game will one day be used to help tighten gun laws

 

Oh you're soooo getting shot tonight

 

I have a different take on this case.

 

It could be that Leelou was hunted in the night because she was one of the first to be on Cloud. However, she was not the most vocal. One of the earliest quote was

 

 

 

Vote Yates

 

For self voting. Ugh.

  

Vote Csarmi

 

Let's just run him up and see what comes out of it.

Vote Csarmi

 

He must be scum in at least one of them or he wouldn't use the same strategy three times, heh.

Leelou I was wrong

This is where cloud is mafia. Csarmi and cloud are both mafia in this thread IMO

Bag 'em and tag 'em

 

(For kinda evidence. Look at the clod votes. This is the only thread he attempts to vote elsewhere and he is trying to be as nonchalant as possible in this thread)

 

vote salami

 

Also isnt it amazing that cloud went from thread to thread at the same time, making sure to read them all equally rather than concentrating on a specific thread at a time. Trying to have a nice even meta

Wait...

Didnt he accuse Csarmi of that and dub him mafia over it? I think he did lol

 

 

After that Dap has been most vocal against Cloud even while the Csarmi bandwagon was going on. 

For example,

 

This is game 2 right?

Cloud has been pretty scummy in this thread. He is one of my top pics

 

I even quoted him and explaind in my first post. How do you not see clouds scummy?

 

 

If Cloud was mafia, wouldn't the first person to target be Dap? 

And, guess who was one of the first on the Cloud train on Day 2?

 

 

Ishy and Leelou both play on JN as well though

 

But I like the idea of a cloud train

vote cloud

 

 

 

 

Me?

 

I've been saying for ages that I thought cloud was mafia on this thread

(This is T2 right?)

 

 

I would still give a benefit of doubt to Dap since both him and Leelou were on to Cloud at the beginning and they chose Leelou over Dap to kill.

 

Which brings to two possibilities,

 

1. Cloud is mafia: Dap was right all along

2. Cloud is not mafia: In this case, the first target on Day 3 would be Dap

 

I would, for now, go with my intuition that I had presented long back

 

 

 

I think dap and Leelou have a valid point. Even a newbie like me can see that Yates self-vote was a joke and was just the first day fun. Converting that to a serious post and voting based on it does look scummy to me.

 

vote Cloud

 

First you gained some points for pointing out that Dap might be the one pushing the frame job

 

Then you lost points for voting Cloud anyways and setting up tomorrow's lynch.

 

Gonna reread now

[peacesells]

 

 

Quoted because Peace pulls out the early votes from both Leelou and Ishy on Cloud and casts them as early and bogus distancing. What I find interesting is now, Leelou and Ishy are both dead.  I don't know if that's coincidental or not, but I do find it interesting that he singled them out and that they're now both dead.

It would have to be coincidental that BOTH died - unless you think the scum can talk to the 2nd anti-Town party.

 

 

I would agree that it has to be coincidental that they both died.  What I'm getting at is the fact that Peace picked them out specifically in his post because they voted Cloud with no reason at the time and cast it as a distancing maneuver.  Suddenly, they're dead.  I meant it more along the lines of is it coincidental that Peace mentioned them both in his post, calling them out for unexplained votes on Cloud and now they're dead?  Or is that the exact reason that they ended up dead?

 

 

 

To me it looks like a frame up of me.  If Cloud is scum and people believed my opinion of early distancing then his team may hope that Leelou flipping town would show my case invalid and therefore make him look less suspicious.  If he was worried that he would be lynched before Leelou he would want her dead.

 

VOTE CLOUD

[hazelkrs1]

Unggggh too much crap floating in my head.

 

Okay, I'm slightly less suspect of Razen as I was before. He's not off the hook however, so lemme first point out what looks fishy to me about him:

 

 

Vote: Cloud.

 

 

Unvote, vote: Csarmi.

 

 

Vote: Csarmi.

 

 

Vote: Csarmi.

 

Okay so those are his votes from all three threads (not counting his recent one on Cloud).

 

Here's the VC's from all 3 days (ty Yates)

 

 

For reference...

T1 - VT:

 

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

Salami (12/12): Leelou, Cloud, Nol, Yates, Verb, Razen, Dap, Krak, Des, Peace, Tina, Tiink

Verb (1/12): Crusher

Chuckles (1/12): Salami

Cloud (1/12): Mr. Ree


Not Voting (8/23): Chuckles, Mish, Hally, Lenlo, Pral, Serra, BG, Ishy

 

T2 - BPV:

 

Official Vote Count FINAL VC: 

Yates (1/12): Krak
Cloud (1/12): Ishy
Salami (12/12): Nol, Cloud, Yates, Verb, Leelou, Chuckles, Razen, Dap, Laya, Serra, BG, Des
Dap (1/12): Crush
BG (1/12): Salami

Not Voting (7/23): 
Mishh, Hally, Lenlo, Peace, Tiink, Tina, Ree, Pral

SCENE INCOMING

 

T3 - VT:

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT:

Salami (12/12): Nol, Yates, Verb, Leelou, Razen, Cloud, Peace, Dap, Des, Serra, Tina, Lenlo
Hally (1/12): Krak
Yates (1/12): Crush
Leelou (1/12): Ree
Chuckles (2/12): Tiink, Salami

Not Voting (7/23): 
Chuckles, Mish, Hally, Ishy, Tina, Laya, BG, Pral

 

 

 

Serra - votes Salami 2 and 3 but not 1
Peace - votes Salami 1 and 3 but not 2
Tina - votes Salami 1 and 3 but not 2

Cloud, Dap, Des, Leelou, Nol, Razen, Verb, Yates - voted all 3

Hally, Mish, and Pral DID NOT VOTE AT ALL
 

Cloud, Dap, Des, Leelou, Nol, Razen, Verb <- More than one of these guys is scum in at least 1 thread [i know - big help].  My guess is Cloud in T2 for one.

 

 

Ok so as far as VC analysis goes, at least in respect to what I'm looking at here, is that there were a group of people who all initially formed the meta-wagon on Csarlami. Nolder, Leelou, Verbal, Yates, Razen and Cloud (note: Peace voted Csarlami in T1 and T3, but not T2, and he has a part to play in this as well).

 

Leelou and Verbal both play regularly on JN, which has a lot more speedlynches and quick wagons, so nothing really sticks out about their votes. Gonna leave Cloud alone for now, I'll get to him later. Yates seems kinda like he was of the same mind as me, that since the metalynch was already started, it would be a good idea to lynch him in all 3, so for now I don't find his votes odd either.

 

Remembering Tina's point from T1 though, even tho a big part of the reason that Csarlami caught some heat was that he could have been masking his meta, those pushing the meta-lynch could also be doing the same, masking THEIR meta by voting him in all 3 threads. I know this could apply for me as well, but being that I know I'm town I'm not really worried about addressing this as far as my own personal case goes. If yall wanna look further into me, by all means go ahead. Anyhoo, Nolder was a big pusher of the idea across all three threads. Just because he was prob the biggest advocate tho doesn't mean that he could also use that opportunity to mask his own meta. And I found his responses to some other's questions in this thread to be a little sketchy.

 

But aside from Nolder, Razen also stands out somewhat in this respect. Absolutely none of his votes contain any kind of reasoning or anything, they're as bandwagony as it gets. Also, look at the post counts in all three threads. Razen has 8 posts in T2, 2 posts in T1, and 3 posts in T3. Lol as I'm typing this I'm reaffirming my own earlier suspicions on him. So yeah, Razen could be trying to mask his meta in all 3 the easy way, by bandwagoning every Csarlami lynch and posting as little as possible in each (except perhaps for the one in which he's trying to pull off the frame job hmmmmm...).

 

Now. I don't have any particular reason to trust Razen, HOWEVER. I reread his recent case on Cloud, and it did remind of Peace's quote wall (Serra also pointed this out as well, but was more vague than Razen). Basically, the dude made a good case. I would quote it, but it's a page back. Basically, on my reread, Cloud once again looks scummy as hell.

 

His early vote on Yates has already been mentioned multiple times, plus there's this:

 

 

 

 

Unvote, Vote: Csarmi

 

Jokes aside, this is actually a really good idea.

 

HERE WE GO, LYNCH SALAMI, HERE WE GO!!!!!

 

 

Sorry, I couldn't help it.

 

 

woohoo...

 

unvote, vote salami

 

 

Still watching cloud though...

 

 

 

NO BRAKES!

 

 

 

Am I doing it right? :P

 

The second post came right after the first. No mention of Leelou's mention of him, no vote even tho he makes a cheerleading type comment.

 

Also didn't like this (quoted it as well in my catchup on this thread)

 

 

I don't think that a scum team would bus their teammate this early. It would be a big sacrifice and I think they will just try to break it down instead.

 

Very wifomy statement indeed.

 

Most important however, is Peace's role in all this. I already mentioned the quote wall (Razen just quoted it too, so to see it again just go back a page). But even more than just that example, Peace makes multiple attempts to link Cloud and Leelou

 

 

 

 

 

This is game 2 right?
Cloud has been pretty scummy in this thread. He is one of my top pics

I even quoted him and explaind in my first post. How do you not see clouds scummy?

 

A couple of things wrong with your statements here.  First...All those quotes I made came long before your first post in this thread.

 

Second...If Leelou is distancing from Cloud that makes him scum right?

 

 

He was coming off scummy in this thread, he deserved a vote. I think he's the best bet for scum in this thread. 

 

 

He had made 1 post when you voted him.  He voted Yates for self voting.  Not buying your explanation. 

 

 

Bolded is more linking of the two. Peace had other instance I believe where he did this, didn't quote them all. As for the last part quoted, he's basically defending Cloud there. He's saying Cloud's vote on Yates wasn't worthy of a vote, when several people disagreed. In fact, if not for the meta-lynch developing so quickly, there was a good chance of a Cloud countertrain developing here at first.

[hazelkrs1]

TL;DR: So yeah, Peace is actually tied to Cloud pretty tremendously. This makes Cloud a perfect info lynch for this thread. He flips scum, and that makes Peace look worse. He flips town, and then it looks a lot more like either Dap or Razen (or both, which could end up easily being the case) were trying to frame him and killed Leelou to make it happen.

 

Unvote, Vote Cloud

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

 

Quoted because Peace pulls out the early votes from both Leelou and Ishy on Cloud and casts them as early and bogus distancing. What I find interesting is now, Leelou and Ishy are both dead.  I don't know if that's coincidental or not, but I do find it interesting that he singled them out and that they're now both dead.

It would have to be coincidental that BOTH died - unless you think the scum can talk to the 2nd anti-Town party.

 

 

I would agree that it has to be coincidental that they both died.  What I'm getting at is the fact that Peace picked them out specifically in his post because they voted Cloud with no reason at the time and cast it as a distancing maneuver.  Suddenly, they're dead.  I meant it more along the lines of is it coincidental that Peace mentioned them both in his post, calling them out for unexplained votes on Cloud and now they're dead?  Or is that the exact reason that they ended up dead?

 

 

 

To me it looks like a frame up of me.  If Cloud is scum and people believed my opinion of early distancing then his team may hope that Leelou flipping town would show my case invalid and therefore make him look less suspicious.  If he was worried that he would be lynched before Leelou he would want her dead.

 

VOTE CLOUD

 

 

Nope, nope, nope. You're inexorably tied to Cloud now Bro. You're the one who linked yourself to him, and you were the only one reaching so much as to say that Leelou and Cloud could be a scum team. Don't think anyone else thought that really.

 

Imo, you saw Cloud getting some early heat, so you wanted to try your hardest to establish some early links between him and other players. You linked Leelou AND Ishy to him, and both of those flipped town. You trying to build those links on shaky ground (you used the word "distancing" a GOOOOOD bit) has condemned yourself.

 

As for why you killed Leelou, I'm thinking that instead of a frame job, you figured BECAUSE she wasn't that vocal, that maybe people might forget that she was one of the early pushers on Cloud, and that her flipping town might additionally help make Cloud look slightly less scummy because of your attempt at linking.

[peacesells]

Desp..you need to re-read that whole interaction cause you've interpreted it wrong.  My early thoughts were Leelou and Cloud were scum and Leelou's play came across as distancing from a scum partner. 

[peacesells]

Well..let's lynch Cloud and see how it turns out.