Economic Stagnation?

[jsbrads]

So blaming it on the Dark One is perfectly fine, if a bit of a cop-out.

 

i have been trying to lead everyone to this conclusion or make a good arguement, but I like your blunt statement tho.

 

Ruthan Gudd: the whole arguement preseposes a better than 1700s birthrate for the majority of the NE (last thousand years) compared to recent earth history where birthrates began to pick up in the last few centuries

[Kahsm]

I think BenevolentCow's point was missed.

 

There can't be an "Our World" because we have basically traced our timeline back to seconds before the start of... well everything. Right up to the start of everything if they confirm the higgs, as they probably will. So if we know how energy particles have mass and how that created the planets yadda yadda <insert hawking's brief history of time> then how can there be other ages? They don't appear to be billions of years long in the book... and it seems weird to thing that one breaking rearranged the face of the planet, and another started with a big bang and made a whole new universe? odd.

 

Unless of course our universe is 1, and it always starts with a bang (har har). But there are supposed to be no beginnings or endings and that would clearly be both. Also, there's no way the stories could survive that. People, or at least a good portion of our stuff, need to live on or the whole basis of out stories being myths of a past turning can't happen.

 

Basically, as BenevolentCow I think was suggesting, you have to take our modern-ish world as if it were the "age" and then forget everything else we know about our past from hard sciences. Instead, humans have lived, unchanged for countless turnings of the wheel, endlessly repeating different paths of "progress" as the "universe" keeps kicking us back to near-zero once we raise so high.

 

Anyway, since we have to ignore so much real science to fit in the WOT mythos, then using science to prove or disprove anything else within that tweaked "our world" is pointless, cause who knows what else is changed in that fantasy version of our world.

[Vardar]

There are plenty of examples of farming communities hundreds of years old in poor conditions that never expanded. I was always under the impression that the two rivers wasn't particularly fertile, just that the people were too stubborn to leave it.

 

City collapse outside of those that failed after the hundred years war isn't in the text, and the ones that failed then can be explained easily by standard empire collapse economics. Technological stagnation over a thousand years is longer than our history suggests, but not really longer than is plausible, if merchant classes don't have a high enough income they cannot challenge the aristocracy and aristocracy are notoriously good at keeping the statis quo.

 

You have to remember that in our world, there are lots of places that are taboo to go, (this part is probably controversial on an international board and I don't mean to offend anyone) even when there is no evidence of any supernatural activity. There is proof in Randland of places that will actually kill you with magic if you step foot in them, so the Sand Hills being bad luck isn't just a local superstition, but for all intents and purposes might actually make anything you do for the rest of your life fail, with actual evidence that there are places where this is true.

 

Some guy going to that mountain over there might be unlucky and start showing signs of epilepsy in our world, thus starting a belief that it is haunted, in Randland that guy and everyone else who goes there will 100% of the time be affected in the same way. The amount of places that you can't go would be exponentially higher there just from having Shadar Logoth in the world, not to mention any random ter'angreal that make spooky sounds, chills or images.

 

It is a perfectly valid belief in a world like that that if a farm failed, it is haunted. If a land failed it is under the Dark One's gaze. I am surprised that Myrdraal and Trollocs are travelers tales instead of every bandit pretending to be them myself, but then darkfriendedness seems to be reliant on there being non darkfriends around to influence. Random witch in the woods doesn't really exist in WoT like it does/did in our world.

 

(note: I am a naturalist, I don't mean to offend anyone with my assumptions that ghosts and magic and such don't really exist, but I often find my views are based on my beliefs as everyone elses are and in other countries being a naturalistic atheist is pretty much worse than killing babies according to media so I try not to preach about it, but in this case it is central to my arguments so cannot be avoided)

 

Well, the Two Rivers is fertile enough to have world famous tabac. I mean, that’s HUGE. Even the SeaFolk know about it right? That alone should be enough for the Two River’s to have EXPLODED. And their wool was decently well known right? Actually I’m not sure why Andor’s rules wouldn’t be taking huge advantage of that. They do for the Mines in the MoM, wonder why they ignore the world’s best tabac?

[Mr Ares]

Well, the Two Rivers is fertile enough to have world famous tabac. I mean, that’s HUGE. Even the SeaFolk know about it right? That alone should be enough for the Two River’s to have EXPLODED. And their wool was decently well known right? Actually I’m not sure why Andor’s rules wouldn’t be taking huge advantage of that. They do for the Mines in the MoM, wonder why they ignore the world’s best tabac?

Because they couldn't collect from both and the mines were worth more. Also, we know from the first book that the TR is not an easy place to live - those who aren't stubborn get out. They need to be stubborn to make a living there. Their tabac may be world famous, but it's still not easy to grow.

[Vardar]

Well, the Two Rivers is fertile enough to have world famous tabac. I mean, that’s HUGE. Even the SeaFolk know about it right? That alone should be enough for the Two River’s to have EXPLODED. And their wool was decently well known right? Actually I’m not sure why Andor’s rules wouldn’t be taking huge advantage of that. They do for the Mines in the MoM, wonder why they ignore the world’s best tabac?

Because they couldn't collect from both and the mines were worth more. Also, we know from the first book that the TR is not an easy place to live - those who aren't stubborn get out. They need to be stubborn to make a living there. Their tabac may be world famous, but it's still not easy to grow.

 

Are there examples of people leaving given? I seem to recall the boys thinking no one left the Two Rivers too often. Although from AS comments we know some people are interbreeding at least at the Taren because they have "weaker blood" up there.

[TristanWebb]

Well, let me put it like this. The same physics that describes how the steam engine works also tells us how much the temperature of the planet's surface would heat up by moving the continents around to the extent they've been re-arranged. If the physics of the latter is wrong, then the physics of the former would have to be wrong too, which means that steam engines wouldn't work, or at least, they wouldn't work the way we expect them to. And that's just the physical inconsistency most easily seen. If Randland has steam engines, then their thermodynamics works pretty much the same as our thermodynamics, which means that from a physical energy/work/heat perspective, the Breaking should not have been survivable by any life whatsoever. But at the end of the day, you're right, it's fiction. It involves the willing suspension of disbelief. One thing you're wrong about though is that the fiction itself stipulates that our world is Randland in an earlier Age. The point of such a stipulation is not just to create a sense of familiarity, but a sense of continuity. Jordan could have chosen to have his world be some sort of parallel universe or fantasy world not necessarily connected to or a part of our world at all and still maintained familiarity with the setting. The continuity stipulated between our world and the Third Age is ultimately the source of the physical/economic/sociological/biological inconsistencies people notice, because it implies that the physical laws that govern our world are continuous with the physical laws that govern Randland.

The same mechanics that govern reproduction also govern evolution, but in the WoT there is none. If Randland has non clone children then evolution should be happening, but it isn't. The same mechanics that describe how light propagates also governs the nuclear fusion that powers the sun, but the sun in Randland hasn't vanished after infinite years. Entropy isn't increasing in Randland, the universe isn't expanding, the moon isn't tidally locked. Anything that has a long timescale is wrong according to WoT, though I believe RJ was some denomination of Christian so it could just be a carry over from young earth creationism.

 

Physics is how -our- universe works, not how everything has to work in all possible universes. There is really nothing to say that a steam engine couldn't function in a way that is identical in every way to how it works on a macro scale but have subtle differences at the atomic or quantum scale that doesn't equal what happens in the real world. If you take the WoT as gospel, then you are positing a time, possibly marking the end of our age, that we find out that a huge section of science is incorrect, especially thermodynamics. At that point, arguing anything based on currently held scientific beliefs is unfounded, aside from directly observable events such as a a steam engine rolling down the road. Even gravity must work differently, or as I mentioned before the moon would be tidally locked by now.

 

A lot of this can be overcome by saying the Source injects energy into the system, but where the energy is injected the becomes the issue and that can be used to cover any problems concerning continuity of life, the Source simply drew out the excess energy caused by the breaking to inject into the sun to keep it alight for instance.

 

Kael got what I was trying to say, that it is a facsimile of our world ported directly into one operating under subtly different physics. Events are the same but the underlying principles are different. Along with the disheartening fact that every physicist in the world is wrong, most of the historians, biologists and theologians as well

Edited July 12, 2012 by BenevolentCow

[XoMeltdownoX]

Dr. Kael Johnson is right about Benevelent Johnson being right. And I'm not giving up my ice cream parlour, that I built with...oops, wrong venue.

 

Seriously guys. It is all fiction. The "it is our world in a different age" tag only works if this a parallel universe similar to ours (like many works of fiction). Real world science does not groove with the philosophy of circular time. The whole series is based on the myths of our world and how the perception of the myths change through time. Makes for a good story, but not good science.

 

(can anybody name the film that I reference in my first line?)

[shortkut]

Universe expands from big bang until it collapses back in on itself and a new big bang happens. Circular time. Also, we don't know which age had dinosaurs. Maybe what we consider the 6th or 7th age is really one of the first ages. If i recall correctly they talk briefly about fossils in museums back in the AoL. It takes time to make fossils meaning they are from long before the AoL.

[shortkut]

Die hard. agent johnson and special agent johnson

[XoMeltdownoX]

Die hard. agent johnson and special agent johnson

Sorry no. Please play again. It is from one of the funniest films of all time.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Xo Meltdown oX

[Thrasymachus]

Well, Benevolent, that was actually pretty much exactly my point. The creator of the stories and certain hints within the stories pretty much tell us straight out that Randland is our world in some far-flung future. But we know that can't be the case, because that would completely contradict a whole slew of things we already know to such precision as to be absurd. In other words, we can't even transpose basic science to tell us things about Randland that the stories themselves or Jordan/Sanderson have elided. They didn't tell us how many people survived the Breaking, but we can't use science to make a guess because science would tell us that nobody survives. And this is even more true when it comes to complex and less well-founded sciences like economics or social demographics. We have to suspend our disbelief, not just about the presence and function of the One Power, but about the basic functionality of everything from steam engines to population and economic dynamics.

 

And just to quibble a bit. Our moon is already tidally locked, and has been for some time. That's why we always only see one face of it.

[TristanWebb]

I knew that, was just listening to an astronomy podcast before posting that was talking about when the moon would move far enough away that it would end up in a geosynchronous orbit and got my terms confused.

[Thrasymachus]

The moon's well beyond a geosynchronous orbit. All geosynchronous orbits around the Earth have a semi-major axis of about 26 thousand miles. The semi-major axis of the Moon is almost 240 thousand miles. That astronomy podcast must have been talking about when the Earth and the moon will have achieved spin-orbit resonance, when both the Moon and the Earth will always present the same face to each other. I suppose that's a sort of combination of geo-synch and tidal lock, but it's not stable. That should occur in about 55 billion years. Some time after that, the Moon will stop orbiting Earth entirely, and migrate to either one of our lagrange points, or elsewhere in the solar system, and good luck figuring out what'll happen after that. Of course, all of that's about 50 billion years or so longer than the Earth-Moon system has anyway, since the sun should blow up into a red-giant and engulf us way before we get to that stage.

 

Actually, I have a sort of a sci-fi idea about how our cosmology/physics and Randland cosmology/physics, including the supposition that our age is the 1st Age, could all still be true. But it's outlandish, and it still doesn't help much in importing the methods and traditional theories of science to explain happenings in Randland.

[TristanWebb]

Well, that's what I get for half listening to things while driving I guess :P Thanks for clearing that up.

[Vardar]

Umm. Would physics still apply in a world where magic was an everyday course?

 

I mean, I understand the whole this is our world, and how things work here, but once a force is discovered that defys the laws of physics, what then?

[TristanWebb]

As long as the magic is consistent, you can apply the scientific method to it and figure out how it works.

 

Science has a long history of new paradigms, all it really means is that the rules that applied before the discovery have to be modified to account for it.

 

Of course, if you have a magic model that isn't consistent, an omnipotent god who applies magic when he feels like it for instance, then that is outside science as reproducibility is key to the whole system.

[Vardar]

As long as the magic is consistent, you can apply the scientific method to it and figure out how it works.

 

Science has a long history of new paradigms, all it really means is that the rules that applied before the discovery have to be modified to account for it.

 

Of course, if you have a magic model that isn't consistent, an omnipotent god who applies magic when he feels like it for instance, then that is outside science as reproducibility is key to the whole system.

I meant physics as we know it. I mean yea you can apply rules to magic, but they would constantly be changing as people developed skill with the magic, much moreso that we have with science today.

[Agitel]

As long as the magic is consistent, you can apply the scientific method to it and figure out how it works.

 

Science has a long history of new paradigms, all it really means is that the rules that applied before the discovery have to be modified to account for it.

 

Of course, if you have a magic model that isn't consistent, an omnipotent god who applies magic when he feels like it for instance, then that is outside science as reproducibility is key to the whole system.

I meant physics as we know it. I mean yea you can apply rules to magic, but they would constantly be changing as people developed skill with the magic, much moreso that we have with science today.

 

Well, I don't know if Jordan accounted for the Higgs Field, but I'm pretty sure the laws of physics do apply on most levels. Universal and world history may defy science a little, though, and there's probably a source of energy putting energy into the system so the universe doesn't end up energy-less, but Newton's Laws, Einstein's theories of general and special relativity, and even a bit of quantum mechanics and thermodynamics (on a more limited, non-universal level) certainly apply.

[TristanWebb]

Well, in that case it depends. A lot of magic isn't internally consistent, in that kind of world you can't really create a set of sciences that reflect it because the spells are arbitrary. In WoT it is fairly consistent, so you could apply the scientific method to creating new weaves based on what currently known weaves do, but it carries a high cost of failure.

 

Physics as we know it doesn't really survive any major new discovery, all sciences are constantly evolving with every new thing we learn. The point where you find you can throw specific herbs in a pot in a specific order while saying specific words sometimes produces remarkable results, sometimes produces a nice stew and sometimes nothing happens with no consistency is when the scientific method breaks.

 

The method is the important thing rather than the results, if it turned out that physics only works because tiny unborn puppies move the electrons around it doesn't really matter as long as they move the electrons around consistently. That way you can make a hypothesis and test it to see if it conforms to reality.

 

So to answer your question: physics as we know it would survive discovery of magic as long as the magic obeys consistent rules and didn't change how the universe works when it is discovered.

 

A lot of science is saying 'there isn't really anything saying this can't happen, just that it doesn't'.

[Vardar]

Well, in that case it depends. A lot of magic isn't internally consistent, in that kind of world you can't really create a set of sciences that reflect it because the spells are arbitrary. In WoT it is fairly consistent, so you could apply the scientific method to creating new weaves based on what currently known weaves do, but it carries a high cost of failure.

 

Physics as we know it doesn't really survive any major new discovery, all sciences are constantly evolving with every new thing we learn. The point where you find you can throw specific herbs in a pot in a specific order while saying specific words sometimes produces remarkable results, sometimes produces a nice stew and sometimes nothing happens with no consistency is when the scientific method breaks.

 

The method is the important thing rather than the results, if it turned out that physics only works because tiny unborn puppies move the electrons around it doesn't really matter as long as they move the electrons around consistently. That way you can make a hypothesis and test it to see if it conforms to reality.

 

So to answer your question: physics as we know it would survive discovery of magic as long as the magic obeys consistent rules and didn't change how the universe works when it is discovered.

 

A lot of science is saying 'there isn't really anything saying this can't happen, just that it doesn't'.

 

Lol @ tiny little puppies.

 

I just think flying, holes in space/time etc would kill physics. Especially energy consumption, and creating the holes in space/time. I mean, why would it take more energy to make the hole depending on where it was (RJ's comment about travelling to another planet). Would defy the implied science of their magic. The idea that lifting something with air is defined by weight is fine, but you can't lift yourself, why not? See, I think it would get weird.

[Maleshub]

WoT world is not 100% compatible with medieval times in our world. But there are certain strands, issues, disciplines, areas, etc. that are very similar to our world. These include the human race populating Randland, the warfare, the farming, the transportation system, the economics, the technology, and other similar issues.

 

In our world, it requires each couple to have 2.2 children for society to continue to grow numerically. Can we apply this stat to Randland? Or does it take 4.0 offspring per couple for society to grow?

 

On Rand's\Mat's flight to Caemlyn from Whitebridge they entered a number of farms. Most of them seem to have traditional farming families. I remember one farm where the farmer said that his 4 healthy boys will come soon. And the Grinwell household had many children. And in Perrin's march through the Two Rivers during the Trolloc attacks, we find that households have many children.

 

When RJ and the experts say that Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking, then that is the case. No arguing against it. But that doesn't fit with the principles of demographics of a similar world. Maybe Randland is hit with a "Great Plague" every few generations. The one that happened in our medieval world killed one-third of Europe's population!

[Vardar]

WoT world is not 100% compatible with medieval times in our world. But there are certain strands, issues, disciplines, areas, etc. that are very similar to our world. These include the human race populating Randland, the warfare, the farming, the transportation system, the economics, the technology, and other similar issues.

 

In our world, it requires each couple to have 2.2 children for society to continue to grow numerically. Can we apply this stat to Randland? Or does it take 4.0 offspring per couple for society to grow?

 

On Rand's\Mat's flight to Caemlyn from Whitebridge they entered a number of farms. Most of them seem to have traditional farming families. I remember one farm where the farmer said that his 4 healthy boys will come soon. And the Grinwell household had many children. And in Perrin's march through the Two Rivers during the Trolloc attacks, we find that households have many children.

 

When RJ and the experts say that Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking, then that is the case. No arguing against it. But that doesn't fit with the principles of demographics of a similar world. Maybe Randland is hit with a "Great Plague" every few generations. The one that happened in our medieval world killed one-third of Europe's population!

 

Well think about, it, for all those families we see with multiple children, we see some with none, or 1 or no survivors left. Look at Ny, she was an only child right? As was "Rand." Sure, Perrin and Mat were both one of many, as well as Eggy, although I always found that odd that her siblings were the only ones never really mentioned, besides the fact that her mother raised some. Did they leave Two Rivers?But there were other families in the Two Rivers with none, Aunts and Uncles and such. We don't know enough to really go too in depth with it.

[Maleshub]

WoT world is not 100% compatible with medieval times in our world. But there are certain strands, issues, disciplines, areas, etc. that are very similar to our world. These include the human race populating Randland, the warfare, the farming, the transportation system, the economics, the technology, and other similar issues.

 

In our world, it requires each couple to have 2.2 children for society to continue to grow numerically. Can we apply this stat to Randland? Or does it take 4.0 offspring per couple for society to grow?

 

On Rand's\Mat's flight to Caemlyn from Whitebridge they entered a number of farms. Most of them seem to have traditional farming families. I remember one farm where the farmer said that his 4 healthy boys will come soon. And the Grinwell household had many children. And in Perrin's march through the Two Rivers during the Trolloc attacks, we find that households have many children.

 

When RJ and the experts say that Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking, then that is the case. No arguing against it. But that doesn't fit with the principles of demographics of a similar world. Maybe Randland is hit with a "Great Plague" every few generations. The one that happened in our medieval world killed one-third of Europe's population!

 

Well think about, it, for all those families we see with multiple children, we see some with none, or 1 or no survivors left. Look at Ny, she was an only child right? As was "Rand." Sure, Perrin and Mat were both one of many, as well as Eggy, although I always found that odd that her siblings were the only ones never really mentioned, besides the fact that her mother raised some. Did they leave Two Rivers?But there were other families in the Two Rivers with none, Aunts and Uncles and such. We don't know enough to really go too in depth with it.

 

I think that if we go back; we'll find that most farming communities had a majority of households that had multiple children. In any case, taking the discussion down that route will have me running around in circles. And I don't think I can take notice of household statistics in my current reread! The facts are there: Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking.

[Mr Ares]

Well, the Two Rivers is fertile enough to have world famous tabac. I mean, that’s HUGE. Even the SeaFolk know about it right? That alone should be enough for the Two River’s to have EXPLODED. And their wool was decently well known right? Actually I’m not sure why Andor’s rules wouldn’t be taking huge advantage of that. They do for the Mines in the MoM, wonder why they ignore the world’s best tabac?

Because they couldn't collect from both and the mines were worth more. Also, we know from the first book that the TR is not an easy place to live - those who aren't stubborn get out. They need to be stubborn to make a living there. Their tabac may be world famous, but it's still not easy to grow.

Are there examples of people leaving given?

No, it is only stated that those who aren't stubborn enough to deal with wolves eating their sheep, and storms wrecking their crops, and all the other little disasters, move away.

 

I just think flying, holes in space/time etc would kill physics. Especially energy consumption, and creating the holes in space/time. I mean, why would it take more energy to make the hole depending on where it was (RJ's comment about travelling to another planet). Would defy the implied science of their magic. The idea that lifting something with air is defined by weight is fine, but you can't lift yourself, why not? See, I think it would get weird.

You can't lift yourself with the OP for the exact same reason you can't lift yourself without. An absence of skyhooks. Attempting to pull yourself up by your bootstraps is as impossible with the OP as it is without. You can suspend yourself off the ground with the OP - we've seen bridges made of it. But gravity doesn't stop working.

[Agitel]

WoT world is not 100% compatible with medieval times in our world. But there are certain strands, issues, disciplines, areas, etc. that are very similar to our world. These include the human race populating Randland, the warfare, the farming, the transportation system, the economics, the technology, and other similar issues.

 

In our world, it requires each couple to have 2.2 children for society to continue to grow numerically. Can we apply this stat to Randland? Or does it take 4.0 offspring per couple for society to grow?

 

On Rand's\Mat's flight to Caemlyn from Whitebridge they entered a number of farms. Most of them seem to have traditional farming families. I remember one farm where the farmer said that his 4 healthy boys will come soon. And the Grinwell household had many children. And in Perrin's march through the Two Rivers during the Trolloc attacks, we find that households have many children.

 

When RJ and the experts say that Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking, then that is the case. No arguing against it. But that doesn't fit with the principles of demographics of a similar world. Maybe Randland is hit with a "Great Plague" every few generations. The one that happened in our medieval world killed one-third of Europe's population!

 

Well think about, it, for all those families we see with multiple children, we see some with none, or 1 or no survivors left. Look at Ny, she was an only child right? As was "Rand." Sure, Perrin and Mat were both one of many, as well as Eggy, although I always found that odd that her siblings were the only ones never really mentioned, besides the fact that her mother raised some. Did they leave Two Rivers?But there were other families in the Two Rivers with none, Aunts and Uncles and such. We don't know enough to really go too in depth with it.

 

I think that if we go back; we'll find that most farming communities had a majority of households that had multiple children. In any case, taking the discussion down that route will have me running around in circles. And I don't think I can take notice of household statistics in my current reread! The facts are there: Randland population has been in decline since the Breaking.

 

I don't think the bolded is entirely accurate, at least not in the way I think you mean it. The Breaking, the Trolloc Wars, and the War of the Hundred Years/Seanchan conquest/Shara invasion all took many lives of those living. But the unnatural downward pressure on population growth seems to have only started within the last millenia of the story, and perhaps even the last few centuries, as the DO's ability to touch the world has increased.