Economic Stagnation?

[Plato]

The Native American collapse was a result of diseases introduced by the very first European explorers. It's actually a decent analog of the devastation caused by the Breaking, in that the cocktail of European and Asian diseases introduced into the Americas is estimated to have killed off more than 90% of the population over the course of about 200 years. By the time Spanish Conquistadors started conquering Mexico and Middle and South America, a large part of the damage of the diseases had been done. The Inca were defeated relatively easily because they'd just lost their Emperor and all his heirs to the Plague, and they were in the midst of a succession crisis. The Aztecs were similarly devastated by the time Cortez showed up. And when the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock, they chose the site because it was the location of an already extant Native American village, one which happened to have been recently abandoned because nearly everybody that lived there had died to European diseases. Squanto, the Indian famous for showing the English how to plant corn with fish and survive the New England winters, was a native of that village who had been kidnapped by Spanish raiders, sold into slavery, escaped, and made his way back home on a Dutch trading ship, and found his home abandoned. He was pretty much the only native survivor of the village the Pilgrims moved into. Luckily for those refugees from the horrors of politically imposed religious tolerance, he was apparently a pretty forgiving individual.

 

Thrasy, Avernite was referring to the Mayan Decline which occurred around the 10th century which scholars are still debating the cause. Even to the Spanish, whole Mayan cities were already abandoned and taken back by the jungles. Some say it was disease, some say social revolution. Of note is that not all Mayan cities were abandoned, some were still thriving when the Spanish arrived.

 

@Avernite on the English/European discussion. Interesting, it's been some years since I've read the book where I got that information from. But what would you say to the English innovation of taxing and leasing land directly to the serfs to get around the barons, and thus opening up the can of worms already mentioned.

Edited June 14, 2012 by Plato

[Thrasymachus]

From what I understand, the earlier Mayan decline was caused by over-farming of their land, perhaps exacerbated by climate change, leading to famine. Even still, I find it unlikely that such an occurrence depleted Mayan populations by more than a third. Famine rarely kills more than that, especially when there's still the opportunity to trade with other peoples not as affected by the catastrophe. Mayans weren't the only dominant civilization in Meso-America, after all.

 

The only Spanish expeditions that were able to arrive ahead of the apocalyptic outbreaks of disease in the Americas were Columbus's. It was his contact with Native Americans that introduced European diseases, and they spread rapidly from there. Even the very next expeditions, and Columbus's own later expeditions, arrived just after or right in the midst of the disease outbreaks. In any event, the earlier Mayan decline was not the apocalyptic crash in population that could serve as the basis for events after the Breaking. That was the vast outbreaks of plague and disease that occurred as a direct result of Columbus's landing.

[jsbrads]

I have heard some mayan cities grew so large, food suppliers couldnt reach the center... (too far to travel)

 

Ingtar describes the losses of populations in the (begining? of) Hunt

whole nations used to exist, that disappeared and the countries that exist are more empty than full, remember the trip from elanyes lands to camlyn, boys travel from four kings, egwene and perrin on caralain grass, etc. These places should be bustling, good soil, even along rivers, recall the girls traveling to salidar and from tar valon to tear

[Durinax]

I have heard some mayan cities grew so large, food suppliers couldnt reach the center... (too far to travel)

 

Ingtar describes the losses of populations in the (begining? of) Hunt

whole nations used to exist, that disappeared and the countries that exist are more empty than full, remember the trip from elanyes lands to camlyn, boys travel from four kings, egwene and perrin on caralain grass, etc. These places should be bustling, good soil, even along rivers, recall the girls traveling to salidar and from tar valon to tear

well most of the routes that the girls traveled are along borders, or unclaimed land where banditry was common.

 

I do not doubt that the 'unclaimed' lands have a lower population than they should, but they are probably amply populated. Just are not a nation

[jsbrads]

I do not doubt that the 'unclaimed' lands have a lower population than they should, but they are probably amply populated. Just are not a nation

 

amply populated... there are places that may have more population off scene, but Elyas tells Perrin and Egwene, that they were walking [few degrees north of Camlyn] and they could walk to dragonmount without seeing a soul, Ingtars travels in the next book they travel past a few small villages where a country used to be, the city that had been there was removed and all the stones gone too. the lists go on...

[Vardar]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

Lots of people in Randand die in Wars. I understand about high birth rates and such, but how many sons go off to war and never return? The women that do have children have a lot, but how many women get married and have children? Maybe a lesser amount get married (Wise women, i.e. healers seem to be mostly single, AS are single) Maybe the key lies there. It is an interesting topic of discussion however and has me thinking. I mean so much of that land is empty, I would have thought some of it would be reclaimed since Hawkwing's time.

[Maleshub]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

[jwood01]

I was watching Nial Ferguson's Civilization documentary on PBS a few weeks ago, and he talked a lot about China's history and how it stagnated after closing itself off from the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if RJ drew some inspiration China's history.

 

Also. the AoL didn't just have a standard of living similar to ours, it was probably much better than ours. Furthermore, rather than relying on innovation, machines (capital), and labor as drivers of economic growth as our world does, they relied also on magic (the OP). It seems they relied upon it such that their machines and innovation all involved the OP. The taint significantly reduced their level of magic, which will cause a serious economic decline. Plus the breaking killed off plenty of Aes Sedai and thus destroyed a large amount of the stock of human capital (e.g., weaves that now are unkown, what most Terangreal do, etc.). The trolloc wars probably destroyed a lot more of the Aes Sedai knowledge that had been handed down, not to mention the knowledge of whole civilizations (e.g., Aridhol, Manethren, etc.).

 

There also do not seem to be the conditions present that produced the enlightenment and the scientific method. I wouldn't want to be caught dead devoting my life to alchemy in Randland. Someone might be convinced that you are a male channeler!

 

There is also a large segment of the population devoted to subverting society and causing trouble (Darkfriends).

 

In my opinion, Randland is not characterized by economic stagantion though. more of a cycle like this:

 

AoL: Peak

War of Shadow: Total war and eventual economic decline

Breaking: Total economic and societal collapse

AB: Economic upswing

Trolloc Wars: Total war and economic collapse (and societal collapse in some areas)

FY: Economic upswing

Unification: Economic upswing

War of the 100 years: Total war and economic collapse

NE: Economic upswing; Millenial economic peak on Winternight in tEotW

 

But we are talking a mainly feudalist society here, with no enlightenment or scientific method, or prodestant reformation (which in Randland IMO would probably be a less dogmatic offshoot of the White Tower).

 

Interesting thread.

[jsbrads]

Ruthan Gudd, you could have said better "NE economic upswing" but I think there is an error in the storyline as NE should be increasing population, innovation, economy, but it isn't there.

The NE is the opposite of what it should be, populations shrinking, no innovation (people should be likely to innovate precisely because the AS stay to themselves (also realistically AS have been able to do little more than heal or fight trollocs in the NE)) shrinking economic interactions (eg nations disappearing/drying up, recession of Andor's borders, etc)

 

Vardarmus: that is the equivelent of saying that western population could not grow because we had nuns, 99.9% of the female population was availible for marriage and the largest war in NE history was the Aiel War (in which, I'm sure many thousands did not return home, but what percentage of the male population was that, in a previous post I estimated it to be less than 5%, not fun, but not enough to account for population failure which has been occuring for the last thousand[?] years. Note: most people in today's day speak of going to war not losing family, in the war.

[Durinax]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

also the multiple wives option gave more flexibility when it comes to sustaining/growing the population

[Mr Ares]

Ruthan Gudd, you could have said better "NE economic upswing" but I think there is an error in the storyline as NE should be increasing population, innovation, economy, but it isn't there.

The NE is the opposite of what it should be, populations shrinking, no innovation (people should be likely to innovate precisely because the AS stay to themselves (also realistically AS have been able to do little more than heal or fight trollocs in the NE)) shrinking economic interactions (eg nations disappearing/drying up, recession of Andor's borders, etc)

It's not an error in the storlyine, it has an explanation. They should have an increasing population, they don't due to Shai'tan's influence on the world.

[Maleshub]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

also the multiple wives option gave more flexibility when it comes to sustaining/growing the population

 

+1

[Vardar]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

 

I've with you on the most difficult to achieve, but where did you get the rarest kind part?

[jsbrads]

Ruthan Gudd, you could have said better "NE economic upswing" but I think there is an error in the storyline as NE should be increasing population, innovation, economy, but it isn't there.

The NE is the opposite of what it should be, populations shrinking, no innovation (people should be likely to innovate precisely because the AS stay to themselves (also realistically AS have been able to do little more than heal or fight trollocs in the NE)) shrinking economic interactions (eg nations disappearing/drying up, recession of Andor's borders, etc)

It's not an error in the storlyine, it has an explanation. They should have an increasing population, they don't due to Shai'tan's influence on the world.

 

Good explaination, just not one example of it... DO's invisible influence? did it even exist before book one, when the seals began to fail. It wasn't DFs, they are incompetent fools. Why would DO only go after middle earth, Aiel population grew during this time period.

Edited June 25, 2012 by jsbrads

[Maleshub]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

 

I've with you on the most difficult to achieve, but where did you get the rarest kind part?

 

I don't remember the exact quote; but I think it was part of explaining ji'e'toh to Moiraine and Egwene in TSR.

[Durinax]

Just wanted to say, to the guys comparing the Aiel and their wars. Remember, War between clans, the greatest honor came from touching not killing right? I bet with all the raids and wars in the Waste, not many people died. Sure they've been fighting each other for hundreds of years, but not killing too often.

 

But that honor is the most difficult to achieve and the rarest kind. So, more people were killed in Aiel fighting than you believe.

 

I've with you on the most difficult to achieve, but where did you get the rarest kind part?

 

I don't remember the exact quote; but I think it was part of explaining ji'e'toh to Moiraine and Egwene in TSR.

I would almost think killing would be the rarest, since there does not seem to be full on wars among the aiel but rather small skirmishes, during which one clan will try to prove superiority by capturing not killing

[TristanWebb]

Doesn't the Aiel perspective on death give you a clue as to how dangerous life is to them? They have an extreme taboo against harming Wise Ones, which wouldn't be needed if the skirmishes where just about capturing. Death in the Waste is extremely common, not just from natural dangers but human ones as well.

[Maleshub]

I would almost think killing would be the rarest, since there does not seem to be full on wars among the aiel but rather small skirmishes, during which one clan will try to prove superiority by capturing not killing

 

Here is the quote:

 

TSR: Beyond the Stone

 

With a nod to Moiraine, Amys began. "I will follow the line of gai'shain simply. In the dance of the spears, the most ji, honor, is earned by touching an armed enemy without killing, or harming in any way."

 

"The most honor because it is so difficult," Seana said, bluish gray eyes crinkling wryly, "and thus so seldom done."

 

"The smallest honor comes from killing," Amys continued." A child or a fool can kill. In between is the taking of a captive. ...."

Edited June 26, 2012 by Theodril

[Mr Ares]

Ruthan Gudd, you could have said better "NE economic upswing" but I think there is an error in the storyline as NE should be increasing population, innovation, economy, but it isn't there.

The NE is the opposite of what it should be, populations shrinking, no innovation (people should be likely to innovate precisely because the AS stay to themselves (also realistically AS have been able to do little more than heal or fight trollocs in the NE)) shrinking economic interactions (eg nations disappearing/drying up, recession of Andor's borders, etc)

It's not an error in the storlyine, it has an explanation. They should have an increasing population, they don't due to Shai'tan's influence on the world.

 

Good explaination, just not one example of it... DO's invisible influence? did it even exist before book one, when the seals began to fail. It wasn't DFs, they are incompetent fools. Why would DO only go after middle earth, Aiel population grew during this time period.

Yes, Shai'tan's touch was felt long before book 1. However, mostly His touch has been subtle - locking the weather in perpetual summer, for example, was a change that would take some time to becoem apparent, but which would have catastrophic consequences. The population decline is even more subtle. It might take generations before its influence is fully realised. The Westlands are where the Dragon will be reborn, where the bulk of the fighting will be done. It makes sense to focus your efforts there rather than the Waste or Seanchan, hence why they both lack this problem.

[jsbrads]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

[Agitel]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

 

No comment on population, but the collapse of nations, political instability, and weakening of governments is due to corruption by the infiltration of darkfriends at all levels of power structure. That much has been made obvious. It may be easier to assume that the less bureaucratic and adherence to ji e toh nature of the Aiel have made them more difficult to corrupt and infiltrate.

 

Are we sure that the population is actually in decline? Or are we just going off of the inability of governments to hold onto territory and maintain themselves?

Edited June 26, 2012 by Agitel

[Vardar]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

 

No comment on population, but the collapse of nations, political instability, and weakening of governments is due to corruption by the infiltration of darkfriends at all levels of power structure. That much has been made obvious. It may be easier to assume that the less bureaucratic and adherence to ji e toh nature of the Aiel have made them more difficult to corrupt and infiltrate.

 

Are we sure that the population is actually in decline? Or are we just going off of the inability of governments to hold onto territory and maintain themselves?

 

 

Just going based on how much the population should have bloomed. Those vast tracts of unclaimed land should have been claimed slowly every generation. Farmers having 9 sons should send some out into nearby empty land, who would then farm the land and have sons and do the same. One would think empires would continue to grow every year, given a lot of empty space. Well, they've got the land, but they're not expanding into it.

[master]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

 

I just classify this thing as part of the language and unusually large army debate. just illogical inconsistancies that are difficult to justify.

[Agitel]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

 

No comment on population, but the collapse of nations, political instability, and weakening of governments is due to corruption by the infiltration of darkfriends at all levels of power structure. That much has been made obvious. It may be easier to assume that the less bureaucratic and adherence to ji e toh nature of the Aiel have made them more difficult to corrupt and infiltrate.

 

Are we sure that the population is actually in decline? Or are we just going off of the inability of governments to hold onto territory and maintain themselves?

 

 

Just going based on how much the population should have bloomed. Those vast tracts of unclaimed land should have been claimed slowly every generation. Farmers having 9 sons should send some out into nearby empty land, who would then farm the land and have sons and do the same. One would think empires would continue to grow every year, given a lot of empty space. Well, they've got the land, but they're not expanding into it.

 

We don't really know for sure how populated the vast territories of the westlands are. Just because there is no organized political body claiming lines on a map doesn't mean an area isn't populated. Without a government, most of these little villages are probably pretty insulated and don't see much growth. I still stand by my statement that the fertility rate might be lower in Randland compared to in the real world for comparable time periods because of the higher status of women and easier access to contraception.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Agitel

[TristanWebb]

Mr. Ares Randland has had 996 years of relative calm, the entire time the population has been decreasing, it isn't subtle and unnoticed, it has been noticed, Ingtar says it out loud.

What is unclear is how it is happening... what mechanism is in effect? why just randland and not the Aiel?

It doesn't make sense.

 

No comment on population, but the collapse of nations, political instability, and weakening of governments is due to corruption by the infiltration of darkfriends at all levels of power structure. That much has been made obvious. It may be easier to assume that the less bureaucratic and adherence to ji e toh nature of the Aiel have made them more difficult to corrupt and infiltrate.

 

Are we sure that the population is actually in decline? Or are we just going off of the inability of governments to hold onto territory and maintain themselves?

 

 

Just going based on how much the population should have bloomed. Those vast tracts of unclaimed land should have been claimed slowly every generation. Farmers having 9 sons should send some out into nearby empty land, who would then farm the land and have sons and do the same. One would think empires would continue to grow every year, given a lot of empty space. Well, they've got the land, but they're not expanding into it.

You assume that it is safe to go out in the wilderness. You need to do more reading in the early books, before every character we see has an army around them. Cairhien was attacked twenty years ago but people still refuse to go back to the area even under the threat of starvation. It could simply be that growth into those areas is stunted due to safety factors.

 

If a farm that isn't in an area cordoned off by unpassable swamps, mountains and rivers is under threat by bandits if they are further than a days ride (which would be around twenty miles) from the nearest constabulary, then the growth for farmland into those areas would be slow unless there was a trade route going through. Even fertile land would be left fallow if the chance of death is high enough, and it is shown even before dragons worn became a problem that roving bands of bandits were common enough. Baerlon, a border town of Andor, arguably the safest country for pesants had a significant wall, do you think it was just for show? Queens guards have to patrol the queens road, do you think the expense would occur if even within the realm there weren't significant dangers on that road?

 

The safety we are used to in the modern world skews the outlook we have. There is ample evidence that founding a farm is not the walk in the park that assumptions here seem to believe. Even without the DO influence turning people bandit, there is enough evidence even in later books that respect for the law is largely optional. Hell, one of the main secondary characters is a poacher and horse thief and that is never mentioned a particularly bad light.