There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[keyholder21]

 

Arez, Member of the Tre Deuces is dead.

 

 

Oookay, so now we have at least three mafia teams.

[Little Miss]

I assumed that 3 was on each team, since there were two teams and that was 6 people. I got 7 by adding to the assumed 3+3 had turned to 3+4 (I took Arez's last comment about there being 4 as there being four members on his team)

 

I however did NOT see the development of a 3rd mafia...

[Darthe]

That explains the spanish from the last kill. What if there are several small teams? Like, six-eight mafia and we have already eliminated a team of two? There simply can't be twelve right? Or, it could be that there are three groups of three. More devious than all of that would be if they were all rival factions in one mafia team and were playing both sides as they saw fit. Just thoughts.

[Ironeyes]

Ha! There are three teams after all. I was right. And we are outnumbered, assuming a mafia of three.

[Ironeyes]

Never mind, we're not. I did my math wrong. Close to it, though.

[Little Miss]

We've killed a lot of scum/anti town people though, we are actually doing pretty damn good...

[keyholder21]

That explains the spanish from the last kill. What if there are several small teams? Like, six-eight mafia and we have already eliminated a team of two? There simply can't be twelve right? Or, it could be that there are three groups of three. More devious than all of that would be if they were all rival factions in one mafia team and were playing both sides as they saw fit. Just thoughts.

 

Considering Nolder was town, Mynd 1.0 was town, you viewed Limi as town and you are supposed Sheriff with a deputy, I don't see how the bolded could be the case.

[Myndrunner]

YATZEEE!!!!! Arez says four mafias, but that would be 12 as Darthe says. Unpossible like Key says, even if only two a piece. I know I am town, but at this point, the mafias should be more worried about each other than us.

[Ironeyes]

Four mafias, at 3 apiece, would be twelve scum (this whole post hinges on that assumption). We started with 24 people. Two townies have died, and four scum. Therefore we have approximately 8 scum left, and 10 townies.

 

The Italian faction has lost 2, leaving one.

The MC has lost 1, leaving two.

The Tre Deuces has lost 1, leaving two.

The Unknown Group has lost none, leaving three.

 

All of this is wrong if there are more than three in a team, but I don't think the Mod would start the game with the town outnumbered. That would be plain mean.

[Blackhoof]

maybe half the game is mafia?

 

i have seen it done, but all the town were on separate mason teams as well.

[Myndrunner]

1. Ishy

2. Nolder Lynched Day 1 -Town Vigilante

3. Basel

4. Arez Lynched Day 3 - the Tre Deuces

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe - uncontested Sheriff

13. Sakaea

14. Pale Mynd2.0

15. Kaylee

16. Christine Ironeyes

17. Levity Aiel Heart

18. peace Lynched Day 2 - Kings of Hell MC

19. Nynaeve Killed NIght 2 - Italian Mob

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP Modkilled Day 1 - Italian Mob

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie

 

24 players would yield at most 8 non-town players based on the typical guideline of 1/3 for worst case scenario. If there are four mafia teams, they would have to be two at a time. 12 mafia in a 24 player game is completely unbalanced (that's half), but 9 is possible.

 

We know there are three mob teams. Arez WIFOM'd about a fourth, but how would Arez know this? Three teams of three makes more sense. This would mean that the Italian Mob has only one player left, and the other two are down one a piece. If we began with 9 mafia total, then only 5 are left. But it gets better...

 

We have to speculate on their win condition. Does each mafia team have to completely wipe out the other or do they merely have to outnumber half the remaining players? If there are 4 teams of 2 or 3 teams of 3, the strongest mafia team only has two scummies left. Out of 17 remaining players, at worst only 5 of us are scum so 12 townies are good odds against the scum.

 

Narrowing the list down, we can remove Darthe and Limi for the time being. Again, when you reach the end of that WIFOM maze with logic as your guide, you should come to the same conclusion as I did. Darthe must be telling the truth and Limi must be town.

 

We can narrow this down even further. I am on a mason team with Ironeyes. We are both town. Feel free to kill one of us tonight, but it would only make the other a proven townie. There are only two of us. That's four from 17, making 13 remaining players.

 

If there are any other mason teams out there, consider coming forward but fully reveal. Anyone who keeps their mason partner a secret is likely scum so that they don't risk being outed. Only a true mason team would reveal both or all members.

 

So the power comes back to Darthe and who he views. If he dies tonight, he may or may not pass his viewing onto his deputy. Either way, right now Darthe's deputy is in a great position to figure out who left is mafia.

[Darthe]

My viewings are auto passed as well as my powers upon death. I will not reveal my deputy unless you all start to lynch him or upon my imminent death.

[Ironeyes]

1. Ishy

2. Nolder Lynched Day 1 -Town Vigilante

3. Basel

4. Arez Lynched Day 3 - the Tre Deuces

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe - uncontested Sheriff

13. Sakaea

14. Pale Mynd2.0

15. Kaylee

16. Christine Ironeyes

17. Levity Aiel Heart

18. peace Lynched Day 2 - Kings of Hell MC

19. Nynaeve Killed NIght 2 - Italian Mob

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP Modkilled Day 1 - Italian Mob

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie

 

24 players would yield at most 8 non-town players based on the typical guideline of 1/3 for worst case scenario. If there are four mafia teams, they would have to be two at a time. 12 mafia in a 24 player game is completely unbalanced (that's half), but 9 is possible.

 

We know there are three mob teams. Arez WIFOM'd about a fourth, but how would Arez know this? Three teams of three makes more sense. This would mean that the Italian Mob has only one player left, and the other two are down one a piece. If we began with 9 mafia total, then only 5 are left. But it gets better...

 

We have to speculate on their win condition. Does each mafia team have to completely wipe out the other or do they merely have to outnumber half the remaining players? If there are 4 teams of 2 or 3 teams of 3, the strongest mafia team only has two scummies left. Out of 17 remaining players, at worst only 5 of us are scum so 12 townies are good odds against the scum.

 

Narrowing the list down, we can remove Darthe and Limi for the time being. Again, when you reach the end of that WIFOM maze with logic as your guide, you should come to the same conclusion as I did. Darthe must be telling the truth and Limi must be town.

 

We can narrow this down even further. I am on a mason team with Ironeyes. We are both town. Feel free to kill one of us tonight, but it would only make the other a proven townie. There are only two of us. That's four from 17, making 13 remaining players.

 

If there are any other mason teams out there, consider coming forward but fully reveal. Anyone who keeps their mason partner a secret is likely scum so that they don't risk being outed. Only a true mason team would reveal both or all members.

 

So the power comes back to Darthe and who he views. If he dies tonight, he may or may not pass his viewing onto his deputy. Either way, right now Darthe's deputy is in a great position to figure out who left is mafia.

 

I wasn't going to reveal that... but oh well.

[Myndrunner]

I think at this point, whatever we reveal would only help us. We've nailed four scum, two from one team and one from two other teams. If there is a fourth team out there, then we are in even better shape than if there are three teams of three.

[bgrishinko]

Mafia 1: Italian Mob

19. Nynaeve Killed NIght 2 - Italian Mob

22. EP Modkilled Day 1 - Italian Mob

 

Mafia 2: Kings of Hell MC

18. peace Lynched Day 2 - Kings of Hell MC

 

Mafia 3: Tres Deuces

4. Arez Lynched Day 3 - Tre Deuces

------------------------------------------------------------------

Town:

2. Nolder Lynched Day 1 -Town Vigilante

24. Mynd Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie

 

12. Darthe - Sheriiff

 

? - Deputy

23. Little Miss - Vanilla

 

16. Christine Ironeyes - Mason

14. Pale Mynd2.0 - Mason

 

 

1. Ishy

3. Basel

5. Razen

6. BG - Vanilla

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

13. Sakaea

15. Kaylee

17. Levity Aiel Heart

20. Tina

21. Key

 

 

Am I missing something here?

[Darthe]

I am suspicious of AH. let's not forget that she has taken over for levity and has been a bit odd this game.

[Aiel Heart]

I'm trying to get caught up now...

[SBoydW]

Deadline: http://www.timeandda...in=&sec=&p0=412

[Darthe]

1. Ishy

2. Nolder Lynched Day 1 -Town Vigilante

3. Basel

4. Arez Lynched Day 3 - the Tre Deuces

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe - uncontested Sheriff

13. Sakaea

14. Pale Mynd2.0

15. Kaylee

16. Christine Ironeyes

17. Levity Aiel Heart

18. peace Lynched Day 2 - Kings of Hell MC

19. Nynaeve Killed NIght 2 - Italian Mob

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP Modkilled Day 1 - Italian Mob

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie

 

Forgive me for stealing your list Mynd, but it is much clearer than my own. Now, if we add to it in chronological order and assume based on my earlier math theory (which btw, most of you disagreed with but has proven correct so far!) let's cross out more potentials and assume (which I agree with you on, Mynd) that there are a total of five remaining scum.

 

1. Ishy - Under Radar, abnormal

2. Nolder Lynched Day 1 -Town Vigilante

3. Basel - Common Suspect

4. Arez Lynched Day 3 - the Tre Deuces

5. Razen - Common Suspect

6. BG - Common Suspect

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano - Common Suspect

12. Darthe - Sheriff

13. Sakaea

14. Pale Mynd2.0 - Claimed Mason

15. Kaylee - nearly silent

16. Christine Ironeyes - Claimed Mason

17. Levity Aiel Heart - Personal Suspect

18. peace Lynched Day 2 - Kings of Hell MC

19. Nynaeve Killed NIght 2 - Italian Mob

20. Tina - Common Suspect

21. Key - Common Suspect

22. EP Modkilled Day 1 - Italian Mob

23. Little Miss: Vetted, Alive

24. Mynd Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie

 

This is the list updated with how people are claiming and how they have been treated in the game so far. Based on it and the assumption that there are five scum left in game we can be fairly sure that there will be at least another one or two in our common suspect list (here common is being used to refer to people who have been suspected of being scum by the town in general, versus personal suspicion) and one among the black. With this in mind, let us temporarily assume that the people that we should go after should be chosen based on the qualities we have used so far. Namely: logic, reasoning, and behavior. This is the fundamental step to rooting out the other scum. If it is done properly, the scum has no chance of winning. Also, we have made it several days with our Dr. still alive and hidden and we still have both our current cop and our backup! The town is doing well.

[Darthe]

By mathematical logic, Kaylee or Sakaea are more likely to be scum. You all may not agree, but it is probably true.

[Ironeyes]

I certainly don't think mafia should be played with math. It's about knowing people and how they act in different scenarios. Or, if you're scum, it's about knowing what everybody else will be suspecting and doing the opposite. And then the experienced town people become suspicious of people playing "too clean," and it ends up being that the best scum player is the one who can delude himself or herself into thinking he/she is town.

[Ironeyes]

I had a point when I started that. I don't remember what it was, though.

[Lenlo]

Well lurking has worked well for scum in the past. I could see Kaylee or Kae as scum, though I agree with Iron that math is not the best of ways to search for them.

[Ironeyes]

Yeah, I tended to lurk when I was scum in the Sith game.

[Darthe]

So you want to play logically based on your reasoning and judgement but not based on calculations, which are defined as "An assessment of the risks, possibilities, or effects of a situation or course of action."

 

Interesting.