Census : Randland 996NE

[Entreri]

All these numbers are on the low side if the population is that large. 

 

Now it would be understandable if the world was peaceful or the Seanchan weren't a military powerhouse.

 

We should be seeing Seanchan armies numbering in the millions and at least 10,000 damane in Randland (so for a major battle, 1000 damane). 

 

Instead we have armies numbering in the range of 100,000-300,000 (which includes conquered land armies) and damane in the range of 100-200. 

[Thrasymachus]

Let's just look at the White Tower.  If your numbers are right, and there's 50-1 learners to sparkers, a ratio I've never heard of before by the way, and 100 million people living in Randland, and 1/4 of the sparkers survive sparking (should be more, the WT says it catches some of them before the spark), that's still 2500 sparkers who are born and can be expected to survive.  The White Tower doesn't catch all of them, sure, so let's say a 1/4 of sparkers go on to live their lives completely unaffiliated with any channeler group, a second 1/4 join up with the Wise Women/Kin directly, and the remaining half go to the Tower directly, of which half of those are rejected and end up back with the Kin.  That might end up close to the numbers of the Tower and Wise Women as reported in the books, but it still doesn't take into account that there should be 3430 female learners in Tar Valon (and 70 male sparkers!).

 

But wait, channelers live 3-7 times longer than a non-channeler.  If that 1% is a percentage of the people who are born, then the population is going to display a greater proportion of channelers to non-channelers than their birth rates.  Say you start with 5000 people, and one of them is a sparker, while 50 of them are learners.  Suppose none of the learners learn.  Let's say this population is stable, so that over a given period of time, on average, the same number of people are born as die.  In 100 years, 4999 people have died, and 4999 people have been born.  So, in 101 years, you now have 2 sparkers.  In 202 years, you've got 3.  Now, one of these three takes the oath rod and swears on it, so she doesn't make it to 303 years, but we've still got 3 sparkers because a new one's been born.  In year 404, we've got 4 sparkers, in year 505, we've got five.  In year 606, we've still got 5 because of that oath rod again, and in year 707 and beyond, we stay with 5 because 600-700 years is about the lifespan of an unbound channeler.  Because none of the learners learned, the ratio of sparkers to learners is now 1:10, even though they're born at a rate of 1:50.  The overall rate of sparkers to the population is 1:1000, not 1:5000, even though they're born at a rate of 1:5000.  

 

So even if you're right that the ratio of sparkers to learners is 50-1, there should still be more channelers running around because they live on average 5 times longer than everybody else.  30,000 damane is what you'd expect if damane lived as long as sul'dam and the rest.  Because they live 5 times longer, you should expect 150,000.

[Charlz Guybon]

All these numbers are on the low side if the population is that large. 

 

Now it would be understandable if the world was peaceful or the Seanchan weren't a military powerhouse.

 

We should be seeing Seanchan armies numbering in the millions and at least 10,000 damane in Randland (so for a major battle, 1000 damane). 

 

Instead we have armies numbering in the range of 100,000-300,000 (which includes conquered land armies) and damane in the range of 100-200. 

That's just not true. You don't seem to understand that it was literally impossible to raise, train, supply and concentrate such forces before the industrial age.

 

The Seanchan clearly have a few million men under arms, if we include the Seanchan homeland, and it's likely over half a million just in the Westlands, but it's impossible to concentrate more than a couple of hundred thousand in any one place. Even that would strain their logistics to the near breaking point.

 

It's a big advantage the Shadow has had over the light since the Breaking. The Ten Nations of the 2nd Compact may each have been able to raise an average of half a million men for a total of 5 million, but they can't concentrate them in force like the Trollocs do. The Trollocs can eat the dead, theirs or the enemy, and the Dark One doesn't care if they die.

[Entreri]

All these numbers are on the low side if the population is that large. 

 

Now it would be understandable if the world was peaceful or the Seanchan weren't a military powerhouse.

 

We should be seeing Seanchan armies numbering in the millions and at least 10,000 damane in Randland (so for a major battle, 1000 damane). 

 

Instead we have armies numbering in the range of 100,000-300,000 (which includes conquered land armies) and damane in the range of 100-200. 

That's just not true. You don't seem to understand that it was literally impossible to raise, train, supply and concentrate such forces before the industrial age.

 

The Seanchan clearly have a few million men under arms, if we include the Seanchan homeland, and it's likely over half a million just in the Westlands, but it's impossible to concentrate more than a couple of hundred thousand in any one place. Even that would strain their logistics to the near breaking point.

 

It's a big advantage the Shadow has had over the light since the Breaking. The Ten Nations of the 2nd Compact may each have been able to raise an average of half a million men for a total of 5 million, but they can't concentrate them in force like the Trollocs do. The Trollocs can eat the dead, theirs or the enemy, and the Dark One doesn't care if they die.

Hmm...250,000 Wetlander armies from the various Border regions...An army of 300,000 Seanchan(+conquered nation troops) going after Iturlade.

 

So I would have to disagree.

 

The Seanchan would have good logistics.  Various creatures to carry burden, they even have flying creatures and now Travelling.  You can't get better than Travelling...best sci-fi equivalent is Trek type teleportation. They have brought a lot of labourers and we see that Seanchan easily restore order in various nations they conquer.  

[Charlz Guybon]

That borderland army is 200,000 strong not 250.

 

I'm pretty sure that army that chased Ituralde was not that big, but I'm only half through CoT in my reread.

[avernite]

The Borderlander army is pretty amazing, though. In our history, such forces concentrated in one army only happened around Napoleon's time (in the 7 years war in the 1750's, most battles were still between armies with less than 100,000 men per side). It seems quite possible for the 4 nations to have such an army, but for them to combine it in one place and keep it alive for months seems amazing. They even all camped around Far Madding.

[Charlz Guybon]

Even if they don't understand why they do it (Germ theory), I would say that their practical application of sanitation and medicine is mostly on par with the late second half of the 19th century. You won't have anesthesia, but you'd almost certainly better off having a limb amputated by an army surgeon in the WoT, than an American soldier would have been in the Civil War.

 

It's one of those things that they never forgot despite the Breaking.

[Entreri]

That borderland army is 200,000 strong not 250.

 

I'm pretty sure that army that chased Ituralde was not that big, but I'm only half through CoT in my reread.

 

You are correct about the size of the Borderland Army, it is 200,000.

 

It was 300,000 for the Seanchan force and he is facing off against another 300,000 Seanchan force.

 

The Gathering Storm.

 

"Half of Iturlade's hundred thousand, dead. On any other battlefield, fifty thousand casualties would have shamed and angered him.  But he'd faced down a force three times his size, and one with damane at that".

 

After Ituralde destroyed the first army a second Seanchan one comes in: "This new Seanchan general," Iturlade said., "is marshalling over three hundred thousand men, with a good two hundred damane". 

 

Randland armies can have Aes Sedai healers and now Asha'man healers...damane have learned to heal as well...In WWI, a lot of soliders died to disease, trench warfare. With the One Power, Star Trek like healing is possible. 

 

 

This further leads credence to Ituralde's statement that nothing short of the Seanchan could stop the vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself. 

[Suttree]

This further leads credence to Ituralde's statement that nothing short of the Seanchan could stop the vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself. 

Good God Entreri, are you truly back at it once again with these crazy claims of  Rand killing 1 million trollocs with the power at Maradon?

 

For frame of reference in KoD Bashere said he had never seen a trolloc raid bigger than 1,000 in number. It would take far less than 1 million for Ituralde to make the claim above. I'm always astounded that people flat out ignore author quotes and textual evidence on this one.

[Entreri]

This further leads credence to Ituralde's statement that nothing short of the Seanchan could stop the vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself. 

Good God Entreri, are you truly back at it once again with these crazy claims of  Rand killing 1 million trollocs with the power at Maradon?

 

For frame of reference in KoD Bashere said he had never seen a trolloc raid bigger than 1,000 in number. It would take far less than 1 million for Ituralde to make the claim above. I'm always astounded that people flat out ignore author quotes and textual evidence on this one.

LOL.

 

When have I ever said he killed 1 million? Given Brandon's description (thousands dying within moments, at least 1 hour of channeling), I count approx 180,000 dead and that is me being very conservative.  Do the math yourself.

 

Iturlade has faced 2 ARMIES numbering 300,000, with 100's of DAMANE, and defeated one, for him to state this, the Trolloc Army was TITANTIC. 

 

Why is it so hard for you to believe that a Trolloc Army could be that large, given it is mentioned many times that Trollocs VASTLY outnumber the human armies?  You are going to see many more titanic Trolloc armies in AMOL.

 

Say if it was merely a 100,000, like at the manor house, Iturlade would have not commented..   And certainly any major nation army could defeat 100,000 Trollocs...Andor would have at least 100,000 men and that goes for most of the nations. 

 

Further, Ituralde is well aware of what forces Rand has, including 200,000+Aiel (which Iturlade would equate to having 400,000+ wetlander army...)  So even a Trolloc Army at 1/2 million would not phase him so. 

[Suttree]

This further leads credence to Ituralde's statement that nothing short of the Seanchan could stop the vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself. 

Good God Entreri, are you truly back at it once again with these crazy claims of  Rand killing 1 million trollocs with the power at Maradon?

 

For frame of reference in KoD Bashere said he had never seen a trolloc raid bigger than 1,000 in number. It would take far less than 1 million for Ituralde to make the claim above. I'm always astounded that people flat out ignore author quotes and textual evidence on this one.

LOL.

 

When have I ever said he killed 1 million? Given Brandon's description (thousands dying within moments, at least 1 hour of channeling), I count approx 180,000 dead and that is me being very conservative.  Do the math yourself.

 

Iturlade has faced 2 ARMIES numbering 300,000, with 100's of DAMANE, and defeated one, for him to state this, the Trolloc Army was TITANTIC. 

 

Why is it so hard for you to believe that a Trolloc Army could be that large, given it is mentioned many times that Trollocs VASTLY outnumber the human armies?  You are going to see many more titanic Trolloc armies in AMOL.

My bad...misunderstood where you were going with this.

 

 

vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself.

[Entreri]

This further leads credence to Ituralde's statement that nothing short of the Seanchan could stop the vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself. 

Good God Entreri, are you truly back at it once again with these crazy claims of  Rand killing 1 million trollocs with the power at Maradon?

 

For frame of reference in KoD Bashere said he had never seen a trolloc raid bigger than 1,000 in number. It would take far less than 1 million for Ituralde to make the claim above. I'm always astounded that people flat out ignore author quotes and textual evidence on this one.

LOL.

 

When have I ever said he killed 1 million? Given Brandon's description (thousands dying within moments, at least 1 hour of channeling), I count approx 180,000 dead and that is me being very conservative.  Do the math yourself.

 

Iturlade has faced 2 ARMIES numbering 300,000, with 100's of DAMANE, and defeated one, for him to state this, the Trolloc Army was TITANTIC. 

 

Why is it so hard for you to believe that a Trolloc Army could be that large, given it is mentioned many times that Trollocs VASTLY outnumber the human armies?  You are going to see many more titanic Trolloc armies in AMOL.

My bad...misunderstood where you were going with this.

 

 

vast Trolloc Army (likely numbering at 1 MILLION), which Rand DESTROYED by himself.

 

Ok.

 

See my additional comments...Ituralde is probably the greatest general next to Mat...for him to be that intimidated by the size of the Trolloc Army is saying something.

[Suttree]

I don't necessarily know about that. Again in KoD Bashere says he has never seen a trolloc raid larger than 1,000. I have a feeling Ituralde would have that type of reaction in the face of say 500,000.

[Orange7]

I think that everyone is failing to realize just how sparsely populated Randland is. The only thing between Altara and Kandor is Andor. To help fight this issue, here is a map. Everything in red has been described in the books as having almost no population.

 

 

Sorry for the poor coloring.

 

 

 

Also, due to the complaints I may receive, I am also sorry for not coloring in more of Tarabon.

[Agitel]

I think that everyone is failing to realize just how sparsely populated Randland is. The only thing between Altara and Kandor is Andor. To help fight this issue, here is a map. Everything in red has been described in the books as having almost no population.

 

 

Sorry for the poor coloring.

 

 

 

Also, due to the complaints I may receive, I am also sorry for not coloring in more of Tarabon.

 

At 70 million, it would be pretty sparsely populated. I don't think people appreciate how large a landmass we're talking about. If it was "reasonably"  populated (as opposed to sparsely), we could probably expect over 150 million in that area.

[Knivy]

Numbers, after a certain point, dont mean much when it comes to channeler vs. mundane armies.  Take deathgates, for example.  Be it half a million or a quarter of a million, the difference almost nonexistant when they are coming for you.  Even if you are on an open plain, only a few can get at you at once.  A deathgate will kill ten thousand against a force of half a million, or twenty against a million.  Thats without factoring in the natural choke points of the landscape, ect.  And I dont really know where Im going with this.

[Charlz Guybon]

I think that everyone is failing to realize just how sparsely populated Randland is. The only thing between Altara and Kandor is Andor. To help fight this issue, here is a map. Everything in red has been described in the books as having almost no population.

 

 

Sorry for the poor coloring.

 

 

 

Also, due to the complaints I may receive, I am also sorry for not coloring in more of Tarabon.

 

At 70 million, it would be pretty sparsely populated. I don't think people appreciate how large a landmass we're talking about. If it was "reasonably"  populated (as opposed to sparsely), we could probably expect over 150 million in that area.

At roughly 6 million sq. miles that would only be 25 people per sq. mile, that's about a third as densely populated as 15th century France before the plague. That would be less densely populated than 15th century Britain.

 

Given that most of the Westlands is flat land crossed by large rivers and between the 20th and 40th lines of latitude there was doubtlessly 300-450 million people there when the continent was fully settled.

 

Even now, with half the continent abandoned and density within nations low, if Andor has 10 million people, than a little more than 100 for the whole continent is likely.

[Entreri]

I don't necessarily know about that. Again in KoD Bashere says he has never seen a trolloc raid larger than 1,000. I have a feeling Ituralde would have that type of reaction in the face of say 500,000.

 

I doubt it.  An army of only 1/2 million Trollocs can be defeated by the forces Rand has, someone like Ituralde would know this.   He also knows that the Seanchan have the largest fighting force, this is why he stated he hoped the DR turned the Seanchan around. 

 

He has faced two Seanchan armies of 300,000 with 100's of damane, defeated one and ran from the other.  Even Mat hasn't faced off against that kind of numbers yet. 

[Agitel]

I think that everyone is failing to realize just how sparsely populated Randland is. The only thing between Altara and Kandor is Andor. To help fight this issue, here is a map. Everything in red has been described in the books as having almost no population.

 

 

Sorry for the poor coloring.

 

 

 

Also, due to the complaints I may receive, I am also sorry for not coloring in more of Tarabon.

 

At 70 million, it would be pretty sparsely populated. I don't think people appreciate how large a landmass we're talking about. If it was "reasonably"  populated (as opposed to sparsely), we could probably expect over 150 million in that area.

At roughly 6 million sq. miles that would only be 25 people per sq. mile, that's about a third as densely populated as 15th century France before the plague. That would be less densely populated than 15th century Britain.

 

Given that most of the Westlands is flat land crossed by large rivers and between the 20th and 40th lines of latitude there was doubtlessly 300-450 million people there when the continent was fully settled.

 

Even now, with half the continent abandoned and density within nations low, if Andor has 10 million people, than a little more than 100 for the whole continent is lightly.

 

Thank you.

[Torome]

Randland is significantly larger than the continental US.  The current population of deer in the U.S. is 27 million.  The population of Native Americans when colonists landed was estimated to be 30-35 million and they were subsistence farmer and some were hunter/gatherer with no large cities(talking about in US, but even if you count Mexico that would make two large cities)  I have a tough time believing the population was under 40-45 million which is about the estimated population of Westeros in GRRM's Song of Ice and Fire.  Now one thing that could help explain lower populations is that for most of history 98% of us have lived withing 50 mile of major bodies of water, such as the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, or major rivers; Randland is a giant square with(for the area) very little coastline.  Most of the pop is in the south-close to the Sea of Storms, and along the rivers Erinen, Alguenya, Manetherendrelle, Arinelle, and Eldar. All that considered we have to go back to the pre-colonial pop of US to get an idea of the absolute min pop of Randland and it is around 35 million; and the most likely pop is 45 million.

[Caliban]

It seems like Rand-Land is supposed to have occurred in a similar time to the 1300's in our own timeline. World population in the 1300's was around 350 million people. This is even after the Black Plague and the Mongol Invasions.

[Charlz Guybon]

It seems like Rand-Land is supposed to have occurred in a similar time to the 1300's in our own timeline. World population in the 1300's was around 350 million people. This is even after the Black Plague and the Mongol Invasions.

They're far more advanced then that, a lot of their tech is from the 16-1700s with the notable exception of gunpowder weapons.

[joeron bigelow]

I just find it amazing that Randland has so many people - and no running water.

 

You would think the dark one would have more rats running around with no aqueducts or irrigation system. Only that one town - the one where the Shaido fell to Perrin...cant recall the name had an plumbing system I just dont recall what it was.

[Caliban]

It seems like Rand-Land is supposed to have occurred in a similar time to the 1300's in our own timeline. World population in the 1300's was around 350 million people. This is even after the Black Plague and the Mongol Invasions.

They're far more advanced then that, a lot of their tech is from the 16-1700s with the notable exception of gunpowder weapons.

The cannon was brought to Europe around about the latter part of the Hundred Years War. 

[Suttree]

I just find it amazing that Randland has so many people - and no running water. You would think the dark one would have more rats running around with no aqueducts or irrigation system. Only that one town - the one where the Shaido fell to Perrin...cant recall the name had an plumbing system I just dont recall what it was.

What makes you think it was limited to Malden?