[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!

[bgrishinko]

interesting, berf has made some blatant contradictions just now. why would you contradict yourself so much? berf has never seemed to me to be an erratic player, so this seems suspicious.

 

more suspicious than wombat at least.

 

 

If my posts are all over the place, it could be due to the fact that I don't play this game very often, and tend to just spew vitriolic my current thoughts and feelings. As I said, my vote for Blackhoof is due to the fact that his Day One actions seem very scummy, and his posts since then can be a little ...agreeable? From memory, he jumps on other's reasons, though I could be wrong there.

 

 

I agree with Berf's reasoning for the day 1 vote, but like Blackhoof notes there are contradictions here. I'm willing to give Berfs the benefit of the doubt for now and assume that he simply had a slip of the tongue later on. But I'm going to keep an eye out on Berf for the remainder of the day. I'm not opposed to switching votes here if needed.

I too on catch-up reading thought Blackhoof seemed a bit scummy so I'll leave my vote for now. Of course my opinions of you Blackhoof are still sour from the last game we were in together Lady Suroth. *Shakes fist madly* It might wear off after a while.

 

 

Well, as I mentioned before, I would be okay with a Berf Lynch as well as the Blackhoof one, so UNVOTE: VOTE BERF.

 

Berf is panicking and asking for reasons why the lynch on him is building when it has already been explained a few times.

 

BTW, Walls of Text are pretty much Red's play style, so I don't see anything particularly scum in it right now.

 

As you can see, I mentioned that I was okay with a Berf vote before. The contradictions that Berf made which have already been discussed felt a little more blatantly scum than any of the feelings I had for Blackhoof. Seemed like the right place to place the vote.

[hotpocket2006]

I have a question to ask Song.

 

So I am sorry I haven't been around much this day. I have been super busy the past couple RL days, but I think the Berf case is interesting and I can see it and I am willing to put him at L-3 to see what comes of it. It's interesting that Red brings up L-5 being a good number, when that's normally not true.

 

VOTE BERF

 

Emphasis mine. Please note that your vote was L-2 (the 7th vote, putting Berf 2 votes away from a Lynch).

Why did you say it was putting Berf at L-3 then?

 

I honestly thought I was putting him at L-3. I just had a couple to check in. I thought Berf looked scummy and warranted more than the L-5 pressuring.

[hotpocket2006]

I think I missed drews vote and the top, on me looking back I barely caught it this time.

[csarmi]

I can see that.

I agree with Red here, by the way (L-5 vs L-3), I don't know what's normal, but I think that in this game extra care is required because of the NK rules.

[WWWwombat]

I was talking about something else, Red. Certain things shouldn't be discussed because the scum would gain an advantage from such discussion.

[csarmi]

I was told that it applies even more for the nights and yet so many talking both nights?

Yea I know, I'm FOS @myself too...

[Aust]

I was talking about something else, Red. Certain things shouldn't be discussed because the scum would gain an advantage from such discussion.

 

Actually Wombat, the scum gain an advantage by not talking about the voting. I'm assuming this big 'forbidden' topic you're referring to is the voting rule? Is there some compelling reason you don't want to talk about this?

[Krakalakachkn]

My guess is that the scum will benefit from it.

[Red2111]

well on that issue i can see where Womby has a point Aust. if we discuss hwo exactly we'll analyze the voting, it allows for the scum not only to direct us easier, but also muck up our results as well.

[Red2111]

also, CS talking at night's okay. it's just revealing info & casing people where you can run into problems at

[alannalynn]

I'm not going to fully rewrite my WoT, I'm just going to post as topics are brought up or I remember... lol

 

I honestly don't see where talking about the voting is such a horrible thing, but I think like Aust most of the time (and want to slap him in games like Charlie Sheen mafia). Being that the lynch/nk are intertwined (unlike usual), it could be used to our advantage, if we could find a way. HOW can they (the mafia) find advantage, Red and Wombat? I know you say that they can plan for what we come up with, but do we know this?

[csarmi]

Argh, too high know/sentence ratio.

 

Do we know what?

[csarmi]

Well, analyzing who voted how, when and what is not a good idea in the evening. Why give the Maffia information just when they need it most?

[Alanna]

Wow, you guys know how to kill some discussion

 

Yukiri reached her dark rooms shortly before dawn. It was a little frightening, being out at night, when one was hunting the Black Ajah. But she'd only just returned from another secret meeting with some of the few Sister she could trust. The Black Ajah wasn't sleeping. Neither could she.

 

What she didn't realize was that someone was waiting for her in her room. It was pitch black, and the intruder had been cautious and inverted the weaves she had already prepared to spring on her unknowing victim. Yukiri was dead before she hit the floor.

 

(Wombat) Yukiri, Gray Ajah, has been nightkilled.

 

Day 3 begins. With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

 

- - - - - - -

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

[Alanna]

In memorium of Wombat, I wanted to post this little exchange that just took place here in my house. My family is planning a trip to Australia this summer, and we were talking about it.

 

MY MOM: We might even see some wombats.

MY DAD: I don't actually know what a wombat is.

ME: He's a very good mafia player.

 

(Which earned an odd look from my dad )

[bgrishinko]

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

 

Ah... eff....

[Talmanes]

Lol I feel like I shouldn't be laughing after the results, but that's is hilarious!

I'm always saying things like that that no one gets IRL. I keep getting weird looks for Blaming the Taint, or saying 'I win again Lews Therin' and such like that.

 

Ok though, now that it is morning, back to business.

 

I think somebody already brought up the point I was waiting to make, but it was essentially this:

The last few votes on Berf came quickly and with little reasoning, which make me almost positive that there were scum in that group panicking and trying to get on the lynch so that they could get a NK.

 

I'll have to go back for quotes later, I'm quite busy with school work now.

[Blackhoof]

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

 

ugh.... that throws a spanner in the works :P

 

interesting how their was only one nk.

 

let us compare, shall we?

 

Day 2

Vote Count:

Blackhoof (3) - Red, Berf, Curt

Drew (1) - Meesh

Wombat (1) - Blackhoof

Berf (9) - Talmanes, Aust, Wombat, Krak, csarmi, Drew, Song, BG, leelou

 

Not Voting (2): Player, AJ

 

Day 1

Vote Count:

Aust (2) - Meesh, Phelix

Meesh (1) - Thorum(AJ)

Red (2) - Player, Wombat

Phelix (10) - Berf, Song, Blackhoof, Tynaal, Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Blackhoof (1) - Krak

 

Not Voting (1): Mav, leelou

 

Okay, i have divided the players into three categories:

Red: On both lynches

Blue: On one lynch

Green: On neither

Note: Since BG and tynall were only listed on one lynch each and weren't present on the other one, i will assume that BG replaced tynaal (not sure if he did, think so though)

 

Nothing conclusive can be drawn from this yet, but i feel that we can find one scum team amongst this group:

Talmanes

csarmi

drew

aust

tynaal/bg

song

 

FOS @ all those people.

[bgrishinko]

You are correct sir, I did indeed replace Tynaal.

 

Well, I shoulda kept my vote over on Blackhoof because now I've gotten myself into this pickle. Well going of Black's list:

 

Talmanes

csarmi

drew

aust

BG

song

I also think it us fair to look here. I've gotta start casing everybody here, but just off the top of my head Song hasn't seemed too off to me. I don't really have a good opinion on Aust. Drew was in the 2nd half of both lynches. Csarmi, as well. He doesn't seem to be able to keep his opinions straight either. Talmanes hasn't pinged me much one way or the other yet. And well, then there is me. I'll let others case me cause I've got nothing to hide.

On a related note, we know that there are 2 mafia teams (at least) since one of the teams killed another BA. That makes me suspicious of Krak and leelou as well. It is quite possible that the other Mafia team who is short one member moved in last night and the 1st night mafia split up... or not, maybe it was the same team... I'm getting myself confused looking at the possibilities involved there and my head hurts. Too many possible iterations of blue players mixed with red... I'm going to go do some math, then I'll be back.

[bgrishinko]

Ok Math: All this is assuming the BA Rule of 3 that our dear friend Phelix died over:

 

Night 1 Stats:

1 Mafia Team Gains Nightkill: 9 possible people = 84 different possible teams

Number of different lists each person appears on: 28

33% Chance of Scum on Random Kill

 

Night 2 Stats:

1 Mafia Team Gains Nightkill: 8 Possible People = 28 Possible 2 Man Teams + 56 Possible 3 Man Teams = 84 Possible Teams

Each Person is on 7 + 21 = 29 different lists per/person

.25 + .375 / 2 = 31% Chance of Scum on Random Kill

 

Finally, looking at the scary six:

Same Mafia kills both Nights = 20 possible Teams:

Each person on 10 Lists

1 Person at random = 17% chance * 3 = 51% Chance of getting a mafia kill.

 

Scary Six Data only valid if Mafia Team A was the killer on both nights.

Otherwise, that data is moot.

 

So the here's the deal. If the same mafia team killed both nights, we have a 50/50 chance of getting one of them given no other scummy casing.

If it was a different team, then we have no choice but to look at the statistics separately. In which case, it is good to look at the people on the list, but a lot more casing needs to be done first.

 

Now I need sleep.

[alannalynn]

BG, I think you're trying to confuse us with your stats.

[Talmanes]

Ok so I went back and did a quick reread mostly looking for anything about Song, BG, and Leelou, and multiquote apparently puts them in order of when they were posted and not in the order you clicked them so bear with me.

 

 

It's very good a member of the Black Ajah is dead, what is troubling is that it seems there are more than one team of BA from the way the scene reads and the way NKs are set up. I've started to piece together cases of those I was getting scum vibes off of from day 1 and hope to have them done later.

 

Ok so here leelou mentions she is putting together cases. Nothing wrong with that.

I don't want to seem inactive. I'm at my sister's house right now and do not have my computer with my mostly completed cases and extensive notes. So sorry no quotes, just going to post my small notes I have with me.

 

During day 1 Blackhoof was coming off very strong with trying to get a lynch going on Phelix with no deadline and there was more time for discussion. After re-reading the whole back and forth between them I was getting a very scummy vibe off of Blackhoof.

 

Another couple of things that stuck out was when Talmanes changed his vote from Blackhoof, whom he found scummy, to Phelix who he wasn't so sure about. The reason this stuck out was that Blackhoof did have votes on him, he was acting scummy, and there was no deadline.

 

The other thing that really stuck out was that Curt was very quiet all day and came in to bandwagon neatly near the end.

 

I will have to go back and do a re-read for myself to check out the drew situation. Right now I could go either way with that.

 

I believe we will get information off a Blackhoof vote, but when I get home and can look over my cases, and another look at drew, my vote might change.

 

Here, a couple of days later she mentions them again, with still no indication of posting them. When people say things like this, but don't deliver, it tends to make them look scummy in my point of view.

So I am sorry I haven't been around much this day. I have been super busy the past couple RL days, but I think the Berf case is interesting and I can see it and I am willing to put him at L-3 to see what comes of it. It's interesting that Red brings up L-5 being a good number, when that's normally not true.

 

VOTE BERF

 

Even assuming she truly made the lynch count mistake, she still should have noticed how fast the lynch was building, and given the voting/NK rule, we should be cautious at least to some extent, which is why this looks a little scummy. There isn't really much of a reason here either.

Well, as I mentioned before, I would be okay with a Berf Lynch as well as the Blackhoof one, so UNVOTE: VOTE BERF.

 

Berf is panicking and asking for reasons why the lynch on him is building when it has already been explained a few times.

 

BTW, Walls of Text are pretty much Red's play style, so I don't see anything particularly scum in it right now.

 

Same for lack of caution goes here, considering the buildup and voting rule, but he seems to have at least a somewhat legitimate reason here.

Berf, you have been very contradictory and did start the vote on Phelix. You are coming off scummy, your defense is not helping much and I am going to unvote and vote Berf

 

A simple reiteration of basic points made with no real or original reasoning which looks even worse considering it is the hammer vote.

interesting, berf has made some blatant contradictions just now. why would you contradict yourself so much? berf has never seemed to me to be an erratic player, so this seems suspicious.

 

more suspicious than wombat at least.

 

 

If my posts are all over the place, it could be due to the fact that I don't play this game very often, and tend to just spew vitriolic my current thoughts and feelings. As I said, my vote for Blackhoof is due to the fact that his Day One actions seem very scummy, and his posts since then can be a little ...agreeable? From memory, he jumps on other's reasons, though I could be wrong there.

 

 

I agree with Berf's reasoning for the day 1 vote, but like Blackhoof notes there are contradictions here. I'm willing to give Berfs the benefit of the doubt for now and assume that he simply had a slip of the tongue later on. But I'm going to keep an eye out on Berf for the remainder of the day. I'm not opposed to switching votes here if needed.

I too on catch-up reading thought Blackhoof seemed a bit scummy so I'll leave my vote for now. Of course my opinions of you Blackhoof are still sour from the last game we were in together Lady Suroth. *Shakes fist madly* It might wear off after a while.

 

 

Well, as I mentioned before, I would be okay with a Berf Lynch as well as the Blackhoof one, so UNVOTE: VOTE BERF.

 

Berf is panicking and asking for reasons why the lynch on him is building when it has already been explained a few times.

 

BTW, Walls of Text are pretty much Red's play style, so I don't see anything particularly scum in it right now.

 

As you can see, I mentioned that I was okay with a Berf vote before. The contradictions that Berf made which have already been discussed felt a little more blatantly scum than any of the feelings I had for Blackhoof. Seemed like the right place to place the vote.

 

Same defense/reason for his vote here, and honestly, it could be legitimate, and just that he threw caution out the window, or it could be a rush to vote.

I have a question to ask Song.

 

So I am sorry I haven't been around much this day. I have been super busy the past couple RL days, but I think the Berf case is interesting and I can see it and I am willing to put him at L-3 to see what comes of it. It's interesting that Red brings up L-5 being a good number, when that's normally not true.

 

VOTE BERF

 

Emphasis mine. Please note that your vote was L-2 (the 7th vote, putting Berf 2 votes away from a Lynch).

Why did you say it was putting Berf at L-3 then?

 

I honestly thought I was putting him at L-3. I just had a couple to check in. I thought Berf looked scummy and warranted more than the L-5 pressuring.

Even with this defense, and assuming that you really thought it was only putting him at L-3, that is still two more votes from L-5, which leads me to ask, if you truly were only trying to pressure him only, how many votes exactly would you think necessary?

 

 

I will be watching all three closest, though Song and Leelou are looking scummier to me, with Leelou coming up in front as scummiest. Honestly I didn't get nearly as much from my reread as I would have hoped, but I find what I do have adequate for a vote.

 

I know Day just started, but I'm going to place my vote on Leelou for now. I'd like to hear more of a response here, but also would very much like to see if the promised casings were merely to look active and innocent.

[csarmi]

A good morning to everyone!

 

BG, I think you're trying to confuse us with your stats.

 

I don't understand those stats and I have a math degree.

In any case, there are so many things we don't know. Some of those might be worth exploring.

 

1) Was it the same maffia doing the killing?

 

Statistics (and common sense) says a team with one member dead has easier time getting a NK. Otherwise, we don't know.

 

2) Are there only maffia teams (no SK and such)? If yes, how many?

 

Well an SK not doing a kill would be strange so if there was an SK, the maffia team(s) wouldn't manage to get a NK either night?

This seems very unlikely.

As for the possibility of 3 or more maffia teams, it takes someone more experienced than me to say if that's possible.

 

3) Why was Wombat killed?

 

The first night the target was someone who didn't even vote. Killing someone who didn't vote for the lynch makes a lot of sense from Maffia viewpoint, as that leaves 10 people to hide amongst.

This night however, one of the lynchers died which looks strange to me. Why? What's the point? Or is it just Wine in front of us?

[dapianoplay3r]

Im still trying to get my head around the logic but for some reason my instinct was that Tal was to be watched more closely than any of the others on that list. I dont really know why but his name jumped out at me

[CurtisScafe]

 

SOMETHING YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF: THERE IS A WAY FOR A MAFIA TEAM TO GAIN A PERMANENT NIGHTKILL.

 

ugh.... that throws a spanner in the works :P

 

interesting how their was only one nk.

 

let us compare, shall we?

 

Day 2

Vote Count:

Blackhoof (3) - Red, Berf, Curt

Drew (1) - Meesh

Wombat (1) - Blackhoof

Berf (9) - Talmanes, Aust, Wombat, Krak, csarmi, Drew, Song, BG, leelou

 

Not Voting (2): Player, AJ

 

Day 1

Vote Count:

Aust (2) - Meesh, Phelix

Meesh (1) - Thorum(AJ)

Red (2) - Player, Wombat

Phelix (10) - Berf, Song, Blackhoof, Tynaal, Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Blackhoof (1) - Krak

 

Not Voting (1): Mav, leelou

 

Okay, i have divided the players into three categories:

Red: On both lynches

Blue: On one lynch

Green: On neither

Note: Since BG and tynall were only listed on one lynch each and weren't present on the other one, i will assume that BG replaced tynaal (not sure if he did, think so though)

 

Nothing conclusive can be drawn from this yet, but i feel that we can find one scum team amongst this group:

Talmanes

csarmi

drew

aust

tynaal/bg

song

 

FOS @ all those people.

I think the list should be bigger, Alanna said "A" mafia team, so we can assume there are two teams. However we do not know if it is one team of 5(4 now) and a solo or two teams of 3 (one with two now) if we go with Phelix's thoughts.

Pretty much everyone on either lynch should be on the big list

 

are all who voted on the lynches

Krak,

Song,

BG,

leelou

Blackhoof,

Aust,

Drew,

Curt,

Talmanes,

csarmi,

Red

 

 

These are who are on both lynches:

Talmanes,

Aust,

csarmi,

Drew,

Song,

BG,