Caemlyn

[Charlz Guybon]

That's not even taking into account the wager Mat made with Rahvin - in Tallanvor's hearing - that makes little sense.

Been a long time since I read that scene and most of my books are back in the states, what's the exact wording on that wager?

[redmid17]

I'm not really grasping why people refuse to believe that the Seanchan won't attack Caemlyn. Do you think the Seanchan gaining Traveling wasn't for a reason? The Seanchan needed Traveling so they could attack Caemlyn.

 

We've already seen what the shadow's forces are up to with the beginning of the invasion of the borderlands in the prologue. We also know that Iturlade sees a lot of action in this book and where is he? He's in the borderlands guarding against Trollocs and such. So obviously the main military focus of the shadow's forces is overwhelming the borderlands and hopefully destroying the White Tower from there.

 

As for the argument that you don't strike where your enemy is strongest, really? What happened at the end of TGS? The Seanchan attacked the White Tower, considered to be the bastion of strength in Randland. Also if you will recall, during the meeting with her Generals, Yulan the air commander guy I think it was had two maps and battle plans but we were only given information on the attack on the White Tower. The other attack plan the Seanchan have was suspicously kept secret...for now. As also has been mentioned, Rand expects them to attack Illian so obviously that's not what they're going to do. Tuon knows Mat thinks all the evidence points to them attacking Illian as well and she won't attack Illian for this reason alone, not to mention Illian is totally un-important...nobodies there and nobody would care if they attacked Illian. The last thing about this, which Terez mentioned is Tuon wants Mat back and she has enough evidence to believe that she will find him in Caemlyn.

 

The White Tower wasn't at its strongest though. It's at its weakest point of all time. The Tower is separated into at least 4 sizable factions (WT, rebels, unaligned, bonded). They've made no preparation for any attack despite repeated warnings for almost half of the series. Even then the attack wasn't really an full out attack like you guys are suggesting. It was essentially a raid for war materiel (AS for damane) using highly mobile and expendable troops. Now the Seanchan could definitely use Traveling, but we have no indication that they have that ability yet (though assuredly they will. I don't think the Seanchan are going to mobilize that many troops to attack a strong target. Militarily it doesn't sense to throw away troops when you know a much stronger enemy is going to be bearing down on you in the near future.

[ajfurst]

I'm not really grasping why people refuse to believe that the Seanchan won't attack Caemlyn. Do you think the Seanchan gaining Traveling wasn't for a reason? The Seanchan needed Traveling so they could attack Caemlyn.

 

We've already seen what the shadow's forces are up to with the beginning of the invasion of the borderlands in the prologue. We also know that Iturlade sees a lot of action in this book and where is he? He's in the borderlands guarding against Trollocs and such. So obviously the main military focus of the shadow's forces is overwhelming the borderlands and hopefully destroying the White Tower from there.

 

As for the argument that you don't strike where your enemy is strongest, really? What happened at the end of TGS? The Seanchan attacked the White Tower, considered to be the bastion of strength in Randland. Also if you will recall, during the meeting with her Generals, Yulan the air commander guy I think it was had two maps and battle plans but we were only given information on the attack on the White Tower. The other attack plan the Seanchan have was suspicously kept secret...for now. As also has been mentioned, Rand expects them to attack Illian so obviously that's not what they're going to do. Tuon knows Mat thinks all the evidence points to them attacking Illian as well and she won't attack Illian for this reason alone, not to mention Illian is totally un-important...nobodies there and nobody would care if they attacked Illian. The last thing about this, which Terez mentioned is Tuon wants Mat back and she has enough evidence to believe that she will find him in Caemlyn.

 

The White Tower wasn't at its strongest though. It's at its weakest point of all time. The Tower is separated into at least 4 sizable factions (WT, rebels, unaligned, bonded). They've made no preparation for any attack despite repeated warnings for almost half of the series. Even then the attack wasn't really an full out attack like you guys are suggesting. It was essentially a raid for war materiel (AS for damane) using highly mobile and expendable troops. Now the Seanchan could definitely use Traveling, but we have no indication that they have that ability yet (though assuredly they will. I don't think the Seanchan are going to mobilize that many troops to attack a strong target. Militarily it doesn't sense to throw away troops when you know a much stronger enemy is going to be bearing down on you in the near future.

The Seanchan didn't know the Tower was split. They assumed it was full of hundreds of channelers, not split AND with Rand fully supporting them. That they were split and didn't have his support doesn't matter. The Seanchan were willing to attack regardless.

 

Now if they wanted to attack the BT that's a different matter. The Asha'man can all (mostly) Travel, they have no oaths and are trained as weapons. Yes Rand had to pull out Callandor in TPOD to even the field, but only after the numbers of channelers became about 4 or 5 to 1 in the Seanchan's favour. With it mostly DF's left at the BT (especially if the BA are there), I'd find it highly amusing if the Seanchan attacked there, only to do Rand's dirty work of taking out a lot of potential dreadlords and cop enough damage doing it they to make peace with Rand. Of course that's not how it's going to go down, but it'd be a 'laughter and tears' moment (tears from laughing so much).

[Duskfire]

Sure the Seanchan may have traveling now, but I still dont see why they would jump into Camelyn rather then go to Illian. Sure Rand may have deployed a sizeable army there, but Elayne has all her army in Caemlyn. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers, the Blacktower, Aes Sedai, etc etc. It just doesnt seem like it would be logistically sound to attack such a major force, especially when your own forces have suffered a few recent defeats. As for them attacking the Whitetower - it was a raid. Tuon committed little forces to it, and those forces were meant to well.. raid and then get the heck out. This wont be a raid; this will need to be a full frontal assault where she'll need to dedicate alot of her remaining army and resources to achieving it. And leave herself open of course for Illian and Murandy.

 

Just doesnt seem like something Tuon would do. Thats why I think it'll be the shadow. And even then, I dont think that will happen till the Final Battle.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Have not read the entire thread, so if somebody else has already mentioned this, apologies -

 

Does Fortuona have any idea that Elayne is either of: 1) Aes Sedai; 2) Queen of Andor?

 

I don't think so. Both ladies secured their thrones very recently. Andor is pretty far from Ebou Dar, so it's unlikely that word of Elayne's succession has reached there yet.

 

So, other than a strike at one of Rand's strongpoints, The Empress, may she live forever, really has no reason to attack there. Doesn't mean she won't, just that we have not yet seen anything that she knows that would give her a reason to do so.

[hawkeye31]

 

Does Fortuona have any idea that Elayne is either of: 1) Aes Sedai; 2) Queen of Andor?

 

So, other than a strike at one of Rand's strongpoints, The Empress, may she live forever, really has no reason to attack there. Doesn't mean she won't, just that we have not yet seen anything that she knows that would give her a reason to do so.

 

What other people have been arguing is that Elaida/ Suffa will tell Fortuona, once she has been broken. Personally, I doubt this will happen, though

[Terez]

I seriously doubt gawyn will kill rand, no matter how much i dont like gawyn for being single minded, it just wouldnt make sense. Rand knows Morgase is alive, Gawyn is in the tower, probably he will try to do something to rand (or might keep his word to egwene and not anything), but if rand tells egwene to tell gawyn morgase is alive (since gawyn probably wont come see him even if Rand asks), and proof can be obtained by the simple thing of going to perrin's camp and getting morgase.

That's assuming that 1) Perrin is still in the same place (which is unlikely), 2) Rand has any idea where Perrin is, 3) Morgase is still with Perrin. Gawyn sure as hell isn't going to take his word for it.

 

I doubt their confrontation will be in Tar Valon; I expect Egwene to send Gawyn away. She dreams of Rand confronting her and other women, but no men.

 

if rand thinks of perrin he would see where he is and might recognise where perrin is.

He can hardly ever tell where Perrin and Mat are. He could describe the sword Perrin was camping under, which was the only way Cadsuane could find him, but usually there is not anything so distinctive in the background. He vaguely recognized Caemlyn from seeing Mat there....but if Perrin is engaged in battle outside of Caemlyn, how would Rand have any idea where he was? How would he have any idea Morgase was with him?

 

but say egwene sends gawyn away to assume his duty in andor of first prince.

 

then morgase who is travelling with perrin will eventually end up in camelyn as well, since she would obviously want to see elayne as queen.

Eventually, yes...but absolutely nothing to say that she will get there in time to prevent Gawyn killing Rand.

 

Rand attacked Illian with 24,000 men using only one gateway, four paces by four. He had to do it that way so he could take all the Asha'man in at once to trigger the wards all around the city.

The tactics of which were put together by two Great Captain's and the Saldaean's trained for weeks at.

Yes, but the thing is, Rand had to use only one gateway because of his plan to trigger the wards. The Seanchan won't be limited in that. They could use fifty gateways, which won't require such speed and precision for the people going through them.

 

The Light vs. the Shadow, or the 'Good Light' versus the Seanchan in Caemlyn. I have a feeling whatever goes down won't be so clear cut. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3 way battle either

- the Seanchan vs. 'The good guys', with the Shadow falling upon them from behind whilst they fight, forcing the Seanchan to side with marath'damane to fight Shadowspawn. Pushing Fortuona to make the same revelations that Tylee already has, that the enemy she thinks is her enemy doesn't have to be.

If the Shadow is going to be involved, it almost has to be from the direction of the Black Tower. They won't be able to get enough Shadowspawn through the Ways to take Caemlyn. I agree it could get messy, much like Dumai's Wells was (a more or less three-way battle).

 

As mentioned before in this thread it will be next to impossible for the shadow to get enough trollocs to caemlyn to mount an assault as the nearest waygates are warded so they would have to go by land, which would get noticed. Also in Jasons review (I think) he says that the light will be ready for the last battle, but will be disjointed and massively underprepared. For this to come to fruition a battle at caemlyn would have to be between the Seanchan and 'Good' guys, with our guys gaining something of a close victory.

I agree with your interpretation of Jason's review, but I don't know about the victory. I expect something more like the draw that we saw in Altara. Both Rand and the Seanchan thought they had suffered a huge defeat.

 

That's not even taking into account the wager Mat made with Rahvin - in Tallanvor's hearing - that makes little sense.

Been a long time since I read that scene and most of my books are back in the states, what's the exact wording on that wager?

Mat: Do you serve Morgase and Gaebril loyally?

Tallanvor: I serve Morgase, Thom Grinwell. Her, I serve to the death.

Mat: I will wager this – *gives Gaebril's wash-leather purse a toss* – that Gaebril says the same.

 

And then Mat tells Basel Gill that he has a wager with Rahvin, implies that it has to do with the girls, and gives the stakes to Gill to watch over for him. Mat's news about Gaebril's evil nature led to Gill and Tallanvor meeting up, and to Tallanvor encouraging Morgase to escape. Well, actually, he was trying to encourage her to have Gaebril executed, but he didn't seem to understand how dangerous that would be, despite knowing all the Guards were loyal to Gaebril.

 

Sure the Seanchan may have traveling now, but I still dont see why they would jump into Camelyn rather then go to Illian.

Like I said before - that is what Rand expects. The element of surprise is one of the most important things to have on your side in battle.

 

And leave herself open of course for Illian and Murandy.

Both Illian and Murandy are too weak to threaten her.

 

Have not read the entire thread, so if somebody else has already mentioned this, apologies -

 

Does Fortuona have any idea that Elayne is either of: 1) Aes Sedai; 2) Queen of Andor?

Maybe not, but Beslan knows...and Beslan recently vowed to serve Tuon in truth. Me might do just that.

 

The Empress, may she live forever, really has no reason to attack there. Doesn't mean she won't, just that we have not yet seen anything that she knows that would give her a reason to do so.

I covered this very thoroughly in previous posts.

[Lisa Campbell]

Hey all,

 

Personally I don't think there will be a battle in Caemlyn, well at least not in ToM anyway. But this is an interesting thread/speculaton so here's my two cents:

 

Tuon told Mat that she would like to see Caemlyn and Tar Valon. I know that that doesn't prove anything either way but it might help someone else's arguments.

[Charlz Guybon]

Both Illian and Murandy are too weak to threaten her.

 

Doesn't Rand have over 200,000 troops in Illian?

[mmurray821]

Doesn't Rand have over 200,000 troops in Illian?

 

He has been gathering them all over, but a huge number is in Illian as he stated that he would either have a truce with the Seachan or crush them completely.

[Grape_Ape]

 

Tuon is trying to Consolidate all of Randland under her rule. This is a very good reason to attack their strong points, and exactly why she attacked the strongest point of all - the White Tower.

 

 

No way. The strategy (if you can call it that) of throwing your attack against the strongest point is sheer idiocy by any standard unless you have 1) absolutely no other choice, or 2) you feel comfortable throwing away the lives of your troops, or 3) are using it as a feint.

 

Familiar with the invasion of Normandy? We had no choice and paid a huge price.

 

Alexander specifically NOT trying to take Persia by sea?

 

Why do you think we dropped atomic bombs on Japan instead of invading?

 

I can go on...and on...and on.

 

The Aes Sedai, to Tuon, are animals. To her they were likely not viewed as the strongest point. More likely it was something along the lines of a den of wild dogs needing leashed. Also, there are really no nations close enough to be a quick backup for Tar Valon to call on. A raid just like they attempted made sense.

 

An attack at Andor doesn't make a lick of sense whatsoever. The Seanchan might outnumber them by 2:1, maybe even 3:1. But no general with half a brain is going to leave everything else undefended to make the assault. With as much land as they hold, that would reduce available Seanchan troop levels enough to make it a very bad idea.

 

In addition, if you look at the map, the Seanchan would be carving out a territory that is surrounded on all sides. Unless you think they'll attempt to take the whole of Andor all at once? Tar Valon and the Borderlanders to the north, the other nations to the south, the rest of Andor to the west, Cairhien to the east. Whatever they take they wouldn't be able to hold for very long. So, you hit Andor, have no supply chain behind you for support, lose half your troops to gain a victory, only to lose what you've taken a short time later. Meanwhile, the Dragon is Traveling troops into the cities you left abandoned. All that in order to gain your victory? Not likely.

 

RJ was a soldier. He knows this stuff. Attacking Andor is basically asking to get your ass handed to you. IF we see an Seanchan attack on Andor it will be precisely for the reason somebody else mentioned - to have Rand beat The Nine Moons down enough to bind her as the prophesy says. Still, even that would be an incredible waste of words when so much else needs to be told. And, if RJ made the Seanchan out to be this badass military force I find it extremely difficult to believe he would have them make this huge of a strategic blunder. (Yeah, yeah, Hitler did, but Hitler had more than a few screws loose.)

 

And I'll add this in case anybody starts squawking about Traveling. Let's say they do make the attack and use 500K troops to "ensure" victory. How long would it take to move that many troops through gateways? How many damane would it take to make enough gateways to do it quickly enough to avoid being slaughtered? I doubt there are enough with enough strength. Where do you stage all these troops without anybody noticing? Maybe you could use damane for gateways to resupply. But again, you're talking about huge numbers of people that require tremendous amounts of supplies in order to mount a sustained defense of Caemlyn which would be bound to happen. And now you have an arc that's dragging out chapter after chapter with and one book left to finish the saga. Again, not likely.

[Crossroad]

No way. The strategy of throwing your attack against the strongest point is sheer idiocy by any standard unless you have 1) absolutely no other choice, or 2) you feel comfortable throwing away the lives of your troops, or 3) are using it as a feint.

 

Familiar with the invasion of Normandy? We had no choice and paid a huge price.

 

Alexander specifically NOT trying to take Persia by sea?

 

Why do you think we dropped atomic bombs on Japan instead of invading?

 

I can go on...and on...and on.

 

The Aes Sedai, to Tuon, are animals. To her they were likely not viewed as the strongest point. More likely it was something along the lines of a den of wild dogs needing leashed. Also, there are really no nations close enough to be a quick backup for Tar Valon to call on. A raid just like they attempted made sense.

 

An attack at Andor doesn't make a lick of sense whatsoever. The Seanchan might outnumber them by 2:1, maybe even 3:1. But no general with half a brain is going to leave everything else undefended to make the assault. With as much land as they hold, that would reduce available Seanchan troop levels enough to make it a very bad idea.

 

In addition, if you look at the map, the Seanchan would be carving out a territory that is surrounded on all sides. Unless you think they'll attempt to take the whole of Andor all at once? Tar Valon and the Borderlanders to the north, the other nations to the south, the rest of Andor to the west, Cairhien to the east. Whatever they take they wouldn't be able to hold for very long. So, you hit Andor, have no supply chain behind you for support, lose half your troops to gain a victory, only to lose what you've taken a short time later. Meanwhile, the Dragon is Traveling troops into the cities you left abandoned. All that in order to gain your victory? Not likely.

 

RJ was a soldier. He knows this stuff. Attacking Andor is basically asking to get your ass handed to you. IF we see an Seanchan attack on Andor it will be precisely for the reason somebody else mentioned - to have Rand beat The Nine Moons down enough to bind her as the prophesy says. Still, even that would be an incredible waste of words when so much else needs to be told. And, if RJ made the Seanchan out to be this badass military force I find it extremely difficult to believe he would have them make this huge of a strategic blunder. (Yeah, yeah, Hitler did, but Hitler had more than a few screws loose.)

 

I agree with all of what u say here, its more than likely the Seanchan will consolidate what they have now, it will be interesting the next meeting between Rand and Fortuona. Know doubt everyone will be looking forward to that meeting. Caemlyn is safe from the Seanchan.

[Duskfire]

Yup, completely agree Grape Ape. Not only that, but going by Tuons thoughts and comments when she authorised the attack on the Whitetower, she expects Rand to hit back. It makes zero sense for her to attack Andor. Illian is where she would go if she had to, but even then I can see Tuon consolidating her forces. Based on Egwenes dreams and so forth, another attack on the Whitetower seems possible, but even that is unlikely, especially now.

[Terez]

I already explained extensively the reasons why it's logical for her to attack Caemlyn. The Seanchan numbers are great enough that she wouldn't have to leave herself undefended to pull it off - far from it - and the weaker nations in between would fall rather easily if she managed to seize Caemlyn (Murandy and Ghealdan). There are plenty of reasons for her to attack there, Mat not least among them.

[Suttree]

Tuon obviously though of Tar Valon as a strong point and that influenced her decision. A raid against the White Tower and a full scale invasion of Caemlyn are two very different things however.

[Grape_Ape]

I already explained extensively the reasons why it's logical for her to attack Caemlyn. The Seanchan numbers are great enough that she wouldn't have to leave herself undefended to pull it off - far from it - and the weaker nations in between would fall rather easily if she managed to seize Caemlyn (Murandy and Ghealdan). There are plenty of reasons for her to attack there, Mat not least among them.

 

I don't disagree with your claim that she has reasons. But wanting to do it and taking the risk are two different things. If her aim is to bring all of Randland to heel, the logical attack would be at Illian. Taking some of the nations to the utmost north and south of Randland, with the Mounts of Mist to protect her middle, would allow her a legit shot at collapsing the central nations. And I'm not saying she'll do that. There aren't enough books left! I think the most likely thing is we get another meeting with Light Rand and he cedes Illian to her - "The south and west..."

 

Anyway, not Andor regardless of how much she might want to - because the cost of such a strategy, despite what you believe, would be extremely high. You're also taking Turen(sp?) at his word that there are that many troops. He was talking to Ituralde. Would it not occur to you to make that bluff to a general who is confounding you? Even if it was only a slim hope of getting him to give up? And I'll ask again, how many damane for that many gateways at once? Hm?

 

You're also not considering (or are not aware of) the difference in difficulty of holding, then striking out from, a hill surrounded by the enemy versus a strategy of taking nations that would allow for (semi)encirclement of the Dragon's forces.

 

So, I'll explain - only slightly less extensively this time - IF she attacks it will be to serve as a literary vehicle through which Rand "binds" her. And in that case, it WILL be a strategic blunder on par with Hitler's. It's not a good strategy, Terez. Not by the measure of anything done in war, which was something RJ was intimately familiar with.

 

 

@Suttree. Yes strong but not strong enough to send anything more than what amounted to a large raiding force, though a rather nasty one. And I'm not saying you don't hit strong points. I'm saying you don't break your forces on THE strongest point.

[Sharaman]

Whatever Fortuona (MSLF) does will be predicated by her need to fulfil prophesy by fighting T'Geddon.

The Seanchan need a clear route to the Borderlands and Caemlyn is on route.

What the Shadow does might involve bringing forces South. Again, that involves going through Caemlyn.

Caemlyn is a transport nexus. Even if you have Travel, you need warehouses for food, stabling for spare horses, barracks for reserve troops. That's where Caemlyn is critical.

[redmid17]

I'm not really grasping why people refuse to believe that the Seanchan won't attack Caemlyn. Do you think the Seanchan gaining Traveling wasn't for a reason? The Seanchan needed Traveling so they could attack Caemlyn.

 

We've already seen what the shadow's forces are up to with the beginning of the invasion of the borderlands in the prologue. We also know that Iturlade sees a lot of action in this book and where is he? He's in the borderlands guarding against Trollocs and such. So obviously the main military focus of the shadow's forces is overwhelming the borderlands and hopefully destroying the White Tower from there.

 

As for the argument that you don't strike where your enemy is strongest, really? What happened at the end of TGS? The Seanchan attacked the White Tower, considered to be the bastion of strength in Randland. Also if you will recall, during the meeting with her Generals, Yulan the air commander guy I think it was had two maps and battle plans but we were only given information on the attack on the White Tower. The other attack plan the Seanchan have was suspicously kept secret...for now. As also has been mentioned, Rand expects them to attack Illian so obviously that's not what they're going to do. Tuon knows Mat thinks all the evidence points to them attacking Illian as well and she won't attack Illian for this reason alone, not to mention Illian is totally un-important...nobodies there and nobody would care if they attacked Illian. The last thing about this, which Terez mentioned is Tuon wants Mat back and she has enough evidence to believe that she will find him in Caemlyn.

 

The White Tower wasn't at its strongest though. It's at its weakest point of all time. The Tower is separated into at least 4 sizable factions (WT, rebels, unaligned, bonded). They've made no preparation for any attack despite repeated warnings for almost half of the series. Even then the attack wasn't really an full out attack like you guys are suggesting. It was essentially a raid for war materiel (AS for damane) using highly mobile and expendable troops. Now the Seanchan could definitely use Traveling, but we have no indication that they have that ability yet (though assuredly they will. I don't think the Seanchan are going to mobilize that many troops to attack a strong target. Militarily it doesn't sense to throw away troops when you know a much stronger enemy is going to be bearing down on you in the near future.

The Seanchan didn't know the Tower was split. They assumed it was full of hundreds of channelers, not split AND with Rand fully supporting them. That they were split and didn't have his support doesn't matter. The Seanchan were willing to attack regardless.

 

Now if they wanted to attack the BT that's a different matter. The Asha'man can all (mostly) Travel, they have no oaths and are trained as weapons. Yes Rand had to pull out Callandor in TPOD to even the field, but only after the numbers of channelers became about 4 or 5 to 1 in the Seanchan's favour. With it mostly DF's left at the BT (especially if the BA are there), I'd find it highly amusing if the Seanchan attacked there, only to do Rand's dirty work of taking out a lot of potential dreadlords and cop enough damage doing it they to make peace with Rand. Of course that's not how it's going to go down, but it'd be a 'laughter and tears' moment (tears from laughing so much).

 

 

You're still missing literally the entire point. The Seanchan "attack" was a raid, nothing more. They might as well have been stealing guns from the local armoury. They won't attack Caemlyn because the risks don't outweight the benefits now that they have traveling and still have Tarmon Gaidon bearing down on them. Even Rand says the Seanchan aren't fools. No one would commit that many troops to attack a non-vital target when you have a much, much, much more dangerous enemy waiting in the wings.

[Grape_Ape]

Whatever Fortuona (MSLF) does will be predicated by her need to fulfil prophesy by fighting T'Geddon.

The Seanchan need a clear route to the Borderlands and Caemlyn is on route.

What the Shadow does might involve bringing forces South. Again, that involves going through Caemlyn.

Caemlyn is a transport nexus. Even if you have Travel, you need warehouses for food, stabling for spare horses, barracks for reserve troops. That's where Caemlyn is critical.

 

Caemlyn itself isn't critical. Andor as a whole is critical as far as needing space to pass an army through. Even Morgase couldn't maintain the west from Caemlyn and she wasn't at war with anybody.

[Majsju]

I called caemlyn as a major battle over a decade ago, as a part of my greater theory of how TG will be played out. Granted, new info like shadowspawn not being able to Travel has caused a bit of trouble for that theory, but I still think it will play a part.

 

[Duskfire]

I already explained extensively the reasons why it's logical for her to attack Caemlyn. The Seanchan numbers are great enough that she wouldn't have to leave herself undefended to pull it off - far from it - and the weaker nations in between would fall rather easily if she managed to seize Caemlyn (Murandy and Ghealdan). There are plenty of reasons for her to attack there, Mat not least among them.

 

They arent all that great anymore though. They are no longer receiving reinforcements from the mainland and they just had two forces decimated by Mat and Rodel. Granted it is still a substanial number of troops, but is it a big enough number to invade Andor and also hold of Rands incredibly large army? Not to mention they would know by now the Blacktower is there. So they will have to contend with a hundred thousand + troops, a group of trained killing machine male channelers, as well as Rand or anyone else potentially Travelling in as well once the attack is learnt of. And you can be sure Rand would if he heard they were attacking Camelyn. Not to mention Egwene.

 

Not to mention if the Seanchan did take it, what then? They are surrounded on all sides by enemies. It would be impossible to hold it.

 

So yeah, nothing you have said has convinced me the Seanchan will attack Camelyn. Yes Tuon has reasons for going there, no one is denying that. But I cant see Tuon wanting Mat back badly enough to decimate her current forces.

[Drewshaw]

I think the seanchan will be in a truce with randlanders by the end of this book. TG is likely to be everywhere with Camelyn as an epicenter.

[Bob T Dwarf]

I called caemlyn as a major battle over a decade ago, as a part of my greater theory of how TG will be played out. Granted, new info like shadowspawn not being able to Travel has caused a bit of trouble for that theory, but I still think it will play a part.

 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Caemlyn will not be a major battleground.

 

Our contention is that it will not be a major battleground between the Empress and Rand.

 

As several have pointed out, the Ever Victorious Army has had a couple of very costly setbacks lately ( Mat and Ituralde ). The raid on Tar Valon incurred large casualties, as well. ( Egwene, Bryne, Gawyn, Siuan, etal ). The Homeland is in chaos and it's very unlikely any reinforcements are in the pipeline.

 

So, where is the Empress going to get her attack force? For another raid, because as several have pointed out, she cannot sustain a seige? Nor, even if she could overrun Elayne's defenses ( which now happen to include the Band of the Red Hand and a certain Prince of Ravens who would most likely be able to countermand the attackers orders ), does she have the strategic depth to hold whatever she might take in Andor.

 

There's no real reward to balance all that risk.

 

IF Chapter three is Rand's meeting with Egwene, then it seems likely that some kind of Truce/Alliance will be in the works between the Dragon and the Empress, short circuiting any possible Seanchan attempt at taking Caemlyn, anyway.

[maradon]

I called caemlyn as a major battle over a decade ago, as a part of my greater theory of how TG will be played out. Granted, new info like shadowspawn not being able to Travel has caused a bit of trouble for that theory, but I still think it will play a part.

 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Caemlyn will not be a major battleground.

 

Our contention is that it will not be a major battleground between the Empress and Rand.

 

As several have pointed out, the Ever Victorious Army has had a couple of very costly setbacks lately ( Mat and Ituralde ). The raid on Tar Valon incurred large casualties, as well. ( Egwene, Bryne, Gawyn, Siuan, etal ). The Homeland is in chaos and it's very unlikely any reinforcements are in the pipeline.

 

So, where is the Empress going to get her attack force? For another raid, because as several have pointed out, she cannot sustain a seige? Nor, even if she could overrun Elayne's defenses ( which now happen to include the Band of the Red Hand and a certain Prince of Ravens who would most likely be able to countermand the attackers orders ), does she have the strategic depth to hold whatever she might take in Andor.

 

There's no real reward to balance all that risk.

 

IF Chapter three is Rand's meeting with Egwene, then it seems likely that some kind of Truce/Alliance will be in the works between the Dragon and the Empress, short circuiting any possible Seanchan attempt at taking Caemlyn, anyway.

 

The attack on the WT was actually very successful by their expectations, they even stayed longer than they had planned to as the AS were so poorly organised.

 

I personally think there is quite a large chance of the Seanchan attacking Caemlyn, we have seen accounts from Rand and Egwene of Seanchan attacks on Caemlyn, both ending in Rands death. The main problem to the theory though is the transport of troops, as I do not think they will be able to learn travelling all that quickly, although they do have all the Shaido WO's now as well I suppose.

 

As to the question of numbers, Ituralde was facing 300,000, Matt let quite a large force that were on the border of Murandy move past him in KoD, and there are also all the garrison forces that the Seanchan can muster. Their forces are highly experienced compared to any Andoran army, and outnumber the only experienced army (tBotRH) severely.

 

One final point would be that we heard from Jason that the Light will be in a bad way by the end of the book, that suggests to me as though they somehow hamstring themselves in this book.

[Bob T Dwarf]

One final point would be that we heard from Jason that the Light will be in a bad way by the end of the book, that suggests to me as though they somehow hamstring themselves in this book.

 

Well, of course they do! We wouldn't have what will end up being a fourteen book series if everybody on both sides didn't do the maximally stupid thing at every possible opportunity.

 

The series is only possible because they do not yet have gunpowder projectile weapons. If they did, everybody would have shot both of their feet off by this point. As is, even though they're the most competent army we've seen, I expect the Band of the Red Hand to use their repeating crossbows to nail their feet to the ground and become immobile statues any moment now.

 

By the time this book ends, if Sanderson has done his job right, things will look so bad that we're all going to have a hard time figuring out how the Light can possibly win.

 

This is "The Empire Strikes Back" volume after all. All that's left is "The Return of the Jedi."