[DPR Mafia] Suras 4 - Mafia wins!

[Red2111]

3rd are the mysterious Manipulators

 

Amber liquid is poured into the bottom fourth of each glass, and as soon as 10 are filled, hand reach in to take one.

 

“To our impending victory! As none of these fools even begins to suspect what is actually happening, I see little to stand in our way!”

 

Nods of assent are the only response as each glass is drained.

 

Then, one by one, each member left the room and went forth into the night to take their place in the scheme.

 

there is alot of information to be gleamed off this one post.

 

apparently there are 10 of them, withing each faction (Bova, Beva & Undecided)  now i'm unsure if this is 10 out of 31 players; or 10 out of 50 total captains.

 

 

ths woudl be important to learn because then we can figure how many manipulators were actually dealing with.  i'd rather error on the side of caution and say its 10 out of 31.  

 

the other question is, are these manipulators able to talk on a QT together to conspire, or are they given orders via Wes and just working seperatly toward an equal goal.

 

 

this also tells us, they're manipulating both sides of the rebellion.  these are mostlikely the people who made sure Raisa was sent up, who knew the Minister knew there was a Challenge on foot, who stirred the rebellion so the hive was about to explode with anger and used the Ministers trap to make sure their plan went accordingly.

 

imo, this means that one of the canidates is their puppet.

 

it also suggests that if there are seperate groups (Mason/Mafia or 2 Mafia teams) both will have dissenters among their numbers to direct the vote

[Red2111]

and lastly the Unknowns

 

“Who would have ever seen that coming? The old man had the Beva Perrada ready to go the whole time. He’s a cagey one, the Nineteenth is. There’s a reason his hair is gray…”

 

“Too true, that. It’s easy to forget the Neitaren assault, or the Sendekian kidnapping. Or even that mess up at Pella Kroll, but the old bastard has seen us through more than just about any other. I’ll bet he’s a got a trick or two up his sleeve yet.”

 

the two bolded sections caught my eyes.  this implys that the Minister & the 19th are one in the same.

 

 

i'm unsure who to place this with though.  it's an overheard conversation ofcourse; but from what faction?  is it from the Manipulators or from Bova supporters?  depending on which side, it implicates different things.

 

[JenLenaMom]

The Nineteenth and the Minister are the same. He's the 19th Minister. Wes explained all that in one of the first posts.

[Alys Kinch]

i'm honestly stumped by the motives behind his declinning to challenge Bova, instead appointing a younge and unknown Captian as his replacement.

He was chosing his sucessor. He doesn't have to fight them that way. It averts civil war through vote over blood bath. Theoretically. You know. It's civilized. :D

 

and it seems like Raisa's imprisonment is being used to bring emotion into the equation and light a fire under the movement.

Agreed. Bring in someone liked by all and you can play any side of the fence.

 

Of course there is the option, given planted secrets, that the minister was setting someone up and his own got caught up on accident.

[Talya]

I would say the Bova Peradda ones.

 

We know that the Minister is the nineteenth one, is says on the opening post..or second one.

 

The only person it could be is from the Bova guy. If he isn't mafia then we know that Beva is mafia and why would he say that about himself, it doesn't make sense. If Bova was mafia he just wasn't expecting the Minister to do that and thought he would be going up against him, not this new Beva.

 

I hope that makes sense.

[Alys Kinch]

I'm not sure. They seem amused and surprised by the outcome of events. They clearly admire the Minister, but also knew about the plot. The Minister was supposed to stand against them, so they could be manipulators or they could be the plotting captains.

[Talya]

I see what you mean, yeah they could be the mafia captains talking amongst themselves. I thought the lasr line came from Bova, but it may not have been.

 

In that case it could also be from Townie Captains and it was thrown in there to confuse us!

[Red2111]

^ again agreed with both Alys and Tayla.  they do appear to be amused or even gloating.  i'm changing my original thoughts then and i'm going to say that last bit came from the Beva support side.  however we need to find out if these are manipulators or true supporters of the Beva. 

 

"Who would have ever seen that coming? The old man had the Beva Perrada ready to go the whole time. He’s a cagey one, the Nineteenth is. There’s a reason his hair is gray…”

 

so they're either supporters realy impressed with the Ministers foresight to have the Beva already picked and waiting; or their manipulators amused at the antics of the one their manipulating, they do refer to him as "cagey". 

 

“Too true, that. It’s easy to forget the Neitaren assault, or the Sendekian kidnapping. Or even that mess up at Pella Kroll, but the old bastard has seen us through more than just about any other. I’ll bet he’s a got a trick or two up his sleeve yet.”

 

then they bring up old victories the Minister has had; are they bragging about it to boost confidence in the Minister and his choices, or do they bring this up, along with the bit about "trick up his sleeve yet" as a reminder that maybe the Minister isn't the fool they thought him and will take a delicate touch to manipulate.

 

To your first post...

 

The last bit could also so be that when you know there is a mutiny brewing, you know that your days are numbered. After things like this it is hard to pull back from it, plus by adding a new person he choose, means that he is talking control pof the situation by offering someone new to the set up. The Bova was expecting to go against him. With the dissent he had heard, he may have felt it would hard to win, so chose his successor and surprising the opposition. It happens in normal politics!

 

your argument is true enough though, especially if he wants out of politics, and theres no arguement that Raisa's life appears to be his greatest focus in this.  in the last bit, where he advises people to vote with their hearts and talks about how he'd never seen the politics this bad, it almost seems to me like he's a bit tiered of it all and is using this as a way to bow out gracefully.

 

i do see what your saying and agree fully, that by choosing someone in his place it will throw the opponent off because they've only prepared to debate the Minister. its a very well thought out tactic.

 

one thing we have to remember is there's a 3rd unknown party manipulating things and pulling the strings; we can't let events overshadow this fact. we don't know if the Minister is part of that conspiracy or not; if he is then most likely the Beva is just someone who will be an easy puppet to control as well as being the better option for Raisa to live since he's drawn himself out of the race.  it all depends on the motives of this 3rd party, which we have yet to find out.

 

the second post..

 

It could be that someone close to the Minister knew of this information plant and set him a Raisa up to set up someone claiming Bova against him.

 

It maybe:

 

Anger; he thought he was in control, planting that information, and it backfired on him

Pity: because Raisa was used in this way

 

thats a good option and good thinking as well.  it will all boil down to whether we think the Minister is a pawn in all this or one of the manipulators.

 

for this 3rd party to pull all this off and achieve their goal, they would either have to have the main people on their side (ie: Bova, Beva and/or Minister) or people in place that can influence the main figure heads and keep watch on their activities.

 

man, talk about espionage!!  my brain hurts lmao

 

 

now it begs the question of Tayla's guess that both Beva & Bova are town; that both are fighting for the same thing and the undecided or unkown 1/3 are pulling the strings.

 

I don't thik Bova and Beva are town, I think their supporters are as are the undecided, but interspersed with those will be the mafia, who know which out of Bova and Beva is the mafia head.

 

Also the ballot will be in secret, so will have no idea how each of us vote.

 

But I agree he uses those 3 points both times, and Raisa as the emotion behind it all. Now he could feel she is wronged in this, or set her up and using the situation!

 

okay i think i see where you're coming from now. :)

 

The Nineteenth and the Minister are the same. He's the 19th Minister. Wes explained all that in one of the first posts.

 

that i totally missed, but it explains alot :)  thanks JLM

 

 

i'm honestly stumped by the motives behind his declinning to challenge Bova, instead appointing a younge and unknown Captian as his replacement.

He was chosing his sucessor. He doesn't have to fight them that way. It averts civil war through vote over blood bath. Theoretically. You know. It's civilized. :D

 

and it seems like Raisa's imprisonment is being used to bring emotion into the equation and light a fire under the movement.

Agreed. Bring in someone liked by all and you can play any side of the fence.

 

Of course there is the option, given planted secrets, that the minister was setting someone up and his own got caught up on accident.

 

 

agreed on all 3 points

 

 

[mnwhiterose]

Ah, political games. What have you gotten me into, Wes? too much thinking....too little rum.

[Hybrid]

Something else to keep in mind...

 

DPR games tend to have something (cult, mafia recruit, moral dilemma, etc.) that changes players' alignment.  I guess that further invalidates any type of organized finding spree early in the game.

[DPR]

 

Raisa dreams, and in that dream, her thoughts are clouded.

 

She knows the feeling of hot blood on her hands, that much she remembers clearly.

 

But the dying face of her victim keeps changing. At first it is the Minister, and she throws a hand over the gash along his throat to try and stem the flow. But she is too late, and as his eyes glass over, she is distraught…

 

The face changes.

 

It is her Captain, the one who gave her the information, and Raisa’s knife is dull. The Captain laughs as the blade barely breaks the skin and Raisa cannot reach that tender vein…

 

The face changes again.

 

It is her own. She pauses, reluctant to bring the blade down not because she wouldn’t give her own life to protect those whom she is sworn too, but because of the softly glowing stone that covers her throat…

 

With a gasp, Raisa wakes and reaches out with her senses.

 

Bonestone. Someone is using it on her, and they are close.

 

Her memory instantly goes back to that night, when she felt them watching her. It was the same feeling she had now, only this time they were in her dreams.

 

Unable to defend herself, Raisa slowly sits down and looks out at the coming dawn. At least the night is over.

 

***

 

Across the Dragon’s Back Docks, the cry of warning is heard. Within moments

All hands aboard one of the ships know that their Captain has been murdered.

 

BELA THEDO, TOWN, HAS BEEN KILLED.

 

“Why kill the Captain? She had nothin’ to do with any of this…”

“Maybe that’s why, my friend. Maybe it is better to have something to do with this. Sometimes we must take sides, and this looks to be one of those times. Keep your eyes and ears open, and sleep with your blade in your hand.”

 

The sailor snorted.

 

“I always do, my friend. I always do.”

 

IT IS NOW DAY 2. YOU HAVE 48 HOURS TO VOTE ANOTHER PLAYER TO LYNCH. IF A MAJORITY VOTE IS NOT REACHED, THE PLAYER WITH THE MOST VOTES WILL BE LYNCHED.

 

[Guest dragonsworn1991]

Checking in, and voting [glow=red,2,300]lily[/glow] I hav to go for now, but I will quote the reasoning when I get back.

[LilyElizabeth]

I love you, too, Bro. Can't wait to hear it.

[Red2111]

Something else to keep in mind...

 

DPR games tend to have something (cult, mafia recruit, moral dilemma, etc.) that changes players' alignment.  I guess that further invalidates any type of organized finding spree early in the game.

 

*head desk*  now my brain really hurts. 

 

 

 

okay well that last scene clears up a bit of the confusion then.

 

Minister gave the info to Raisa's Capitan; who in turn fed her the information.  one thing caught my attention

 

It is her Captain, the one who gave her the information, and Raisa’s knife is dull. The Captain laugh’s as the blade barely breaks the skin and Raisa cannot reach that tender vein…

 

notice her reaction to the Capitan, as well as his reaction to Raisa attempting to kill him.  she wants to kill him, and is disappointed she hasn't succeeded.  while he laughs at her.

 

this tells use her perception of her Capitan; perhaps she feels he set her up?  being that it's a dream, we can't really use it to judge the Capitan though seeing as her perception might be flawed.  it's worth noting.

 

 

 

 

[WWWwombat]

The Minister didn't plant the info.  Someone told Raisa that the man she killed was selling information, which was true; he was selling information at the Minister's orders.  I suspect those amber liquid drinkers are involved somehow.

[Red2111]

ah, so that would mean that it's a good possibility Raisa's Capitan is one of the Manipulators, seeing as he's the one who told her about Handal selling information.

 

 

 

 

[WWWwombat]

Maybe.

[Verbal32]

too much thinking....too little rum.

 

Amen, sista.

 

 

Something else to keep in mind...

 

DPR games tend to have something (cult, mafia recruit, moral dilemma, etc.) that changes players' alignment.  I guess that further invalidates any type of organized finding spree early in the game.

 

Mmmmhmmmm.  Definitely a control against lucky Finders, and right up Wes' alley.  If he has an alley.  You do have an alley, right?  :-\

 

 

After about 3 reads of this thread, I'd have to go with Lily as being most suspicious to me.  Why?  Mostly her tiff with Pandy.  She put pressure on him (perfectly fine), and he responded pretty pointedly (perfectly fine), but then she did what.....just changed tracks?  All of a sudden no longer pressuring Pandy?  She can't "out-argue" him, and so walks away?  Sounds a bit like what mafia do when a townie refutes their argument rather well.  Back down before they get found out.  All her subsequent posts appear to be careful, pro-town, and not going against the grain.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Lily[/glow]

[WWWwombat]

Either that or she poked him, got a town read, and decided to move on.

[LilyElizabeth]

What Wombat said. Come to think of it, that's what I said.

 

[Barmacral]

What Wombat said. Come to think of it, that's what I said.

 

 

This is true. [glow=red,2,300]Vote: Verbal[/glow] for selective reading.

 

I'm very curious to see what DS has to say though.

[Verbal32]

What Wombat said. Come to think of it, that's what I said.

 

 

That's what she....eh, nevermind.  ;D

 

 

 

What Wombat said. Come to think of it, that's what I said.

 

 

This is true. [glow=red,2,300]Vote: Verbal[/glow] for selective reading.

 

I'm very curious to see what DS has to say though.

 

Ha.  Selective reading?  It was the main tiff of the early game thus far.  Other than game mechanics speculation, it was something that stood out.  You disagree?  If so, then what would you say is the focus I should be using to "scumhunt"?

[Talya]

She only has a night viewing, wombat. So that wouldn't be the case. but it could just mean, she got answers back that satisfied her...it happens sometimes, lol.

 

Red, I agree, she definately wanted to kill her Captain, but it could be that he is a supporter of the Mafia one and he was manipulated as well. If you are going to manipulate do it from a distance, that may well have been too close. She could have easily told the Minister who had given her the info to someone.

 

Thank you Womabt, it was me that said planted info, but he did allow the information to be passed on, I did think he had given the guy some info, which is why I refered to it as Planted!

 

As for Bela, she hasn't said too much so far and would have made an easy Mafia kill with little information!

 

EDIT for the new posts: So lily you are saying that you had a day viewing after Wes said that they were night actions ?

[Barmacral]

Ha.  Selective reading?  It was the main tiff of the early game thus far.  Other than game mechanics speculation, it was something that stood out.  You disagree?  If so, then what would you say is the focus I should be using to "scumhunt"?

 

The main 'tiff' (hehe, such a funny word (tifftifftiff!)) of the game also included Adella, and there are other people who have been around and debating things. Personally, my prime candidate for a lynch is Lord of 13, as he has yet to do anything but bandwagon for reasons "that others have already said" and nothing more.

 

There are other options out there, that don't require ignoring the main reason that somebody did something.

[LilyElizabeth]

No, Talya, if that's what Wombat said then I misunderstood. I simply get a town read on Pandy and I often catch him when he's scum. I could be wrong, but I'm satisfied for now.