[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[WWWwombat]

Size, bold, and red mine.

[Kivam]

I viewed FDM last night.  She's not the arsonist.  Sorry, scum, you need to keep me alive a bit longer.

 

[Lavinya]

Family visiting today, going to be scarce. Will check back in about 8 hours!

[LilyElizabeth]

*eyes the pole wistfully* Maybe tonight...

 

Thanks, Kiv, you made me laugh so hard!  :-*

 

I really didn't buy Alys' claims. I was looking at her as mid-range on my suspect list. Wes, what a role! Kudos to you.

 

So, do we want to go with what Wombat says she meant? I need to think about this, and some discussion would help, for sure.

 

 

[Far Dareis Mai]

Though I know it may sound biased, I honestly think that Alys was being merely emphatic to Tigs on her use of the word far. I certainly don't blame you for coming to this conclusion, considering her crypticness...but really since she had no idea she was going to be NK'd this night, it seems silly that she would be that vague when she hasn't beaten around the bush for any of the other people she has suspected.

 

For myself, I still find Lily the most suspicious. She comes off as all innocent, but I've seen this woman in all her deviousness on a mafia game I ran, and she's probably keeping better notes than DPR. :P

 

Same with Lavinya. I used to play mafia games with her on the old WTdiv boards years ago, and she was incredibly shrewd. I feel like she's acting like she is less skilled at this game than I've seen her be.

 

Yes, I realize that this information is incredibly meta, and I HATE metagaming.

 

But I don't have the time tonight to go through and give particular evidence, because I've probably had one of the worst days of my life...I will start casing people tomorrow. If you newbs don't know what that is...well, you'll find out soon enough. :)

[Kivam]

*eyes the pole wistfully* Maybe tonight...

 

Thanks, Kiv, you made me laugh so hard!  :-*

 

I really didn't buy Alys' claims. I was looking at her as mid-range on my suspect list. Wes, what a role! Kudos to you.

 

So, do we want to go with what Wombat says she meant? I need to think about this, and some discussion would help, for sure.

 

 

 

For whatever it's worth, I don't think Wombat is picking up Alys' whole message.  FDM is one of the few people in this game who I'm certain is innocent.  My only concern, entering last night, was that she was the arsonist.  Now that I know she is not the arsonist, I won't be voting for her.

 

Though I know it may sound biased, I honestly think that Alys was being merely emphatic to Tigs on her use of the word far. I certainly don't blame you for coming to this conclusion, considering her crypticness...but really since she had no idea she was going to be NK'd this night, it seems silly that she would be that vague when she hasn't beaten around the bush for any of the other people she has suspected.

 

For myself, I still find Lily the most suspicious. She comes off as all innocent, but I've seen this woman in all her deviousness on a mafia game I ran, and she's probably keeping better notes than DPR. :P

 

Funny, Far - Lily is right up there with you on my innocent-meter.  She's made some mistakes this game - not trusting Alys, for one . . . based on her play I was as sure as possible for a townie who hadn't viewed her that Alys was clean - but nothing is striking me as scum.

 

Same with Lavinya. I used to play mafia games with her on the old WTdiv boards years ago, and she was incredibly shrewd. I feel like she's acting like she is less skilled at this game than I've seen her be.

 

Yes, I realize that this information is incredibly meta, and I HATE metagaming.

 

No, this is one of those times where its worthwhile.  Lavinya's been pinging my radar for a while - like I said, she and Dae are probably my top two.  Could you make them your first cases?

 

But I don't have the time tonight to go through and give particular evidence, because I've probably had one of the worst days of my life...I will start casing people tomorrow. If you newbs don't know what that is...well, you'll find out soon enough. :)

 

Guys, I suggest you brace yourselves - Heidi's cases are no joke  ;D

[Tigraine]

BAH!

 

Okay guys, It was the bald headed man without a head that chews tobacco!  :-\

 

GO TOWN!

[Kivam]

All of Lavinya's posts.  No content/spam/intro posts are in red - you can skip them if you'd like.  Game content posts are in black, but I'll highlight anything I believe is notable in blue:

 

Just checking in so you know I'm still playing! Won't be posting any more today unless by some miracle I can escape guests and sneak on line...don't like my chances. Happy Australia Day, any other Aussies out there! I'll be back into the swing of things tomorrow for me and ready to tear apart your posts for tell-tale symptoms of lies and scum and...stuff. :D

 

Pandy asks "real life day or game day" and Lavinya replies

 

err...Real life day lol. As much fun as it would be to still be highly intoxicated for that long I don't like my chances. So back in like, 18 hours or so :)

 

Then, she's back

 

Holy Cow but you people can talk! lol. Well I'm back and only mildly hungover from the Australia Day festivities and still trying to make sense of everything. I'm not 100% convinced of anyone's guilt yet, though there are suspicions lurking in my mind. I'll be watching, very closely, and posting my gut feelings for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure as it may be). :)

 

This is interesting to me, because (and I'm saying this before completing the reread) I don't think Lavinya ever followed through on this.  Did she ever post any thoughts/feelings/suspicions?  What were the "suspicions lurking in her mind"?

 

Also, note the "trying to make sense of everything, not 100% convinced" language.  It's Day 1, page 8, nobody would be "100% convinced" of anything at this point.  Nobody would even think of it.  But she's making a point of saying "I don't know what's going on - I'm unsure".  Why?

 

As I said earlier on this thread, this is classic scum behavior; its what happens when a scum tries too hard to hide the fact that they do know what's going on, and know exactly who's guilty.  They have to fake not knowing, and often they protest too much.  Lets see if this becomes a pattern.

 

A bit later:

 

I don't like thinking too much. That's what I don't like. Wrong game to be in, eh? I've also never played with the vast majority of you guys, so I don't know how you 'normally' play. All I can do is sit and watch and hopefully pick something up between the spamming, reminiscing, and accusations ;)

 

Fairly standard post; a hint of "I don't know what's what" signaling, but not too in your face.  Would not stand out to me if it wasn't part of a pattern.

 

Pandy picks up on this right away, btw - immediate reaction is "I don't like Ms. I'll sit back and hope I pick something up" and votes Lavinya

 

Her reaction:

 

I'm not trying to lay low anywhere - just getting my head around these massive speculation posts that I'm not used to. Everyone is suspicious - whether extremely vocal or quiet. Those being overly vocal could well be using it as a deliberate distraction from the common theory that the quiet ones are the mafia trying to lay low. *shrugs* I'm just thinking, reading, thinking, breaking my brain trying to think mainly lol. Call it an excuse if you will, but playing mafia with a bunch of people who are essentially strangers is very different from playing with people you've chatted/interacted with often. I normally like to lead a day one bandwagon, often I did this goodnaturedly against a friend, whether I was mafia or not. Obviously, I can't do things quite like that with a different bunch of people. So I'm thinking. Smiley

 

Again - I don't know what's happening, I'm just thinking about it.

 

Now, she votes:

 

Always a lot of posts while I'm sleeping...I see a lot of words but not a whole lot of substance. My thinking is that mafia/scum should be more scared of the role reveal than innocents, especially if we were to do as Kivam suggested and claim roles in random order. Claiming the wrong role and doubling up is always a big risk for mafia. So, in one part of my mind I'm thinking those that oppose it the loudest are probably scummy. BUT, I also think it's terrifying for townies with good roles ie doc/finder. Because, unless they want to paint themselves target red and white, they have to lie and have the same risk. Can you imagine, as the finder, claiming to be double voter, along with a mafia member, and being the one lynched?? Not cool!

 

That being said, I've never been afraid of the role reveal, no more than necessary anyway. I do wonder about your reveal pandy, and how you were suspicious of me merely for being less vocal as some but then do what looks to be a rather crazy move with your reveal.

 

I'm thinking, if Kivam really was trying to get lynched, he could do it much easier than by trying something obvious, which this role reveal seems to be to me. Mafia, in my opinion, do not ask for role reveals with any true intention of participating. Maybe only to have some unwitting townie reveal themselves. Which maybe, just maybe he was doing. I don't know. My brain wasn't built brilliantly like Sirayn's, and boy did she string me along a time or two (such happy memories! XD)...but for now I'm going with what little I have, and I'm going to vote [glow=red,2,300]Kivam[/glow]

 

Mafia don't want role reveals . . . vote the guy who pushed a role reveal.  Odd, to say the least.

 

Also, note the continued signaling: I'm not brilliant like Sirayn, going with what little I have = "look, guys, I'm working without information, just like a townie would be"

 

After being called on it, her response:

 

I never said my logic was sound! :D

 

OK, more to come

 

 

[Kivam]

Picking up where I left off:

 

I should have said more I suppose...I am struggling to get my head around half these posts, let alone make big deep deciphering posts of my own. The contradiction you see shows well just how over my head I think I am :)

 

Not only is this continued signaling, but from FDM's description of Lavinya, Lavinya isn't over her head at all in this game.

 

Wombat tells her the "confused act" makes her seem scummy, and she replies

 

lol act???? In my conceit I admit I am no total ditz, but I know when I'm swimming in deep water and can't see the bottom :P

 

continued signaling,  Its almost a shock to see her post without it.

 

I don't think Kivam is innocent. I think this mass reveal idea was intended to make him look innocent. Especially offering to go first. Anyone could easily claim his role afterwards, and declare him a liar. It's bold and risky, if he is mafia...but perhaps we will look at it and say, surely if he was mafia he wouldn't have gone first! So, believing him to be very very clever, I think he is guilty and using such a move to instead shift suspicion to anyone who really doesn't want to reveal. Worst case, he can help pinpoint a night target for the mafia. It's just a feeling I have, sorry to all those who hate gut instincts. This long, thought out process is something I am just getting used to - the majority of mafia games I have played have been in chat rooms, with day lasting 5 minutes. Makes for a very different game, I have discovered. :)

 

And I am playing nothing of Nae. I still don't trust her after being so very good as Cole :P

 

Actually, this is a good post, even if it's dripping with WIFOM

 

Then, after my role reveal and my call out of Nae:

 

I have to agree with Kivam on the defensive thing. If you intended it as a joke Nae, your words left much to be desired.

 

I don't know what they're up to Rey, but it was a very interesting reaction on both sides from the smallest of comments. *looks thoughtful*

 

An interesting interaction with Rey, here.  And again, the signaling

 

Then, a joke post

 

So somewhere around your shoulders then, DS? :)

 

more on Nae:

 

So...you keep responding to all these comments because you're innocent? If you weren't being defensive, wouldn't you say your piece, then bite your tongue? It's going to take a lot more votes than 3 is it? - for a lynch. I understand your logic and the need to defend yourself quite strongly, especially as an innocent trying to avoid a wrongful lynch. Maybe it's just your personality shining through, that you are reiterating your point repeatedly. I don't really know. But if you were trying to persuade people that you're not being defensive, wouldn't you say it once then leave be? The louder you yell, the more people look at you, innocent or not. These things I am pondering. :)

 

A decent post - until we get to the signaling again.

 

I hate when all the talkative people get killed off right off the bat because being active obviously means you are scum....

 

Wait...I thought the quiet ones were scummy? I have no qualms with you posting often, I agree, the more active we are the more we can discover. I was commenting on the reiterating of the one point of not being defensive. Not looking to argue here, just pointing out my observations. And you contradicted yourself. *shrugs* Noobs aren't the only ones in the universe to ever panic at the thought of being lynched day one. No one likes it, it sucks watching a full game from the sidelines :)

 

A good post, here.

 

More to come

 

 

 

[Kivam]

Picking up where we left off - and no way I finish Lavinya completely, since I'm falling asleep

 

I contributed nothing? Well, maybe. Not for lack of trying :). But why me over those that have posted only once or twice? This is my...4th game of mafia on DM. I don't know what to make of you, Pandy. Your reveal strikes me as odd, and I can only guess what your role actually entails. My vote stays for Kivam for the reasons I already stated, and it's as good a reason as any, in my opinion.

 

TYhis strikes me as odd.  She hadn't said anything about me for a while,and she'd been hammering Nae.  I don't get this post at all

 

I think the timing of your reveal Rey is disturbing...we're debating the folly of Pandy's reveal, then out comes yours? I agree, it's almost like you want to be lynched, and people who want to be lynched scare me. I don't know, I suppose if you survive the night we will see what you found, but then, even your find can't be trusted. I don't like it!  :P

 

Since I doubt you'll be lynched today because of the jester scenario, my vote for Kivam still stands as is.

 

And again - she's sticking with me.  She's also tossing out the idea that Rey might be a jester.  Trying to keep people from voting him?  The Jester role wasn't on the role list . . .

 

but her next post:

 

9 Pages while I was sleeping...9 pages! Anyway...wow. First things first - [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]. Though wouldn't neutralising the firefighter also neutralise the arsonist? They can't kill until the fireman dies, yes? Oh right, firefighter turns into killer. Well, hence my unvote.

 

Now, I don't know. When I voted Kivam it was over the role reveals, but I haven't got much more than that to go on anybody. I'm wondering more and more what Pandy's role actually does. Inviting people to use their actions on him is just scummy, if you ask me. Obviously if it's super awesome for the town he wouldn't want to tip the mafia's hand, but I'm thinking perhaps anyone that targets him at night becomes recruited to a cult. Maybe as a reverse to him targeting anyone. Maybe it's given him the power to absorb roles? Who knows what was in the Mod's mind?

 

Nae seems scummy to me too. Or maybe I have bad memories of the last game she was an evil genius. I think scummiest of all however is Rey, right now. It is such an easy role for mafia to hide behind - he 'finds' someone as scum, turns out they're not, oops it's because of the 50% thing. Maybe it's too obvious to be such a tactic, but for lack of any real evidence against anyone else my vote is [glow=red,2,300]Rey[/glow].

 

This is also the second vote on Rey.

 

OK, I'm through page 54, and need to go to bed before I collapse.  Maybe it's the tiredness speaking, but I'm actually less suspicious of Lavinya than I was before I started this exercise.  She has contributed (which I didn't remember), was one of the first to fuel Rey's lynch, and basically the primary suspicious thing she's done is the "I'm confused" signaling.

 

If someone would take over from here (ie her posts from page 55 forward) I'd appreciate it.  Gnight, all.

 

[LilyElizabeth]

For myself, I still find Lily the most suspicious. She comes off as all innocent, but I've seen this woman in all her deviousness on a mafia game I ran, and she's probably keeping better notes than DPR.

 

Far, darling, you made my day. Considering how awesome of a day it was, that's saying something. That was the first time I ever was scum, too. You're way too kind. There IS a compliment in there, right?

 

[a pale tanned lover]

Right i'm going to role reveal who i am. I'm the fortune teller....i pick someone too die and they die 2 nights later....the only way to stop them dying is for me too take their place.

 

Thats the reason i went after Rey when he "revealed" i knew he was lying and the most likely person to have his ability was the mafia.

 

I am a townie.

 

The reason i have revealed now is simple, i have sent two people in too die and i'm not going to let them die if they have an important role for the town....the person who is going to die tonight is Barm.

 

I can't keep this role secret because it would mean that i could end up picking the wrong people to die and help the scum.

[ed2funy]

Well...why did you pick them if you weren't sure. Why kill someone (or send them to their deaths) if you didn't know their alignment.

That isn't really town action right there....

:-\ o.0

[a pale tanned lover]

Well...why did you pick them if you weren't sure. Why kill someone (or send them to their deaths) if you didn't know their alignment.

That isn't really town action right there....

:-\ o.0

Well with the information you have tell me how you would use my role?

[ed2funy]

I wouldn't pick a name the first night, hell, maybe not even the second night. Not unless there were some huge, huge signs someone was scum.

 

Did DPR say you have to use it?

[Kivam]

Ed's got it exactly.  Pale - that's a role you absolutely need to keep holstered unless and until you're sure a player is scum

[Kivam]

BTW, you also need to tell us who you sent in night 2.  If they have a more important role than Barm, you'll need to let Barm die and swap with them.

 

Sorry, but this was a colossally bad use of your role.

[Kivam]

Ok, in the interests of getting the game moving, I'm gonna reveal.

 

I'm the fortune teller.

 

I can view people with a 50% accuracy. But I can only view people who have said the word "lynch" in a post.

 

 

Only 12 people voting so far...

I can view people with a 50% accuracy. But I can only view people who have said the word "lynch" in a post.

This gets my scummiest comment of the game so far....you're claiming a role and saying that we wouldn't know if you were telling the truth or not...

[glow=red,2,300]unvote

rey[/glow]

 

Follow the links - went to do some research, and Pale isn't kidding when he says he went after Rey right away.  Could always be a gambit . . . but with Pale volunteering to take a bullet for Barm or night 2's target if they have critical roles, I'm inclined to believe he's a townie.

 

Here's the current list:

 

1. Pandy

2. Wombat

3. Lavinya

4. ed

5. Barms

6. Lily

7. Pete

8. Lia

9. Hybrid

10. Nae

11. FDM

12. Talya

13. Kivam

14. Pale

15. Dae

 

The colors are my own breakdown - blue means I'm 99% (or, in the case of myself, 100%) sure they are not scum, and won't be voting for them.  Red are my top suspects (before casing/rereads).  Black are somewhere in the middle

[WWWwombat]

I was actually getting a town vibe from Talya.  The way she jumped down Rey's throat seemed genuine to me.

[Kivam]

Continuing the Lavinya case - I asked what she meant by "kill me and I turn into a serial killer"

 

I do I do! I was thinking out loud. I assumed, as you said, that once the firefighter dies, so do all the people primed by the arsonist. Having had no night, we can assume no one is primed, so no one dies in the backlash. However, as you said, if you are lynched you turn into a serial killer, yes? Or did I read you wrong? I'd rather not have a serial killer running around, for all we know that would be an additional serial killer. Did I make better sense that time?

 

Barm explained that if I die, the arsonist becomes a serial, and she replies

 

Ahh. Well, that makes sense. Well, the same reasoning applies to me removing my vote - the serial killer thing.

 

After I say I'd rather vote Lavinya or Nae than Rey

 

What did I ever do to you? Besides call you mafia and vote for you? XD

 

Barm recaps and votes Lavinya, and she replies:

 

Ouch. I'm sure it wasn't your intention Barm (actually what do I know, maybe it was?) but that post was ridiculously insulting. I don't see why me being legitimately confused makes me scum. You don't follow my logic? So I'm not as smart as you, I don't know any of you well enough to read so much between the lines as you are all wont to do. Doesn't make me scum. I could easily be sitting super quiet, barely commenting because then my flawed logic wouldn't show up and I wouldn't be confusing, but who is that going to help? I'm trying to contribute, unfortunately it seems I'm offering nothing of any use save to hang me. Well, all I can say is don't do it, if you love your town! :)

 

After Alys says Wes told her Rey's reveal was a "four letter F word"

 

My guess is the F word is fake and relates to a role claim? :P

 

Responding to a "captain obvious" post:

 

You say that, but while everyone assumed they knew, I'd forever be wondering if I did actually know what they all know...lol. I like things in plainly spoken English ;)

 

After Rey's death scene:

 

Looks like we were lucky as hell! And it only took 64 pages, impressive :D

 

I'm skipping the Sultry Night Spam

 

 

[Kivam]

I was actually getting a town vibe from Talya.  The way she jumped down Rey's throat seemed genuine to me.

 

For some reason she's been striking me as off.  When I'm done with Lavinya and Dae, she'll probably be the next person whose posts I review.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Gah! I'm doing Dae! How far are you? I'm on page 24. If you are farther than I'm going to stop and go after Hybrid and Lia.

[Barmacral]

Pale, seriously? Ugh. I'll deal with this later, I have to leave for school now.

[Barmacral]

Gah! I'm doing Dae!

 

Thats what she said.

[Far Dareis Mai]

I'm chagrined but proud at the same time....