The one power is cheap

[Ashaman Kovan]

So....How about this horrible weather I'm having? :)

[sheikh chilli]

wow Arkelias, if you were a forsaken the forces of light would have been buried long ago

[Arkelias]

Yes, I'd bury them under the wall of text I posted above muhahahahha >=)

[Bob T Dwarf]

I would like the answer to the Trolloc problem.

 

Since Machin Shin's encounter with Fain, it seems to have incorporated some of Fain's ability to find Rand.  Now, every time Rand goes to a Waygate, Machin Shin is waiting.

 

This strongly suggests that it tracks him and waits at the nearest Waygate.

 

That Trolloc horde had to use the Waygate closest to the Manor to get there and make their attack.  The very Waygate where Machin Shin, based on past behavior, should be waiting.

 

So, how did 100,000 of them get safely through when they were walking straight into Machin Shin's waiting, greedy, deadly embrace?

[Mr. Micawber]

I would like the answer to the Trolloc problem.

 

Since Machin Shin's encounter with Fain, it seems to have incorporated some of Fain's ability to find Rand.  Now, every time Rand goes to a Waygate, Machin Shin is waiting.

 

This strongly suggests that it tracks him and waits at the nearest Waygate.

 

That Trolloc horde had to use the Waygate closest to the Manor to get there and make their attack.  The very Waygate where Machin Shin, based on past behavior, should be waiting.

 

So, how did 100,000 of them get safely through when they were walking straight into Machin Shin's waiting, greedy, deadly embrace?

 

*Burp!* "You guys lookin' at me? Nah, all y'all just go on ahead, I've already had six fists this morning. Nah, I'm good, I'm good, anyone want ice cream...No? Well, good luck with killing Al'Thor! Tell him to drop by if you get the chance!"

[Bob T Dwarf]

That ^^^^ is as intelligent and logical an analysis of how it had to have worked as any I can think of.

[Arkelias]

While the analysis is both intelligent and logical, I feel there are other possible interpretations.

 

*An army of trollocs and fades comes up to the gate.  Mashin Shin is waiting there hanging out*

 

Mashin Shin: Sup

 

Myrddraal227: Not much lol.  Hey could you like, umm, not flay our skin and crack our bones and stuff lol?

 

Mashin Shin: Fain said I need to kill Rand and stuff.  For some reason he won't come back in the ways.  I even tried like, not flaying him but he still wouldn't come inside.  I think he's a racist.  You know he's from some hick town in the middle of nowhere.  They're always racists.  Everyone knows that.

 

Myrddraal227: So, umm, if we got get Rand and uh, 'bring him back' will you let us go lol?

 

Mashin Shin: Yeah I guess.  But you have to bring him back, or I'll kill you alright?

 

Myrddraal227: Sure thing lol.  Is it cool if I bring a few friends?  We can, uh, search faster that way.

 

Mashin Shin: Yeah ok, that makes sense.  You can bring your friends. But you have to come back with Rand, ok?

 

Myrddraal227: lol nub

 

*One hundred thousand trollocs file past*

 

I believe that if a Myrddraal could use the internet they'd use leet speak.  I think I've been reading this series for too long o.o

 

 

[Arath Faringal]

I would like the answer to the Trolloc problem.

 

Since Machin Shin's encounter with Fain, it seems to have incorporated some of Fain's ability to find Rand.  Now, every time Rand goes to a Waygate, Machin Shin is waiting.

 

This strongly suggests that it tracks him and waits at the nearest Waygate.

 

That Trolloc horde had to use the Waygate closest to the Manor to get there and make their attack.  The very Waygate where Machin Shin, based on past behavior, should be waiting.

 

So, how did 100,000 of them get safely through when they were walking straight into Machin Shin's waiting, greedy, deadly embrace?

 

You assume that Machin Shin hangs out at the Waygate, but that's not necesarily true.  Yes, MS is at the gate whenever Rand is also there, but where is it when Rand is positioned exactly half way between two gates?  Distance and direction in the real world mean little in that place.  Two gates in Cairhien could be on opposite ends of the ways entirely.  Two gates could be within half a days ride of each other outside, and still have 4-5 other gates between them inside.

 

Since MS seems to have inherited from Fain whatever it is that allows him to track Rand, perhaps the Black Wind hangs out at the spot in the ways corresponds to Rand's position on the outside?  Or it might not be drawn toward any gate at all until Rand is within a certain distance of it.

 

Also, Fain has mentioned before that sometimes Rand just vanishes from his senses.  Whatever Rand does that causes that could also affect the Black Wind.  If it can't track him, it could just wander away until the sense is restored.

 

I think the real question about the ways is how Shadowspawn learned how to read Ogier script :P

 

If all we see is Asha'man using new weaves, and they all appear to have learned them instantly and with no effort, then how would it be relevant that the one Asha'man Fred had a little difficulty picking them up.

 

There really wasn't as much 'instant learning' as you let on.  LTT fired off a full dozen blossoms of fire before any of the other Asha'man started to use it, and they were hardly masters of it even then.  They were dropping them far too close to the buildings.  Rand specifically mentions that the Asha'man on the other sides of the manor couldn't see, so they weren't able to learn the weave.  And Logain is the only one who used Deathgates or Arrows of Fire.  Also after he saw several examples from Rand first.

 

I've also noticed that you repeatedly say that the shadowspawn were 'announcing themselves'.  They did no such thing.  Trollocs and Fades were charging the place in complete silence.  They didn't make any sound at all until they started blowing up, when it was obvious that they had been discovered.  Which was after every channeler had already sensed their presence.  The only advantage they would have gained from coming at night would be that their numbers would have been hidden.  The channelers would still sense them at the same time, and while the Asha'man might not be aware of what they were feeling, the Aes Sedai surely would have.  The sensation seems strong enough that it would awaken any channelers and warders who were sleeping at the time, so the shadow wouldn't really gain anything, other than getting the jump on a few more Saldeans in the barns.

[Mr. Micawber]

Oh, yes, Ark, if anyone's a n00b, it's clearly Machin Shin.

 

Guy can't even get out of the bloody Ways.

[Mr Ares]

Or, it points out that the sender was not any kind of experienced military commander.

Or it points out that the sender thought it unnecessary.

That leaves Aginor/Osan'gar/Dashiva

Who had the minor handicap of being dead.

 

George R.R. Martin makes the same basic premise in his series. The big difference is that while some people make mistakes based on emotions, nearly every character makes intelligent decisions when you see what they knew at the time.

That's no difference at all.

 

New Spring anyone?

Hardly an unrelated project.

 

People lost interest

No they didn't.

 

people like Maj

More Maj hero worship, I see.

 

Think about all the interesting discussions I've started

Thinks long and hard....none spring to mind. Just a lot of unsubstantiated whining and the occasional halfway decent point.

 

I just believed he'd lost control of the story

What the hell does this even mean? Every time I see it, I wonder the same damn thing. Of course he was in control.

 

That only happens when no on will buy the book.

And yet KoD did sell. In great numbers. Number 1 bestseller.

 

What bothers me, and I suspect some others is how slowly any of the characters develop. How many reams and reams of paper it takes for Nynaeve to quit yanking on her braid 5 times per page.  An objective reader would almost have to conclude that every character in the series is afflicted with OCD based on how often they each repeat the same series of actions over and over again for 11 books.

Another mystifying objection. True, some of these mannerisms are overused, but so what? How much would the series be changed for cutting them out? Not much. What difference does a few braid tugs more or less really make? None at all.

 

Then here comes "The Great Transmigration of the Fallen Forsaken." Osan'gar, Aran'gar, and Moridin. That was the BIG neon sign proclaiming, "Not so fast. We're making too much money here. We've gotta string this out a LOT longer."

Well, Moridin wasn't seen until the next book, so you just have Osan'gar and Aran'gar as of LoC. Also, they were always part of the plan. They were always supposed to be there. And it was hinted at in the very first book. So it wasn't stringing it out to make more money (how does that work, anyway? If he didn't bring them back, he could have had a couple of Darkfriends fulfill the same function. How did they make the series longer?), it wasn't a betrayal of what you signed up for, it was exactly what you signed up for.

 

Mat uses a new technology, the repeating crossbow. He lines up his army in hiding in the treeline on either side of the road, and executes a flawless attack that catches the enemy completely by surprise. This was a great use of tactics, and is exactly what I mean when I say the shadow has no decent general.

But the scale of the slaughter is incredibly rare in history. Battles where an entire army of 10,000 men are slaughtered to the last man hardly ever happen, no matter how much surprise, no matter the tactics. And in such a short time. That practically begs for automatic weapons. And this is a plan Mat comes up with in five minutes, with no time to prepare. How is it any different to Rand's Trollocs? It isn't. If one cheapens, the other does too.

 

The use or lack of the power is what makes a good battle if and when one side has it and the other does not.

What? If one side has it, then using it makes for a good battle? Sure.

 

As I already mentioned dreadlords could have evened the odds a bit by countering the weaves of the people inside

Or getting blasted by Callandor. If and used it, a few Dreadlord wouldn't be enough. If he didn't, then they wouldn't be necessary. The tactics were blunt and brutal, they lacked finessse, they would have been unnecesarily wasteful, but they could have won. If you don't care about losses, that's fine.

 

Yes, I did spot a flaw in your argument.

No, you didn't. Because Taim doesn't know how powerful Callandor is (if he even knows it's a sa'angreal), nor does he necessarily know Rand has it. In LoC he asked Rand about sa'angreal. If he knew Callandor was one, he would know Rand had one, and wouldn't need to ask. He could have learnt since, of course, but that's not a certainty. And he might have thought he sent enough Trollocs to kill him regardless.

 

Plus, they aren't new weaves.

Yes, they are. They didn't know them before. That makes them new.

 

the forsaken

Taim?

 

MS does show the capacity for change by being willing to work with Fain

It's never done that. It didn't kill him, and it worked against him by forcing Rand away from the Waygate. Fain wanted Rand on Toman Head. And if it has changed before, it can change again.

 

Unless Rand travelled away.

Dreadlords or no, nothing to be done about that.

 

Neither would have been an option if they were attacked quietly in the middle of the night.

Because you can't use Callandor unless the sun is up? This makes no sense.

 

He'll have a lot more than that at Tarmon Gaidon

So will the Shadow.

 

I asked you for an argument about the shadow having a decent general, and you answer with one word.

You asked for a decent general, I gave you one. How is he a bad general?

 

It certainly can be, but deciding not to participate doesn't make you a great general, which is what you were arguing.

It can, if your plan is to sit out and attack when the enemy is weak. That makes sense.

 

Which Rand did.

So Sammael got Rand to react to him, to do exactly what he wanted. Good for him. Smart move.

 

Pointing at the series and saying its in there if only I'm smart enough to see it isn't an argument.

The argument has been made, many times.

 

This is the shadow's brilliant plan?

Set the Light against itself. Makes sense. They are winning, after all. Rand is losing. He needs the Seanchan on side. He doesn't have them. He needs the Borderlanders. he doesn't have them. He needs the Ogier. He doesn't have them. He needs the AS. He doesn't have them. He needs the Asha'man. He doesn't have them. He needs Perrin, Mat and Moiraine, and he doesn't have them. Nor does he have Andor, Murandy or Arad Doman (although he's getting it), Ghealdan or Mayene (it's with Perrin). He does have the Legion, Illian, Tear, Cairhien and a few hangers on. He's also on the run, not stopping anywhere for long, and has been since PoD, pretty much. Sure, he lured a couple of Asha'man to Far madding, and spent some time recuperating from the Cleansing, but the end of KoD sees him on the move again, which means most of his people will be hard pushed to find him when the time comes.

 

In reading 11 books you couldn't find an answer.

I did, Rand on the run, the Light fighting itself, the Tower fighting itself, the Light infiltrated, the dead walking, reality breaking down, his most trusted generals going their own way, Shai'tan breaking free - all victories for the Shadow. And there is an awful lot we don't know about besides. And despite your claims, evidence of foolish decisions on the part of the Shadow's higher ups is rather thin on the ground. Read practically non-existent.

 

Doesn't that sound like Rand winning and the shadow losing to you?

No. As I said, amount of territory controlled isn't relevant. Rand is running. Does that sound like Rand winning to you?

 

Whether its important or not it still shows that the shadow has had its ass whupped every time it engaged Rand.

No. If it isn't important, then it doesn't matter that Rand was able to take them. A few minor victories, nothing important. Not a problem that they were lost.

 

If the series is at a point where the armies of the light meet the shadow I'd hardly call putting Dreadlords in the shadow army a waste.

Important word: all. They'll have some with their armies, and others infiltrating the Light. You focus on the ones in front, and the ones beside and behind you knife you in the back. While you deal with them, the Trollocs are coming closer and the Dreadlords ahead are still attacking you.

 

The Seachan invaded, but their empress has married Mat.

And the next time they meet, they will be enemies.

 

They infiltrated the WT, but haven't stopped Egwene's attempt to weld it back together.

They broke the Tower, and have since concerned themselves with keeping it broken. They succeeded in the first, no two ways about it, and are still succeeding with the second.

 

We all know she's going to make it whole in book 12.

We know nothing of the sort.

 

Taim is running the black tower, but not at the behest of any of the forsaken. To our knowledge Taim bows to no man.

To our knowledge, the man is a Darkfriend. Let the Lord of Chaos rule. So he is doing it at the behest of the Chosen.

 

13 of the most powerful channelers from the AoL.

What relevance does their strength in the Power have? None at all. Stop bringing it up.

 

Give it to Logain who Min has already assured Rand will go on to greater glory. He's someone Rand can trust.

Glory doesn't mean you win. He might be the enemy. The glory might come with the Shadow's victory. And Rand doesn't trust Logain.

 

Are you serious?

Absolutely.

 

announced its presence before it attacked

Evidence?

 

Having more will not guarantee victory by itself, but last I checked it sure is a huge advantage.

Check again. Numbers are a very small advantage.

 

you also have the best generals.

No you don't. Rand has Bashere and Mat, although Mat is off doing his own thing. The Seanchan are his enemies, Bryne is with the Rebels, Jagad with the Borderlanders, the Wolf in Arad Doman, Niall dead, Demandred for the Shadow, other generals unknown.

 

As far as the evil god right now he is still imprisoned.

He's touching the world.

 

He'll be fighting Rand one on one per the prophecies.

So Rand, and whatever sa'angreal he has with him, won't be with the army.

 

How are they not alone again?

Enemy within and enemy without. They need to fight both at once. They don't know the former till he strikes. Confusion sets in, and they get hit before they can regain order.

 

As I said numbers aren't everything in war

They are only a minor advantage. Almost every time a numerically superior force has won, it was for reasons other than numbers.

 

reveal his true allegiance and be immediatly killed.

Not that simple. And while they are killing him, they are not killing the Dreadlords with the Trolloc army, nor the Trolloc army itself. You have said nothing to address that.

 

The side with Rand is the good guys.

But that's the point - some of the people with Rand will be the enemy, ready to stab him in the back. Weiramon leads another foolish charge...and gets a lot of soldiers killed. Taim gives an order for A group of Asha'man to move elsewhere, leaving the army without channeler support.

 

Then they've revealed their presence and get wiped out.

That takes time.

 

In the meantime Rand

Rand isn't there.

 

You neglect the remaing seals preventing him from intervening directly.

He is already intervening directly. And Rand is going to break the seals.

 

Logic convinces me.

Good one. I can only hope that some of what I say will sink in. Bit by bit, you'll learn.

 

Have you ever seen well founded criticism of the WoT?

Sometimes. Usually, you have to sift through a lot of exaggeration and non-sense to get anything decent. When criticism only serves to highlight that the critic hasn't properly read the series, it isn't well founded. When the critic blows everything out of all proportion, it might be well founded, but they're not telling you what they think is wrong, they're telling you an absurd exaggeration of what they think is wrong. So what they say is actually wrong.

 

As I've never seen that

It doesn't happen very often.

 

Sure I have

No, you haven't.

 

I've said plenty to substantiate my claim.

No, you haven't.

 

I've talked about how good political intrigue requires reader empathy for both sides.

No it doesn't.

 

I've talked about how it needs villians that make intelligent decisions.

You haven't shown how that is lacking.

 

I've gone in depth on the subject

You've said nothing at great length. That's not the same thing at all.

 

the return of the dead forsaken cheapened the accomplishment of killing them in the first place

How? How is it any less of an accomplishment?

 

that feels contrived.

But it's not.

 

It also makes it easy to bring them back over and over again

No it doesn't. At best it makes it possible, but not easy. No-one has been brought back twice. It's months between death and resurrection. Some things prevent resurrection.

 

Err, these are all caused by the dark one with the exception of of infiltrating the WT.

Some, not all. And if you have an evil god, why not use Him?

 

Mat and Avi didn't die.

Yes they did. They were killed. It just didn't take.

 

They were considered dead

No, they were actually dead.

 

Death is where someone you know, actually dies.

They did.

 

Like as in they don't come back.

This is fantasy. it doesn't work like that. Just ask George R.R. Martin, J.R.R. Tolkien, Steven Erikson, or any other author who has made use of post-mortem adventures for characters.

 

What 'surface' am I not seeing past?

Victory is measured in more than "how many main characters did we kill". We see them win elsewhere.

 

What does this have to do with people we care about in the series dying?

Main characters dying is irrelevant.

 

Who won that fight

Moiraine. Rand was losing, badly. Be'lal spent a bit too long talking. hardly evidence of massive incompetence. A very small mistake was the difference between victory and defeat. The main characters eke out a few minor victories, but everywhere else the Shadow wins.

 

A civil war the shadow is not active in that ended in favor of the light.

A civil war they helped cause, that is not yet completely over. And if only the Light is fighting, only the Light can win, but only the Light can lose.

 

He still has all the troops he needs for the last battle

You don't know how many he needs.

 

Even though there is nothing to suggest that the shadow controls Arad Doman

Graendal is still there. Nothing suggests they don't.

 

I shot all the other ones down

Hilarious.

 

Egwene is about to unite the white tower and correct all of these issues.

Possibly. A very speculative argument. As so many of yours are.

 

But this is AFTER Rand's army destroyed Sammael's.

Rand didn't have an army in the city. And he couldn't hold the city without killing Sammael, and by killing Sammael the city was bound to fall. Anything besides killing Sammael counts nothing towards Rand's goal. And he almost died when he fell through a hole in the floor. He would be dead if Moridin didn't save him - so actually, that's not a victory for the Light because he was dancing to the Shadow's tune and doing exactly what they wanted. So, Shadow wins. Amount of territory controlled is irrelevant.

 

Rand could have kept the city

Not without taking out Sammael. And he followed Sammael exactly where Sammael wanted him. Walked into a trap.

 

Why not?

Sammael and his army. Sammael already smashed Rand's army, which is why he only brought a small force into the city. Sammael's army wasn't even in the city.

 

Like I said before if the trollocs using the ways in such numbers is explained by the end of the series it was a mystery.

No, it's a mystery whether or not it's solved.

 

Trollocs did NOT start off cannon fodder.

They did. Nothing changed in this regard, save our heroes got better at killing, and the threats changed in nature. Political intrigue, assassins, reality breaking down. The Seanchan, madness.

 

Just uttering it doesn't make it true.

It's true even if I don't utter it. You need a relevant counter example, one of people actually gaining power, learning magic. LotR doesn't have that. Frodo gains power by...putting on a ring. Wow, steep learning curve. Try something that does feature magic being learnt and being used in large scale magic battles. Malazan Book of the Fallen for instance, which features people proving to be natural High Mages and performin massive feats of magic at the drop of a hat.

 

They are long fantasy series

Being long is hardly a relevant factor.

 

However, what we do see is the trolloc army being destroyed by all the Asha'man using the new weaves.

Or at least some of the Asha'man. You have no proof that it was all of them. Enough were able to copy them after seeing enough examples from Rand, and even then not to the same extent or without problems.

 

conjecture

It wasn't conjecture.

[Mr. Micawber]

Isn't there a rumpus room or a cage match arena we could put you in with Ark, Mr. Ares?

 

I do love reading your posts, but they're bloody long!  :)

[Mr Ares]

I do love reading your posts, but they're bloody long!  :)

Unfortunately, it happens.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Or, it points out that the sender was not any kind of experienced military commander.

Or it points out that the sender thought it unnecessary.

That leaves Aginor/Osan'gar/Dashiva

Who had the minor handicap of being dead.

 

Yes it does point out that the sender thought numbers would be enough, which is what I already said.  And who among the male Forsaken would be most likely to think that?  Aginor, who was not yet dead when the Shadowspawn were dispatched.

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

What bothers me, and I suspect some others is how slowly any of the characters develop. How many reams and reams of paper it takes for Nynaeve to quit yanking on her braid 5 times per page.  An objective reader would almost have to conclude that every character in the series is afflicted with OCD based on how often they each repeat the same series of actions over and over again for 11 books.

Another mystifying objection. True, some of these mannerisms are overused, but so what? How much would the series be changed for cutting them out? Not much. What difference does a few braid tugs more or less really make? None at all.

 

Yes, we know it makes no difference to you.

 

Believe it or not, we don't model our reactions to things on how you feel about them.  Being our own individual selves we each have our own individual reactions.

 

Much as you'd like to believe otherwise, life, the universe, and everything is not about you.

 

Then here comes "The Great Transmigration of the Fallen Forsaken." Osan'gar, Aran'gar, and Moridin. That was the BIG neon sign proclaiming, "Not so fast. We're making too much money here. We've gotta string this out a LOT longer."

Well, Moridin wasn't seen until the next book, so you just have Osan'gar and Aran'gar as of LoC. Also, they were always part of the plan. They were always supposed to be there. And it was hinted at in the very first book. So it wasn't stringing it out to make more money (how does that work, anyway? If he didn't bring them back, he could have had a couple of Darkfriends fulfill the same function. How did they make the series longer?), it wasn't a betrayal of what you signed up for, it was exactly what you signed up for.

 

No, we saw Moridin, he just didn't become active as early as Osan'gar and Aran'gar.

 

Do these spells of clairvoyance come over you often?  What else does the little voice in your head tell you about what I signed up for?

 

Yes, I did spot a flaw in your argument.

No, you didn't. Because Taim doesn't know how powerful Callandor is (if he even knows it's a sa'angreal), nor does he necessarily know Rand has it. In LoC he asked Rand about sa'angreal. If he knew Callandor was one, he would know Rand had one, and wouldn't need to ask. He could have learnt since, of course, but that's not a certainty. And he might have thought he sent enough Trollocs to kill him regardless.

 

Hmmmmm, apparently you have found some hitherto unknown proof that it was Taim that sent the Trollocs.  Pray tell, which book and chapter contains this wondrous proof?

 

 

[Alternate34]

Ditto on the long posts.  Geeze Louise.

 

On the topic of the Light actually winning because they have more channelers and the OP is way too powerful-

 

(1) Ares is right about hidden villains.  If the light's victory is based on a few individuals, some of whom are powerful channelers, a few bad apples can make all of the difference.  Rand needs Moiraine.  Someone sneaks up when the Last Battle actually starts and assassinates her.  Bye bye victory.  Someone sneakily kills Min, someone extremely close to Rand.  Rand goes insane.  Bye bye victory.  Rand sends Perrin off with Elza Penfell.  Elza Penfell offs Perrin.  Light loses.  On the other hand, the light has no one on the inside of the Dark.  No quick offing can stop the Shadow.  Additionally, those hidden infiltrators would not be caught immediately.  Such is the nature of infiltration, it could be anyone you trusted, so they can continue on their merry shadow way.

 

(2) Other shadow victories and advantages: the light does not know their full force, the light is in civil war almost everywhere, the shadow got rid of Moiraine for a long time, Rand is crippled, Shara cannot help, the Seanchean back on the continent cannot help, the Shaido were split away, people are starving.  The shadow has endured minimal losses in achieving this.  A few Forsaken.  A few Trollocs.  A few Myrrdraal.

 

Maybe the Light will all fall into line once the Shadow attacks in full force.  Of course, that initial hammer blow could easily shatter the Light's forces.  The shadow has the all important advantage of the first move.  Rand has been using that advantage all along with great success.  Let's see what happens when the Dark One uses it.

 

I can understand thinking that the shadow is a bunch of bunglers.  I think RJ could have had more emphasis on the issues the light face, mainly that every civil war and internal conflict takes time and resources away from the light and allows the dark to sit around and breed Trollocs and Myrrdraal and convert a few darkfriends that see only desparate times.  Seriously, the Light are fighting smaller battle while the Shadow is fighting a war of attrition.  Major wars are so often determined by the grander scale of resources.  It saps the strength of everyone involved.  Starving people don't or can't fight.  They can't produce weaponry.  They can't grow food.  They are more susceptible to being darkfriends out of despair.

[Bob T Dwarf]

The problem with the whole "hidden villain" argument is just that.  They're hidden.

 

None of us knows how many they are, where they are, what their capabilities are, what their orders are.

 

We can construct as many castles in the air as each of us likes, but those are just our own private flights of fancy about what might happen IF.

 

There could be thousands of such traitors and saboteurs.  There might only be a few dozen.  It's even conceivable that there are none at all.  Speculating about how many, who, and how they will affect the outcome is pointless.  There will be as many as the author needs to make the story unfold the way he wants.

 

So, saying the Shadow is really winning because these ( so far ) hypothetical traitors and saboteurs might exist is just blowing hot air.  Until we see them in action, they are meaningless in trying to assess what real damage they might cause and who might be ahead at this point.

[Arkelias]

Micawber, they take even longer to write than they do to read =/

 

I know I should just give up and accept that nothing I say will ever penetrate with Ares, but I'm stubborn enough to keep trying.  Well, here's the next chapter of the saga.

 

Hardly an unrelated project.

 

New spring is a prequel.  Generally an author finishes the series he is working on before breaking away to write the prequel.  Especially when the prequel is boring.

 

No they didn't.

 

Let me try it this way.  I know a number of people who lost interest in the series.  I've read about even more on Amazon who lost interest.  Are you pretending those people don't exist?  Maybe in your world, the land where Ares is always right, they don't.

 

More Maj hero worship, I see.

 

I bring up Maj because while he can be condescending he is also trying to argue a point.  He'll listen to what others have to say, and I've seen him admit he's wrong.  I've never seen you do that.

 

I don't care how good you think you are, everyone makes mistakes.  I've admitted to many in my time posting here.  You haven't.  That's because you are obsessed with being right, and everyone who reads your posts is aware of it.

 

Thinks long and hard....none spring to mind. Just a lot of unsubstantiated whining and the occasional halfway decent point.

 

If its unsubstantiated whining why do you bother replying to it?  Why do others agree with me?  Are we all whining?  Read this thread carefully.  I'm not spouting an unsupported argument.  Others agree with me. 

 

What the hell does this even mean? Every time I see it, I wonder the same damn thing. Of course he was in control.

 

It means that he didn't know what to write next.  Is that simple enough for you?

 

And yet KoD did sell. In great numbers. Number 1 bestseller.

 

Yep, it had a huge burst of sales.  But unlike the Harry Potter books which all still sell for retail the WoT books have been heavily discounted.  Why do you think that is?

 

But the scale of the slaughter is incredibly rare in history. Battles where an entire army of 10,000 men are slaughtered to the last man hardly ever happen, no matter how much surprise, no matter the tactics. And in such a short time. That practically begs for automatic weapons. And this is a plan Mat comes up with in five minutes, with no time to prepare. How is it any different to Rand's Trollocs? It isn't. If one cheapens, the other does too.

 

Mat had a good plan and he executed it flawlessly.  He came up with the plan in five minutes, because his head is stuffed with the memories of every notable general in history. 

 

Repeating crossbows are devestating, especially when used against a foe that has never seen them before.  What happened was realistic as a result.  How is that different than Rand's trollocs?

 

Rand was in a home smoking his pipe and relaxing and was ambushed by 100,000 trollocs.  He had 30 people with him.  Instead of getting ambushed Mat set an ambush, and had something like 8,000 troops with him.  Rand was outnumbered 30,000 to 1.  Mat was outnumbered 3 to 1.

 

Do you seriously not see a difference between the two situations?  And you have the nerve to lecture me about war?  Wow. 

 

 

What? If one side has it, then using it makes for a good battle? Sure.

 

Both sides having it makes for a good battle.  Neither side having it makes for a good battle.  One side having it does not make for a good battle.  Understand now?

 

 

Or getting blasted by Callandor. If and used it, a few Dreadlord wouldn't be enough. If he didn't, then they wouldn't be necessary. The tactics were blunt and brutal, they lacked finessse, they would have been unnecesarily wasteful, but they could have won. If you don't care about losses, that's fine.

 

Which leads us right back to my original point.  This attack was retarded.  Can we stop arguing about this now?  We've done it so long that you're touting my position without realizing that you are actually agreeing with me.  The attack was poorly designed and executed, just admit it and lets move on.

 

No, you didn't. Because Taim doesn't know how powerful Callandor is (if he even knows it's a sa'angreal), nor does he necessarily know Rand has it

 

Are you serious?  Wow, I guess you are.  You talk long and often about how bad my arguments are and then you trot out this drivel.

 

Taim thought he was the Dragon Reborn and studied the prophecies carefully.  Even if he hand't everyone knows the Dragon Reborn was destined to take Callandor.  Given that Taim must have investigated it, and almost certainly learned what it was.

 

Assuming he didn't Rand used Callandor in a battle to through back the Seanchan in Ebou Dar.  He had a ton of Asha'man with him.  Those Asha'man came from and later returned to the Black Tower.  You don't think Taim's followers would have reported that Callandor was a Sa'Angreal strong enough to devestate the Seanchan army?

 

Obviously they would have reported to him so even if Taim somehow didn't already know that Callandor was a Sa'Angreal he would have after that fight.  Given how powerful it is why would he assume Rand leaves it anywhere?  He knows it disappeared from the heart of the stone, and since then its only been seen in Rand's possession or his immediate vicinity.

 

Hey look, another one of your brilliant arguments destroyed.

 

Yes, they are. They didn't know them before. That makes them new.

 

That makes the weaves new to anyone from this age.  Anyone from the AoL who saw combat would also have seen the weaves.  This includes the forsaken.  That was my point.

 

It's never done that. It didn't kill him, and it worked against him by forcing Rand away from the Waygate. Fain wanted Rand on Toman Head. And if it has changed before, it can change again.

 

It could.  But it makes no sense for its basic nature to change.  Unless this is explained to us its a clear mistake.  MS kills anything it crosses.  This is driven home in every scene we ever saw it in.  Why would that change?

 

You've said it could change, but can't present an argument as to what change would make it stop its most basic behavior. Can you explain that?  If not your argument is worthless.

 

Dreadlords or no, nothing to be done about that.

 

Dreadlords attacking in the middle of the night could have fireballed the house at range while Rand was asleep in bed.  Even Rand needs to sleep sometime.

 

Because you can't use Callandor unless the sun is up? This makes no sense.

 

So you lecture me on war, but you don't understand the basic concept of an ambush?  The idea is to catch your prey by surprise.  If you attack at 2am while everyone is in bed that means they are unprepared. 

 

Some of Rand's people would wake up and start shouting the alarm, but by that time the house has been blown apart by your dreadlords and the trollocs are already at the rubble.

 

If you attack during the daytime your opponents are awake, and can respond much more quickly.  This gives them time to respond.  Attack while they are asleep and they are coming out of a dead sleep in their small clothes.

 

Are you really incapable of understanding the difference?  Maybe you should change your user name to Ms. Aphrodite?  I don't think the god of war fits you.

 

You asked for a decent general, I gave you one. How is he a bad general?

 

The burden of proof is on you.  I didn't say he was a bad general. I said we've never seen him do anything to prove he's a good general.  And we haven't.  If you think we have could you kindly point out whichever part of the books show Demandred or any other shadow general doing their job?  You know winning battles like Mat did against the Seanchan?

 

So Sammael got Rand to react to him, to do exactly what he wanted. Good for him. Smart move.

 

Except for the part where he lost the city, and then let Mashadar kill him.  Rand didn't kill him.  One of the natural dangers of the battlefield he chose killed him.  That's the worst tactical blunder a general can make.  Sammael chose the battleground and it cost him his life.

 

How does that make him a great general, Ms. Aphrodite?

 

I did, Rand on the run, the Light fighting itself, the Tower fighting itself, the Light infiltrated, the dead walking, reality breaking down, his most trusted generals going their own way, Shai'tan breaking free - all victories for the Shadow. And there is an awful lot we don't know about besides. And despite your claims, evidence of foolish decisions on the part of the Shadow's higher ups is rather thin on the ground. Read practically non-existent.

 

Rand on the run can be attributed to the forsaken, so you're right there.  The tower fighting itself you are also right about.  Rand's generals going their own way is his own insanity, not anything the shadow is doing.

 

Shai'tan breaking free seems to have very little to do with anything the forsaken have or haven't done.  The evidence of the shadow higher ups making bad decisions is easy to find.  Most of them have been captured or killed.  That seems the clearest proof I can come up with that their plans suck.

 

No. As I said, amount of territory controlled isn't relevant. Rand is running. Does that sound like Rand winning to you?

 

Rand has killed nearly all of the forsaken.  Cleansing the true source also seems a lot like winning to me.  Every time the forsaken oppose him they come away bloody, beaten or dead.  What does that have to do with territory?

 

No. If it isn't important, then it doesn't matter that Rand was able to take them. A few minor victories, nothing important. Not a problem that they were lost.

 

Ravhin getting balefired was minor?  Cleansing the true source was minor?  Taking the stone of tear was minor?  Taking Illian and killing Sammael was minor?  They all seem pretty major to me.  None of those should be counted as 'minor victories'.

 

What relevance does their strength in the Power have? None at all. Stop bringing it up.

 

The relevance it has is that they were the best of the best during the AoL.  When I said powerful I didn't mean powerful in that they wield more of the one power.  I meant they were strong in the power, long lived and used to machiavellen machinations. 

 

And no, I won't stop bringing it up.  It's very relevant to the horrible decisions they make in the series, because it hardly paints them as the best the Shadow would have had to work with during the AoL.

 

Glory doesn't mean you win. He might be the enemy. The glory might come with the Shadow's victory. And Rand doesn't trust Logain.

 

And he could be wrong.  He could give Logain Callandor, and Logain could blast him down and prove he's a spy for the shadow.  If that happens it will show the shadow had a good plan and was winning.  But we both know that isn't going to happen.

 

Check again. Numbers are a very small advantage.

 

Wow.  Just wow.  Yeah the Ms. Aphrodite nickname is permanent now.  There are instances in history where those with smaller armies won.  Beating someone at 3 to 1 odds is unusual.  Beating someone at 5 to 1 odds is rare.  Beating someone at 10 to 1 odds is virtually unheard of.

 

Numbers won't win by themselves, but they are a HUGE advantage.  They give a military commander room to make mistakes, and if nothing else allow a victory through attriction.  I assume you're familiar with the term Pyrrhic victory?  Pyrrhus was a horible general, but he still won through sheer numbers.  Why?  Because they are a large advantage.

 

In the hands of a competent general numbers are even more of an advantage.  They allow you to encircle a foe, to have reserves set off to the side to counter any moves your opponent makes, and to press them where they show weakness.  Saying otherwise only makes you look ignorant.

 

He is already intervening directly. And Rand is going to break the seals.

 

Rand will break the seals when he chooses, not when the DO does.  That means Rand controls, at least to some extent, how much the DO will intervene.  TG will most likely occur when Rand goes to SG and breaks the seals.

 

Good one. I can only hope that some of what I say will sink in. Bit by bit, you'll learn.

 

I could say the same about you.  The difference is that I'll actually listen to arguments and will sometimes change my position.  You are blind to anything but your own superiority and won't ever admit to having made a mistake, no matter how glaring it is.

 

I'm not saying you're always wrong.  A lot of your arguments are well thought out.  I'm saying that when you are wrong you never admit it.  You don't acknowledge good arguments that run counter to your own.  This isn't something you do just to me.  You do it to everyone.

 

How? How is it any less of an accomplishment?

 

How was killing the forsaken less of an accomplishment when they came back?  Because they weren't dead anymore.  Instead of being removed as a threat they were back and able to oppose Rand again.  How can you not see that?

 

Yes they did. They were killed. It just didn't take.

 

My point was that no character we cared about died.  Mat and Avi were technically killed.  For a few pages.  We are the reader experienced no loss, because they came back right away.  RJ doesn't kill off main characters.

 

You've tried trotting out people like Eamon Valda, Rolan and Couladin to show that he has.  No one cares about those people dying, and felt no emotional impact at their deaths. 

 

You then asked me to give you a list of people that would matter.  So I did.  You knew you'd lost that argument, but you searched and searched until you found something that you could still argue.  Mat and Avi died.  Except, they're not dead.

 

Why can't you ever just admit you're wrong?  RJ didn't kill off a single character we cared about.  It's not his style.  Rand, Mat, Perrin, Egweene, Nynyeave, Elayne, Avi, Min, Berelain or a host of other developed characters that we care about could have been killed.

 

None have.  You're argument that Mat and Avi died is pathetic, and is obviously a desperate attempt to avoid being proven wrong.  We all know they are still alive.  My point that no one who mattered has died still stands. 

 

Think I'm wrong?  Give me a character that's died that we care bout.  Not died and come back a few pages later.

 

This is fantasy. it doesn't work like that. Just ask George R.R. Martin, J.R.R. Tolkien, Steven Erikson, or any other author who has made use of post-mortem adventures for characters.

 

And once again you try to change the subject to something you can argue.  Post mortem adventures are great, or they can be if done well.  That still doesn't address the fact that in the Wheel of Time we have not experienced the loss of a single main character that would have provoked an emotional response from the reader.

 

If Elayne was murderered we'd all be shocked and horrified.  That's what I mean.  You can argue til your blue in the face about Mat and Avi having died, but you're entirely and willfully missing my point.  Again, this is just to prevent you being proven wrong.

 

Main characters dying is irrelevant.

 

No, its not.  This was the thrust of my argument.  Just because you don't have a good response doesn't make it irrelevant.  Man you love using that word.

 

If we understand that main characters can die then we experience a sense of tension that we never would otherwise.  We worry, because we know no one is safe.  George R.R. Martin is kind of an extreme example, but his series shows what I mean here.

 

Possibly. A very speculative argument. As so many of yours are.

 

Says the guy who went on and on about the things that Demandred might have done.  Or how Mashin Shin might have been changed.

 

It's true even if I don't utter it. You need a relevant counter example, one of people actually gaining power, learning magic.

 

My point was that in most fantasy series power comes with a cost.  Your exmaple of frodo putting on a ring supports my argument, not yours.  The cost of the ring is that it is tainted begins preying on his mind to make him crave it.  It's not a pretty magic ring that just makes him invisible.

 

You often tell me my opinions and arguments aren't well founded.  This one I'm borrowing from Orson Scott Card.  Is he an idiot too?

 

Once again you've used a bunch of intellectually dishonest arguments to prevent being seen as wrong.  The attack on Rand with 100,000 trollocs was badly planned and executed. 

 

The Forsaken make a series or poor decisions, and have been slaughtered by Rand at every turn.  They have no decent general, at least not that we've seen active in the series.  Mashin shin kills anything that crosses its path, and that should include the 100,000 trollocs.

 

These are the thrusts of my arguments.  You've said nothing to prove any of them inaccurate.

 

 

[Alternate34]

But Bob T Dwarf, we do know some of the saboteurs.  We know that Mesaana is in the White Tower.  We know Alviarin is there.  We know Elza Penfell is in Tear.  We know that Taim is up to no good and we know he has a whole load of male channelers with him.

 

If the saboteur problem is that it results in fancies, that applies equally to the everyone will get along and unite under Rand and totally pwn the DO.  We may be able to assume that the WT gets united.  We have no idea how much that will cost the light.  We assume the Seanchan will enter a treaty.  We have no idea how much that will cost the light.  We assume that civil wars will end.  We have no idea how much that will cost the light, but it has cost them dearly. 

 

The people who claim that the shadow has made horrible decision ignores that the light, Rand and many others, have done things that have compromised their strength as well, and rely on the fact that things will be hunky dorie in the end as everyone will see the DO and go, we better join up with that Dragon.  If the shadow has a somewhat disunified front with infighting, the light can only be said to be in total chaos as internal conflict is persistent even now.

[Arkelias]

You make a good point Alternate.  Some of the shadow's sabotuers are very well placed, and can inflict a lot of damage as a result.  Hopefully in the last three books Sanderson really plays this up.

 

I'd love to see the shadow kick the light in the balls hard, because then it would mean the shadow was competent.  I'd love to see the black ajah drag Egwene off to Shayol Gul and turn her to the shadow.  I'd love to see them steal Callandor and start using it to wreak havok on the forces of light.

 

These could be some great moments and in a few weeks I'm really hoping we see some of them!

[Bob T Dwarf]

Let's deal with this bit of specious reasoning substantively for a moment:

Another mystifying objection. True, some of these mannerisms are overused, but so what? How much would the series be changed for cutting them out? Not much. What difference does a few braid tugs more or less really make? None at all.

 

One of the things Jordan was consistent about every time the issue came up was that he always intended to put more into each book than would fit.  That was why he always, even by his own admission, was 2-3 books away from finishing the series.

 

If he had merely eliminated all of the extraneous braid yanking, posturing, sniffing, skirt smoothing, spanking, slippering, switching, caning, strapping, and just 5 words from each paragraph he devoted to describing in overblown detail rooms, furnishings, carpeting, dresses, et al, he would have saved about a hundred pages per book.  That's 100 pages that he could have devoted to some of that stuff he claimed he had been forced to leave out or push off to the next book.

 

Over the course of 11 volumes, that would be two two additional 550 page books he could have written using material already in-mind in the same amount of time.

 

In short, he could have finished the series himself.

 

That's what difference a few braid tugs more or less made.

[Mr. Micawber]

Pyrrhus was a horible general, but he still won through sheer numbers.

 

Um, Ark, bad example, mate. He was actually acknowledged as a pretty nifty fellow, who wrote a military textbook, among other things.

 

What happened was that when he came over from Epirus to help the cities of Magna Graecia, he had absolutely no idea what kind of opponent he was going up against.

 

See, the issue was not that Pyrrhus was a bad general, the issue was that the Romans fought like absolute demons. He thus won several battles, at great cost. Basically, his plans worked a lot like Robert E. Lee's - after the Seven Days, for example, Lee said "under ordinary circumstances the Federal Army would have been destroyed!" and as pretty much every Civil War historian will tell you, as McPherson writes in Battle Cry of Freedom, Lee didn't get this idea of Cannae-like Napoleonic total destruction out of his head until Pickett's division got obliterated a year later.

 

The Romans, you see, of the Republic and the Principate and, until it was almost spent, the Dominate did not accept defeat. So they always bounced back, raised a new army, found new reserves of men and material. What Pyrrhus realized was pretty much what Yamamoto realized about the US¹, namely that for an external enemy to defeat the Romans, he would have to march into Rome, burn the city, and kill all the Romans. And their freaking skeletons would probably still try to resist.

 

Essentially the Romans' attitude towards warfare was very much like the Aiel's towards the Big Guy;

 

"Til shade is gone,

til water is gone

Into the shadow with teeth bared

Screaming defiance with the last breath

To spit in Sightblinder’s eye on the Last Day."

 

After beating the living daylights out of those psychopaths and having practically nothing but casualties to show for it, Pyrrhus basically said, screw this, and went home, without actually having lost. The Greeks and sundry in Magna Graecia fairly soon after found themselves in of the Republic's game bag.

 

 

1. that the Japanese, to win, would have to march across the US and force the President to sign a surrender in the White House, which Imperial Cabinet interpreted in the exact opposite way as his intent, thinking "Awesomez! A Challenge!"

[Nightstrike]

I'd love to see the shadow kick the light in the balls hard, because then it would mean the shadow was competent.  I'd love to see the black ajah drag Egwene off to Shayol Gul and turn her to the shadow.  I'd love to see them steal Callandor and start using it to wreak havok on the forces of light.

 

These could be some great moments and in a few weeks I'm really hoping we see some of them!

 

>:(  Arkelias, you sound suspiciously like a shadowsworn.

 

Someone please take him to the Chair of Remorse.

 

:P

[Arkelias]

*offs Nightstrike* Now my secret is safe.

 

Mic, my point was that Pyrrhus won through attrition.  He had the larger army and used numbers to overwhelm his opponents. 

 

Do you agree with Ares that numbers are a minor factor in war?  Or just that I could have selected a better historical example?

[Durinax]

I think he wanted to point out it wasnt the best historical example. Numbers are very important, but about as important as terrain, and battlefield conditions

[Mr. Micawber]

*offs Nightstrike* Now my secret is safe.

 

Mic, my point was that Pyrrhus won through attrition.  He had the larger army and used numbers to overwhelm his opponents.  

 

Do you agree with Ares that numbers are a minor factor in war?  Or just that I could have selected a better historical example?

 

No, Pyrrhus won because of numbers and because he was a brilliant tactician. If he had not had *both* he would have been destroyed like so many other opponents of the Republic.

 

Numbers are absolutely not a minor factor; as Koba said, "Quantity has a quality all its own", which the Soviets proved. But their superior numbers would not have turned the tide had they not also learned how to fight the Reich.

 

And if you look at the qualitative advantages possessed by the Lightforces, you'd need to conclude that the Shadow could not win unless they outnumber them. Remember, they routinely outnumbered the Ten Nations, but lost even then.

 

The better thing to say is that superior numbers can be one of several factors leading to victory.

 

However, it would be *best* to say that seriously inferior numbers are simply never going to win - unless they have some sort of *incredible* qualitative advantages. Good examples of this would be the IDF; remember that in 73, the only point after the Independence War the Israelis might have lost, they didn't *really* come close to losing, only close to losing conventionally.

 

They had at least 20 tactical warheads, each capable of destroying a huge number of Syrian and Egyptian formations and torching Damascus and Cairo. They were never going lose.

 

The problem, as I see it, is that the Lightforces do not, collectively, appear to be outnumbered 10 or 20 to 1. Perhaps up to 5 to 1. If you combine a much more even distribution of forces with the ability of tiny numbers of Light channelers to act as repeatable nuclear warheads against not merely divisional or even corps sized formations, but freaking field armies or army groups, you've got a serious problem maintaining tension in the series.

 

With the exception, of course, of the possible defection of large numbers of those channelers - which after 11 books still has not happened - or the Big Guy directly intervening, and as the Elder God of Absolute Evil, he's pretty much in a league of his own. However, as I have said several times now, nothing the Big Guy has yet done has made me feel fear for the main characters, which is the only way I'm going to feel any kind of suspense.