Moiraine missing the obvious?

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

You're right there was no soldier mentioned in the prophacies, BUT Moiraine later explained to Rand that stories of a soldier who found a baby on the mountain led her to the TR.

Ahhh... right. I can't remember that bit, but fair enough. :)

 

Yes, she should have been more interested in him.

 

Still, given that the Shadow clearly attacked the families / houses of the 3 boys. I maintain that she acted appropriately. She is, after all opposed to all that the Shadow wants, as she repeatedly says.

 

But, given that she was drawn by rumours of Tam, then yes, she should have paid attention to Rand.

 

Having said that, she was trying to locate the saviour of the world ... Surely she's entitled to take her time?  ;)

 

A line from the Life of Brian springs to mind:

"He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy."

[Swigaro]

That knowledge should have let Moiraine know that he was the soldier who found the prophacy baby on the mountain.

 

Only, there was no soldier in the prophecy. The prophecy was essentially that the Dragon would be born on Dragonmount to a maiden. No mention of an Aiel, no mention of a soldier.

 

You're right there was no soldier mentioned in the prophacies, BUT Moiraine later explained to Rand that stories of a soldier who found a baby on the mountain led her to the TR. That soldier obviously being Tam. I just thought of this, but just knowing that Tam had been 'out and about' when the other boy's father's hadn't should have been enough to alert Moiraine to the One.

 

 

That soldier being Tam is obvious to us, as we have read the books, but would it be so to Moiraine?  I am not so sure.  So far as Moirane was told, all three boys were born in the TR.  The fact that Nyneve lied to Moiraine's face about where Rand was born suggest that no one else in the TR was likely to be any more forthcomming.  Remember also, from an outsider's perspective, Matt's father could have been just as likely to be said mysterious soldier.  After all, either Tam or Able Cauthon always win the archery and staff competitions at fair days.  Frankly, if the father's of two of the boys born within the necessary time frame could possibly be the soldier she had followed, it isn't too far a strech to assume that maybe the third father could be too, even if she couldn't find any direct evidence.  Remember how stubborn TR folk are known to be.  If a stranger, a clearly rich stranger with a heavily armed escort just showed up and started asking questions about town folk, I doubt seriously that they would be all that forthcomming.  Given more time, could she have figured out who the soldier was, and thus who the Dragon reborn was?  Absolutely.  The trolloc attack didn't give her enough time.  It has been too long since I reread, but how long was Moirane actually in Emmonds Feild before the Trollocs attacked? Two days?  No where near enought time to get any reliable information.  Finally, as it was stated previously.  The attacks were clearly aimed at all three.  What the DO wants Moirane was going to oppose.

[Hybrid]

That knowledge should have let Moiraine know that he was the soldier who found the prophacy baby on the mountain.

 

Only, there was no soldier in the prophecy. The prophecy was essentially that the Dragon would be born on Dragonmount to a maiden. No mention of an Aiel, no mention of a soldier.

 

You're right there was no soldier mentioned in the prophacies, BUT Moiraine later explained to Rand that stories of a soldier who found a baby on the mountain led her to the TR. That soldier obviously being Tam. I just thought of this, but just knowing that Tam had been 'out and about' when the other boy's father's hadn't should have been enough to alert Moiraine to the One.

But she did not know this at the time.  She explains it to Rand in TGH, then comments on how much easier it would have been if she had known Tam's history in the Two Rivers.  Also, she could not be entirely certain about Rand, though she had suspicions, because Ishamael was interested in all three ta'veren.  She could have taken Rand only, the most likely candidate, but at the risk of leaving the real Dragon Reborn to Ishamael?  Her doubt was not cleared until Rand began to channel and she learned the truth of Tam and Rand's birth.

[Luckers]

Indeed. Beyond which we know there was alot more involved in why Moiraine actually came to the Two Rivers--RJ intended to write an entire novel on the subject.

[Matt Wolf]

I've recently been thinking about this. In the Legends version of New Spring, it says that Kari al'Thor from Andor, married to Tamlin al'Thor, was on Moiraine's list. And RJ said that Moiraine lost her list sometime between New Spring and Eye of the World. But she would still recognize the name.

 

And it doesn't explain why she gave the Tracking/Compulsion Coins to Mat and Perrin. She didn't know the Dark One was hunting them until after Winternight, when only their houses were burned. She would have known that anyone born in the Two Rivers could not be the Dragon Reborn, and Mat and Perrin, with the look of the Two Rivers, and plenty of siblings, clearly were not born on the slopes of Dragonmount. Even if she didn't know what an Aiel looked like (which is unlikely, as we see Gawyn comment on Rand's Aiel-like appearance), RJ makes a point of emphasizing that he doesn't look like the rest of them. At the VERY least, that would give Moiraine reason to keep an eye on him, even if there were other reasons why he might have looked different. And being an only child to a man who had left the Two Rivers as a youth and come back with an Outlander Wife makes it much more likely that he could have been born Outside, even if people lied to her. Which, btw, seems odd, because if they were willing to tell her their birthdates, why would they hide other information? Birthdates seem like a pretty personal information, moreso than whether or not someone has travelled outside the Two Rivers.

 

My only real thought is that she she that Rand was the Dragon Reborn, and the Pattern made her take the other two.

[Kat_152]

On 9/11/2008 at 5:30 AM, Guest The Thin Inn Keeper said:

Quote

born outside of the Two Rivers,

 

When does Nyn pass this info on? I was under the impression it was after they had left.

 

She doesn't.  I think Morraine just suspected she was not telling the truth.  I don't think she had much experience lying.

[DemandredFO]

she might've lied before just not about something so specific as were any of the 20 year olds around here born outside?

[Sabio]

Yes we don't know the exact questions Moiriane asked Ny or other people. Imagine a stranger walks up to you and starts asking for personal info about people you know.  You would probably be like who is this lady.  Especially the stubborn Two Rivers people.  So Moiraine had to ask questions but make is so the people wouldn't  get suspicious.  Moiraine may of had an idea it was Rand, but could she risk it?  Could she simply ignore the other two and focus just on Rand?  Maybe if she had a few more days in the Two Rivers she could piece it together, don't forget she hadn't been in Edmods field very long so it was limited what she could learn.  The when the Trollocs attacked and it was clear they were after all three, I'm sure that added a little doubt in her mind which boy it was.  

 

 

[Agitel]

She probably would have asked more questions if not for Winternight, and the Shadow targeted all three. If the Shadow wanted them that's good enough for her. 

[jsbrads]

LoL, y’all acting like Moraine had one lead. She had thousands of leads. How many babies were born near Dragonmount in a period of time? How many rumors as to who took which child? Where did they go?

Moraine’s lead to Tam wasn’t marked with an * indicating this one was the Dragon reborn.

Rand was baby 1857th on a list of thousands. Tam married a redhead, no one in TR had any reason to believe Rand wasn’t Kari’s child. Moraine didn’t have Tam’s name and home address on the back of a postcard. Any outsider would have assumed Mat’s father was the one who had a son born outside. If Mat’s mom and dad had gone to Dragonmount during the Aiel war, Abel could have had Mat there and then have a bunch of other children who look just like him and his wife and Mat could be the Dragon Reborn.

[Sabio]

 No one is saying she should of come straight to the Two Rivers. She had a lot of leads to wander the land with.  What some are saying is that as soon as she met Rand, with his looking so different from other two rivers folks, that she should of known he was the Dragon Reborn. Which is wrong since she had to be sure.  What they are missing is was never said the Dragon Reborn was born to an aiel lady, so his hair and eyes didn't mean it had to be Rand.  Or just because he looks different doesn't mean his dad wasn't a merchant guard who decided to stay and raise a family etc. Hence why she had to carefully ask about people coming in, family histories, or being born outside.  Had she of had more time she probably would of figured out it was Rand, but the Trollocs ended her investigation.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Sabio

[jsbrads]

No, being born at Dragonmount is unrelated to looking different from all the other people in Two Rivers, so it isn’t even a hint. Moraine didn’t need to consider Rand more than any other teen and she had no reason to presume Rand over Mat and Perrin once the targeted attacks happened. The first clue she gets is Bela not being tired. And even that isn’t enough, it just meant Rand could channel, not that he was the Dragon Reborn. Moraine is looking for The DR, the DO could have just been targeting men Terminator style who would resist the DO and help the DR. 

[solarz]

On 9/10/2008 at 3:21 PM, Jambo said:

From NS we know that Moiraine heard the Fortelling about Rand, and she has a very in-depth knowledge of the Prophacies, so how come when she got to the Two Rivers she wasn't able to pick out Rand as the Dragon Reborn? I mean if she was able to narrow it down to him, Mat, and Perrin just based on their birth dates, should she not have been able to narrow things down further? If people were willing to talk about the boys' birthdays you would think it wouldn't be that much extra effort on Moiraine's part to ask if perchance one of them were born outside of the Two Rivers. It wouldn't take a genius to figure out that 'Gee Tam al'Thor was in the army fighting the aiel, and when he finally came home he had a son with him, and when the son was grown up he looked just like a flaming aiel!'

 

So you've got a boy born within the proper timeframe, born outside of the Two Rivers, and he looks like an Aiel, how much more obvious could it have been? Part of the Prophacies are fullfilled right there. I don't know if there were some other factors at work that prevented Moiraine from seeing the obvious, but to me it seems like she came close to dropping the ball.

 

No, it was not obvious at all. You only think this because you have hindsight bias.

 

Moiraine had no inkling that the Dragon Reborn would be associated with the Aiel. Nobody did. Nobody knew anything about the Aiel except that they were crazy badasses.

 

People in Emond's Field knew Tam left the Two Rivers when he was young and came back with a wife and a babe. That's it. Nobody knew what Tam did, and most people did not even realize that Rand was born outside the Two Rivers. Nynaeve knew it, and she lied to her. It would have been highly unlikely for anyone else to tell Moiraine Rand was born outside. Therefore, although Moiraine likely had suspicions, she did not have any proof. Rand looked different, true, but everyone said that was because his mother was an outsider. Just because Rand's mom was an outsider didn't mean Rand was born on the slopes of Dragonmount. That would have been a huge assumption to make.

 

The Trollocs attacked only 3 places on Winternight: Rand's, Perrin's, and Mat's. Therefore, it was clear that the Shadow wanted those 3 boys, and what the Shadow wants, Moiraine opposes. It would have been the utmost folly for her to take only Rand based on her suspicions and leave the other two boys: what if she was wrong? The Dragon Reborn would have fallen into the Shadow's hands then.

 

As Moiraine is wont to say: "The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills." The Pattern wove Rand, Mat and Perrin closely for a reason. If Moiraine had only taken Rand with her, and left Mat and Perrin to be killed or captured by the Shadow, then the world would have been doomed.

Edited September 16, 2019 by solarz