Tarmon Gaidin: Moiraine's Return & The Strike on Shayol Ghul

[aevogt]

"Quote

Hmmm, I wonder if someone with sufficient smarts could stack some of this rubble up into some sort of defensive structure?  Farmers don't know anything about building fences though, so that probably wouldn't work.      (For the record that was dripping with sarcasm.)

 

Not an effective one, no.  A farmer's fence is not for fortification, its for keeping cows in their pastures. or marking a property line.  Different engineering principles are involved.  Could they stack up some rocks?  Sure.  Could they build a wall across the entire pass?  No.  And if they can't, then all those piles of rocks are going to do is get in their way.  If you can flank an incomplete wall with a superior force, that wall becomes an obstacle for the defenders as much as the attackers."

 

I don't mean to sound flippant here but...

 

I'd imagine George Pickett (as well as Pettigrew, Trimble, Armistead and Wilcox for that matter) may have thought the same thing before losing 50% of his men to a low stone wall with a single right angle to it.  This after crossing a field better than a mile wide.  I'll grant that there probably won't be canister shot or musket volleys at Tarwin's Gap (at least until Mat shows up - what a gleeful slaughter that would be) but bows and crossbows can actually fire faster than your average American Civil War infantryman. 

 

Even if the Gap is three miles wide, call that roughly 5400 yards of front.  If there are 100,000 men defending that front, that's 18 men per yard of front line.  So, for every three feet, you have nearly 20 defenders into which a single trolloc at a time is charging.  Since trollocs are bigger and wider than your average human, and would need at least some lateral room to run during a charge, that would mean that each advancing Trolloc line owuld have fewer than 3000 bodies presented to the front.  A stone wall of even a few feet, or even large piles of stones with gaps, would likely be enough to falter or break up the charge so it couldn't slam full force into the human lines.  (even though trollocs could jump it they would lose momentum doing so; picture Olympic hurdles as compared to the sprint; it takes longer and they're not even being shot at) With bowman behind the pikes, and say even a third of the human strength in reserve behind the bowmen, I think the Gap could be held for at least a matter of days. 

 

As for leaving the Borderlands defensless, I doubt Lan will attract many (if any) actual soldiers.  Recall that he won't be doing any recruiting himself.  Nyneave took care of that for him but not by going to the local lords or outpost commanders, she sought out Malkiere and practically shamed them as a Malkiere herself, albeit by marriage, into following Lan.  The first man she approached (that we know of) was neither a farmer nor a soldier, a gem merchant, but one who knows the sword, while looking for messenger pigeons.  He brought two others with him, both tough men with reputations for violence.  If they not exactly battle hardened, they know how to fight.  That was in the very first town she visited, with the intention to visit several more.  That kind of news would almost certainly fly ahead of Lan just via merchants, peddlers and pigeons.  Is it really so hard to imagine 100,000 men joining Lan.  If there are 250,000 fighting men left in the borderlands and the 500,000 total soldiers are even 25% of the population, then there would be less than 2 million people in the whole of the borderlands. I don't think it's reaching to say that 1 in 20 will march with Lan and that they will be the ones who will know how to fight.

 

 

As an alternate explanation:

If the Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills, and we know it does, it almost sounds like the Wheel is arranging for an army to be present at Tarwim's Gap.  That's just the impression I got when I first read that passage. 

 

I'm not saying this is necessarily what will happen, just how I would do it.

[RobertAlexWillis]

The way I read it, Lan thought he was going North to die.  He started to catch on to Nyn's plan when she forced his promise, thinking that she meant to send him to southern Shienar.  He isn't trying to send a message, he's trying to do his duty.

 

Yes.  Lan did intend to go north and die by himself in the Blight.  Despite being in love with Nynaeve, an important powerful part of him has wanted to die since Moiraine went through the arch in Cairhien.  The only reason that he stayed alive is because he had no real choice, but the only things that can ever bring him out of this is love and a purpose.  Nynaeve knew that protecting her, important as it is to him, wasn't enough.  So, she arranged to give him back his purpose in the Blight ... but to do it in such a way that he had a responsibility to keep himself alive.  She arranged for him to have an army to be responsible for.  We've seen Lan in a command position before ... at the beginning of New Spring.  He takes that responsibility seriously, as he should.  If he were by himself, I've no doubt that he would die a meaningless death, alone in the Blight.  But Nynaeve doesn't want him to die.  So, she gave him the only thing that will stop him from doing that ... the responsibility to keep others alive.

 

That would be true if Lan had ever led men into the blight.

 

Yes, that quote you gave tells what Lan had always done in the Blight before.  Nynaeve made him promise that he would not do the same thing this time.  That was the whole point of extracting the oath from him.  And he did indeed figure it out.

 

But look ... lets take this from the perspective you're proposing.  Lets say Lan does take the attitude that "Well, they can ride with me, but I'm not commanding them, and I'm not responsible for them."  If thats the case, he's going to leave a train of men strung out behind him all across the Borderlands.  Your average farmer is not going to be able to keep up with Lan.  You average lifelong soldier is not going to be able to keep up with Lan.  They won't reach the Gap together, in any kind of order.  They won't have a command structure, or be organized in any way.  That will just make the slaughter easier.

 

Nynaeve has mustered the courage to send her beloved directly into harm's way.  She carried out her plan so quickly because she did not want to loose her nerve.  Yes, over time she'll be able to settle her emotions, but only because she will not be subjected to the reality of her husband on a regular basis.  Everytime she visits him she risks breaking his resolve and/or hers, a risk that I don't think that she is likely to take.

 

I think you underestimate them both.

 

Everything else is just rehashing, so I'll skip to this part.

 

And tacticians always agree?  Listen, we don't even know what the condidtions will be.

 

Of course tacticians don't always agree.  Some are wrong.  Those are known as the "dead".

 

As to not knowing the general conditions, I simply disagree.  I think the information is there.  Jordan didn't draw us a picture, he didn't sit down and list numbers and give dimensions.  He rarely does.  He tells stories.  He gives us history.  And then, we pull the clues out of that.

 

So, ultimately, we'll see what happens.  I think this has run its course.  Besides, Jordan said that the Shadow still has some surprises in store for the world, so maybe something completely unexpected will happen.

 

My predictions boil down to two very conditional things.  1) Lan will not get more than 50,000 or so people.  2) If he gets to Tarwin's Gap before the Trollocs come (not at all a certain proposition) and tries to make a stand with his 50,000, he will be crushed, without doing any meaningful damage.

 

Those are both very testable.  Wait until AMoL comes out, and we'll see.  And hey, if I'm wrong, I'll happily say so.

 

I'd imagine George Pickett (as well as Pettigrew, Trimble, Armistead and Wilcox for that matter) may have thought the same thing before losing 50% of his men to a low stone wall with a single right angle to it.  This after crossing a field better than a mile wide.  I'll grant that there probably won't be canister shot or musket volleys at Tarwin's Gap (at least until Mat shows up - what a gleeful slaughter that would be) but bows and crossbows can actually fire faster than your average American Civil War infantryman.

 

Um ... yeah ... cannons firing canister shot at you for, oh, say almost a mile makes a huge difference, so when you generously "grant" that, you basically derail your entire argument.  And Longstreet knew that they were screwed going in. 

 

That little stone wall running along made absolutely no difference ... in fact, Armistead's and Garnett's brigasdes, who actually made it that far, breached the Union line at that point, until reinforcements were brought up (of course, this didn't take very long since the Union had a concave front along Cemetery Ridge.  Kemper's brigade, who made the charge with those three, got slaughtered not because of the low stone wall, but because they got flanked and there were Union soldiers shooting at them practically from behind.

 

Regular bows can more quickly than muskets, but crossbows cannot (these guys aren't going to have the Band's cool crossbows ... in fact, unless he does get regular soldiers, very, very few of them will have any kind of crossbow), and regular bows don't have nearly the power or the range of firearms, and carrying more than 20-25 arrows becomes cumbersome.  You also can't stick a bayonet onto the end of your bow and countercharge. 

 

Again, this is tactical comparison that it completely irrelevant.

 

There are two parts of military philosophy, strategy and tactics.  Strategy is planning overall objectives and determining underlying principles.  It deals with how an army is formed, and what it is used for.  Tactics deal with specific battle plans, troop movements, etc.  Comparing the specific tactics of any battle with cannons and guns to any specific tactical movement in Randland is pointless; the technology makes too much of a difference.  But the rules of overall strategic planning still apply.  Thats why when Patton says, in essence, "The point of war is to kill the other guy, not die yourself," it still applies.  That is a strategic principle that is the same whether you're shooting your opponent with a sling or a ballistic missile.  But the specifics of how troops move, etc?  Those examples, from the modern era, simply don't apply.

 

Even if the Gap is three miles wide, call that roughly 5400 yards of front.  If there are 100,000 men defending that front, that's 18 men per yard of front line.  So, for every three feet, you have nearly 20 defenders into which a single trolloc at a time is charging.  Since trollocs are bigger and wider than your average human, and would need at least some lateral room to run during a charge, that would mean that each advancing Trolloc line owuld have fewer than 3000 bodies presented to the front.  A stone wall of even a few feet, or even large piles of stones with gaps, would likely be enough to falter or break up the charge so it couldn't slam full force into the human lines.  (even though trollocs could jump it they would lose momentum doing so; picture Olympic hurdles as compared to the sprint; it takes longer and they're not even being shot at) With bowman behind the pikes, and say even a third of the human strength in reserve behind the bowmen, I think the Gap could be held for at least a matter of days.

 

First of all, stringing your entire force out into one solid line "x" number of men deep is just asking to be crushed.  The opponent will charge one portion of your line, and then your flanked.  In military terms, flanked=screwed.  This is how Alexander repeatedly crushed opponents even when outnumbered.  The battle of Issus is a good example, which uses no technology that is not available in Randland (Alexander was outnumbered two to one by even the most conservative estimates).  Alexander managed to break a hole in the Persian line on the right flank, and got his Companion Cavalry behind Darius' lines.  Not only was he able to threaten Darius command position (forcing him to flee the field), but he was then able to charge the rear of the Persian line where they were about to break through his own left.  If Lan deploys his men as you propose, the Trollocs would be in a similar position, except that instead of being outnumbered 2 to 1, they would have the advantage of numbers AND a more mobile position.

 

Second, I have admitted all along that a breastwork would be better than nothing ... but not by very much.  Let me reiterate to be perfectly clear.  Lan can hastily fortify the pass.  But the hasty fortifications will not be enough to make a meaningful difference.  If Lan's army kills say 250,000 Trollocs instead of 150,000 Trollocs (both generous estimates in my opinion), do you really think it will make a difference in the overall picture?  I don't.  And thats about all the difference that the hasty fortifications will make.

 

Finally, there is the issue of equipment.  You blithely assume that Lan has the option of putting lines of pikemen in front of his bows.  That would slightly increase the effectiveness of the breastwork, but where is Lan going to get tens of thousands of pikes?  Gareth Bryne can't get enough for his 50,000 men, and he has Aes Sedai bankrolling him.  Lan would need a much higher proportion of men with pikes for what you describe than Bryne needs for what he's doing.

 

Also, pikemen don't ride.  Pikemen are infantry.  And if Lan is gathering infantry, he'll never make it to the Gap in time.

 

(Which is, incidentally, yet another reason that he is unlikely to try to fortify the Gap.  Any soldiers [or farmers] that he gathers, if he has any chance of making the trip in less than six months, will have to be cavalry.  Cavalry don't really have much use for walls ... )

[Vambram]

Anyone of you all open to the real possibility that the Borderlander armies currently at Andor will find out about the near imminent Trolloc horde invasion, and therefore react by returning back to the Borderlands with all of the 200,000 in order to try to stop that massive threat to their homelands?

[cloglord]

Anyone of you all open to the real possibility that the Borderlander armies currently at Andor will find out about the near imminent Trolloc horde invasion, and therefore react by returning back to the Borderlands with all of the 200,000 in order to try to stop that massive threat to their homelands?

 

Absolutely I'm open to the idea, It would take the better part of 2 months for Lan to get to T'sG, and lots of things can happen in 2 months.

 

she arranged to give him back his purpose in the Blight ... but to do it in such a way that he had a responsibility to keep himself alive.

 

I disagree, I think she did it in such a way that he had an army to keep him alive, not so that he would have to live for his army.

 

Yes, that quote you gave tells what Lan had always done in the Blight before.  Nynaeve made him promise that he would not do the same thing this time.  That was the whole point of extracting the oath from him.  And he did indeed figure it out.

 

The quote is applicable, because Lan brings up his unwillingness to lead men in this context.  Myn did not make him promise to do it differently, she said, (and I'm paraphrasing, but I'm 99% sure of my correctness,) "If men have rode with you before then they can ride with you now."  SHe did not extact a promise from him to act differently than he had in the past, she extracted a promise from him to do as he always had in past trips to the blight.

 

But look ... lets take this from the perspective you're proposing.  Lets say Lan does take the attitude that "Well, they can ride with me, but I'm not commanding them, and I'm not responsible for them."  If thats the case, he's going to leave a train of men strung out behind him all across the Borderlands.  Your average farmer is not going to be able to keep up with Lan.  You average lifelong soldier is not going to be able to keep up with Lan.  They won't reach the Gap together, in any kind of order.  They won't have a command structure, or be organized in any way.  That will just make the slaughter easier.

 

And yet, they won't have to keep up, because Nynaeve was very clver and unleashed the rumor mill ahead of him, by having the Malkieri merchant send a pigeon to everyone of this numerous contacts in the borderlands.  Every common soldier, miner, trader, and farmer that decided tof ollow him would have a giant head start on him, that is except for the Saldeans.  The saldeans who are world renown as the best and fastest light calvary in Randland...Don't foget who the lord of Fal Dara is either.  True he did accompany Easar to the borderlander meeting in the blackhills, but we have not seen Agelmar since, I wouldn't bet that he isn't back at Fal Dara in command of Shienarien forces and organizing Lan's army...

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

I disagree, I think she did it in such a way that he had an army to keep him alive, not so that he would have to live for his army.

 

Then he will outrun anyone who cannot keep up.  Even the Band couldn't keep up with Lan.  So he'll arrive with alot less than 50,000.

 

The quote is applicable, because Lan brings up his unwillingness to lead men in this context.  Myn did not make him promise to do it differently, she said, (and I'm paraphrasing, but I'm 99% sure of my correctness,) "If men have rode with you before then they can ride with you now."  SHe did not extact a promise from him to act differently than he had in the past, she extracted a promise from him to do as he always had in past trips to the blight.

 

Then he will outrun anyone who cannot keep up.  Even the Band couldn't keep up with Lan.  So he'll arrive with alot less than 50,000.

 

True he did accompany Easar to the borderlander meeting in the blackhills, but we have not seen Agelmar since, I wouldn't bet that he isn't back at Fal Dara in command of Shienarien forces and organizing Lan's army...

 

Uh ... what?  Why would Agelmar ride south with Easar, only to turn around and ride back north?  Agelmar is there commanding Shienar's forces.  Even if he does find out about Lan, he's in the middle of Andor, heading toward Murandy right now.  He can't get back to Fal Dara any faster than Lan can get there.

 

There will be some men waiting there for him, of course.  When I said that he would arrive "alone" I was exaggerating for the purpose of underlining the point.  But he will certainly leave men strung out behind him all across the Borderlands, and if he is not "commanding" the men with him, then they will not be organized.  They won't be an army.  They'll just be a bunch of fellas, each in his own little company.  The Trollocs will grind that into dogmeat.

 

Lan's reluctance to lead men is a personal preference, not an oath he has sworn.  He has enough integrity to know that if thousands of men are there because of him, then they are his responsibility, whether he wants them or not.  He will take command before watching them get cut to ribbons.  And once he is their commander, he'll be trying to keep them alive.

 

Men may have ridden with him before, but not like this ... not under the Golden Crane, and not in anything approaching the numbers that either of us is proposing.  Riding through the Blight with Bukama and a small group of professional soldiers who Lan knows can take care of themselves is one thing.  This is something very different, as Nynaeve knew it would be.  She knows about Lan's sense of responsibility.  He didn't want large numbers of men to ride with him because he knew he would feel responsible for them.  Nynaeve has insured that, whether its my "less than 50,000" or your "lots and lots more", that its a number high enough that he will feel responsible for keeping them alive.

 

All that said, we simply assess their characters differently, so we're not going to make any progress on that.

 

As to the possibility that the Borderlanders will return north, that depends on how quickly they hear about it, and whether or not they've made accommodation with someone who can Travel.  I'm not sure how they'll hear about it until the Trollocs are actually coming ... and if they do get there in time to stand with Lan ... then there hasn't been much point in his ride, has there?  The regular armies have come back. 

 

Unless you're saying they find out because of his ride.  In which case it would have been important ... but not because of the "army" he can raise, just as an attention grabbing mission.  I have no problem with that.  My only contention all along has been that, as a purely military solution, Lan and whatever army he can raise will not be enough to either stop, or significantly hinder, the Trolloc advance, by making a stand in Tarwin's Gap.

[Vambram]

As to the possibility that the Borderlanders will return north, that depends on how quickly they hear about it, and whether or not they've made accommodation with someone who can Travel.  I'm not sure how they'll hear about it until the Trollocs are actually coming ... and if they do get there in time to stand with Lan ... then there hasn't been much point in his ride, has there?  The regular armies have come back. 

 

Unless you're saying they find out because of his ride.  In which case it would have been important ... but not because of the "army" he can raise, just as an attention grabbing mission.  I have no problem with that.  My only contention all along has been that, as a purely military solution, Lan and whatever army he can raise will not be enough to either stop, or significantly hinder, the Trolloc advance, by making a stand in Tarwin's Gap.

 

Yes, that is what I am suggesting, that the call to flock to the banner of the Golden Crane will cause news of Lan's ride and the gathering army with him to be heard by the Borderlander rulers and nobles in Andor via the various methods of spreading messages and rumors.

This, I believe, will indeed bring about the Borderlanders' armies quickly back up to the area there, towards Tarwin's Gap and bring in much needed reinforcements for the army that Lan will be in command of that is trying to delay the invasion of the Trolloc hordes.

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Certainly they will find out about it eventually, but they are almost as far south of the Gap as Lan is west of it ... and he will be riding far faster than they can, not to mention his head start.  So, it depends on whether or not they have someone who can make gateways ... which probably means an accommodation with Rand.  Otherwise, they won't get there in time.

[cloglord]

Then he will outrun anyone who cannot keep up.  Even the Band couldn't keep up with Lan.  So he'll arrive with alot less than 50,000.

 

You did read the part about nearly everyone in the borderlands having a giant head start right?

 

Uh ... what?  Why would Agelmar ride south with Easar, only to turn around and ride back north?

 

He rode south to the black hills to witness the bloodyhandshake ceremony.  He, nor any of the other highranking borderlanders mentioned at that ceremony, have been mentioned once since.  This is despite their being a detailed report from Merrielle and the POV of Elayne when she visits the camp.  So to turn the question back around, why wouldn't easar send agelmar back to command the troops defending the blight?  Easar flat out says in WH Ch 27 that he believes the last battle will take place in the blight, and that the rulers are upset that Rand hasn't been paying them enough attention.  So why wouldn't he send Agelmar back?  Where are  Serailla, Baldhere, Ishigari Terasian, Kyril Shianri,  Alesune Chulin, and  Kalyan Ramsin.  They were all important figures in the borderlands, they were all mentioned at the ceremony, but not a one of them has been mentioned since either. 

 

There will be some men waiting there for him, of course.  When I said that he would arrive "alone" I was exaggerating for the purpose of underlining the point.  But he will certainly leave men strung out behind him all across the Borderlands, and if he is not "commanding" the men with him, then they will not be organized.  They won't be an army.  They'll just be a bunch of fellas, each in his own little company.  The Trollocs will grind that into dogmeat.

 

Could be, or it could be that Serailla, Baldhere, Ishigari Terasian, Kyril Shianri,  Alesune Chulin, Kalyan Ramsin, and Agelmar are in the borderlands, have heard of the rise of the golden crane, and are commanding their own forces, on their way to the Gap.  Kinda full circle huh?  Agelamar is the one that said way back in the 1st book that borderlanders would rise and follow Lan, and there he would be at the last raising men to follow Lan.  The man who is finally doing, according to the rulers of the borderlands, what Rand has forgotten to.

 

Men may have ridden with him before, but not like this ... not under the Golden Crane, and not in anything approaching the numbers that either of us is proposing.

 

And yet it is Lan who makes this distinction, he is the one who brings it up.  I think that Lan's words speak louder than either of our opinions on this matter, but I don't think that I'm going to convince you, so...I think you were right when you said

 

All that said, we simply assess their characters differently, so we're not going to make any progress on that.

 

 

[aevogt]

"The opponent will charge one portion of your line, and then your flanked."

 

I just want to make sure I understand you correctly because in every volume of military history I've ever read, a flanking maneuver comes from the side of the defenders, not from the front. 

 

It's pretty much moot.  Either RJ sent Lan to his death or he didn't.  Can't wait to find out.

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

I just want to make sure I understand you correctly because in every volume of military history I've ever read, a flanking maneuver comes from the side of the defenders, not from the front.

 

Yes.  When you break through someone's line, by charging just one portion of it, then the you can come at them from the side.  They then either have to deal with the attack (which is now on their flank) or withdraw.

 

Here is a very simplistic map sequence to illustrate.

 

This is a rough image of them lined up.  Keep in mind there are way more Trollocs here.

 

 

This is a rough image of them being flanked.

 

 

There isn't much Lan can do to stop this.  Any reserves he keeps will simply weaken his line, and the Trollocs can outnumber them anyway.  If he moves reinforcements from anywhere along the line, the Trollocs simply hit that spot.  They have overhead surveillance, so they can exploit weaknesses in the line fairly quickly.

 

Once Trollocs are on the back side of Lan's lines, he'll have to either turn his line to face them, in which case he has no way to withdraw, since the Trollocs can then move troops behind him to cut off his retreat through the pass, or he would have to withdraw immediately while the way was still open behind him.

 

He rode south to the black hills to witness the bloodyhandshake ceremony.

 

If you really believe that, then there is no possible way to continue this conversation.  Easar took his best commander several hundred leagues from his normal post, just to witness a ceremony?  Then said "OK, ride home now."  And all the other rulers did the same?  That is truly absurd.  Talk about unsupported assumptions.

 

Finally, I have to say, that if Lan does as you say, lets thousands gather in his name, and "ride with" him to their death, but refuses to "lead" them ... that would be the most revolting betrayal of trust we have seen in this book.

[cloglord]

Easar took his best commander several hundred leagues from his normal post, just to witness a ceremony?  Then said "OK, ride home now."  And all the other rulers did the same?  That is truly absurd.  Talk about unsupported assumptions.

 

Ever been married?  I needed witnesses for my wedding, and it didn't have any rulers at it at all.  How about a notary?  It takes an important and official person to witness an important and official event.  Do you think that the easar would ride off, without leaving someone in charge?  How do you think he went on a secret trip, if he went blabbing it around that he was leaving random noble X in charge until he got back from his super secret trip?  It was a secret until they met and did the deed.  Because it was a secret ceremony, it required notable witnesses to give it legitimacy after the fact.  Now that everyone knows that the borderlanders are together in Braem wood, the nobles who witnessed it can tell the borderlanders why, and have it believed.  I will grant you that it is an assumption, but it is also supported by the fact that not one of the 7 nobles that accompanied their rulers has been spotted with the borderlanders since.  The assumption that they all went to Braem wood is also an assumption, one that is not supported by anything but the fact that you read it that way.

 

Finally, I have to say, that if Lan does as you say, lets thousands gather in his name, and "ride with" him to their death, but refuses to "lead" them ... that would be the most revolting betrayal of trust we have seen in this book.

 

This is a gross oversimplification of what I've tried to say.  Here's an analogy for you.  The president of the US is the commander and chief.  Does it mean that he dictates military strategy, does he pick out specific tactics?  Nope, he leads without leading.  He picks the direction, and the military follows.  Eisenhower, was a military man, does that mean that he did away with the military establishment, and did it all himself?  Lan's the flag, he's the country, he's the commander in chief, he's the symbol, and there is no greater symbol of borderlander pride.  Yes, or course he will care for the people who follow him, but sometimes, presidents have to make hard decisions, and people die.  Disagree with me all you like, but to oversimplify and misrepresent my POV, does not do justice to the effort we've put into this discussion. 

[RobertAlexWillis]

I will grant you that it is an assumption, but it is also supported by the fact that not one of the 7 nobles that accompanied their rulers has been spotted with the borderlanders since.

'

 

Um ... we've seen a grand total of one formal reception, hastily arranged, that lasted perhaps 30 minutes, and you're taking that as "support" for your assumption that all of the Borderland rulers sent their chief military commanders home?

 

Wow.

 

The assumption that they all went to Braem wood is also an assumption, one that is not supported by anything but the fact that you read it that way.

 

Oh, and the fact that the last place we saw them was with the armies they command.  A commander staying with his army ... what an insane assumption.

 

Here's an analogy for you.  The president of the US is the commander and chief.  Does it mean that he dictates military strategy, does he pick out specific tactics?  Nope, he leads without leading.  He picks the direction, and the military follows.  Eisenhower, was a military man, does that mean that he did away with the military establishment, and did it all himself?  Lan's the flag, he's the country, he's the commander in chief, he's the symbol, and there is no greater symbol of borderlander pride.

 

Seriously?  You seriously think that is an apt analogy?  Eisenhower didn't refuse to lead his men.  He was a general in the established command structure of the US armed forces/Allied forces, and then as President, he appointed commanders in the established command structure of the US armed forces.  None of that is in any way comparable to the situation that Lan either is in, or will be putting the  people who ride to his banner in.  Not only does the President, as commander-in-chief, actually assume responsibility for decision making, but the military hierarchies of Randland are so different from those of a modern Federal Republic that your analogy is ... laughable.

 

Disagree with me all you like, but to oversimplify and misrepresent my POV, does not do justice to the effort we've put into this discussion.

 

OK then.  We just disagree.  There is seriously no point in continuing this.  Any effort I have put in has been a complete waste.  This is like pounding on a steel plated granite block with a four bristles from a broken toothbrush.

[cloglord]

Um ... we've seen a grand total of one formal reception, hastily arranged, that lasted perhaps 30 minutes, and you're taking that as "support" for your assumption that all of the Borderland rulers sent their chief military commanders home?

 

We've also had Merielle's report, her report were she mentions having found the shienariens first, her report where she does not mention any of the missing borderlander notables.  And yes it is "support," I didn't classify it as evidence or fact.  It supports the assumption therby taking it out of the realm of "unsupported assumption."  So why haven't any of the mentions of the borderlanders since that meeting mentioned that one of the great captains was in Braem wood commanding an army of 200,000?  Its big news every other time one of the great captains does somthing, why not here?

 

Oh, and the fact that the last place we saw them was with the armies they command.  A commander staying with his army ... what an insane assumption.

 

I didn't say it was insane, I said it was unsupported.  In fact I think it is a very likely assumption, but I, unlike some others I could name, do not refuse to think outside of my little box, and prefer to question my assumptions.  In this case I found a perfectly legitimate alternate assumption, so I have decided not to rule out either.

 

as President, he appointed commanders in the established command structure of the US armed forces.

And the borderlanders don't have an established command structure?  What about Ingtar's speech in TGH where he talks about how every man down to the bottom knows who is above him?

 

Not only does the President, as commander-in-chief, actually assume responsibility for decision making

He makes policy desicions, his military command makes military decisions.

the military hierarchies of Randland are so different from those of a modern Federal Republic that your analogy is ... laughable.

An analogy is never perfect, or it would be a description of the its own object.  So laugh all you want, I think I read that section of reader's digest once, "All in a day's military analogies..." 

 

Any effort I have put in has been a complete waste.  This is like pounding on a steel plated granite block with a four bristles from a broken toothbrush.

 

Seriously?  You think this is an apt analogy?  Your arguments are so much more abrasive than four bristles from a broken toothbrush that your analogy is ... laughable.  And I seriously did laugh  :D

 

Edited for typos

[RobertAlexWillis]

We've also had Merielle's report, her report were she mentions having found the shienariens first, her report where she does not mention any of the missing borderlander notables.

 

She didn't report anyone's presence other than the rulers and the Sisters.

 

So why haven't any of the mentions of the borderlanders since that meeting mentioned that one of the great captains was in Braem wood commanding an army of 200,000?  Its big news every other time one of the great captains does somthing, why not here?

 

We did have a mention of him, when they Borderland rulers met.  Since then, nothing.  So, if all the movements of the great captains are reported on, and he went back to Shienar, then we should have heard about that, too, right?  Or do your fabricated conditions only apply to other peoples arguments?

 

If anything, the fact that we've heard nothing new since indicates that he's still where he was.  There was no reason for him to be present at Elayne's meeting, and thats the only other time we've seen anything in the Borderlanders camp.

 

And yes it is "support," I didn't classify it as evidence or fact.

 

I'm sorry, but I define "support" as a fact or evidence that actually indicates an idea is correct, not a lack of information that simply allows you to speculate as you wish.  There is as much "support" for the idea that they all spontaneously took a vacation to the Sea Folk Isles as there is for your scenario.

 

I didn't say it was insane, I said it was unsupported.

 

But its not unsupported.  Unlike your scenario, we've actually seen them with the army that I'm saying they're still with.  And we haven't seen them anywhere else.  Thats an actual positive indication, with no counter-indication.  Thats called supporting evidence.

 

And the borderlanders don't have an established command structure?  What about Ingtar's speech in TGH where he talks about how every man down to the bottom knows who is above him?

 

If Lan doesn't take command, then they will be operating without that structure.  Kind of blows Ingtar's speech out of the water.

 

He makes policy desicions, his military command makes military decisions.

 

Which is why your analogy is a bad one.  You're comparing Lan to the head of pseudo-democratic, which he isn't.  But even that head of state makes sure that there is a tactical chain of command in place, that ultimately answers to him (or her ... I better get used to that).

 

An analogy is never perfect, or it would be a description of the its own object.  So laugh all you want, I think I read that section of reader's digest once, "All in a day's military analogies..."

 

Which is why, in general, analogies are misleading.  In order to be useful, an analogy has to get alot closer to what its describing than yours did.

 

And Reader's Digest has a joke section called "Humor in Uniform", and another called "All in a Day's Work."  Neither has anything to do with analogies.

 

Seriously?  You think this is an apt analogy?  Your arguments are so much more abrasive than four bristles from a broken toothbrush that your analogy is ... laughable.  And I seriously did laugh

 

I was referring to the futility of my arguments, with regard to their ultimate effectiveness.

[aevogt]

Yes.  When you break through someone's line, by charging just one portion of it, then the you can come at them from the side.  They then either have to deal with the attack (which is now on their flank) or withdraw.

 

 

Of course, this is true only assuming the defenders are not capable of withstanding the assault

 

Still, I just finished rereading TSR and I have to admit, the only two things that kept Emond's Field from being overrun in the final skirmish was their ability to fall back between the houses and the arrival of reinforcements taking the trollocs by surprise. 

 

I just don't think that RJ would have put that scene in KoD without a reason.  And that reason is to send an army to hold the Gap.

[DuDZiK]

One way to avoid being flanked is to form the ol' porcupine formation, where you gather in a circle facing outwards so you can't be flanked.

 

Thats partly what they did in Emond's field, at least I think so. They fell back whenever they were threatening to break in order to keep the line straight, and the farther back they fell the more dense they became and the more they formed an arc or semi-circle.

 

Of course, such a formation makes it almost impossible to escape because you allow yourself to be surrounded, so you'd better make damn sure that you can withstand any force thrown at you else you're screwed.

[cloglord]

She didn't report anyone's presence other than the rulers and the Sisters.

 

...and an accurate count of the miltary forces in Braem wood.  She also detected the  secret presence of at least 10 of the 13 sisters, and visited all four of the camps.  She reported how long they had been there by the smell of the camp, and assessed the food situation of the army.  A very thourough report wouldn't you say, except that she convieniently forgot to mention the presense of one of the 4 living great captains, and the other 6 highranking advisors to the respective rulers of the borderlands.  Kind of an odd ommission don't you think?

 

We did have a mention of him, when they Borderland rulers met.

  We know that he was there, the people of Randland did not.

So, if all the movements of the great captains are reported on, and he went back to Shienar, then we should have heard about that, too, right?  Or do your fabricated conditions only apply to other peoples arguments?

You are right, or course there would be hundreds of reports about Agelmar's secret trip.... ::)  The oddities of the great captains are reported on, it is not news worthy when they are doing what they are expected to do.  If he had disappeared for the last 6 months don't you think it would have been noted by someone?  The absence of the rulers was noted by Pedron Niall before their armies even showed up in the black hills, why has no one noticed that one of the great captains is missing?  On the flip side, if he took a relatively short trip, (in this case to the black hills) and then returned, it would probably not be enough to cause much comment...

 

If anything, the fact that we've heard nothing new since indicates that he's still where he was.  There was no reason for him to be present at Elayne's meeting, and thats the only other time we've seen anything in the Borderlanders camp.

No, it was a SECRET trip, the fact that we haven't heard anything indicates that he's not doing anything out of the ordinary, and the ordinary routine for him is to be hanging out in Fal Dara commanding shienariens.  There was a reason that Elayne might have seen other borderlander nobles, she thinks as much to herself in that chapter, and is relieved that the meeting tent is not full of nobles.  In fact the only noble seen at all, is a shienarien, Lord Kayen Yakota of Fal Eisen who meets her and escorts her to the tent.  Not Lord Agelmar Jagad of Fal Dara, not one of the other 6 notables, some no name, never before mentioned lord of nowhere meets her.  No one, ever once mentions one of 4 great captains being with the armies, not the 4 rulers, not elayne, not merlille, not birgette, not avhienda.  Agelmar Jagad is conspicuously absent.

 

I'm sorry, but I define "support" as a fact or evidence

Well I quess we're just different you and I, you're a dictionary, and I'm a thesaurus.  Oddly enough, I'm aware of the definitions of these words, and I classify them as being synonomous.  I also used the word "support" as the weakest word of the three that fits this definition.  I didn't say it was definitive, absolute, actual, categorical, clear-cut, closing, complete, completing, concluding, conclusive, decisive, definite, determining, downright, ending, exhaustive, express, final, finishing, flat out, last, limiting, nailed down, perfect, plain, precise, real, reliable, settling, specific, straight out, terminal, terminating, ultimate, or unambiguous.

There is as much "support" for the idea that they all spontaneously took a vacation to the Sea Folk Isles as there is for your scenario.

If any of these 7 missing characters had a prediliction for sudden unannounced seafolk cruise vacations I would agree with you, but since it the habit of every one of these individuals to reside in their home country wielding considerable political or military power, I think I'll stick with that.

But its not unsupported.  Unlike your scenario, we've actually seen them with the army that I'm saying they're still with.

In point of fact we have not.  The scene from PoD has references to armies that were brought, but they do not appear with those seven, nor are those seven mentioned specifically as being the leaders of said armies. 

If Lan doesn't take command, then they will be operating without that structure.  Kind of blows Ingtar's speech out of the water.

Yes it blows it clear out of the water,..unless you actually read it.  It specifically speaks to the idea that every single member of the group knows their place within the group.  The clear inference is that, at least within Shienar, every single person knows who they answer to.  That sounds to me like a military structure to me and not "just a bunch of fellas."

 

You're comparing Lan to the head of pseudo-democratic, which he isn't.

No, I'm not, as it is pretty obvious that Lan isn't the head of any government, let alone a federalist republic.  I'm comparing Lan to the comander and chief of an all volunteer military force, which the president of the US is also.

But even that head of state makes sure that there is a tactical chain of command in place, that ultimately answers to him

Which Lan won't have to actively dictate, because it is the established policy of borderlanders on a mission to make sure that they have a clear tactical command chain established on their own.  You may have noticed that boderlanders are pretty self-reliant...

And Reader's Digest has a joke section called "Humor in Uniform", and another called "All in a Day's Work."  Neither has anything to do with analogies.

Yeah, that was a joke.

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

OK

[cloglord]

Woot! Twice argued into submission! ;D  Just kidding, I agree, this has run its course

[wvlr]

I'm still thinking on this and just do not see that big of a problem - as long as Lan picks up a few AS along the way and gets to the Gap a couple days before the Trollocks.

 

Moraine created a wall of fire in TEotW that I would say must have been at least a mile long, probably more.    And Most AS know how to tie off a weave so it would stay for say two weeks OR MORE!

 

I think a circle of three + AS should be able to do the same, the more the better!  Maybe it would take 3 to five of those "Walls of Fire" to Span the entire Gap but once that was done.    No Trollocks would be able to get through.    OR  If they left a single 10 foot gap, LAN's forces along with the AS could pick them off like fish in a barrel.

 

 

What I do not understand is why this was not done in TEotW.  Was Moraine the ONLY AS at the Borderlands at the time?    Surely there were other AS there at the time.    Does anyone have the book?    I can't find mine.

[dyring]

Sooo, shienarians know exaktely who should take orders from who. Possible, even though I think the exakt structure among Ingtars group may have been abit more extreme then what is normaly the case. The circumstances was pretty special.

 

However, do you think that they also know exaktely who should defer to who among all the four countries?

Seems abit odd, that among at the least a few thousand from different countries and comunities, with no set leader for starters should be able to, in short order, agree on who is to lead, who is to be beneath him, and so on and so forth. I mean, sure, the borderlands have been stated as having a dislike for deas´damar(yeah I know, spelled wrong), but wewe also seen times when they still play it. I do not think its gonna be that simple. I would be disapointed if it ended up being that easy to do that.

And then ofcourse, if it worked, all of them would likely try to hand that authority right over on Lan the second he showed up, and just about every time they saw him after that.

 

[cloglord]

However, do you think that they also know exaktely who should defer to who among all the four countries?

Seems abit odd, that among at the least a few thousand from different countries and comunities, with no set leader for starters should be able to, in short order, agree on who is to lead, who is to be beneath him, and so on and so forth.

 

Yes.  Each man would know which lord they owed allegiance to, and the lords would know their relative rank to each other.  Take for instance the scene when Rand entered Carhien after the defeat of the Shaido.  He ordered the nobles from Tear and Carhien to order themselves by rank, and they had no apparent problem doing so in relatively short order. 

[mattswimz]

i'm just coming into this older conversation so this may have been covered...

 

even an old farmer in the borderlands has experience in fighting against trollocs.  we've seen time and again how well-led people who are motivated can deal with trollocs (perrin's fight with his people in the two rivers for example).

 

personally, if al'Lan Mangradoran raises the golden crane, i think anyone with a heartbeat will follow behind him to tarwain's gap.  the numbers don't really matter.  it's that he's there as a bulkhead for mat and bashere, some aiel and some channelers to come in and get their backs when they're about to be overrun.

 

i can't remember who said it but the 13 aes sedai who are with the borderland rulers are most likely black ajah.  they'll capture rand and start to transport him to shayol ghul.  this i totally agree with.

 

this is the second time that perrin needs to be there to save him - the first being the wells at the end of LoC.  how exactly perrin gets there i don't know but he'll probably be heading up towards their area since he's rescued faile.

 

how will moiraine come back... if this has been discussed i'm sorry...

 

mat, thom, and noal are going to get to the tower of ghenji (sp?) and pull her chesnuts off the fire... all those hints in snakes and foxes that mat plays with olver "music to dazzle, fire to blind, yadda yadda yadda iron to bind" - they'll cheat and get her back.

 

it's at that point she'll hook up with perrin w/ mat in tow and free rand from the black sisters.

 

as far as his blood on the rocks - the wound in his side is gonna open up and gush blood galore.

[Sabio]

Moraine is very likely severed and even healed Rand won't recognize her.  Maybe the eyes but that's it.  My guess is she will have to say like the wheel weaves as the wheel wills or something

 

Why would she be severed?  She wasn't channeling when she went in the door with Lanfear.

 

I would think the odds of all 13 of the sisters with the borderland army being BA would be slim.  A few maybe , but all 13 unlikely.

[Tyrell]

Why would she be severed?  She wasn't channeling when she went in the door with Lanfear.

 

Because the evidence suggests that Lanfear was severed and we have nothing that suggests that Moiraine and Lanfear were treated any differently by the 'fin, aside from the fact that Lanfear is now free and Moiraine remains a captive. Which, might possibly suggest that the 'fin killed Lanfear but left Moiraine alive, but that aside we've really got nothing.