the DO is NOT winning

[Shaidar]

The Light

 

This is what the Light has in terms of military potential. I've given them points on how valuable I consider them to be. Each Aiel is probably at least twice as valuable as a soldier than a wetlander. Borderlanders and Seanchan get an extra halfpoint. Warders are tough but few in numbers, as are Ogier. There are 250,000 Ogiers in Westlands - let's assume 10% will fight. Younglings are insignificant numerically. Other numbers based on Westland Armies estimates e.g. http://www.redbrick.dcu.ie/~melmoth/Armies.htm.

 

440,000 Aiel *4

250,000 friendly wetlanders *2

260,000 Borderlands *2.5

250,000 Hailene and Coenne *2.5

150,000 AS armies *2

25,000 Ogier *6

1,000 Warders *10

100,000 wolves *3

 

1.476mn soldiers (4,295,000 points)

About two thirds of them are currently under the Dragon's or his allies' control (including the Aiel shock forces)

 

The Shadow

 

I am including 4mn Trollocs. I think it's safe to assume they are a hunter-gathering society (unless someone's seen intensive food production in the Blight...but I doubt it). Hunter-gatherers are at most ten times less dense in population than settled agricultural societies. Furthermore, I kind of doubt the Blight is exactly a bounteful paradise with lots of edible fish, game and berries. Rought calculations. Westland population is 50mn ppl (it's settled areas are consistent in size with those of Dark Age Europe, when pop was at 20-30mn; however unlike them the Westlands have big cities with hundreds of thousands like Caemlyn, Tear, Illian, Tanchico, Bandar Eban and Tar Valon). So Trolloc population is at most maybe 10mn, since the area of the Blight that is in the Westland-Aiel-Share continent seems to be twice as big as the Westlands. Females don't fight so that's 5mn Trollocs. Some are young, but they mature quickly, so let's assume there's 4mn of them. 1 Myrddraal per 50 Trollocs (in reality probably closer to 1 in 200...but let's be generous with the Shadow, they need it).

 

4,000,000 Trollocs *3

80,000 Myrddraal *20

 

4.080mn soldiers (13,600 points)

 

So numerical odds of 2.8 to 1, value-based odds of 3.2 to 1, in favour of the Shadow.

(Or those currently controlled by/allied with Rand, 1050mnvs4080mn and 3110vs13600, so 1 to 3.9 numerically and 4.4 by value.)

 

(More evidence - the fact that on Shayol Ghul, when Demandred was there, only a few people were waiting to be sacrificed to make the Fades' black blades. They wear out every few months...say 4 months. If that's a typical rate - one sword every 10 minutes, then there's 360 swords in a day, 10,000 in a month, 40,000 Myrddraal. Make that 80,000 as it says the Fades were gnashing their teeth over the fact that their swords weren't being renewed fast enough.)

 

BUT CHANNELERS CHANGE EVERYTHING!!

 

The Light

 

A few superchannellers (Rand, Logain, Nyna, etc). Aes Sedai. Asha'man - though stronger generally, less well trained so I've given them 12 (along with damane) compared to AS 15. Kin are pretty much useless, there's also Windfinders and WO's.

 

10 superchannellers *200

700 mobilized AS *15

600 Asha'man *12

800/1700 Kin *2 (available)

500 damane? *12

300 Windfinders *4 (available)

1500 Wise Ones *6 (available)

 

4410 channelers or *37,500

Around 10SC's, 300ASH, 300AS, 500Kin, 0damane, 50WF, 1500WO are currently under Rand or allies' control, which would make 2660 channelers or *20,300.

 

The Shadow

 

50 Ashas (Taim's buddies), 60 Black AS (possibly less...e.g. 40). I've upped their values because a) they're on average much better trained in fighting than Lightfriends and b) surprise strike from shadows factor which they have. (Albeit they risk being found out). I've given each of the Forsaken 500 because I feel really generous today. In truth this is too high...some like Asmo or Moggy have been worth more like -500 to the Shadow so far. I'm assuming 2% of WOs, WF's and KIn are DF's, so give maybe 50 mobilizable channelers from their ranks of value 10.

 

60 Black Ajah AS *25

50 Black Asha'man *30

10 Forsaken *500

2%/50 of WFs, WOs, damane *10

 

170 channelers or *8,500

 

So numerical odds of 26 to 1, value-based odds of 4.4 to 1, in favour of the Light.

(Or those controlled by/allied with Rand, 2660vs170 and 20300vs8500, so 1 to 16 numerically and 2.4 by value.)

 

IN CONCLUSION by points

 

Light has 20300 + 3110 = 23410 (potential of 37500+4295 = 41795)

Shadow has 13600 + 8500 = 22100

 

SO...

 

Rought calculations show that assuming the Shadow can mobilize efficiently all its forces, it would be about equally matched against the more disorganized Light. It will be predominant in military boots on the ground, but outclassed in the channeling department several times over. However, if the Light can marshall all the forces at its disposal it will become predominant by a factor of two. This is excluding Shara and the mainland Seanchan - with them, full spectrum dominance can be attained. It does seem however that Semmy and Graendal between them have managed to neutralize those giants...

 

Nonetheless, the Light is even in the confines of Westland superior even if the entire Blight was marshalled against them because of channelers aren't only a power in themselves - they are force multipliers. The superchannelers between them destroyed a Trolloc host of 100,000. Imagine what they coud do on a big battlefield, where they are physically shielded by soldiers and can hammer the Shadowspawn all day long! The combined Forsaken will be powerless against them.

 

(Consider also who has all the angreal and sa'angreal. Yes...the Light. )

 

Presumably then the Trollocs will move across the country in bands, coordinating themselves with Draghkar. They will live off the land and converge to destroy big threats (e.g. a human army or fortress). However this makes them very vulnerable to being picked off. Linked Ashaman and Aes Sedai circles could Travel and scour the land off Trolloc bands, protected by an Aiel bodyguard. Possibly they could use Seanchan raken to wreck devastation from above. The only possible obstacle to them would be a Forsaken...but there's few of them.

 

The Shadow wouldn't be able to do the same to the Light's armies - there's too few of them. Not can they provide rapid (instant) trasport to Shadowspawn, because of the inconvenient fact that they die when going thru a waygate. Thus the Light's armies, supported by a backbone of thousands of channelers, can fight in many places at once; the Shadow can't. (Hmmm, makes me wonder how the Shadow actually managed to nearly win the War or Power. Any ideas? Anyway back to topic...)

 

BASICALLY IN A FAIR FIGHT OF SWORDS AND THE POWER, THE SHADOW WILL LOSE. SIMPLE AS THAT.

 

Of course, there's the little matter of the Great Lord Himself. I will admit that I am completely clueless to his full powers and how he could tip the Last Battle. After all, force multiplying the Light's armies via superior channelling aint gonna do much good if they all die of hunger or get consumed by bugs from inside.

 

That's pretty much it.

 

As time goes on, the Shadow's strength increases because the Dark One becomes stronger and his Trollocs more numerous.

 

As time goes on, the Light's total 'capital' gets lower, dissipated by chaos (as happened with Seanchan, the Whitecloaks, etc), although its overall value becomes higher as efficiency increases (via better tactics, gatewaying, possibly Mat's cannons, etc) and a larger percentage of the Light's forces coalesce around the Dragon.

 

The Shadow will unleash Tarmon Gaidon when it feels its power relative to the Light is at the maximum point.

 

Rand should consolidate his forces, capture Tar Valon (can be done in a day with his Ashaman instead of waiting for Egwene's BDSM sessions with Sylviana to end), get the alliance (with border demarcation lines) with the Seanchan and launch a preemptive strike against Shayol Ghul and kick Shaitan's dark ass.

[Thunderbomb]

Im sorry but im pretty sure the Forsaken and other high ranking darkfiends control or influence atleast a good hunk of Rands/The Lights forces,

 

Plus the Forsaken seem to have a problem in dieing anything short of balefire just wont cut it.

 

Plus there is no garuntee that huge Borderlander army isnt being controlled by those Aes Sedai(might be black might not be black) that travel with it

 

Also if Rand took over Tar Valon it would probably cause more chaos and create even more skeptics against the Dragon, also it would take Rand awhile to fully take over the tower even with his Asha'man and probably weaken his forces. Aes Sedai will have to help him so he is right in letting Egwene take it her self.

 

Plus the Forsaken are stronger then the majority of the "Super Channelers" that you specified, plus if they work together as it appears the DO is trying to make them do with the mind traps of Cyndane and Moghedin, they can out power mostly anyone Rand included...Lets just hope they continue their selfish power hungry ways.

 

Though I must admit the alliance with the Seanchen will probably be easier to get now that Mat is married to Tuon but hey we shall see.

 

I cant think of nothing else to add, but I imagine RAW,Mr.Ares,and Luckers will be around soon to pitch in.

 

Ps:I admire all the work and thought you put into this =)

[Majsju]

Sorry, but your numbers are wrong on sevefral groups.

 

Taim has 100 channelers in his little group.

There is no way of knowing for sure, but I'm quite convinced the BA count more then 60 members, even with the latest events decimating their numbers.

 

Since hints are quite strong there will be a confrontation with the Borderland army, they should lose quite a few soldiers before things are settled.

 

Aes Sedai and their two armies will be decimated during the Seanchan attack. As will the Seanchan army.

The Seanchan have lost the ability to reinforce from their continent.

 

And that is not counting the various kinds of sabotage the shadow can do to further decimate the lights forces.

 

As for Rand attempting to conquer the WT, only thing he would accomplish is to guarantee that not a single Aes Sedai would follow him.

[Cybertrolloc]

We also don't know how important matters military are to the Dark One.

 

To riff off the thread title: we won't know if the DO is winning or losing until we figure out what kind of game he's playing.

[Paviel]

Given the sightings of dead people (who are well within the Dark One's domain) and the breakdown of reality at times, and the fact that nobody knows what to do about it, I'd say that the Dark One is winning.

 

Unless and until Rand does something about it, of course. Cue Tarmon Gai'don...

[Luckers]

No offence intended but your numbers seem very off to me, and that source seems like it hasn't been updated in a very long time. Take for instance your assessment of wetlander forces. Arad Domon, which your source dismisses as weake, has a marshalled army of 300,000 in the field right now under Interulde against General Turan.

 

Andor can marshall 200,000, which we know from Elayne's statement that fully Marshalled they would equal the borderlander force, which we know to number 200,000 thanks to Merilile.

 

Cairhein and Tear both number around 150,000 (an estimate based on comments comparing them to Andor--they are the next strongest nations.) Your source includes only an assessmenet of forces in the siege of Cairhein by the shaido ignoring the nobles amassed forces in the greater Cairhienin area.

 

Illian used to be in the Tear, Cairhein triumverate, able to muster 150,000 but we know Sammael increased that raising it to 200,000 or 250,000.

 

The Legion of the Dragon numbered 30,000 by the end of LoC, and based on Taim's ferocious recruitment has probably doubled, if not tripled. Altara and to a lesser extent Murandy were first parcelled out between the Band and the Aes Sedai, and any remaining Altarans would have been absorbed into the Seanchan army. Murandy may still surprise us, the fact that each lord and lady keeps standing forces of their own at all times means that there will still be forces there, forces that have been overlooked due to the overall weakness of the Murandian throne--but remember that is now united under Roedan, and ultimately when united the Murandians prove very effective--so yeah, uncertain. Ghealdin is likewise a blury question, as is the question of what will happen with the Shaido's 100,000 'gai'shain'.

 

In any case, right there amongst the unaffiliated wetlanders is 750,000 forces.

 

Then we have the Seanchan. We know Turan has a little over 100,000 in the field in Arad Domon. Another two armies, one numbering 30,000 and one numbering 15,000 are wandering about in northern Altara. Roughly 50,000 troops are situated around Ebou Dar, and more are setting up a sequence of strongholds into Illian.

 

Based on Interulde's thoughts about the distribution in Tarabon, it seems safe to assume that there are roughly around 150,000 troops in each of the conquered nations. Then we have the forces that the Seanchan have absorbed, which again we know to be significant. Altarans, Amadacians and Taraboners whilst thinly distrubuted, number quite highly. Ultimately it seems likely that the Seanchan can mass a force exceeding 800,000, and possibly as high as a million.

 

Now lets move on to channelers.

 

We know that there are around 950 Aes Sedai world wide. Then there are around 1,000 novices amongst the rebels and another 200 or so in the tower.

 

Wise Ones, we know that each clan numbers around 500 channelers, meaning of those affiliated with rand there are around 6,000 channelers.

 

The Seanchan--Seanchan is much more populace than the mainland, resulting in more channelers, and more sparkers, thus more damane. RJ has also said that because sul'dam remain in the breeding pool, the trait has remained stronger there then here. Ultimately i suspect around 4,000 to 5,000 damane came with the return. Since then they have been taking every woman they find, and we know that those numbers are high. Even with the Great Escape, i would suggest the number of damane falls somewhere between 6,000 and 8,000.

 

Windfinders--ship distribution suggests somewhere around 3,000 windfinders amongst the Sea Folk. Since we have personally encountered more than 300 during the Great Escape, its definately more than 300.

 

The Kin--likely have losses to the Seanchan. Probably around 1,200 to 1,400 now.

 

The Asha'men--getting up near 1,000 these days. Possibly higher.

 

 

 

 

As for the actual topic, there are several things that will influence the shadows strength. For one, we know that the Shadow have been doing their own recruiting of channelers amongst the general populace (Liandrin's comments combined with the fact that they did it before in the Trolloc Wars, and the wonderful enigma that is Taim makes that pretty certain--Taim even mentions it, though he claimed they went nuts, which obvioucly they wouldn't have).

 

Given population we know that there are around 20,000 undetected channelers of significant strength in the greater westlands area. Other than that there are less solid possibilities. Aiel male channelers have been disapearing to the north for generations now, and we know that they can be turned. Recruits from Shara and the Land of the Madmen...

 

Suffice it to say, things are far from set in stone yet.

 

Sorry, this has been a ramble, i have a much more concise version of this somewhere, ill see if i can track it down.

[Luckers]

Hey, dont know if anyone cares, but i found my old thread on the issue. Here it is.

 

http://forums.dragonmount.com/index.php/topic,18520.0.html

[Harmless Bandit]

On a light note, this is a Light vs. Shadow battle, and I get the impression that the Shadow winning is something humans can't imagine, so the Light will obviously win. But I guess it's a 'journey, not the goal that counts' thing.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Its interesting ... Jordan clearly indicates, through various comments in his blog, that the Light is on the verge of losing ... he says, "At this point, boys and girls, the Shadow is winning."  He goes on to compare the situation to a boxing match in which "our boy" is in deep trouble, bleeding, behind, and still facing the worst his opponent has to dish out.

 

(http://www.dragonmount.com/RobertJordan/?p=22)

 

Given what we know, the situation doesn't quite seem to match his assessment ... things aren't all roses and cupcakes of course, but they don't seem that bad.  All I can conclude is that there are some pretty important things that we don't know ... and one of them is this:

 

What, exactly, does it take to break the Dark One free?

 

Until we know that, we really can't assess, accurately, how the Shadow is doing.  I wouldn't put it past Shai'tan to have thrown all of the Forsaken out there as nothing more than a diversion to keep Rand busy while he executes his real plan where we can't see it .... I have a feeling there are some real surprises in store ... and I'm excited to see what they are.

[Mik]

What, exactly, does it take to break the Dark One free?

Why, Shaidar Haran/ Moridin has to persuade the Dragon to choose Shadow over Light, I think.

Then and only then will Shai'tan be completely free and be able to destroy all Creation.

Ishi knows killing isn't near enough. That just buys the Shadow more time (over wich the Dark has no control) to influence the turning of the Wheel more to their advantage for another 'round at the title'. It's all about setting the Dragon up & to manouver him into a position where he gives in willingly. That's why Ishy tries every trick in the book (threatening, promissing, harming, etc.. and why killing is a last ditch effort when events can turn into a major blow to the Shadow in the long run. (like the Cleansing; I'm betting Ishy would have rather killed Rand & waited for the Wheel to spin out the Dragonsoul again then to loose that huge edge).

 

Ta'veren and prophecy is all fine and dandy, but free will is key, IMO.

 

The strongest Soul the Wheel can muster, aka "the Hand of the Creator", aka "The Dragon" aka "Tel Amon", aka "Worlds Heart" has to choose to become "Ba'alz Amon", the Dark Heart and forsake the Light for the Shadow to prevail totally.

 

Chaos helps the Shadow; the more, the better chance the Hand of the Dark has to let our troubled and half-mad Hand of the Creator give in...

Duty might become a tad too heavy then.

Heck, the person who is supposed to shelter mankind even lost a hand. How symbolic.

 

Think about it.

Tel'aran'Rhiod...; World of the Dreams... Tel Amon... Ba'alz Amon.

 

 

It's all there in the prologue, the phropecy (right after the prologue theres a few lines of prophecy) & the first chapter of tEoTW.

So RJ..

 

The first chapter is loaded with hints, looking back;

The story about Eamons Field and eAmon practically meaning "Heart" & "Courage"... his wife felt 'her heart' die... 

Rand saying he's come back to Eamons Field.

Wintersnight, followed by Singing...

I'm betting that old big oak on the ancient stone foundations next to the Inn has a role to play in the aftermath...somehow.

Meh.. I dunno... the first 2 chapters are loa-ded with info on how the series will end.

 

To come full circle...

There are no beginnings or endings in the Wheel of Time.. but it was 'an ending'.  ;)

 

Edit; sorry for all the rambling! As soon as the Dragon gives in, it's game over forever.

[Shaidar]

Sorry, but your numbers are wrong on sevefral groups.

 

No offence intended but your numbers seem very off to me, and that source seems like it hasn't been updated in a very long time. Take for instance your assessment of wetlander forces.

 

Sorry about that but that wasn't the source I used, I linked wrongly. This is the real one...http://www.geocities.com/johnny_nanonic/wot/military.html. 'friendly watlanders' are the Army of the Dragon. The Hailene and Coenne are given as being 200,000 + 55,000. I think the home Ever Victorius Army is bigger than 300,000, but I don't think it's very important at this stage since it seems that it could not be marshalled what with the civil war Semmy provoked there.

 

But yes I agree that source is dated too. However your figures prove the point - the Light isn't as weak as someone like Demandred would imagine, at least not on the surface.

 

--------------------------

 

I wrote that late last night and I've noticed I'm an idiot. I did the calculations wrong.

 

Using my figures, in military the Light have 4,295,000 points, the Shadow 13,600,000 points (i.e. millions, not thousands)! Channelers remain at 37,500 and 8,500 for Light and Shadow respectively. Making channelers insignificant and the Shadow still predominant by a factor of more than three.

 

OK let's make calculation attempt no.2

 

@Luckers,

I'll use your updated figures, if you don't mind, and those of balefired-ed2 and some from http://www.geocities.com/johnny_nanonic/wot/military.html in that order. It should be noted, however, that in most of these cases the figures are potential rather than actual.

300,000 Arad Doman *2

200,000 Andor *2

260,000 Borderlands (they'd have left a home garrison) *3

150,000 Cairhien *2

150,000 Tear *2

200,000 Illian *2

60,000 Legion of the Dragon *3

100,000 ? Murandians *2

100,000 ? Band of the Red Hand, Whitecloaks, etc/misc. *3

=1,470,000, points = 3,360,000

 

440,000 Aiel *4

(800,000 Seanchan. )A discussion. Of those some 250,000 are ethnically Seanchan, but yes, a lot of them are now Taraboner/Amadician/Altaran recruits. So let's assume *3 for ethnic Seanchan (well trained, etc) and *2 for wetlander 'Seanchan' (recently recruited). They all get an extra point for having air support.

250,000 Seanchan *4

550,000 'Seanchan' *3

150,000 Aes Sedai armies *2 (I suspect they're a big higher than 100,000 now)

100,000 wolves *2

=1,490,000, points = 4,910,000

 

So the grand total for mobilizable Light forces in Westlands is about 3million, with points total of 8,270,000.

 

Let's leave the Shadow's armies as before.

4,000,000 Trollocs *3

80,000 Myrddraal *20

 

So 4 million soldiers, points total of 13,600,000.

 

Using Luckers' and others' updated figures, the armies are comparable in size, with the Shadow enjoying a 1.6 ratio in favor of the Light - significant but far from overwhelming.

 

Now moving on to updated channeler's figures. Here the Light's advantage becomes overwhelming. I've increased an Aes Sedai's base value to 50, btw, because it says that 'only the weakest Aes Sedai would fail to be a match for Myrddraal. The others' values will be adjusted accordingly.

 

10 superchannelers *500

950 - 100 Aes Sedai *50

1200 novices *5

1000 - 100 Asha'man *40

7000 - 140 damane *25 (since all channelers are taken, including weakest ones - but specially trained for war) - 2% Dfs, that is, their sul'dam

3000 - 150 Windfinders *15 (all channelers including weakest ones)

1300 Kin *10 - no DF's

6000 - 300 Wise Ones *15 (all channelers including weakest ones) - 5%Df's

(substractions are DF's, novices are conduits anyway)

 

23,360 channelers with 402,250 points.

 

I accept the 100 Asha'man, however Luckers I really do have difficulty accepting 300 Black Ajah. Every third AS?? Really doubt it. At most 100, so let's use that.

 

People complain that DF's can do things like sabotage, etc and that Im underestimating them. I think the critique is unfair. I did after all give Darkfriends higher values to take into account the element of surprise and the fact they tend to be better trained for war than Lightfriends. So I'm multiplying their value by 3 to take this into account.

 

Shadow has

100 Black Ajah *50*3

100 Ashaman *40*3

140 damane *25*3

150 WFs *15*3

300 WOs *15*3

10 Forsaken *500*3

 

Shadow has 800 channelers, and 57,750 points.

 

------------------------

 

As it stands,

 

So the grand total for mobilizable Light forces in Westlands is about 3million, with points total of 8,270,000. The Shadow has 4 million soldiers, points total of 13,600,000. Value ratio of 1.6 in favor of Shadow.

 

Light has 23,360 channelers with 402,250 points. Shadow has 800 channelers, and 57,750 points. Value ratio of 7 in favor of the Light.

 

-------------------------

 

However two more factors need to be taken into account. Firstly, how easy would it be to mobilize these forces? Secondly, as I already noticed channeler's are force multipliers - their armies are worth more. How much more?

 

To be continued...

[RobertAlexWillis]

Think about it.

Tel'aran'Rhiod...; World of the Dreams... Tel Amon... Ba'alz Amon.

 

How can I stand before such logic ...

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

-sigh-

[Mr Ares]

I cant think of nothing else to add, but I imagine RAW,Mr.Ares,and Luckers will be around soon to pitch in.

You put me with those two? *sniff* this is the happiest moment of my life....at least, the happiest that doesn't involve a birth, marriage or death *he said, as Thunderbomb was torn apart on the rack (but survived)*

 

(Hmmm, makes me wonder how the Shadow actually managed to nearly win the War or Power. Any ideas? Anyway back to topic...)

When the Shadow fought in the War of the Shadow, they had armies of Darkfriends (who can go through Gateways) and a lot more Chosen. When they didhave the armies of Shadowspawn, presumably they used the same tactics people have used throughout history, when they didn't have Travelling available (this would work best against armies with no Channelers, so no Gateways).

[Luckers]

No offence Shaidar but i still disagree with your position. I cited a link earlier and that would help understand my position.

[Shaidar]

1. Mobilization

 

The Light has military value potential of 8,270,000. Given a few months of intensive recruiting, much of that can be attained, though most of it will be substandard. (Don't forget that most of those 3 millions soldiers will be untrained conscripts, and in fact I was probably too generous giving them points. But let it stand.) The only forces which can be fully relied upon to stand under pressure are the ethnic Seanchan (250,000), Aiel (440,000), Borderlanders (260,000) and only the core units of the rest of the Westlands (250,000), as well as specific military units like Whitecloaks and Mat's band (100,000). In truth, considering this the numbers revert back somewhere along the lines to my first calculation. I have to give the Westlands a mobilization value of 1/2. This is all assuming that operations like uniting the Tower and alliance with Seanchan go smoothly - a big if.

 

The Shadow has a good internal communications method (Draghkar) and presumably Fades keep tight discipline. So let's give them a mobilization score of 9/10. After taking this into account, in military balance Light has 4,135,000 points and the Shadow has 12,240,000 points. Their lead becomes predominant here by threefold.

 

A similar process is at work amongst channelers. The Shadow is constrained by the fact that their adherents have to remain hidden and are at risk of a Purge (e.g. in the WT), so mobilization value of 1/2. However, the Light's characters are heavily splintered. Only around 700 Aes Sedai will be available if the Tower is united - some will be unhappy with the compromise, others will be scattered around the Westlands, etc. I don't see how the vast majority of Windfinders can be brought into play - most are sailing with their ships, unaware of the upcoming Last Battle, etc. All told, let's give the Light a mobilization value of 1/2 for their channelers.

 

So the Light has 201,125 points, the Shadow has 13,875 points, and the sevenfold Light advantage is preserved.

 

2. Multipliers

 

As I mentioned in my first post, the Light's armies will be much more mobile than the Shadow's due to their ability to gateway. The Shadow will have to move in splintered bands south, or use the Ways. Still, the Light will have a real advantage in speed.

 

Also, any standard grouping of the Light, e.g. of a few hundred soldiers, can expect to have several channelers amongst them. They can protect the unit and vastly multiply its power against a band of similar size without channelers. Similarly, as I said linked circles can scour the land by Travel, eliminating small Trolloc bands.

 

So what I propose to do to calculate this is to make f the military value, g the channeling value and the total value T = h(f+g)+c, where c is a constant. I.e. add up the absolute value of channelers and army, and their 'combined arms value' which is h.

 

What is h? Let's take it as square root of channeling values i.e. 448 and 118 for Light and Shadow respectively. (Though I suspect this is again generous to the Shadow)

 

So for the Light 448 * (201,125 + 4,135,000) = 1,942,584,000

Shadow is 118 * (13,875 + 12,240,000) = 1,445,957,250

 

So on this particular (subjective) analysis, the strengths of the Shadow and Light are equal, though the Light seems to have a useful margin.

 

3. Other Factors

 

Many here have objected that I don't take into account things like turned Aiel channelers and so on. I'll adrress all these here.

 

a) Ang'real and sa'angreal - boost channeling power and we know for a fact that the Light possess 95%+ of them. This is, unlike the Aiel men DF channelers, a fact and not speculation.

 

b) Aiel men, Darkfriend Madmen Islanders, Sharans, etc - fact is there is absolutely no proof at all of thousands of Dark channelers waiting to descend on the world. I'm certain if that had been the case some of the Forsaken would have been in the know, involved in it, remarked upon it in the POV's...but they seem to be driven by confidence in their own and Great Lord's powers.

 

c) Dark infiltrations of Light's institutions. This is the main reason I gave the Dark's channelers a threefold advantage over Light channelers. Yes, they can betray the Light and inflict much damage in this way, but in the end they can only influence things to a certain extent - they can't destroy a Light army on their own, for instance.

 

d) Other dark nasty surprises. Like hordes of jumara borrowing south like in the films Tremors. But again...no evidence for this.

 

e) The Dark One's power. This, as I've already said, is to use Rumsfeld's phrase the great 'known unknown'. As I said, "Of course, there's the little matter of the Great Lord Himself. I will admit that I am completely clueless to his full powers and how he could tip the Last Battle. After all, force multiplying the Light's armies via superior channelling aint gonna do much good if they all die of hunger or get consumed by bugs from inside."

 

---

 

Conclusion

 

These new calculations show that the Light and Shadow are about evenly matched, with the former enjoying predominance in channeling and the latter in military affairs.

 

The Light enjoy a definite advantage in that they possess virtually all the angreal, thus their gross score can be raised by a value of say 1.2 to reflect this.

 

On the other hand, the Shadow might have plenty of nasty unknowns up its sleeves. The most potent of which is the Dark One's power itself. This means the gross value of the Shadow's strength, unlike that of the Light, has a very high margin of error.

 

The conclusion about what Rand must do still stands, though. The Shadow is probably increasing its military power at a much faster rate than the Light (which is hampered by chaos), primarily due to the weakening of the seals in the Dark One's prison. Hence, the Light must take quick action while its chances still look good - at least on paper.

[Shaidar]

@Luckers,

 

No offence caused, but I honestly don't understand why not. For instance, from your old thread,

 

*sigh*. Thats, near as i can tell, the current distribution of forces. I havn't speculated on the number of shadowspawn... but it will more them probably be greater then the forces of the Light... maybe 3 million or more. Likely more.

 

Yep, we agree on that. I've also mostly used your figures for military forces.

 

Channeling Forces of the Light - 15,725

 

Channeling Forces of the Dark - 3,275

 

I feel the Dark numbers, despite still being small, are inflated, but even so, we still agree that the Light is predominant.

 

Given the disparate amount of Dark Channelers, and RJ's insistance that the Light is in a bad way, there are some other possible considerations. ... If these are true, it boosts the number of Dark Channelers to 12,275. A much more even number.

 

Here I disagree since it is all speculation. (Could be true, though.) Plus, I don't like using RJ himself as a source. Here we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

But ultimately, there's still less DF channelers than in the Light.  The military balance is more or less equal, but tilted to the Shadow in your case. In my calculations it's tilting to the Light.

[Guest Dreadlord]

 

i know your on about military for the moment but i think the Dark One is winning on the one-on-one front-i mean look at the injuries rand has taken. hes got 2 wounds that wont heal, one hand missing, his eyes are damaged to a point and he gets ill when he channels. and the dark one hasnt taken any direct injuries at all. it aint lookin good for rand at the mo, thats why i reckon the bodyswap theory is a good one

[eflynn]

At the end of the day, if the DO gets free, I don't think it really matters who has what military forces does it?  If the DO is strong enough to stop the wheel and reshape the pattern, no amount of military force is going to matter. 

 

Also, I still say that it the Dragon fighting for the shadow doesn't automatically = victory for the DO, that's too easy (unless RJ actually came out and said that in which case, I'm a bit disappointed but I'll concede the point).  Too much like Star Wars - The Emperor trying to turn Luke, the Galaxy's last Jedi and best chance to end the war, to the dark side. 

 

I agree with whoever it was that said the fighting is probably important to the DO to cause chaos and stop the forces of the Light from figuring out how to stop him from escaping his prison but the escape of the DO is THE important factor.  Once free, all bets are off.  To see who's winning and who's loosing, I think we need to look at how close the DO is to escaping compared to how close Rand (good thing he IS fighting for the Light) is to stopping him.  At the moment, Rand seems to be taking a beating while the seals continue to weaken. 

 

On the flipside, you guys comparing the forces of the good guys to the bad guys is still pretty interesting. 

[Majsju]

Playing with numbers is all fine if you talk about two armies standing face to face on a battlefield.

 

That is not the situation we have in the books. We can safely assume the shadow have infiltrated every single army out there, as well as positions in society crucial to food and water supplies.

 

The shadow has the ball. They can strike anywhere, anytime. Meanwhile, Rand can't do much other than trying to gather his forces and wait for the shadow to act. He can't just open a bunch of gateways to SG and start pouring out his troops, since there are ways to interfere with gateways, and it would only result in a small portion of his forces facing everything the DO has gathered at SG, inclucing most of the forsaken who knows everything there is to know about using the OP in war.

 

Time is on the DOs side. For the shadow to win, all it takes is keeping Rand occupied long enough to have the DO break free.

[Myyrth]

I think 4 million is a small measurement of the trolloc population.  I would almost double that number 8 million does not seem insignificant.  Regardless of the actual practicalities of supporting a population that size, if the Dark One himself actually can affect the battle...

 

how bout you add a large multiplier for the DO in that equation.

[YoungKing]

Interesting, although I would give the edge in the non-channelers to Rand, just because he has the Aiel.

 

Also, I doubt any real novices will be fighting. If they get the Tower back, I'm sure a lot of the current novices on the outside will be Accepted, but half of them will probably remain and not partake in the LB.

 

Personally I would put the Ashaman over most Aes Sedai, simply because they are trained to kill. A lot of Aes Sedai just talk and study. Provoked, I could see them giving a good fight, but I'd take a young Ashaman over some Brown or White any day. Maybe that's just me.

 

There's still a lot left to happen, but this is a good to think about.

 

YK.

[Saidar]

The Dark One isn't winning but the Light isn't winning either. Look at the champion of the Light: half blind, lost his hand, has and insane man in his head, can't channel without getting sick, has a wound that bursts open every time and has another wound which hurts him a lot.

 

Though times for the Light, I'd say...

[trakand_01]

I think i have been concentrating on it being Rand who will win the Last Battle for too long. Granted he is the Dragon Reborn and is prophecied to do this that and the other, but I wonder whether he is likely, in the end, to be purely a diversion. He has defeated so many of them, learnt so much but what if all that he has learnt has been to get him through this, get him TO TG, potentially to die on the slopes of SG, but no more.

 

If we look at the other characters around Rand, namely Mat and Perrin, with Mat being (in my mind) the most dangerous of all 3 when you take away Rand's ability to channel, I begin to wonder if (like killing Couladin) it will be our young trickster who will finally defeat the DO. he is, after all, a man who despite all his declarations to the contrary, cannot leave a man behind. He simply cannot turn a blind eye to a friend in need, regardless of his own predicaments.

 

Similarly Perrin, although the most distant of the 3 in terms of friendship (again just IMO) seems to find himself (ta'verenness i agree) doing things he declared he would not do. However i dont think PErrin will battle the DO.

 

I think Mat might though.

[Paviel]

All three of them will fight the Dark One somehow. "Cut one leg, and the tripod collapses." (paraphrased)

 

I'd like to see Mat dicing with the Dark One...

 

Anyway, it's pretty clear to me that Rand is going to begin Tarmon Gai'don by shattering the last of the seals, since Egwene had a vision of Rand walking towards Shayol Ghul and crushing the seals underfoot. Then there was Lews Therin's desire to break that one seal...

[Guest Dreadlord]

QUOTE  "Anyway, it's pretty clear to me that Rand is going to begin Tarmon Gai'don by shattering the last of the seals, since Egwene had a vision of Rand walking towards Shayol Ghul and crushing the seals underfoot. Then there was Lews Therin's desire to break that one seal..."   

UNQUOTE

 

that bit about Rand being stood on the black slopes, crushing the seals underfoot, would make such a good scene in a film... i would love to see wheel of time on a DVD set although it would cost billions if they were to do it without letting the series down