Slinky-slank mafia

[TrippedOnReality]

2 minutes ago, Zander? said:

Him calling Dice Town raised some concern for me too not gonna lie.

same.  Like idk if it's just as simple as dice sussed the person i sussed so he must be town, but i feel dice has done the bare minimum at this point.

[Darthe]

Just now, VooDooNut said:

But if we're all wolves, no one has to die, right?

We won’t lunch you if you point us towards an ally.  Ez trade imo

[SinisterDeath]

2 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

I have no idea what to do with this.  Roles are randomly assigned, at least they have been in literally every game I've played that was not gods and demons.

See the above post.

Just because, I the DM in D&D asks if that 13 hits you, doesn't mean I didn't actually roll a Nat 20 and didn't want to TPK everyone 30 minutes into the first game. 😉 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Zander? said:

Him calling Dice Town raised some concern for me too not gonna lie.

So, assuming roles are only ever randomly assigned. Let's say a roll of "1" is wolf.
The chances of rolling a 1 out of 6 is 16.6%.
Rolling a 1 on a 12, is 8.3%. 
Rolling a one twice in a row, 6x12=72, 1/72 = 1.38% chance of Dice being a Wolf again.

That and my gut from his play this time says he's town.

[Clovdyx]

@VooDooNut You said you have no pulse on Verb/Cory/me but all three of us were "probably" town.  Can you elaborate on each of us, especially Cory?

[Zander?]

Just now, TrippedOnReality said:

same.  Like idk if it's just as simple as dice sussed the person i sussed so he must be town, but i feel dice has done the bare minimum at this point.

 

It's not that he reads Dice town its that HE STATED DICE is Town like its a fact or hes worried he implied town read on Dice I questioned and is doubling down?

[SinisterDeath]

3 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

same.  Like idk if it's just as simple as dice sussed the person i sussed so he must be town, but i feel dice has done the bare minimum at this point.

Dice also did the bare minimum last game. Dice wasn't super active until the votes were on em.

[Cory Caboose]

Just now, SinisterDeath said:

So, assuming roles are only ever randomly assigned. Let's say a roll of "1" is wolf.
The chances of rolling a 1 out of 6 is 16.6%.
Rolling a 1 on a 12, is 8.3%. 
Rolling a one twice in a row, 6x12=72, 1/72 = 1.38% chance of Dice being a Wolf again.

 

Does anyone remember how many wolf games @Leelouended up having in a row that one time?

[Zander?]

Just now, Clovdyx said:

@VooDooNut You said you have no pulse on Verb/Cory/me but all three of us were "probably" town.  Can you elaborate on each of us, especially Cory?

 

I havw thoughts on this and you asking this but I'll let it play out 1st. 

[TrippedOnReality]

1 minute ago, SinisterDeath said:

Just because, I the DM in D&D asks if that 13 hits you, doesn't mean I didn't actually roll a Nat 20 and didn't want to TPK everyone 30 minutes into the first game. 😉 

 

no offense, but this isn't D&D and there's something called game integrity.

[SinisterDeath]

1 minute ago, Zander? said:

It's not that he reads Dice town its that HE STATED DICE is Town like its a fact or hes worried he implied town read on Dice I questioned and is doubling down?

 

Just now, Cory Caboose said:

Does anyone remember how many wolf games @Leelouended up having in a row that one time?

Chances get smaller each iteration. Either you have a true random generator, or that generator isn't truly random.

[Zander?]

Just now, Cory Caboose said:

 

Does anyone remember how many wolf games @Leelouended up having in a row that one time?

 

It was double digits wasn't?

[TrippedOnReality]

Just now, Cory Caboose said:

 

Does anyone remember how many wolf games @Leelouended up having in a row that one time?

leelou said 13ish? earlier.

[Zander?]

Just now, Zander? said:

 

It was double digits wasn't?

Verb was prolly trolling Lee lololololol

 

#blameVerb

[TrippedOnReality]

2 minutes ago, Zander? said:

 

It's not that he reads Dice town its that HE STATED DICE is Town like its a fact or hes worried he implied town read on Dice I questioned and is doubling down?

Yeah, I just saw the quote you pulled.

[SinisterDeath]

2 minutes ago, Zander? said:

It's not that he reads Dice town its that HE STATED DICE is Town like its a fact or hes worried he implied town read on Dice I questioned and is doubling down?

Not doubling down.

But while you all are definitely going to lunch me tonight, you all should really pay attention to the people who point fingers and then went to sleep.

Oh, and if my hunches are right, maybe next game you won't lunch me D1 again?
Unvote VooDoo
Vote SinisterDeath

[Darthe]

Fwiw in standard games you’ve got a 25% chance to be a wolf, so the odds of wolfing twice in a row is 6.25%.

[SinisterDeath]

2 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

 

no offense, but this isn't D&D and there's something called game integrity.

lmao
Who's modding the mods?

[Clovdyx]

2 minutes ago, Cory Caboose said:

 

Does anyone remember how many wolf games @Leelouended up having in a row that one time?

 

 

[Zander?]

Just now, TrippedOnReality said:

Yeah, I just saw the quote you pulled.

 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding it but man I know it pinged me real real bad lol

[Zander?]

Just now, SinisterDeath said:

Not doubling down.

But while you all are definitely going to lunch me tonight, you all should really pay attention to the people who point fingers and then went to sleep.

Oh, and if my hunches are right, maybe next game you won't lunch me D1 again?
Unvote VooDoo
Vote SinisterDeath

 

FML

[TrippedOnReality]

5 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

Dice also did the bare minimum last game. Dice wasn't super active until the votes were on em.

 

wasn't he mafia last game?  i thought that's what zander said earlier???

[Darthe]

20 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Hmmm you’re right, I did very clearly do that.  Ty.

 

unvote

Really thought an inexperienced wolf sinister would bite on this post, but he ignored it.

[Zander?]

I hate hate hate hate hate hate fing hate self voting!!!!!!!!!!

[Zander?]

Just now, TrippedOnReality said:

 

wasn't he mafia last game?  i thought that's what zander said earlier???

 

Yes he was 

[SinisterDeath]

Just now, Darthe said:

Fwiw in standard games you’ve got a 25% chance to be a wolf, so the odds of wolfing twice in a row is 6.25%.

As far as we know, there's 1 wolf in this game.
 

  

On 6/30/2022 at 1:55 PM, Sooh said:

10. The mafia team murder is assigned to one player.

12 players.
1/12 = 8.3%.

Last game, 6 players.
1/6 = 16.6%.

The math tracks.

13 games in a row, assuming 25%.
4^13=67,108,864, or 1 in 1.490116119384766e-8....

Either things are truly random or they're not.