Slinky-slank mafia

[Darthe]

Verb's the only other one that would, I think.   

[VooDooNut]

As the game has played out, Darthe has looked more and more chaotic, but I don't think it means Darthe is wolf. I'm hoping it's just Darthe trying to reveal the wolves. It's also very possible Hallia and Darthe are both townies and we are screwed. But it's been a long game, and between the two of them I'm slightly more sus of Hallia, so that's where I would put my vote right now.

 

I see another scenario where the wolves have guided us to this point and it's some sort of weird nightmare where AJ and Tripped and Verbal are wolves, but we can keep going back and forth on this forever.

 

With Darthe/Hallia on the table, I'd go Hallia right now.

[VooDooNut]

13 hours ago, Darthe said:

That requires voodoo to have a rational thought progression.

[Verbal32]

13 hours ago, Darthe said:

Oh hey, verb left earlier when I was trying to talk to him.  I am saving something for just before EOD, so I’d like to hit on it before things come to a close.  Let’s be sure that happens.

I’m in and out today (weekend), but did I not answer your question….aka did I misunderstand what you were asking?

[whiskey delta]

On 7/15/2022 at 8:28 PM, SinisterDeath said:

Last thoughts before I tap for the night. (For realz this time)

I only know for sure I'm town.

It seems very unlikely that Darthe and Hallia are on the same team.

 

I don't think Whiskey and Tripped are the same team, nor do I think Verbal and VooDoo are teamed 

 

Possible wolf teams. 

 

1.

Darthe Tripped VooDoo

Hallia, Whiskey Verbal

 

2.

Darthe, Whiskey, VooDoo

Hallia, Verbal, Tripped.

 

3.

Darthe, Verbal, Whiskey

Hallia, Tripped, VooDoo

 

4.

Darthe, Verbal, Tripped

Hallia, VooDoo, Whiskey

 

If I'm wrong about anti-pairs, then here's every other combination.

 

 

1.

Darth, Hallia, Verbal

Whiskey, Tripped, VooDoo

 

2.

Darthe, Hallia, VooDoo

Whiskey, Tripped, Verbal

 

3.

Verbal, VooDoo, Darthe

Hallia, Whiskey, Tripped

 

4.

Verbal, VooDoo, Hallia

Darthe, Whiskey, Tripped. 

This would be great to revisit when you get the chance. I’d like to know which groups you think are most likely/unlikely from your pov

[TrippedOnReality]

I'm kind of in a dumb spot.  Based entirely on their play, I feel like darthe is more likely to be town than hallia.  I'm just having trouble making  more than one team for hallia.  

 

After reading the stuff with voodoo around hallia on the dice yeet, and then seeing voodoo try to get hallia yeeted again D2 right out of the gate...i just feel that's just not a very likely team.  even more so given voodoo's stance right now.  If he's teamed with hallia, i'd expect him to be going darthe over hallia here.  I just have a really hard time seeing newbie wolf!voodoo trying to bus his teammate 3 days in a row.  Like, is it possible, I guess???  But it just seems like really weird play.  Like the only scenario I can see it making any sense is if it's voodoo/hallia/darthe because they think voodoo/darthe can win without hallia, which seems like the dumbest team combo.  It makes zero sense for mafia!darthe who is basically town cleared to push a yeet on a teammate when he could have push it on literally anyone else who isn't a teammate.  Similarly, voodoo/hallia/AJ doesn't make a lot of sense because I don't think AJ, who was town reading hallia and then flips his read on her to a scum read to push her as a wagon D1 and put her at real risk is ever teamed with her.     

 

Which leaves me with team of hallia/SD/Verb.  Which is ~fine and works as a team, but it means verbal's claim is fake. 

 

I think darthe has had a decent number of interactions with everyone, so outside of Hallia, he could really be teamed with anyone.  if it's somehow Darthe/AJ +1 I'm never going to get there so gg.  I feel like AJ, more than anyone has been actually trying to sort out darthe and hallia, and I felt his big post on D2 felt genuine and I think he's been trending up ever since.  AJ says he thinks verbal is town because of how verbal handled the claim.  If that's true, I'm left with:

 

Darthe/Voodoo/SD

 

It gets a little more complicated if verbal's claim is fake since it would have to be:

 

Darthe/verbal/SD

Darthe/verbal/voodoo

 

Basically, I can make more ~reasonable teams for Darthe than for Hallia, but I feel better about Darthe based on game play.

 

 

 

[Darthe]

15 hours ago, Darthe said:

Right, not quite what I mean.  Do you think that T! Darthe has a good bead on who the remaining wolves are?

Verb here's what I said.

[Darthe]

16 hours ago, Hallia said:

Because I'm town

 

Which would make voodoo not town

 

16 hours ago, Darthe said:

Why would you being town automatically make voodoo not town?

While looking for that I realized Hally never did reply to this.

[Darthe]

11 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

I'm kind of in a dumb spot.  Based entirely on their play, I feel like darthe is more likely to be town than hallia.  I'm just having trouble making  more than one team for hallia.  

 

After reading the stuff with voodoo around hallia on the dice yeet, and then seeing voodoo try to get hallia yeeted again D2 right out of the gate...i just feel that's just not a very likely team.  even more so given voodoo's stance right now.  If he's teamed with hallia, i'd expect him to be going darthe over hallia here.  I just have a really hard time seeing newbie wolf!voodoo trying to bus his teammate 3 days in a row.  Like, is it possible, I guess???  But it just seems like really weird play.  Like the only scenario I can see it making any sense is if it's voodoo/hallia/darthe because they think voodoo/darthe can win without hallia, which seems like the dumbest team combo.  It makes zero sense for mafia!darthe who is basically town cleared to push a yeet on a teammate when he could have push it on literally anyone else who isn't a teammate.  Similarly, voodoo/hallia/AJ doesn't make a lot of sense because I don't think AJ, who was town reading hallia and then flips his read on her to a scum read to push her as a wagon D1 and put her at real risk is ever teamed with her.     

 

Which leaves me with team of hallia/SD/Verb.  Which is ~fine and works as a team, but it means verbal's claim is fake. 

 

I think darthe has had a decent number of interactions with everyone, so outside of Hallia, he could really be teamed with anyone.  if it's somehow Darthe/AJ +1 I'm never going to get there so gg.  I feel like AJ, more than anyone has been actually trying to sort out darthe and hallia, and I felt his big post on D2 felt genuine and I think he's been trending up ever since.  AJ says he thinks verbal is town because of how verbal handled the claim.  If that's true, I'm left with:

 

Darthe/Voodoo/SD

 

It gets a little more complicated if verbal's claim is fake since it would have to be:

 

Darthe/verbal/SD

Darthe/verbal/voodoo

 

Basically, I can make more ~reasonable teams for Darthe than for Hallia, but I feel better about Darthe based on game play.

 

 

 

 

You're missing the solve, but still it's a good post.  The only thing I disagree with is your last sentence.  Any team with me + verb is basically insanity, so no you can't make more *reasonable* teams for me than for hally.  Confirm this with any experienced player in this game, but for that to work would require there to be no other town PRs (near impossible in that scenario), in addition to everything else.

[Darthe]

1 hour ago, VooDooNut said:

I'm glad to see your paragraph above this post, it shows that you can make a post more valid than "idk lol i just do things".  It's not really a post that's doing much for me since the resolution is where most others already are, but still it's good.  I do think you're PoE'd though.

[TrippedOnReality]

3 minutes ago, Darthe said:

 

You're missing the solve, but still it's a good post.  The only thing I disagree with is your last sentence.  Any team with me + verb is basically insanity, so no you can't make more *reasonable* teams for me than for hally.  Confirm this with any experienced player in this game, but for that to work would require there to be no other town PRs (near impossible in that scenario), in addition to everything else.

 

I don't think it's super likely that you+verb is a thing.  I'm not sure why it's impossible?  Can you explain it to me like i'm 5?

[Darthe]

On 7/15/2022 at 7:33 PM, SinisterDeath said:

Not everyone is highly active right now. Could be a ploy 

 

Wolf slip? Or I can't read? Lol

I'd like to share something with you all.  I've been sitting on this for a day and a half now, because it solved the game for me and I really wanted there to be better conversation before addressing it.  Given my spot I know that Hallia is a wolf, so Sinister here dropped us something I like to call a #lock-clear post.  He caught Hally in a genuine slip (to his eyes, I think slips are a bad way to get reads, but still it's important for his slot to look for them at this point) and pointed it out to the chat.  This means they're never on the same team, given he is doing this on lylo in a game where Hally already has a vote on her. 

 

Barring that I'm wrong about AJ (I'll take the L before resolving there), the wolf team is hally/voodoo/tripped.  Been really waiting for you guys to talk about this for literally a day and a half and no one ever did, but I wanna get my real #solve out before any votes come in so it doesn't look OMGUS.

[Darthe]

7 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

 

I don't think it's super likely that you+verb is a thing.  I'm not sure why it's impossible?  Can you explain it to me like i'm 5?

I said it's impossible for the town to not have other power roles.  One of the most positive points in Verb's favor is that we haven't had a cop or a doc claim, and by this point of LYLO they absolutely would've.  I'm not trying to game the mod here, but I think I'm the most experienced mod on DM and I have a real depth of understanding for game balance.  The standard 12p game is cop, doc, 3 wolves, 7 town.  You take away the cop and doc and the win rates for town go down about 15%, per mafiascum discussions that they likely still have on their wiki.  That's an all vanilla game.  Vig's aren't inherently pro-town, they're utility slots.  When you balance around them you accept that you're speeding up LYLO, and that your vig in a vaccuum hits 75/25 town to wolves.  Basically, they introduce swing but half of their utility is as a named townie, and they get stronger as the game goes on.  An odd-night vig is an attempt to keep a vig from having too much control, but it's still a named townie with a swingy power.  So, you'd need another ability.  I could justify a cop or a doc, but I think a JOAT was a cool choice for a game.  It's a little less expected, and a little more exciting in terms of it's potential.  I think that cory likely would've claimed whatever ability he felt confident he used as his actual role, whether it be a cop shot or etc.  

 

Okay, all that ranting is to say, JOAT on its own is a good power role but it leaves the town distinctly underpowered, especially in the late game.  Most JOATs only get 1x of each of their abilities, and you'd want town to not be neutered if they lynch that person or that person gets NK'd early.  After all, in balancing a game your whole job is to keep the win rate 50/50 while introducing more foibles in the intricacy of the game.  Two named townies + a suite of abilities sounds a lot better than 1 named townie and good luck.  

[Verbal32]

32 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Verb here's what I said.

gotcha

 

i agree it’s you or Hallia today, and I’m thinking it’s more likely that you’re town than her (too many variables there to make sense to me)

[Darthe]

Can you take a look at my solve post I made?  I've been really waiting to talk to ya'll about it.  

[Darthe]

Also, I'd like to use it to direct your vig shot.

[Verbal32]

32 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Verb here's what I said.

gotcha

 

i agree it’s you or Hallia today, and I’m thinking it’s more likely that you’re town than her (too many variables there to make sense to me)

[Hallia]

I'll help the process along then

 

It doesn't seem like anything I can say is going to change people's opinions so can y'all get a move on?  I get there Clov was coming from now tbh

Unvote

Vote: Hallia

 

[Verbal32]

I really hate self votes 

[Hallia]

Just now, Verbal32 said:

I really hate self votes 

I do too but I'm tired of having anything i try to say get snarked in by darthe at this point.  Everyone just keeps saying they believe darthe so like

 

What else is there?

[Darthe]

If she were town that would be GG, fwiw.

[Hallia]

You, voodoo, tripped, and AJ have all said that 

A: it's between darthe and I only

B: you all think darthe is villager

 

 

Please tell me the alternative 

[Hallia]

If ShE wErE tOwN🙄

 

I am

[Darthe]

Can you tell your team to hammer you so we can move on?

[Darthe]

56 minutes ago, Darthe said:

I'd like to share something with you all.  I've been sitting on this for a day and a half now, because it solved the game for me and I really wanted there to be better conversation before addressing it.  Given my spot I know that Hallia is a wolf, so Sinister here dropped us something I like to call a #lock-clear post.  He caught Hally in a genuine slip (to his eyes, I think slips are a bad way to get reads, but still it's important for his slot to look for them at this point) and pointed it out to the chat.  This means they're never on the same team, given he is doing this on lylo in a game where Hally already has a vote on her. 

 

Barring that I'm wrong about AJ (I'll take the L before resolving there), the wolf team is hally/voodoo/tripped.  Been really waiting for you guys to talk about this for literally a day and a half and no one ever did, but I wanna get my real #solve out before any votes come in so it doesn't look OMGUS.

Like, I already solved the game.  This is the 5 minutes that the Cav's still have to play despite being down 80-134.