[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

We have a huge amount of time today.

We have a badass vig and Pizza is pretty much lock town.

We have four lynches.

Let's maximize the time, don't lynch until deadline, solve while Pizza is still alive to help us imo.

Without actually rereading yet, my current focus is on: Kaylee, Pral, Lenlo, Cass

And remember, we had competing scum trains on D1. That makes a huge difference in how surviving scum treated the scenario.

Cass · January 8, 2016

Final scum in

Nolder/Pral/Kaylee/Celeste imo

Not sure of the order.

Let's do eeeeet!

Nolder · January 8, 2016

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

I'm going to go with 4.

We've seen 2 goons so far which makes me think the team isn't heavily roled and one just died at night indicating a vig or SK.

So 2 more.

Nolder · January 8, 2016

I have to grudgingly admit that Nomi has been on the right track so far.

I am stubborn so I'm not clearing him but I'll put his lynch on low priority today.

As a matter of fact right now I'm not interested in lynching anyone.

I badly need more people in my village so that's my goal for today and if I manage to resolve the slots then I'll figure out how I feel about the rest of the players.

Nolder · January 8, 2016

Final scum in

Nolder/Pral/Kaylee/Celeste imo

Not sure of the order.

Let's do eeeeet!

Celeste for sure IMO.

And I'd lynch Pral before Kaylee.

Cass · January 8, 2016

We have a huge amount of time today.

We have a badass vig and Pizza is pretty much lock town.

We have four lynches.

Let's maximize the time, don't lynch until deadline, solve while Pizza is still alive to help us imo.

Without actually rereading yet, my current focus is on: Kaylee, Pral, Lenlo, Cass

And remember, we had competing scum trains on D1. That makes a huge difference in how surviving scum treated the scenario.

Yes, yes, yes, yes. I don't yet understand the bold.

Do me a favour and add Nolder/Celeste to your current focus please?

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

^ just stated what was on my mind post-flip. I'm hoping to look at nearly everyone today.

For you, I'm curious on the Zander progression. If you're scum with Salami, you bussed him pretty hard, and you called out Zander straight out the gate for posts that really were scummy. He fought back by simultaneously OMGUSing on you and calling you paranoid for suspecting him. That sounds to me like scum trying to make a town feel nervous and/or stupid. Not a bad look. I have a lot to read.

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

Honestly I'm really tempted to say Zander totally spewed Cass town by continually characterizing her suspicions of him as paranoia. He wasn't just trying to fake a case/defense. He was trying to make her feel stupid for doubting him.

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

LOL! AWESOME

I believe in you Laine. :wub:

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

I think someone needs to let Pizza know he's still alive lololololol

Songstress · January 8, 2016

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Kaylee (1): Celeste

Not voting (9): Shad, Kaylee, Pizza, Laine, Lenlo, Wish, Pral, Nolder, Cass

----------

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

Lenlo · January 8, 2016

[v]Celeste[/v]

Yup. Pizza Lock town at this point. Still think im right on Nolder and Shad. Zander was obv prepping to go at me come morn, so short of some late bus tinfoil im pretty clear. Laine pretty obv town at this point to.

That leaves Kaylee, Wish, Pral, Cass and Celeste

In order of townieness to scummness im thinking this.

Cass

Wish

Kaylee/Pral

Celeste

Id lynch from the bottom up.

Cass · January 8, 2016

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

I'm not opposed to this but I really need to figure you two out.

The vibe I got toward EoD was that Kaylee did a lot to get out of her lynch, and she did it well. This could come from Scum or Town Kaylee IMO. My gut feel later was that she could be scum bussing Csarmi and buddying me once Csarmi started going down (if I've understood correctly, this is in Kaylee's meta and something she does well). It was a strong feel and FWIW if she's the scum this fits with Shad's theory that I'm scum scapegoat in Zander's eyes. There were a couple of things she said that I thought were either indications that she was genuinely more confident that I was Town or buddying me. It freaked me out a little and I backed off to see how she'd respond today. I wish I could trust her, but I don't.

On the other hand, I always read Kay scum. She's impossible for me. She could be Town.

@Penny

I think you're probably Town, but I can't lock you in yet, and I'd feel better if I could.

1. Why are you pulling out Kaylee in particular? IMO he mentioned mind-melding much more noticeably with Laine.

2. What do you make of Nolder, Lenlo, Pral?

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

blue was @ Laine btw

I can see Zander hard bussing GF D1, for sure.

Where are you at on Nolder and Pral?

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

All right. Got a good handle on you now, Cass.

My initial reaction to you made me recalibrate the scum scope a lot until I found a you that I could understand. Fortunately I am a brand of that kind of villager sometimes so it's not completely foreign, or you'd sound all kinds of forced. Hah.

I don't understand what you mean by 'recalibrate the scum scope' but, well, read my wolf games. That's me forced.

Read my previous Town games. That's me more leashed.

If you're INFP like was said in chat, understand my personality as the extraverted version. I'm the same type as Zander. Campaigner/Champion/Possibility hunter. I'm also less experienced and really tired. I'm just getting in early because excitement and Cory threatened I need to make 10-15 posts each RL day and excitement.

You're pretty spot-on with the manic observation, and yep, I'll come down and hopefully be easier to understand.

Re-read complete, and my villager leans are thusly

We're not giving points for everything this time, that leads to runaway (Lenlo) scumreads which are sucky and don't reverse until it's problem. Instead posts which are likely town but more easily faked as scum are 0 with the word town next to it.

Askthepizzaguy (again!)

Cassy +5 initial wtf reaction has been clarified a lot. Yeah blue.

Shad +3 not outside his scum game but much improvement

Laine +2 Not confident but in my top 3

Zander Null points, but +1 overall (Not outside his scum range but I get good vibes)

Csarmi Null points, but +1 good feels

Turin Null points, but +1 good feels

Kaylee Null

Lenlo Null

Celeste Null

Wish True Null

Pralaya True Null

Nolder True Null

Manic Cass is townic Cass. Agree with her self-assessment, Pizza's approach, and just about ready to clear Cass there.

Never played with Pizza before but he lookw to be trying to solve the game and his approach is +EV. Green, I guess?

Think I'm at Shad and Cass as villagers, Pizza and Leno as possible villagers.

I sound genuine/not stressed/manic so I am Town?

Csarmi, I am Town, but you are one who has told me several times you've correctly read me Scum early in other games when others are clearing me for relaxed and happy tone. I don't buy it here.

1. What's different about this game that would make you believe I'm town on manic/unstressed tone?

Csarmi, I am Town, but you are one who has told me several times you've correctly read me Scum early in other games when others are clearing me for relaxed and happy tone - That "Ï am town". Would a townie say that in this context? An annoyed townie would be correcting him, questioning him. Not trying to express that he/she is town out of place.

Regardless of Cass's alignment, the "I am town" bit makes sense in context imo. I can explain why, but I need to know where your head is at here. What leads you to say that Cass is not correcting and questioning Csarmi in this instance?

Celeste · January 8, 2016

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

I'm not opposed to this but I really need to figure you two out.

The vibe I got toward EoD was that Kaylee did a lot to get out of her lynch, and she did it well. This could come from Scum or Town Kaylee IMO. My gut feel later was that she could be scum bussing Csarmi and buddying me once Csarmi started going down (if I've understood correctly, this is in Kaylee's meta and something she does well). It was a strong feel and FWIW if she's the scum this fits with Shad's theory that I'm scum scapegoat in Zander's eyes. There were a couple of things she said that I thought were either indications that she was genuinely more confident that I was Town or buddying me. It freaked me out a little and I backed off to see how she'd respond today. I wish I could trust her, but I don't.

On the other hand, I always read Kay scum. She's impossible for me. She could be Town.

@Penny

I think you're probably Town, but I can't lock you in yet, and I'd feel better if I could.

1. Why are you pulling out Kaylee in particular? IMO he mentioned mind-melding much more noticeably with Laine.

2. What do you make of Nolder, Lenlo, Pral?

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

blue was @ Laine btw

I can see Zander hard bussing GF D1, for sure.

Where are you at on Nolder and Pral?

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

@Cass, Pral needs to talk to me. I'll work from there.

My read on Nolder is based entirely on how I predict his style, attitude, tone, and connection with current trends in the game to be as town vs as scum. He will always do things I find generically pretty scummy as town. I felt really good about him on first read. I compared it to other games and continued to feel good about him. I will repeat this process, probably every day in which the two of us are still alive. He is town for me pending this phase's reevaluation.

Cass · January 8, 2016

^ just stated what was on my mind post-flip. I'm hoping to look at nearly everyone today.

For you, I'm curious on the Zander progression. If you're scum with Salami, you bussed him pretty hard, and you called out Zander straight out the gate for posts that really were scummy. He fought back by simultaneously OMGUSing on you and calling you paranoid for suspecting him. That sounds to me like scum trying to make a town feel nervous and/or stupid. Not a bad look. I have a lot to read.

Straight from the work Cory had me doing during my 50 page 'assign +/-' yesterday, with a specific focus of trying to find villagers/let go of unnecessary tinfoil:

Zander

+++++

?Scum Hunting: looking at lots of people

#67, #156 Questions and gives opinion
#178 sharp observation wrt Nolder’s no commenting, rest meh
#843

- - - - -

#604 Tunnelling
#49, #50, #52, #53 #374, #535 ?Forced/Fake/Not buying

#51 not really convinced there’s a genuine thought process in first burst of posting.
#57 Overjustification
#159 Overly defensive/fake derp
#164 Last part overly wordy/over-defensive, reachy with ‘preconceived notion’ ->MIRROR of SCUMCASS! if continues to be over-exaggerated
Exaggerated #283, #302, #378
#285 disinterested/forced
Reachy #348, 363 (Turin read obv null therefore no lean to improve).
#533
#829 bottom multiquote doesn’t actually answer question. Repeats vague
#853, 854 CASE ON LENNY superficial contradictions, doesn’t recognise/acknowledge I already answered (weird cos wanted to know/watching me closely)

???

#839 - has he actually given specifics on Turin?

#82 corky namedrop, LDO. hmm. overly concerned or just trying to clarify?

#168 ?buddying??

Basically, you're hitting the nail on the head. My progression with Zander went like this.

That felt awkward, call it out.

Zander over-reacted, he's coming at me hard. I don't trust his tone.

Zander is doing a lot ITT and I am not. I get misunderstood a lot as Town. Maybe he does too. Maybe I'm wrong on him. Maybe he's actually trying to figure me out. Why don't I buy that he's not trying to figure me out? He's playing scum like I do, at the core of it anyway, with volume x1000000000000000000.

I backed off because

i)there's no way I compete with that volume and Zander was never getting lynched D1;

ii) IF Zander was Town, the two of us were going to tinfoil each other into oblivion and me picking on obscure little things that struck me because I thought I knew how he should react were going to be a waste of time. It would just get him out of kilter and have him tunneling even more on me. We were never trusting each other this game.

That was yesterday.

TBQF the stuff he just posted WRT Lenlo almost had my brain convincing me he was maybe Town and to put him aside a bit today. It also has me tinfoiling on Lenlo/Celeste, which I hate.

Shad_ · January 8, 2016

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

I like red from you. Shows you're thinking and paying attention.

Celeste · January 8, 2016

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

I like red from you. Shows you're thinking and paying attention.

That's pretty much my D1 if people want me to provide some facts later on with my gut reads.

Celeste · January 8, 2016

I need to look into Turin a bit more. I believe a clue could be in his posts. I'm on my phone though.

Sooh · January 8, 2016

MOD NOTE:

Setting deadline for Monday morning because 48 hours would be Saturday night, and 1) weekend... and 2) I am trying to do morning MST deadlines for my comod's sanity.

Feel free to hammer early if this deadline is too long for your taste.

:wub:

Askthepizzaguy · January 8, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5st0b3ln5U

Cass · January 8, 2016

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

I'm not opposed to this but I really need to figure you two out.

The vibe I got toward EoD was that Kaylee did a lot to get out of her lynch, and she did it well. This could come from Scum or Town Kaylee IMO. My gut feel later was that she could be scum bussing Csarmi and buddying me once Csarmi started going down (if I've understood correctly, this is in Kaylee's meta and something she does well). It was a strong feel and FWIW if she's the scum this fits with Shad's theory that I'm scum scapegoat in Zander's eyes. There were a couple of things she said that I thought were either indications that she was genuinely more confident that I was Town or buddying me. It freaked me out a little and I backed off to see how she'd respond today. I wish I could trust her, but I don't.

On the other hand, I always read Kay scum. She's impossible for me. She could be Town.

@Penny

I think you're probably Town, but I can't lock you in yet, and I'd feel better if I could.

1. Why are you pulling out Kaylee in particular? IMO he mentioned mind-melding much more noticeably with Laine.

2. What do you make of Nolder, Lenlo, Pral?

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

blue was @ Laine btw

I can see Zander hard bussing GF D1, for sure.

Where are you at on Nolder and Pral?

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

Oh Penny, what am I going to do with you??

1. Ok, good point. Why is this enough to vote? Have you got anything else?

2. Give me examples of how Pral's play feels scummy to you. Explain as much as you can.

While we're at it, please find me some examples where you've cracked under pressure when Town.

If you're Town, I feel I intuitively get you now. I can't fully trust that yet though, I haven't seen all of your content and I haven't seen you scum :P

@Cass, Pral needs to talk to me. I'll work from there.

My read on Nolder is based entirely on how I predict his style, attitude, tone, and connection with current trends in the game to be as town vs as scum. He will always do things I find generically pretty scummy as town. I felt really good about him on first read. I compared it to other games and continued to feel good about him. I will repeat this process, probably every day in which the two of us are still alive. He is town for me pending this phase's reevaluation.

Ok for now. I have some concerns half written. I'd be interested to see your take after you talk to Pral.

Where are you at on Kaylee?

Askthepizzaguy · January 8, 2016

I couldn't finish ISOing Zander last night.

a) I had seen enough

b) I was tired af

c) Sooh was going to bed and I wanted cuddle tiems

d) I was kinda hoping a vig would shoot Zander so I wouldn't have to continue

Good shot, vig. That was never a SK because a scum went down already, outed doctor, the scums would shoot the doctor, so you know you have a free shot on obvious townies like myself.

Ergo, we have a lock clear vigilante.

Askthepizzaguy · January 8, 2016

Assume a godfather, and/or roleblocker.

There's no way the scum team has less than this.

[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

Recommended Posts

Archived

Stay Connected

Forum Topics

News items

About Dragonmount

Twitter

Facebook